Luxon Aeterna

Written By: - Date published: 8:02 am, June 16th, 2023 - 48 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, covid-19, Economy, health, law and "order", national, politicans - Tags:

I have met the enemy, and he is charmingly mild.

In a 0 centigrade night the Wanaka town hall was so full that they moved us all from a 60-seater to 200 seater auditorium with all the speed of a fire evacuation in a retirement village. They were 70+ average, all chopped bobs and tweeds and 100% whiter than Eastbourne, modern European SUV’s in the carparks, most within range of the Greens’ $4m wealth tax I’d venture.

If you ever went to a John Key post-budget briefing in his first term, he had a no-notes, wander-across-stage Tony Robins charisma that was hard to beat for the suit-set. Luxon attempts that schtick, with a wilful non-parliamentary naivety.

Luxon surprisingly uses almost no campaign rhetoric, no jokes, no cheap shots. No suit or tie; it was jersey over shirt. An effort not to smell political.

He started with standard anodyne bromides about New Zealand being a perfectly placed country that can achieve anything it wants, but is held back by a government taking it in the wrong direction. No repeats of the “wet snivelling lot” line tonight.

His three themes are Law and Order, One People, and the Economy.

He certainly mentions how much more the Labour government is spending on things like health, but never mentioned COVID once. Insofar as he mentions past Labour spending, it’s framed as waste.

When directly asked by Wanaka part time resident Ruth Richardson what his plan for the first 100 days in office, he made mumbly noises about holding public service chief executives to account, but otherwise simply didn’t have a plan at all. This was weird for a senior exec who had run plenty of turnaround plans before.

The one point of applause he got was for bonding health professionals to stay here for several years. He has very specific targets about educational attainment to get New Zealand reading and writing and mathematics standards back to what they were by specific years, and similarly specific targets for the public health system in terms of treatments, timing of specialist care plans, and vaccinations.

None of that registered with that audience.

Not unreasonably he plays hard on the rise in gun crime and gang member increases.

Unfortunately there is functionally no crime in Wanaka other than a bit of recreational meth for the skiers and tradies, so that didn’t connect either much.

No jokes, no jabs, no acknowledgement that he’s in the National Party. He has zero of the rhetorical punch you’d get from Winston Peters of the 2000s or that Jacinda Ardern could muster with a script and a decent runup. Someone get him a speechwriter with some heft.

He is particularly keen on his experience as a retail group manager bringing in stronger anti-cartel regulators that he saw in the United Kingdom and elsewhere.

But he has so little political experience you can’t sense whether he could get a bill or a budget through. He  has no muscle.

He is similar to Key in that in policy terms he is a mile wide and an inch thick.

I was very surprised for a Wanaka audience he had that he didn’t go straight to defending family trusts, defending more specific tax cuts, and defending housing equity from capital gains taxes. He didn’t mention retirement savings or public spending on retirements either in subsidy or in NZ Super.

If he had done his research on Wanaka he would have recognised how few in that audience were voting Labour or Green, how rich on average they were and hence how wealth-controlling, how much in short he was in white haute-bourgeoisie heaven. Key had that depth of audience research, that ability to pick the cues and pitch back to them.

The audience wanted to be more charmed than they actually were. Which was weird after Labour’s month showing all signs of just coming apart.

Wanaka being a gated community without the gates, he knocked but despite those who came to see him, the crowd didn’t let him in. The Waitaki electorate went Party vote Labour last time with Labour on 43.8% and National 31.6% and it’s hard to see anything but a complete reversal. Wanaka will vote National irrespective.

In evangelical terms he missed the appeal to the crowd to come to the front and repent. That’s because unfortunately Wanaka people believe they’ve already got to heaven.

48 comments on “Luxon Aeterna ”

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  1. Sanctuary 1
    16 June 2023 at 8:18 am

    The meta of all this is this election really is shaping up as a gunfight between fading boomers making one last attempt to keep NZ the way they made it and new forces welling up in the electorate.

    Given the economic circumstances, a victory for a Labour led coalition would surely signal the shattering of the boomer generations stranglehood on power that they've held for the last forty years. Even a narrow National/ACT victory, if accompanied by the sort of desperate attempts to shore up the bulwarks of boomer power that ACT wants, would simply push the country toward another Springbok tour level generational crisis.

