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Will DunnoKeyo Lead National into Next Year’s Defeat?

Written By: - Date published: 4:02 pm, October 1st, 2013 - 80 comments
Categories: brand key, john key, Judith Collins, national, same old national, Steven Joyce - Tags:

National are going to lose the next election. That presents a significant problem for Team Blue’s office holders and caucus. Do they hope against hope that John Key can pull off an Oracle style upset, or at least, like Rudd, keep the damage to a minimum? Or do they act now and replace their biggest asset in the hope that NZ will let them regroup for a return in 2017?

Admittedly, I know less about the inner workings of the National Party than John Key does about the NZLP. But what I do know is that there will not be a democratic process. The decision will be made by a couple of faceless suits and a few senior MP’s, just as it was with the knifings of Jim Bolger and Rodney Hide. Key has at least survived his extended overseas holiday with the Queen without a coup taking place, so he’ll be happy about that. He’ll be much less happy about the current polling, which suggests he is going to leave the post as a loser, one way or the other.

There are 3 contenders for the leadership. Key might stay on, but frankly, what’s in it for him? Then there’s Piggy Muldoon lookalike Steven Joyce, who is competent, efficient and deadly dull. He appeals to the dry right in caucus, safe pair of hands, understands the urgent need for Government to subsidise business etc. Then there’s Judith Collins, whose every utterance apparently acts as Viagra to Tory fanbois these days. However, her major difficulty is actually those charmless blurtings, which seem to be a form of political Tourette’s.

If Key resigns or is rolled this year, then National are also faced with an electoral problem. If they do what Gillard did after Rudd was deposed and call an early election, it risks being hamstrung by the Asset Theft referendum, which presumably would be done at the same time. And they have no answer on the question of housing, which is a crucial point for the middle ground that decides elections.

But if they wait till next year to dump DunnoKeyo, they risk being so far down in the polls that they again face the Bill English scenario, where their voters accept that the election is lost, and tactically vote NZ First so Labour can potentially form a coalition with Winston rather than the Greens.

Knife-in-backAs I like a punt, I’d rate Key’s chances of leading the Nats into the next election as 40/60 at best. If he stays, he’ll lose, but like Helen Clark, he can look forward to sustained public popularity in the retirement years. Though, unlike Clark, he won’t want to do any actual work. A few months on the beach, a couple of media appearances at AB’s games and a few untaxing board postings should see him through the twilight years.

Collins may be the best bet to replace him for name recognition reasons alone and there is a small chance she could make a decent fist of it against the odds and at least keep most of the current MP’s in a job. Though it’s lovely to see Chris Tremain see the writing on the walls of his numerous rental properties. We’re bringing in the CGT just for you Chris. Enjoy!

Joyce really hasn’t got a hope, unless it’s as a caretaker until Bennett or Bridges are deemed to be ready for office.

Of course, I may have forgotten a contender or two. Readers might care to put up their own likely lads if I’ve missed any of the potential captains of Team Blue. But whoever eventually gets appointed to lead National, three things are certain. Key’s a goneburger, National’s toast and the Hollow Men are bringing nothing to the table.

Te Reo Putake

80 comments on “Will DunnoKeyo Lead National into Next Year’s Defeat? ”

  1. Puckish Rogue 1

    “Then there’s Judith Collins, whose every utterance apparently acts as Viagra to Tory fanbois these days”

    – Shes marvellous

    “Though, unlike Clark, he won’t want to do any actual work.”

    – Why should he?

    “But whoever eventually gets appointed to lead National, three things are certain. Key’s a goneburger, National’s toast and the Hollow Men are bringing nothing to the table.”

    – Right…its one thing to gee up the troops, bolster confidence and all that but theres a wee way to go before the election

    But well done for giving it go

    • Sable 1.1

      Colin’s is worse than Keys. An utter hatred of the common man and an abject lack of respect for basic human rights. A fat, smug, sneering bundle of self importance wrapped up in a twin set with pearls. NZ’s answer to Eva Peron…

    • lprent 1.2

      “Then there’s Judith Collins, whose every utterance apparently acts as Viagra to Tory fanbois these days”

      – Shes marvellous

      I think TRP just had his point made for him… Must be the whole stretched skin, unmoving face, botox look and generally toxic view on life that gets them aroused. I bet he likes zombies as well.

