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Where are the polls?

Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, November 5th, 2008 - 36 comments
Categories: election 2008, Media, polls - Tags:

I know, they’re inaccurate and out of date. And it’s only three days until the only poll that counts. But I’m curious!

It’s now been ten days since the last public poll, which strikes me as a bizarre gap at the high of the electoral campaign. I guess they’re all saving up their final poll until Friday. Apart from denying us the fun of knowing which way the momentum is going, this silence does have more material effects. If Labour or the Greens’ numbers are still rising, having polls showing that could further invigorate their campaigns. If people are turning off Key polls might help swing others. Potential New Zealand First voters are probably those with the most interest in seeing a number of polls; they need to know whether a vote for NZF would be wasted (as I suspect it would be) and whether they’re better off voting for their second preference.

Both sides’ internal polls are said to be good news for the Left – a Labour, Greens, Progressive, Maori Party government looks like the most viable outcome at the moment. Hence, Key’s continued whining directed at the Maori Party that they have to let him govern if National is the top polling party.

36 comments on “Where are the polls? ”

  1. toad 1

    The Roy Morgan one would come out on Friday anyway if it keeps to it’s normal schedule.

    But I’m puzzled about the other ones, several of which should have been released by now if they had kept to recent scheduling.

    Dare I say maybe they are not saying what the media owners want them to say, so are being held back.

    On that note, interesting to see a pro-Green editorial in the NZ Herald today – I think this must be the first time ever. Maybe they know something the rest of us don’t!

  2. Monty 2

    Given the disaster Labour had last week I have every doubt that the left have been rising in the polls – I understand there has been an uplift for National as it is a while since Labour had a good day on the election trail.

    And the news story that seems to be getting a bit of momentum as the day runs is the story of the Chinese Takeaway scandal – where Labour activists are taking little old chinese ladies down to the polling booth and telling them to vote Labour. That is a dirty trick and I understand is getting some momentum.

    National are on target for an absolute majority come Saturday.

  3. Kerry 3

    just by the by, but why were there McCain flyers and flags all over the TVNZ’s Breakfast programme desk this morning???

    WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO UNBIASED REPORTING???

    Paul Henry is nothing but a failed wannabe Nat MP…..the Wairarapa people didnt give him the votes to win so he packed a sad, sold up and moved to Auckland!! sad loser!!

    Why TVNZ insist on keeping this wast of space on tv is beyond me.

    I for one have moved to 3 for all news programmes and am finding Sunrise really refreshing since Oliver Driver came on board…excellent and he doesnt let Key get away with much either….unlike Henry who practically gives key a BJ each time he sees him.

  4. Vinsin 4

    Yes, it’s strange, where are the polls dammit. Even a national biased poll would be good to see. It’d be interesting what effect Labour’s newest ad has had on the polls, i wonder if that’s where the good news for the left SP was talking about is coming from.

  5. r0b 5

    Poor Monty. All hat and no cattle. Do you do any campaigning in the real world Monty, or is relentlessly spinning your dystopian fantasies on this blog the limits of your political ambition?

    Meanwhile, yes, I’d had the same thoughts about the absence of polling. We’re certainly getting a great response for Labour out on the streets!

  6. Ianmac 6

    Monty: I read that story about allegedly Labour people taken elderly Chinese to poll early and influencing their vote. The escort would have to be a Mandarin speaking assistant so language would not be a problem. The rules say that a designated assistant can help a person who has visual, hearing or language difficulty. The staff at the early-polling booth are vigilant. Be interesting to know who and where exactly.

  7. higherstandard 7

    Perhaps the people you’re polling are like me r0b – look at the rosette the pollster is wearing and quickly say that I’m voting for the leader represented by that rosette just to make you leave as quickly as possible.

  8. Vinsin 8

    rob- i seem to be getting the same kind of response around Mt Eden. So, i wouldn’t be surprised if the polls are in fact good news for the left.

  9. Billy 9

    My mother helped the old folks vote last election by ferrying them from the rest home to the polling booth. One old dear expressed her great excitement at getting to vote for “that nice Mr. Holyoake”. I told her not to worry as inevitably there would be some balancing duffer voting for Walter Nash.

  10. Lew 10

    Monty: Some months ago, you refused to take a bet with me that National would get 75 MPs in the house. Care to take one on the absolute majority prediction now?

    L

  11. Scribe 11

    Both sides’ internal polls are said to be good news for the Left

    Funny. John Campbell suggested National’s internal polling was said to be looking very good for National.

  12. higherstandard 12

    Billy can you suggest to your mum that she shows the ones who are voting for Winston into the nearest maze and then picks them up after the polls have closed.

  13. higherstandard 13

    Honestly with the US election today and three days out from the election in NZ who gives a crap about NZ polls which have been bouncing around, wait till Sunday morning when we can all lie and say that’s what we suspected would happen from day 1.

  14. r0b 14

    And while you’re at it Monty, do you stand by this prediction?

    Monty
    June 17, 2008 at 8:24 am
    But believe your delusions as the Labour slump in the polls will continue right up to election day when your support will drop below 25%

  15. r0b 15

    i seem to be getting the same kind of response around Mt Eden

    Good to hear Vinsin! Not long to go now…

  16. forgetaboutthelastone 16

    I got polled by UMR last night. A tick for the Greens. Second preference = Labour. Vote for National = Definitely not.

