Who will be the next National leader?

Written By: - Date published: 3:15 pm, December 5th, 2016 - 119 comments
Categories: john key, Judith Collins, national, paula bennett, Steven Joyce - Tags: ,

Judith Collins joker

With John Key’s resignation only hours old the question will be who will take over as National leader?

The timing is interesting. Nominations for Helensville’s candidate slot are no doubt open and Key had a limited time to indicate what he will do. I thought he would go list only so that if he lost the next election he could bail out quickly. But clearly he has had enough. He has looked very out of sorts lately and maybe he reached the stage where he could no longer stomach working with the National Caucus week in week out.

He has attempted to ordain Bill English as his successor.  The short time before the vote occurs  (7 days) means that English’s chances are good but I question the wisdom of this decision.  English led the party to 21% party vote in the 2002 election and clearly did not resonate with the electorate.

Other contenders will include Paula Bennett, Steven Joyce, Simon Bridges and perhaps even Amy Adams.  No one else should have a chance.  But there is one member of the caucus who is already doing the numbers and who not rest until her ambition of becoming leader has been satisfied …

 

119 comments on “Who will be the next National leader? ”

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  2. Psych nurse 2
    5 December 2016 at 3:25 pm

    Paul Foster-Bell, that’s why he came out yesterday.

  3. Keith 3
    5 December 2016 at 3:27 pm

    A barren wasteland of truly awful candidates.

    Did the shareholders (donors) say enough?

  4. The Real Matthew 4
    5 December 2016 at 3:29 pm

    I don’t think Bill English will have any desire to become leader. He is better suited to a behind the scenes role doing the hard yards for the frontman or frontwoman. I think English stays in a senior role to ensure a smooth transition but doesn’t take the leadership.

    Judith Collins would be an interesting choice. Behind her intimidating exterior she is a personable women who has a firm grip on policy. I think New Zealanders would warm to her no BS persona much like they warmed to Helen Clarke despite her lack of charisma.

    Interesting times ahead.

    • Keith 4.1
      5 December 2016 at 3:31 pm

      She is about as endearing as a cactus.

      And who can forget Oravida?

      • cathy 4.1.1
        5 December 2016 at 10:13 pm

        true true.

        thing that gets me is all the smarmy hypocritical things people are saying about key. it always happens, even andrew little is saying or implying what a great job he’s done.

        bullshit. this resignation would have been better if it happened six years ago.

        key has arguably done more harm to new zealand than any other politician since piggy.

        or possibly roger douglas, although we’re not supposed to say that.

    • Stunned Mullet 4.2
      5 December 2016 at 3:34 pm

      Despite you and Whale and a few others pushing the Judith barrow i don’t think the NZ public would warm to her at all ?

      Despite all her strengths there’s too much baggage she brings with her and making her leader would be too much of a gift for Labour and Little.

    • WILD KATIPO 4.3
      5 December 2016 at 3:41 pm

      Have a slice of Orivida pie , The Real Mattew….

      and play it again John ,… once more with feeling.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFojIOL_qZc

      • Murray Simmonds 4.3.1
        6 December 2016 at 6:48 am

        yep, that was one of the all-time great ads from a time when television was watchable . . . . .

        My guess?

        Yes, she will wind up with the nomination, and no she won’t be elected (I hope). Too many swamp Kauri “Tabletops” and other dodgy deals in her past.

        As for the fascinating question of “Why now?” for JK . . . . .; my “tuppence worth” goes like this:

        One of his old mates from Merrill-Lynch advised him of an impending GFC-2 by mid 2017 at the latest. And this, along, with a lot of other factors weighed into the mix.

        A bank failure or two in the USA along with one in Germany and/or Italy and, well, basically “that’s it” for the “Old Guard” economic system. Of which Key was a part. (As is the National Cabinet including Ms Collins).

        Incidentally, John Campbell gave a fascinating interview with Key on RNZ National last night (around 5.30 roughly). Fascinating because Key came across as relaxed, non-defensive and . . . . . well . . . . even articulate. Quite different from what we’d heard before and to which we have become so accustomed. Very interesting! (And congratulations to John Campbell for achieving that.)