      • Anne 1.2.1

        I think TRP just had his point made for him…

        Got in before me.

        Joyce really hasn’t got a hope, unless it’s as a caretaker until Bennett or Bridges are deemed to be ready for office.

        God forbid… you’re kidding. God defend NZ!

        Love your style TRP. More posts please.

        • Te Reo Putake 1.2.1.1

          Cheers, Anne, will try, time permitting. As for Bennett and Bridges, I do think they are the best the Nats can do. Despite having a large caucus, the talent pool is mighty shallow. Hold your nose and have a look: http://www.national.org.nz/MPList.aspx

          My best guess is that, post Key, they will go for a caretaker and see if any of the class of ’08 make an impression in the medium term. In a way, losing Simon Power is as much a problem for the Nats as losing Steve Maharey was for Labour; the obvious successor is gone and the alternatives can’t muster a majority in caucus. That’s no longer a problem for Labour, with the democratisation of the process, but the Nats are too corporatist to go down that route. So no easy answers because they are left with pretenders not contenders.

  2. Tamati 2

    I admire your confidence, but to say “National is going to lose the election” is more than just counting chickens. Key will live and die by the 2014 election, whatever happends it will be the last election he contests. He still has pretty decent personal popularity (>50%) so I can’t see that Nats knifing him. If, however, it was shown he knew about Kim Dotcom then he’ll have to go.

    • mac1 2.1

      Tamati, inspired by your last four words.

      “Put your sweet lips a little closer to the phone
      Let’s pretend GCSB thinks we’re all alone
      I’ll tell the Man that the fanmail box is way down low
      And you can tell your friend there with you, Key’ll have to go.”

    • Tangled_up 2.2

      +1000

      Would be good if it does happen; but a few good poll results doesn’t mean that National have lost the election. And Key is the only thing keeping National in the game. People prefer Labour’s policies .

    • Mickey 2.3

      Agreed Tamati, I can’t believe the number of lefties who think Key is a gonna. They make the same mistake as the past 3 labour leaders, they under estimate him.
      He is rat cunning with deep pockets. While he is surely concerned about the recent polls,
      you can bet the whole caucus is planning their election offensive like a military operation.
      As for his leadership, he is 100% safe at least until after the election.
      The left seem drunk on a few poll results and a new leader. Question is will they wake up with a hangover.

      [lprent: Please try to keep to a single handle and email. Then moderators won’t have to spend time releasing you from auto-moderation. ]

  3. Sable 3

    Good article but what has Helen Clarke done that’s so wonderful, aside from drawing a $300K plus TAX FREE salary from the UN? Frankly both Clarke and Keys have been poison to this country and have shown there is an urgent need for political reform that goes well beyond MMP.

    • Tamati 3.1

      I follow New Zealand politics quite closely but I don’t seem to remember any important politicians with the surnames Clarke or Keys. Can you help me out?

      • McFlock 3.1.1

        Besides that, I very much doubt key will do anything to garner the attention of forbes after he’s done in our little backwater.

    • Colonial Viper 3.2

      aside from drawing a $300K plus TAX FREE salary from the UN?

      Please let us know where you got that “information” from.

      • chris73 3.2.1

        Yeah, I’d have thought shes on over 300K for doing sweet FA (still a good gig though)

        • Colonial Viper 3.2.1.1

          Trust you to consider helping 500M of the world’s poorest and most distressed people as “doing sweet FA”; it says more about you than it says about Helen Clark.

          • Kevin Welsh 3.2.1.1.1

            CV, the money is only justified if its a RWNJ in charge. Lefties are meant to work pro-bono and wear sack-cloth and ashes.

      • Lanthanide 3.2.2

        UN employees don’t pay US income tax, and hence don’t pay any tax at all.

      • Sable 3.2.3

        That would be telling Viper but I have been told its on the money. Even I was shocked….

      • Colonial Viper 3.2.4

        I think you guys all have to learn a little bit about what you are talking about first of all.

        In essence, the gross pay of all UN staff is reduced by an internal tax, the “staff assessment”, which then results in the net pay for the employee.

        http://www.un.org/Depts/oppba/accounts/tax/faqs/faq02.htm

  4. Clement Pinto 4

    Key is gone burger and National is doomed to be in the opposition after the next election.

