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Legalize it!

Written By: - Date published: 9:55 am, January 12th, 2019 - 51 comments

A new poll shows solid support for legalising cannabis. Is the 2020 referendum a done deal?

Brexit: Tories Lose Control of the House and the Process

Written By: - Date published: 8:50 am, January 10th, 2019 - 67 comments

Another day, another humiliating defeat for Theresa May. Surprisingly,  the news is no better for Jeremy Corbyn.

Latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, December 2nd, 2018 - 189 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton poll result is out suggesting a slight rebound in National’s fortunes.

Bridges loses connection with reality

Written By: - Date published: 5:29 pm, October 24th, 2018 - 70 comments

Simon says that the economy and government are failing, not him and National.  Last week made him stronger.  And improved everyone’s mental health.

Also black is white and the earth is flat.

Pollwatch: 5th August, 2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments

The most likely result from Colmar Brunton's 5th august poll as a pie chart: 7 Greens, 51 Labour, 6 NZF, 1 ACT, and 55 National MPs.

The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?

Colmar Brunton poll; Simon Who?

Written By: - Date published: 8:07 pm, August 5th, 2018 - 94 comments

The 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll is out. The Government sails on serenely while Simon meets the people.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 28/5/2018

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments

A chart of the expected outcome from this poll. Greens: 6, Labour: 55, National: 58, ACT: 1.

Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.

Pollwatch: Reid Research, 27/05/2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 27th, 2018 - 88 comments

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out, and it continues to be less than stellar news for the opposition, but also for New Zealand First.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, 16/4/18

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments

An arc chart of seats in the latest Colmar Brunton poll: Greens 7, Labour 53, New Zealand First 6, National 54, ACT 1.

In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.

Is youth the new political divide?

Written By: - Date published: 9:21 am, March 11th, 2018 - 44 comments

There is evidence in the United Kingdom and in New Zealand that youth and not class may be the new political divide.

Poll Watch: Colmar Brunton Poll 2018-2-19

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments

In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.

Poll Watch: Reid Research Poll 2018-1-31

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 1st, 2018 - 158 comments

Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.

Latest Comar Brunton poll result

Written By: - Date published: 1:08 pm, December 10th, 2017 - 88 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton results just released suggests that support for the Government parties is stable and support for Jacinda Ardern is surging.

Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour and Greens surge as National flounders

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, November 23rd, 2017 - 154 comments

The first post election Roy Morgan poll result has been released. Labour and the Greens have surged and National has gone backwards.

Australia supports same sex marriage

Written By: - Date published: 12:18 pm, November 15th, 2017 - 21 comments

Australian electors have voted overwhelmingly in favour of allowing same sex marriages.

Measuring the honeymoon

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, November 14th, 2017 - 34 comments

One of the things that I like about the Horizon poll is that it is unashamedly qualitative and highlights data beyond what is required for idiot talking heads needing a soundbite. Horizon breaks down some of the demographics to look at who is giving the government their honeymoon.

The poll that matters will be completed on Saturday

Written By: - Date published: 8:16 am, September 21st, 2017 - 107 comments

Poll results! And, the most important thing we can do now is vote, and get out the vote, and remind people that only Labour and the Greens have committed to changing the government.

CB poll has Labour ahead and Greens safe

Written By: - Date published: 6:06 pm, September 14th, 2017 - 193 comments

Labour and Greens could govern alone.

The 3 News poll was a rogue.

Kia Kaha Lefties – it’s one poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, September 13th, 2017 - 93 comments

Somewhere between complacency and losing hope there’s the mahi that still needs doing.

Poll tonight

Written By: - Date published: 2:58 pm, September 12th, 2017 - 216 comments

“Dramatic and Devastating” according to Patrick Gower. Do you think he wants us to watch?

Labour takes the lead in RNZ poll of polls

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, September 8th, 2017 - 70 comments

Labour has overtaken National in the RNZ poll of polls. Last night’s TVNZ poll had National 4 points behind and falling below 40% for the first time in a decade. Labour have the momentum, and 2 weeks to go…

TVNZ Poll – Labour opens 4 point lead

Written By: - Date published: 6:02 pm, September 7th, 2017 - 76 comments

Tonight’s TVNZ Poll shows Labour opening a 4 point lead over National.

National drop below 40% (well deserved).

It’s a new political world

Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 1st, 2017 - 76 comments

Labour has polled ahead of National for the first time in 12 years. It is only one poll and others may differ, but it has shattered a huge psychological barrier. We’re in a new political world. Time to go hard.

Horizon poll shows 10% shift from Nat to Labour

Written By: - Date published: 8:39 am, August 31st, 2017 - 32 comments

Take it with a bag of salt, but it certainly isn’t bad news for Labour.

Labour closes gap to 3%

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, August 20th, 2017 - 58 comments

Labour rising, National falling in the latest poll. Greens steady at 8%. Jacinda Ardern buries Bill English in the “favourability” rating. Will Labour overtake Nats before the election?

Update: Live Labour launch video.

Green Party makes astounding poll recovery in 24 hours!

Written By: - Date published: 11:29 am, August 19th, 2017 - 68 comments

Can we please get on with the real mahi now?

That 5% threshold and recent polling

Written By: - Date published: 4:09 pm, August 18th, 2017 - 86 comments

Matthew Whitehead on MMP and the threshold, along with some commentary on the current polling situation.

Labour’s momentum – Nat’s fall

Written By: - Date published: 9:12 am, August 18th, 2017 - 87 comments

What Jacinda Ardern has accomplished here is nothing short of astonishing. As a one-off bump in the polls it rivals Brash’s infamous Orewa speech. But Ardern’s rise is based on optimism and positivity rather than racist dog whistles.

Two good polls for Labour – and a call to arms for the Greens

Written By: - Date published: 7:05 pm, August 9th, 2017 - 94 comments

Two polls out tonight show a big surge for Labour and Jacinda Ardern. But we need a strong Green vote too. To those whom Metiria inspired – please don’t give up on voting. The Greens need you now more than ever!

Newshub poll tonight

Written By: - Date published: 2:51 pm, August 9th, 2017 - 93 comments

English damaged by Barclay scandal – poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:38 am, August 8th, 2017 - 45 comments

The missing Newshub poll question has appeared at last, showing that Bill English has been damaged by his handling of the Barclay scandal. 56% of Kiwis (even 36% of Nats) have lost some trust in English. Updated: The texts have been “deleted”. English refusing to answer questions.

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