web analytics

What was it about that Herald poll?

Written By: - Date published: 5:24 pm, July 29th, 2008 - 20 comments
Categories: flip-flop, john key, polls - Tags: ,

Should Labour be worried about today’s poll in the Herald which contrary to other recent polls showed the gap between the parties rising? Colin Espiner doesn’t seem to think so, suggesting:

I wouldn’t take much notice of the Herald DigiPoll. This one’s even worse than the last one. It was taken over THREE WEEKS and interviewed just 770 people. Most of the major polls are of 1000 people are taken over one week. Three weeks is simply too long to get a meaningful result. The DigiPoll is also an ‘omnibus’ poll – ie political questions are thrown in alongside stuff like what brand of soap powder you buy. The DigiPoll is showing the gap between National and Labour widening when four other polls with bigger sample sizes taken more recently have shown it narrowing. I don’t think this poll is worth the cover price of today’s Herald.

And in case you missed it, he said some interesting things about Mr Key’s about face on supporting  Working for Families too:

National has long said it wouldn’t change the basic structure of WFF, of course, but it had dropped hints that it was considering alterations to stop this middle-class welfare creeping quite so far up the income scale. Key has said many times that he considers this to be a disincentive to work, that middle-income families should be paying less tax in the first place rather than getting a handout, and that the ‘one size fits all’ approach of WFF wouldn’t work.

In fact, back in 2004, Key called it ‘communism by stealth’ and opined that ‘it didn’t work very well in Eastern Europe and it won’t work very well here’…

There is one danger for National in all of this, though, and that’s that it inoculates so many policies that voters begin to wonder whether there really is any point in changing governments at all. If the policy differences disappear then it really does become a straight horse-race between Helen Clark and John Key. If Key is shown up by Clark during the campaign, National has absolutely nothing else to offer besides slightly bigger tax cuts.

20 comments on “What was it about that Herald poll? ”

  1. Anita 1

    The gender split in the Herald poll is bloody impressive though.

    National

    Female: 49.6%
    Male: 60.6%

    Labour

    Female: 37.5%
    Male: 24.7%

    It’s hard to know whether the gap is real (assuming genders polled equally through the three weeks), or skewed in the same way (assuming more of one early and filling the other quota at the end).

    It doesn’t feel wrong tho.

  2. Likewise Auckland vs the rest. It is quite possible for the poll to be “out” overall but for these categories to be reasonably indicative of how the these categories are split.

  3. Anita 3

    Jafapete,

    Yeah, I was really surprised by the Auckland vs the rest too.

    Hasn’t the Herald been showing a huge regional difference all year? Suddenly this poll no real difference at all in the National and Labour percentages.

    What gives?!

  4. Normal service resumes I see.
    it is rogue I tell ya… Rogue.

  5. randal 5

    NOBODY reads the Herald down this way and furthermore if by chance they do they dont believe a word of it. it comes from aukland you see

  6. Hey Bill – if Labour wins again will you leave New Zealand?

  7. jbc 7

    Bill, ‘sod’s suggestion is not such a bad idea. You can then get to enjoy NZ as a holiday destination at your leisure. It can be surprisingly good.

    You become a subject of the Ministry of Tourism (Economic Development) instead of a target of Inland Revenue.

    Best of all though: following NZ politics and rogue polls (such as the subject of this thread) is much more tolerable when you don’t have to suffer the consequences.

  8. Have been trying to leave for nearly a decade Rob. Family and circumstances have conspired to keep me here. I fear age and my health are against me now. The only place that can provide political theatre to the same high standard as here is the UK. Unfortunately my country of birth is now over run with mussies and pikeys, so can’t go back there.
    Anyway, i wonder what tomorrows Dom Post will serve up for the daily winston cabaret?
    Did anybody else think he might have been drunk in parliament today?

  9. burt 9

    Hey Bill – if Labour wins again will you leave New Zealand?

    It will lift the average IQ in both countries. Ha ha ha ha – I’m so funny.