    GCSB LOUSY LAW, THE ASSET SALES STUPIDITY and THE HOUSING HORROR have cooked National, ACT’ and UF’s goose. The rising popularity of Mr Cunliffe and the Labour party is testament to that.

    The knives will be sharpening and the balaclavas will get worn. Now it will be survival of the quickest. Can’t wait to see who that is! Could it be Shanks or Melissa?

  5. vto 5

    There is no way it will happen until after the election

    Betcha two shiny skycity chips

  6. Colonial Viper 6

    Of course, I may have forgotten a contender or two. Readers might care to put up their own likely lads if I’ve missed any of the potential captains of Team Blue.

    Collins, Joyce and English top the named candidates on iPredict.

    Bennett as a 1c outsider. English on a whole 11c, believe it or not.

    • vto 6.1

      English would be a good holding captain. While none of the real contenders are willing to step up he could simply provide a steady hand on the helm while they sort their shit out. Then he could stand aside for their own form of primary and voila – headlines, smooth transition, kudos all around.

      • Colonial Viper 6.1.1

        Yes. Tories are great with their corporate succession planning. Interim CEO, if you will. And, whoever takes the crown, will need the support of English’s block of votes. So I think he is likely to go back to being deputy after the permanent leader is installed.

        • Pete 6.1.1.1

          I think English has been rehabilitated from his last stint as leader. He might win the leadership should Key chose to resign, Lange-Palmer style. But if he launches a coup from being deputy PM, it would be seen as a particularly severe act of betrayal by many in National’s core constituency and I’m sure a lot will stay home on Election Day. If it turns into a fairly open race, I think Tony Ryall could be one to watch. Health hasn’t been a major concern in this term so he’s certainly got a measure of political nous.

  7. Tamati 7

    More importantly, what colour drapes should David Cunliffe hang on the ninth floor of the Beehive?

    Perhaps a nice blood red will do nicely.

  8. Richard29 8

    Sorry, I just don’t see Key standing down or getting knifed before the next election. In personal popularity and name recognition he is head and shoulders above the other possible contenders. Critically, given that its the party vote that matters, his personal popularity is higher than that of the National party (he is dragging the blue team up not dragging them down) without him and his folksy everyman charm (which is admittedly losing it’s shine after 5 years), the Nats are dog tucker…
    There are four scenarios where the Nats stay in power:
    1) National holds but does not increase it’s vote (very possible) but voter turnout drops. This is what happened last time, it is less likely this time both because some former Nats supporters will be tiring after 6 years and also because the opposition under Cunliffe is more motivated and looks more like a government in waiting. The next election is a competitive race – competitive races have better turnout.
    2) National increases it’s vote percentage but not at the expense of it’s potential coalition partners. This is extremely unlikely, the Nats already increased their vote percentage ever so marginally at the last election at the expense of wiping out their coalition partners (total right support dropped). If people have not been convinced by National for the last 6 years they aren’t about to suddenly start in 2014.
    3) National’s coalition partners increasing but not at the expense of National. Most scenarios here are unlikely (Green and Labour voters aren’t suddenly going to vote for Act or United Future). The two ways that this could happen is the successful launch of a centrist socially and economically liberal party similar to the German Free Democrats that polls well above 5% and takes votes equally from Labour and the Nats. This would require a load of money and some well known faces to lead it – there is no sign of this happening before the next election. The other possibility is that Colin Craig sweeps the social conservative vote away from Winston. This is highly unlikely under normal circumstances (Winston is a loveable rogue and Colin is a Christian fundamentalist with no personality) but could happen with a strong wedge issue and lots of media coverage. The tactical withdrawal of the euthanasia bill this week was Labour immunising themselves against this possibility.
    4) The final option is a rerun of 1996. Winston leads everybody to believe he will support the Labour led government in waiting but then after the election decides that he’s not interested in playing third fiddle behind the Greens and alongside Mana and would prefer to be Deputy PM in a National led government. This is probably the most likely option – in fact I would argue that it’s almost impossible for National to form a government in 2014 without Winston. Key has notably not precluded the possiblity of working with Winston as he’s done previously. This scenario poses a challenge to Labour, the best way of dealing with it is trying to force Winston and Key to say the will not work together, when they refuse to do this start using the term “National/NZ First Coalition” about 100 times a day during the campaign causing both NZ First supporters to defect to Labour to keep National out and National voters to defect to Labour to keep NZ First out.

