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Poll Watch: Colmar Brunton Poll 2018-2-19

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments

In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.

Poll Watch: Reid Research Poll 2018-1-31

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 1st, 2018 - 158 comments

Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.

Latest Comar Brunton poll result

Written By: - Date published: 1:08 pm, December 10th, 2017 - 88 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton results just released suggests that support for the Government parties is stable and support for Jacinda Ardern is surging.

Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour and Greens surge as National flounders

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, November 23rd, 2017 - 154 comments

The first post election Roy Morgan poll result has been released. Labour and the Greens have surged and National has gone backwards.

Australia supports same sex marriage

Written By: - Date published: 12:18 pm, November 15th, 2017 - 21 comments

Australian electors have voted overwhelmingly in favour of allowing same sex marriages.

Measuring the honeymoon

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, November 14th, 2017 - 34 comments

One of the things that I like about the Horizon poll is that it is unashamedly qualitative and highlights data beyond what is required for idiot talking heads needing a soundbite. Horizon breaks down some of the demographics to look at who is giving the government their honeymoon.

The poll that matters will be completed on Saturday

Written By: - Date published: 8:16 am, September 21st, 2017 - 107 comments

Poll results! And, the most important thing we can do now is vote, and get out the vote, and remind people that only Labour and the Greens have committed to changing the government.

CB poll has Labour ahead and Greens safe

Written By: - Date published: 6:06 pm, September 14th, 2017 - 193 comments

Labour and Greens could govern alone.

The 3 News poll was a rogue.

Kia Kaha Lefties – it’s one poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, September 13th, 2017 - 93 comments

Somewhere between complacency and losing hope there’s the mahi that still needs doing.

Poll tonight

Written By: - Date published: 2:58 pm, September 12th, 2017 - 216 comments

“Dramatic and Devastating” according to Patrick Gower. Do you think he wants us to watch?

Labour takes the lead in RNZ poll of polls

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, September 8th, 2017 - 70 comments

Labour has overtaken National in the RNZ poll of polls. Last night’s TVNZ poll had National 4 points behind and falling below 40% for the first time in a decade. Labour have the momentum, and 2 weeks to go…

TVNZ Poll – Labour opens 4 point lead

Written By: - Date published: 6:02 pm, September 7th, 2017 - 76 comments

Tonight’s TVNZ Poll shows Labour opening a 4 point lead over National.

National drop below 40% (well deserved).

It’s a new political world

Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 1st, 2017 - 76 comments

Labour has polled ahead of National for the first time in 12 years. It is only one poll and others may differ, but it has shattered a huge psychological barrier. We’re in a new political world. Time to go hard.

Horizon poll shows 10% shift from Nat to Labour

Written By: - Date published: 8:39 am, August 31st, 2017 - 32 comments

Take it with a bag of salt, but it certainly isn’t bad news for Labour.

Labour closes gap to 3%

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, August 20th, 2017 - 58 comments

Labour rising, National falling in the latest poll. Greens steady at 8%. Jacinda Ardern buries Bill English in the “favourability” rating. Will Labour overtake Nats before the election?

Update: Live Labour launch video.

Green Party makes astounding poll recovery in 24 hours!

Written By: - Date published: 11:29 am, August 19th, 2017 - 68 comments

Can we please get on with the real mahi now?

That 5% threshold and recent polling

Written By: - Date published: 4:09 pm, August 18th, 2017 - 86 comments

Matthew Whitehead on MMP and the threshold, along with some commentary on the current polling situation.

Labour’s momentum – Nat’s fall

Written By: - Date published: 9:12 am, August 18th, 2017 - 87 comments

What Jacinda Ardern has accomplished here is nothing short of astonishing. As a one-off bump in the polls it rivals Brash’s infamous Orewa speech. But Ardern’s rise is based on optimism and positivity rather than racist dog whistles.

Two good polls for Labour – and a call to arms for the Greens

Written By: - Date published: 7:05 pm, August 9th, 2017 - 94 comments

Two polls out tonight show a big surge for Labour and Jacinda Ardern. But we need a strong Green vote too. To those whom Metiria inspired – please don’t give up on voting. The Greens need you now more than ever!

Newshub poll tonight

Written By: - Date published: 2:51 pm, August 9th, 2017 - 93 comments

English damaged by Barclay scandal – poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:38 am, August 8th, 2017 - 45 comments

The missing Newshub poll question has appeared at last, showing that Bill English has been damaged by his handling of the Barclay scandal. 56% of Kiwis (even 36% of Nats) have lost some trust in English. Updated: The texts have been “deleted”. English refusing to answer questions.

Hey Newshub polls – where are the results on the English-Barclay question?

Written By: - Date published: 8:54 am, August 5th, 2017 - 19 comments

I was a participant in last weekend’s Newshub poll. Along with the question on Metiria Turei’s actions I was asked a similar one whether Bill English was correct and honest in his handling of the Todd Barclay scandal. We’ve heard a lot about the answer to the first question, nothing at all on the second…

Caution: Taking polling at face value may induce political whiplash

Written By: - Date published: 10:07 am, July 31st, 2017 - 114 comments

With all the speculation about polls, it’s time to have a discussion about polling and the cold, hard facts around it. Is it good news for the left?

Metiria’s gamble pays off in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, July 31st, 2017 - 157 comments

To what must be intense annoyance from angry right-wing pundits, Metiria Turei’s gamble seems to have paid off for The Greens, an indication (though mind that margin of error) that there could be a real appetite for a Corbyn-style political revolution this election.

Election 2017: the battle lines are drawn

Written By: - Date published: 8:57 am, July 17th, 2017 - 77 comments

The 2017 election campaign has been set alight by the Greens adopting brave policies that Jeremy Corbyn would be proud of and NZ First adopting policies that would meet with Donald Trump’s approval.

Nats’ poll fall 2014 2017

Written By: - Date published: 7:26 am, July 12th, 2017 - 141 comments

Toby Manhire on The Spinoff has an interesting analysis of the recent Colmar Brunton poll. Comapred to the same poll in 2014 National are 5% down, with the Labour/Green alliance unchanged. The fall in the preferred PM rating from Key to English is huge. The Nats are highly vulnerable.

Narratives out of noise

Written By: - Date published: 7:13 am, July 11th, 2017 - 189 comments

Another poll, another round of narratives out of noise.

Roy Morgan poll (please no not Winston)

Written By: - Date published: 6:47 am, May 27th, 2017 - 61 comments

The chronically erratic Roy Morgan poll is out again, with Nat vs Lab/Green in a dead heat.

Stuff – online survey on NZ direction

Written By: - Date published: 10:28 am, May 23rd, 2017 - 10 comments

Stuff is running an online survey – Is New Zealand on the right track?

Hickey’s chart of the week

Written By: - Date published: 3:32 pm, April 28th, 2017 - 16 comments

Dog’s Breakfast.

Written By: - Date published: 12:40 pm, April 23rd, 2017 - 17 comments

If politicians are meant to represent people, then shouldn’t they explore ways to ensure that the people they represent get represented in government?

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