I am picking the the turn out this election will collapse, I think we'll be lucky to get two thirds of voters to the polls on election day. I am worried the 20% undecided vote will simply not bother.
Certainly the obvious impact of violent burglary (ram raids etc) in local communities is very evident – and has a huge impact on the public perception of the crime rate.
The new Labour policies to address this, are seen as 'too little, too late' (as in, why didn't you introduce them 2 years ago).
I just got very meh, about hipkins when he went and dud the stupid gst off food policy, no one rates it it made me wonder if he's bright enough for the job tbh
No that GST policy is in Aus and does make a difference.
Chris Hipkins is clever and practical. He has degrees in politics and criminology, and has worked in the private and public spheres. He believes in social justice.
His 5 point plan for NZ is far more cohesive than anything offered by National Act so far.
20% say they have not decided. We are still in this fight in spite of their money
In 2017 I said "It is not over 'till the fat lady sings" That is still true.
Agreed- not only is the GST off F&V not targetted it will overwhelmingly accrue to the rich at the expense of the poor. Rich buy a lot of fruit and veges, poor do not. Worst panic policy ever.
If he slips to 4.9 (which is roughly his average anyway) and let's face it anybody from the Left shouldn't be going near NZF given they have refused to work with Labour, then it is still all to play for.
it's not like the Greens would be running the show either. Time to give them some more power and see what they do. Labour will still have the PM*, appoint ministers, and run caucus.
*although why not do a Winston and have Shaw as PM
I like what he does a lot, and this year I'm really starting to see him as PM material. Pity we have the kind of system that we do that means this is unlikely. Maybe we're better off with him as Climate Minister.
Given the lack of people engaging on the Standard . Labour supporters have given up.usually around election time the posts are in the hundreds now in the 10's. Is their another forum ?
Usually around election time, posts will still just have 10s of comments per post. However this year we are short of people writing posts. There are only one every day at best outside of OpenMike/Daily Review.
This is pretty obvious when you look at the archives around previous election times. If you have 10 Posts in a day, then you’ll get a one that heads to or over 100 comments. Most get less than 20-30 comments.
Don’t know about anyone else, but I’m far too busy working on projects I’m employed to produce on. Plus I kind of ran out of new things to say on politics over the last 15 years on the site, and I hate repeating myself.
Bear in mind trickledown a lot of those comments in the past came from right wing trolls who used to disrupt the discourse until the mods decided to do something about it. They have all disappeared now. Ten years ago the blogosphere was still a novelty. I think it has worn off since then.
I’m fully retired and am physically limited due to osteo-arthritis so have the time to dilly dally around The Standard.
Some one is doing OK – I just caught up with the news that Indian airlines have announced orders for a record 500(!) airliners at the June Paris Airshow.
I am puzzled about all this fits into any sort of climate change plan, but then everyone I know seems to have gone overseas this year so I guess no one is really that worried.
Talk about hydrogen Air NZ planes and being a provider on the Radio. I missed the rest as the lawn man arrived. lol I rushed round to shut out the fumes and missed the actual item.
Might be the last mass exit for a while, we went this year and shit Europe is expensive. Which tallies with Womens Footy WC visitors here who said they loved how much cheaper it was than where they came from. Dont believe the bullshit, yes things are dearer here than they were 4 years ago but nowhere near over there.
An addendum to above, we visited Europe in 2018, to visit children and older rellies about to slip off the perch, so we have a good comparison, and a rough guess would be almost twice the price as 5 years ago.
I was recently in France and England and agree it's very expensive, way more than NZ. The National art gallery and British Museum are both excellent and free. Also the flying is an emissions nightmare.
Central Asia (Uzbekistan and the other stans) were great , closer and more affordable.
Last time I went I heeded the advice of my Dr who said when you are in the UK just think of the GBP as NZ$ and don't do any conversions and so you don't get taken aback by the prices.
I have spent some time in Europe I have family there .It can be dear especially in tourist hotshots but else where very cheap clothing shoes and food except in winter.
Humans are exceptional – we can cook an entire planet! BAU (growth) simply must continue, including travel around spaceship Earth – how else to pump up profits?
So far there have been 1,264 order and options commitents announced during the show, more than a 1,000 of which are from two airlines; Air India and IndiGo Airlines.
IndiGo opened the show with a deal for 500 Airbus A320neo family jets, all firm aircraft. The following day Air India firmed its February commitment for 470 aircraft – a mix of narrowbodies and widebodies from Airbus and Boeing — together with options on 70 more units.
I'd attribute this to the increasing size of the middle class in India – with the consequent demand for overseas tourism.
