Yes, next Roy Morgan out

Written By: - Date published: 9:54 am, July 12th, 2010 - 93 comments
Categories: Politics, polls - Tags:

In case you didn’t spot it in the papers (who for reason seem to be covering it this time), the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has strengthened to 58.5% (up 3%), comprising National Party 53% (up 2.5%), Maori Party 3% (unchanged), ACT NZ 2% (up 1%) and United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%):

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is well up, 7.5pts to 144 with 65% (up 4.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 21% (down 3%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

Support for Opposition Parties has fallen to 41.5% (down 3%); Labour Party 29% (down 4%), Greens 8.5% (down 1%), New Zealand First 3% (up 1.5%), and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

NEWS : Morgan Poll :
National-led Government (58.5%, up 3%) further ahead of Opposition Parties (41.5%);
National up 2.5% to 53%, Labour down 4% to 29%

Finding No. 4531 – This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 849 electors from June 21 July 4, 2010. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.: July 09, 2010

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has strengthened to 58.5% (up 3%), comprising National Party 53% (up 2.5%), Maori Party 3% (unchanged), ACT NZ 2% (up 1%) and United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%).

Support for Opposition Parties has fallen to 41.5% (down 3%); Labour Party 29% (down 4%), Greens 8.5% (down 1%), New Zealand First 3% (up 1.5%), and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held today the National Party would be clearly returned to Government.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is well up, 7.5pts to 144 with 65% (up 4.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 21% (down 3%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

93 comments on “Yes, next Roy Morgan out ”

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  1. Anne 1
    12 July 2010 at 10:05 am

    “In case you didn’t spot it in the papers (who for reason seem to be covering it this time)…”

    Yes. Interesting that. On Saturday one of the ZB network stations made it one of the top news stories of the day – every hour and on the half hour. Assume it was widely reported elsewhere. Can’t say I’ve ever noticed any MSM interest in the Morgan Poll before!!

    • Emp 1.1
      12 July 2010 at 12:04 pm

      Oh yeah good one so it’s a media conspiracy. Maybe you didn’t notice other media reporting on the morgan poll before because you only look for good news about labour. Sorry to tell you there isn’t any.

      Instead of being ignorant if you cared to look for previous reporting of the morgan poll in the herald, you would find it. http://www.google.co.nz/search?source=ig&hl=en&rlz=&=&q=morgan+poll+site%3A.nzherald.co.nz&aq=o&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai= there’s a good start.

      • Anne 1.1.1
        12 July 2010 at 1:14 pm

        @ Emp
        What is it about you wingnuts. Your maturity levels seem to have got stuck at 10yrs of age. I was (mainly) talking about a radio station… didn’t mention Granny Herald.

        Nah. It aint a media conspiracy. They just have a rather negative attitude towards Labour… cos it’s cool to be that way at the moment. That should be easy for a 10yr old to understand.

        • TightyRighty 1.1.1.1
          12 July 2010 at 7:54 pm

          righto, so it’s always easy to be negative to the sulky kid that hides in the bathrooms at lunchtime, eating boogers, and spreading lies about the cool kids?

          • felix 1.1.1.1.1
            12 July 2010 at 9:08 pm

            Which one are you in that scenario TR? I’m lost, sorry – I always think of you as more of a booger-eater than a cool kid.

            • TightyRighty 1.1.1.1.1.1
              13 July 2010 at 10:04 am

              struck a nerve have I felix? trying to bounce the shame you feel when someone revives old memories for you by being personal?

      • the pinkpostman 1.1.2
        13 July 2010 at 4:11 pm

        Can you back up such a ridiculous statement. In fact it is the political Right that has the history of violence and militarism .Franco. Mussolini.Hitler ,Pinochet the list is huge. Even in Aotearoa the political violence has come from the Right. You should read your history EMP. At least twice NZ has almost had a dictatorship. Just remember Muldoon . If that not enough just have a look at the way Sidney Holland acted. Even in recent years the National Party has had some very Right Wing members who would love to use a bit of might to achieve their aims.
        Just ask a few of your Nat friends their real beliefs on Capital Punishment and what they believe should be done about unions. Take a look at the way they voted

  2. TightyRighty 2
    12 July 2010 at 10:10 am

    ouch, high twenties has got to hurt.