    Winston eh, the man who’s party has been using a secret trust to get around declaring donations from big business. Is there a sequel to the Hollow men planned? Perhaps it could have pictures of Winston on both covers, it’s one way to show both his faces. Filthy Labour-led govt has been doing what it supporters accuse National of… bet they think it’s OK when Winston and Labour do it?

  10. ak 10

    “mussies and pikeys” Bill?

    and relapse burt? or just drunk again?

  11. burt 11

    Hi ak

    One day I’ll be surprised when you address me with some substance, I’m not holding my breath.

    I’m also not holding my breath for Winston to explain how he reconciles his rhetoric over National and their secret trusts and the EFA and I’m also not holding my breath for supporters of the Labour-led govt to call for Winston to resign. It was apparently appropriate for Brash, but I guess Brash wasn’t integral to the Labour-led govt.

    Have a nice night.

  12. burt 12

    Winston voted for retrospective validations because the electoral laws were confusing and other people also got it wrong as well.

    He’s having no trouble being sure of himself over this use of the electoral law. I guess some sections are confusing and some are just dam convenient. Guess that’s the way it goes when lawyers are free to judge their own indiscretions under laws they wrote for their own advantage. But hey Winston has the confidence of Helen Clark (who’s govt depends on him).

    Bananas anyone?

  13. John 13

    It is pretty simple. The Herald has decided they want a National government and damn the truth they plan to make it happen even if it means dodgy polling. The question is, what has John Key offered them? It has to be more than getting Audrey Young’s brother elected.

  14. RedLogix 14

    The question is, what has John Key offered them?

    Re-open the $120m plus GST tax loophole that Dr Cullen closed on them?

  15. The Herald-Digipoll is a strange one. The Herald is openly committed to a National win in the elections. That could not be more clear. Their newspaper’s news copy is – right down to what light bulbs we use – is shaped around “Labour government = bad”….ad National wins by default.

    The editorial in the Herald today was giving Key a hard time for not being radical enough.

    What more needs to be said?

  16. Razorlight 17

    This is one reason why the left will be out of government in only a few months time. Rather than listening to the message coming from the media they simply dismiss it as Tory propaganda. In fact unless the media praises the Labour government it is dismissed as low brow media hacks not having the intelligence to understand what a great job is being done by the government.

    Get off your partisan high horses and accept that the media reflects the opinion of many New Zealanders. Rather than arrogantly dismissing their messages try working out why they and 50%+ of the public is not happy with Labour and wants a return to a National led governmant.

    Simply claiming they are Tory hacks is not going to win you this election.

  17. infused 18

    Well said Razorlight. That really is their problem. Also, they keep dismissing it. I think this is what pisses the public off more. Labour cannot accept the public don’t like them.

    I find it bizarre to be honest. I think if they just sat down and listened this election would be a different story. But no, they just try to piss the public off more.

    Labour = We know whats best

  18. BeShakey 19

    I suspect that given the small initial sample size the (already large) margin of error, would be huge once you roughly halve the sample size to get to the male/female level. I suspect thats the reason the Herald is happy to report the results but not so keen to report something that would tell you how huge the MoE is.

  19. Razorlight: We hear the media just fine. They mount a campaign to save dimmer switches and slag off the government for saving 277megawatts in peak power demand (half of Project Aqua)…..while failing to pick up a story that the numbers on the employment benefit are the lowest in 30 years….as 17,456.

    Bad news about labour is fine – even if you have to make up.

    Good news isn’t printable(lowest unemployment in a generation)…or has to be turned into bad news (dimmer switches).

    The message is VERY clear.

    Are you sure you’re hearing is OK?