I think you are right Belladonna, Just got back from Vietnam and Thailand, and lots of Russian tourists, but especially noticeable was the large numbers of Indian visitors and Indigo planes.
I am puzzled about all this fits into any sort of climate change plan, but then everyone I know seems to have gone overseas this year so I guess no one is really that worried.
Na it's the cows, it certainly isn't pointless tourism causing problems
The most 'Greenie' family I know (daily cycle commuters, don't own a car, compost and vege garden, keep chickens, flexitarian, staunch GP voters) – have just come back from an extended-family (3 generations) – round-the-world trip to see family and friends in multiple countries.
And are planning for overseas family to visit them this summer.
Yep. Personal air travel will be just as resistant as farming to any move that tries to limit it. Perhaps more so. Just got my passport (that expired 7 years ago) renewed. Not being able to afford something (or only rarely afford it) is a good deterrent – but the deterrence is not equally distributed.
I've noticed the same trend; most of our English friends have flown back to the UK to see relatives (perfectly understandable, in view of their parents being elderly) but it doesn't do much for the climate.
Then there are the two others who are on a jaunt to Spain and Portugal to see the sights.
They'll be in for an interesting time as Spain's water reservoirs are said to be running dry, and much of Europe has been under drought for months. To add to the fun, Greece and Turkey have recently copped massive floods.
I won’t be booking a riverboat cruise on the Danube for the foreseeable future.
I've been thinking and thinking about this over the last few days.
Posie Parker/KJK Minshull comes to NZ to attend/participate in the trial of the tomato sauce thrower.
As we know the last time she came here the response from the Labour politicans was less than stellar with several, Woods/Hipkins, seemingly making comments off the cuff or without the benefit of a briefing that set out the issues (as opposed to a partisan view of the issues)
This was followed up by Hipkins stumbling and bumbling when asked the question 'What is a woman?' by Sean Plunket. He was not aware of the issues and even had to be prompted about what was happening in the UK and Keir Starmer's inane response.
Some women I know are tentatively making their way to Labour.
This is not about the issues.
My worry is that Hipkins will be as poorly briefed as he was last time, make himself and the party look silly and in doing so make light of the women's rights issues around participation in sport etc etc.
Without a grip on the issues including that it cannot/should not be mocked by referring to toilets when you are talking about the votes of women, I fear he may turn around the tentative steps by many women back to the left. Many would not vote for The Greens because of their stance on Gender politics/issue and what may happen is that they may not vote at all.
…..And then the ideas in this column by Verity Johnson come true and the pleas are ignored.
Now is not the time to cut off democracy’s nose to spite Labour’s face.
My view is that if PM Hipkins gives a fair go to the concerns of women, if asked, is briefed on the entirety of the issues, then the tentative steps of many women back to Labour may mean they find themselves in the polling booths on Election day voting Labour or a party from the left, rather than abstaining.
As I said my biggest fear, and this is really so, is that Hipkins makes a hash of this, is not properly briefed and denies women the verity, to coin a phrase, of their concerns. This then turns off many, who then don't vote at all.
I don't want to debate the issues, this plea is solely about being on top of the issues ie properly briefed and doing justice to the valid concerns that exist.
Labour cannot afford to lose one single vote this election especially if this was a vote within its grasp.
My immediate response to Hipkins in reply to Plinkett was that he had been over briefed. Only from one side of the issues.
So fully aware of the metaphorical political land mine in answering that question. If only he had the courage to give an authentic answer, even with a caveat including those who weren't born female.
Authenticity shines when we come across it nowadays. From art, music (witness Anthony Oliver's Rich men north of Richmond and the reactions to it) through to politics. My reckons have it that the instagramm/tik tok influence of posting the highlights or best bits of life reeks of insincerity.
I'm not seeing anything that suggests to me Labour are prepared for this. Given that, what else can we do? I think talking, a lot, about the damage that a Nact or Nact/NZF would do to women compared to a L/G/TPM government, is important.
Yes, there are serious issues around women's sexed based rights. Those will be easier to solve under a centre left government, because activism is easier then. We also need to convince the liberals making policy to adopt progressive approaches. Nact/NZF will bring in regressive, reactionary ones, that won't be good for women.
Do we want gender conformity enforced? Because that's what the right will do. Also, punitive welfare will hit low income women hard as will the increased housing crisis. Expect cuts to lots of services that women rely on, and I would guess cuts to funding too.
I'm not seeing anything that suggests to me Labour are prepared for this. Given that, what else can we do? I think talking, a lot, about the damage that a Nact or Nact/NZF would do to women compared to a L/G/TPM government, is important.
Yes I am talking and raising the spectre of the right but it will be made much more difficult if we have Hipkins, overly or inadequately briefed, giving a poor answer or a 'toilet' answer. If so all the nose holding, tentative steps back and possible voting for the Left won't work if once again he misses the point.
I now have no links to Labour and I guess my hope is that someone on here with links can get the message through to be careful, be properly briefed when/if asked for comment when Posie Parker/KJ Minshull arrives for the court case.
I think you're repeating yourself there. My point was that at this stage of the electoral cycle, the kind of philosophical and real politik shift we would prefer is unlikely to happen. I agree it would be great if Labour insiders worked on this, and I assume they in fact are but are met with too much resistance.
That change will happen over time, just like it did in the UK. From persistence and progressive framing. The big risk right now is that KJK's visit will be used by the likes of Peters, ACT, and the fringe parties to nobble the election. Peters and KJK are two peas from the same pod, both opportunistic populists who are playing dangerous power games. Irrespective of the useful things that both do, they are hugely problematic at this point because populist, reactionary politics undermines democracy.
NZF don't even have any policies. Just a list of talking points. If they get in again, expect the damage to NZ to be significant. It will be the worst of NACT plus Peters' active fomenting of Trumpian pol in NZ.
The only solution to that that I can see in the next five weeks is to 1) campaign hard in whatever way we can for a L/G/TPM government and 2) be prepared for the shit that might eventuate with KJK's visit (we might get really lucky and it's a damp squib).
Yep. The question is designed to be problematic. But all "what is a …" questions are inherently problematic. How do you decide what the essential versus the accidental characteristics of a thing actually are? What rules should govern the making of this distinction? And why?
Wearing a dress is pretty clearly an accidental property of being a woman – and so on. It gets trickier as you keep going. If you can't decide what is essential and what is accidental, is the thing really a 'thing', or just a notional thing, a convenient name for an abstract idea? But that doesn't feel right either – our day to day understanding dislikes such a dissolving of things into just names. It's a murky area best left to incomprehensibly clever people working in philosophy departments. I have no clue.
I think your answer is an excellent one if the questioner is a young, male, right-wing culture warrior.
What is a woman? is a very easy question to answer. Adult human female.
Hipkins' problem is that he's stuck between a rock and a hard place. The hard place is the gender identity ideologists who actively harm people and politics who don't adhere to their world view absolutely. The rock is the fact that most people don't believe that humans can change sex, and they think males in women's sports is unfair and males in women's spaces is unsafe.
Fortunately most people also want trans people to be ok. Which means there is an open door to talking both/and in terms of trans people and women's sex based rights. Labour will get there, but this election is so close that Labour not being prepared for the question puts the left winning the election at risk.
I think Labour lost their chance of re-election with the last half-arsed budget. They have lost control of the narrative. The average voter is hurting and all Labour is offering is band-aid fixes. Hipkins either doesn't have the balls to rein in the price gouging monopolists and tax dodgers, or he is just a useless neoliberal who doesn't wanna do shit.
Labour needed to demonstrate to the public that they were serious about the cost of living, housing, and crime. And somehow turn the page from the painful Covid lockdowns. But they haven't had a real circuit breaker and the people want change.
I don't particularly disagree with what you are saying about Hipkins' Labour, but it's an own goal to give up at this point.
Talbot Mills has NZF at 5.4%, that's close the threshold. We should be fighting with everything we've got, because that's not that many votes to swing back to Labour to put the left back in the game.
The Greens have been known to pick up an extra seat on the Specials, it's why they have campaigned overseas (don't know what they're doing this year, but I'm sure they've love some help in Aus).
I don't have a good 'feel' for whether NZF will get over the threshold or not. (I'd prefer 'not', I don't have a lot of time for Winston First). Historically, NZF have been more likely to under-poll and deliver a slightly higher result on election day.
But, I seriously doubt whether there are many, if any, 'soft' votes there that Labour can claw back. He's been deliberately targeting the anti-mandate-mob, cleverly tapping into the pain that many people experienced during the lockdowns. To those people, Labour is the demonic party which caused the pain – they may sit the election out, but it will be a cold day in hell before they vote Labour in 2023.
Labour has a better chance of targeting soft-National votes (the maligned 'centre' voter).
It looks like he is just in a down market, rat infested ( but trendy ) fleapit of an Auckland cafe. Getting down with the street, yoh.
PS. Want to solve the productivity problem in NZ ? Close down 2/3rds of the cafes like they intend to do with toxic vape shops and send everybody in them, bored arsesitters and so called cafe "professionals, give me a fucking break !, out into the real world to do some proper work producing something or curing and caring for those who need it. Hell we could turn the balance of payments around just with the lack of coffee imported.
