Current polls leave National/minor and Labour/Green both short of majority. I had fond hopes that the left might get there without NZF, but we’re running out of time for that. Like it or not (I don’t) the chances of NZF determining the shape of the next government are increasing:
Newshub poll: Winston Peters cements position as kingmaker
Things are looking grim for both Labour and National ahead of the election, with the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll showing nasty drops.
National’s on 45.2 percent, down 2.2 percent. It’s now in the ‘danger zone’, unable to put a Government together on that.
Meanwhile Labour’s dropped 2.3 percent to 24.1 percent – the lowest ever on this poll in nine years.
Those votes have to go somewhere, and they’ve gone to New Zealand First and Winston Peters. It’s up 3.6 percent to 13 percent – its highest ever on this poll.
The Greens are also up, by 0.5 percent, bringing them to 13 percent too. It’s a strong result and the first time New Zealand First and Greens have been equal. …
‘We’ve got a lot of work to do’: English says new poll shows current govt would lose election
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“On that poll last night, the current Government would lose the election, so we’ve got a lot of hard work to do over the next two months, because we’ve got to get our support up.” …
I’ve always assumed that Peters would go with National, but maybe not, if NZF members get a say. There was a fascinating piece by Branko Marcetic on The Spinoff earlier this month:
I joined NZ First and went to their conference to find out what they’re really up to
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To its supporters, NZ First is the only party that truly gives a damn about the average Kiwi, and its policies are born of fairness and common sense. To its detractors, it’s a hotbed of racism and intolerance that threatens to bring Trump-like authoritarianism to New Zealand.In an attempt to cut through the noise and get a sense of what the party truly is about in 2017, I decided to immerse myself, and look at the party as an insider. I paid the $10 fee to join the party, and signed up to attend the conference …
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Despite the party’s association with anti-foreigner sentiment, immigration was rarely touched on across the weekend. In fact, if there was a prevailing theme weaving through the various speeches, discussions and debates at the 2017 conference, it was a steadfast opposition to neoliberal economics, a belief that New Zealand had gravely erred in the embrace of deregulation and globalised trade since the days of Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson.
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Although it continues to see itself as a party of the centre, the New Zealand First on display at the conference often sounded like it had been founded by Jim Anderton when it came to economic issues. The running theme was that New Zealanders are caught in the clutches of the unscrupulous, wealthy and often foreign; in the thrall of the failed post-1984 neoliberal experiment. The ordinary working Kiwi is getting shafted – particularly in the regions – runs the message.
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The party’s MPs, swept into power with a surprise resurgence in 2014, hit the same note in their speeches. Fletcher Tabuteau railed against the economic inequality that had been “caused by a failed neoliberal order”, which had made business, not people, the centre of political conversation. It was time for “trickle-up economics”, said the MP, that would build an economy from the bottom up.Denis O’Rourke complained that the National government had failed on housing and public transport, and bemoaned the state of Auckland’s transport infrastructure. Clayton Mitchell said that his reason for being in New Zealand First was the “growing gap in inequality”, and called for a renewed focus on getting workers “a fair day’s wage”. Ria Bond spoke about the urgency of taking better care of the mentally ill, a point that would be returned to again the next day in a guest speech by comedian Mike King.Mahesh Bindra, the party’s spokesperson on corrections, called for the re-nationalisation of privatised prisons and for prisoners to be put to work in order “to earn their stay, like everyone else”.
Economic populism was evident in the party-wide debate over proposed remits. … Similarly, while NZ First is hardly renowned for its environmental policies, several remits related to environmental protection passed, including one to look into subsidising renewable energy installation in homes. Another called for a review of the strategy for minimising “contamination poisoning and unsustainability”.
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Peters’ speech continued this theme. “Some of us know what poverty smells, tastes and feels like,” he remarked, in between assailing the government for housing, mental health, education, policing and other policies that failed ordinary New Zealanders. He charged that “the poor have been bypassed and the middle-class have been left behind,” that “people are sick of worrying about bills,” that middle class families “were barely treading water”. Kiwis “want to know why as working men and women they are so damn poor.” He called National the “Robin Hood party in reverse” and railed against zero-hour contracts.
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“The 33-year-old model of Douglas and Richardson is utterly broken,” he later said to more audible agreement.
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Peters’ railing against post-1980s neoliberalism isn’t something he just introduced to the stump. As Bill Ralston pointed out last month, he’s been criticising the “neoliberal experiment” in front of other audiences. But as Ralston also (somewhat unwittingly) points out, it’s a significant departure from current New Zealand political orthodoxy, which since the 1980s has meant both major parties tacitly agree that Labour’s reforms in the 1980s are essentially permanent.
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The view of NZ First from the inside may similarly help to explain Labour’s polling doldrums this election. It looks clear enough that many formerly reliable Labour voters have been swayed by the Winston Peters’ open rejection of the “neoliberal experiment”. …
It’s a long and fascinating piece – go read the whole thing on The Spinoff.
I don’t understand NZF voters, because I can’t imagine voting for a party whose basic alignment isn’t clear. It’s still obvious that Peters himself could swing either way, and the political left should in no way be relying on him. But as to his party, it’s a lot further to the left than I thought. If NZF members get a say, that’s hopeful.
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