web analytics

What will happen with the specials?

Written By: - Date published: 9:31 pm, November 9th, 2008 - 25 comments
Categories: election 2008 - Tags:

There are about 240,000 special votes still be be counted. That’s about 11% of the vote in total. Special voters include large numbers of students and late-enrollees, which tends to favour the Left. Last election, Labour and the Greens together took 45.8% of the first count and 51.4% of the specials, ending up with 46.4% in total. National took 39.63% of the first count, 34.6% of the specials, equalling 39.1% of the total.

If the parties get roughly the same ratio of their prelimary vote to their special vote as last time, Labour and the Greens will end up getting about 46% of the special votes, National 40%. I’ve run the official St Laguë calculations for this scenario: both the Greens and Labour would take a seat from National.

That’s not enough to change the result, of course. National/ACT would be a majority of 62 seats (63 with Dunne) in the 122 seat Parliament.

25 comments on “What will happen with the specials?”

  1. gobsmacked 1

    Last time National lost a seat, and the Maori Party gained one (so the overhang was reduced).

  2. Oh you’re right. Of course it wasn’t from Nat to Lab, if it had been they would have been level on 49 on the night.

  3. ken 3

    I’m sorry you guys lost. The special votes will make no difference as they tend to be cast by people who can afford to be away from home. And that ain’t South Auckland.

  4. Graeme 4

    ken – specials are also cast by people who enrolled after writ day.

    Those who may be away may have more of a tendency to vote early (which is counted on the night)

  5. Graeme – I know it’s not gonna happen but if the specials tipped it back and Key had already been sworn in like he wants to be for APEC, what would happen?

  6. ken 6

    Well, Helen and Michael are gone … so Lord knows what the special votes would be voting for. Wow, imagine being a special voter who learns afterwards that what you voted for buggered off a nonosecond after the result.

  7. Felix 7

    ken you’re embarrassing yourself. Special votes are not cast later, they’re just counted later.

    I think it might be past your bedtime.

  8. QoT 8

    Seriously, ken? Everyone I know who cast a special vote a) lives in Wellington Central and b) is a young leftie who was travelling and had already planned to be away before the election was called. Not to even mention the fact that it’s all spelled out for you right there above your snide little comments that special votes do favour the left.

  9. ken 9

    Well, lets see if it makes a difference shall we?

  10. ken 10

    Oh, and Felix, where did I say special votes are cast later? I didn’t.

  11. deemac 11

    ken: it’s where you say “Lord knows what the special votes would be voting for” which makes no sense, since they were cast at the same time as all other votes;
    you seem confused (that’s me being polite)

  12. ken 12

    No, just saying that what they voted for is no longer there. Nothing “confused” about that.

  13. tsmithfield 14

    I guess we will find out the truth about the specials soon enough.

    However, I think a fair point is that since there was a substantial swing towards National in the general vote, it is highly likely that this swing will be represented in the specials also. Therefore, I don’t expect that the special votes will favour the left to the same degree as they did last time. Therefore, the benefit to the left is unlikely to be as great as previously.

  14. Bill 15

    Safe to say, the result will stand. And with Labour looking for a new leader, a nice distraction is in the offing while policy is rolled out.

    So the question is: What comes first?

    90 Day Bill? Troops to Afghanistan when Obama asks? Crime legislation? Privatisation of services?

    Whatever (unpopular) policies are first…and I’m guessing they will come thick and fast while people are distracted…where is the nascent grassroots resistance from which widespread opposition can flower?

    If we look to the US we see that efforts are being made to build a mass movement in order to force Obama to come through on the hope he has generated and rode on his way to the Whitehouse.

    But here, it seems to me that popular dissent was contained and stifled during the Labour terms. All gains came through, what might be termed, professional lobbying, whether from the unions or elsewhere. It didn’t include ordinary people in any meaningful way or encourage their ongoing participation.

    So gains, such as four weeks leave were ‘handed down’ rather than fought for; which makes such gains hard to defend because no personal investment was made in their coming about.

    Starting from scratch, in terms of building a meaningful inclusive social counterbalance to unpopular Government policy is hard and takes time. I humbly suggest that time is not something we have much of.