    • wellfedweta 4.4
      5 December 2016 at 4:56 pm

      If English wants it, it’s his. Collins, Joyce, Bennet (in that order) could all do the job better than anyone on the other side, but my pick is English.

    • repateet 4.5
      5 December 2016 at 5:01 pm

      ” no BS persona” ?

      Do you mean “no BS persona but a BS reality”?

    • E.A. Blair 4.6
      5 December 2016 at 10:44 pm

      A piranha fish would be an “interesting choice” for PM, it does not matter how personable Judith Collins is in person its her “crusher” Collins image that is going to be known and remembered and I dont think a Clark style makeover would be enough, not with less than 12 months.

      Amy Adams, now that would be an interesting choice.

    • Patricia duff 4.7
      7 December 2016 at 10:44 am

      I agree with you, may best person win

  5. WILD KATIPO 5
    5 December 2016 at 3:29 pm

    ( ‘ Other contenders will include Paula Bennett, Steven Joyce, Simon Bridges and perhaps even Amy Adams. ‘ )

    Of the first 3 , it would be very good for us all. They are all equally as unpopular , worthless and riddled with skeletons in the closet.

    But the 4th one, ( not Amy Adams – the one on the next sentence down … ) … exceptionally so.

    If any one of these buffoons are chosen , look forwards with unqualified certainty of a centre left govt with Andrew Little as Prime Minister in coalition with the Greens , NZ First and possibly Mana and the Maori party.

    That’s a cert.

    Act will be obliterated and Dunne will be gone..

    • Alan 5.1
      5 December 2016 at 4:01 pm

      National 41- 42 plus Winston 10-12 = 2017 election winners.

        • red-blooded 5.1.1.2
          5 December 2016 at 7:20 pm

          Hey, I hope Winnie wouldn’t go with them, but let’s remember that he campaigned in the first MMP election on the premise that the only way to change the government was to vote NZ First, then signed up with the team he’d been excoriating and went along for the ride. Of course, it all ended in tears, but the fact remains that that guy’s got form. He’s not trustworthy.

          • Draco T Bastard 5.1.1.2.1
            5 December 2016 at 8:54 pm

            Winston got badly burned on that and I don’t think he’ll do it again. And then there’s the policies – NZ Firsts’ policies are completely counter to National’s.

            • Jenny Kirk 5.1.1.2.1.1
              5 December 2016 at 9:31 pm

              Draco T B – I don’t think NZF policies will make any difference as to whether Winston jumps into bed with the Nats, or not. He’ll go where he thinks its best for him …… and its looking more and more like the Nats’ bed will be it.

              • Matthew Whitehead …
                6 December 2016 at 2:16 pm

                It’s worth remembering that Winston isn’t going to be around forever and so he’s going to be a bit more concerned with his legacy than he was before. While I would never rule out being surprised by NZF, it would indeed be a surprise if his memory of the failed coalition with National isn’t still so fresh in his mind that he would actually consider going into Coalition with them.

                His entire party has been hugely anti-government this term. It would be an exact repeat of the 90s if he turns around and does a deal with National, and potentially it would risk NZ First exiting parliament again.

      • David C 5.1.2
        5 December 2016 at 4:29 pm

        more like Nat 45% and NZF 15%.

        Winnie as Deputy PM !

        • Matthew Whitehead 5.1.2.1
          6 December 2016 at 2:18 pm

          NZF is dipping above and below 10% at the moment. If they end up with 15%, it’ll be because soft National voters are completely abandoning the party, in which case, I’d be surprised to see that Nats above 40%.

      • Draco T Bastard 5.1.3
        5 December 2016 at 4:39 pm

        Nah, it’s going to be National 22 – 23 seats. Key’s taking most of National’s support with him.

        • Enough is Enough 5.1.3.1
          5 December 2016 at 4:50 pm

          Where is he taking that support exactly?