    There always seems to be a bit of bias in the roy morgan poll in favour of the government du jour though. Maybe it’s not all as bad as the today’s cartoon in the dom suggests

  3. Fisiani 3
    12 July 2010 at 10:16 am

    This is just a blip. A honeymoon phase.
    Seriously. When National hits over 60% will you finally realise that they represent the wishes of New Zealand

    • travellerev 3.1
      12 July 2010 at 11:54 am

      But what does it tell us about the average Kiwi other then that they are ignorant, badly informed and uptight to the point of self destructive. Oh, and did I mention that our mainstream media is owned by international media moguls who really, really like predators such as John Key?

      • Emp 3.1.1
        12 July 2010 at 12:01 pm

        haha, so predictable. Yes the reason why national is popular and labour isn’t is because the voters are idiots. Who’s the stupid one really, the political activist who thinks all voters are stupid and doesn’t trust them to form an opinion, or the activist who takes time to understand and listen to what voters want?

        All you socialists resort to tyranny when democracy doesn’t give you the result you want.

        • travellerev 3.1.1.1
          12 July 2010 at 12:38 pm

          I have no allegiance to Labour and don’t give a flying fuck who is in power because as far as I am concerned they are all different faces of the same dragon.

          If you ask what most people want it doesn’t make much difference who you talk to. They want to feel safe, have reasonably decent paying job and be left alone to enjoy their lives.

          Is that happening under National? We’ll see in the next couple of years when the true destruction they always cause is going to show up and people are beginning to see the results in their own lives.

          What NActional are however more apt at then Labour and the Greens is to galvanise the fear of being threatened by scary people, or loose whatever meagre possessions you have been able to accumulate and make you run to whatever seems the safest choice. Horses do the same. Their stable is on fire so that’s what they run to because that is were they feel safe.

          And yes, I’m afraid most voters act like horses. Does this mean their stupid? Hmmm.

          • Big Bruv 3.1.1.1.1
            12 July 2010 at 12:46 pm

            “If you ask what most people want it doesn’t make much difference who you talk to. They want to feel safe, have reasonably decent paying job and be left alone to enjoy their lives.”

            Ha ha, classic!

            This from a Green, the party that wants to control our lives more than any other.

            • travellerev 3.1.1.1.1.1
              12 July 2010 at 1:14 pm

              Green? Where’d you get that one from?

            • loota 3.1.1.1.1.2
              12 July 2010 at 1:23 pm

              Obviously better to have multinationals and big business controlling our lives, right BB?

              • Big Bruv …
                12 July 2010 at 1:31 pm

                What is it with you lefties and your inability to tell the truth?

                Multinationals and big business do not control our lives, you insist on bullshitting the public into believing that it is a choice between business and government.

                I know this is not something that you will be familiar with but how about we let people control their own lives.

                • felix …
                  12 July 2010 at 1:37 pm

                  “What is it with you lefties and your inability to tell the truth?”

                  You mean tell the truth like this, where you tried to collect on a bet you made with BLiP because you thought you’d won, and then decided it wasn’t really a proper bet after all when you realised you’d lost?

                • BLiP …
                  12 July 2010 at 1:45 pm

                  They would be better able to live their lives if they honoured their word – why don’t you?

                • Draco T Bastard …
                  12 July 2010 at 1:47 pm

                  Yes they do BB but, as you live in a delusion, you just can’t (won’t) see it.

                  • Big Bruv …
                    12 July 2010 at 1:57 pm

                    Utter crap Draco.

                    There is nothing to see, you just keep pushing this bullshit in the hope that the public will believe you.

                    It is inconceivable to you lot not to have power, this is evident in the arrogant way you are acting nearly two years after the people of NZ told you to bugger off.

                    [lprent: You’re starting to descend into trolling looking at the last few comments. Very little content, lots of assertions, and some pointless abuse. Reform fast – it isn’t what the sites comments are for.

                    Sure I’m aware that you’re getting a certain amount of teasing on your bet. Live with it (and avoid taking bets on here in future). ]

                    • Draco T Bastard …
                      12 July 2010 at 8:28 pm

                      Awhile ago I considered power for the sake of power and came to the abrupt conclusion that I can’t tell people what to do. It’s why I’m so supportive of democracy.

                      NACT came to power and immediately set up councils (Auckland SuperShitty, ECAN) that would do what businesses wanted and specifically against the wishes of the people. Yeah, the evidence is there that business controls the nation courtesy of it’s bought and paid for politicians in NACT.

                • travellerev …
                  12 July 2010 at 1:48 pm

                  What is a zombie? You might want to read this Oh oops, that could be describing you there.

