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What now for Judith?

Written By: - Date published: 7:28 am, December 8th, 2020 - 51 comments
Categories: act, david seymour, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, Politics, polls - Tags:

The latest Colmar Brunton poll results have been released just in time to get the summer BBQs firing.  And the results would not have pleased Judith Collins.

They reinforced the election result.  Labour was up to 53% and the Greens and ACT matched their election result and were on 8%.

National was on 25%, which will be of concern to them.

But most importantly support for Judith Collins as preferred leader has taken a hit with support for her dropping 8% points to 12%.  The election solidarity is over and National supporters are saying what they think.

Chris Luxon appeared in the rankings at 2%.  At some stage in the future, barring misfortune, he will become a threat to Judith’s reign.

Winston Peters and John Key both scored 1%.  Clearly a very small minority yearn for yesteryear.

To emphasise what a complete vacuum of leadership the right currently have David Seymour polled at 4%.

But Jacinda Ardern was totally dominant with her leadership being preferred by 58%.

What does National do?  Sit it out for a couple of years and wait for the political tide to change?  Or panic?

The results of the summer’s BBQ season ought to appear early next year.

51 comments on “What now for Judith? ”

  1. Sabine 1


    Who cares?

    Seriuosly, who the fuck cares about that women? She dead, done, will never be more then she is today.

    Question, what are we not supposed to talk about today? The fact that our unemployed can't pay rent and eat on their 'benefits'. The fact that we have more and more unhoused, homeless, in a ditch living people cause fixing housing is too hard to do? The fact that there will be hundreds if not thousands of families that will line up at the mission or the sally army for a ham sandwich and a Santa from a dollar store, cause government and its precious kinder and gentler leader can't give a fuck?

    [There are plenty of posts on this site criticising the Government for not going far enough quickly enough. We are also allowed to note National’s problems – MS]

  2. Robert Guyton 2


  3. Stephen D 3

    My popcorn futures are looking good.

    ps Thanks to Lprent for sorting out the reply function on iPads.

  4. Andre 4

    When does Puckish get let out of the cage?

    • Sabine 4.1

      Also this, and all the others that got tossed in the lead up to the selection of the current overlords

      • weka 4.1.1

        this year's election was notable in that there weren't that many long, get them out of the way of the election bans. But I think there are a number of people freed up this month.

        Re PR, all he had to do was make an abject apology to the Sysop and there would have been no ban.

    • Andre 4.2

      (it's October 2021: hopefully JuDarth will still be around so we can all enjoy the ensuing comedy)

  5. JanM 5

    I hope she stays as National leader for a loooong time as Chris Luxon may reactivate the sleeping Nat vote with the possibility of another round of John Key type hero worship. Eeeek!

    • tc 5.1

      She'll be there till the replacements ready, Luxon's got parliamentary ropes to learn if it is to be him.

      The media show how owned they are by not asking the obvious questions:

      why are you still there given 'your' election campaign, polls since the election show it wasn't a one off and are you still the best national can offer NZ ?

  6. Stuart Munro 6

    There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;

    Omitted, all the voyage of their life. Is bound in shallows and in miseries.

    Judith's tide was gazumped by Key.

    • Hanswurst 6.1

      More's the pity. Nasty though she may be, Collins actually seems to have values and stand for something, in contrast to Key. Whe might have had an actual ideological debate in NZ, instead of the anodyne, soft-right vote-chasing that has characterised NZ for the last decade-and-a-bit, and continues to do so.

  7. Tricledrown 7

    No more nagging doubts about Collins her baggage is to much for even National supporters her vicious glare can't be covered up by her false smile.

    Hollow woman how much longer can the party make excuses no one in National likes losers no losing leader has survived except Bill English who is their only 2 time loser.

    Time is is rabidly running out for JC and her 2and coming.25% is 19% below JK's polling average.

  8. Adrian Thornton 8

    Well if Labour continues on their current trajectory as so aptly described in Trotters last piece….”The problem, of course, is that keeping conditions stable and certain for the middle-class more-or-less obliges the Government to refrain from implementing policies likely to produce significant improvements in the condition of the working-class. Most especially, it obliges Jacinda Ardern and her colleagues to do next-to-nothing for the poorest and most vulnerable members of the working-class. Improving their lives would simply be too costly. It would require precisely the sort of new taxes and tax increases that Labour has already ruled out of contention.” ..then it is very conceivable that a backlash could occur in New Zealand as in the USA after the disappointment of Obama which directly led to Trump…maybe just maybe if Collins steers a reasonably steady ship her time could come yet?

