Written By: - Date published: 1:56 pm, September 12th, 2023 - 31 comments
The silver lining to last night’s Reid Research poll is that Act’s support is slumping and if there is a change in Government it may not be as extreme as it could have been.
Written By: - Date published: 12:34 pm, August 31st, 2023 - 44 comments
Now is not the time to give up, now is the time to work harder at winning.
Written By: - Date published: 8:08 pm, May 14th, 2023 - 70 comments
The latest TV3 Newshub poll results are out. The major parties are neck and neck. No surprise there. But what is stark is the public response to Christopher Luxon. Basically he is tanking.
Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, February 22nd, 2023 - 37 comments
Here’s my prediction: Labour will not just win the October election, but it will complete a landslide of similar proportions to the 2020 election. It has been Labour’s response to the cyclones that will be the decisive factor in October. Luxon’s low energy performance helps.
Written By: - Date published: 6:24 pm, January 30th, 2023 - 78 comments
This evening two new political polls have been released both putting Labour ahead of National.
Written By: - Date published: 7:13 am, January 24th, 2023 - 52 comments
It is too soon to say what Jacinda’s legacy will be. She will certainly be remembered for becoming a mother whilst being a world leader. For her presence on the world stage as a voice for feminism and progressive politics. She ushered in a generational and attitudinal change in New Zealand politics. While internationally she offered an alternative to the politics of Trump, Bolsonaro, Scott Morrison, and Viktor Orban.
Written By: - Date published: 7:28 am, December 20th, 2022 - 96 comments
I thought David Seymour was the most interesting speaker at the Victoria University post-election conference at Parliament last year. Two things stood out for me in his presentation following ACT’s election gains. He opened by offering lengthy and effusive praise to his researcher, then clearly stated his objective to supplant National as the leading party on the right. He’s on track for that, as current media attention shows.
Written By: - Date published: 5:34 pm, August 21st, 2022 - 64 comments
But the past week has been a week of sideshows. One international as elements of the right try to smear Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin for dancing. And one local where rogue Labour MP Gaurav Sharma is running out of excuses for not backing up the extraordinary claims he has made about the Labour Party.
Written By: - Date published: 8:58 am, June 21st, 2022 - 104 comments
An Auckland Ratepayers Alliance Curia poll that was trumpeted as claiming that Efeso Collins and Leo Molloy were neck and neck in terms of public support has attracted criticism after it was disclosed that the poll of 500 persons had 53% stating that they did not know who they would vote for.
Written By: - Date published: 8:11 pm, May 3rd, 2022 - 109 comments
The latest Reid Research poll result has been released. Basically it reflects other polls that have been recently conducted. But the Herald have chosen to suggest it shows a dramatic change.
Written By: - Date published: 7:54 pm, March 10th, 2022 - 124 comments
National/Act (47%) would beat Labour/Greens (46%) if there were an election held tomorrow, according to the latest One News Kantar poll.
Written By: - Date published: 10:08 pm, February 7th, 2022 - 93 comments
I am going to channel my Matthew Hooton left wing alter ego in the writing of this post. The latest Newshub poll shows a resounding level of support for the Labour Party and there are murmurs of discontent about Chris Luxon after support for the right plummets.
Written By: - Date published: 12:01 pm, January 28th, 2022 - 16 comments
Because I love accurate comparisons and because the media typically do a shit job of looking at political polls, I decided that a look backwards to a comparable poll in the last parliament, Colmar Brunton early Feb 2019. National has lost support to Act but the overall conservative vote has minimal change. The Greens haven’t died. Labour looks very likely to lead the parliament.
Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, January 28th, 2022 - 52 comments
The latest Colmar Brunton (now Kantar) poll has now been released and some of the commentary and analysis is pretty ordinary.
Written By: - Date published: 8:13 am, November 12th, 2021 - 148 comments
The results of two polls were leaked recently both showing a drop in support for Labour. Clearly the Delta outbreak has rattled confidence. But National has not surged up in support and the Greens have picked up some of the former Labour vote.
Written By: - Date published: 10:49 am, October 7th, 2021 - 30 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll was run between August 30th and September 26th. The headline results of Labour/Greens with 55% (increase by 3.5%) against opposition National/Act/Maori parties on 41% (up 0.5%) were good enough. But they also showed the gender split.. Women are deserting the right.
Written By: - Date published: 7:55 am, September 28th, 2021 - 152 comments
The latest Colmar Brunton poll confirms that National’s polling is in the doldrums and David Seymour’s preferred PM rating is twice that of Judith Collins.
Written By: - Date published: 8:21 am, August 17th, 2021 - 52 comments
The Politik website’s inadvertant publishing of fake news of a drop in Labour’s support shows how fragile the system of relying on two sources for a story is.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 2nd, 2021 - 134 comments
Last night’s Reid Research poll result suggests that the electorate is reverting back to a more conventional dynamic after the stratospheric heights that Labour enjoyed immediately post Covid elimination.
Written By: - Date published: 7:35 am, May 28th, 2021 - 44 comments
In the latest Colmar Brunton poll although National’s result and Judith Collins’ result as preferred Prime Minister went up slightly her approval rating for her job performance has plunged deep into negative figures.
Written By: - Date published: 8:04 pm, May 16th, 2021 - 55 comments
The latest TV 3 Reid Research Poll has Judith Collins’ preferred leadership rating cut by two thirds. Judith’s racist dog whistling is clearly not working.
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, March 16th, 2021 - 45 comments
Media claims that Ardern’s support have peaked and are tanking are way too premature.
Written By: - Date published: 6:04 pm, September 22nd, 2020 - 90 comments
Judith will not enjoy this poll result.
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 am, August 10th, 2020 - 33 comments
Critics have dismissed the Jacinda Ardern government as being one of style over substance. This is unfair given the challenges this government has faced and the policy achievements it has had. However, it is a government that has much work to do if it wins a second term. And its over-reliance on Jacinda as party leader is a huge strategic risk, especially when the governments front bench is perceived, rightly or wrongly, to be lightweight.