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Posts Tagged ‘polls’

The UK General Election

Written By: - Date published: 8:07 am, November 4th, 2019 - 10 comments

 

Nick Kelly is a form NZ trade unionist and NZ Labour activist. He is a co director of Piko Consulting, and currently lives in London expanding Piko into the UK. The below was originally published on Nick Kelly’s blog

 

 

One News Colmar Brunton Poll Oct 2019

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, October 14th, 2019 - 121 comments

The October TV One/Colmar Brunton poll is out. Like yesterday’s devastating TV3 poll result showing National not waving, but drowning, today’s poll confirms that NZ is still heading toward an historic Labour/Green Government, despite the Tories flirting with numbers in the high fifties.

UPDATE: Some weirdness with the numbers: they add up to 101% and 47% does not actually give National 60 seats, so the ‘Poll Says National Can Govern’ headlines are a wee bit optimistic.  TRP.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, October 23rd

Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments

In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.

Polls – focus on the horse race misses the huge mood for change

Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 15th, 2017 - 56 comments

Labour’s surge under Jacinda Ardern has us all talking about Labour vs National – who’s in front. Exciting stuff, but there is something even more important going on. The mood represented by Labour + Green + the plurality of NZF supporters. The winds of change are blowing.

Poll tonight

Written By: - Date published: 2:58 pm, September 12th, 2017 - 216 comments

“Dramatic and Devastating” according to Patrick Gower. Do you think he wants us to watch?

Labour closes gap to 3%

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, August 20th, 2017 - 58 comments

Labour rising, National falling in the latest poll. Greens steady at 8%. Jacinda Ardern buries Bill English in the “favourability” rating. Will Labour overtake Nats before the election?

Update: Live Labour launch video.

Labour’s momentum – Nat’s fall

Written By: - Date published: 9:12 am, August 18th, 2017 - 87 comments

What Jacinda Ardern has accomplished here is nothing short of astonishing. As a one-off bump in the polls it rivals Brash’s infamous Orewa speech. But Ardern’s rise is based on optimism and positivity rather than racist dog whistles.

Two good polls for Labour – and a call to arms for the Greens

Written By: - Date published: 7:05 pm, August 9th, 2017 - 94 comments

Two polls out tonight show a big surge for Labour and Jacinda Ardern. But we need a strong Green vote too. To those whom Metiria inspired – please don’t give up on voting. The Greens need you now more than ever!

Metiria’s gamble pays off in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, July 31st, 2017 - 157 comments

To what must be intense annoyance from angry right-wing pundits, Metiria Turei’s gamble seems to have paid off for The Greens, an indication (though mind that margin of error) that there could be a real appetite for a Corbyn-style political revolution this election.

Nats’ poll fall 2014 2017

Written By: - Date published: 7:26 am, July 12th, 2017 - 141 comments

Toby Manhire on The Spinoff has an interesting analysis of the recent Colmar Brunton poll. Comapred to the same poll in 2014 National are 5% down, with the Labour/Green alliance unchanged. The fall in the preferred PM rating from Key to English is huge. The Nats are highly vulnerable.

Narratives out of noise

Written By: - Date published: 7:13 am, July 11th, 2017 - 189 comments

Another poll, another round of narratives out of noise.

Dog’s Breakfast.

Written By: - Date published: 12:40 pm, April 23rd, 2017 - 17 comments

If politicians are meant to represent people, then shouldn’t they explore ways to ensure that the people they represent get represented in government?

RNZ poll of polls

Written By: - Date published: 10:46 am, March 31st, 2017 - 22 comments

RNZ: “Labour and the Green Party have closed the gap slightly on National in the latest Poll of Polls”.

A fan grieves Key’s popularity bubble

Written By: - Date published: 10:08 am, February 26th, 2017 - 24 comments

Today’s news, tomorrow’s fish and chip wrapper. Tracy Watkins grieves. Max Rashbrooke explains.