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Strengthening the relationship with India
    The Foreign Minister says an historic visit to Aotearoa New Zealand by the Indian Foreign Minister provides an opportunity to strengthen the relationship in areas like people to people exchanges and climate action. Nanaia Mahuta today welcomed Minister of External Affairs Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar with a mihi whakatau ceremony and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    36 mins ago
  • Prime Minister’s Christmas Card Competition
    It’s that time of year again! If you’d like to help design the Prime Minister’s official Christmas card, here’s how to take part: Draw, paint, sketch or craft an image you’d like to see on the front of this year’s Christmas card. It can be anything you want – ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Construction starts on Taranaki’s largest ever roading project
    Associate Minister of Transport Kieran McAnulty was joined this morning by Ngāti Tama, local councillors and board members, project representatives, and community to mark the official start of construction on Taranaki’s largest ever roading project, Te Ara o Te Ata: Mt Messenger Bypass. “The work started today will make sure ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Hundreds to benefit from additional maternal health support
    The Government’s Budget 2022 investment of $10.1 million over four years in maternal mental health will result in better and more widely available care for new and expectant mothers around the country. The funding will be invested to fill gaps in care identified by last year’s maternal mental health stocktake ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Planting forests that are good for nature, climate, and the economy
    Public consultation opens on how forests are managed through the National Environmental Standards for Plantation Forestry (NES-PF), including: Giving local councils more control over where forests are planted   Managing the effects of exotic carbon forestry on nature Improving wildfire management in all forests. Addressing the key findings of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Trade Minister heads to CPTPP Commission Meeting
    Minister for Trade and Export Growth, Damien O’Connor will travel to Singapore this week for the Sixth Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) Commission Meeting. “Continuing to build on our export growth is a key part of the Government’s economic plan. Our two way trade with the CPTPP bloc accounts ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strong Government books leave New Zealand well placed amid global challenges
      Deficit half of forecast at $9.7 billion; Deficits as a percentage of GDP running better than during GFC Net debt at 17.2 percent of GDP lower than Australia, UK, US and Canada. Core expenses $2.8 billion lower than forecast. Increased expenditure during year due to COVID-related expenses through unprecedented ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Ministers outline next phase of Milford Opportunities Project
    The Milford Opportunities Project is entering its next phase following a productive visit to Piopiotahi to hear directly from tourism operators, iwi and the unit undertaking feasibility planning, says Conservation Minister Poto Williams. In June 2021 Cabinet approved $15 million to fund the next stage of the Milford Opportunities Project, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Digital tools to make family violence support widely available
    Associate Minister for Social Development and Employment Priyanca Radhakrishnan has officially launched a suite of new digital tools to support people affected by family violence. “Family violence is a scourge on our society and violent behaviour of any kind is absolutely unacceptable. We are taking the important steps to modernise ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Plan for big boost in GP training numbers
    More support is being given to New Zealand medical graduates training to be GPs, as the Government continues its push to get more doctors into communities. “Growing the number of GPs is vital so we can fill today’s gaps and make sure we’ve got the doctors we need in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • 142,000 Kiwis helped by Healthy Homes Initiative
    Hospitalisations reduced by 19.8 percent School attendance increased by 3 percent Employment increased by 4 percent 100,000 interventions delivered, including insulation, heaters, curtains and repairs Nationwide rollout expected to be complete by the end of the year More than 31,000 children, pregnant people and 111,000 of their family members are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Minister of Defence departs for Middle East
    Minister of Defence Peeni Henare has today departed for the Middle East where he will visit New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel deployed within the region, including in Operation Gallant Phoenix in Jordan and the Multinational Force and Observers mission on the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. The Minister will also undertake ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government funds work to clean up six contaminated sites
    The Government has announced funding to clean up six contaminated sites to reduce the risk to public health and protect the environment.    “These six projects will help protect the public from health risks associated with hazardous materials, so New Zealanders can live in a cleaner, safer environment.” Environment Minister David Parker ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government partners with industry to reduce agricultural emissions