    We simply cannot rely on unions and the like to pressure the Government and win concessions as they have done for the past nine years. We need to do it ourselves if we want to be effective. And the tradition of people exercising their democratic muscle on the street or elsewhere seems to have disappeared in the NZ context. (There are examples such as the foreshore and seabed protests which can be pointed to as contradicting what I’ve just said, but single issue or one off examples of resistance do not make for a tradition…they don’t build on the past and offer little or no foundation on which to build going forward.)

    Am I the only one thinking like this? Does anybody want to engage in a discussion focussed on putting useful frameworks in place should the worst come to pass? Or is everyone happy to sit back, give JK and the Nats the benefit of the doubt and run the risk of being caught off-guard when the policies start coming?

  15. Janet 16

    Someone in the Dompost today says that the specials tend to vote Green or go with the prevailing mood so could favour National.

    On the other hand there are a lot of people voting overseas who are very proud of NZ because of Labour and Helen. I have heard from many overseas NZers this weekend and none of them could understand why NZ chose to change direction politically as we has such a good reputation internationally..

    This election seems to be a classic case of Labour voters staying home and it was the lowest voter turnout in decades – only 77% which is disgracefully low for NZ.

    So who knows what will happen with the specials. – personally I hope they go Green.

  16. Robinsod

    First, the GG is unlikely to appoint Key if the specials were likely to be material.

    Secondly, if he was appointed and the specials suprised us such that they made a difference, then Key would be required to resign if he could no longer command the confidence of the House. The GG’s reserve powers would come back into play and we’d be in a new round of government formation. Until then, Key would remain PM in a caretake capacity.


  17. fiona 18

    I agree that now is the time to continue ‘campaigning’ and organising. One avenue for this is the Labour Party at grass roots level. In my electorate (as in the one I lived in previously), LEC activity is largely limited to candidate selection, fundraising and campaigning. I would like to see all LECs becoming more proactive at reaching out to new members and encouraging people to become involved in a meaningful way.

    LECs should be educating members about Labour policies cf National policies, and getting the word out so the crap peddled by National and the media during the last Campaign does not get accepted so readily by voters.

  18. So if National do lose two MPs on specials then it would be Aaron Gilmore (56) and Cam Calder (58) who go right? (57 is Nikki Kaye who would Akl Central)

    And Labour would get Judith Tizard back…

  19. Bill 20


    First up. Nice to see I’m not the only one.

    I want to make an observation on your comment.

    You say:” I would like to see all LECs becoming more proactive at reaching out to new members and encouraging people to become involved in a meaningful way.

    LECs should be educating members about Labour policies….”

    If I read you correctly, the result of the quote above would be some new Labour Party members who, I assume you hope would be pro-active in a broader context than at present. That’s all fine and good. I’ve no problems there at all.

    However, implicit to your comment is a suggestion that Labour and or Labour activists would be elevated to some pre-eminent position within any protest movement. That’s dangerously counter productive in my opinion.

    My explanation goes something like this. Any attempt by any constituency (with all the best intentions in the world) to raise itself above other constituencies, or to subsume the broader resistance under it’s own brand will, firstly, drive those people who do not ascribe to (in this case Labour) away in their droves. Secondly, it would narrow any analysis or comment to the extent that it fitted with Party lines….a ‘many people, one voice’ scenario. Next comes infighting and factionalism as a battle is fought over what or whose party line should be adopted by the broader community of resistance.

    Far better to accept that many people will involve themselves for a whole variety of reasons and put structure in place that safeguards their distinct viewpoint. . Allow all views to be expressed (even contradictory ones) and therefore become as inclusive as possible. (Many people, many voices)

    The Labour Party and every other constituency can express their view …but only on their own behalf, not that of the broader movement.

    A successful movement of resistance or protest ( one that can grow and flourish) has to recognise the diversity present within itself and not attempt to curtail that diversity. It has to organise itself in such a way that the structures put in place to aid different constituencies in working together simultaneously makes any attempt by any grouping to seize the high ground and project itself as the whole rather than as a part, impossible.

    I’ve been involved in enough grassroots protest to understand that the drive by some to command and control the whole shebang and meld it to reflect their own distinct agenda, is the death knell for any protest or movement.

    And I don’t mean all that to sound negative. It’s important though in he context of broad movements…a subtlety too many ignore, deliberately or otherwise

  20. OOB 21

    So about 9% green specials to get Kenny Graham in
    not that that matter as Jeanette will probably step down later next year an Ken will be in anyway.