                  If you want to know about my politics which are way beyond the idiotic and artificially maintained and obsolete left/right paradigm, you might want to watch Michael Ruppert’s (US Military, LA Cop, and your typical American redneck until he woke up to some home truths) film Collapse Part 1, 2, 3.

                  I work together with US military hoipalloi, intelligence proffesionals, Architects, engineers, medical professionals, firefighters, pilots and many many more Texas rednecks who have no connection with the so called left/right paradigm, to try and educate people such as you and if you had any brains at all you’d take some of those lessons but since I do not detect any measurable brain activity in your asinine comments I won’t hold my breath on that one.

                  • Big Bruv …
                    12 July 2010 at 1:53 pm

                    Lol..hook, line and sinker.

                    You always have been such an easy wind up travellerev, it must have something to do with your obvious lack of intelligence.

                    But please, do go on holding your breath, hold it for as long as you can.

                    • travellerev …
                      12 July 2010 at 1:56 pm

                      Yep, no discernible brain activity. Amazing.

                      Thanks anyway for given me a reason and therefore and opportunity to give these links here. You’d be amazed BB how many people actually do want to educate themselves.

                      You are a good example of how even a brain dead moron can be of service to their wider community. Now go back to sleep and enjoy your day.

                  • Big Bruv …
                    12 July 2010 at 2:04 pm

                    Poor old travellerev

                    Just as irrelevant as ever.

                  • The Voice of Reason …
                    12 July 2010 at 2:11 pm

                    “I work together with US military hoipalloi, Texas rednecks, Gun right activists and a lot of other people who have no connection with the so called left/right paradigm”

                    Er, that’s three kinds of rightwingers, Trav. They may not understand the left/right paradigm, but it doesn’t mean they’re not part of it.

                    • travellerev …
                      12 July 2010 at 2:30 pm

                      Sweety, I suggest you check the link to the patriots link and you will find there’ enough people from all over the political spectrum.

                      I made a point of showing my allegiance not just to people from the “Left side of the paradigm since that was already apparent in BB’s comments.

                      And actually you’d be surprised how liberal and left leaning some of those US military, red necks and even Gun rights activists are but I’m sure you already realised that being of superior mind. LOL.

        • the pinkpostman 3.1.1.2
          13 July 2010 at 4:00 pm

          Where ever did you get such a ridiculous idea Emp. In fact the violence and militarism has come mainly from the political Right.Franco , Mussolini ,Pinochet the list goes on. Even in Aotearoa we have almost had a dictatorship.Remember Muldoon and his Black Power friends? Have a look at the history of Sidney Holland. Emp you should should ask your Nat friends what their real beliefs are on Capital Punishment and the Unions.
          Have a look at their voting record on the Homosexual Law reform and ask them their beliefs on Homosexuals. No EMP its not the political Left that has the History of tyranny its your lot.

      • Big Bruv 3.1.2
        12 July 2010 at 12:33 pm

        “But what does it tell us about the average Kiwi”

        It tells us that Kiwis have finally woken up, it tells us that Kiwis do not want big government and it tells us that Kiwis have had enough of socialism and welfare bludgers.

        • Tigger 3.1.2.1
          12 July 2010 at 12:39 pm

          I must have missed those questions – where did it ask respondents their thoughts on socialism and/or welfare recipients…?

        • travellerev 3.1.2.2
          12 July 2010 at 12:41 pm

          I rest my case. LOL

        • The Voice of Reason 3.1.2.3
          12 July 2010 at 12:53 pm

          Crikey, Lil’ Blub, I hope Kiwis don’t tire of betting bludgers as well. It’d be such a shame to see you tarred and feathered for your lies and backsliding.

        • Armchair Critic 3.1.2.4
          12 July 2010 at 8:52 pm

          “It tells us that Kiwis have finally woken up, it tells us that Kiwis do not want big government and it tells us that Kiwis have had enough of socialism and welfare bludgers.”
          Like hell it does. It tells us that 50-60% of NZ believe that National will deliver what they said they would deliver. Count me in the other 40%.
          BTW has anyone seen the Labour party in the last couple of weeks?

      • bobo 3.1.3
        12 July 2010 at 7:51 pm

        Yeah a bit like the average kiwis driving habits.

  4. ianmac 4
    12 July 2010 at 10:22 am

    When the going gets tough the tough……..

    • comedy 4.1
      12 July 2010 at 10:25 am

      ………… get troughing ?

    • SHG 4.2
      12 July 2010 at 2:38 pm

      When the going gets tough… the Labour Party does nothing, apparently. Key out of the country, Parliament not sitting, you think Labour would take the opportunity to DO SOMETHING.

      Hold on, credit where it’s due, I did see that Clare “just discovered the Internet” Curran posted a crucial poll on Red Alert:

      “Internet speeds: are they fast enough?”

      [ ] YES
      [ ] NO

      Sub 30…

  5. kriswgtn 5
    12 July 2010 at 10:26 am

    Depends on who and where theyre polling

    more brown turd spin

  6. loota 6
    12 July 2010 at 10:35 am

    Labour’s still not connecting with the electorate. And this with a probable 12 months before Elections. Worrying.

    • Bob Stanforth 6.1
      12 July 2010 at 11:36 am

      You wouldn’t think Labour were worried – the posts I see here seem to focus on the fact that its largely the MSM’s fault that Labour aren’t polling higher or John Key has cast a magic spell on all of NZ.

      Or maybe – just maybe – he is doing a pretty good job of it and the majority of NZ’ers think that? Heaven forbid. C’mon MSM, get your act together!! 🙂

      • Zorr 6.1.1
        12 July 2010 at 11:51 pm

        How many times does it have to be pointed out that the posters here aren’t even “Labour-affiliated” – if you want that, go to Red Alert.

  7. Anne 7
    12 July 2010 at 11:32 am

    Still too timid Loota? Take some risks Labour. Use language (and I don’t mean offensive language) that attracts the attention of the media in the first place. I’m sick of the very polite PC stuff which has become the norm for too many Labour parliamentarians. Despite his faults, Shane Jones knows how to attract attention. I hope his period in the shadows doesn’t last too long.

    • comedy 7.1
      12 July 2010 at 11:44 am

      “Shane Jones knows how to attract attention. I hope his period in the shadows doesn’t last too long.”

      He he thanks for that I needed a laugh after the early start this morning

    • loota 7.2
      12 July 2010 at 1:08 pm

      Well I see a couple of issues for Labour. One – the belief that any new Govt is going to be given more than one term by the electorate, as long as they don’t fully screw things up. In other words, the feeling that winning in 2011 just isn’t likely. Two – temptation in parts of the Labour hierarchy to try and maneuver to the right to try and capture more votes from what seems like a Right leaning electorate, instead of offering a true progressive Left alternative to NACT. (Witness Gillard’s positioning over in Oz).

      • Monty 7.2.1
        12 July 2010 at 9:20 pm

        First part right – but the second part – Labour have no idea what they stand for except they are not John Key (hell they have no one within a bulls roar of John Key)

        Labour – like the Bok of saturday Night gave up at half time. Goff’s and nLabour polling is just awful. The party has no idea how to re-invent itself and catch the imagination of Middle NZ. Even Brash did better than Phil Goff in capturing the mood of NZ.

  8. Anne 8
    12 July 2010 at 11:50 am

    Your sense of humour is certainly found wanting sometimes comedy. More appropriate to Kiwiblog than here.

    • Emp 8.1
      12 July 2010 at 12:07 pm

      Jones wasn’t performing well before the scandal broke. He was a pompous git beforehand and if anything the porngate might have humbled him, which would be a good thing. The one thing he set his mind on before the scandal was to destroy the maori party. Good one shane. Didn’t do that did he. All he managed to do was alienate the maori party from working with labour in the near future. Labour don’t get it, they still think the public were just wrong and they will smarten up, rather than thinking labour is wrong and they have to smarten up.

      • Bob Stanforth 8.1.1
        12 July 2010 at 12:23 pm

        “Labour don’t get it, they still think the public were just wrong and they will smarten up, rather than thinking labour is wrong and they have to smarten up.”

        100% correct, and nicely put. Funny watching people think everyone else is an idiot, and then the truth dawns on them…

      • Daveski 8.1.2
        12 July 2010 at 12:25 pm

        Rather than restating my past opinions, it would be simpler to agree with Emp. Perhaps the only other point I would add is the politics of perception – Goff may be capable, experienced, knowledgeable etc but in politics you have to deal with perception. Regretably, and we can blame the Yanks, but TV has changed the game particularly with Reagan – if he sounds like a President, and looks like a President, he must be a good president.

        Goff looks old school as does Labour’s shadow govt. Perception or not, Labour’s not picking up on these messages. Likewise, National has done enough to screw the relationship with the MP but Labour seems to be in a competition to outdo them. Where National failed MMP dismally, Labour used to excel.