    New Zealand’s effort to reduce agricultural emissions has taken a step forward with the signing of a memorandum of understanding by Government with agribusiness leaders, in a joint venture as part of the new Centre for Climate Action on Agricultural Emissions, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor announced. The Ministry for Primary Industries signed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Vosa Vakaviti sustains generations of Fijians
    The enduring strength and sustainability of Vosa Vakaviti is being celebrated by the Fijian community in Aotearoa New Zealand during Macawa ni Vosa Vakaviti – Fijian Language Week, which gets underway today. “This year’s theme, ‘Me vakabulabulataki, vakamareqeti, ka vakaqaqacotaki na vosa Vakaviti’, which translates as ‘Nurture, Preserve and Sustain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand condemns Russia’s annexation attempts
    New Zealand condemns unequivocally Russia’s attempts to illegally annex Russia-occupied regions of Ukraine, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says. “We do not recognise these illegal attempts to change Ukraine’s borders or territorial sovereignty,” Jacinda Ardern said. “Russia’s sham referenda in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are illegitimate, and have no legal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government provides confidence to those seeking an adventure
    With our borders opened and tourists returning, those seeking out adventurous activities can do so more safely due to the steps we’ve taken to improve the health and safety regulatory regime for adventure activities, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Michael Wood has announced.  “We are seeing international visitor numbers begin ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New hospital opens for Wellington children
    A new children’s hospital that officially opened in Wellington this morning offers the region’s children top-quality health care in one place, Health Minister Andrew Little says. Te Wao Nui has been built with a $53 million contribution from benefactors Mark Dunajtschik and Dorothy Spotswood, with the Government contributing another $53 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • More single-use plastics banned from tomorrow
    Single-use plastic cotton buds, drink stirrers and most plastic meat trays are among single use plastics banned from sale or manufacture from tomorrow. “This is the first group of the most problematic plastic products to be banned in a progressive phase out over the next three years,” Environment Minister David ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to NZDF Command and Staff College
    It’s a pleasure to join you today – and I extend a particular welcome to Marty Donoghue (a member of the Public Advisory Committee on Disarmament and Arms Control) and Athena Li-Watts (interning with me this week) who are also joining me today. On the face of it, some ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Milestone of half a million mental health sessions delivered
    The Government’s flagship primary mental health and addiction programme Access and Choice has hit the milestone of delivering more than 500,000 sessions to New Zealanders needing mental health support. Health Minister Andrew Little made the announcement at ADL – Thrive Pae Ora in Cromwell which provides mental wellbeing support services ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government continues to future-proof arts, culture and heritage sector
    The Government has announced further support for the recovery and resilience of the arts, culture and heritage sector as part of its COVID Recovery Programme’s Innovation Fund. “We’re continuing to secure the recovery of our arts, culture and heritage in Aotearoa New Zealand by supporting transformational initiatives across the motu,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government steps up kauri protection
    The Government is delivering on an election commitment to protect kauri in our northern forests through the new National Pest Management Plan (NPMP) for the forest giant and the allocation of $32 million of funding to back the coordinated effort, Biosecurity Minister Damien O'Connor and Associate Environment Minister (Biodiversity) ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Russia’s Ukraine referenda a sham
    Aotearoa New Zealand does not recognise the results of the sham referenda in Russia-occupied regions of Ukraine, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta says.  “These so-called referenda were not free or fair, and they very clearly were not held in accordance with democratic principles,” Nanaia Mahuta said. “Instead, they were hastily organised ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt invests in New Zealand’s wine future
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has officially opened New Zealand Wine Centre–Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa in Blenheim today, saying that investments like these give us cause for optimism for the future. Funding of $3.79 million for the Marlborough Research Centre to build a national wine centre was announced in 2020, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Appointment of Judges of the Court Martial Appeal Court
    Attorney-General David Parker today announced the appointment of Colonel Craig Ruane, Commander Robyn Loversidge, and James Wilding KC as Judges of the Court Martial Appeal Court. The Court Martial Appeal Court is a senior court of record established under the Court Martial Appeals Act 1953. It is summoned by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government strengthens measures to combat migrant worker exploitation
    Offence and penalty regime significantly strengthened New infringement offences for non-compliance Public register of individuals and businesses that are found guilty of migrant exploitation New community-led pilot to educate migrants workers and employers of employment rights Implemented reporting tools successfully brings exploitation out of the shadows Take-up of protective visa ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Livestock exports by sea to cease