    Here is a link to trotters piece, it is well worth a read…

    The Last Thing Working-Class New Zealanders Need Is “Stability And Certainty”.


  9. Enough is Enough 9

    What a ridiculous time for the national broadcaster to run a poll. On what planet would anyone, on either side of the political spectrum, expect anything to have changed from election night.

    What purpose did that poll serve?

    Also there is no person in New Zealand who could front National right now and have a better poll result than last night. Jacinda is in her prime. She has unprecedented popularity where any criticism of her is shouted down very quickly. If I was in National I would simply say lets spend the next 12 months quietly planning our next campaign, and lets not discuss leadership or Jacinda.

    There is a tsunami of issues that need to be dealt with next year, and she has the mandate to pass whatever legislation she desires to deal with those issues. Child poverty, housing and unemployment are the big three.

    • mac1 9.1

      What purpose did that poll serve?

      Observer answered that question under another post, yesterday's daily review. It confirmed the election result, and destroyed the tactical Nat voter myth.

  10. gsays 10

    In answer to what Judith does, she stops trying to shore up her position as leader with the conservatives in her caucas by opposing drug testing at festivals.

    She needs to recognize that the staunch conservatives are a dying breed and their votes are being enticed by Act, New Conservatives etc.

    Realise we are 1/5th of the way thru a new century and 1950s politics don't cut it any more.

    If the Nats are still at 25%, regardless of her popularity with the crusty old brigade in the party, she will be rolled.

    • gsays 10.1

      And, after hearing her pronounce Urewera on te radio this morning, a Te Reo course wouldn't go amiss.

  11. mac1 11

    If I was in National, for twelve months I'd be looking at a disastrous election result, confirmed by a recent poll. I'd be looking at what went well and what went badly, and apply the AA prayer, by changing what can be changed, acknowledging what can't, and being humble enough to ask for enough wisdom to know the difference.

    • lprent 11.1

      I'd be looking at what went well and what went badly, and apply the AA prayer, by changing what can be changed, acknowledging what can't, and being humble enough to ask for enough wisdom to know the difference.

      Looking at the results of the board and presidential elections in National – I wouldn't look for that to happen any time soon.

      Politik had a interesting article on that in late November "Shaking up the Nats" (not sure how firewalled it is).

      His guest while he was saying this was Grant McCallum who has National in his veins.

      His father was a prominent member of the party, and he joined while still a student in 1982. Since then he has gone on to serve a term on the party board and chair every Northland campaign since 2005.

      But over the weekend at the party’s annual general meeting he failed in a bid to win election to the board; a bid which was intended to challenge the party president and to underline his belief that if National wants to win back its lost voters, even those like Andy Thompson, it desperately needs to get more in touch with the electorate.

      He was, as he puts it, the change candidate, and that he was so roundly rejected has sent shockwaves through the party, particularly its liberal wing.

      A former candidate emailed POLITIK: “Depending on your perspective, it was either a fantasy or the second act in a National Party horror “show”, following the election campaign’s first act.”.

      McCallum is a liberal which may, at first sight, seem unusual for a Northland dairy farmer who chairs the party’s Primary Production Advisory Group.

      A clue to why comes when he defines what sort of person the party should be selecting as a candidate.

      “If we if we turn up with a suite of candidates and a list that looks like me, white stale, pale male, then I’m afraid we’re not going to get elected to much,” he told POLITIK.

      “We’ve got to reflect New Zealand society, and we’ve got to challenge our delegates to think about that.

      “It’s really important that when you are thinking about who you pick, you’re picking someone that’s going to reflect the New Zealand that your children or grandchildren might be part of.”

      McCallum emphasised the need for change in candidate selection in his run for the board.

      There is quite a lot more in that article. But I think that is the crux of what I see. Summed up by this towards the end.

      But at the end of the day, he lost, and the party re-elected president Peter Goodfellow. Throughout the weekend, Goodfellow focussed on his fundraising abilities and apart from a bizarre speech on Saturday suggesting all sorts of conspiracies did not address the substance of the election campaign.

      The commentator and author of the party’s history, Colin James, argues that National is at its best when its two wings; its conservatives and liberals are in balance.

      They are not at the moment.

