web analytics

Why I love polls

Written By: - Date published: 10:58 am, June 19th, 2011 - 12 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

Stuff, 17 June:

Consumer confidence ‘back to normal’

… Nationally, consumer confidence is bouncing back strongly, after being badly dented by the Canterbury earthquake in February, according to a bank survey. … In the June quarter, the Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index jumped 14.1 points from 97.9 to 112. A figure above 100 indicates optimists outnumber pessimists.

The survey was done in the first fortnight of June and included respondents in Christchurch, who were not included in the March-quarter survey.

The survey suggests a modest increase in spending from a very soft base, and that confidence overall remains weaker than in mid-2010, before the economy slowed and the September Canterbury earthquake hit.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said yesterday: “After being badly dented by February’s earthquake, New Zealand household confidence has rebounded to more normal levels.

“About as many people now expect good and bad economic times in the year ahead as they did last December. And people’s perceptions of their own financial conditions have continued to improve.”

Stuff, 19 June:

Financial woes keep growing

People’s confidence in their financial prospects has plummeted just five months out from the general election, with a new poll showing people are worried they will lose their jobs and that things will get worse in the next year.

The Research New Zealand poll is bad news for the government because despite recent surveys showing high levels of business confidence, it appears many New Zealanders do not feel the same way about their own prospects.

Political scientist Bryce Edwards said the results could mean a return to a focus on the economy in the run-up to the election, and a more traditional emphasis on left-right campaigning.

The poll of 503 people aged 18 and over found that the number of people who felt their financial situation had improved in the past year had dropped to just 14%, down from 27% last year. Just under half said their situation had worsened.

Only 23% of people thought their finances would improve in the next 12 months, down from 56% last year.

Workers were worried about their jobs. Last year 76% of respondents felt confident their jobs were secure – this year that had dropped to 65%, described by the researchers as significant.

“What seemed to be an improving trend in 2009 and 2010 has dropped sharply in 2011,” said Research NZ director Emanuel Kalafatelis.

Make of that what you will.

12 comments on “Why I love polls ”

  1. Zetetic 1

    problem with confidence polls is they ask what business thinks things are going to be like in 12 months vs now.

    First – people can’t see the big things that drive economies (peak oil)

    Second – confidence will always skyrocket a bit after a big disaster. when you’re at the bottom, the only way is up. It’s like asking someone in July whether they think the coming months will be warmer. Of course they will be. But that doesn’t tell you anything about how warm they will be relative to last summer.

    • infused 1.1

      That’s a great generalization. I’ve been following the BNZ surveys for the last year, generally they have been spot on.

  2. ghostwhowalksnz 2

    The bank is’ talking up its book’

  3. Colonial Viper 3

    Retail sales rebound strongly


    But you have to read into the article to find out that petrol price increases and a bump in new car sales was responsible for most of the rise. And it doesn’t really say in this article, but part of the bump came from retailers having to slash prices in sales to bring in customers (not really a sign of confidence there).

    And then right at the end the article, for those who make it there, it finally says this:

    Gordon said while the renewed retail sales growth was encouraging, the severely depressed level of sales means there is still little joy for retailers.

    “Sales volumes are still a whopping 8.5 per cent below their early 2007 high, and are only 1.7 per cent above their trough two years ago,” he said.

  4. ianmac 4

    “Well what would Labour do to raise confidence and restore employment?” they may well ask. I am confident that over the next few weeks Labour will publish their intentions and become a viable alternative.

    • Deadly_NZ 4.1

      They had better because at the moment the ‘Great Silence’ is getting all together too much to stand. And if I am to going to give my vote to Labour, I would like to know it is not going to be wasted. And a vote for the Greens could be a better way to go.

      • ZeeBop 4.1.1

        Double your effect, vote Labour in the constituency and Green on the List. If enough Labour voters do then there is a threshold when Labour don’t get extra seats (aka Maori seats) and Greens take off expanding the number of left wing MPs in parliament. This has been recognized by the Nationals, who realize they need a list party or no MMP. So enter the migrant party, and the refurnishing of the ACT Party. But too late if Labour voters on mass split their vote.

