I’m back at work at my home office desk today. I have to say that the weather generally sucked in Auckland and the north of the North Island over my break. Waiting for Luxon and his brain-dead minions will blame the weather on the government – because apparently that is all that they can ever say. But mostly it is just La Niña – now in the third year of her current reign.
Anyway, this is the NIWA summary.
Outlook summary
NIWA: “Seasonal climate outlook January 2023 – March 2023“
- La Niña continued during December and a marine heatwave intensified in Aotearoa New Zealand’s coastal waters with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) 1.1˚C to 1.8˚C above average. La Niña is most likely to ease to neutral by early autumn. [View more background information.]
- Air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal over and to the south of the South Island and lower than normal north of the country. This is expected to be associated with an easterly quarter air flow anomaly for the season as a whole.
- Rainfall is most likely to be above normal in the east of the North Island, below normal in the west of the South Island, near normal in the west of the North Island, and about equally likely to be near normal or above normal across the remainder of the country.
- Warmer than average regional seas are expected to fuel occasional heavy rainfall, such as during early January; however, during periods of high pressure, dry spells will occur, particularly about inland and western parts of both islands. A dry spell is possible in the mid-to-late January period. The risk for dryness is elevated for Otago, Southland, and West Coast.
- Temperatures are about equally likely to be near average or above average in the north and east of the South Island and east of the North Island and very likely to be above average across the remainder of the country.
- A reduction in northwesterly “foehn” winds will likely mean fewer hot days for eastern areas in particular. Sub-tropical air masses, in conjunction with marine heatwave conditions, will likely keep overnight temperatures and humidity elevated across much of the country. However, this may also lead to more cloud, keeping daytime temperatures down.
- There is a medium risk for tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific during January. New Zealand’s risk for ex-tropical cyclone activity is normal-to-elevated through April. These systems can cause flooding rainfall, strong winds, and coastal hazards.
- Soil moisture levels are most likely to be near normal in all regions. River flows are equally likely to be near normal or below normal in the west of the South Island, about equally likely to be near normal or above normal in the east of the North Island and north of the South Island, and most likely to be near normal in all other regions.
It seems like I should have set up my home office in the South Island in this quarter.
Since I got back to Auckland on the 30th, it seems like it has alternated between heavy rain, and sharp showers with enough sunshine intervening to make sure that the place got really sticky. I’m already shuddering to see what February (usually Auckland worst sticky month) will bring.
As is now expected, we won’t get much of a ENSO-neutral period when this La Niña expires. But it is likely to be very short this time.
NIWA’s analysis indicates that La Niña will most likely transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March (60-65% chance), probably later in the three month period. During April-June, ENSO-neutral is favoured at around a 65% chance. The odds for El Niño have risen to 60% for winter 2023. August-October has a 65-70% chance for El Niño conditions. The last time El Niño conditions were observed during winter and spring was 2015.
Of the three “triple dip” La Niña episodes (three consecutive La Niña events) since 1900, two were followed by El Niño conditions in the following winter/spring and one was followed by neutral conditions.
NIWA: “Seasonal climate outlook January 2023 – March 2023 – Background“
In the meantime, there is tropical cyclone expected in the North Island starting today hitting mostly south of Auckland. However heavy rain is predicted for Auckland.
The weather sucks. I’m surprised that Luxon hasn’t popped up yet blaming it on the Labour being unable to do anything about it. :twisted:.
After all National have blamed every other world event’s effect on NZ on the Labour government in the last couple of years. Pandemic and surviving it with limited death rates, war in Europe, imported inflation from energy, They’re good at complaining. It is a pity that they have no actual policies about stopping bad weather – just the vague hand waving of the discredited trickle down economics.
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