      The National party has always been a coalition between some quite different political trends. This goes all the way back to its coalescence between the remnants of the 19th century Liberals and the rural party Reform – which were pretty conservative and populist.

      However the current group of conservatives in National feel different to me. Probably as much as anything else because of the culture wars that are spilling over from elsewhere in the world especially the US.

      Much more nutbar than has been usual during my lifetime. Much more prone to believing absolute shit. And even when they don't believe it – are like Goodfellow or Collins having the personal moral backbone of political weasels – they figure that others will believe shit (and the ends justify the means). The philosophy of a Cameron Slater.

      Personally they just make my skin crawl. They also make me want to exert effort to help trip them up.

      • Shanreagh 11.1.1

        However the current group of conservatives in National feel different to me. Probably as much as anything else because of the culture wars that are spilling over from elsewhere in the world especially the US.

        Much more nutbar than has been usual during my lifetime. Much more prone to believing absolute shit. And even when they don't believe it – are like Goodfellow or Collins having the personal moral backbone of political weasels – they figure that others will believe shit (and the ends justify the means). The philosophy of a Cameron Slater.

        Personally they just make my skin crawl. They also make me want to exert effort to help trip them up.

        Judging by the splatter of MPs leaving prior to the election the NP seems to have attracted a type of person who is ethically and morally bereft. It was not always so.

        If they do not clean themselves up they will not perform as a good opposition should and with the large majority in the house for Labour this is crucial in our democracy.

        I too want to get out there tripping the Nats up.

        I also want to put a bomb under Labour to spend some of its capital and do something that is innovative, creative, out of left field in a way. The sooner they do the big deeds then the sooner all the 'hoo-ha' about it will be over. Had I been advising the Govt I would have advised spending up large with innovative and creative acts prior to Christmas so any opposition inside and out of Parliament would be blunted over the Christmas break.

        Or the other way would be to seed all sorts of small innovative policies across a wide area. So one of mine would be that regenerative farming would be a core- or pre- requisite in all farming degrees/institutions.

        So a big footed, bomber, that's me.

      • mac1 11.1.2

        This is a long reply, but it is my reaction to early criticism of this newly elected government, and my own criticism of National. I share your distaste of what National has become. We should remember what the alternative is, even if we disagree with what Labour is doing.

        As we all do disagree, or will do; with something at least, such is politics.

        Phillip ure will probably dismiss this as 'incrementalism' but I offer this view for debate.

        When we look at how the National party could be, as a party of the centre right and what it is now, when we consider the quality of many of their candidates, when we consider the ethnic makeup of their parliamentary candidates and MPs, then we can see just how short they fall.

        This shortfall and this conservative rightist tendency for me presents problems.

        Firstly, in a single chamber government we need a decent opposition- with decent policy and views, decent as an effective voice for minority representation, decent as a check upon a possibly autocratic government.

        Secondly, those with a rightist tendency themselves can be autocratic. A National party with this tendency for autocratic action will be impoverished as an opposition and in government.

        Thirdly, these rightists may well be the doctrinally dominant faction of the National party if and when they return to power in the future.

        In this case, being a unicameral government, such a return of a conservative government could easily sweep away changes made by a former reformist government,

        There is a debate taking place in the Standard at the moment as to how radical and change-making this Labour government should be.

        This government could act alone. But, it will need allies in the future to support it in a centre-left government. Some commenters seek more change than the centre can support. That change would easily be reversed as it was in FPP times.

        Now, under MMP as it usually functions with at least one full coalition partner, progressive change is slower as it requires negotiation and agreement from other parties. We will go back to that system of full coalition partners in the near Parliamentary future.

        The question for me is how we cement in as much change as we can that carries majority support that will guarantee that change survives a new government.

        The question of housing and the measures needed to address these issues, is a major case in point. The PM in the House today talked about a 70,000 shortfall in housing left by National. Large measures are necessary but have to be either radical and short-term effective, and/or be acceptable to a voting majority to be longterm.

        The news today announced that the percentage of home owners has fallen as low as that in the fifties. Maybe, with that knowledge that housing is such a major issue, that public opinion will tolerate the measures that would be best used to address housing supply and affordability.

        To institute measures of long-term significance and efficacy that are not acceptable to the many will mean those changes will be retracted with a change of government, or even perhaps with a continuing Labour government but by a necessary partner who would block or change these measures.