    • Phillip ure 1.1
      16 June 2023 at 9:10 am

      Fully agree with the prediction of springbok level disruption should ac-nat win..

      It'll be gloves off on matters environmental… especially..

      At least with grn-lab there is hope of some attention to this critical imperative..

      With ac-nat..not so much..

      So with no hope there…should they win…buckle up… it's gonna be a rough ride..

      Those concerned about climate change will have no other pathways.

      Direct action will be the only option..

      • Tiger Mountain 1.1.1
        16 June 2023 at 10:50 am

        Exactly, new gens need to find their mojo alright, but not in the way Luxo means.
        Generations rent and student loan have the numbers now, and hopefully the political organisation by 2026–and enough turnout on October 14 to keep Baldrick and Seymour well away from office.

        Direct Action, community organising, turning from 39 years of “me–me–me” to a more collective Aotearoa NZ…TPM and Greens are doing some good work in that respect, and Jacinda Ardern’s legacy Matariki public holiday will resonate down the years.

  2. Dennis Frank 2
    16 June 2023 at 8:34 am

    When directly asked by Wanaka part time resident Ruth Richardson what his plan for the first 100 days in office, he made mumbly noises about holding public service chief executives to account, but otherwise simply didn’t have a plan at all. This was weird for a senior exec who had run plenty of turnaround plans before.

    The idea that public servants have chief executives seems novel. I wonder if any of them know that. Is it true, or merely his speculative hypothesis? I'm open too the possibility – perhaps someone will front up with proof of how the top dudes & dudesses execute stuff.

    The no-plan approach to life is pragmatic – just respond to situations instinctively as they happen to you. Can't fault that in him, but I bet RR did. She'd be looking for evidence that he knows what he's doing. Does any improviser know what they're doing? Of course not! Biology rules reasoning all the time.

    However I do sympathise with RR in her tacit assumption that action plans are real cool things to have, especially for a PM – her desire to discover if he is actually cool enough to have such a plan must have been unsatisfied. She ought to tell him what to do. Lux seems the kinda guy who would relish obeying orders, like a spaniel.

    • Cheryl McLeod 2.1
      18 June 2023 at 12:38 pm

      Spot on! No plans, no Policies, not much to anything, really.

      Just lots of blithering and insulting all NZers with his wet whiny, whinging comments about how insular we all are- NOT wise comments from a political wannabe.. not the sort of comments we relish from a "potential " PM! Heaven help us!

  3. Bearded Git 3
    16 June 2023 at 8:38 am

    It was a choice between going to watch Luxon or quiz night at the Albert Town pub for me. We came second in the quiz.

    I disagree that Labour is "coming apart". They made a couple of minor administrative errors in parliament that the opposition has exploited ruthlessly with the help of the MSM.

    The economy has been hit hard by Covid, then by the inflation inducing Ukraine war, then by the cyclone. Any government would be up against it in these circumstances, yet the economy is basically flat, unemployment is low, government borrowing is low and the current account deficit is starting to improve as tourists flock in again, exports are improving and immigration rockets.

    As I said last week, the government needs to stress that, according to the World Bank, NZ is the easiest place in the world to do business in.

    Luxon is pretty useless-I would be more worried if Willis was in charge. But the Left has a good chance in October while Luxon is there, and if climate change votes flow to the Greens.

    • Ad 3.1
      16 June 2023 at 9:06 am

      BG we should find a way to connect.

      • Bearded Git 3.1.1
        16 June 2023 at 11:20 am

        I like my Hermit Kingdom status Ad, but we will probably work out who each other is at some stage and happy to share a beer at that point.

      • Phillip ure 3.1.2
        17 June 2023 at 6:05 pm

        Ad.. could your first line read..'mildly charming'..?

        • Phillip ure 3.1.2.1
          18 June 2023 at 9:06 am

          I'm a bit disturbed to hear that luxon owns/rides a piaggio scooter..(piaggio are the vespa house-brand..)

          That's'cos I too ride a 'p' (as the scooting-cognoscenti call them)..

          And am now grappling with the question of do I have to invite him to join the riders club..?..called (obviously) 'the flying p's'. .

          Tagline: 'born to be mild'..

          • higherstandard 3.1.2.1.1
            18 June 2023 at 10:11 am

            Tagline: 'born to be mild'..

            Oh that is very good Phil.

            Are the Vespas more easily accessible/cheaper than they used to be in NZ ?

            • Phillip ure 3.1.2.1.1.1
              18 June 2023 at 10:36 am

              I see piaggio more than vespa..

              Vespa still expensive..but beautiful..

              The Lexus of scooters..

              And I do have vespa envy..

              But seriously…I learnt from a review that the piaggio is essentially a rebadged vespa .

              The base model..but vespa nonetheless…

    • alwyn 3.2
      16 June 2023 at 10:50 am

      As you also pointed out it wasn't that "according to the World Bank, NZ is the easiest place in the world to do business in." it was really that the World Bank said that back in 2019 we were pretty easy to do Business in and that the survey became so discredited that they stopped publishing it.

  4. dv 4
    16 June 2023 at 8:38 am

    Was that the nat Ruth Richardson?

  5. tsmithfield 5
    16 June 2023 at 8:48 am

    A fair, balanced aritcle, Ad.

    I wouldn't knock the 70 year olds though. They are very diligent in getting out to vote. So, definitely a demographic worth persuing.

    • Muttonbird 5.1
      16 June 2023 at 9:51 am

      It highlights the philosophy of the National Party.

      Backward-looking, not forward looking. Reactionary instead of progressive. Pessimistic, not optimistic. Fortifying existing wealth, reserving it for direct descendants, rather than investing in all.

      To pursue that vote is pure Key political cynicism.

      • LibertyBelle 5.1.1
        16 June 2023 at 10:43 pm

        Or perhaps the 70 somethings are worldly wise. They have learned the danger of excessive debt and poor quality spending. They are less idealistic and more interested in actual outcomes. Many have fought for social change, protested against the excesses of both imperialism and totalitarianism. Overall, the 70 somethings I rub shoulders with have earned the respect I afford them.

        • Muttonbird 5.1.1.1
          16 June 2023 at 10:50 pm

          You completely argued against yourself there. 70+ are worldly wise having given up their earlier fight for social change?

          Breathtaking ego in your last sentence. Not surprised.

          • LibertyBelle 5.1.1.1.1
            17 June 2023 at 3:03 am

            Where did I say they had given up?

            Breathtaking ignorance in your part not to understand what they have contributed.

  6. pat 6
    16 June 2023 at 9:14 am

    An opportunity to see in the flesh the figurehead that may result from a vote for Act.

  7. Muttonbird 7
    16 June 2023 at 9:52 am

    Right hand with the mic, left hand in pocket, am I right?

  8. Anne 8
    16 June 2023 at 10:52 am

    "No jokes, no jabs, no acknowledgement that he’s in the National Party."

    That's because he's been told to steer clear of them. His ability to joke, jab have thus far failed. He has to spend ensuing weeks walking back on them or clarifying which one he was indulging in. He also does not seem to be well versed in reading audiences and it often comes across as though someone has primed him in advance what he has to say.

    If he does make it to the top job I suspect it will become apparent he's not up it and we will see a leadership spill well in advance of the 2026 election.

  9. Kat 9
    16 June 2023 at 12:35 pm

    "He never mentioned COVID once…."

    Most likely his deputy reminded him that if you mention and repeat something often enough such as "wasteful spending" more people will start to believe it, so not mentioning COVID will have a similar effect but in reverse.

    By completely ignoring COVID the blame for high inflation, cost of living and other socio-economic crises can all be blamed on the Labour govt.

    Red meets Blue in Christchurch this evening………. I read its a “grudge” match….

  10. weka 10
    16 June 2023 at 1:20 pm

    beautifully written post Ad, nice one.

  11. DS 11
    16 June 2023 at 4:20 pm

    If he had done his research on Wanaka he would have recognised how few in that audience were voting Labour or Green, how rich on average they were and hence how wealth-controlling, how much in short he was in white haute-bourgeoisie heaven

    Wanaka's indeed very posh. Which, apart from the preponderance of Nats, also means it's rather more sympathetic to the Greens than you would generally see in the Waitaki electorate. Poor people do not vote Green.

