The Roy Morgan and Fairfax/Ipsos polls out overnight are both bad news for the cause of positive change in New Zealand. Labour is below 25% in both polls, which is disaster territory if is solidifies. And even the broadest possible left-bloc (Labour, Greens, NZF, I/M) is only drawing 46% in the Morgan poll and 41% in the Ipsos poll. A couple of weeks ago, this bloc was averaging 47% in the poll of polls (which I will update later in this week).
Some are suggesting online that the vote split in the Ipsos poll (males 61% National, females only 49% National) shows that David Cunliffe’s apology regarding domestic violence hurt Labour in the polls. That does not follow from the evidence in these polls, as the substantial gender gap in support is fairly stable across multiple polls. In fact, the poll-to-poll change for Labour over the period of the apology was +1.7% among men, and only +1.5% among women.
While I think it would be irresponsible to blame single comments (whether about manhood or moas or whatever else) for the state of things, it is obvious now that there is no room for further slips. Closing this gap within 9 weeks will – at a minimum – require everyone of the left working hard, seamlessly, together, and well.
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