Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, May 20th, 2020 - 106 comments
The media is reporting there will be a vote of no confidence in Simon Bridges’ leadership at next week’s National caucus meeting.
Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 53 comments
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is a bloodbath for National- but who are the likely victims? Pollwatch is back, this time with a model for electorate winners and losers to add onto the party vote stats.
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 33 comments
Last night’s Reid Research Newshub poll result will be reverberating through National’s caucus. And raises the question, do they gift Epsom to ACT and maybe get a right wing MP or do they preserve every seat they can for themselves.
Written By: - Date published: 2:15 am, November 30th, 2019 - 2 comments
Originally posted Nick Kelly’s blog One feature of the UK election has been various electoral alliances or deals done. This has mostly occurred around the issue of Brexit. Early on in the campaign I wrote about Trump’s intervention in the UK election, specifically him calling on The Brexit Party and The Conservatives to do a deal. […]
Written By: - Date published: 10:39 am, October 30th, 2019 - 55 comments
The UK will learn its political fate on Friday 13 December. MPs have voted in a one-line Bill to have an election on Thursday 12 November, in the middle of winter. BoJo’s got his way if not quite the way he wanted. All bets are off.
Written By: - Date published: 7:10 am, October 14th, 2019 - 73 comments
Is less spin and more analysis too much to ask?
Written By: - Date published: 11:04 am, August 28th, 2019 - 239 comments
Boosting the signal to noise ratio.
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments
We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]
Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, April 15th, 2019 - 50 comments
The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll is out and it says that a Labour/Greens Government is what NZ wants. Oh, and we quite like Jacinda Ardern.
Written By: - Date published: 8:24 pm, February 18th, 2019 - 84 comments
Another poll, another sizzling result for Jacinda Ardern and the Coalition team. Mansplain that, Simon.
Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]
Written By: - Date published: 10:34 am, February 12th, 2019 - 130 comments
So, it turns out Simon’s a dud. What do the Tories do about it? And can Judith Collins really make a difference?
Written By: - Date published: 8:50 am, January 10th, 2019 - 67 comments
Another day, another humiliating defeat for Theresa May. Surprisingly, the news is no better for Jeremy Corbyn.
Written By: - Date published: 5:29 pm, October 24th, 2018 - 70 comments
Simon says that the economy and government are failing, not him and National. Last week made him stronger. And improved everyone’s mental health.
Also black is white and the earth is flat.
Written By: - Date published: 8:07 pm, August 5th, 2018 - 94 comments
The 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll is out. The Government sails on serenely while Simon meets the people.
Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 27th, 2018 - 88 comments
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out, and it continues to be less than stellar news for the opposition, but also for New Zealand First.
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments
In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.
Written By: - Date published: 9:21 am, March 11th, 2018 - 44 comments
There is evidence in the United Kingdom and in New Zealand that youth and not class may be the new political divide.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.
Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 1st, 2018 - 158 comments
Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.
Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, November 23rd, 2017 - 154 comments
The first post election Roy Morgan poll result has been released. Labour and the Greens have surged and National has gone backwards.