Daily review 13/02/2020

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 pm, February 13th, 2020 - 76 comments
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Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

76 comments on “Daily review 13/02/2020 ”

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  1. James 1
    13 February 2020 at 6:26 pm

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-national-and-act-hold-numbers-form-government?auto=6132080631001

    National and act have the numbers to create the next government according to the latest poll.

    awesome news.

    • Sacha 1.1
      13 February 2020 at 6:30 pm

      Bankers rejoice!

    • Cinny 1.2
      13 February 2020 at 6:38 pm

      Just want to point out it will be a very different election because of the referendums. Some people who don't usually vote will this year.

      Back to the poll, simon is on 11%, so 89% of the country does not want him as PM, that in itself speaks volumes.

      • James 1.2.1
        13 February 2020 at 6:51 pm

        1 – the preferred PM poll is just that and means nothing. The fact that people (in this poll) prefer the party that has him as leader says a lot more. Still I guess Jacinda can take her preferred PM poll when she’s out after one term.

        2 – it’s also preferred PM – does lot mean that people don’t want him as PM. That’s why the party still gets sooooooo many votes.

        • McFlock 1.2.1.1
          13 February 2020 at 7:12 pm

          lol so many votes, so few friends.

          Maybe they can govern alone based on that poll, maybe the margin for error still puts them as the biggest loser…

          • James 1.2.1.1.1
            13 February 2020 at 9:16 pm

            Lol. You assume MOE can’t go the other direction.

            • McFlock 1.2.1.1.1.1
              13 February 2020 at 9:26 pm

              Maybe they can govern alone based on that poll […]

              Included in that bit.

              National have two possibilities:

              • Govern alone (plus the Echo from Epsom); or
              • be in opposition (probably as the biggest loser).

              Labour have:

              • govern with the Greens (yay);
              • govern with NZ1 (boo);
              • govern with NZ1 and the Greens (bugger);
              • go into opposition.

              MMP politics is the art of making friends. National No-mates forgot that years ago.

        • ScottGN 1.2.1.2
          13 February 2020 at 7:17 pm

          Ardern’s personal numbers have improved by 6% on her already high result from the last poll James. Even your sainted Key never managed that sort of improvement from one poll to another in his heyday. And certainly not what you’d expect if the country was in the mood to throw out the government.

          • James 1.2.1.2.1
            13 February 2020 at 9:17 pm

            No. Because his were higher.

            • Incognito 1.2.1.2.1.1
              13 February 2020 at 9:26 pm

              Link please showing Key's approval rating around the same time in the election cycle; you have the advantage of having three to choose from.

              • alwyn …
                13 February 2020 at 10:21 pm

                In the 1 News, CB poll at the corresponding time in his first term we had

                19 December 2010 Key on 49.1%

                20 Feb 2011 Key on 48%

                10 April 2011 Key on 55%.

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_New_Zealand_general_election#Preferred_Prime_Minister

                Seems to favour James' opinion wouldn't you think?

                • Incognito …
                  13 February 2020 at 10:57 pm

                  Thank you so kindly, Alwyn, I know you are trying to be helpful. However, you seem to have missed the point, which is that James was meant to back up his ‘opinion’ with a link/source in the first place and you have now pre-empted James correcting his accidental omission.

                  • McFlock …
                    13 February 2020 at 11:00 pm

                    lol I think a few folk could hear the Jaws theme start up after the second request for links…

                  • alwyn …
                    14 February 2020 at 9:56 am

                    Oh, how careless of me.

                    To think that I considered you were genuinely interested in the answer to the question? My apologies to James for spoiling his chance to be the first one to provide you with the information.

                    Oh well I guess the comment I made can be taken as information for ScottGN who claimed that

                    "Ardern’s personal numbers have improved by 6% on her already high result from the last poll James. Even your sainted Key never managed that sort of improvement from one poll to another in his heyday. "

                    He will see that he is quite wrong as Key went up by 7% between consecutive polls by the same Organisation on 20 Feb 2011 and 10 April 2011.

                    I'm sure that ScottGN will be interested to see that his unsupported claim was wrong.

                    • Incognito …
                      14 February 2020 at 10:29 am

                      Answers are important, debate is more important, behaviour is most important and they are not mutually exclusive, Alwyn; I can be genuinely interested in all three simultaneously. James has form with stirring and making up shit, which is why he tends to attract the attention of Moderators.