    In short, there are possibilities for Key to win next year, but the safe money is on Labour. The challenge for Labour is winning with a strong enough majority that they can govern alone with the Greens. Once you start having to pull together a 3-5 party coalition including the Greens and NZ First things would get very messy very quickly.

    • Lanthanide 8.1

      “Sorry, I just don’t see Key standing down or getting knifed before the next election. ”

      It depends entirely on what they’re polling, I think. If they consistently polled around 30%, he’d be goneburger I’m sure. Even consistent polling in 35-37% would probably kill him. I’m assuming in this scenario that their vote will have deserted them to the left, rather than to the conservatives/NZ1st/coalition partners.

      Given the leaked poll of 50% GL vs 39% Nats, it seems likely that the Nats aren’t going to be in a position to cobble together a coalition.

      • Colonial Viper 8.1.1

        A consistent 39% in the polls will end Key’s political career no doubt. That translates into 9-10 National MPs goneburger, and their caucus is not going to sit back and just let that happen.

        The only thing which will keep the wolves at bay at that point is if Key convinces everyone that the loss will be much worse without him.

        • Richard29 8.1.1.1

          “The only thing which will keep the wolves at bay at that point is if Key convinces everyone that the loss will be much worse without him.”

          And that is demonstrably the case. Key’s latest approval has dropped into the mid 50’s – if the party drops below the 40’s that’s all the more reason to keep him on and minimise the scale of the defeat. He is the Kevin Rudd candidate – more popular than his party and their best shot at another term.

          Personally I would be extremely surprised to see the Nats poll below 40% in 2014. They might be polling low now – but the triumphalism about the inevitable turning of the tide is premature. A big part of the drop now will be a strategic choice by the Nats to ride out the unpopularity in 2013 so they can start fresh in election year 2014. This is why they are selling Meridian in a single tranche with deferred payment (rather than 2 tranches stretching it into next year). They set an early date for the asset sales referendum and then I would expect that late 2013 or early 2014 that they will announce that after Genesis they will be conducting no more asset sales. This will neutralise the issue leading into 2014 and is just a pragmatic recognition that they Wonston won’t support asset sales and they can’t govern without him in 2014 so why should they take the political hit of announcing further sales they will be unable to execute.

          • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1.1

            Yes agree I too think that National strategists view a Blue/Winston coalition as their main chance next year.

            Time to start up the National/NZ First coalition meme.

            • Richard29 8.1.1.1.1.1

              That meme will be very powerful – the number of voters who despise Winston vastly outnumber the ones who love him.

              Key proved in 2008 and again in 2011 that there are at least as many votes to be won by committing not to work with Winston as you get by working with him.

              Cunliffe’s challenge is that if Labour and the Greens end up polling at 49% he may not have any choice but to do a deal with Winston – so how does he get the message out there that Key will work with Winston and this is a terrible thing without looking like a hypocrite.

              One potentially risky option would be that Cunliffe says he will not have Winston in his cabinet or a ministerial post (because he could do without the drama) but if he needs the numbers he might be willing to advance specific NZ First policies in exchange for confidence and supply (or abstention on C&S to deliver a Red/Green majority). This should be acceptable to most voters – the antipathy to NZ First is mostly about the personality not policy – moderate voters would be quite accepting of Labour implementing NZ First policies to support the elderly and a more interventionist trade policy.

              Winston has a lot more to lose from National than Labour (he’ll suffer a backlash in his support base and his position will be less sustainable because he’d be propping up an unpopular third term government) as such, if he is kingmaker, he’s not going to go into coalition with Key for anything less than Deputy PM. Key knows this and will be unable to match the pledge to exclude Winston from ‘the baubles of office’…

              • lprent

                Cunliffe’s challenge is that if Labour and the Greens end up polling at 49% he may not have any choice but to do a deal with Winston

                In that case I suspect that they’d do a deal with Mana. 🙂

                The reality is that each party does its electioneering and talk of post-election deals are rather meaningless prior to the election. Because at the end of the day a government gets formed out of whatever *seats* each party has in government. The public will determine that and the MP’s will have to figure out how to form a government from what they are given.

