Written By: - Date published: 8:42 am, August 10th, 2020 - 33 comments
Critics have dismissed the Jacinda Ardern government as being one of style over substance. This is unfair given the challenges this government has faced and the policy achievements it has had. However, it is a government that has much work to do if it wins a second term. And its over-reliance on Jacinda as party leader is a huge strategic risk, especially when the governments front bench is perceived, rightly or wrongly, to be lightweight.
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments
Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?
Written By: - Date published: 9:27 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 89 comments
Labour has hit stratospheric highs in the new Reid Research poll at 60.9%, and still have a strong partner in the Greens at 5.7%. Who’s in and out on these numbers? How has Collins performed?
Written By: - Date published: 6:36 pm, June 25th, 2020 - 117 comments
The latest Colmar Brunton poll results have been released and Labour is still remarkably in a position to rule on its own.
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, May 20th, 2020 - 106 comments
The media is reporting there will be a vote of no confidence in Simon Bridges’ leadership at next week’s National caucus meeting.
Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 53 comments
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is a bloodbath for National- but who are the likely victims? Pollwatch is back, this time with a model for electorate winners and losers to add onto the party vote stats.
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 33 comments
Last night’s Reid Research Newshub poll result will be reverberating through National’s caucus. And raises the question, do they gift Epsom to ACT and maybe get a right wing MP or do they preserve every seat they can for themselves.
Written By: - Date published: 2:15 am, November 30th, 2019 - 2 comments
Originally posted Nick Kelly’s blog One feature of the UK election has been various electoral alliances or deals done. This has mostly occurred around the issue of Brexit. Early on in the campaign I wrote about Trump’s intervention in the UK election, specifically him calling on The Brexit Party and The Conservatives to do a deal. […]
Written By: - Date published: 10:39 am, October 30th, 2019 - 55 comments
The UK will learn its political fate on Friday 13 December. MPs have voted in a one-line Bill to have an election on Thursday 12 November, in the middle of winter. BoJo’s got his way if not quite the way he wanted. All bets are off.
Written By: - Date published: 7:10 am, October 14th, 2019 - 73 comments
Is less spin and more analysis too much to ask?
Written By: - Date published: 11:04 am, August 28th, 2019 - 239 comments
Boosting the signal to noise ratio.
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments
We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]
Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, April 15th, 2019 - 50 comments
The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll is out and it says that a Labour/Greens Government is what NZ wants. Oh, and we quite like Jacinda Ardern.
Written By: - Date published: 8:24 pm, February 18th, 2019 - 84 comments
Another poll, another sizzling result for Jacinda Ardern and the Coalition team. Mansplain that, Simon.
Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]
Written By: - Date published: 10:34 am, February 12th, 2019 - 130 comments
So, it turns out Simon’s a dud. What do the Tories do about it? And can Judith Collins really make a difference?
Written By: - Date published: 8:50 am, January 10th, 2019 - 67 comments
Another day, another humiliating defeat for Theresa May. Surprisingly, the news is no better for Jeremy Corbyn.
Written By: - Date published: 5:29 pm, October 24th, 2018 - 70 comments
Simon says that the economy and government are failing, not him and National. Last week made him stronger. And improved everyone’s mental health.
Also black is white and the earth is flat.
Written By: - Date published: 8:07 pm, August 5th, 2018 - 94 comments
The 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll is out. The Government sails on serenely while Simon meets the people.