      • New view 1.2.2
        13 February 2020 at 7:39 pm

        The last election was all about the leader Cinny. In the mean time the voting public are realising that the leader is a front person and nothing more. Bridges is who he is and doesn’t come across well but the Nats are realising that their team is still strong. Ask yourself Cinny why are so many NZrs prepared to Vote National. They’re not all nasty right wing aresoles they can’t be. There must be another reason Cinny. I know it’s hard for you but what could it be. A Government trying to buy this election like it did the last. Problem is more and more people don’t believe them any more and are concerned about trusting them for six years let alone nine.

        • Blazer 1.2.2.1
          13 February 2020 at 8:01 pm

          trying to figure out which Natz M.P's have really made an impression in the last 2.5 years=0.

        • Cinny 1.2.2.2
          13 February 2020 at 9:01 pm

          newview, are you saying that having a popular leader makes no difference? national never won an election under bill english and he was their least unpopular leader.

          nat's pointing fingers re buying elections…. now that's funny as, they are possibly the worst out of the lot for it.

          Around 25% of their sitting MP's are leaving, so ask yourself newview, is that a sign of a strong party?

          • Cinny 1.2.2.2.1
            13 February 2020 at 9:13 pm

            Edit… I mean billenglish was their most unpopular leader, not least lololz 🙂 Least popular, yes

        • Incognito 1.2.2.3
          13 February 2020 at 9:22 pm

          Bridges is who he is and doesn’t come across well but the Nats are realising that their team is still strong.

          With 13 gone since last election that’s almost a quarter of the ‘team’ gone, which is a big churn.

          A Government trying to buy this election like it did the last.

          Please elaborate how the Winston Peters ‘stole’ government away from National’s greedy grip and made Jacinda Ardern the ‘accidental PM’ translates into the current Government “buying” the election in 2017 after nine years of National Government. How much did the Greens put on the table to seal the deal with the electorate?

          Some Nats still reel from their ‘loss’ in 2017 like some Lefties still reel from 1984.

          Problem is more and more people don’t believe them any more and are concerned about trusting them for six years let alone nine.

          Instead, they trust a party and leader whose MO is attack ads full of fake!?

          • New view 1.2.2.3.1
            14 February 2020 at 7:41 am

            Well Incognito, you may be right about those Nats leaving weakening the team or you could be wrong but 46% of voters are prepared to stick by or join National. You tell me why that is. To me Labour bought the last election last time by mouthing a long list of “we will do this” via JA. National didn’t try to outbid labour in that election. That list of promises was the ticket to the election but they had to to come good on their extravagant claims, and I believe that 46% of voters think that they haven’t come good on enough of them. You tell me why 4% more voters are prepared to vote National. I’m well aware it’s only one poll but the public won’t be to keen on more promises from labour.

            • solkta 1.2.2.3.1.1
              14 February 2020 at 8:00 am

              "Ten bridges, ten bridges, ten bridges", said Bridges.

              And a motorway, for some long long distant day.

              "People know our track record in the North" he said.

            • Incognito 1.2.2.3.1.2
              14 February 2020 at 8:11 am

              National didn’t try to outbid labour in that election.

              Well, Joyce promised us a big hole and that never eventuated. Anyway, he’s gone.

              They also underbid in the negotiations with NZF and lost out on their fourth term. Arrogance personified.

              It seems they have learned from their mistakes by keeping it real and keeping the cat-flap open for a coalition with NZF.

              National’s team, if there was any to start with, is crumbling and their captain is not seeing the icebergs. They are good with attack ads, fakery, and misleading Facebook messages, which bodes well for them governing our country.

              Are you suggesting people will vote National (again) so that they can and will solve the housing problem as well as child poverty? Or because Simon is now promising a tunnel instead of ten bridges? How is this for an empty promise:

              When we say we’ll do something, we’ll do it

              Let’s do it, Simon, this time, or maybe next time or maybe never …

              • New view …
                14 February 2020 at 8:22 am

                I’ve given you my take on the situation. You tell me why you think National are doing so well in the polls.

                [Fixed typo in e-mail address]

    • McFlock 1.3
      13 February 2020 at 6:43 pm

      Excellent. Gives no-bridges enough oxygen to stay the face of the nats for a while longer.

    • Ad 1.4
      13 February 2020 at 6:45 pm

      An excellent reminder to all Labour supporters and Labour MPs that they cannot rely on Ardern alone to get back into power.

      Also a timely reminder to the Green Party that if they really want more actual influence that the crumbs they accept at the moment, they will have to work a whole lot harder in the media to get above 5%.

      There is 9 months of hard political work ahead for us all, if this is to be more than a lackluster and overhyped one-term government.

      • pat 1.4.1
        13 February 2020 at 7:00 pm

        7 months….hopefully

      • McFlock 1.4.2
        13 February 2020 at 7:08 pm

        I am sure the Greens thank you for your campaigning advice.

