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Understanding the New Zealand General Election 2023: Historical trends and perspectives.

Written By: - Date published: 6:01 am, September 20th, 2023 - 15 comments

From the outside, the New Zealand 2023 General Election seems both lacklustre and slightly strange. The Labour Government, having won a huge majority in 2020 is now fighting for its political life. Yet National, the main centre-right opposition party is still on average polling significantly worse now than they were when it lost power in 2017.

The report of our death has been grossly exaggerated

Written By: - Date published: 12:34 pm, August 31st, 2023 - 44 comments

Now is not the time to give up, now is the time to work harder at winning.

Should We Worry About Green and Maori Party Taxes?

Written By: - Date published: 7:47 am, July 30th, 2023 - 163 comments

We are the 99%

We need to recognise our risk to the capital flight risk of the 1%, but also recognise the benefit to the 99% of us.

Should Labour take GST off fresh food?

Written By: - Date published: 10:53 am, July 28th, 2023 - 87 comments

National’s Nicola Willis has claimed that Labour will soon announce policy to take GST off fresh fruit and vegetables.

Hipkins’ tax gamble

Written By: - Date published: 6:25 pm, July 12th, 2023 - 92 comments

Chris Hipkins today stated that for any future Government he leads after the next election there will be no wealth or capital gains tax implemented. End of story.

Blowin’ in the wind

Written By: - Date published: 9:02 am, May 31st, 2023 - 36 comments

National is blowing hard on the racist dog whistle by claiming that replacing signs with a Te Reo English version will affect the number of potholes that can be repaired.

What Do The Maori Party Want Anyway?

Written By: - Date published: 8:05 am, May 12th, 2023 - 174 comments

Since they’re touted as 2023’s electoral ‘Kingmakers’, it’s time to understand what the Maori Party really want.

Late Game Bench

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, May 6th, 2023 - 8 comments

Last minutes of this parliamentary term and all teams are subbing out.

Meka Whaitiri is moving to the Maori Party

Written By: - Date published: 10:15 am, May 3rd, 2023 - 138 comments

Meka Whaitiri has quit Labour and confirmed that she will stand for the Maori Party in this year’s election.  She intends to stay on as an MP and sit with the Maori Party.

Luxon slumps in latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:18 pm, March 13th, 2023 - 57 comments

The latest One News Kantar Poll result has been released and it is a doozie.

Prime Ministerial

Written By: - Date published: 11:38 am, February 17th, 2023 - 31 comments

Chris Hipkins has so far not put a foot wrong.  Since he became PM he has quickly and competently reformed the Cabinet and jettisoned policies that were for one reason or another causing problems. And he has quickly asserted control over two massive storms, the first which pummeled the country’s major city and the second which has caused massive floods to much of the East Coast of the North Island.

Luxon’s little experiment

Written By: - Date published: 11:32 am, February 12th, 2023 - 30 comments

luxon sheep

It is really difficult trying to appear to be Prime Minister material and inclusive and to appeal to racists at the same time. Christopher Luxon this week has shown how difficult it is.

Two new polls …

Written By: - Date published: 6:24 pm, January 30th, 2023 - 78 comments

This evening two new political polls have been released both putting Labour ahead of National.

How to get the progressive government we want

Written By: - Date published: 9:59 am, May 23rd, 2022 - 95 comments

What if instead of waiting for a new left wing party to arise, the left worked with the three progressive parties we already have in parliament?

Can This Government Be Saved?

Written By: - Date published: 5:43 pm, March 25th, 2022 - 118 comments

Can Labour win a third term? Here are some pathways up, and some pathways down.

“Labour… stop playing by this tired, neoliberal playbook”

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, March 11th, 2022 - 98 comments

Chloe Swarbrick, the cost of living crisis, and what the economy is for.

Gender split is interesting in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:49 am, October 7th, 2021 - 30 comments

The latest Roy Morgan poll was run between August 30th and September 26th. The headline results of Labour/Greens with 55% (increase by 3.5%) against opposition National/Act/Maori parties on 41% (up 0.5%) were good enough. But they also showed the gender split.. Women are deserting the right.

The Māori Party and the National Party

Written By: - Date published: 7:43 am, May 13th, 2021 - 113 comments

There were dramatic scenes in Parliament yesterday.  Judith Collins chose to again attack Jacinda Ardern about the He Puapua report.  And Māori Party Co leader Rawiri Waititi expressed his disgust at her race baiting in a uniquely New Zealand way.

Donations trouble for Māori Party and National

Written By: - Date published: 8:08 am, April 13th, 2021 - 14 comments

The Electoral laws about donations are pretty clear.  Receive a donation over $30,000 and you should tell the Electoral Commission about the report within the next ten working days.  But the Maori Party and the National Party have both managed to recently breach this simple requirement.

Parliament’s tie issue

Written By: - Date published: 7:29 am, February 10th, 2021 - 90 comments

Not wearing a tie in Parliament is a weird issue for the Maori Party to get ready to die in a ditch about.  But the rules should be changed.

Waikeria Prison

Written By: - Date published: 10:16 am, January 3rd, 2021 - 95 comments

The stand off at Waikeria Prison between inmates and Corrections staff has attracted two responses from opposition parties, one being constructive and helpful and the other being complete and utter grandstanding.

“Beyond Jacinda” – Colin James and Cr Tamatha Paul

Written By: - Date published: 1:45 pm, December 3rd, 2020 - 20 comments

Colin James and Councillor Tamatha Paul will discuss Colin’s paper “Beyond Jacinda” on Monday 7 December at 5:30pm at Baptist Church, 46-48 Boulcott Street Wellington. It will also be shown on Zoom and available on YouTube. Registration links below. All Welcome.

Final election result – Labour ascendant National down and out

Written By: - Date published: 2:26 pm, November 6th, 2020 - 56 comments

The Electoral Commission has released the final results of the 2020 election and if election night was a shocker for National the final result is even worse.

Will Labour go it alone?

Written By: - Date published: 7:42 am, October 21st, 2020 - 99 comments

Tova O’Brien has suggested that a Labour Green joined at the hip coalition is not going to happen.  So what will the next Government look like?

Left/Green/Indigenous

Written By: - Date published: 12:32 pm, October 18th, 2020 - 135 comments

What kind of government might New Zealand have?

Your Preliminary Parliament for 2020

Written By: - Date published: 2:33 am, October 18th, 2020 - 58 comments

On the preliminary results, we have our expected MPs. While Parliament may change a little, we now know its shape, and its likely members- with about three exceptions.

Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush

Written By: - Date published: 10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments

We’ve had three recent pre-election polls. While we wait for results on election day, let’s have a look at where things might be headed.

2020 election campaign – 6 days to go

Written By: - Date published: 9:23 am, October 12th, 2020 - 52 comments

With six days to go to election day the campaigns have reached interesting stages although the underlying trends and events appear to be good for the left.

National has a discipline problem

Written By: - Date published: 12:03 pm, June 13th, 2020 - 28 comments

Yesterday saw two back bench National MPs unintentionally set National’s position on the Government response to Covid 19 and on Hamilton City’s decision to take down a statute that was repugnant to Waikato Tainui.  What has happened to their messaging discipline?

No mates Simon

Written By: - Date published: 10:48 am, February 7th, 2020 - 86 comments

The repercussions from Simon Bridges’ disastrous Waitangi performance continue to reverberate.  His suggestions that Māori seats and the Waitangi Tribunal should be done away with have resulted in the Māori Party indicating it is more likely to support Labour after the election.

Pollwatch: 11/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments

Roy morgan 11/02/2019: 63.2% chance outright labour govt, 36.8% chance labour-green coalition

Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]

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