    • bwaghorn 11.1
      16 June 2023 at 4:33 pm

      Poor people do not vote Green.

      Why?

    • Dennis Frank 11.2
      16 June 2023 at 4:34 pm

      The impression I get is that poor people don't vote – due to a lack of civic consciousness (or whatever the latest academic framing is). Democracy is, at best, a marginal part of their collective world. Their lack of class consciousness is an ongoing marvel. Karl Marx probably gave up on spinning in his grave – after getting it so wrong – ascended to the astral plane & took off for a better world instead.

      Dunno if kiwi social scientists have measured the extent of alienation from politics on a class basis but here's a glimpse into the UK from a decade back: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/16/poverty-election-vote-apathy

      At the 2010 general election, there was a gaping 23 percentage points gap between the turnout of the richest and poorest income groups. Why? Because those living in poverty who choose not to vote often feel completely excluded and disconnected from the political process.

      Over the past six years, I have done academic research with a small group of individuals in Leeds directly affected by welfare reform. Most of those I spoke to did not vote. Sam, a young jobseeker when we first met, explained why: “Whoever I vote for, the country’s going to the dogs anyway so I don’t bother”, she said. I heard politicians spoken about with contempt, words dripping with anger and mistrust. They were vehemently criticised for their readiness to talk as experts on welfare and poverty: areas on which they in fact appeared to know little.

      So the poor are as alienated from the political left as they are from the political right. We can surmise why this is so. Track record. Performance vs rhetoric, etc.

      • Shanreagh 11.2.1
        16 June 2023 at 5:29 pm

        “Whoever I vote for, the country’s going to the dogs anyway so I don’t bother”, she said. I heard politicians spoken about with contempt, words dripping with anger and mistrust. They were vehemently criticised for their readiness to talk as experts on welfare and poverty: areas on which they in fact appeared to know little.

        Very interesting DF.

        What I have heard, and surprisingly, or not, from the 1970s former activist crowd is really a paraphrase of

        Whoever I vote for, the country’s going to the dogs nothing's going to change anyway so I don’t bother”

        The Woodstock idea of being able to chnage the word has well and truly been beaten out of them by the reality of life.

        Many were damaged by the neo lib restructurings which were not voted on/in as far as Labour was concerned. Then carried on by the Nats, for whom this anti worker/people approach was more predictable.

        The parties seem clustered around the centre with little really between them, policy-wise, yet. I think many who were around with the unvoted for neolib stuff saw a parallel with the unvoted for self ID that apparently was one of the Greens bottom lines for a coalition or Confidence.

        We need some how to get the idea back that every vote counts, that is is worth it perhaps not immediately but for children or grandchildren. I actually don't think it matters if people vote for this or that party……the exercise is of democracy that manyof our forefathers/mothers have died to protect.

        Classes in Civics/how govts work etc etc seems a low key but useful start. smiley

        • Dennis Frank 11.2.1.1
          16 June 2023 at 6:19 pm

          My hunch is that a new type of mass psychology is required. I agree re education in how democracy works as a system ought to be taught to youngsters, but a network effect is required to scale up solidarity and make it politically effective.

          You're right that established parties market themselves to the center rather than the margins. Understandable since that's where the numbers lie (bell curve).

          Sharing common motivations is difficult in our individualistic culture, so organising to make it happen can only come from serious altruism combined with commitment to spend time & money pulling together folk often dismissed as losers into a mass movement…

          • tWiggle 11.2.1.1.1
            16 June 2023 at 9:08 pm

            There's the lower the voting age to 16, which increased turnout in the following election in Scotland (this is a download doc).

            '[Lowering the voting age to 16] has maintained a boost in electoral engagement among first-time voters enfranchised at 16 or 17. Seven years after the initial lowering of the voting age in Scotland, we observe that young people who benefited from the lowering of the voting age to 16 in Scotland were more likely to turn out to vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections than young people who were first eligible to vote in an election aged 18 or older.'

      • Belladonna 11.2.2
        16 June 2023 at 6:58 pm

        That doesn't seem to be the whole explanation, however.

        Setting aside the undisputed fact that poor people vote less than more wealthy ones.

