Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, October 14th, 2019 - 119 comments
The October TV One/Colmar Brunton poll is out. Like yesterday’s devastating TV3 poll result showing National not waving, but drowning, today’s poll confirms that NZ is still heading toward an historic Labour/Green Government, despite the Tories flirting with numbers in the high fifties.
UPDATE: Some weirdness with the numbers: they add up to 101% and 47% does not actually give National 60 seats, so the ‘Poll Says National Can Govern’ headlines are a wee bit optimistic. TRP.
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments
In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.
Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 15th, 2017 - 56 comments
Labour’s surge under Jacinda Ardern has us all talking about Labour vs National – who’s in front. Exciting stuff, but there is something even more important going on. The mood represented by Labour + Green + the plurality of NZF supporters. The winds of change are blowing.
Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, August 20th, 2017 - 58 comments
Labour rising, National falling in the latest poll. Greens steady at 8%. Jacinda Ardern buries Bill English in the “favourability” rating. Will Labour overtake Nats before the election?
Update: Live Labour launch video.
Written By: - Date published: 9:12 am, August 18th, 2017 - 87 comments
What Jacinda Ardern has accomplished here is nothing short of astonishing. As a one-off bump in the polls it rivals Brash’s infamous Orewa speech. But Ardern’s rise is based on optimism and positivity rather than racist dog whistles.
Written By: - Date published: 7:05 pm, August 9th, 2017 - 94 comments
Two polls out tonight show a big surge for Labour and Jacinda Ardern. But we need a strong Green vote too. To those whom Metiria inspired – please don’t give up on voting. The Greens need you now more than ever!
Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, July 31st, 2017 - 157 comments
To what must be intense annoyance from angry right-wing pundits, Metiria Turei’s gamble seems to have paid off for The Greens, an indication (though mind that margin of error) that there could be a real appetite for a Corbyn-style political revolution this election.
Written By: - Date published: 7:26 am, July 12th, 2017 - 141 comments
Toby Manhire on The Spinoff has an interesting analysis of the recent Colmar Brunton poll. Comapred to the same poll in 2014 National are 5% down, with the Labour/Green alliance unchanged. The fall in the preferred PM rating from Key to English is huge. The Nats are highly vulnerable.
Written By: - Date published: 12:40 pm, April 23rd, 2017 - 17 comments
If politicians are meant to represent people, then shouldn’t they explore ways to ensure that the people they represent get represented in government?
Written By: - Date published: 10:08 am, February 26th, 2017 - 24 comments
Written By: - Date published: 6:50 pm, August 8th, 2016 - 113 comments
The latest Reid Research poll is grim reading for the Nats. Labour and the Greens are closing fast.
Written By: - Date published: 3:10 pm, May 25th, 2016 - 46 comments
Written By: - Date published: 10:45 am, March 16th, 2016 - 19 comments
A new poll has Labour tied with the Tories for the first time since Corbyn became leader.
Written By: - Date published: 6:51 pm, November 22nd, 2015 - 28 comments
The latest Reid Research/3News poll is out. Key gets nothing from the RWC, and the rapist remarks turn out not to have helped his popularity either. There was a time when talkback radio style outbursts used to make him look strong. Nowadays, not so much. Meanwhile, the opposition are just 1 seat behind …
Written By: - Date published: 11:34 am, October 1st, 2015 - 1 comment
Nice interactive political polling data visualisation here (consider making a donation!).
Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, August 26th, 2015 - 89 comments
Another data point from the poll mill.
Written By: - Date published: 6:55 pm, July 26th, 2015 - 109 comments
The latest 3News/Reid Research poll continues the trend of bad results for National. On these numbers, National are knackered. And, surprise, surprise, Kiwis don’t want non-residents buying up our houses. Not a great way to finish a conference weekend, is it?
Written By: - Date published: 6:10 pm, July 19th, 2015 - 119 comments
The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll is out. National drop one to 47%, Labour gain that point to lift to 32% , the Greens rise to 13% and NZ First are steady on 7 %. Consumer confidence plummets 9% points to just 36%.
Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, June 2nd, 2015 - 53 comments
I’ll cautiously call the previous Roy Morgan, which caused so much angst, an outlier.