                Grandstanding prior to the election and saying that you will or will not work with a party and/or politician is irrelevant… It will eventually stop when some dickhead politician does that and effectively forces a new election. Their party will be decimated by an irate public being forced to vote because of a fool, and we won’t hear that meme again.

                Key proved in 2008 and again in 2011 that there are at least as many votes to be won by committing not to work with Winston as you get by working with him.

                I’d seriously question that. In case you hadn’t noticed, in 2011 National only just scraped over the line to form a government with a minimal majority. NZFirst nearly doubled their vote. In large part I suspect (from conversations with NZF voters in 2011) that John Key’s ringing rejection of the possibility of working with Winston merely encouraged people to vote for NZFirst so they could make him eat his words.

                The constituency that NZFirst represents aren’t exactly enamoured with dickhead politicians posturing like fools. Winston has made a political career out of exploiting the alienation that a large segment of the voting public has with foolish politicians from the mainstream parties.

                • Tracey

                  Under MMP coaltions are inevitable (as has been shown in NZ). Accordingly the electorate has a right to know who their preferred party will climb into bed with prior to an election. I would be mortified if Dunne was given a seat in cabinet in a Labour/Green or Labour Govt in return for confidence and supply.

                  Be up front about the possibilities ahead of time.

          • Te Reo Putake 8.1.1.1.2

            I like your logic about the timing of sales, Richard. If they do announce an end to the program, I think you are correct that it opens up room for a deal with Winston, who, as history shows, cannot be trusted. I also suspect you are right about the polling; even if my speculation about some Nat voters turning to NZF to give Labour a conservative option for coalition is correct I don’t think that will drop National too far into the 30’s. However, it would probably leave the right a seat or three shy of forming a Government themselves, particularly if some of the vote switching is wasted on Colin’s Craig lot.

            • Chooky 8.1.1.1.2.1

              imo….as Winston is getting older …and the Greens are more established as a party ….. they are not in competition any more

              …….If necessary Winston could be happy with a Labour coalition govt with the Greens…and not interfere …as long as he gets Minister of Foreign Affairs , which he excelled at in Helen Clark’s govt…..( he would only be replacing Shearer after-all)

              While many call him a conservative and untrustworthy , Winston has often been more aligned with the Left than the Right on issues ….eg GCSB bill, sale of State Assets, foreign ownership of land and housing….and dont forget he brought down National once before on sale of state assets

              However Winston’s party may not even make it into parliament….many will now be happy to vote Labour with Cunliffe as leader….and many also will not see the need to vote strategically for NZFirst in order to help the Left block back into power

              Whatever the case, I think it is premature to prejudge the outcome and force and alienate Winnie into the toxic and doomed embrace of Nact….which he has clearly so often shown he despises.

  9. outofbed 9

    start using the term “National/NZ First Coalition” about 100 times a day during the campaign causing both NZ First supporters to defect to Labour to keep National out and National voters to defect to Labour to keep NZ First

    Brilliant just brilliant

  10. bad12 10

    Obviously with Slippery having just been off to dear old England to behave in front of Her Maj ‘like a Galloping Colonial Clod’ and then racing over to the UN in New York to again stuff His foot deeply in His mouth earning Him the title from the normally starstruck Clare Trevett of ‘the Antipodean Mouse that roared’ the PM isn’t having a great month,

    With Labour’s, and rumor has it, Nationals own internal polling more or less matching the previous published public poll it was the perfect opportunity for Judith Collins to mount the bloody palace coup,

    That She didn’t shows that She hasn’t as yet got the numbers to roll Slippery which also shows that the National back bench hasn’t as yet been totally spooked by the numbers,

    Should National drop to 39% in the upcoming polls and stay there into early next year ‘thing’s in the National Party Caucus are likely to become quite tense as the backbench begin to realize which of them will be culled in the November 2014 rout,

    Slippery might want to, after February 2014 stick strictly to staying home as either Collins or my pick for the ‘dark horse’ of the rat-pack Maurice Williamson might just be able to gather the numbers to roll a Prime Minister who to all extents and purposes looks and behaves like a spent force…

    • srylands 10.1

      “That She didn’t shows that She hasn’t as yet got the numbers ”

      Now you are extending your bizarre capitalisation to female pronouns. What the fuck?

      • srylands 10.1.1

        Are you German?

        • bad12 10.1.1.1

          No SSlands i am not, the word German tho, when broken into it’s syllables, is a perfect explanation of your personal position among humanity,

          A man you are obviously not, most here tho would associate you with the word Germ,

          Stop Trolling and address the Post…

        • the pigman 10.1.1.2

          Because being German would certainly invalidate all of what bad says, right? Oh srylands, are you Monagesque, Caymanian or a Luxembourger?

    • Anne 10.2

      …which also shows that the National back bench hasn’t as yet been totally spooked by the numbers,…

      Of course not. Given the average IQ of your typical National back-bencher, I’d say it will be another couple of months before it dawns on them what the figures represent. I mean, their political superiors are not likely to tell them so they’ve got to work it out for themselves.

      • chris73 10.2.1

        I’m sorry but are you calling into question Nationals back benches IQ? Maybe we should discuss how long it took Cunliffe to get the leadership of Labour..?

  11. hellonearthis 11

    John Banks could swoop in, now that Act is dead and take the National leadership.

    Too soon for Simon Power to come back?

  12. Tamati, if it could be proven the PM lied to Serious Fraud Office in 1991, then lied to voters about it, aided by, if not complicit, at the very least incompetent fourth estate in lead up to 2008 election, would Key have to stand down then?

    • Clement Pinto 12.1

      What lie? and how can it be proved?

      • Clement certainly. Key said to SFO investigators in 1991 his resignation date from Elders Merchant Finance was 24 June 1988. He said he could remember a lunch from 1988 that was of interest to the SFO because it was his farewell lunch. He was leaving Elders to go to Bankers Trust in Auckland. However Key told media in 2007/2008 that he had worked with Andrew Krieger while they were both at Bankers Trust, Key in Auckland and Krieger in New York. Key himself said he recalls receiving a phone call from Krieger when he started with Bankers Trust where Krieger asked about New Zealand’s monetary supply. Gavin Walker, now Chair of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, and ex CEO of Bankers Trust in New Zealand, said Key was responsible for all the trades Krieger and other traders at the New York branch were putting across the Auckland branch’s trading desk. One small issue. Krieger resigned from Bankers Trust in February 1988. So did Key work with Krieger and lie to the SFO or did Key not work with Krieger but lied to New Zealand when he and Walker discussed at length with media Key’s working relationship with Krieger, calling it ‘lucrative’. To believe the latter you’d have to believe Gavin Walker was complicit in the Krieger angle. PoliticallyCorrected < — with links to articles, interviews, news reports, etc, to support my claims.

      • Clement certainly – except the entire post I just posted was marked as spam when I tried editing the two links with the post grr (hopefully the admins might find it).

        Anyway .. http://politicallycorrected.webs.com <—- links, audio, interviews, media reports, etc backing up my claims John Key lied to the Serious Fraud Office in May 1991, then lied to media in 2008 when that statement was brought into question. The lie is the resignation date – 24 June 1988.

        Gavin Walker, was the CEO of Bankers Trust in New Zealand and is now Chair of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund. For Key's statement to the SFO to be 'true', Gavin Walker would have had to have lied to media in bios on Key in the lead up the 2008 election where the two of them discuss at length Key's working relationship with currency raider, Andrew Krieger.

        Reality is Krieger resigned from Bankers Trust in February 1988, retiring from the currency markets for some two years altogether in June of the same year – respectively some six months, and two months prior to the date given in Key's statement.

        Key told media he recalled getting a call from Krieger when he (Key) started with Bankers Trust and Walker stated how Key was responsible for all the trades Krieger and others at the New York branch were putting across Key's branch of Bankers Trust in Auckland, soon making the Auckland branch the no. 1 dealing room in the country.

        [lprent: I scan the residual spam several times a day. ]

        • Clement Pinto 12.1.2.1

          Ok, thanks for your detailed reply. May be you should ask SFO to investigate/clarify or ask opposition MPs to ask some questions in parliament. Have you done that and if yes, what was the outcome?

  13. Lanthanide 13

    “it risks being hamstrung by the Asset Theft referendum, which presumably would be done at the same time”

    Hasn’t that already been scheduled for some time in December? So unless you’re suggesting a *very* early election, this shouldn’t be an issue for the nats.