        This government must in that sense be stable, just as the first Labour government was stable for fourteen years yet wrought major social change.

        Even that change, accepted as it was, ended with the new National government changing the Labour housing policy into one only accessible to our poor. That then was in turn downgraded into a housing policy that did not even house all the poor.

        We must not forget our aspiration and hope. We must not forget also that politics is the art of the possible.

        We walk a tight rope between the possible and the desirable.

        • Phillip ure

          @ mac1..

          a few thoughts re yr comment..

          re what will national become..?…I see them as having to swallow the green medicine…to have any hope of validity again..

          and of course we do not only have the choice of national and labour..the maori party and the greens are also there to shore up any support drop for labour..

          and re yr fears of govts overturning what the previous government has done…this usually doesn't happen..labour hasn't renationalised the power companies…key didn't end working for families or kiwibank..and of course labour governments never reversed what shipley/richardson did to create the poverty we now have..did they..?

          and really..all that many are asking is for j.ardrrn to do what she promised us she would do..

          and is addressing poverty/housing the homeless..'radical'..?..really.?

          is that where we are now..?

          this government has just filled the coffers of the richest new zealanders with billions of taxpayer-money..

          but we can't afford to address what blights us ..

          to protect our weakest..

          once again…really..?

          and yes..as you noted…you are presenting the incrementalist p.o.v..

          • mac1

            Thanks for the reply, Phillip ure. I will think about it and seek other opinions as well.

            • The Al1en

              Given how the vast majority of votes seem to go to centre parties, unless there's an unforeseen balance shift either way, incrementalism is the only realistic pathway to change in the current political climate. The trick is to keep making sure it tacks left while bringing the middle with you.

              If a wind change is gale force obvious, that will be reflected by the politically expedient, so when the clamour is there, so will be the policy.

              Not as sexy as revolution but what the toy throwers and dummy spitters always fail to see is, you can only play the game in front of you with the pieces on the board.

              • Louis

                To the Al1en, you nailed it.

              • Enough is Enough

                I disagree

                Roger Douglas didn't make minor incremental reforms. He knew he had a small window to completely restructure the economy. So in about the time that Jacinda has now been in charge, he got on and did it.

                His reforms have essentially stayed in place for 35 years.

                Now is the time, with an absolute majority to reverse those disastrous reforms and rebalance the economy, at exactly the same speed that Douglas did.

                Fuck incrementalism. We have no idea what the next parliament will look like so now is the time to do it.

                • The Al1en

                  If you want to cite the 9 years of tory governments that followed Douglas as proof dramatic changes work in the best interests of left leaning policy, that's fine, but long gone are the days of a weighty socialist left, especially in labour and certainly in the large majority of voters, so the point about the current political climate and shifting the centre leftward remains.

                  • Enough is Enough

                    The clock is ticking. The Tories will be back, just as they were after 9 years of Clark's incrementalism.

                    And when that happens we will be in the same position we were in 2008. Some nice things had happened during the previous 9 years, but Rogernomics remained the status quo.

                    • The Al1en

                      That may be true, but Clark's incrementalism pulled the centre leftward and has been touted as her political legacy, which meant key could only follow and only go so far right without scaring away the soft centre, which will probably happen next changeover, unless the nats campaign on a radical policy platform and storm through.

                      Ultimately a swift end to the effects of rogernomics will only come when enough voters demand it. There are three options: 1. Start a new left wing party that campaigns and wins a majority on it. 2. Get involved with labour and push for change from inside. 3. Vote green and hope enough labour voters switch side.

                      I suppose there's a fourth option – Complain daily on blog sites and see if that works (hint, it hasn't in the time I've been commenting here).

                    • Enough is Enough

                      Well that s a great defeatist kind of attitude. Lets not do anything transformational because we might upset swing voters.

                      If that is the case why vote Labour at all, if they are not going to do anything that might upset people who are otherwise inclined to vote for the Nats.

                      Lets not whinge that they are doing nothing. Lets just accept that is the way it is and smile.

                    • The Al1en

                      I realised long ago how 1, 2 and 4 were pretty pointless, but that doesn't change the fact labour will govern on what they campaigned for, and clearly that's what the majority of the country are happiest with. They, like most parties in power who want to stay there, won't stray too far policy wise from the known hymn sheet.

                      You're free, of course, to whinge at whatever you see fit, but surely a basic knowledge of how the system works in reality will help you contain your disappointment and focus efforts in voting and getting others to go green.