          Are the supporters suddenly going to stop voting or jump ship?

          • Draco T Bastard 5.1.3.1.1
            5 December 2016 at 4:56 pm

            National had support due to Key’s personable façade. Not because of policies or because National’s any good at being government.

            What a lot of those supporters are going to do will depend upon who becomes National leader – and I’m pretty sure that a lot of them will simply go to Winston instead.

            How do people feel about a NZFirst led government?

            • Tamati Tautuhi 5.1.3.1.1.1
              5 December 2016 at 9:02 pm

              Winston will definitely get 15% may even get 20% party going pretty good I hear through the grapevine and good turn outs at NZF Meetings?

              • Matthew Whitehead …
                6 December 2016 at 2:31 pm

                20% for NZF would require a 9-14% shift in the party vote to NZF from National, or a shift from Labour and the Greens to NZF as well. (assuming NZF’s current average support of roughly 8% is correct, and accounting for likely errors in relative party vote levels) That’s an insanely high shift, as historically (since MMP) when support drops sharply for one party, it’s almost always two or three other parties that benefit.

                It’s reasonable to say that NZF might be the primary beneficiary of lost National party votes. But a shift of more than 4-5% to NZF would be unprecedented. (That is to say, I don’t expect NZF to overtake the Greens)

        • james 5.1.3.2
          5 December 2016 at 5:32 pm

          time will tell – but I dont see it going to the left.

          • WILD KATIPO 5.1.3.2.1
            5 December 2016 at 5:56 pm

            I cant even BEGIN to imagine the sheer panic of all those hurriedly put together meetings and contingency plans happening right now in the National party –

            And all those clandestine phone calls and e mails that will be going on as they all jockey for position….

            And these GNATS come on here as if there ISN’T division among that lot…

            The best they can hope for is an interim PM ,… to which the voting public will not be convinced…. the only one they can be with is Bill English , – however, – going by his former track record of PM he was an unpopular, ineffectual leader – and in the end – found out to be just as corrupt as the current PM, Hence the nickname … the ‘Double Dipper from Dipton ‘.

            Things are not looking good long term for that party at all.

        • AmaKiwi 5.1.3.3
          5 December 2016 at 8:37 pm

          “Key’s taking most of National’s support with him.”

          Correct. Our elections are personality contests.

          The first Labour government was clearly defined as the workers versus the capitalists. Today you need a divining rod to tell the difference between Nats and Labour. May the most entertaining liar win. He did in the USA.

  6. taxicab 6
    5 December 2016 at 3:33 pm

    I see WO has stopped publishing stories since this broke no doubt Slater has been rushed to the Collins war room so it’s all on ! Boy is this going to be messy .

    • Brutus Iscariot 6.1
      5 December 2016 at 3:52 pm

      You may be right there…

    • Muttonbird 6.2
      5 December 2016 at 4:48 pm

      Dirty Politics Farrar has also not posted since the press conference. They are either sobbing in a corner somewhere or have been called in to their respective bunkers. Fatty to Collins’ war-room, and Penguin to the ninth floor to do some desperate polling.

      • wellfedweta 6.2.1
        5 December 2016 at 4:55 pm

        Sorry to correct you, but Farrar posted at 1.03pm, immediately after the presser.

        • WILD KATIPO 6.2.1.1
          5 December 2016 at 6:02 pm

          So what if he has or he hasn’t?

          It no longer matters.

          Farrars cushy place in the PR hierarchy has evaporated along with Key being PM.

          Farrar will struggle to have the same impact simply because the quality of his subjects have all been involved in either scandal or are seen as ineffectual.

          Transference for the spin more than likely will be moving more towards the general influence of the MSM… and to date?…

          They haven’t been that amiable with the housing bubble, immigration issues , homelessness to name a few.

          • wellfedweta 6.2.1.1.1
            5 December 2016 at 6:27 pm

            I’m not sure about that. Farrar is the outstanding political pollster in NZ, and his association with National goes way deeper than Key.

