Written By: - Date published: 8:11 pm, May 3rd, 2022 - 109 comments
The latest Reid Research poll result has been released. Basically it reflects other polls that have been recently conducted. But the Herald have chosen to suggest it shows a dramatic change.
Written By: - Date published: 10:56 am, February 13th, 2022 - 34 comments
Where will the votes come from to get Labour a third term?
Written By: - Date published: 10:08 pm, February 7th, 2022 - 93 comments
I am going to channel my Matthew Hooton left wing alter ego in the writing of this post. The latest Newshub poll shows a resounding level of support for the Labour Party and there are murmurs of discontent about Chris Luxon after support for the right plummets.
Written By: - Date published: 12:01 pm, January 28th, 2022 - 16 comments
Because I love accurate comparisons and because the media typically do a shit job of looking at political polls, I decided that a look backwards to a comparable poll in the last parliament, Colmar Brunton early Feb 2019. National has lost support to Act but the overall conservative vote has minimal change. The Greens haven’t died. Labour looks very likely to lead the parliament.
Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, December 14th, 2021 - 89 comments
Long overdue, the recent Green upward trend continues.
Written By: - Date published: 8:13 am, November 12th, 2021 - 148 comments
The results of two polls were leaked recently both showing a drop in support for Labour. Clearly the Delta outbreak has rattled confidence. But National has not surged up in support and the Greens have picked up some of the former Labour vote.
Written By: - Date published: 10:49 am, October 7th, 2021 - 30 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll was run between August 30th and September 26th. The headline results of Labour/Greens with 55% (increase by 3.5%) against opposition National/Act/Maori parties on 41% (up 0.5%) were good enough. But they also showed the gender split.. Women are deserting the right.
Written By: - Date published: 8:17 pm, September 15th, 2021 - 106 comments
Events this afternoon have confirmed that Judith Collins is indeed toast.
Written By: - Date published: 2:28 pm, August 25th, 2021 - 35 comments
I thought David Seymour was the most interesting speaker at the Victoria University post-election conference at Parliament last year. Two things stood out for me in his presentation following ACT’s election gains. He opened by offering lengthy and effusive praise to his researcher, then clearly stated his objective to supplant National as the leading party on the right. He’s on track for that, as current media attention shows.
Written By: - Date published: 8:21 am, August 17th, 2021 - 52 comments
The Politik website’s inadvertant publishing of fake news of a drop in Labour’s support shows how fragile the system of relying on two sources for a story is.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 2nd, 2021 - 134 comments
Last night’s Reid Research poll result suggests that the electorate is reverting back to a more conventional dynamic after the stratospheric heights that Labour enjoyed immediately post Covid elimination.
Written By: - Date published: 7:35 am, May 28th, 2021 - 44 comments
In the latest Colmar Brunton poll although National’s result and Judith Collins’ result as preferred Prime Minister went up slightly her approval rating for her job performance has plunged deep into negative figures.
Written By: - Date published: 8:04 pm, May 16th, 2021 - 55 comments
The latest TV 3 Reid Research Poll has Judith Collins’ preferred leadership rating cut by two thirds. Judith’s racist dog whistling is clearly not working.
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, March 16th, 2021 - 45 comments
Media claims that Ardern’s support have peaked and are tanking are way too premature.
Written By: - Date published: 6:04 pm, September 22nd, 2020 - 90 comments
Judith will not enjoy this poll result.
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 am, August 10th, 2020 - 33 comments
Critics have dismissed the Jacinda Ardern government as being one of style over substance. This is unfair given the challenges this government has faced and the policy achievements it has had. However, it is a government that has much work to do if it wins a second term. And its over-reliance on Jacinda as party leader is a huge strategic risk, especially when the governments front bench is perceived, rightly or wrongly, to be lightweight.
Written By: - Date published: 6:01 pm, August 2nd, 2020 - 34 comments
A review of National’s week which is as bad as any week I can remember.
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments
Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?
Written By: - Date published: 9:27 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 89 comments
Labour has hit stratospheric highs in the new Reid Research poll at 60.9%, and still have a strong partner in the Greens at 5.7%. Who’s in and out on these numbers? How has Collins performed?
Written By: - Date published: 6:36 pm, June 25th, 2020 - 117 comments
The latest Colmar Brunton poll results have been released and Labour is still remarkably in a position to rule on its own.
Written By: - Date published: 3:46 pm, June 6th, 2020 - 34 comments
National has embarked on a moral crusade to not lose the Election.
Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 53 comments
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is a bloodbath for National- but who are the likely victims? Pollwatch is back, this time with a model for electorate winners and losers to add onto the party vote stats.
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 33 comments
Last night’s Reid Research Newshub poll result will be reverberating through National’s caucus. And raises the question, do they gift Epsom to ACT and maybe get a right wing MP or do they preserve every seat they can for themselves.
Written By: - Date published: 6:30 pm, May 18th, 2020 - 158 comments
The May 2020 Newshub/Reid Research poll is astonishing. You’ve have, quite literally, never seen anything like it.
Written By: - Date published: 2:15 am, November 30th, 2019 - 2 comments
Originally posted Nick Kelly’s blog One feature of the UK election has been various electoral alliances or deals done. This has mostly occurred around the issue of Brexit. Early on in the campaign I wrote about Trump’s intervention in the UK election, specifically him calling on The Brexit Party and The Conservatives to do a deal. […]