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Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton poll released 2020-07-30

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments

Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?

National’s Internal Polling Leaked

Written By: - Date published: 6:46 pm, July 28th, 2020 - 40 comments

Yet another leak from Judith Collins’ Strong Team™. This time it’s their own polling … and it’s grim news.

Pollwatch: Reid Research poll completed 2020-07-24

Written By: - Date published: 9:27 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 89 comments

Labour has hit stratospheric highs in the new Reid Research poll at 60.9%, and still have a strong partner in the Greens at 5.7%. Who’s in and out on these numbers? How has Collins performed?

Latest Newshub Reid Research poll – yet another rogue poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:12 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 144 comments

Tova O’Brien said that it would be a bombshell result and it was.  

Association of Conspiracy Theorists

Written By: - Date published: 7:44 am, July 25th, 2020 - 81 comments

Act is proposing to introduce measures that will limit the amount of money people on benefits can spend on alcohol and tobacco.  But not guns.

Winston Peters Names Alleged Super Leaker

Written By: - Date published: 4:44 pm, July 22nd, 2020 - 87 comments

Winston Peters has named the person he says leaked his super details. Has ACT joined National in doing Dirty Politics?

What does National do in Epsom?

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 33 comments

Last night’s Reid Research Newshub poll result will be reverberating through National’s caucus.  And raises the question, do they gift Epsom to ACT and maybe get a right wing MP or do they preserve every seat they can for themselves.

Newshub Poll Shock!

Written By: - Date published: 6:30 pm, May 18th, 2020 - 158 comments

The May 2020 Newshub/Reid Research poll is astonishing. You’ve have, quite literally, never seen anything like it.

Roger Douglas attacks economic privilege and inequality

Written By: - Date published: 10:18 am, May 5th, 2020 - 261 comments

Roger Douglas has reverted to his socialist roots by going back on his pro market mantra and criticising the economic privilege and inequality that he helped create.

New electorate boundaries

Written By: - Date published: 9:05 am, April 20th, 2020 - 37 comments

I missed it, but we got the new electorate boundaries on Friday. Now electorate boundaries simply don’t matter as much as they used to because of MMP. These days mostly the only people who notice them are electorate MPs, political parties that are too close to the 5% list party boundary, and of course sock-puppet parties like Act and their National party hand. Plus of course political blog sites.

Matthew’s Magic Numbers

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 pm, April 15th, 2020 - 43 comments

Matthew Hooton has tweeted a series of numbers. They add up to good news for the Government.

UPDATE: Curia Polling reckons it’s even better for Labour!

The right politicising the coronavirus

Written By: - Date published: 2:38 pm, February 26th, 2020 - 113 comments

NACT’s values are showing. 

The problem with opinion polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 am, February 14th, 2020 - 77 comments

This week the Reid Research Poll predicted a Labour Green government and the Colmar Brunton poll predicted a National ACT government.  Which one will be proved correct?

Federated Farmers launches petition against its business model

Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, January 19th, 2020 - 157 comments

Federated Farmers has started a petition against an educational resource that teaches about climate change and activism because it does not present their industry in a sufficiently positive way.

End of Life Bill passes

Written By: - Date published: 8:53 am, November 14th, 2019 - 98 comments

David Seymour’s End of Life Bill passed through Parliament last night by 69 votes to 51.  We are now facing a referendum at the next election.

The thoughts of Matt King on climate change

Written By: - Date published: 7:58 am, August 26th, 2019 - 85 comments

National MP Matt King has been caught posting climate change denial material on his facebook page.

Flact Tax

Written By: - Date published: 7:54 am, June 17th, 2019 - 175 comments

Act has proposed a tax increase for the bottom 64% of all tax payers.

The freedom to insult

Written By: - Date published: 5:37 pm, June 15th, 2019 - 149 comments

David Seymour is proposing a law change that would protect neo nazis from the effects of their hate speech unless the speech also incited or threatened violence.

Pollwatch: 9th June 2019

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments

We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]

In praise of Judith Collins

Written By: - Date published: 3:58 pm, May 17th, 2019 - 35 comments

In what is possibly a first ever occurrence the Standard is publishing a post in praise of Judith Collins for standing up for Green MP Golriz Ghahraman.

Splitters!

Written By: - Date published: 10:37 am, April 26th, 2019 - 34 comments

David Moffett, a Former board member of the New Conservative Party has announced the launch of a new new conservative party.

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll April 2019

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, April 15th, 2019 - 50 comments

The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll is out and it says that a Labour/Greens Government is what NZ wants. Oh, and we quite like Jacinda Ardern.

MSSA Bill reported back

Written By: - Date published: 8:10 am, April 9th, 2019 - 10 comments

The Finance and Expenditure Select Committee has reported back the Arms Amendment Bill which will ban the general availability of military style semi automatic weapons with only modest changes.

David is delayed

Written By: - Date published: 11:27 am, April 3rd, 2019 - 13 comments

David Seymour has done something even more embarrassing than twerking on Dancing with the Stars.

The gun lobby fights back

Written By: - Date published: 12:27 pm, March 30th, 2019 - 16 comments

The Herald is reporting that Gun City the business that sold the military style semi automatic weapons to the Christchurch Mosque killer, has urged customers to sign a petition against banning military style semi automatic weapons.

The Green Party on the Mosque murders

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, March 29th, 2019 - 194 comments

Recent criticism of Marama Davidson and Golriz Ghahraman over their drawing links between racism and the Mosque murders is misplaced.

Adequate gun control and (almost) complete party support.

Written By: - Date published: 8:43 am, March 22nd, 2019 - 128 comments

Now that I’ve had time to look through what has been implemented and what is proposed to happen with changes to gun laws and think about it. I’m almost satisfied. Since that so seldom happens that I suspect a gotcha, I’m now going to keep debugging until I am sure that it is actually as good as it looks.

 

National crashes select committee meeting

Written By: - Date published: 11:11 am, February 13th, 2019 - 208 comments

National has decided to play politics and sabotaged today’s Finance and Expenditure Select Committee meeting.

Pollwatch: 11/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments

Roy morgan 11/02/2019: 63.2% chance outright labour govt, 36.8% chance labour-green coalition

Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]

Auckland’s yellow jacket protest

Written By: - Date published: 1:14 pm, February 3rd, 2019 - 24 comments

Some observations on yesterday’s yellow jacket protest in Auckland. Basically it was pretty mundane but continued vigilance is important.

Simon Wilson thinks Epsom could be offered to Blue-Greens

Written By: - Date published: 8:17 am, February 1st, 2019 - 62 comments

Simon Wilson has suggested that the only way National may have to establish a Blue Green presence in Parliament is to offer them the seat of Epsom.

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