Polls and the art of confusion

Nats Golden Run – the headline accompanied by vivid graphic in the Dom Post yesterday would have had many on the left sighing into their morning long black. But upon looking at it more closely I discovered that the dramatic graph wasn’t the result of the Fairfax poll (which has the National/Labour gap closing one point from 19 to 18) but was, in fact, combined with Colmar Brunton. Similarly on the preferred PM poll Key has dropped two while Clark dropped one.

It seemed to me that the poll results were actually incidental to what the story was going to be. With seven weeks to go I suspect we will be “polled out” by the time we get to the one that really matters. And when you see stories take on such levels of creativity, and then add in the “who’s not talking” to pollsters in general  we’re going to have to wait until election day before we will find out what people really think.

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