        I don’t believe this is a particularly good National govt but they are doing enough to keep well ahead of Labour. That should be the worry for Labour.

      • prism 8.1.3
        12 July 2010 at 12:31 pm

        ‘Jones wasn’t performing well before the scandal broke. He was a pompous git’

        That makes two of you then Emp

  9. Bob Stanforth 9
    12 July 2010 at 12:29 pm

    Like two men being chased by a tiger – you dont have to be fast, just faster. 🙂

  10. Inventory2 10
    12 July 2010 at 12:32 pm

    What were all those flash cars doing at David Cunliffe’s place yesterday? No motorbikes sighted though …

  11. Maggie 11
    12 July 2010 at 1:08 pm

    The media, particularly the print media, are besotted with Key and give him an easy ride. So-called journalists like Duncan Garner and Tracy Watkins need to examine their attitudes, they are doing themselves and the country no favours.

  12. Carol 12
    12 July 2010 at 1:41 pm

    I’m not so bothered that the Labour Party is keeping a relatively low profile at the moment. I think there is a need for a whole new direction, with a realignment of the Labour Party’s consituents, and/ or of left alliances more broadly.

    Overseas (in the US and Europe), it still seems like the right is using the on-going crisis in capitalism for cutting back on social democracy and welfare. This includes powerful forces/interests that will always push the NZ Labour Party towards the right.

    Definitely, the Labour Party, and a lot of the left, needs to re-connect with the grass-roots of communities they should be representing. That may take time. And it may also possibly could be helped by some unforeseen, but major game-changer to come into play.

    In the meantime, I think it will be better in the long run, for the left to be working on re-thinking their policies and principles, in terms of social and economic justice for the majority, and for the powerless and the under-supported sections of society.

    For me just trying to come up with some (relatively superficial) strategy for getting re-elected, and prior to that for seeing some rise in the popularity polls, regardless of the cost to main principles, is just not that helpful.

    • burt 12.1
      12 July 2010 at 1:57 pm

      I agree, they need to do what their advertising says they do; represent the people rather than focus on popularity thinking that the end game is to be electet so they can do what is good for themselves staying in power.

    • loota 12.2
      12 July 2010 at 7:50 pm

      ^ +1 very thoughtful, thanks Carol

    • I dreamed a dream 12.3
      12 July 2010 at 9:04 pm

      “Definitely, the Labour Party, and a lot of the left, needs to re-connect with the grass-roots of communities they should be representing.”

      I have to disagree with that. The 29-33% that Labour polls is the Labour grassroots — they are already a reliable voter base. What Labour need to capture is the middle ground, i.e. those who are really not politically aware. People like my wife and my friends for example, whose opinions are influenced by ordinary news from the media. These people, the middle-ground swing voters, don’t even know what left vs right means.

      And people in the middle are not even remotely aware of or interested in what we discuss in political blogs like The Standard, Red Alert, Kiwiblog, Whaleoil, etc. And for these people, nothing is really broken in New Zealand, and therefore that implies the NACT government is doing O.K. These people are not going to vote for Labour unless there’s a sense in society that things are real bad. Besides tax cuts from the last budget have been viewed favourably by these people. The NACT government has generally done a good job in keeping them satisfied. The key thing for NACT is that they have not made them angry.

      For the rest of this term of government, the NACTs are going to play it safe. They may dog-whistle right-wing policies but will pull back if the electorate does not like them. Their key objective until Election 2011 is to avoid making people angry.

      And there’s nothing much that Labour can do to win over these people in the middle. The ball is in the NACT government’s court. May in their next term of government they may take some chances and really implement some policies that make people angry. But not this term.

      If Labour decide to go further left, then they may make the 29-33% support even firmer, but they will alienate the majority of Kiwis and their chances of getting back to government will be diminished further.

      I don’t see the NACT government taking too many risks until Election 2011, and so I would say Labour will likely to be in opposition again next term. It’s sad, but I am being realistic.

      • just saying 12.3.1
        12 July 2010 at 11:15 pm

        Why should this “reliable voter base” that you speak of, continue to vote Labour if the party is pitching policy at the soft national vote in preference to the 70-odd percent of NZanders who are struggling or just straight-out poor.

        Are you seriously suggesting that Labour’s continued competition with National for the right vote is working for the party?
        Good luck with that.

        And have you noticed that the world is teetering on the verge of a perfect storm of economic, environmental and climactic catatastrophe – or is facilitating you and your friends’ latest kitchen remodellings, and luxury holidays just more important than addressing these crises rationally?

