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The folly of electoral pacts

Written By: - Date published: 2:15 am, November 30th, 2019 - 2 comments

Originally posted  Nick Kelly’s blog One feature of the UK election has been various electoral alliances or deals done. This has mostly occurred around the issue of Brexit. Early on in the campaign I wrote about Trump’s intervention in the UK election, specifically him calling on The Brexit Party and The Conservatives to do a deal. […]

November Stuff Poll; Nats Knackered

Written By: - Date published: 9:16 am, November 25th, 2019 - 95 comments

Stuff have released their latest YouGov political poll. It’s a shocker for the Tories and their current leader Simon Bridges.

 

Snap election Britain

Written By: - Date published: 10:39 am, October 30th, 2019 - 55 comments

The UK will learn its political fate on Friday 13 December. MPs have voted in a one-line Bill to have an election on Thursday 12 November, in the middle of winter.  BoJo’s got his way if not quite the way he wanted. All bets are off.

 

Newshub: poll shows Labour/Green could govern alone

Written By: - Date published: 7:10 am, October 14th, 2019 - 73 comments

Is less spin and more analysis too much to ask?

Why is Jacinda Ardern so popular?

Written By: - Date published: 11:04 am, August 28th, 2019 - 239 comments

Boosting the signal to noise ratio.

More polling problems for Bridges

Written By: - Date published: 11:25 am, July 23rd, 2019 - 57 comments

Barry Soper has reported on a UMR poll that has National at 38% and Simon Bridges unfavourable rating at over 60%.

Pollwatch: 9th June 2019

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments

We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]

Two polls out tonight

Written By: - Date published: 4:50 pm, June 9th, 2019 - 87 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls are out tonight and clearly they will be trying to measure what effect the Budget has had on public opinion. What will they show?

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll April 2019

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, April 15th, 2019 - 50 comments

The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll is out and it says that a Labour/Greens Government is what NZ wants. Oh, and we quite like Jacinda Ardern.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 18/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 8:29 pm, February 19th, 2019 - 13 comments

Do good things come in twos? This Pollwatch suggests that perhaps they do, and that maybe the news is rosier than the last one suggested.

Colmar Brunton Feb 2019

Written By: - Date published: 8:24 pm, February 18th, 2019 - 84 comments

Another poll, another sizzling result for Jacinda Ardern and the Coalition team. Mansplain that, Simon.

Pollwatch: 11/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments

Roy morgan 11/02/2019: 63.2% chance outright labour govt, 36.8% chance labour-green coalition

Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]

Should We Fear Judith Collins?

Written By: - Date published: 10:34 am, February 12th, 2019 - 130 comments

So, it turns out Simon’s a dud. What do the Tories do about it? And can Judith Collins really make a difference?

Legalize it!

Written By: - Date published: 9:55 am, January 12th, 2019 - 51 comments

A new poll shows solid support for legalising cannabis. Is the 2020 referendum a done deal?

Brexit: Tories Lose Control of the House and the Process

Written By: - Date published: 8:50 am, January 10th, 2019 - 67 comments

Another day, another humiliating defeat for Theresa May. Surprisingly,  the news is no better for Jeremy Corbyn.

Latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, December 2nd, 2018 - 189 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton poll result is out suggesting a slight rebound in National’s fortunes.

Bridges loses connection with reality

Written By: - Date published: 5:29 pm, October 24th, 2018 - 70 comments

Simon says that the economy and government are failing, not him and National.  Last week made him stronger.  And improved everyone’s mental health.

Also black is white and the earth is flat.

Pollwatch: 5th August, 2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments

The most likely result from Colmar Brunton's 5th august poll as a pie chart: 7 Greens, 51 Labour, 6 NZF, 1 ACT, and 55 National MPs.

The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?

Colmar Brunton poll; Simon Who?

Written By: - Date published: 8:07 pm, August 5th, 2018 - 94 comments

The 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll is out. The Government sails on serenely while Simon meets the people.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 28/5/2018

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments

A chart of the expected outcome from this poll. Greens: 6, Labour: 55, National: 58, ACT: 1.

Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.

Pollwatch: Reid Research, 27/05/2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 27th, 2018 - 88 comments

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out, and it continues to be less than stellar news for the opposition, but also for New Zealand First.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, 16/4/18

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments

An arc chart of seats in the latest Colmar Brunton poll: Greens 7, Labour 53, New Zealand First 6, National 54, ACT 1.

In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.

Is youth the new political divide?

Written By: - Date published: 9:21 am, March 11th, 2018 - 44 comments

There is evidence in the United Kingdom and in New Zealand that youth and not class may be the new political divide.

Poll Watch: Colmar Brunton Poll 2018-2-19

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments

In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.

Poll Watch: Reid Research Poll 2018-1-31

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 1st, 2018 - 158 comments

Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.

Latest Comar Brunton poll result

Written By: - Date published: 1:08 pm, December 10th, 2017 - 88 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton results just released suggests that support for the Government parties is stable and support for Jacinda Ardern is surging.

Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour and Greens surge as National flounders

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, November 23rd, 2017 - 154 comments

The first post election Roy Morgan poll result has been released. Labour and the Greens have surged and National has gone backwards.

Australia supports same sex marriage

Written By: - Date published: 12:18 pm, November 15th, 2017 - 21 comments

Australian electors have voted overwhelmingly in favour of allowing same sex marriages.

Measuring the honeymoon

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, November 14th, 2017 - 34 comments

One of the things that I like about the Horizon poll is that it is unashamedly qualitative and highlights data beyond what is required for idiot talking heads needing a soundbite. Horizon breaks down some of the demographics to look at who is giving the government their honeymoon.

The poll that matters will be completed on Saturday

Written By: - Date published: 8:16 am, September 21st, 2017 - 107 comments

Poll results! And, the most important thing we can do now is vote, and get out the vote, and remind people that only Labour and the Greens have committed to changing the government.

CB poll has Labour ahead and Greens safe

Written By: - Date published: 6:06 pm, September 14th, 2017 - 193 comments

Labour and Greens could govern alone.

The 3 News poll was a rogue.

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