  21. fiona 22

    Bill, no doubt there will be many avenues for organising and protesting. I would like to think that the Labour Party (as opposed to caucus) might be part of that. There is the possibility for genuine debate within the Party. My experience of the Party is that there is much opportunity to improve the effort to reach out to new people, and to debate ideas and policies. Perhaps because it has been in government so long, the Party seems to be very much driven by the caucus arm, but that is surely not a given.

  22. Bill 23

    “no doubt there will be many avenues for organising and protesting.”


    However, the trick is to have activity that feeds into and reinforces a greater whole; that empowers individuals and all groupings, rather than fragmented or isolated flare-ups that may or may not improve the profile of a particular grouping or org before fading away with little or no legacy left behind for others to use and build on.

  23. Phil 24

    And Labour would get Judith Tizard back

    Oh yay

  24. And Labour would get Judith Tizard back

    Not if Labour only wins one seat. Damien O’Connor is ranked next.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

No feed items found.

  • Government to deliver family carers $2000 pay rise, expand scheme to spouses this year
    The Coalition Government is delivering this year the changes to Funded Family Care the disability sector has long-asked for, says Associate Minister of Health Jenny Salesa. “Today we are announcing the details of our big changes to Funded Family Care, including an annual average pay boost of $2,246.40 for funded ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • Ko te reo kua mū: Piri Sciascia
    Minister for Māori Development Nanaia Mahuta joins te ao Māori in their sorrow as they learn of the loss of one of the great orators and spokespersons of a generation – Piri Sciascia.  “The son of Pōrangahau was a staunch advocate for Māori development and served his people for over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Minister opens new ecosanctuary at Cape Farewell
    A new ecosanctuary with a predator proof fence on Golden Bay’s Cape Farewell, which will restore a safe home for sea birds, rare native plants, giant snails, and geckos, was officially opened today by the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “There has been a fantastic community effort supported by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Pacific partners work together to provide additional support to Australia
    The NZDF continues to support the Australian Defence Force (ADF) as it battles fires in Victoria and New South Wales, including by transporting Republic of Fiji Military engineers from Nadi to Australia, announced Defence Minister Ron Mark. On Saturday morning a NZDF Boeing 757 will depart New Zealand to uplift ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kaikōura $10.88 million boost in tourism & business
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing $10.88 million to boost business and tourism opportunities in Kaikōura, Parliamentary Undersecretary for Regional Economic Development, Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. As part of the Kaikōura Marina Development Programme, the following two projects will receive PGF funding: A $9.88 million investment to begin the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Govt accounts in surplus, debt remains low
    The Government’s books are in good shape with the accounts in surplus and expenses close to forecast, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Treasury today released the Crown accounts for the five months to November. The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was above forecast by $0.7 billion resulting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Auckland focus for first Police graduation of 2020
    The number of Police on the Auckland frontline is increasing with the graduation today of a special locally-trained wing of new constables. Police Minister Stuart Nash says the graduation of eighteen officers from Recruit Wing 333-5 means that more than 1900 new Police have been deployed since the Coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Wairarapa gets $7.11m PGF water boost
    The Provincial Growth Fund is putting $7.11 million into creating a sustainable water supply for Wairarapa, Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. The following two projects will receive Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) funding: A $7 million investment in Wairarapa Water Limited for the pre-construction development of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Progress with new Police station in Mahia
    Community safety and crime prevention in the East Coast community of Mahia has moved forward with the opening of a new Police station to serve the growing coastal settlement. Police Minister Stuart Nash has officially opened the new station, which was relocated almost 20 kilometres along the coast from the nearby ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Plans to protect the future of whitebaiting announced
    With several native whitebait species in decline the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage has today released proposals to standardise and improve management of whitebait across New Zealand. “The need for action for a healthy whitebait fishery has never been greater,” Eugenie Sage said.  “Four of the six whitebait species are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New resource for schools to increase awareness and understanding of climate change
    A new Ministry of Education resource available for schools in 2020 will increase awareness and understanding of climate change, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The resource, Climate Change – prepare today, live well tomorrow, will help students understand the effects of climate change at a local, national and global ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Getting more out of our most productive firms
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has approved the terms of reference for an Inquiry into the economic contribution of New Zealand's frontier firms. Frontier firms are the most productive firms in the domestic economy within their own industry. “These firms are important as they diffuse new technologies and business practices into ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZDF sends more support to Australia