            • WILD KATIPO 6.2.1.1.1.1
              5 December 2016 at 6:46 pm

              Yes… that may indeed be your opinion of Farrar,.. but that still doesn’t change the fact that Farrar is now stuck with working with a set of less- than – desirable political material …

              And being totally honest about it… ALL of them have had some sort of major public deficiency… whether that be by gaffe, scandal , … or just plain old public unpopularity… and it will be that,… that lessens Farrars impact…

              Or to say it in laymens terms…

              He will now be ‘ trying to push shit uphill with a pointed stick ‘.

              • wellfedweta …
                5 December 2016 at 8:01 pm

                Hold on. On one hand you decry Key, and on the other you claim his departure is a problem for Farrar. Spin, spin, spin.

                ‘ALL of them have had some sort of major public deficiency…”

                And Labour MP’s, and the current leader, haven’t?

                • WILD KATIPO …
                  5 December 2016 at 8:25 pm

                  I think you are not quite that naive , but also seem to display a penchant for deflection / twisting the obvious intent of meanings to your advantage.

                  And while it is true that Key leaving these shores scot free and not being held to account for the damage he has incurred on this country ( see Winston Peters talk on accountability issues and a tanking economy ) is bad enough , the fact was that behind Keys personality was a well run PR machine by the likes of David Farrar that were careful to always put him in best light.

                  In other words , the Key construct was not only that , – a construct – but it was also a very guarded one. There is no denying his every word and deed was carefully crafted on core issues pertaining to the neo liberal ideology. It was no accident that this govt relied heavily on groups such as Crosby / Texter , polling company’s , private media and the like to reinforce the Key image/ brand .

                  Key also came to NZ politics with no discernible or easily traceable political baggage – at least to the casual citizen observer.

                  Unlike ALL of the rest of the line up for the PM’s job – who will also be seen as scrabbling for position amongst themselves. Which will further add to the perception of ( and publicly known ) division and factions .

                  And it is at THAT POINT that Farrars job becomes so much harder,… he now has to contend with individuals that have a known ( and negative ) track record in NZ politics . ALL of them come with serious political deficits in the public’s mind. All of them carry past baggage , – whether that baggage be incompetencies, scandals, gaffes , poor public image, unpopular advocation of policy’s that run contrary to the greater public’s wishes and so on…

                  • wellfedweta …
                    6 December 2016 at 9:23 am

                    So you failed to address my point, OK. Now you claim the economy is ‘tanking’. Despite record employment, record low interest rates, low inflation and low debt. Is it possible you simply can’t see past your derangement over Key to recognise when you’re talking nonsense.

                • Tricledrown …
                  5 December 2016 at 11:08 pm

                  Dinosaur dung beetle
                  Stop crying in your beer.
                  No one on the front benches of National has Keys charisma.

    • Blackcap 6.3
      5 December 2016 at 5:22 pm

      What do you mean? So to see the WO blog is still posting every half hour after the story broke. Well so to see they are. Not sure what you are implying there. Its all good to speculate etc but lets be honest and take the high road here.

  7. Skinny 7
    5 December 2016 at 3:52 pm

    Here is real leadership from an opposition leader, on RNZ today. Most certainly not the gutless dribble Little & Shaw served up;

    NZ First leader Winston Peters told RNZ that it was always clear the Prime Minister “would cut and run before the next election”.

    Mr Peters said “Mr Key was resigning because his popularity rating was falling. He also said the economy was not as strong as the government claimed, and people would start to realise it.”

  8. Enough is Enough 8
    5 December 2016 at 3:54 pm

    The person who can best manage and work with Winston.

    That is their only chance of success now

  9. Irasible 9
    5 December 2016 at 3:55 pm

    Rumour in Botany is that Jammy Lea Ross is organising as bag man for Judith Collins in return for being shuffled into her cabinet as finance advisor. Being the only MP with a sourced donation from Dong Hua Liu.

