Alexander Gillespie complains that kiwis are not being given answers on foreign policy in the election. Given the state of flux in the world, and the questions he poses, it is probably just as well. The answers might all be dangerous.
Will New Zealand join AUKUS Pillar 2 he asks? It is supposed to be about access to technology, but nobody really knows. And will it be the best technology? I wouldn’t bet on it, given what is shown by the unfolding war in Ukraine.
Gillespie would like to know if New Zealand would join in if the US provokes a civil war in China over Taiwan, which we say officially is part of it? Australia looks like being the US proxy in this one, and they are our only ally. It is only some officials, media and academics who are in support of us joining in such a war, and they will not be involved in any fight. Chris Hipkins has said that New Zealand’s approach should be diplomatic, and this is supported by Greens and Te Pati Maori. It makes absolute sense.
Will we continue to send expensive ships to play chicken with China on their borders, Gillespie asks? In the China Seas, where freedom of navigation is undoubtedly more important to them than to us! The bigger danger will be if our expensive Poseidons start circling around China. It would be good to know if that is part of their envisaged role, so we can ask why.
Gillespie has noticed that “the Pacific is also in a state of geopolitical flux.” He then asks “how does New Zealand respond to the ‘comprehensive partnership‘ just announced between China and Timor-Leste covering military exchanges, training and exercises.” It is well worth reading the linked statement of the Chinese readout; it has 15 clauses, mostly concerned with mutual development. Clause 10 is the only one which deals with military exchanges, and it states:
The two nations agreed to enhance high-level military exchanges, strengthen cooperation in areas such as personnel training, equipment technology, the conduct of joint exercises and training. The government of Timor-Leste highly commended the Peace Ark Hospital ship from the Chinese Navy which performed “Mission Harmony-2023” in Timor-Leste from September 3rd to the 10th, which provided humanitarian medical service to local Timorese people.
We should be concerned about Chinese hospital ships visiting East Timor? The only possible response would seem to be “good on you.” We have been engaged in Timor before, but I must say I am much more concerned about the massive permanent build-up of US offensive forces on the other side of the Timor Straits, with B-52 nuclear bombers on permanent rotation, stationed there to diversify possible targets for China.
Then there is the Ukraine. Gillespie states that ‘New Zealand is not directly involved,’ and if you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. Our FiveEyes analysts are interpreting data from the reconnaissance aircraft constantly circling Ukraine, and feeding the information to the frontline troops. As for the military training, Ukrainians are complaining that it is not relevant to what they are faced with on the battlefield. As the Cabinet briefing papers noted, training in England is really a retention incentive for bored and underpaid troops.
As for a peace deal, the window for that was slammed shut long ago, by Boris Johnson’s disastrous intervention in April 2022 negotiations in Turkiye. The slaughter particularly on the Ukrainian side is appalling, and it is way over time for the fighting to stop. That is how wars really end: in surrender, or in the US case as in Vietnam and Afghanistan, by abandonment.
Finally, Gillespie thinks we should know by how much and when military spending would “increase.” Its ‘Buy American” time again, with some US politicians skiting about how the war has been good for America. Interestingly, what this war has revealed is how poor the US equipment is compared to Russia’s. The US military have just announced that they are revisiting development of the M1 Abrams tank. It’s too heavy. Australia recently bought a hundred or so of an earlier version; one wondered where they were going to be used and how they were going to be transported there. Now they are obsolete, They only cost A$2.5 billion for tanks and support vehicles. Earlier tanks have never been used in battle.
This election campaign has rightly focused on cost of living issues, and economic policy. The last thing we need is more money wasted on expensive weaponry.
I do however absolutely agree with Dr Gillespie that New Zealand’s foreign policy needs some really serious debate. But it should not be held in the election bubble.
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