    The passing of a Bill today to end the export of livestock by sea will protect New Zealand’s reputation for world-leading animal welfare standards, Minister of Agriculture Damien O’Connor said. “The Animal Welfare Amendment Bill future-proofs our economic security amid increasing consumer scrutiny across the board on production practices," Damien ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Extra measures to increase census turnout in 2023
    3500 census workers on the ground, twice as many as last census More forms to be delivered – 44% compared to 3% in 2018 Prioritisation of Māori and other groups and regions with lower response rates in 2018 Major work to ensure the delivery of a successful census in 2023 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Shining the light on screen workers
    Improved working conditions for workers in the screen industry is now a reality with the Screen Industry Workers Bill passing its third reading today, announced Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Michael Wood. “It’s fantastic to see the Screen Industry Workers Bill progress through Parliament. The new Act will strengthen protections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Mental health resources for young people and schools launched
    Associate Minister of Education (School Operations) Jan Tinetti and Associate Minister of Education (Māori Education) Kelvin Davis have today launched two new resources to support wellbeing, and the teaching and learning of mental health education in schools and kura. “Students who are happy and healthy learn better. These resources ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Progress continues on future-proofing Auckland’s transport infrastructure
    Transport Minister Michael Wood has welcomed the latest progress on Auckland’s two most transformational transport projects in a generation – Auckland Light Rail and the Additional Waitematā Harbour Connections. Auckland Light Rail and Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency have named preferred bidders to move each project to their next phase, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government supports local innovation in homelessness prevention
    Ten successful applicants in round two of the Local Innovation and Partnership Fund (LIPF) Close to $6 million allocated as part of the Homelessness Action Plan (HAP) Māori, Pasefika and rangatahi a strong focus Round three opening later this year with up to $6.8 million available. Government is stepping up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More medicines for New Zealanders, thanks to Govt’s Budget boost
    Health Minister Andrew Little is welcoming news that two more important medicines are set to be funded, thanks to the Government’s big boost to the country’s medicines budget. “Since coming into Government in 2017, the Labour Government has increased Pharmac’s funding by 43 per cent, including a $71 million boost ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government delivers ACC change to support 28,000 parents
    The Maternal Birth Injury and Other Matters Bill passes Third Reading – the first amendment to ACC legislation of its kind From 1 October 2022, new ACC cover to benefit approximately 28,000 birthing parents Additional maternal birth injuries added alongside new review provision to ensure cover remains comprehensive Greater clarity ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further cuts for East Coast tarakihi limits to rebuild numbers faster
    Commercial catch limits for East Coast tarakihi will be reduced further to help the stock rebuild faster. “Tarakihi is a popular fish, and this has led to declining levels over time. Many adjustments have been made and the stock is recovering. I have decided on further commercial catch reductions of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Ambassador to Colombia announced
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta today announced the appointment of diplomat Nicci Stilwell as the next Ambassador to Colombia. “Aotearoa New Zealand’s relationship with Colombia is fast growing with strong links across education, climate change and indigenous co-operation,” Nanaia Mahuta said.  “Trade is a key part of our relationship with Colombia, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 3000 more RSE workers to ease workforce pressures
    The Government continues to respond to global workforce shortages by announcing the largest increase in over a decade to the Recognised Seasonal Employer Scheme (RSE), providing 3000 additional places, Immigration Minister Michael Wood and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor have announced. The new RSE cap will allow access to 19,000 workers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Sanctions on more of the Russian political elite
    Further sanctions are being imposed on members of President Putin’s inner circle and other representatives of the Russian political elite, as part of the Governments ongoing response to the war in Ukraine, says Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta. “Ukraine has been clear that the most important action we can take to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Principal Youth Court Judge appointed
    Judge Ida Malosi, District Court Judge of Wellington, has been appointed as the new Principal Youth Court Judge, Attorney-General David Parker announced today. Born and raised in Southland, Judge Malosi graduated from Victoria University of Wellington and spent her legal career in South Auckland.  She was a founding partner of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago