Chris Trotter and Martyn Bradbury have been running some interesting theories recently.
The theories are straight out of beltway, or at least a twisted part of beltway.
Chris reported in this post on rumours that that Jacinda was going to resign as Prime Minister. The basis for his claim? A usually reliable source.
Comrade Chris thought that Jacinda had recently been “out of sorts”, “morose”, “not her usual self” and speculated that she was pregnant.
He then chose to repeat completely discredited Colmar Brunton polling analysis where a change in polling technique suggested Jacinda’s popularity was waning. Only if Judith’s is tanking. Stephen Mills, who knows something about polling, was properly dismissive of the claim.
Piling hyperbole on top of hyperbole comrade Chris then said this:
In normal circumstances, this might have worked. But, from what I have discovered over the past 72 hours, these are not normal circumstances. Only last week, Robertson’s friend and mentor, Sir Michael Cullen, a man stoically succumbing to terminal lung cancer, is reported to have told a select gathering of Labour Party notables that: “It is not enough simply to win – you have to DO something.” Aware of how determined the PM is to “do” as Sir Michael advises; seized also, as his boss is said to be, by intimations of mortality, Robertson, “the reluctant radical” seems ready, for once, to throw caution to the wind.
From all sides, now, comes word of the imminence of “something big” being announced. The Labour caucus is said to be both “nervous” and “excited”.
And how did Comrade Martyn handle this disclosure? Not very well:
Th[e] latest political rumour being feverishly spread through the back channels is that Jacinda and Grant are at loggerheads over a secret new policy programme to the point that Jacinda has threatened to resign if Grant doesn’t give it to her.
Now sure, there is a secret new policy programme and sure it is transformative, but the resistance to it isn’t coming from Grant, it’s coming from the Wellington Bureaucratic elites who are terrified that Jacinda intends to actually make them help the people.
Reporting on gossip, that is almost inevitably wrong, is not the basis for a sound policy discussion.
Coincidentally I saw Jacinda on Saturday. She was out with Clark and her daughter. They were clearly wanting to get some family time together.
After the past 12 months should she feel jaded? Having guided us through a global pandemic that has brought many nations to their knees and winning a historic election result what do you think?
And she is probably getting pretty tired of the beltway demanding that she has regular drinks with them rather than spend time with her daughter.
Bradbury’s attempt to suggest that debt is the sticking point is strange. Interest rates have never been lower, the economy is remarkably robust and the rather dire predictions for the economy have proven to be very conservative, and very wrong. And the current debt trends suggest there is a significant amount of head room.
Today the Government will announce its response to the housing crisis. I suspect that there will be some pretty radical responses proposed. Which is a good thing.
But Jacinda announcing her resignation as PM? Comrades Trotter and Bradbury should interview their laptops less.
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