                • Shanreagh

                  Agree EiE.

                  The Douglas changes were sold (in Cabinet) as part of a two pronged idea. First the assets sales then the work to get aspects such as improved housing, welfare, jobs, education on the go. The latter was what Lange was hanging out for, and it was rumoured at the time, was the only reason he supported the sell-down of assets.

                  As we know the wide boys got in everywhere.

                  Any stopping of the juggernaut was only through the NZ Maori party taking court cases etc to stop them, as a Treaty partner.

                  Then the cult of managerialism.

                  These things ran in clamouring and we did not have a chance. Needless to say the housing, welfare, jobs, education were not looked at except through the lens of less govt, separation of functions (sometimes very petty), constant restructurings

                  I would favour a reversal of many of the wasteful neolib practices.

                  If not a reversal this close to Christmas, then a commitment to look at and change, while keeping any good bits. If we concentrate on the human side we could:

                  Counter the energy breakup with all those power companies running around – fix prices

                  Look at employment, anything that allows an employer to play fast & loose eg zero hour contracts, ludicrous split shifts. A quick look at the reported employment cases will give an idea of what could be looked at.

                  Look quickly at doing away with punitive welfare ideas that punish people who dare to live with someone.

                  • The Al1en

                    That's all great, but zero chance of happening without the government having the mandate to do it. If they campaigned on it, sure, change the system, but they didn't so they'll stick with their manifesto, which seems like more of the same and maybe a little bit more – Sadly, that’s what people voted for. Yes they have the numbers to do it if they pleased, but they know electorates don't like unannounced policy being enacted in to law, which is why they won't even act on the dope issue with a margin of less than 2% in play.

                    If the greens had a substantially larger share of the poll total then that’s the kicker labour needed to head left faster, and if they had 50% there would be no argument against change as that’s the will of the people.

      • Patricia Bremner 11.1.3

        Thank you Iprent, @ 11.1 my thoughts expressed so succinctly, especially the "skin crawl" bit. They have proved to harbour political evil, as exposed by Nicky.

  12. Corey Humm 12

    The colmar before the election had National on 31% a 6% margin of error compared to their real result. Why is TVNZ still using this company after 2017 and this election. Also considering they always over poll National their real result is probs about 20-23%

    Regardless it is quite meaningless other than it proves that people didn't vote labour to keep the greens out of cabinet, they voted for a labour govt so this government can drop Nat pandering to a certain extent and be a little bolder. Those numbers are eventually going to drop whether labour uses it's political capital or not and I do worry about the future of the party and the public mood and voter turn out in general if the transformational govt is just a softer nicer kinder continuation of the previous four govts. I have hope but Disappointment leads to bitterness. I hope the govt is able to meet this challenge of balancing the concerns and needs of all while preparing for the future, because if it's not there may be people who never vote again and the idea of people voting labour for change would be a joke to many if this majority govt can't do it. Fingers crossed it works out

    It also proves acts on the rise, it wasn't a fluke and they are going to ride the anti woke free speech wave all the way to market with incoming hate speech legislation being a potential circuit breaker for act if the govt isnt careful not to allow the hate speech conversation to be taken over by overzealous people whose interpretation of what is and isn't hate speech would scare many on the left and the right and start a culture war like we've seen overseas that only benefits the right, so that is something the govt will have to be careful to balance evenly what needs to be done vs not overstepping into full censorship , I suspect that being a full on seabed/foreshore/"anti smacking" level fiasco if not done correctly.

    Great to see the Maori party on 2% and Greens holding steady. While I worry about the potential worst possible outcomes stated above I'm hopeful that none will come to pass because our leaders have hopefully learned from events overseas!

  13. ken 13

    Just slip away quietly and don't don't make a scene.

  14. Muttonbird 14

    JuCo blaming everyone else but herself. What a surprise. This is why so many people dislike her.

  15. mosa 15

    But Jacinda Ardern was totally dominant with her leadership being preferred by 58%.

    Kiwi's are so dumb that they will back someone who is just there for the limelight and has never has an original idea in her life but kindness will majic away all the evils that threaten them.

    Ask the guy in the street that voted Adern and can tell you three policies she promised to enact.

    Keeping them safe from covid that would be it.

    An historic MMP Majority the first since 1996.

    What a wasted opportunity to do something, anything that reflects what the Labour party used to stand for and why it was created in 1916.

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