Christchurch East – A safe seat?

Written By: - Date published: 1:21 pm, June 19th, 2013 - 26 comments
Categories: labour - Tags: ,

Lianne Dalziel’s confirming her run for the mayoralty of Christchurch will be great for the people of the city.  They desperately need the kind of positive vision and experience that she will provide.  Word on the ground is that people are lining up to support her from all sides of the political spectrum.  She’ll be a great mayor for the city as it rebuilds.

Of course this means a by-election in Christchurch East.

By-elections are funny, and difficult to predict. Particularly when a long-serving, locally popular MP has held a seat even when the underlying opinion in the electorate has moved.

And Christchurch East is like that: Lianne Dalziel held the seat in 2011 with a margin of over 5,000 votes – but National not only beat Labour by over 4,000 votes on the party vote, it also beat Labour and the Greens combined by nearly 1,000 votes.

If an electorate loses its long serving MP then its electorate vote usually becomes much more closely aligned with the party vote. That makes National the slight favourite going into a Christchurch East by-election.

Whoever the Labour candidate is for the by-election they’ll have a real fight on their hands. The Labour candidate’s position gets even tougher if the Greens – who have a good profile in Christchurch – run a strong candidate.

After sitting out Ikaroa-Rawhiti National’s party machine will be fresh and their coffers full; Labour will at least be battle-hardened.

The mood in Christchurch has toughened against the government since the 2011 election as people, particularly out east, feel abandoned and have to suffer injury upon insult from Hekia Parata, Gerry Brownlee and National.  So there’s every chance for Labour to win, but its going to be a long way from a cake-walk.

26 comments on “Christchurch East – A safe seat? ”

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  1. Sanctuary 1
    19 June 2013 at 1:49 pm

    Bomber Bradbury claims he door knocked 5000 houses in Christchurch East, and he has Mana leading for a shock win.

  2. weka 2
    19 June 2013 at 1:54 pm

    Wouldn’t now be a good time for Labour and the GP to be strengthening their relationship?

    I’d like to know if there is a good strategic or pragmatic reason why Labour and the Greens shouldn’t be talking concessions here and at the next election. It seems to really have gone out of favour on the left, and I can certainly understand why the GP is going hard for whatever vote it can get given how Labour has treated it in the past handful of elections and coalition negotiations, but wouldn’t it make more sense for coalition partners to work together pre-election?

  3. tc 3
    19 June 2013 at 2:51 pm

    Another one fleeing DS and his caucus of old school has beens. Competant without being a star, if greens and labour negate each other and the nats come through to win this its on the hands of all DS backers.

    Step up DS, time to show you can lead and help the candidate win and do a deal with the greens to give clear space…….the test begins now.

  4. Rogue Trooper 4
    19 June 2013 at 3:25 pm

    an aside from the flooding, after the quake, the land profiles, sinks, have changed, altering the overland flows.-John Mackie.

  5. Progressive Paradox 5
    19 June 2013 at 3:26 pm

    Bunji, it seems a bit of a stretch to call National the ‘slight favourite’ in the by-election. First of all 2011 was exceptional circumstances, arguably in Christchurch East more than any other electorate in the country. Turnout was incredibly low and National’s previous candidate, Gilmore has had to resign in disgrace.

    Regardless of the change in the attitude of the electorate towards National(no place more evident than Christchurch), the reality the last time the incumbent party lost a by-election in an electorate was 1985, which I’m sure most on the site will agree was exceptional circumstances.

  6. Winston Smith 6
    19 June 2013 at 3:31 pm

    Yes, spend more money (which you don’t have) on a by election that’ll have little effect on how the country run so you have less to spend on the election…

    I like it, its a good idea

    • Colonial Viper 6.1
      19 June 2013 at 3:47 pm

      You really dislike the idea of democracy, don’t you?

      • Winston Smith 6.1.1
        19 June 2013 at 4:15 pm

        Democracy is for ancient Greeks, in this case I like democracy as much as the left do (when the right are in charge)

        But I’m sure the Labour brains committee have it all worked out, I bet they have a cunning plan on how to coax money out of the business community right after they’ve been scaring them

        I’m sure National won’t pour money into safe Labour seats knowing it’ll spread Labours resources even thinner (which sucks for the marginal seats)

        Theres no way National will use all its contacts and leverage to make sure the MSM tow the line when it comes to reporting and that nice John Campbell…well TV3 is in a bit of strife

        How much do you like democracy?

  7. Ad 7
    19 June 2013 at 4:58 pm

    Anyone here keen to have a go?

    Or failing that, assist Lianne to run Christchurch?

  8. DS 8
    19 June 2013 at 6:11 pm

    Party vote is not a good barometer for electorate votes, especially in landslide elections like 2002 and 2011, where National and Labour won just four and seven seats’ party vote respectively, but won twenty or so electorates. Moreover 2011 in Christchurch was a Hurricane Katrina election, which means the 2011 results were even more out of the ordinary.

    I’m a dyed-in-the-wool Labourite, but frankly, if we can’t win Christchurch East, that’d be a disaster, and no amount of expectations manipulation via claiming the Tories to be slight favourites will change that.

  9. Brett Dale 9
    19 June 2013 at 7:47 pm

    Can someone please what specific policies Lianne put in place to improve the lifes of the people in Aranui? (during her whole time as MP)

    • handle 9.1
      19 June 2013 at 10:57 pm

      Whne she was the Minister for Christchurch, you mean? Only one of those you need to be questioning.

  10. Binders full of women 10
    19 June 2013 at 8:35 pm

    Just don’t send Grant Robertson or Moroney (Sue?) down there to help the candidate campaign.. they scare voters away. Maybe send Cunliffe, O’Connor (can’t think of any others) down there.

    • Hami Shearlie 10.1
      20 June 2013 at 11:02 am

      I don’t think the Labour Party ABC brigade realise yet that Grant Robertson is NOT POPULAR with members or the general public either. He’s kind of dishevelled with a permanent smirk of “Aren’t I clever with these questions I ask”!! He came THIRD in the party vote in his electorate. Imagine him as Leader – and make no mistake, he’s lining up his duckies for the takeover! The Party is doomed if Robertson follows Shearer. Nothing is more certain!!!

      • Rosetinted 10.1.1
        20 June 2013 at 11:21 am

        Lighten and brighten your day with rubber duckie from Sesame Street. Get your Pavlovian reaction here – so that you automatically think of this when you think of Labour’s wet line up!

  11. pollywog 11
    20 June 2013 at 9:50 am

    Need to either, clone Kris Fa’afoi and parachute him into the hood, or get his ex ‘What Now’ presenting brother Farty, in there.

    One Fa’afoi just leaves me wanting more!

    • Hami Shearlie 11.1
      20 June 2013 at 10:58 am

      It’s a Fa’a Fa’a better thing you do than you have ever done before? But unfortunately, in this case it isn’t! The thought of another Fa’afoi just makes me grind down my tooth enamel even faster!!

  12. Veutoviper 12
    20 June 2013 at 11:27 am

    I wonder who National will run as a candidate?

    Perhaps this guy – remember him? He had dinner with Gilmore a month or so ago.

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=RICHES.NATIONAL.2014

    OK – I am stirring; but it would not surprise me; but I am not a Cantabrian.

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