"In 2021, New Zealand imported $84.8M in Coffee, mainly from Switzerland ($15.6M), Brazil ($10.6M), Colombia ($8.16M), Australia ($6.86M), and Papua New Guinea ($5.49M)."
That's at about $8 a kg. So, say 10 million kg. at 120-140 cups per kg. That's 1,300,000,000 cups. NZ has 3 million coffee drinkers? They would drink 433 cups each. At $5 a cup, that's $2165 each coffee drinker on average. Gross expenditure on coffee in a cup- up to $6,500,000,000.
Adrian, you have grounds for #5. You deserve a coffee break.
'He also talked about fixing the rental market, getting capital to good community housing providers, and looking at a different way of managing infrastructure development.
"In a country the size of New Zealand, to have a housing crisis like we have is really not acceptable," Luxon said.-Stuff.
As if his roll backs of Lab policy that have dampened the ludicrous flipping market,and given FHB better opportunities and his other announced policies are in anyway going to alleviate this…crisis.
But, but, but when you speak with forked tongue you can say different and contradictory things – first to wave a snow job over the concept of housing so it sounds real, while the other fork speaks meaningfully to the 'entrepreneurs' and speculators.
The Act Party says it saw no need to disclose that one of its candidates was censured by the Real Estate Authority. When I called him, he acknowledged he'd been the subject of four formal complaints, one resulting in a censure. My article at @NewsroomNZ($)
Act MP-in-waiting did not publicly disclose censure over real estate deal: ‘As a real estate agent, Zane Cozens faced complaints of pressuring elderly home-owners to sell their homes for less than they wanted to.’
Why doesn't Fisiani have the brain cells to realise that a link to their Stats showing the volume of volunteers is needed to back up their claim. Could it be they're just trolling and begging for a ban. Just asking questions?
Fishiani/Fizziani is back, what may I ask old chap is your basis for saying “Why is is it that there are are so few Labour volunteers this time?” it may be illuminating for other readers…
don't do polling. I just spoke to them and confirmed they have nothing to do with it. Work on our bullshit nerves people, when they go off, believe them
The development of the code is in recognition of the fact that reporting of polls can have an impact on how people vote.
Inaccurate polls or polls that are reported inaccurately can impact on voting attitudes and behaviours and thus influence the democratic process.
All members of the polling and media communities must treat polling responsibly. Reliable polls, rather than informal surveys, require a high degree of rigour. These guidelines are designed to ensure that rigour is understood and applied.
Here's their membership directory but honestly these people could be anyone and we have zero idea what tests RANZ do to ensure their members comply with their guideline code. If indeed any test exists at all.
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A grim poll for Labour but "It shows the results aren’t yet baked in: around one-in-five voters are undecided or ‘’soft’’ in their voting intention."
National 36%
Labour 26%
Green 12%
ACT 11%
NZ First 6%
Te Pāti Māori 3%
https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/politics/350068072/labour-slumps-new-poll-low-numbers-offer-some-comfort
I am picking the the turn out this election will collapse, I think we'll be lucky to get two thirds of voters to the polls on election day. I am worried the 20% undecided vote will simply not bother.
A low turnout typically favours the Right. The shift in 50+ voters from L/G to NACT should give some concern (https://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-05-09-2023/#comment-1967058).
I think the perception that Labour is soft on crime is a big factor.
Certainly the obvious impact of violent burglary (ram raids etc) in local communities is very evident – and has a huge impact on the public perception of the crime rate.
The new Labour policies to address this, are seen as 'too little, too late' (as in, why didn't you introduce them 2 years ago).
I just got very meh, about hipkins when he went and dud the stupid gst off food policy, no one rates it it made me wonder if he's bright enough for the job tbh
No that GST policy is in Aus and does make a difference.
Chris Hipkins is clever and practical. He has degrees in politics and criminology, and has worked in the private and public spheres. He believes in social justice.
His 5 point plan for NZ is far more cohesive than anything offered by National Act so far.
20% say they have not decided. We are still in this fight in spite of their money
In 2017 I said "It is not over 'till the fat lady sings" That is still true.
So you believe the NZ supermart duopoly will pass the gst reduction on to consumers for longer than 2 weeks?
Yes otherwise they will be in the shit big time ~
Agreed- not only is the GST off F&V not targetted it will overwhelmingly accrue to the rich at the expense of the poor. Rich buy a lot of fruit and veges, poor do not. Worst panic policy ever.
Like us the poor will benefit from the GST off frozen/fresh veg as well as having a Grocery Commissioner.
I think it will be a long time before we benefit from extra EV stations or 13roads or a great walk or an Ombudsman for disasters and floods.
There is a difference between wishes and needs.
Mmmm it's 47-41 without Winston.
If he slips to 4.9 (which is roughly his average anyway) and let's face it anybody from the Left shouldn't be going near NZF given they have refused to work with Labour, then it is still all to play for.
I like it ! Keep up the Positive. and the Fight.
Yes Darien Fenton's list of worker protections implemented under this government is reason enough to protect what we have.
Winston First will be 8-9%
Weirdly the more Labour goes down the more loyal my vote is towards them.
I tend to vote labour when they're weak, the greens when labour is strong.
But most likely it's greens this time, sick of the same, bit scared of the greens but fuckit things gotta change
it's not like the Greens would be running the show either. Time to give them some more power and see what they do. Labour will still have the PM*, appoint ministers, and run caucus.
*although why not do a Winston and have Shaw as PM
Shaw impresses me everytime I see him ,
I like what he does a lot, and this year I'm really starting to see him as PM material. Pity we have the kind of system that we do that means this is unlikely. Maybe we're better off with him as Climate Minister.
That is more like it Ad….keep it up.
Given the lack of people engaging on the Standard . Labour supporters have given up.usually around election time the posts are in the hundreds now in the 10's. Is their another forum ?
Usually around election time, posts will still just have 10s of comments per post. However this year we are short of people writing posts. There are only one every day at best outside of OpenMike/Daily Review.
This is pretty obvious when you look at the archives around previous election times. If you have 10 Posts in a day, then you’ll get a one that heads to or over 100 comments. Most get less than 20-30 comments.
Don’t know about anyone else, but I’m far too busy working on projects I’m employed to produce on. Plus I kind of ran out of new things to say on politics over the last 15 years on the site, and I hate repeating myself.
Lprent Robert Reich has some new post's on how the oligarchs maintan power.
My lack of engagement these days has more to do with tiring of a certain moderator than anything else.
It's like trying to negotiate with a Pyongyang tram conductor.
Lol
Bear in mind trickledown a lot of those comments in the past came from right wing trolls who used to disrupt the discourse until the mods decided to do something about it. They have all disappeared now. Ten years ago the blogosphere was still a novelty. I think it has worn off since then.
I’m fully retired and am physically limited due to osteo-arthritis so have the time to dilly dally around The Standard.
Sorry to hear that and we'll done for posting.
Some one is doing OK – I just caught up with the news that Indian airlines have announced orders for a record 500(!) airliners at the June Paris Airshow.
https://www.flightglobal.com/orders-and-deliveries/paris-air-show-order-tracker-indigo-deal-and-air-india-confirmation-lead-show-business/153806.article
I am puzzled about all this fits into any sort of climate change plan, but then everyone I know seems to have gone overseas this year so I guess no one is really that worried.
I'm waiting for some kind of time travel or sustainable magic carpet, plus some money of course, before I venture abroad again.
I don't know which of these is going to be more unobtainable.
Talk about hydrogen Air NZ planes and being a provider on the Radio. I missed the rest as the lawn man arrived. lol I rushed round to shut out the fumes and missed the actual item.
Green hydrogen is a joke it's green wash the amount of energy to break the H20 is humongous.
Might be the last mass exit for a while, we went this year and shit Europe is expensive. Which tallies with Womens Footy WC visitors here who said they loved how much cheaper it was than where they came from. Dont believe the bullshit, yes things are dearer here than they were 4 years ago but nowhere near over there.
An addendum to above, we visited Europe in 2018, to visit children and older rellies about to slip off the perch, so we have a good comparison, and a rough guess would be almost twice the price as 5 years ago.
I was recently in France and England and agree it's very expensive, way more than NZ. The National art gallery and British Museum are both excellent and free. Also the flying is an emissions nightmare.
Central Asia (Uzbekistan and the other stans) were great , closer and more affordable.
Yes, Adrian I agree.
Last time I went I heeded the advice of my Dr who said when you are in the UK just think of the GBP as NZ$ and don't do any conversions and so you don't get taken aback by the prices.
Cauliflower @ $13 on the Gold Coast.
I have spent some time in Europe I have family there .It can be dear especially in tourist hotshots but else where very cheap clothing shoes and food except in winter.
Humans are exceptional – we can cook an entire planet! BAU (growth) simply must continue, including travel around spaceship Earth – how else to pump up profits?
Constrained growth? No no NO! Growth is the goose that lays golden eggs, and you can never have too much gold – gold is good, and our goose is cooked.
Double that when you add IndiGo.
I'd attribute this to the increasing size of the middle class in India – with the consequent demand for overseas tourism.
I think you are right Belladonna, Just got back from Vietnam and Thailand, and lots of Russian tourists, but especially noticeable was the large numbers of Indian visitors and Indigo planes.
Na it's the cows, it certainly isn't pointless tourism causing problems
The most 'Greenie' family I know (daily cycle commuters, don't own a car, compost and vege garden, keep chickens, flexitarian, staunch GP voters) – have just come back from an extended-family (3 generations) – round-the-world trip to see family and friends in multiple countries.
And are planning for overseas family to visit them this summer.
What climate crisis…..
Oh I'm sure the offset it by destroying a farming community, so it's all gooood
Yep. Personal air travel will be just as resistant as farming to any move that tries to limit it. Perhaps more so. Just got my passport (that expired 7 years ago) renewed. Not being able to afford something (or only rarely afford it) is a good deterrent – but the deterrence is not equally distributed.
One produces nothing useful, one feeds us .
I've noticed the same trend; most of our English friends have flown back to the UK to see relatives (perfectly understandable, in view of their parents being elderly) but it doesn't do much for the climate.
Then there are the two others who are on a jaunt to Spain and Portugal to see the sights.
They'll be in for an interesting time as Spain's water reservoirs are said to be running dry, and much of Europe has been under drought for months. To add to the fun, Greece and Turkey have recently copped massive floods.
I won’t be booking a riverboat cruise on the Danube for the foreseeable future.
I've been thinking and thinking about this over the last few days.
Posie Parker/KJK Minshull comes to NZ to attend/participate in the trial of the tomato sauce thrower.
As we know the last time she came here the response from the Labour politicans was less than stellar with several, Woods/Hipkins, seemingly making comments off the cuff or without the benefit of a briefing that set out the issues (as opposed to a partisan view of the issues)
This was followed up by Hipkins stumbling and bumbling when asked the question 'What is a woman?' by Sean Plunket. He was not aware of the issues and even had to be prompted about what was happening in the UK and Keir Starmer's inane response.
Some women I know are tentatively making their way to Labour.
This is not about the issues.
My worry is that Hipkins will be as poorly briefed as he was last time, make himself and the party look silly and in doing so make light of the women's rights issues around participation in sport etc etc.
Without a grip on the issues including that it cannot/should not be mocked by referring to toilets when you are talking about the votes of women, I fear he may turn around the tentative steps by many women back to the left. Many would not vote for The Greens because of their stance on Gender politics/issue and what may happen is that they may not vote at all.
…..And then the ideas in this column by Verity Johnson come true and the pleas are ignored.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/300963898/please-you-still-have-to-vote
My view is that if PM Hipkins gives a fair go to the concerns of women, if asked, is briefed on the entirety of the issues, then the tentative steps of many women back to Labour may mean they find themselves in the polling booths on Election day voting Labour or a party from the left, rather than abstaining.
As I said my biggest fear, and this is really so, is that Hipkins makes a hash of this, is not properly briefed and denies women the verity, to coin a phrase, of their concerns. This then turns off many, who then don't vote at all.
I don't want to debate the issues, this plea is solely about being on top of the issues ie properly briefed and doing justice to the valid concerns that exist.
Labour cannot afford to lose one single vote this election especially if this was a vote within its grasp.
My immediate response to Hipkins in reply to Plinkett was that he had been over briefed. Only from one side of the issues.
So fully aware of the metaphorical political land mine in answering that question. If only he had the courage to give an authentic answer, even with a caveat including those who weren't born female.
Authenticity shines when we come across it nowadays. From art, music (witness Anthony Oliver's Rich men north of Richmond and the reactions to it) through to politics. My reckons have it that the instagramm/tik tok influence of posting the highlights or best bits of life reeks of insincerity.
I think he was underprepared (not sure about how he was briefed). We all knew the question was coming, so why didn't they?
I'm not seeing anything that suggests to me Labour are prepared for this. Given that, what else can we do? I think talking, a lot, about the damage that a Nact or Nact/NZF would do to women compared to a L/G/TPM government, is important.
Yes, there are serious issues around women's sexed based rights. Those will be easier to solve under a centre left government, because activism is easier then. We also need to convince the liberals making policy to adopt progressive approaches. Nact/NZF will bring in regressive, reactionary ones, that won't be good for women.
Do we want gender conformity enforced? Because that's what the right will do. Also, punitive welfare will hit low income women hard as will the increased housing crisis. Expect cuts to lots of services that women rely on, and I would guess cuts to funding too.
