The latest Roy Morgan poll is not good reading for the political left.
Support for the government is at 57.5% (up 1.5%):
National Party 53% (up 0.5%)
Maori Party 2% (unchanged)
ACT NZ 2% (up 1%)
United Future 0.5% (unchanged)
Support for opposition parties is at 42.5% (down 1.5%)
Labour Party 28% (down 3%)
Greens 10% (up 2.5%)
New Zealand First 3% (down 1.5%)
Progressive Party 0.5% (unchanged)
Others 1% (up 0.5%)
On the Right, it’s interesting that this result completely discounts the dodgy Horizon “poll” that showed a big jump for ACT after the Brash take over. ACT are still languishing well below the 5% threshold, which has to be good news. The Mana Party is not yet included in the poll, so its potential impact on the Maori Party is still hard to assess. But in both cases National may be scratching for coalition partners.
On the left, while probably within margin of error, the loss from Labour seems to have gone to the Greens. But there’s no denying the 28% is bad news for Labour! Now is the time for the gap with National to start closing, thanks, not getting wider.
However, this poll reflects data collected to 15 May, so does not include either response to the sub-zero budget, or the first hints of Labour’s policy as revealed during the weekend Conference. With plenty of cracks now in Key’s armour, and the Nats’ total lack of ideas so thoroughly exposed by the budget, I still believe that the Left can and will win the November election. But, it’s a big gap to close.
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