        After the war the UK threw out Churchill. Its does not follow when NZ wins that there will be a boost for National and Key, if people want change so much Key will actually be seen as the run up to the Rugby and all its past fears and anguish.

  5. Tiger Mountain 5

    Confidence as surveyed is all about ‘me’, did I mention ‘me’? These are business tools used for all manner of buggery bollocks to suggest just about anything to anyone as though they should be taken seriously.

  6. ZeeBop 6

    I was reading about Hayek, he did not say government was evil, just banks. And he also it could be concluded he was arguing for free healthcare for all not private healthcare and drug regimes. Just look at America to see the high cost of both, because of fracturing of the demand into smaller corporate fiefdoms who then raise price rapaciously.

    Free healthcare means prevention becomes the standard, which means less drug use as complications create more drugs use.

    The governments role is to minimise intervention, and regulate a fair playing field. User pays when most citizens don’t access the service, e.g. local pilot weather reports, and free access so bottlenecks do not create greater costs (Maori health).

    So funnily enough Hayek says this will happen, that after a massive artificial intervention in the markets by government letting banks print money, then government must respond by spending less, and with drawing from interventionist practices. Like in health care, like in welfare (stopping less than 15hrs of work because of high compliance costs).

    So sorry, but the dream is over, the dream lifestyle of neo-liberals who thought they were both right and successful, on both measures they have failed dismally, their own ‘hero’ Hayek says so. They games the system, as Marx predicted and Hayek modelled, and now they are reaping the contraction of all the lobbiest inspired legislative interventionism and protection.

    That’s what happens Hayek said it, governments who try to save their mates will hurt the economy more, and people are hurting more because of Key, protecting his money mates.
    Asset sales, handing over yet more easy profit to the market is a form of intervention to pick winners.

    We quantize currency for a reason, so the units of value can flow more efficiently, so why does Key believe that only the top of town can control and produce a free market when they horde the shares. That’s not a free market, that’s government intervention, atleast in the government ownership everyone has the same ownership rights! A level playing field!

  7. I love the way, that people say polls dont mean anything, when there guy is down, but they mean a lot when there guy is up.

    • I agree, it is all about how the poll reflects on you…

      Personaly I belive that people shouldnt be quick to dismiss the opinion of the public.