Yes I am talking and raising the spectre of the right but it will be made much more difficult if we have Hipkins, overly or inadequately briefed, giving a poor answer or a 'toilet' answer. If so all the nose holding, tentative steps back and possible voting for the Left won't work if once again he misses the point.
I now have no links to Labour and I guess my hope is that someone on here with links can get the message through to be careful, be properly briefed when/if asked for comment when Posie Parker/KJ Minshull arrives for the court case.
I think you're repeating yourself there. My point was that at this stage of the electoral cycle, the kind of philosophical and real politik shift we would prefer is unlikely to happen. I agree it would be great if Labour insiders worked on this, and I assume they in fact are but are met with too much resistance.
That change will happen over time, just like it did in the UK. From persistence and progressive framing. The big risk right now is that KJK's visit will be used by the likes of Peters, ACT, and the fringe parties to nobble the election. Peters and KJK are two peas from the same pod, both opportunistic populists who are playing dangerous power games. Irrespective of the useful things that both do, they are hugely problematic at this point because populist, reactionary politics undermines democracy.
NZF don't even have any policies. Just a list of talking points. If they get in again, expect the damage to NZ to be significant. It will be the worst of NACT plus Peters' active fomenting of Trumpian pol in NZ.
The only solution to that that I can see in the next five weeks is to 1) campaign hard in whatever way we can for a L/G/TPM government and 2) be prepared for the shit that might eventuate with KJK's visit (we might get really lucky and it's a damp squib).
Hipkins stumbling and bumbling when asked the question 'What is a woman?' and that being a seminal moment in anyone's life is bizarre.
Of course there is no 'right' answer.
Maybe before he went out that day Hipkins' advisers should have furnished him a list of possible answers just in case the question came up.
Such as, if asked "What is a woman": "One day you'll find out, good luck with your research."
Yep. The question is designed to be problematic. But all "what is a …" questions are inherently problematic. How do you decide what the essential versus the accidental characteristics of a thing actually are? What rules should govern the making of this distinction? And why?
Wearing a dress is pretty clearly an accidental property of being a woman – and so on. It gets trickier as you keep going. If you can't decide what is essential and what is accidental, is the thing really a 'thing', or just a notional thing, a convenient name for an abstract idea? But that doesn't feel right either – our day to day understanding dislikes such a dissolving of things into just names. It's a murky area best left to incomprehensibly clever people working in philosophy departments. I have no clue.
I think your answer is an excellent one if the questioner is a young, male, right-wing culture warrior.
What is a woman? is a very easy question to answer. Adult human female.
Hipkins' problem is that he's stuck between a rock and a hard place. The hard place is the gender identity ideologists who actively harm people and politics who don't adhere to their world view absolutely. The rock is the fact that most people don't believe that humans can change sex, and they think males in women's sports is unfair and males in women's spaces is unsafe.
Fortunately most people also want trans people to be ok. Which means there is an open door to talking both/and in terms of trans people and women's sex based rights. Labour will get there, but this election is so close that Labour not being prepared for the question puts the left winning the election at risk.
A woman is a female without a penis.
'You're a very naughty boy…' from the Life of Brian.
I think Labour lost their chance of re-election with the last half-arsed budget. They have lost control of the narrative. The average voter is hurting and all Labour is offering is band-aid fixes. Hipkins either doesn't have the balls to rein in the price gouging monopolists and tax dodgers, or he is just a useless neoliberal who doesn't wanna do shit.
Labour needed to demonstrate to the public that they were serious about the cost of living, housing, and crime. And somehow turn the page from the painful Covid lockdowns. But they haven't had a real circuit breaker and the people want change.
The left coalition is a tough sell from now on.
I don't particularly disagree with what you are saying about Hipkins' Labour, but it's an own goal to give up at this point.
Talbot Mills has NZF at 5.4%, that's close the threshold. We should be fighting with everything we've got, because that's not that many votes to swing back to Labour to put the left back in the game.
Numbers here
https://twitter.com/120Aotearoa/status/1699629382699295004
and
I haven't given up, but not much I can do from here in Australia
The Greens have been known to pick up an extra seat on the Specials, it's why they have campaigned overseas (don't know what they're doing this year, but I'm sure they've love some help in Aus).
I don't have a good 'feel' for whether NZF will get over the threshold or not. (I'd prefer 'not', I don't have a lot of time for Winston First). Historically, NZF have been more likely to under-poll and deliver a slightly higher result on election day.
