National’s list

mickysavage
4 years ago
Categories: election 2020, Judith Collins, national, same old national

It’s out. And it appears to be bolted together hurriedly rather than carefully crafted.

And a lot of it may be academic. Such is National’s current polling there will not be many list places to go around.

Four months ago I had a guess at what would happen if National polled at the then figure of 31%. I think the trends are clear and barring major developments Roy Morgan’s figure of 26% feels about right. And this is reinforced by door knocking that I have done recently where erstwhile National supporters have expressed either dismay or contempt for their party and admiration for Jacinda Ardern.

In that post I made these predictions about National electorate seats based on anything under a 5,000 majority would be up for grabs. I have revised them because two National MPs have, Kaye and Tolley have now gone.

Auckland Central which is marginal with a National majority of 1,500. With Kaye gone Labour’s Helen White has an outstanding opportunity to win the seat..
East Coast which has a majority of 4,800 and where Anne Tolley has retired could be vulnerable.
Chris Bishop in Hutt South (1,500 majority) has to be gone.
Maungakiekie’s Denise Lee (2,200) would be gone.
Nick Smith in Nelson (4,200) is under threat.
Matt King in Northland (1,300) could be in trouble depending if Labour cannibalises enough of the remaining NZ First votes.
Lawrence ~~Rule~~ Yule in Tukituki (2,800) would clearly be under threat.
In Waiarapa Kieran McNulty could become MP if he overcomes a 2,800 majority.
Whanganui (1,700) would surely flip to Labour.

Given current polling the figure is probably more like 7,000. This brings into play seats such as Hamilton East and on a good day Hamilton West, Invercargill, Northcote, Otaki, and theoretically Papakura although with recent boundary changes I presume that Judith is safe. Rotorua could be gone. For various local reasons even Upper Harbour could be vulnerable.

On a bad night National’s electorate seat numbers could be reduced from 41 to 25. At 26% National would have 7 list seats. This would meant that Goldsmith, McClay, Bishop, David Bennett, Woodhouse and Nicola Willis would be back and Mellisa Lee marginal but bear in mind that the more electorate seats they retain the fewer list positions they will have.

The biggest winner is Maureen Pugh, she who was described by Simon Bridges as “f&*king useless”. She has jumped 25 list positions. Maybe Judith is giving Bridges a message or maybe it is all to do with internal factional politics.

And the biggest losers are Alfred Ngaro who drops 10 positions from 20 to 30 and Jo Hayes who goes from 36 to 44. Collins’s claim that Ngaro will win Te Atatu is barking. He has no chance and unless National’s polling picks up considerably he will have no change.

National’s ethnic strategy is set to take a battering. They still have the list positions set aside for ethnic candidates, this time from 24 to 28 but again on current polling none of these candidates will get in.

National may emerge a more conservative, whiter and more countrified version of itself following this election. And increase dramatically the risk of a three term Labour Government.