Why Revolutions Stumble and Fall

28 comments on “Why Revolutions Stumble and Fall ”

• Comments are now closed

1. dave brown 1

   15 February 2011 at 12:32 pm

   Analytical framework a bit stuffed Bill.
   http://redrave.blogspot.com/2011/02/egypt-egyptian-masses-throw-out-mubarak.html
   • Bill 1.1

     15 February 2011 at 2:27 pm

     Jeez. An unsubstantiated statement and a link. If you think my analytical framework is stuffed, explain why rather than indulging in troll like behaviour.

     I did read the link. And by and large, the conclusions are the same there as in the post.
     • dave brown 1.1.1

       15 February 2011 at 10:05 pm

       There is nothing in common between yours above and the Communist Workers League of Argentina’s article.

       First, the restoration of capitalism in SU, EE etc were counter-revolutions because the gains of the 1917 revolution were wiped out. Workers did have a democratic option which was to kick out the Stalinist bureaucracy that had usurped power and recover political control of state property. Unfortunately the uprisings against the Stalinists were steered towards ‘bourgeois democracy’ with the tragic consequences you note. But it is false to take the view that Tahrir Square can be put in the same category as the fall of the Berlin Wall. One is a revolution in process, the other was a counter-revolution.

       Second, the national revolutions in Africa that broke out immediately after WW2 went so far but as Fanon said, they succumbed to Western neo-colonialism and the assasination of socialist leaders such as Lumumba. There is a revolutionary history that can be uncovered in the current uprisings. So what we see in North Africa today are the continuation of these revolutions as the successor crony regimes are under attack by the masses. Will these revolutions again lead to a dead end of new dictatorships still serving imperialism, possibly, but not necessarily. Certainly not because there is no ‘democratic model’ to draw on. Revolutions produce a profound workers democracy as we saw in Tahrir square. The power of the working class which is only now being mobilised in Egypt can split the base of the army from the officer caste and take power. So the goal of the national revolution can be realised as a popular socialist revolution with its own workers democracy. The halting of the national revolution is not due lack of democracy but its suppression by the counter-revolution.

       Why is Latin America so different from Africa? The populist regimes that threw up nationalist leaders like Peron are no different in kind from say Nasser’s or Ben Bella’s regime. Latin America has yet to complete its national revolutions too. You could argue that the Bolivarian movement is an advance on anything that Africa can offer today but it still has to go a long way to go before the masses take control break the ties with imperialism and go all the way to socialist revolution.

       In each of the examples you use there are revolutionary and counter-revolutionary forces interacting. How far the revolution goes is not decided by a lack of democracy, but by counter-revolutionary suppression of the unity and democracy of the working class and other oppressed classes. A closer look at what is still happening in Egypt and still building from Algeria to Yemen will show this to be true.
       http://www.arabawy.org/
2. joe90 2

   15 February 2011 at 12:48 pm

   A NY Times article about the use of social media to organise and rouse the youth of Egypt and Tunisia.

   They fused their secular expertise in social networks with a discipline culled from religious movements and combined the energy of soccer fans with the sophistication of surgeons. Breaking free from older veterans of the Arab political opposition, they relied on tactics of nonviolent resistance channeled from an American scholar through a Serbian youth brigade — but also on marketing tactics borrowed from Silicon Valley.
   • Bored 2.1

     15 February 2011 at 1:02 pm

     Read that this morning: I was left with the feeling that the NY Times would say anything to give credit for events to the Americans…..cynical of me but…..
     • Colonial Viper 2.1.1

       15 February 2011 at 1:08 pm

       Although to be fair, the local Google exec who helped them (and who was put in solitary for 12 days by the authorities) made sure that they utilised all the latest branding approaches and viral marketing.
     • joe90 2.1.2

       15 February 2011 at 1:25 pm

       Cynical…perhaps..yet impossible without the ideas and technology..
       • Carol 2.1.2.1

         15 February 2011 at 1:32 pm

         Others give some credit to Al Jazeera for broadcasting, and posting online, images,videos and reports about the protests daily. AJ, though focuses on the role of social networking in the uprisings. I think there’s a bit of both.
         • joe90 2.1.2.1.1

           15 February 2011 at 2:04 pm

           Wael Ghonim: “Our Revolution Is Like Wikipedia”
   • Bill 2.2

     15 February 2011 at 2:24 pm

     Getting people to gather on the streets using electronic means is…well, I don’t see what everyone gets so excited about. Putting up posters used to work just the same but was admittedly limited by cost and time constraints.

     It’s what happens once people have gathered, or after people have gathered, that matters. No amount of texting or twittering or whatever facilitates a roiling flow or exchange of ideas and/or experiences that can aid a better understanding or lead to better informed or democratically inspired actions.
     • joe90 2.2.1

       15 February 2011 at 3:28 pm

       Sure Bill, perhaps social media is the new poster but this time they’ve been pasted up during daylight hours and won’t be torn down or painted over before anyone sees them.
       • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1

         15 February 2011 at 3:31 pm

         Plus harder to detain someone from over the interwebs 🙂

         And when you search them they aren’t carrying pails of glue and stacks of seditious posters 😀
         • joe90 2.2.1.1.1

           15 February 2011 at 3:37 pm

           Videoed in part in Tahrir square, صوت الحريه .(Voice of Freedom)

           The refrain is “I’m Not Turning Around.”
3. Bored 3

   15 February 2011 at 12:50 pm

   Perceptive comments Bill, there are as you mention realities that transcend the euphoria of changing a regime. Looking at the French and Russian revolutions both, like Egypt’s were based upon the masses of the people suffering whilst an elite sat like fat cats untouched above. Common to all three was as you mention was a bread crisis, and behind that a financial crisis.