    The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) is sending an Environmental Health Team, a Primary Health Care Team and a Chaplain to Australia, boosting New Zealand support for the Australian Defence Force (ADF) as it battles bush fires in Victoria and New South Wales, Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand joins partners in calling for full investigation into air crash in Iran
    Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Rt Hon Winston Peters says that developments suggesting a surface-to-air missile is responsible for the downing of the Ukrainian International Airlines flight in Iran is disastrous news. “New Zealand offers its deepest sympathies to the families of the 176 victims. It is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Staying connected to Australian agriculture
    Agriculture Minister, Damien O’Connor, says the Ministry for Primary Industries is continuing to stay connected to federal authorities in Australia as devastating fires affect the country.  “The Ministry is using an existing trans-Tasman forum for discussions on the agricultural impact of the fires and the future recovery phase,” says Damien ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Investment in schools – a commitment to communities
    Thousands of school-age children, their teachers and wider communities are benefiting from the Government’s multi-million dollar investment upgrading and renewing schools, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “We want New Zealand to be the best place to be a child and that means learning in warm, comfortable and modern classrooms,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Defence Force sends support to Australia
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark today announced New Zealand is sending three Royal New Zealand Air Force NH90 helicopters and crew, and two NZ Army Combat Engineer Sections as well as a command element to support the Australian Defence Force efforts in tackling the Australian fires.  The New Zealand Defence Force ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Better access to books for blind and low vision citizens on World Braille Day
    "Today is World Braille Day and I am delighted to announce that an international treaty giving blind and low vision New Zealanders access to books and literary works comes into force today,” Minister for Disability Issues Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “Today the Marrakesh Treaty and the associated amendments to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand to send further firefighter support to Australia
    The New Zealand Government is sending a further 22 firefighters to help fight the Australian fires. “The devastation caused by these fires is taking a substantial toll on our Australian neighbours and we will continue to do what we can to assist as they deal with this extremely dynamic, dangerous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Reducing the cost of education
    Twenty-two more schools have opted into the Government’s policy of providing $150 per child to schools who don’t ask parents for donations– bringing the total number of schools in the policy to 1,585. The Ministry of Education has accepted late opt ins past the November 14 deadline from schools that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Road deaths lower in 2019, but still more work to do
    “As we enter the new decade, my thoughts are with the families, friends and communities of the 353 people who lost their lives in road crashes last year. While the number of deaths is lower than in 2018 (377), this is still a staggering loss of life,” Duty Minister Iain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • PM congratulates New Year 2020 Honours recipients
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated the diverse group of New Zealanders recognised for their contributions to the country and their communities in the New Year 2020 Honours List.   The list of 180 honours recipients includes three Dames and three Knights Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Justice Minister congratulates first Māori Supreme Court judge on New Year’s Honour
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has congratulated The Honourable Justice Joe Williams for receiving a knighthood for services to the state. Sir Joe Williams has been appointed as a Knight Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit in the New Year 2020 Honours List. “Sir Joe Williams has made an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New Year honours for top sportspeople
    Twenty-one of New Zealand’s top sportspeople, coaches and leaders in the sporting community have been recognised in the New Year 2020 Honours List. The Silver Ferns coach Noeline Taurua has been made a Dame Companion and the former All Blacks Steve Hansen has been made a Knight Companion of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Leading architect of Zero Carbon Bill honoured
    It’s great to see ordinary New Zealanders doing extraordinary things, Minister for Climate Change James Shaw today said in response to the news that Lisa McLaren is included in the New Year 2020 Honours List for her exceptional work leading the campaign for the Zero Carbon Bill. Lisa McLaren was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Social entrepreneurs and innovation leads Pacific contribution
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says the New Year 2020 Honours List highlights the valuable contribution Pacific social entrepreneurs and innovators make to New Zealand, the Pacific region and the world. “The standout common factor that underlines their contribution to Aotearoa is the value they place in their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Service to birds and bush recognised in New Year Honours
    Decades of dedication to Aotearoa’s unique birds, landscapes, and native eels is recognised in the New Year 2020 Honours List said Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “I’m delighted that the decades of dedication to conservation, and fantastic leadership in giving nature a helping hand is being acknowledged,” said Eugenie Sage. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago