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BBQ time for National

Written By: - Date published: 8:57 am, April 21st, 2020 - 88 comments
Categories: election 2020, national, paula bennett, same old national, Simon Bridges - Tags:

With the rather severe dip in National’s polling it is time to dust off the crystal ball and have a look at what may happen in September.

Currently National has 56 seats in Parliament. If one of the polls is correct then this could be reduced to 38 seats, a net loss of 18 seats. Given that National has 41 electorate seats and 15 list seats this is extremely problematic for them.

Although not uniform swings in party support often translate to electorate voting swings. I have taken as a rule of thumb that electorate seats with a majority of less than 5,000 are potentially up for grabs. This is approximately a 12% two party swing.

Assuming this the following seats are under threat:

  • Auckland Central which is marginal with a National majority of 1,500. With the movement in National support I cannot imagine Nikki Kaye hanging in there, despite some impressive performances in the past.
  • East Coast which has a majority of 4,800 and where Anne Tolley is going list only could be vulnerable.
  • Chris Bishop in Hutt South (1,500 majority) has to be gone.
  • Maungakiekie’s Melissa Denise Lee (2,200) would be gone.
  • Nick Smith in Nelson (4,200) is under threat.
  • Matt King in Northland (1,300) would be gone although this is complicated by the fact that Winston was the losing candidate.
  • Lawrence Rule in Tukituki (2,800) would clearly be under threat.
  • In Waiarapa Kieran McNulty could become MP if he overcomes a 2,800 majority.
  • Whanganui (1,700) would surely flip to Labour.

This would leave room for only 6 list MPs. Paula Bennett presumably takes the first slot and Paul Goldsmith the second. Tolley has her eyes on one. I presume they would try and make room for Kaye and Bishop.

But it means their clutch of Ethnic MPs are gone. Jian Yang would have to go back to teaching at Spy School. National’s fundraising would be decimated.

I saw the phenomenon in 2014 where increasingly rattled Labour MPs concentrated on the electorate vote and ignored the party vote. It accentuated the slide and only made things worse.

I suspect that despite the approach of Winter the BBQs are being fired up in National caucus land.

88 comments on “BBQ time for National ”

  1. That_guy 1

    Sorry to bug, which poll is this?

  2. mac1 2

    In 2002, National declined to 22%. It's going to get worse for National yet. Just reading the comments on Simon Bridges' face book page and the Herald today reacting to his latest pronouncements makes me shudder, almost in sympathy, certainly with pity. That's not a good emotion for a politician to be arousing in voters, nor is anger, nor is indignation.

    • solkta 2.1

      Just reading the comments on Simon Bridges' face book page

      With a quick read through the first hundred i could only spot two positive comments. He hasn't shot himself in the foot, he has blown off both his legs.

    • georgecom 2.2

      Looks like Bill Englishes "moral mandate" to govern is well and truly gone. Took Simon less than 3 years to dismantle it.

  3. Bruce 3

    Denise Lee is the MP for Maungakiekie, I know this because she fills my mail box and feed with endless self promotion in the guise of offers of support.

    https://deniselee.national.org.nz/

    [Thanks. I did know that … now corrected – MS]

  4. Sanctuary 4

    Auckland Central – Labour ought to run a not so sotte voce vote for Chloe campaign there. She is far good a politician to risk losing if the Greens plunge out of parliament by dropping below the threshold, and her winning the seat would also give the Greens a lifeboat option.

    • ScottGN 4.1

      I agree. National only holds this seat because of Labour Green vote splitting. But Labour voters I know in Auckland Central refuse to even entertain the prospect. There’s as many old Labour operatives just as wedded to outdated FPTP mentality as there are in National unfortunately.

      • observer 4.1.1

        Labour voters would point out that the party has held Auckland Central quite recently. Different from Coromandel, the only electorate the Greens have won.

        A deal would only work if a candidate completely withdraws. A nod and a wink wouldn't work. It's not like Epsom, where the Right can afford to waste thousands of votes on a National candidate, knowing Labour can't win an ultra-conservative seat anyway.

        Of course, once such a deal has been done, then the Greens are no longer an independent party, so from their POV, even the risk of falling below 5% may be preferable.

      • Phil 4.1.2

        National only holds this seat because of Labour Green vote splitting.

        Kaye has been the MP since 2008, so she's definitely doing something right for the local voters, over and above the effects of Labour and Green infighting.

        • Wensleydale 4.1.2.1

          Also, Nikki Kaye is probably one of the more palatable National MPs. I don't know what she's doing amongst that nest of vipers, to be honest.

    • Tiger Mountain 4.2

      Agree. She totally deserves it on talent as well as political expediency. But, there are Labour diehards similar to National diehards–and I have talked to both sets over recent times, that will not see it that way, and still tolerate MMP rather than fully embrace it, despite the diversity it has fostered in Parliament.

      National could be stitched up for 2020 with an electorate seat for Greens, and voting for Mr Goldsmith in Epsom.

      In the medium term, the next MMP review will please, please, hopefully lower the threshold to 3 or even 4%. The will of the people should be fostered to ultimately prevail, rather than necessarily having to use the system for a result.

    • Stunned Mullet 4.3

      NZ voters could try something completely out of character and vote for the best person to represent them at the local electorate level regardless of party affiliation and then vote for their preferred party in the party vote.

      • AB 4.3.1

        "vote for the best person"

        Some questions follow I think:

        • how separable is a 'person' from the beliefs they hold? i.e. is there an essential aspect to a 'person' that can somehow be better than what that person believes?
        • how separable is a 'person' from the material effects on other people that will flow from any practical implementation of their beliefs?

        IMHO – the call to vote for the 'best person' is a deliberate mystification of the democratic process. That is not to say that on a personal level we can't like people with beliefs we disagree with, and within that restricted domain, think of them as good people.

        • Stunned Mullet 4.3.1.1

          I do understand and appreciate your angle, IMO there's far to much voting at the electorate level that is pointless box ticking of the candidates party affiliation rather than looking at their ability to actually represent and assist those in their electorate.

          One of the great benefits of MMP should be that the vote for the electorate MP can be to large extent with a far lower consideration of their party affiliation.

          • You_fool 4.3.1.1.1

            My thought has always been that electorate MP's should not be able to hold ministry portfolios, or at least not "major" ones. The PM, Deputy PM and Finance minister and speaker of the house should definitely not be electorate MPs. How can people in such senior positions of national importance give the time to the local issues of their electorate and put in the effort of serving those people as needed?

            Top 10 (at least) of each party need to be list only… if you manage to get power with less list MPs than cabinet positions, then you are just going to have to add other list MPs from a different party.

            Local MPs for local issues, list (or national) MPs for national issues

            • Stunned Mullet 4.3.1.1.1.1

              Yes indeed – all those suggestions certainly have a great deal of merit.

      • Andre 4.3.2

        Vote for the person , not just tick the box for the party candidate? Well, OK, but Paulo Garcia or Deborah Russell? Fuck me, how did that even become a question?

        I'm struggling to think of any Nat MPs I might rate more highly than any of their Labour alternatives, and that's not praise for most of the Labour MPs. Maybe Nikki Kaye over some of the more useless Labour offerings, but that's about all that springs to mind.

        Ditto in the US. Although once I voted for the Republican for the House when the district incumbent was a Bob Menendez-style crook and the Republican was actually an honest principled guy. That was decades ago, though.

        edit: although if I were in Botany, maybe I’d vote JLR. For the lolz.

        • Stunned Mullet 4.3.2.1

          Which electorate are you in ?

          I suspect many people couldn't name their local MP let alone the other potential candidates in their electorate. Our parliament is only as good as the people we vote in.

          • Andre 4.3.2.1.1

            New Lynn.

            When Deborah Russell got the nod over Greg Presland, I was a bit disappointed because Greg has a really good handle on local issues, but Deborah became a fresh import. It looked to me like she might have been a good fit for the Wellington electorate Paul Eagle eventually got. She does seem to be doing good work, though.

            Can't remember the name of Deborah's Nat challenger. Just that she made somewhat of a fool of herself with some little twitter stir about something a little while back.

    • KJT 4.4

      Not a fan of that. To many Neo-liberals left in the establishment, in Labour, to want to tie the Greens to much with them.

      To much risk of ending up a "Poodle" like Seymour.

      Though I agree, losing Chloe, in Parliament, would be a huge loss.

    • Bg 4.5

      Oh that's the reason that Jacinda kept losing to Nikki Kaye until they fly her in to the safe Mt Albert seat? How many times did she lose to Nikki again???

      • The Al1en 4.5.1

        Like with Mike Catt and jona – It doesn’t matter how many times they show the steamroller video, only one finished their careers with a world cup winners medal?

        I’m sure the PM is okay with how it all turned out in the end.

      • McFlock 4.5.2

        who dat?

      • Anne 4.5.3

        A couple of times I think… when JK was at the peak of his popularity and Jacinda was a relative newcomer to politics and boundary changes plus gentrification meant it was favouring National. I said then Jacinda would be PM in ten years time. I was out by one year.

        Very immodest of me but who else will blow my trumpet.

  5. Muttonbird 5

    What happens if a party wins more electorate seats they are entitled to from the party vote?

  6. Peter 6

    I know people can hope, but this is all a bit like the kid in the famous Mitre 10 ad:

    "Mate, ya dreaming."

  7. Tricledrown 7

    Social distancing won't be a problem for the National caucus

  8. observer 8

    It won't be 2002 redux, because disgruntled National voters then had more options (United Future, NZF who had never been with Labour back then, ACT with a 5%+ caucus). Also, MMP was still fairly new and voters were still shopping around.

    So forget the 22% fantasy. National will still get around 40%, depending on how much they lose to ACT. There's no fringe party outside Parliament like Craig's Conservatives or the 1996 "Christian Coalition" picking up 3-4%.

    • Enough is Enough 8.1

      I tend to agree.

      By and large 95% of the country has supported the lockdown and the actions taken by the government. Off the back of that I would expect Labour to have rocketed to the levels Key's government was at its height (mid 50s).

      There is core right wing vote of about 40%. They have nowhere to go other than ACT, so I expect National will swing between 35 and 40.

      Hopefully by the time of the election, we will be in level 1, and other then closed borders we will be up and running again. Therefore the election issue will be the economic recovery and who is best placed to get unemployment back to 5%.

      • Tricledrown 8.1.1

        EIE and some will vote NZ first just to put a handbrake on an outright Labour victory

        • Enough is Enough 8.1.1.1

          Yeah that is also a possibility, although there is genuine hatred from Nat supporters.

          Winston's idiotic claim for damages, which failed miserably yesterday, will not be forgotten in a hurry.

    • AB 8.2

      Agreed. And I'd perversely be disappointed if Bill English lost the record of the worst performance (at 22%) – because he so richly deserves to hold and keep it. In fact as a defective outlier with such an extremely poor performance under his belt, he is ripe for some 'social investment' analysis to determine the origins of his incorrigibility and failure.

      • Enough is Enough 8.2.1

        Bill English v Jacindamania

        44.45 36.89

        • AB 8.2.1.1

          That's true. But the 22% is forever his, and my dislike of him is fueled by what I took to be the very regressive opinions he seemed to hold concerning the supposed uselessness of some of his fellow citizens.

          • Phil 8.2.1.1.1

            Back in the 90's I heard English call people from Christchurch "Aucklanders who got lost" which, as a Christchurch-raised loyalist, I think is a truly great comic burn on my home town.

  9. Stephen D 9

    Back to Hooten’s numbers. It’s hard to believe ACT are on 5%. Don’t they usually poll around 0.5?

    • Tricledrown 9.1

      Bridges is to much of a Dick for National supporters So they are happy to support a bigger Dick.

    • Craig H 9.2

      They did well in 2002 when National were obviously sinking, so I think National is a large tent (as is Labour) which tends to splinter to other options if they don't have a chance of winning (as does Labour's vote).

    • Sanctuary 9.3

      The ACT vote represents National shedding voters.

      The hardline rightwing fanatics (e.g the Kiwiblog sewer) who think Bridge's and the National party caucus should have burst into the beehive theatrette wearing matador outfits, waving pistols and speaking in an accent as close as possible to that of Jair Bolsonaro to attempt a coup have gone off in a huff to ACT, who they fondly think is still somehow relevant.

    • Anne 9.4

      Perhaps a temporary boost on the back of the Euthanasia debate? He earned (rightly or wrongly depending on one's view) quite a few brownie points on his handling of the process.

      • Incognito 9.4.1

        Don’t forget the gun ‘debate’. Duck shooters will be all up in arms if they’re not allowed to shoot a few birdies and David will be there to the rescue, of the hunters.

  10. Sacha 10

    So who is the next Nat party leader?

    • Scumbag Andy 10.1

      That blue thing standing to the right of the Cookie Man. God help us. I can't stop laughing about it. Can you imagine.

    • woodart 10.2

      who can bring in the bags of cash?havent heard much of the last air NZ boss. keeping his head down.

      • Nic181 10.2.1

        Cue, yet another dodgy "business man" from Asia. You never know, the Nat candidate school just might get a graduate for around $100k.

  11. Chris T 11

    Seems a bit of a cynical post to me given the circumstances.

    It isn't rocket science that the opposition parties currently are getting no air time and the government are getting all of it.

    Of course the polls will reflect this.

    Reminds me of Key after the ChCh earthquakes and Labour disappearing.

    Seems an odd thing to celebrate over to me. Just personal opinion though.

  12. Maungakiekie has lost the Labour voting end to Otahuhu Panmure and gained the National voting part of Mt Roskill. This makes Maungakiekie very safe for Denise Lee and Mt Roskill a much safer seat for Labour.

  13. Observer Tokoroa 13

    A Name Change

    The banner word 'National'. should be removed from that of political parties, for it suggests that it is the official name of our Parliament.

    It also forever pops up as the National Radio. Very often confusing. It might well be tagged as the National madhouse at times.

    Nobody quite knows what 'National' does. Sir John Key did some interesting non- political things when he was romping around. But he was by no means the only strange one.

    As for Labour. It should drop the punishing word and simply Banner as the Greater People's Party

  14. Nic181 14

    I really hope this analysis is correct but National voters appear to stick like the proverbial to a blue blanket! I would love to see Yule gone from TukiTuki. His interest is farming and business. As Mayor of Hastings he led a council so keen to cut cost they failed to maintain water wells. The result was the largest campylobacter outbreak ever seen in NZ. I fear the Labour candidate for the last two election is unelectable, time for someone with less baggage.

    • woodart 14.1

      yule also led hastings council into a huge deficit, then tried hard to get all hawkes bay councils to amalgamate ,so as to get other ratepayers to pay for his phuckups. socialise the loses. very poor mayor, couldnt believe(but should have) that people were stupid enough to send him to welly. put a monkey in a blue suit and many will vote for him.

      • Nic181 14.1.1

        Dead right! Unfortunately the blues in HB always turn out. I signed up in the hope that the reds just might do the same!

  15. Obtrectator 15

    For the love of Pete, don't start getting carried away at this early stage with what those numbers seem to indicate. If the economy tanks after May 11, despite the Government's best efforts, the blue tide will start to flow again, and possibly damn fast.

  16. infused 16

    I think you're going to find the country in pretty bad shape come this time.

    I don't support simon at all, but i'd be careful what you wish for.

  17. Johnny on the spot 17

    Breaking News – Nacional- El Secundo- coup!

  18. Nic181 18

    Let them burn, particularly the member for TukiTuki!!!

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