The Horizon methodology (online sample) is of questionable real-world validity, so take this with a bag of salt:
Ardern drives vote switch: nett 10% leave National for Labour
Labour’s leadership change has potentially shifted 11% of the 2014 National Party vote to Labour, while 2% of Labour’s 2014 voters are switching to National.
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An August 11-15 Vote Switching poll by Horizon Research finds, among those who are both registered to vote and 100% likely to vote:• 11% of 2014 National Party voters – around 127,600 people – indicating a move to Labour for the next election. 2% of Labour’s 2014 voters – around 10,100 people – indicated they would vote National this election, which gives National a nett loss to Labour of around 117,400 voters.
• 59% of 2014 Green Party voters are now saying they will be voting for other parties in the 2017 general election. And nearly 8 in 10 of that group say they will now be voting for the Labour Party, with just over 3 in 10 saying that because of the recent benefit disclosures by Metiria Turei and her subsequent resignation as co-leader they were less likely to vote Green and nearly 7 in 10 indicating the change in Labour leadership has made them more likely to vote Labour.
• Loyalty among New Zealand First 2014 voters has dropped 10% to 72% between May and August Horizon polls. Labour’s leadership change is driving the change. However, New Zealand First potential gains from other parties are larger than the potential losses and this has strengthened the overall New Zealand First position.
Voter numbers projected in this report are based on the Electoral Commission’s Official Count Results for the 2014 New Zealand general election. The poll is of 959 adults nationwide representing the New Zealand 18+ population at the most recent census. At a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error on the overall result is +/- 3.2%. The analysis shown in this release is based on a sub-sample of 860 respondents who said they were both registered to vote and 100% likely to vote. …
Plenty more in the full piece. Not to be taken too seriously, but certainly indicative of bad news for the Greens and National, good news for Labour.
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