  10. The PInk Postman 10
    5 December 2016 at 3:55 pm

    Andrew Little’s comments on Radio regarding Key’s resignation was sincere well mannered and in my opinion Prime-Ministerial . No slick remarks and no sleazy smart put down. I’m proud to have a leader that is decent and well mannered. It makes a change to what we have had for the last few long years.

  11. Andre 11
    5 December 2016 at 3:59 pm

    Prostetnic Vogon Joyce making his pitch to the caucus.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysb-TwA7JCQ

  12. EE 12
    5 December 2016 at 4:06 pm

    Rumour has it that a certain ex-alblacks captain could be helicoptered into the position

    • Rae 12.1
      6 December 2016 at 8:04 am

      If it is Jack Nicholson eyebrows we are looking for here, Judith Collins could be a fair substitute.

  13. esoteric pineapples 13
    5 December 2016 at 4:15 pm

    I know who is the perfect next leader of the National Party – Winston Peters! I wonder if there is any way National could coerce NZ First into joining forces with it to the point where they could campaign together with the express understanding that if National wins, Winston will be PM.

    • ianmac 13.2
      5 December 2016 at 8:04 pm

      Many a true word there esoteric! Anything is possible. Better ask Michelle Boag first though.

    • David C 13.3
      5 December 2016 at 8:52 pm

      LOL

      Winnie is likely to get 1/4 the votes the Nats will get and you think he will get offered the top job?

      • WILD KATIPO 13.3.1
        5 December 2016 at 11:32 pm

        The housing bubble is about to explode…. do you really think Key wanted to be around when that happened?

        All that talk about the ‘ Rockstar economy ‘ … the ‘ Brighter future’…

        And just like that housing bubble bursting – so too will all those thousands of paper millionaire investors assets burst ,..and the fury will be intense. It is well Key has a house in Hawaii.

        I find it amusing that the die hard sycophants just cannot dislodge themselves enough to see the treachery he has dealt his own political party by resigning. His successor will be left to bear the brunt of the sheer rage of thousands of angry New Zealanders who are about to get burnt badly.

        To them , Key has been like a drug.

        Expect there to be a plummeting of housing prices which have a knock on affect to the greater economy as untold housing investors try to lighten thier portfolios.

        Ironically,.. perhaps the greatest thing Key could have done to alleviate the pressure of that housing bubble was to resign .

    • geoff lye 13.4
      6 December 2016 at 12:21 pm

      Geez what a horrible thought.

  14. tc 14
    5 December 2016 at 4:24 pm

    The hollowmen have got what they wanted so will leave team national to squabble.

    Timing is interesting, something big may be about to come out and this is a class A distraction their msm puppets can run with.

    • Thinkerr 14.1
      5 December 2016 at 9:18 pm

      I thought so too, when I was thinking about what news or catastrophe is about to rear its head.

      But I thought again and decided he simply might have been waiting until the votes were counted in Roskill.

  15. Draco T Bastard 15
    5 December 2016 at 4:28 pm

    English led the party to 21% party vote in the 2002 election and clearly did not resonate with the electorate.

    And I suspect that with names like Blinglish and Double Dipton following him around like a bad smell it hasn’t improved any.

    • Ovid 15.1
      5 December 2016 at 4:31 pm

      I don’t know. I do think this is good for Labour, but the voting public can be a funny beast. I don’t think this means a change of government next year is yet a foregone conclusion. That said, the field of contenders have a lot of baggage.

    • Richard McGrath 15.2
      6 December 2016 at 6:58 am

      The double dipper’s party got just 16% of the eligible vote in 2002

  16. UncookedSelachimorpha 16
    5 December 2016 at 4:30 pm

    Plenty more scum left in that pond.

  17. b waghorn 17
    5 December 2016 at 4:53 pm

    time to find out if national is the slickly run business they appear to be, a smooth seamless transition will tell us they are in it together in always. personally im hoping for
    https://youtu.be/BXmyd1WxdHE?t=9

  18. swordfish 18
    5 December 2016 at 5:04 pm

    Here’s my March 2016 overview of public opinion on a post-Key successor (Polls over the last 5 years)

    http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/2016/03/next-national-leader_14.html

    • miravox 19.1
      5 December 2016 at 11:28 pm

      Oh, go on, go for it Judith! Rev that DP machine up and give it everything you’ve got. This sort of opportunity doesn’t come along twice.

      *Popcorn*

  20. Rosemary McDonald 20
    5 December 2016 at 5:22 pm

    OTOH….rumour, from a reliable source, 😉 😉

    is that Simon “Koikoora” Bridges is a contender….

  21. rod 21
    5 December 2016 at 5:25 pm

    Looks like John has finally seen the light. Bye, thanks for nothing.

  22. james 22
    5 December 2016 at 5:36 pm

    “English led the party to 21% party vote in the 2002 election and clearly did not resonate with the electorate.”

    Yet – you think that little on 23% in the polls is a potential PM in waiting.

    (of course this was how the polls were last week – next week could be different).

    Regardless Bill has had a lot of time under Keys wing since then – and has learnt a lot, and the government has performed in the eyes of the majority of voters (again according to the polls).

    So I see Bill English as the replacement best contender (and who I would want), but then part of would love to have Judith Collins as PM – if just to read the comments on this blog.

    • mickysavage 22.1
      5 December 2016 at 6:00 pm

      Labour is not on 23% in the polls. The Roy Morgan is a laughing stock. The last Colmar Brunton was at 28% and I understand the internals are even better.

      • alwyn 22.1.1
        5 December 2016 at 6:35 pm

        Last time the “internals” were any good, well at least better than the public polls Little Andy published them.
        If they are as good as you claim he would be doing it again, wouldn’t he?
        If he is keeping them hush-hush we must assume that they are just as crappy as are the Roy Morgan figures.

      • Pete George 22.1.2
        5 December 2016 at 7:50 pm

        Little suggested slightly better. Hooton said the last UMR was 29%. Curia apparently a little lower.

        I think there will be another Roy Morgan poll this month as well as UMR and Curia non-public polls, but people are switching off politics at this time of year and in any case it’s too soon to tell what effect if anything the leadership change will have. I think it will be a few months into next year before we get a reasonable idea.

    • WILD KATIPO 22.2
      5 December 2016 at 6:18 pm

      Frankly James I would love to see Judith Collins as their new elected leader,…

      What with her Oravida fiasco , her rivalry amongst her own peers , abrasive political style and divisiveness she would be the best choice.

      Unfortunately it will fall to Bill English instead . Not such a good option for us , but something that is workable, nonetheless.

      And he, … along with his affectionate nickname ‘Double Dipper’ and total lack of socially popular appeal will serve the purpose well.

      Very well, in fact.

  23. Ad 23
    5 December 2016 at 5:40 pm

    Bridges Deputy.
    Appealing English combo for 2017.

  24. b waghorn 24
    5 December 2016 at 5:57 pm

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/87218655/john-key-resigns-who-are-the-contenders-to-replace-him-as-prime-minister

    It’s very hard to believe that stuff wasn’t informed of this coming when they produce the very slick next leader info the have added to this story, x factor nz pm

  25. Editractor 25
    5 December 2016 at 6:35 pm

    The question of who will be the next National party leader is inseparable from the question of who will be the next PM. The latter is sure to involve plenty of ego as unelectables in other conditions consider the letters and titles they might accrue.

    • red-blooded 25.1
      5 December 2016 at 7:32 pm

      Editractor, you do realise that the next Nat party leader is definitely going to be the next PM, don’t you? There’s still almost a year till they have to call the next election…

      I think it’s most likely to be English, and I wouldn’t be too comforted by his (long distant) previous defeat. He’s not particularly articulate or charismatic, so some of the bling will wear off the Nats (about time) and maybe, just maybe, there can be more of a focus on competing policies. Wouldn’t that be a change?

      • AmaKiwi 25.1.1
        5 December 2016 at 8:49 pm

        @ red-blooded

        This is the Roman Empire. We want entertainment. If the people wanted policies, Trump would not have won a single primary.

  26. ianmac 26
    5 December 2016 at 8:06 pm

    If Key loves to win, I wonder if those Leadership popularity figures declining, made him fear becoming a loser?

  27. outofbed 27
    5 December 2016 at 8:25 pm

    I find it strange that as Key resigned to be closer to his wife, you would have thought she would be by his side when he announced his resignation with a big smile on her face!

  28. Paul Campbell 28
    5 December 2016 at 8:53 pm

    Oh please brer Fox, not Judith Collins

  29. swordfish 29
    5 December 2016 at 9:02 pm

    Judith Collins’s popularity

    .

    (1) Next National Party Leader Polls

    Respondents preferring Collins:

    Herald-DigiPoll (Nov 2011) …. 16%

    Herald-DigiPoll (June 2013) …. 13%

    Colmar Brunton (July 2013) …. 11%

    Colmar Brunton (Sep 2014) …. 2%

    Fairfax Ipsos (Sep 2014) …….. Too Low to Register

    Herald-DigiPoll (Aug 2015) …. Too Low to Register

    Why the fall in Public Support ? …

    .

    (2) Oravida scandal (May 2014)

    Colmar Brunton Poll (carried out for Q+A)

    As the Oravida scandal swirled around Collins, Colmar Brunton carried out a poll for Q+A that found New Zealanders evenly split (42/42) over whether she should remain a Minister. As you might expect, a majority (61%) of Labour and Green supporters wanted her gone. But so too did a healthy minority (20%) of National voters (with another 13% of Nats Unsure).

    In the same May poll, 50% of respondents agreed that Collins’ behaviour had been damaging to National (63% of Labour/Green supporters and a sizeable minority (38%) of National voters) and almost a quarter of the entire sample agreed they would factor the scandal into their voting decision come Election Day (including 8% of National supporters).

    .

    (3) Dirty Politics scandal (August 2014)

    Should Judith Collins be stood down / Resign ?

    ……………………….Resign…………..Remain Minister………DK

    Entire Sample……61………………………..26…………………….13

    National Voters…44………………………..43……………………..14

    High Stood Down/Resign %

    – Green Voters … 89
    – NZF Voters ……. 81
    – Maori ……………. 73
    – Labour Voters .. 72

    High Remain Minister %

    – National Voters …. 43

    As you can see, even National voters (slightly) favoured her resignation over a slap on the wrist with a wet bus ticket.

    Voter antagonism towards Collins had, of course, been building for quite some time, her aggressive public persona possibly playing a long-term role in undermining her popularity in the run-up to these scandals.

  30. Incognito 30
    5 December 2016 at 9:31 pm

    National has got so much talent to choose from.

  31. swordfish 31
    5 December 2016 at 10:08 pm

    English shaping up as the anointed one, the continuity candidate, one half of the Dynamic Duo and so on …

    … Wonder if his path will be smoothed to the extent that no formal contest takes place ?

    Interesting to see just how many Tories at kiwiblog feel he lacks both the charisma and “bloke-ish-ness” to keep the “Centre-Ground”

    • Pat 31.1
      5 December 2016 at 10:12 pm

      and the only viable option (not a lot of talent to choose from)….unless theres a real dark horse out there

  32. alwyn 32
    5 December 2016 at 10:27 pm

    The comments on this post scare the hell out of me.
    Imagine an election where the leaders of the four largest parties were;
    National – Collins
    Labour – Little
    New Zealand First – Peters
    Green – Turei
    SCREAM. I think I would emigrate.

    On the other hand I suspect the four largest parties AFTER the election would be, in no particular order.
    ACT
    United Future
    Maori
    Mana

    • framu 32.1
      6 December 2016 at 7:55 am

      its turei/shaw – but regardless, the only change there is collins. Is she that terrifying? 🙂

      ” the four largest parties AFTER the election would be,” – what?

  33. mac1 33
    5 December 2016 at 10:44 pm

    “Who will be the next National leader?”

    Amy Adams- bright, young,personable, a woman who has shown good qualities locally around visiting rural areas and working hard. Not my pick, but that of a politics insider with a nose for a good political story.

  34. Adrian Thornton 34
    5 December 2016 at 10:50 pm

    What about Stuart Nash,the new leader of the National Party…. a centrist in his own words, not tied to any positions or principles that would get in the way of staying power, in his own words, a bonafide populist..sounds like a match made in heaven (or hell if you are that way inclined).

  35. The decrypter 35
    5 December 2016 at 11:27 pm

    Sam the man –unless nick edges him out in tightly fought leadership contest . go sam.

  36. mosa 36
    5 December 2016 at 11:45 pm

    Key told English in September that he was standing down so plenty of time to plan this resignation and English time to decide if he wants the job and the campaign for the year ahead.

    English must have agreed to take the leadership on as Key has publicly endorsed him as his successor and that would have carried considerable weight with the caucus and the public.

    Win or lose next year it will give English a year as PM and then retirement as the deputy elected shortly will take over if they win.

    The deputy elected will be the future leader.

    Thats the vote to watch.

    • WILD KATIPO 36.1
      6 December 2016 at 12:24 am

      Id say your quite right , Mosa…

      September was a while before anyone else got to know about it- and why only confide in English?

      English will be the next – interim- PM. Not only because of that confidence, but the fact Key has already named his preference for English. But here’s another thing. That housing market. Its going to blow within the next year or so.

      And when that happens – NO ONE will want to be the incumbent PM. Its going to be very , very ugly.

      Which gives credence to your point about English taking over then retiring- and the next in line becoming PM. That PM ‘s tenure as a PM will be short lived ,… and that will mark the start of the long march in the wilderness for the National party.

      I dont even think they will win the coming election. Without Key , National have no one. What they do have is a collection of around 4 persona’s – each of which has been marked by scandal or general unpopularity . So Nationals wilderness march will probably be starting a lot sooner rather than later.

      • mosa 36.1.1
        6 December 2016 at 11:01 am

        Also i think the desire for stable leadership and business as usual will mean no early election.

      • Brutus Iscariot 36.1.2
        6 December 2016 at 3:35 pm

        It’s all relative…”no-one” might still be better than what Labour are offering right now. Cunliffe’s departure leaves the talent pool pretty shallow.

        They don’t have to be as good as Key, they just have to be better than Little and his team, and able to work with Winnie.

    • Thinkerr 36.2
      6 December 2016 at 7:03 am

      English gets his name on the list of NZ Prime Ministers.

      Then, if he retires at the next election, his super would be calculated at the higher payscale.

      All he has to do is take the country through the Christmas & New Year season, then the government will go into hibernation while parties hit the campaign trail. Which, if you had decided to retire, wouldn’t be so stressful.

      Then, onto a series of board-ships, while collecting the super as well.

      That’d be what I would do.

  37. Tamati Tautuhi 37
    6 December 2016 at 4:42 am

    Bill English a safe pair of hands which have guided NZ through the GFC and developed NZ into a true “ROCKSTAR ECONOMY”.

  38. Thinkerr 38
    6 December 2016 at 6:35 am

    maybe this way he can get a gong in one of the two remaining honours lists before the next election, without risking it being another party’s decision?

  39. Puckish Rogue 39
    6 December 2016 at 8:35 am

    It’ll be English probably but my heart (and soul) belongs to Jude

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_MjCqQoLLA

  40. Muttonbird 40
    6 December 2016 at 9:15 pm

    National Party mouthpiece Tracey Watkins saying Bill English knock-on with the try line open.

    This doesn’t surprise me, Bling is not in any way leadership material and that was proven in 2002.

    Brash did English…Key did Brash…and now they are going back to English!

    If the re-annointment of English is supposed to be renewal then I’d hate to see the alternative. Shipley? The exhumation of Muldoon, perhaps?

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/87279426/nationals-dilemma-status-quo-or-change

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