    A couple of weeks ago Curia called and I declined to participate coz i knew Farrar was involved. That would have skewed his stupid polls somewhat – lol.

  17. Patrick 17

    forgetaboutthelastone – just out of interest, which electorate do you live in?

    I was talking to a friend of mine who lives on the other side of the country, and neither of us have ever been polled. I speculated that the market research companies don’t call me anymore as I’m too fast at hanging up on telemarketers, who knows though. Such a murky business.

  18. Joe Blogger 18

    “just by the by, but why were there McCain flyers and flags all over the TVNZ’s Breakfast programme desk this morning???”

    Kerry I thought the same thing however they were there, in fact there was an Obama sign directly in front of Henry and a bit to the left. What made it confusing though was that both the candidate signs were both the same Blue and White design which made separating the two fairly difficult.

  19. vidiot 19

    just by the by, but why were there McCain flyers and flags all over the TVNZ’s Breakfast programme desk this morning???

    WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO UNBIASED REPORTING???

    Kerry, get your eyes checked, there were Obama ones on the desk too.

    And never been polled either, I feel so left out (no pun intended).

  20. Rakaia George 20

    Scribe. Marcus Lush suggested the same on RLive in this morning’s panel discussion.

  21. banjo 21

    Apparently newspapers and radio stations used by their owner to influence election outcomes are not that popular these days. Readership in NZ Herald has dropped dramatically because everyone is reading The Standard

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/oreilly-puts-nz-herald-sale-reduce-debt-37224

  22. rjs131 22

    Steve

    Are you able to publish polls undertaken for Labour in Auckland Central? Or is the electorate seats irrelevant?

    The rumour i have heard that these polls are excellent for the left as well, Barker and Fairbrother are supposedly both polling well over 80%. mark Burton over 75% so the word on the street goes

  23. forgetaboutthelastone 23

    which electorate do you live in?: Dunedin North

    I was quite disgusted last night when tv3 apologised for airing the secret tapes because it might hurt national’s chances this close to the election.

    fk i rrrraaaaaaaaaaaagggged!

  24. insider 24

    rjs131

    Hilarious!

  25. rjs131. i don’t get told sensitive information if i go blurting it out or revealing my sources. so, no, i won’t be telling the details of what i heard about auckland central, although i understand its close.

    hs. “we can all lie and say that’s what we suspected would happen from day 1.” i’ll have a report i wrote in 2006 about how the mp will be kingmakers and nzf will be out, and lpg+m will win.

    captcha: ‘119 depend’. close, it’s actually 120 or more depending on overhang

  26. J Mex 26

    This “word on the street” stuff is fatuous, as is the – “we’re getting a great response out on the street”.

    Still waiting for SP to take me up on the Epsom bet. His “word” was that Rodney’s buffoonery had cost him support in Epsom and that the “word” was that he could be in trouble.

    $100 charity wager on whether Hide increases his majority, SP.Or is your “word” just a kite flying exercise?

  27. Tim Ellis 27

    Word on the street is that Judith Tizard has been all-out campaigning in Auckland Central this week. Her campaign diary shows she’s planning to spend a whole eight hours in the electorate between Monday and Friday.

    It’s no wonder the Labour Party polls, according to the “word”, are showing a landslide to Tizard.

  28. Matthew Pilott 28

    Tim, did you get her diary from the same bloke that was handing Keys’ out a while back?

  29. ak 29

    Jafapete reckons he’s seen a Brolmar but I can’t find it……..hope he’s right in his comment….(don’t all rush at once)

  30. Matthew Pilott 30

    Brolmar? That’s a cunning stunt.

  31. AndrewE 31

    I’m in for $100 to charity of losers choice.

    Rodney will definitely increase his majority in Epsom.

  32. Felix 32

    $100 to charity of losers choice?

    Isn’t the usual convention a charity of the winner’s choice?

    I’ll bet you ten bucks you won’t mow my lawn.

  33. Phil 33

    J Mex,

    SteveP doesn’t fly kites – too busy interviewing his own keyboard

  34. Chris G 34

    wow good to see the kiwiblog crowd arrived. *sigh*

  35. randal 35

    looks like the polls are finished in New Zealand.
    they have lost all credibility and are not to be trusted.
    much like Natoinal and Hooton who tried to suborn them
    btw
    where is hooton
    stillin “Hong Kong” eh
    hehehehehe
    I dont think he is coming back!

  36. J Mex 36

    I’m in for $100 to charity of losers choice.

    Rodney will definitely increase his majority in Epsom.

    Yes, I believe he will, AndrewE. I hope that Steve Pierson will pony up and put his charitable money where his mouth is.

    Felix is right though, the convention is that money goes to a charity of the winners choice, or poor old SP would be donating to The Standard.

    I’m still tossing up as to whether he will be donating to Starship Trust, or “The Brian Henry all above board and generally nice anonymously donating Charitable Trust and Benefactoring society*.

    *Results may vary and generally include the money going to Winston Peters.

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