Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments
Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?
Written By: - Date published: 9:27 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 89 comments
Labour has hit stratospheric highs in the new Reid Research poll at 60.9%, and still have a strong partner in the Greens at 5.7%. Who’s in and out on these numbers? How has Collins performed?
Written By: - Date published: 6:12 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 144 comments
Tova O’Brien said that it would be a bombshell result and it was.
Written By: - Date published: 7:44 am, July 25th, 2020 - 81 comments
Act is proposing to introduce measures that will limit the amount of money people on benefits can spend on alcohol and tobacco. But not guns.
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 33 comments
Last night’s Reid Research Newshub poll result will be reverberating through National’s caucus. And raises the question, do they gift Epsom to ACT and maybe get a right wing MP or do they preserve every seat they can for themselves.
Written By: - Date published: 10:18 am, May 5th, 2020 - 261 comments
Roger Douglas has reverted to his socialist roots by going back on his pro market mantra and criticising the economic privilege and inequality that he helped create.
Written By: - Date published: 9:05 am, April 20th, 2020 - 37 comments
I missed it, but we got the new electorate boundaries on Friday. Now electorate boundaries simply don’t matter as much as they used to because of MMP. These days mostly the only people who notice them are electorate MPs, political parties that are too close to the 5% list party boundary, and of course sock-puppet parties like Act and their National party hand. Plus of course political blog sites.
Written By: - Date published: 7:15 pm, April 15th, 2020 - 43 comments
Matthew Hooton has tweeted a series of numbers. They add up to good news for the Government.
UPDATE: Curia Polling reckons it’s even better for Labour!
Written By: - Date published: 7:38 am, February 14th, 2020 - 77 comments
This week the Reid Research Poll predicted a Labour Green government and the Colmar Brunton poll predicted a National ACT government. Which one will be proved correct?
Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, January 19th, 2020 - 157 comments
Federated Farmers has started a petition against an educational resource that teaches about climate change and activism because it does not present their industry in a sufficiently positive way.
Written By: - Date published: 8:53 am, November 14th, 2019 - 98 comments
David Seymour’s End of Life Bill passed through Parliament last night by 69 votes to 51. We are now facing a referendum at the next election.
Written By: - Date published: 7:54 am, June 17th, 2019 - 175 comments
Act has proposed a tax increase for the bottom 64% of all tax payers.
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments
We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]
Written By: - Date published: 10:37 am, April 26th, 2019 - 34 comments
David Moffett, a Former board member of the New Conservative Party has announced the launch of a new new conservative party.
Written By: - Date published: 8:10 am, April 9th, 2019 - 10 comments
The Finance and Expenditure Select Committee has reported back the Arms Amendment Bill which will ban the general availability of military style semi automatic weapons with only modest changes.
Written By: - Date published: 12:27 pm, March 30th, 2019 - 16 comments
The Herald is reporting that Gun City the business that sold the military style semi automatic weapons to the Christchurch Mosque killer, has urged customers to sign a petition against banning military style semi automatic weapons.
Written By: - Date published: 8:43 am, March 22nd, 2019 - 128 comments
Now that I’ve had time to look through what has been implemented and what is proposed to happen with changes to gun laws and think about it. I’m almost satisfied. Since that so seldom happens that I suspect a gotcha, I’m now going to keep debugging until I am sure that it is actually as good as it looks.
Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]
Written By: - Date published: 8:17 am, February 1st, 2019 - 62 comments
Simon Wilson has suggested that the only way National may have to establish a Blue Green presence in Parliament is to offer them the seat of Epsom.