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Pollwatch: 11/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments

Roy morgan 11/02/2019: 63.2% chance outright labour govt, 36.8% chance labour-green coalition

Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, October 23rd

Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments

In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.

Pollwatch: 5th August, 2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments

The most likely result from Colmar Brunton's 5th august poll as a pie chart: 7 Greens, 51 Labour, 6 NZF, 1 ACT, and 55 National MPs.

The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 28/5/2018

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments

A chart of the expected outcome from this poll. Greens: 6, Labour: 55, National: 58, ACT: 1.

Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.

Broadcasting Standards Authority finds Mike Hosking’s election comments about the Māori Party inaccurate and misleading

Written By: - Date published: 6:15 am, December 20th, 2017 - 56 comments

“Further, his comments the following evening were confusing and insufficient to correct the inaccurate information for viewers.”

National needs a friend

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, December 12th, 2017 - 43 comments

National is pondering one of the realities of MMP.  Without friends its chances of becoming Government are very limited.

Coalition of liars

Written By: - Date published: 6:34 am, October 7th, 2017 - 35 comments

The right wing clobbering machine is already calling a possible Labour Green NZF a “coalition of losers”. Well under MMP a coalition of losers can be the winners. But however you cut it a coalition of liars will always be liars.

National paying the price for cannibalising the political right

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, September 26th, 2017 - 27 comments

National have maintained their own vote but killed off all their political friends. Which is why their only route to power is now in the hands of an enemy, and why that enemy should be very wary of hitching his wagon to their fading star.

The election result

Written By: - Date published: 8:39 am, September 24th, 2017 - 361 comments

Some thoughts on the morning after a bitter sweet election result for Labour and the Greens.

The Climate Debate Tues 7pm

Written By: - Date published: 6:55 pm, September 19th, 2017 - 18 comments

Event at Auckland Uni and live streamed, the major political parties debate the climate with Rod Oram as MC.

It is National’s time for the brown trousers

Written By: - Date published: 11:26 pm, August 9th, 2017 - 92 comments

If you want to know why the right is farting so much personal smoke, take a look at the poll trends 2011, 2014, 2017. It’s not a pretty picture for the Nats.

Greens and the Māori Party on the new Labour leaders

Written By: - Date published: 12:57 pm, August 1st, 2017 - 27 comments

Coalition partners in the wings, game on for the left.

Maori Party proposes immigrant slave labour!

Written By: - Date published: 12:37 pm, July 20th, 2017 - 36 comments

Is how the media would report the plan – to have immigrants work here for 2 years unpaid – if it was a Labour Party policy. (Lookin’ at you Newshub)

Flavell has “no idea” how homelessness got so bad

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, July 19th, 2017 - 172 comments

Could it have anything to do with the government of the last nine years, and the policies that you and your party have been supporting?

This Bloody Vote.

Written By: - Date published: 11:53 am, July 7th, 2017 - 212 comments

Disentangling the veritable plate of spaghetti that’s been set before us this election.

Mana Māori truce didn’t last long

Written By: - Date published: 10:15 am, April 3rd, 2017 - 58 comments

“A poisonous and destructive cancer” – that’s not something you say to your allies.

Marama Fox on working with a Labour/Green government

Written By: - Date published: 7:24 am, March 27th, 2017 - 73 comments

Marama Fox opens the way for the Māori Party to work with Labour and the Greens.

National’s flawed RMA ripoff still failing

Written By: - Date published: 7:22 am, March 15th, 2017 - 13 comments

Maori Party Co-Leader, Marama Fox, is playing hardball over Nick Smith latest attempts to weasel out of commitments on the deeply flawed RMA changes that National has spent the last few years trying to find any support for in Parliament. The bill is crap. The Maori party should just drop it regardless how many baubles they think they will get from it.

Labour: Greens are the first cab off the rank

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 am, March 3rd, 2017 - 19 comments

Andrew Little has confirmed that the Green Party will be first party Labour looks to for a coalition deal after the election.

It’s past time to be bold about water

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, February 25th, 2017 - 147 comments

Water is both the front line and the rallying cry.

Kaupapa Pākehā

Written By: - Date published: 10:50 am, February 22nd, 2017 - 329 comments

What if we based our politics on relationships not power?

He Kawenata ki Waenga i Te Roopu MANA me Te Paati Māori

Written By: - Date published: 5:51 pm, February 20th, 2017 - 53 comments

The agreement between the Mana Movement and the Māori Party.

The Greens in Te Tai Tokerau

Written By: - Date published: 2:13 pm, February 20th, 2017 - 13 comments

Te Tai Tokerau looks to be a hotly contested seat in the 2017 general election, and the Greens are entering the fray there for the first time, with new candidate Godfrey Rudolph.

Māori Mana deal in Te Tai Tokerau

Written By: - Date published: 12:18 pm, February 20th, 2017 - 165 comments

As reported on Stuff: “Hone Harawira gets clear Te Tai Tokerau run for Mana not running against Maori Party in other seats”.

Marama Fox vs Bill English – who will blink?

Written By: - Date published: 6:49 am, February 16th, 2017 - 167 comments

Marama Fox and Bill English have painted themselves into a bit of a corner, and Fox is threatening to “walk away from the Government”. Key would have handled this better.

Government will not support victims of domestic violence

Written By: - Date published: 9:33 am, February 14th, 2017 - 19 comments

The Government is refusing to support Jan Logie’s bill aimed at helping the victims of domestic violence despite the bill receiving support from the ANZ and Business New Zealand supporting the bill going at least to select committee.

Māori politics – “don’t believe the hype”

Written By: - Date published: 8:42 am, January 24th, 2017 - 81 comments

Totally unexpected in an election year, but Te Ururoa Flavell is making a play for the Māori seats. Morgan Godfery has some thoughts on the hype.

The end of ‘governing from the centre’?

Written By: - Date published: 3:33 pm, January 10th, 2017 - 124 comments

And a return to the politics of division by Blinglish…

Mana and Māori Party ‘unification’?

Written By: - Date published: 10:17 am, November 25th, 2016 - 44 comments

Although the personality obstacles probably retired with Turia and Sharples, it is hard to see how Mana’s left wing policies can be reconciled with the Māori Party’s record propping up the Key government.

Politik on Labour/ Greens

Written By: - Date published: 7:57 am, November 24th, 2016 - 18 comments

I was rather amused reading Politik’s “Despite the pact Shaw takes on Robertson and was struck by the strange way that some political commentators (and probably some politicians) view the world at the political coalface. They really need to start to think about political parties as being like any other organisation. Tactical compromises without a strategic focus will always kill any organisation – eventually.

RMA changes back on agenda

Written By: - Date published: 11:51 am, November 9th, 2016 - 19 comments

A good day to dump bad news. Looks like RMA changes are back on agenda, courtesy of the Maori Party.

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