English is down 6% in the latest Colmar Brunton (31% to 25%). Interesting context for this Sunday piece on Noted by Jane Clifton:
Bill English’s drop in the polls is making National MPs uneasy
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As new PM, English is grinding away – to diminishing returns. Labour and National poll soundings show National’s percentage heading south towards the low 40s. Labour isn’t yet benefiting handsomely from this, but if “time for change” momentum accelerates, voters will, however reluctantly, perceive that giving Labour a legitimising vote share is the surest way to achieve that change.Although tentative, the poll shift signals that what was once a victory sleepwalk for National has tipped into “game-on” territory. English’s assiduously steady-as-she-goes Cabinet, which hasn’t undone any key Keyisms (even the Super proposal is heavily provisional), will be asking what’s gone wrong.
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National’s further handicap is lack of experience of sinking popularity. Only a handful of Nats have known times of low voter approval, the past decade safely immersed in the warm bath of Key’s popularity and dexterity. If that bathwater keeps cooling, there are enough talented backbenchers who can see their chances of reaching Cabinet disappearing forever to cause English big trouble.
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And if the caucus does grow querulous, it’ll get personal. The Government’s electoral vulnerabilities – housing, water and the stalled debacle of resource management reform – are all the domain of English’s extremely close friend Nick Smith, aka Pamplona in a china shop. … Admirable though it is, sacrificing one’s country for one’s friend rather than the other way round is not how politics is generally played.A dead giveaway of National’s unease was the Nikki Kaye/Maggie Barry attack on Labour’s new deputy, Jacinda Ardern…
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For the Nats, having so long taken a fourth term as read, the possibility that their own leader may soon be less secure in his job than Labour’s will be a toughie. Points to the first Opposition MP to suggest to the PM that the vacancy for Key’s caddie hasn’t yet been filled.
Given that the Maori Party is reaching out to Labour, maybe Nat MPs aren’t the only ones getting nervous.
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