        Here's my prediction for the campaign, and we don't need a telescope to see it:

        the nats are going to sling as much shit as possible, and will have zero friends other than their gun-nut Echo from Epsom.

        Labour will try to stay positive, will do better than last time, but will still need friends (and some "left" commenters here will shit on every policy announcement they make, but they'll live).

        The Greens will run a solid campaign and try to push things left, and this time will probably not have a clusterfuck a few weeks out. Which means they'll probably do better than 5% (a level they last hit 15 years ago).

        The only doubt is about NZ1, but they still have a miles better chance of getting 5% than ACT.

        Does this guarantee another Lab-led coalition? Of course not. Complacency is a fast track to obscurity. But I reckon everyone on the left know their job, and it's doubtful that the current nats have anything original in the pipeline.

        edit: oh – and further JLR fallout might drop at any time.

        • weka 1.4.2.1
          13 February 2020 at 9:31 pm

          Also, NZ likes to elect three term govts.

          Can't see the Green vote going up from anywhere other than Labour (maybe a sprinkling of the non-vote), which means for Labour to do better they'd have to get the NZF vote and more swing votes than last time. Seeing if Lab votes switch to the Greens is going to be interesting.

          • McFlock 1.4.2.1.1
            13 February 2020 at 9:46 pm

            There the cannabis referendum, which might bring some alienated non-voters out. And I reckon the Greens will do well with the youth vote – better than usual, I mean.

            I am not sure that the nats are sparking with their supporters 100% – if some of those don't go to NZ1, they might not bother driving to the polling booth.

            At 70% turnout, it might not be so much "swing voters" who come into play, it might be which party's fairweather supporters feel like going into town that day.

        • Gabby 1.4.2.2
          13 February 2020 at 10:42 pm

          Must be about time for some more natcrony led public service funkups to embarrass ministers.

    • Robert Guyton 1.5
      13 February 2020 at 6:51 pm

      Awesome! Like James, I'm totally convinced of success for the Tories!

      Break out the G&T's!

    • ScottGN 1.6
      13 February 2020 at 7:01 pm

      Looking at the trend over the last 3 Colmar-Bruntons, Labour is rising (albeit slowly) and National are dropping by the same amount. Also CB has been off a bit as far as the rest of the polling goes.
      Ardern’s personal numbers have rebounded in this poll too, she’s up 6% so that augurs well

      Maori Party is 0.2% away from having 2 MPs if they win an electorate. Given that they have said they’re most likely to support Labour in the next parliament is might well be in Labour’s interest forthem them to win one of the Maori seats back. That could change everything.

  2. Peter 2
    13 February 2020 at 6:30 pm

    America shows the way. They have a simpleton. We usually follow them. Simon's a shoe in.

    • Anne 2.1
      13 February 2020 at 6:39 pm

      err… a shoo in? Of course you might mean… a shoe in the door. Only a shoe mate? The rest of the body's got to squeeze through too. Ahhh… I somehow suspect that's too tall an order… even in bare feet. 😉

    • alwyn 2.2
      13 February 2020 at 11:02 pm

      We are a bit quicker than that Peter. It took us just under a year to follow them wouldn't you say?

      They had an election in 2016 and elected Trump. We had an election in 2017 didn't we? That was just under a year for us to follow their example.

  3. James 3
    13 February 2020 at 6:56 pm

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12308449

    Winny admits NZ First photographs journos investigating NZ first foundation which “somehow” end in on the new Whale blog beefdee (I assume the correct spelling will block).

    that’s not a good look at all.

    • james 3.1
      13 February 2020 at 7:11 pm

      Will be very interesting to see what Jacinda says about this.

      The Deputy Prime Minister in her government taking photographs of jurno's and sending them to a website linked with Dirty politics.

      Im guessing she will just say its a matter for NZ first. No leadership at all.

      Does anybody on here think that this was a good move by Winston?

      • McFlock 3.1.1
        13 February 2020 at 7:17 pm

        She ain't the NZ1 leader.

        But nah, a pretty stupid and petty move, IMO. It looks to me like someone's having a paranoid meltdown, maybe Winston or maybe a senior NZ1 person/collective decision.

        • james 3.1.1.1
          13 February 2020 at 7:29 pm

          No – She is not the NZ1 leader. But he IS the Deputy PM in her government.

          He admits that "we" took the photographs. He never said "we" was NZ1st – for all we know it could be the government.

          (although I assume it is NZ1).

          Still – this is not acceptable from the Deputy PM – and he cannot take that hat off on this one. no matter how hard he tries.

