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What now for Judith?

Written By: - Date published: 7:28 am, December 8th, 2020 - 51 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton poll results have been released just in time to get the summer BBQs firing.  And the results would not have pleased Judith Collins.

Colmar Brunton poll: Labour still way ahead

Written By: - Date published: 6:04 pm, September 22nd, 2020 - 90 comments

Judith will not enjoy this poll result.

Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Government: Style over substance or a guiding light for progressive politics?

Written By: - Date published: 8:42 am, August 10th, 2020 - 33 comments

Critics have dismissed the Jacinda Ardern government as being one of style over substance. This is unfair given the challenges this government has faced and the policy achievements it has had. However, it is a government that has much work to do if it wins a second term. And its over-reliance on Jacinda as party leader is a huge strategic risk, especially when the governments front bench is perceived, rightly or wrongly, to be lightweight.

National’s week from hell

Written By: - Date published: 6:01 pm, August 2nd, 2020 - 34 comments

A review of National’s week which is as bad as any week I can remember.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton poll released 2020-07-30

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments

Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?

Pollwatch: Reid Research poll completed 2020-07-24

Written By: - Date published: 9:27 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 89 comments

Labour has hit stratospheric highs in the new Reid Research poll at 60.9%, and still have a strong partner in the Greens at 5.7%. Who’s in and out on these numbers? How has Collins performed?

Colmar Brunton poll – Labour can still form majority Government

Written By: - Date published: 6:36 pm, June 25th, 2020 - 117 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton poll results have been released and Labour is still remarkably in a position to rule on its own.

National Has Found a Moral Compass

Written By: - Date published: 3:46 pm, June 6th, 2020 - 34 comments

National has embarked on a moral crusade to not lose the Election.

Dead man walking

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, May 20th, 2020 - 106 comments

The media is reporting there will be a vote of no confidence in Simon Bridges’ leadership at next week’s National caucus meeting.

Pollwatch for Newshub/Reid Research poll, 18th May 2020

Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 53 comments

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is a bloodbath for National- but who are the likely victims? Pollwatch is back, this time with a model for electorate winners and losers to add onto the party vote stats.

What does National do in Epsom?

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 33 comments

Last night’s Reid Research Newshub poll result will be reverberating through National’s caucus.  And raises the question, do they gift Epsom to ACT and maybe get a right wing MP or do they preserve every seat they can for themselves.

Newshub Poll Shock!

Written By: - Date published: 6:30 pm, May 18th, 2020 - 158 comments

The May 2020 Newshub/Reid Research poll is astonishing. You’ve have, quite literally, never seen anything like it.

The folly of electoral pacts

Written By: - Date published: 2:15 am, November 30th, 2019 - 2 comments

Originally posted  Nick Kelly’s blog One feature of the UK election has been various electoral alliances or deals done. This has mostly occurred around the issue of Brexit. Early on in the campaign I wrote about Trump’s intervention in the UK election, specifically him calling on The Brexit Party and The Conservatives to do a deal. […]

November Stuff Poll; Nats Knackered

Written By: - Date published: 9:16 am, November 25th, 2019 - 95 comments

Stuff have released their latest YouGov political poll. It’s a shocker for the Tories and their current leader Simon Bridges.

 

Snap election Britain

Written By: - Date published: 10:39 am, October 30th, 2019 - 55 comments

The UK will learn its political fate on Friday 13 December. MPs have voted in a one-line Bill to have an election on Thursday 12 November, in the middle of winter.  BoJo’s got his way if not quite the way he wanted. All bets are off.

 

Newshub: poll shows Labour/Green could govern alone

Written By: - Date published: 7:10 am, October 14th, 2019 - 73 comments

Is less spin and more analysis too much to ask?

Why is Jacinda Ardern so popular?

Written By: - Date published: 11:04 am, August 28th, 2019 - 239 comments

Boosting the signal to noise ratio.

More polling problems for Bridges

Written By: - Date published: 11:25 am, July 23rd, 2019 - 57 comments

Barry Soper has reported on a UMR poll that has National at 38% and Simon Bridges unfavourable rating at over 60%.

Pollwatch: 9th June 2019

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments

We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]

Two polls out tonight

Written By: - Date published: 4:50 pm, June 9th, 2019 - 87 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls are out tonight and clearly they will be trying to measure what effect the Budget has had on public opinion. What will they show?

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll April 2019

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, April 15th, 2019 - 50 comments

The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll is out and it says that a Labour/Greens Government is what NZ wants. Oh, and we quite like Jacinda Ardern.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 18/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 8:29 pm, February 19th, 2019 - 13 comments

Do good things come in twos? This Pollwatch suggests that perhaps they do, and that maybe the news is rosier than the last one suggested.

Colmar Brunton Feb 2019

Written By: - Date published: 8:24 pm, February 18th, 2019 - 84 comments

Another poll, another sizzling result for Jacinda Ardern and the Coalition team. Mansplain that, Simon.

Pollwatch: 11/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments

Roy morgan 11/02/2019: 63.2% chance outright labour govt, 36.8% chance labour-green coalition

Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]

Should We Fear Judith Collins?

Written By: - Date published: 10:34 am, February 12th, 2019 - 130 comments

So, it turns out Simon’s a dud. What do the Tories do about it? And can Judith Collins really make a difference?

Legalize it!

Written By: - Date published: 9:55 am, January 12th, 2019 - 51 comments

A new poll shows solid support for legalising cannabis. Is the 2020 referendum a done deal?

Brexit: Tories Lose Control of the House and the Process

Written By: - Date published: 8:50 am, January 10th, 2019 - 67 comments

Another day, another humiliating defeat for Theresa May. Surprisingly,  the news is no better for Jeremy Corbyn.

Latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, December 2nd, 2018 - 189 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton poll result is out suggesting a slight rebound in National’s fortunes.

Bridges loses connection with reality

Written By: - Date published: 5:29 pm, October 24th, 2018 - 70 comments

Simon says that the economy and government are failing, not him and National.  Last week made him stronger.  And improved everyone’s mental health.

Also black is white and the earth is flat.

Pollwatch: 5th August, 2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments

The most likely result from Colmar Brunton's 5th august poll as a pie chart: 7 Greens, 51 Labour, 6 NZF, 1 ACT, and 55 National MPs.

The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?

Colmar Brunton poll; Simon Who?

Written By: - Date published: 8:07 pm, August 5th, 2018 - 94 comments

The 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll is out. The Government sails on serenely while Simon meets the people.

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