Narratives out of noise

• Anthony R0bins
• 7 years ago
• Categories: election 2017, polls
• Tags: election 2017, narrative, noise, polls

Another poll:

The Maori Party is up to 2 per cent, and Gareth Morgan’s Opportunities Party is steady on 1 per cent.

Act and United Future don’t feature.

PARTY VOTE

National 47 per cent (down 2)

Labour 27 (down 3)

Greens 11 (up 2)

NZ First 11 (up 2)

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Bill English 26 per cent (down 3)

Winston Peters 11 per cent (up 4)

Jacinda Ardern 6 per cent (steady)

Andrew Little 5 per cent (down 3)

One could focus on Labour’s fall, or National’s, or the Green’s rise, or NZF holding the balance. On preferred PM one could focus on Little’s fall, English’s fall, Labour’s combined leadership team, and so on. But all of these are narratives out of noise.

The poll of 1007 eligible voters was conducted July 1 – 5. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent. Party vote undecideds stood at 19 per cent (up 2).

Possibly the only significant change is the rise of Winston Peters, as usual in election year. Having said that, obviously the polls are nowhere near where the Left would like them to be. We have our work cut out for us. How do we win over those undecided voters?