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Tokelau Language Week reminds us to stay united and strong
    Staying strong in the face of challenges and being true to our heritage and languages are key to preserving our cultural identity and wellbeing, is the focus of the 2020 Tokelau Language Week. Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio, says this year’s theme, ‘Apoapo tau foe, i nā tāfea ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • NZ announces a third P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    The Government has deployed a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 Orion (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea, announced Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark. “New Zealand has long supported ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Pacific trade and development agreement a reality
    Pacific regional trade and development agreement PACER Plus will enter into force in 60 days now that the required eight countries have ratified it. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker welcomed the announcement that the Cook Islands is the eighth nation to ratify this landmark agreement. “The agreement represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Securing a pipeline of teachers
    The Government is changing its approach to teacher recruitment as COVID-19 travel restrictions continue, by boosting a range of initiatives to get more Kiwis into teaching. “When we came into Government, we were faced with a teacher supply crisis,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “Over the past three years, we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Border exceptions for a small number of international students with visas
    The Government has established a new category that will allow 250 international PhD and postgraduate students to enter New Zealand and continue their studies, in the latest set of border exceptions. “The health, safety and wellbeing of people in New Zealand remains the Government’s top priority. Tight border restrictions remain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • First COVID-19 vaccine purchase agreement signed
    The Government has signed an agreement to purchase 1.5 million COVID-19 vaccines – enough for 750,000 people – from Pfizer and BioNTech, subject to the vaccine successfully completing all clinical trials and passing regulatory approvals in New Zealand, say Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods and Health Minister Chris Hipkins. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • International statement – End-to-end encryption and public safety
    We, the undersigned, support strong encryption, which plays a crucial role in protecting personal data, privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets and cyber security.  It also serves a vital purpose in repressive states to protect journalists, human rights defenders and other vulnerable people, as stated in the 2017 resolution of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ministry of Defence Biodefence Assessment released
    The Ministry of Defence has today released a Defence Assessment examining Defence’s role across the spectrum of biological hazards and threats facing New Zealand. Biodefence: Preparing for a New Era of Biological Hazards and Threats looks at how the NZDF supports other agencies’ biodefence activities, and considers the context of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020
    New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020 Hon David Parker’s response following Thomas Piketty and Esther Duflo. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, wherever in the world you might be. I first acknowledge the excellent thought provoking speeches of Thomas Piketty and Esther ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Kaipara Moana restoration takes next step
    A Memorandum of Understanding has been signed today at Waihāua Marae between the Crown, local iwi and councils to protect, restore and enhance the mauri of Kaipara Moana in Northland. Environment Minister David Parker signed the document on behalf of the Crown along with representatives from Ngā Maunga Whakahī, Ngāti ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand and Uruguay unite on reducing livestock production emissions
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor and Uruguayan Minister of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries Carlos María Uriarte have welcomed the launch of a three-year project that will underpin sustainable livestock production in Uruguay, Argentina, and Costa Rica.  The project called ‘Innovation for pasture management’ is led by Uruguay’s National Institute of Agricultural ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 3100 jobs created through marae upgrades
    Hundreds of marae throughout the country will be upgraded through investments from the Provincial Growth Fund’s refocused post COVID-19 funding to create jobs and put money into the pockets of local tradespeople and businesses, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta have announced. “A total ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Health volunteers recognised in annual awards
    Health Minister Chris Hipkins has announced 9 teams and 14 individuals are the recipients of this year’s Minister of Health Volunteer Awards.  “The health volunteer awards celebrate and recognise the thousands of dedicated health sector volunteers who give many hours of their time to help other New Zealanders,” Mr Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community COVID-19 Fund supports Pacific recovery
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says a total of 264 groups and individuals have successfully applied for the Pacific Aotearoa Community COVID-19 Recovery Fund, that will support Pacific communities drive their own COVID-19 recovery strategies, initiatives, and actions. “I am keen to see this Fund support Pacific ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community benefits from Māori apprenticeships
    Up to 50 Māori apprentices in Wellington will receive paid training to build houses for their local communities, thanks to a $2.75 million investment from the Māori Trades and Training Fund, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Ngāti Toa Rangatira Incorporated to provide its Ngā Kaimahi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Training fund supports Māori jobseekers
    Rapidly growing sectors will benefit from a $990,000 Māori Trades and Training Fund investment which will see Wellington jobseekers supported into work, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Sapphire Consultants Ltd. to help up to 45 Māori jobseekers into paid training initiatives over two years through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ruakura Inland Port development vital infrastructure for Waikato
    The Government is investing $40 million to develop an inland port at Ruakura which will become a freight super-hub and a future business, research and residential development for the Waikato, Urban Development and Transport Minister Phil Twyford, and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The funding has been has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Appointments made to Defence Expert Review Group
    Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today the establishment of an Expert Review Group to review a number of aspects of the New Zealand Defence Force’s (NZDF) structure, information management and record-keeping processes.  The Expert Review Group’s work arises out of the first recommendation from the Report of the Government’s Inquiry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • No active community cases of COVID-19
    There are no active community cases of COVID-19 remaining in the country after the last people from the recent outbreak have recovered from the virus, Health Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “This is a big milestone. New Zealanders have once again through their collective actions squashed the virus. The systems ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Clean energy upgrade for more public buildings
    More public buildings will be supported by the Government to upgrade to run on clean energy, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. Minister Shaw announced that Lincoln and Auckland universities will receive support through the Clean-Powered Public Service Fund to replace fossil fuel boilers. Southern, Taranaki, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Schools back donations scheme for the second year
    More schools have opted in to the donations scheme for 2021, compared to 2020 when the scheme was introduced. “The families of more than 447,000 students will be better off next year, with 94% of eligible schools and kura opting into the scheme,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Ruapehu cycle trails gets PGF boost
    The spectacular Mountains to Sea cycle trail in Ruapehu District will receive $4.6 million in funding from the Provincial Growth Fund for two additional trails, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This is an exciting development for the local community, and one that will provide significant economic opportunities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago