Written By: - Date published: 7:10 am, October 14th, 2019 - 73 comments
Is less spin and more analysis too much to ask?
Written By: - Date published: 11:25 am, July 23rd, 2019 - 57 comments
Barry Soper has reported on a UMR poll that has National at 38% and Simon Bridges unfavourable rating at over 60%.
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments
We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]
Written By: - Date published: 4:50 pm, June 9th, 2019 - 87 comments
The latest Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls are out tonight and clearly they will be trying to measure what effect the Budget has had on public opinion. What will they show?
Written By: - Date published: 8:29 pm, February 19th, 2019 - 13 comments
Do good things come in twos? This Pollwatch suggests that perhaps they do, and that maybe the news is rosier than the last one suggested.
Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]
Written By: - Date published: 9:55 am, January 12th, 2019 - 51 comments
A new poll shows solid support for legalising cannabis. Is the 2020 referendum a done deal?
Written By: - Date published: 8:50 am, January 10th, 2019 - 67 comments
Another day, another humiliating defeat for Theresa May. Surprisingly, the news is no better for Jeremy Corbyn.
Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, December 2nd, 2018 - 189 comments
The latest Colmar Brunton poll result is out suggesting a slight rebound in National’s fortunes.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments
The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?
Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments
Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments
In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.
Written By: - Date published: 1:08 pm, December 10th, 2017 - 88 comments
The latest Colmar Brunton results just released suggests that support for the Government parties is stable and support for Jacinda Ardern is surging.
Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, November 23rd, 2017 - 154 comments
The first post election Roy Morgan poll result has been released. Labour and the Greens have surged and National has gone backwards.
Written By: - Date published: 12:18 pm, November 15th, 2017 - 21 comments
Australian electors have voted overwhelmingly in favour of allowing same sex marriages.
Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, November 14th, 2017 - 34 comments
One of the things that I like about the Horizon poll is that it is unashamedly qualitative and highlights data beyond what is required for idiot talking heads needing a soundbite. Horizon breaks down some of the demographics to look at who is giving the government their honeymoon.
Written By: - Date published: 8:16 am, September 21st, 2017 - 107 comments
Poll results! And, the most important thing we can do now is vote, and get out the vote, and remind people that only Labour and the Greens have committed to changing the government.
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, September 13th, 2017 - 93 comments
Somewhere between complacency and losing hope there’s the mahi that still needs doing.
Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, September 8th, 2017 - 70 comments
Labour has overtaken National in the RNZ poll of polls. Last night’s TVNZ poll had National 4 points behind and falling below 40% for the first time in a decade. Labour have the momentum, and 2 weeks to go…