          • ianmac 3.1.1.1.1
            13 February 2020 at 7:44 pm

            Wasn't the photo more about the bloke who was talking to the journalists?

            People take photos of people on the street all the time.

            Look at any newspaper and there will be passers by featuring every day. So what?

            • Pete George 3.1.1.1.1.1
              13 February 2020 at 7:50 pm

              The photos were used on Dirty Politics 2.00 to attack the journalists and an ex party official as part of an ongoing campaign to defend Peters and NZ First and dump on anyone seen as opponents or critics or whistleblowers.

              It looks very bad for any MP let alone the Deputy Prime Minister to be associated with anything like this. And by association this also raises risks for coalition partners Labour and the Greens, especially if they do or say nothing top condemn this sort of dirt mongering.

            • McFlock 3.1.1.1.1.2
              13 February 2020 at 8:47 pm

              The issue for me isn't so much the photos – fair call for a leak investigation to link former associate with the journos running the story.

              but using someone like Slater to run the pics instead of owning them outright? And a coincidental run of stories to deflect from bad news/possible corruption? Pretty slimy slithering, IMO.

              Not a government-breaker. But it makes things less chummy.

              • Pete George …
                13 February 2020 at 8:56 pm

                I don't think it's been Slater who has been driving the pro-NZ First agenda at BFD. he was dumb enough to allow himself to be used by various people in the past, but he seems to have been largely sidelined. The investigation should be looking into who has financial and political links with both NZ First and BFD.

                • McFlock …
                  13 February 2020 at 9:06 pm

                  Investigation?

                  Meh. Not much to look at, really. Looks, quacks, and smells like pay for play. Might be a long bow to hit anything illegal, though. Although it's not the nats in the line this time, so the cops will probably be more diligent in determining what crimes have likely occurred.

                • Sacha …
                  14 February 2020 at 8:31 am

                  Is that hunting chap 'coaching' their MPs now?

          • McFlock 3.1.1.1.2
            13 February 2020 at 7:46 pm

            lol how times change – now party leaders are always wearing their Cabinet hats, eh…

      • Incognito 3.1.2
        13 February 2020 at 9:33 pm

        Please show us your evidence that Winston Peters personally took those photos and sent them to WOII.

      • Gabby 3.1.3
        13 February 2020 at 10:45 pm

        Maybe she'll take a leaf out of surjongkyponyboy’s book jimbo.

    • Pete George 3.2
      13 February 2020 at 9:10 pm

      Moote on this from

      One News: 'No interest' – Winston Peters backtracks on photos taken of journalists investigating NZ First Foundation

      During an interview with Magic Talk Radio this week, Mr Peters discussed the photographs.

      When it was raised to him, he responded: "We took the photograph just to prove that that's the kind of behaviour going on."

      But tonight, after the RNZ story was published online, Mr Peters distanced the party from the photographs.

      "In response to media inquiries, I can confirm that NZF has no interest in following Guyon Espiner or any other journalists. In fact, the very reverse applies," he told 1 NEWS.

      "No private investigators have been engaged to follow Mr Espiner or anyone else.

      "A supporter did think it odd when they saw ex-president Lester Grey with Mr Espiner so took a photo. Simple as that."

      But it isn't that simple. There was also a video taken. And then the "supporter" seems to have passed the photos and video on through the party ending up at The BFD in a dirty politics style post.

    • David Mac 4.1
      13 February 2020 at 8:58 pm

      I'm a firm advocate for giving women what they're asking for.

      I can't recall the last time I was disappointed in doing so.

      Someone looking for a fair go isn't looking to take advantage of anyone, they're just looking for a fair go.

    • Cinny 4.2
      13 February 2020 at 9:05 pm

      Wow!!!! Dang! Is he OK? Crikey, Murica.

    • McFlock 4.3
      13 February 2020 at 9:18 pm

      [headdesk]

      Another Republican representative for the state of Gilead.

  5. RedLogix 5
    13 February 2020 at 8:11 pm

    Latest from Peter Zeihan:



    • David Mac 6.1
      13 February 2020 at 9:16 pm

      If that's the going rate I guess that's what the tax payers of Waikato need to stump up for his enlightened guidance. If he is an inspirational boss that ignites projects, I can see the value.

      In my experience, power-house inspirational leadership isn't punching clock at the council chambers. In those halls it's politics, micro politics, relationships, politics, gossip, politics and then 'Getting stuff done.'

  7. Cinny 7
    13 February 2020 at 9:09 pm

    I wonder why simon has allowed gang violence to esculate in Tauranga for so long…. have also been wondering if mikehosking has a passport.

