Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments
In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments
The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?
Written By: - Date published: 6:15 am, December 20th, 2017 - 56 comments
“Further, his comments the following evening were confusing and insufficient to correct the inaccurate information for viewers.”
Written By: - Date published: 6:34 am, October 7th, 2017 - 35 comments
The right wing clobbering machine is already calling a possible Labour Green NZF a “coalition of losers”. Well under MMP a coalition of losers can be the winners. But however you cut it a coalition of liars will always be liars.
Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, September 26th, 2017 - 27 comments
National have maintained their own vote but killed off all their political friends. Which is why their only route to power is now in the hands of an enemy, and why that enemy should be very wary of hitching his wagon to their fading star.
Written By: - Date published: 8:39 am, September 24th, 2017 - 361 comments
Some thoughts on the morning after a bitter sweet election result for Labour and the Greens.
Written By: - Date published: 11:26 pm, August 9th, 2017 - 92 comments
If you want to know why the right is farting so much personal smoke, take a look at the poll trends 2011, 2014, 2017. It’s not a pretty picture for the Nats.
Written By: - Date published: 12:57 pm, August 1st, 2017 - 27 comments
Coalition partners in the wings, game on for the left.
Written By: - Date published: 12:37 pm, July 20th, 2017 - 36 comments
Is how the media would report the plan – to have immigrants work here for 2 years unpaid – if it was a Labour Party policy. (Lookin’ at you Newshub)
Written By: - Date published: 11:53 am, July 7th, 2017 - 212 comments
Disentangling the veritable plate of spaghetti that’s been set before us this election.
Written By: - Date published: 7:24 am, March 27th, 2017 - 73 comments
Marama Fox opens the way for the Māori Party to work with Labour and the Greens.
Written By: - Date published: 7:22 am, March 15th, 2017 - 13 comments
Maori Party Co-Leader, Marama Fox, is playing hardball over Nick Smith latest attempts to weasel out of commitments on the deeply flawed RMA changes that National has spent the last few years trying to find any support for in Parliament. The bill is crap. The Maori party should just drop it regardless how many baubles they think they will get from it.
Written By: - Date published: 7:38 am, March 3rd, 2017 - 19 comments
Andrew Little has confirmed that the Green Party will be first party Labour looks to for a coalition deal after the election.
Written By: - Date published: 10:50 am, February 22nd, 2017 - 329 comments
What if we based our politics on relationships not power?
Written By: - Date published: 5:51 pm, February 20th, 2017 - 53 comments
The agreement between the Mana Movement and the Māori Party.
Written By: - Date published: 2:13 pm, February 20th, 2017 - 13 comments
Te Tai Tokerau looks to be a hotly contested seat in the 2017 general election, and the Greens are entering the fray there for the first time, with new candidate Godfrey Rudolph.
Written By: - Date published: 6:49 am, February 16th, 2017 - 167 comments
Marama Fox and Bill English have painted themselves into a bit of a corner, and Fox is threatening to “walk away from the Government”. Key would have handled this better.
Written By: - Date published: 9:33 am, February 14th, 2017 - 19 comments
The Government is refusing to support Jan Logie’s bill aimed at helping the victims of domestic violence despite the bill receiving support from the ANZ and Business New Zealand supporting the bill going at least to select committee.
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 am, January 24th, 2017 - 81 comments
Totally unexpected in an election year, but Te Ururoa Flavell is making a play for the Māori seats. Morgan Godfery has some thoughts on the hype.
Written By: - Date published: 10:17 am, November 25th, 2016 - 44 comments
Although the personality obstacles probably retired with Turia and Sharples, it is hard to see how Mana’s left wing policies can be reconciled with the Māori Party’s record propping up the Key government.
Written By: - Date published: 7:57 am, November 24th, 2016 - 18 comments
I was rather amused reading Politik’s “Despite the pact Shaw takes on Robertson“ and was struck by the strange way that some political commentators (and probably some politicians) view the world at the political coalface. They really need to start to think about political parties as being like any other organisation. Tactical compromises without a strategic focus will always kill any organisation – eventually.