   Like you I noted that the reality the morning after you have celebrated the downfall of the regime (that you held responsible for your hunger) is that you are still hungry. It is this demand to alleviate conditions that warped the French and Russian revolutions into their respective terrors and tyrannies. Resolving the issues takes time and reorganization, and the demand is immediate.

   If the West and the US in particular wish (for reasons of empire etc) for the Egyptian revolution to avoid a fall into anarchy and terror they would be well advised to ensure that the masses are fed.
4. Colonial Viper 4

   15 February 2011 at 1:15 pm

   Our own Tahrir Square moment

   Funny, that’s what Trotter just wrote about

   http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2011/02/could-it-happen-here-scenario-inspired.html
5. just saying 5

   15 February 2011 at 1:36 pm

   “In terms of our own situation, we might want to reflect on our own democratic experience and ask how we would or could move forward from our own Tahrir Square moment..

   If we are able to respond to the shocks of the various crises we face with far more trusting and interdependent involvement within our local communities, we might have a show. I know that’s my attitude and there are a number of like-minded people and groups moving in roughly the same direction. Hopefully momentum will continue to grow.

   Equally, we could become more belligerent, hostile, and suspicious, and we could live out a kind of Hobbesian nightmare. Or pockets of both.

   I fear we may lose you to Central or Latin America sometime soon Bill.

   I hope you find a way to keep on blogging, if you do.
   • Bill 5.1

     15 February 2011 at 2:12 pm

     I fear we may lose you to Central or Latin America sometime soon Bill.

     Nope. Far too damned hot! Far more interested in developing and applying variations on the Bolivarian Revolution and from my own past experiences to build a ‘good example’ that fits a New Zealand context.

     There’s an embrionic post dealing with such a proposal gestating somewhere in my computer. It’ll get up to ‘the standard’ by and by.
6. Draco T Bastard 6

   15 February 2011 at 2:05 pm

   Some people in Tahrir Square may well be speculating how to run and maintain necessary public systems democratically;

   Yeah, I’ve been doing the same thing. The different levels from individual to local to national cause problems. There are a couple problems; 1) ensuring that people have access to the information they need and 2) ensuring that decisions are then made upon that information rather than them being made upon opinion as happens now.

   We don’t have a democracy ATM but a dictatorship with a veneer of democracy.
7. rjs131 7

   15 February 2011 at 4:56 pm

   “the Arab world has nowhere to transition to. They have been under the yoke of western interests for a long, long time.”

   As an example, can you outline what Western interests have been dominating Syria?
   • Bill 7.1

     16 February 2011 at 11:26 am

     1949: CIA backs military coup deposing elected government of Syria.

     And today, the US regards Syria as a pariah state and is generally antagonistic towards it.

     So although economic sanctions and banning any aid etc might not amount to ‘dominating Syria’, it certainly amounts to bullying….curtailing or setting parameters within which Syria can act.

     Remember 2007 when the Israelis (and I’d suggest they got ‘clearance’ from the US) bombed, what the west claimed was a nuclear facility in Syrian territory? An act of war that drew no military response because….?

     And without US meddling…advancing massive amounts of military ‘aid’ to a belligerent Israel, the US’s ‘cop on the beat’… do you not think that the Golan Heights would have been returned to or succesfully reclaimed by Syria by now?
8. kaarearea 8

   15 February 2011 at 10:30 pm

   Hmm .. have a look at this ..

   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110213-egypt-distance-between-enthusiasm-and-reality?
   • Bill 8.1

     16 February 2011 at 11:34 am

     Thanks for that link. The following snippet offers what might seem a rather obvious insight.

     In Egypt, the military chose not to confront the demonstrators, not because the military itself was split, but because it agreed with the demonstrators’ core demand: getting rid of Mubarak. And since the military was the essence of the Egyptian regime, it is odd to consider this a revolution. (…)

     The crowd in Cairo, as telegenic as it was, was the backdrop to the drama, not the main feature. The main drama began months ago when it became apparent that Mubarak intended to make his reform-minded 47-year-old son, Gamal, lacking in military service, president of Egypt. This represented a direct challenge to the regime. In a way, Mubarak was the one trying to overthrow the regime.

     (my emphasis)
     • prism 8.1.1

       16 February 2011 at 4:19 pm

       The idea of Mubarak’s son taking over was referred to in news reports – it immediately made me think of North Korea. But it sounds a very different situation. Yet if he reduced the power base of the Army that would have been a major change. But where was the son’s power base to come from? His father must have had devious ways of maintaining his position. He would not have underestimated the Army’s liking for control.
   • joe90 8.2

     16 February 2011 at 11:56 am

     Thanks kaarearea.
9. randal 9

   18 February 2011 at 2:12 pm

   in the history of revolutions none has succeeded unless it has had either the backing of the army or the police.
   skip the romantic bushwa.
   the above is the truth.

Links to post

1. The Standard: posted on 14 February 2011 at 11:28 pm
2. Rik Tindall: posted on 15 February 2011 at 12:35 am
3. PRO Sales: posted on 15 February 2011 at 3:51 pm

• Comments are now closed

• Log in
• Donate
• Contribute post

• Articles RSS