        IMHO you are being a lot of things but “realistic” isn’t one of them.

        I do agree with you that Labour is unlikely to win next year, but for very different reasons.

      • Carol 12.3.2
        13 July 2010 at 7:14 am

        Getting back in touch with Labour’s “grassrooots” means getting getting back in touch with people who DIDN’T vote for them last election: ie this is not their core vote who continue to vote for Labour regardless of their ups and downs.

        Amongst the people your are talking about, TDaD, are “ordinary”, relatively powerless, working people – the ones that Labour OUGHT to be representing. You just described some of the symptoms that show Labour has disconnected from them.

        I doubt that going more left would alienate many of these voters if it was done in a way that Labour waas working for them.

      • I dreamed a dream 12.3.3
        13 July 2010 at 9:07 am

        O.K, the consensus definition of grassroots here seems to be the “working class citizens”.

        What I am saying ultimately is that in every election, the grassroots vote either for or against the incumbent government (an exception being tiredness of a long-term government). There’s nothing much that Labour can do. If you walk in the streets and talk to people, talk to your friends, talk to workmates, etc, you will find that people at this stage are not feeling any resentment or anger towards the government. The reality is that people will suffer at some stage when but not now. At this stage, the reality is that people perceive things are o.k.

        People have that attitude “don’t fix it if it ain’t broke”. Currently nothing seems broken, things are slowly moving along as if there’s nothing seriously wrong. There’s nothing the grassroots (middle working class Kiwis) feel like they can vote against the current government. All the tweaking the government has done so far only affects the core Labour/left supporters whom the NACT government are not worried about. In fact, the grassroots Kiwis, as you define them, don’t feel sorry for those on the low incomes, government servants, etc.

        This government is really a Labour-lite government this term. The NACT government has played the electorate well, by being non-threatening and by getting people to think it’s been a smooth transition from the previous government to an improved version of it.

        Sadly, it’s a waiting game for Labour. They have to wait for things to anger the grassroots to make them vote against the NACT government. The ball is in the NACT government’s court. Will the government stuff up on issues? Not likely this term. They will manage things carefully and postpone major risky decisions until next term. Until then, Labour will just have to watch and wait. There’s no point for Labour trying to be different, when National has convinced the electorate they are like Labour. Labour have to wait for a well of discontent to build up, and they they can tap into that well of discontent.

        I am still hoping for NACTs to stuff up before Election 2011 and present Labour with some openings. But that’s a forlorn hope seeing how the NACTs have so expertly managed the PR and people’s expectations.

        • Carol 12.3.3.1
          13 July 2010 at 9:24 am

          To a certain extent I agree, IDaD. But they can be doing a lot, but not necessarily high profile stuff.

          They DO also need to re-connect with those you dismiss as not relevant – these are part of Labour’s traditional “grass-roots”.

          ie
          those on the low incomes, government servants, etc.

          … as well as those who may feel like they are doing well right now, but are actually in an insecure, unstable position – the people who will be the first to suffer when the dust settles, the NACT policies come to fruition, and/or some of the other looming dangers/threats become much more obvious.

          • I dreamed a dream 12.3.3.1.1
            13 July 2010 at 9:43 am

            I am not dismissing them as irrelevant at all. Of course they are very very very relevant. It’s just that there’s not much Labour can do to re-connect.

            “those on the low incomes, government servants, etc.”

            I think these are already part of the Labour/left core support, part of the 30%, and so re-connecting is not needed because they are already connected. They will not leave Labour unless Labour lurch right-wing which is not likely.

            “the people who will be the first to suffer when the dust settles, the NACT policies come to fruition, and/or some of the other looming dangers/threats become much more obvious.”

            Yes, Labour need to reconnect with these people. These are the people who hold the key (tempted to use a pun there, but I won’t). Currently, they are not suffering yet. The shit hasn’t hit the fan yet. They are complacent. But scaring them out of their complacency won’t work. Voters are a strange breed. They are happy with the way things are until things go awry and they suffer. Then and only then they will vote AGAINST the government, to give the other lot a chance. And currently the NACT government is doing a good job in dulling the senses of these people so that they don’t see or care about the “looming dangers/threats”. When the looming dangers/threats become reality, then they will feel the need to “re-connect”. They are the ones who will decide when to re-connect with Labour. Labour can only keep the door ajar, with an open invitation.

      • Guess Work 12.3.4
        14 July 2010 at 10:06 pm

        No its actually quite just and fair because if that happens the people will have spoken.

    • loota 12.4
      12 July 2010 at 11:29 pm

      IDAD, OK this level in the polls is the Labour grass roots – but only from one point of view. From another point of view, the Labour grass roots are the working class citizens of this country and their families. Has Labour connected with them? Has Labour shown them that it will change their lives for the better? At the ~30% support level I suggest that although Labour is holding on to its core supporters it has not connecting with these other very important parts of the community. The ‘grass roots’ of the community, not the ‘grass roots’ of the Labour Party. *They have (dangerously!) drifted apart* and are no longer one and the same. For ex, for every senior manager in an organisation there are 10 waged workers. Or 20. Are all those waged workers Labour supporters? If Labour is successfully connecting with those workers and their families, why would it still be on a poll level of 30%?

      ‘just saying’ – I read a really disturbing analysis of Gillard in the Sydney Morning Herald (search “Her hair may be red…”). Essentially it says that Labor over there has learnt to take for granted its left wing supporters and doesn’t bother to listen to them any more because they are considered captive. And to win more votes Labor has, and will continue to, lurch to the right. Leaving no true progressive left party.

      • I dreamed a dream 12.4.1
        13 July 2010 at 10:02 am

        Sorry loota, my discussions above meant to include you as well. Just a mix-up with the threading 🙂

  13. Tiger Mountain 13
    12 July 2010 at 2:16 pm

    In this terrain, polls as always are great when they coincide with one’s particular views and obviously suck when it goes the otherway. However polling companies it should be remembered are donkey deep in the MSM, they are not dispassionate observers, sticking a finger in the air to discern which way the wind is blowing.They help manufacture the ‘consent’ and perceptions seen as valuable by their owners aka the capitalist class. And unlike NZ voters polling companies are not prone to engineering themselves an early xmas.

  14. Santi 14
    12 July 2010 at 2:34 pm

    When will Labour realise is time to ditch Goff and the “old guard” once and for all? The longer the decision takes, the lower they go in the polls. It can only be good for National.

    The red party is sinking fast.

  15. Nick C 15
    12 July 2010 at 8:46 pm

    To all the nutters who believe that big business controls your lives:

    When has a business ever compelled or forced you to do anything at any part of your life?

    • Armchair Critic 15.1
      12 July 2010 at 8:54 pm

      Umm, every day. Had you not noticed?

      • Nick C 15.1.1
        12 July 2010 at 11:47 pm

        No I hadnt Armchair. I noticed that I choose to buy products from them with money that I earned. Unlike the government they dont take my money and in return provide me with an assortment of goods and services which as an individual I have very little control over.

        • Armchair Critic 15.1.1.1
          13 July 2010 at 10:20 am

          Good one Nick. Next time I fill up my car with diesel I’ll think about how much control I have over the goods and services over my oligopoly supplier. Next time I use my cellphone I’ll think about the great service I’ll get if I’m persistent enough to make a complaint like Andrew did. Next time I need to claim on insurance I won’t be referred to as a number.
          You are so right, in the eyes of big business I am different. Just like everyone else.

        • Puddleglum 15.1.1.2
          13 July 2010 at 7:37 pm

          Nick C, the way it works is not to simply ‘force’ people to buy things (I can’t believe I’m having to point this out). Economics (the discipline) is often understood as the explanation for how individuals’ preferences lead to actions (means-ends rationality, etc.). There’s no explanation – in economics – for why people may have particular preferences (it’s not the point of economics).

          Therefore, what economists – and, sadly, many on the right – show little interest in is the social and psychological processes that lead to people having the preferences they end up with as adults. Marketers, PR agencies and consumer behaviour specialists, however, have considerable interest in these processes and in using such processes to develop preferences in the first place. It is not coercive control of behaviour so much as developmental control that they seek, and they have been doing so with increasing success (hence the special agencies and divisions within major marketing companies that ‘target’ the 0-2 year olds).

          In addition, structural changes which capitalists and others involved in commerce have ‘lobbied’ for (with remarkable success given that they are a small minority and so one would think politicians would not be interested in so few votes – how odd is that?) serve to channel the exercise of preferences into market activity. These structural changes set the boundaries for the exercise of action based on the socially engineered preferences.

          In combination, (many) people just find themselves making multiple decisions every day (in the market) that they quickly come to regret and through which only a diehard neo-classical economist could argue had anything to do with their ‘self interest’.

          This process (of deliberate preference formation in the population – most notably the preference to consume via the market over engaging in other possible activities) is by no means perfect. It would be fair to say, however, – and there is ample ‘on the record’ evidence of this – that the process has become incredibly refined and more and more sophisticated over the last century. Also, the process is quite deliberate, if we can believe the comments that such people themselves have made and continue to make.

          So Nick C, there’s no ‘coercion’, just an increasing ability to control preferences and the parameters in which they are exercised. It should go without saying that this deliberate social engineering has not been done with the population’s well-being in mind.

    • loota 15.2
      12 July 2010 at 11:02 pm

      Nutters? Meh. You must not be aware that big business food corps engineer the taste of their cookies to try and accomplish the perfection of “habitual more-ishness” and make individual cookie sizes just slightly too small to be satisfying so you tend to take a second one out of the pack to munch on.

      So you may think ‘control’ is probably too strong a word, fine, but they certainly do f*** with us.

      • Santi 15.2.1
        13 July 2010 at 8:32 am

        loota, are you travellerev, the Dutch Einstein, in disguise? Another conspiracy theory to explot?

        • loota 15.2.1.1
          13 July 2010 at 8:44 am

          No, no conspiracy theory, these are standard food formulation approaches in the ‘convenience’ and takeaway food industries. Let’s say a corporate has 3 finalists for seasoning options for a new flavour pack of crisps. They are all very similar variants of a ‘honey BBQ chicken’ flavouring. You focus group test each one with a bunch of paid punters; with flavour 1 you find the punters consume an average of 60g of chips before stopping, with flavour 2 – 65g, and with flavour 3 – 70g. everything else being equal the corporate would of course go with flavour 3 – in other words increasing consumption of their product by 17% compared to flavour 1. That is massive. So it makes good business sense.

        • travellerev 15.2.1.2
          13 July 2010 at 10:00 am

          Hey Santi,

          Thanks for the opportunity. For those of you who are curious about how much the corporate military complex has a say in our daily lives this book written by Nick Turse is a must read. Nothing theoretic about it.

    • the pinkpostman 15.3
      15 July 2010 at 3:46 pm

      Well they dont “Force’ as you say but they certainly have lots of influence.
      Im limited to the daily newspaers I can read , All big business owned and controlled . They own all the food outlets so I have to eat what they supply/{except for home grown ,which is limited to gardeners like me).
      Entertainment is all big business dominated so I can only watch what they allow me too.
      The banks are all ,except Kiwi, are ll big business run. So I have to abide by what they allow me to borrow ect.
      Local body councils are are nearly all dominated by big business. Certainly working people have little or no chance of winning council elections in the big cities/towns , and no chance whatsoever of winning seats in country towns, so I dont have much chance of a say in the place I live in. I could go on but the fact is that although Im not forced as you say Nick C, but the ordinary working person is completly dominated by big business and their friends on the political Right.

  16. Rob M 16
    12 July 2010 at 9:20 pm

    Trader! Trader! polling bright
    In the bullpen of the right,
    What opposing gal or guy
    Could front thy frank expediency?

    • SHG 16.1
      12 July 2010 at 11:05 pm

      As if the Rainbow faction would ever allow a Labour candidate to be referred to as a girl. Or a guy.

  17. prism 17
    12 July 2010 at 10:53 pm

    Rob M
    The sun may have eclipsed today, but your poetic light will never dim!

  18. I dreamed a dream 18
    13 July 2010 at 10:17 am

    As a Team Labour supporter, I have to admit at half-time of the game, it’s all over rover! The other team just need to maintain their composure and stick to their game plan, and they’ve got the game sewn up. Sometimes, you come across games that are “games of two halves”, and that’s what I can hope for, where Team Labour turn the game around and pile up a number of tries in the second half, scoring the winning try with a few seconds left on the clock. And that will only happen if the NACT defence disintegrates in the second-half and leave gaping holes for the Labour team to barge through — and that’s assuming they don’t knock on as they have been likely to do. Not likely though, the other team has been showing great defence and has been throwing some miraculous passes and scoring some great tries (like the Tax Cuts and Credit Card saga).

  19. Rharn 19
    15 July 2010 at 9:04 pm

    I can not help but think of the coverage that Shane Jones got from the media and how little went to to the Nats. I thought at the time that there was a hidden agenda from mainstream media. Guess the Morgan poll suggests I may have been right.

  20. Sybil 20
    19 July 2010 at 8:59 pm

    The only poll that matters is the one on election day.

    See

    http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s2957620.htm

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