  14. BrucetheMoose 14

    Though the chances of it eventuating are as remote as a bag of lollies surviving more than five minutes in a school yard, but I am sure his Lordship and Supreme Ruler of Canterbury, Gerry Brownlee, has his eye on the potential job of top dog. He must entertain the notion, already being the king of his own domain. But surely the Natzis wouldn’t be that stupid. You can only hope.

  15. coge 15

    Not bloody likely, in my opinion.

  16. kenny 16

    My pick for leader would be Amy Adams – a very capable person from what I have seen in parliament and a very good, clear speaker who doesn’t panic and is full of self-confidence.

    • fender 16.1

      Yes, yes I’ve seen her in action too, and it appears Amy has the necessary nastiness required to lead the National Nasty Party, maybe not as nasty as Judith, but plenty of potential nevertheless.

  17. Blue 17

    It’s going to be seriously fun to watch how this all plays out. Key is the only asset National has, and once he either leaves or is knifed, the Nats really have no one to replace him.

    Joyce is more of a right-hand man than a leader, Collins appeals to (some)(strange) men with the ballbuster thing but women can’t stand her. The very idea of Bennett being PM is laughable.

    English would probably be the only credible contender, if you could forget what a huge mess he made of it last time (and most probably can’t).

    • chris73 17.1

      Judith Collins is marvelous but I’d advise her to let someone else be the leader and then when they lose the next election (if Labour win the next election they’ll get two terms) JC (has a ring to it) can lead National to victory once the NZ public realize just how bad the Greens policies are

      • Colonial Viper 17.1.1

        (if Labour win the next election they’ll get two terms)

        LOL, four is the most likely.

    • risildowgtn 17.2

      Agreed esp with the top line

      Key IS the National Partay….. and they know it…

      hence their fanboi Hooten doin hootenanny shrieks wah wah the world is ending

      cos for them it is.

  18. tricldrown 18

    Just a week or 2 ago the right wing fundamentalists were all bravado no they are on the back foot they are lost for words .
    But never underestimate the right!
    With a growing economy and short memories the voters might just stick with ponceKey!

  19. Rumour Willis 19

    Key will never, ever be rolled. He’s all they have. It’s far more likely that if the polling isn’t great, he’ll petulantly throw in the towel and say he’s “done all I wanted to do SLUUUURP” and leave a “winner” because he’s the type of pathological nutbar who can never be seen to lose.

    I still think he has a good chance of winning, though, sadly. This country’s never been good at seeing him for what he is. As soon as he first appeared in 2006 or whenever I thought “THIS is the best they can do?” He’s like the bad guy from a movie who wants to tear down an orphanage to build a nuclear waste factory!

    • chris73 19.1

      “This country’s never been good at seeing him for what he is”

      – Ever consider that maybe NZ do see him for what he is and thats why hes so popular…

      • Colonial Viper 19.1.1

        What is he c73? A flash and dash showman and money marketer?

      • KJT 19.1.2

        When almost every news article breathlessly says, “but John Key says” as if he is some sort of oracle, no wonder the public thinks he is OK.

        Headlines like “John Keys says Cunliffe”. “MOBIE is doing…………., but Key says………….”. Are published almost every day.

    • gobsmacked 19.2

      Rumour Willis + 1

      Key will not be rolled, or step down for any political/electoral reason. Of course he might quit for any number of other reasons, but it won’t be because of dissatisfaction from his own backers. They need him, and plans B, C and D have hardly started (stand by for targeting, demonising, wedge-driving, all the usual tricks). Their easy ride is over, but history is full of incumbents fighting back to win – dirty if they have to.

      I expect Labour/Greens to win the election, but it will be one hard fight, and wishful thinking doesn’t help (and your prediction track record isn’t great, TRP, as you know).

      • Te Reo Putake 19.2.1

        Actually, I’m not big on wishful thinking, gs and I’m not discounting the amount of work that will need to be done to make sure of the result. As I do every election, I’ll putting as much time and effort in as I possibly can to get a progressive government elected. I’d like to think this post is a small part of that work.

        Re: my track record, I’d also like to think I’ve caused the TAB as much grief as they’ve caused me over the years! I was certainly right that Shearer wouldn’t be rolled, and, ultimately, I suspect Key will resign in a similar fashion and probably for the same reason; a lack of traction in the polls.

        My gut feeling is that Key is too ego driven to want go down with the ship and, like the Captain of the Costa Concordia, he’ll hit the life raft as soon as its obvious there’s no way back.

  20. Progressive Paradox 20

    Hmm I’d be wary of declaring victory so prematurely or writing off a future leader of the Nats. In 2007, I remember a few in the Left writing off Key, I wouldn’t underestimate our opponents. Although in all likelihood I think it would be Colins who would be Shipley all over again or Joyce would just be another English.

    • chris73 20.1

      Collins has more to offer then Shipley ever did, can’t disagree with your assessment of Joyce though…no charisma at all

      • bad12 20.1.1

        Judith Collins has something to offer, pray tell, do expand upon that wont you, even if only for the humor content…

        • chris73 20.1.1.1

          Shes very good at pushing the right buttons:

          Boy racers
          Union ACC scams
          Slow judges

          Shes a very good politician

          • Pascal's bookie 20.1.1.1.1

            So why doesn’t she show up in Pref PM polls? And why did she do so poorly in that poll about who should be the next Nat leader?

            She’s all talk.

            Remember when she sent out a press release on ministerial letter head saying thacomments impugning the Minister’s office are taken very seriously, and that if no apology was forthcoming from Mallard, Little, and RNZ then she would sue?

            Remember how Mallard et al said ‘Whatevs. Sue away then, and we’ll be paying all our costs”?

            and then she went quiet until just after the next cabinet meeting when she too suddenly declared that she would be paying her costs, and that it, all of a sudden, wasn’t about the Minister of ACC but about Judith Collins personally? hahaha. read the Cabinet maunual about how it is decided whether or not a Minister will get taxpayer funded legal defence money to make sense of that mess. She wanted it, cabinet told her she was dreaming.

            And then she backed out of the court case getting only a weak-arsed statement about things that were said in the house, and so were therefore protected anyway? Complete and utter backdown.

            She’s not only weak, but impulsive, arrogant and stupid. A fatal mix.

            She reckons whaleoil is one of the best journos in the country right up until he killed the Truth, and just yesterday she was saying how Michie was going to get the nod over Nash in Napier, no doubt more bullshit fed to here by Lusky fail parade and his pet dolphin that she was stupid enough to tweet, making her look like a fool.

            I mean she can’t even get through a patsy question in the house without reading the answers. She’s been there long enough but every time, she reads the things out, even the ‘jokes’

            She’s hopeless I’m afraid, all sizzle and no sausage, son. It’s a shame you can’t see though it, but the rest of the country can, hence the lack of poll support.

          • Te Reo Putake 20.1.1.1.2

            What has she actually achieved, Chris? She’s hardly a figure of fear among boy racers or judges. And I’ve no idea what you mean by union ACC scams, which suggests that whatever it was, it hasn’t made an impact. I think her major asset is that she vaguely reminds some Tories of a certain age of Margaret Thatcher. But that’s just wishful (or lustful?) thinking.

          • bad12 20.1.1.1.3

            Right, boy racers must of all shook in their boots over the car that didn’t get crushed giving evidence to the claim by many that Collins has got even more vacant space upstairs than Slippery the current PM has,

            Shook with laughter that is…

          • Delia 20.1.1.1.4

            Anyone know what union ACC scams are? Are you just making things up Chris. Do tell.

  21. Fisiani 21

    All these wet dreams about Key…..only problem is that internal polling is still showing 47% support for National. Still agree however that Election 2014 is Labour’s to lose due to MMP.

    [lprent: Whose “internal polling” and of whom?. Polling the contributors to the Waitemata Trust really isn’t that good a polling technique for estimating the outcome of an election. ]

    • Colonial Viper 21.1

      yeah it’s a bitch when you have actual democracy, one which requires a plurality of the votes cast to be able to form a government.

      .only problem is that internal polling is still showing 47% support for National.

      I actually have it at 48.5%. I think you have an out of date memo.

    • mac1 21.2

      Internal polling of the National party still showing 47%? They should be worried……….

    • Tracey 21.3

      “Internal polling”. You mean Key still has 47% support in his caucus?

  22. Craig 22

    Either Joyce or Collins. And then watch the fireworks as the two of them clash over who gets to be alpha…

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