    • David Mac 7.1
      13 February 2020 at 9:38 pm

      Hosking spitting on Auckland today. The city that has enabled him to be the Mike Hosking.

      I like him, wish he was my mate, I'd razz him like there was no tomorrow.

      "Lets warm up your Ferrari and go and run-down poor people Mickey?"…."How much do you reckon I could get for that pic on my phone of you snorting?"

      I think Mike is alright, he chases a false God, I think he will evolve and come to see what's important. Give up his trappings as the tat it is and embrace divine contentment. Feeling great has little to do with $.

  8. Herodotus 8
    13 February 2020 at 9:33 pm

    Where do these senior ministry officials come from and with what skills do they posses – Common sense is not one of them !!!, if our Min of Ed does not get involved then he deserves to go, as any inaction by him is support to such a MAD decision.

    "Some families living across the road from their local primary school at Hobsonville Point in Auckland will be shut out under a proposed zoning change."

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12308297

  9. joe90 9
    13 February 2020 at 9:33 pm

    I hope Ms. Bitecofer is right.

    https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1145636460684566529

    What if everything you think you know about politics is wrong? What if there aren’t really American swing voters—or not enough, anyway, to pick the next president? What if it doesn’t matter much who the Democratic nominee is? What if there is no such thing as “the center,” and the party in power can govern however it wants for two years, because the results of that first midterm are going to be bad regardless? What if the Democrats' big 41-seat midterm victory in 2018 didn’t happen because candidates focused on health care and kitchen-table issues, but simply because they were running against the party in the White House? What if the outcome in 2020 is pretty much foreordained, too?

    To the political scientist Rachel Bitecofer, all of that is almost certainly true, and that has made her one of the most intriguing new figures in political forecasting this year.

    […]

    The classic view is that the pool of American voters is basically fixed: About 55 percent of eligible voters are likely to go to the polls, and the winner is determined by the 15 percent or so of “swing voters” who flit between the parties. So a general election campaign amounts to a long effort to pull those voters in to your side.

    Bitecofer has a nickname for this view. She calls it, with disdain, the “Chuck Todd theory of American politics”: “The idea that there is this informed, engaged American population that is watching these political events and watching their elected leaders and assessing their behavior and making a judgment.”

    “And it is just not true.”

    […]

    In 2016, the pollsters had the race largely wrong, but the academic forecasters got it mostly right, even though many ended up doubting their formulas after they spat out a likely victory for Trump, since such an outcome seemed impossible.

    But even the more academic forecasts, like the polling models, are based on longstanding assumptions about why and how candidates win elections. And sometimes an event occurs that blows up those assumptions.

    In Bitecofer’s experience, that event wasn’t Trump; it was the Tea Party. She was still a graduate student in 2010 when a wave of conservative populism returned the Republicans to power in the House. According to any conventional theory of politics, that wave made no sense. Two years prior the GOP had run the economy into the ground; under a Democratic president and a fully Democratic Congress, the economy had stopped its slide and begun to recover. How could the Democrats lose 63 seats in a brutal shellacking two years after totally routing the Republicans?

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

  10. joe90 10
    13 February 2020 at 10:00 pm

    Halberg Sportsman of the Year Israel Adesanya!

    If they win, we win. If I win, you win. Understand that.

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/sport/other/mma-fighter-israel-adesanya-awarded-sportsman-year-halberg-awards

    • David Mac 10.1
      13 February 2020 at 10:19 pm

      If we lived in some countries Clarke Gayford would be the Halberg Sportsman of the Year.

      Israel is fabulous, I dig him lots, but…cage fighting?

      I think the Halberg should go to an ambassador, someone that can tour schools etc. A shining Silver Fern would be good.

      • joe90 10.1.1
        13 February 2020 at 10:45 pm

        In the eye of the beholder, I guess, but I'd rather chopped up faces and crooked snouts than catastrophic lower limb injuries.

    • Cinny 10.2
      14 February 2020 at 8:09 am

      What a speech! Good on him.

  11. Peter 11
    13 February 2020 at 10:06 pm

    Colmar Brunton poll:

    Refused to answer (3%) undecided (13%) = 16%

    No idea if that's historically significant but surely it is significant.

    • ianmac 11.1
      13 February 2020 at 11:13 pm

      Well that would be 160 voters in your group out of 1,000 polled. Yes significant proportion I reckon Peter. But what does it mean? Dunno.

    • Adrian 11.2
      14 February 2020 at 7:32 am

      Refused to answer is bullshit, thats just not giving an A, B or Undecided', its still an answer.

      Now hanging up is another thing altogether, in Britain it was apparently in the 80 percentile according to a UK pollster I heard on Nat Rad last year.

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