Originally published on Nick Kelly’s blog
On Saturday Labour lost of General Election in New Zealand.
Whilst there are special votes still to count, which make up roughly 20% of total votes cast in this election (including this author who voted from London), these will likely change the numbers in parliament but not the fact that there will be a change in Government.
After UK Labour lost in 2019, I wrote nine fairly lengthy posts about why they lost. For NZ Labour the reasons can be summed up in a paragraph. I wrote two blog posts just for the election, one addressing Labour’s response to the Housing Crisis and another regarding their response to the coronavirus pandemic. It became apparent writing both these that Labour’s chances of winning were slim.
On key policy areas like housing, but also education and transport Labour had over-promised in 2017 and underdelivered in Government. With the pandemic, unrealistic expectations were set, rather than properly preparing the public for community transmission post vaccinations, they locked down Auckland (the nation’s largest city) for weeks in 2021, only to have the inevitable community transmission throughout the country by early 2022.
In my post on historical trends and perspectives in NZ politics, I said that every time the National came to power since 1949, they have won a minimum of three terms. This is not inevitable for the incoming National Government. In part, this will be down to the performance of National, ACT and possibly NZ First in Government. It also will also come down to how well Labour perform in Opposition.
Immediately people will start speculating on the leadership. Yes, in politics leadership is critical. But the last thing Labour needs right now is a popularity contest amongst its remaining MPs, coupled with the weird parochialism that masquerades as factionalism in NZ Labour. Instead, Labour needs to grieve, try to understand and accept the loss, and then re-group and prepare to be the next government in 2016 (if not earlier).
NZ Herald reporter Simon Wilson made the following astute comment the day after the election:
One of the grat fallacies in politics is that there is a big middle ground of voters who like quiet moderation. Actually, voters want thing to be better. Those who swing from one party to another are not looking to reinforce the status quo. They have become disillusioned and want a shake-up
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/simon-wilson-the-labour-collapse-fit-for-the-war-but-not-for-the-peace/ETSGLL7JAVBAHAVZZOXRGD4YZ4/
Labour needs to plan for government. Instead of glib slogans about fairness or positivity, Labour needs a believable plan to make life better for the people who are doing it tough right now. This does not mean over-complicated policy proposals, or arbitrary targets on building new homes. It means a clear vision with priority policy areas that resonate with the voting public.
NZ Labour will not be in government anymore. But the Party and its MPs must quickly start looking like a Government in waiting. This means a front bench with a mix of experienced and new MPs. Decisions about the party leadership should be part of this, but it is only one part.
There will need to be a reaffirming of commitments with The Green Party and strengthening alliances with Te Pāti Māori to show what a progressive centre-left government will look like next time. This work should be starting now.
In parliamentary politics, there are no final victories. After losing the 2023 election, Labour must now immediately focus on winning in 2026.
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