        Relatively 'wealthy' electorates have a much higher percentage of Green voters, than relatively poor ones.

        Compare Wellington Central (30% Green party vote in 2020) and Hutt South (9% GP party vote in 2020)

        Or Epsom (heart of ACT territory) – 10% Green party vote in 2020; with Manurewa – 3% GPV in 2020.

        It seems that those poor people who vote, disproportionately, don't vote Green.

        • Dennis Frank 11.2.2.1
          16 June 2023 at 7:56 pm

          So now the Greens are experimenting with a scheme designed to help the poor. The nature of the experiment is a gamble: will the poor respond to the scheme by actually voting for it?

          The Greens appear to believe that they will. I suspect they won't. If I'm wrong, the polls will show an upward trend in those intending to vote Green, right?

          So the space to watch in the next few months is any discernible trend upward in the prospective Green vote. Will the Greens simply have faith in the judgment of the poor or will they undertake a massive marketing campaign to connect with that segment of the electorate? If they do the latter, they'll get credit for the attempt, even if not for the eventual (non)result that I'm anticipating.

  12. observer 12
    16 June 2023 at 4:43 pm

    Thanks for the match report.

    Perhaps Luxon, or his advisers, have finally worked out what every savvy politician knows – there are two audiences, one in the hall (hundreds) and one outside (millions). The pandering and the 1950s golf club jokes might get a round of applause inside, but they only generate bad headlines, and yet more awkward "clarification" afterwards.

    Unfortunately for Luxon, in an election campaign the audience is always those outside millions.

    • Mac1 13.1
      16 June 2023 at 10:00 pm

      This is where Ad gets to show off his classical education and says, "Ad sum. Adsum." 🙂

    • Sanctuary 13.2
      16 June 2023 at 10:27 pm

      He is up the back, between Peter Williams and Ruth Richardson.

      • Anne 13.2.1
        16 June 2023 at 11:01 pm

        Ooh I got him yeah. That's Preb just in front of him isn't it?

        Still. Very interesting post from Ad.

    • joe90 13.3
      17 June 2023 at 3:46 am

      lol

      shaun
      @slow_tri_guy
      ·
      12h
      Starting to understand why he thinks the country is whiney and inward looking.

    • ianmac 13.4
      17 June 2023 at 9:59 am

      By my count there are about 150 people in the hall.

      The white-coated lady in the near front seat has gone to sleep for some reason.

      What a great post Ad. Invigorating.

      • Anne 13.4.1
        17 June 2023 at 10:33 am

        They don't exactly look hyped up and invigorated do they.

        I’ve just watched Matthew Hooton on The Nation. To the politically uninitiated he appears to be even handed, doling out bricks and bouquets to political parties. But in reality he’s kicking the centre left parties in the rear. He does it with snide remarks dropped in – seemingly by accident – such as his degrading of Jacinda Ardern (almost spitting on camera with hate) and her ‘kindness’ approach.

        He’s a piece of s**t.

        • Patricia Bremner 13.4.1.1
          17 June 2023 at 8:46 pm

          Before Labour and Jacinda were elected Hooten was on the radio with Kathryn Ryan. He was almost screaming with rage, and Kathryn had to shut him down. He sounded unhinged.

          He has not returned since, but at that stage he was supposed to be even handed, like Boag and Trotter lol. We know now those "Panels" are put together like a clap board house.

          I agree Anne.

  14. Patricia Bremner 14
    17 June 2023 at 9:52 am

    "I have met the enemy and he is charmingly mild."

    Perhaps you need to study photos of Luxon's expressions when faced by situations and people he wishes to defeat. Far from charmingly mild.

    He was "with his own" at that meeting, so quite relaxed.

    To underestimate the threat of what his view of this country represent, would be dire.

    He avoids admitting some of Act's Policy would be tacked on to National Policy through a Coalition arrangement. Mild and charming outcomes are unlikely.

    • Phillip ure 14.1
      18 June 2023 at 7:00 pm

      He wasn't so mild and charming when jack tame grilled him on the conflicts of interest around the seven properties that he owns…and national party policies that fill landlords pockets…

      He was more grim and sour on that occasion… practicing his rictus grin..