Roy Morgan August; Nat’s Down 7%

Written By: - Date published: 7:50 pm, August 29th, 2016 - 268 comments

The latest Roy Morgan is out. A solid 7% drop for National.

Newshub Poll: Key Stuffed

Written By: - Date published: 6:50 pm, August 8th, 2016 - 113 comments

The latest Reid Research poll is grim reading for the Nats. Labour and the Greens are closing fast.

The times they are a changing

Written By: - Date published: 3:51 pm, July 15th, 2016 - 84 comments

Dedicated to the latest UMR poll that Bomber reports has Labour on 33%, the Greens on 12% and National on 41% …

Newshub poll – Key’s government has failed on housing

Written By: - Date published: 3:10 pm, May 25th, 2016 - 46 comments

Quite apart from falling to his lowest level ever as preferred PM, the Newshub poll had more bad news for King John.

Newshub poll – Key falls to lowest popularity

Written By: - Date published: 3:13 pm, May 24th, 2016 - 146 comments

Latest Newshub poll shows little change in the party standings and Winston still kingmaker. It also shows that Key “plummets” to his lowest level ever.

UK poll puts Corbyn’s Labour tied with Tories

Written By: - Date published: 10:45 am, March 16th, 2016 - 19 comments

A new poll has Labour tied with the Tories for the first time since Corbyn became leader.

RWC and rapists: 3 News poll confirms a pretty average week for Key.

Written By: - Date published: 6:51 pm, November 22nd, 2015 - 28 comments

The latest Reid Research/3News poll is out. Key gets nothing from the RWC, and the rapist remarks turn out not to have helped his popularity either. There was a time when talkback radio style outbursts used to make him look strong. Nowadays, not so much. Meanwhile, the opposition are just 1 seat behind …

Poll geekery

Written By: - Date published: 11:34 am, October 1st, 2015 - 1 comment

Nice interactive political polling data visualisation here (consider making a donation!).

The Roy Morgan roundabout

Written By: - Date published: 7:26 am, September 19th, 2015 - 17 comments

The “Roy Morgan roundabout” poll has swung round to the left again, with National at 44.5% (down 6), Labour 31% (up 4) and Greens 15% (up 4).

Herald poll

Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, August 26th, 2015 - 89 comments

Another data point from the poll mill.

Internal polling apparently good

Written By: - Date published: 6:57 am, July 28th, 2015 - 233 comments

It’s not a good idea in general to comment on internal polling. But since they were discussed on other blogs yesterday – Labour’s current numbers are looking good.

20 years of preferred PM

Written By: - Date published: 12:12 pm, July 27th, 2015 - 68 comments

preferred-pm-1b

3News Poll: National Lose Lead

Written By: - Date published: 6:55 pm, July 26th, 2015 - 109 comments

The latest 3News/Reid Research poll continues the trend of bad results for National. On these numbers, National are knackered. And, surprise, surprise, Kiwis don’t want non-residents buying up our houses.  Not a great way to finish a conference weekend, is it?

TV One Colmar Brunton Poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:10 pm, July 19th, 2015 - 119 comments

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll is out. National drop one to 47%, Labour gain that point to lift to 32% , the Greens rise to 13% and NZ First are steady on 7 %. Consumer confidence plummets 9% points to just 36%.

Reid Research Poll: Nats, Key slump.

Written By: - Date published: 7:39 pm, June 2nd, 2015 - 98 comments

New Reid Research poll; National, Key tank. Opposition parties nudge 50%. Little, Peters rise in preferred PM.  Taxi for Mr Key?

Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, June 2nd, 2015 - 53 comments

I’ll cautiously call the previous Roy Morgan, which caused so much angst, an outlier.

Colmar poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 am, April 20th, 2015 - 141 comments

No significant changes in yesterdays TV1 / Colmar Brunton poll, with National unchanged on 49%, Labour unchanged on 31%, and all changes within the margin of error.

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