But, I seriously doubt whether there are many, if any, 'soft' votes there that Labour can claw back. He's been deliberately targeting the anti-mandate-mob, cleverly tapping into the pain that many people experienced during the lockdowns. To those people, Labour is the demonic party which caused the pain – they may sit the election out, but it will be a cold day in hell before they vote Labour in 2023.
Labour has a better chance of targeting soft-National votes (the maligned 'centre' voter).
Pretty good summation there.
Tinkering around with half arsed 'solutions'…written off as election bribes.
Whoever is responsible for Labour's re-election strategy is about as competent as AB coach…'fizzer' Foster.Hopeless!
Baldrick in a hairnet, might baffle even a few Natzo supporters…
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/09/07/political-caption-competition-2064/
It looks like he is just in a down market, rat infested ( but trendy ) fleapit of an Auckland cafe. Getting down with the street, yoh.
PS. Want to solve the productivity problem in NZ ? Close down 2/3rds of the cafes like they intend to do with toxic vape shops and send everybody in them, bored arsesitters and so called cafe "professionals, give me a fucking break !, out into the real world to do some proper work producing something or curing and caring for those who need it. Hell we could turn the balance of payments around just with the lack of coffee imported.
Much better to shut down all the pubs with their associated pokie machines.
That too.
How much coffee does NZ import?
"In 2021, New Zealand imported $84.8M in Coffee, mainly from Switzerland ($15.6M), Brazil ($10.6M), Colombia ($8.16M), Australia ($6.86M), and Papua New Guinea ($5.49M)."
That's at about $8 a kg. So, say 10 million kg. at 120-140 cups per kg. That's 1,300,000,000 cups. NZ has 3 million coffee drinkers? They would drink 433 cups each. At $5 a cup, that's $2165 each coffee drinker on average. Gross expenditure on coffee in a cup- up to $6,500,000,000.
Adrian, you have grounds for #5. You deserve a coffee break.
What makes you think that people would stop drinking (and therefore importing) coffee, just because 2/3 of the cafes were closed by the gautleiter?
Luxon…presumeably with a straight …face..
'He also talked about fixing the rental market, getting capital to good community housing providers, and looking at a different way of managing infrastructure development.
"In a country the size of New Zealand, to have a housing crisis like we have is really not acceptable," Luxon said.-Stuff.
As if his roll backs of Lab policy that have dampened the ludicrous flipping market,and given FHB better opportunities and his other announced policies are in anyway going to alleviate this…crisis.
But, but, but when you speak with forked tongue you can say different and contradictory things – first to wave a snow job over the concept of housing so it sounds real, while the other fork speaks meaningfully to the 'entrepreneurs' and speculators.
National – working in the service of evil since forever
Re Photo of Luxon in the hairnet, him indoors says,
"The things I have to do for Publicity, take the 'photo "
I said "Trying too hard to be what he is not".
Paywalled but the lede says it all about ACT, the characters it attracts, and their shitty selection processes.
.
@JonoMilne
The Act Party says it saw no need to disclose that one of its candidates was censured by the Real Estate Authority. When I called him, he acknowledged he'd been the subject of four formal complaints, one resulting in a censure. My article at
@NewsroomNZ($)
https://twitter.com/JonoMilne/status/1699566785857773596
Act MP-in-waiting did not publicly disclose censure over real estate deal: ‘As a real estate agent, Zane Cozens faced complaints of pressuring elderly home-owners to sell their homes for less than they wanted to.’
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/pro/act-mp-in-waiting-did-not-publicly-disclose-censure-over-real-estate-deal
Why is is it that there are are so few Labour volunteers this time?
Why doesn't Fisiani have the brain cells to realise that a link to their Stats showing the volume of volunteers is needed to back up their claim. Could it be they're just trolling and begging for a ban. Just asking questions?
Fishiani/Fizziani is back, what may I ask old chap is your basis for saying “Why is is it that there are are so few Labour volunteers this time?” it may be illuminating for other readers…
Saw this on Twitter today. As true as the Taxpayer Union?:
CTU Poll:
Labour 36
National 28
Act 11
Greens 18
TMP 4.8
NZF 4.6
Preferred PM
Hipkins 40
Luxon 18
Symour 3
Ardern 12.
[it’s fake. Please don’t post like this here again without linking. Here’s the fact check (text below for those that can’t see twitter). https://twitter.com/patbrittenden/status/1699576960907882731 – weka]
Rose-coloured glasses…..
image in tweet
https://twitter.com/patbrittenden/status/1699576960907882731
It's still a good exercise in showing how polling is overly relied upon for those who wish to push a particular narrative.
From the Research Association's Political Polling Code:
Here's their membership directory but honestly these people could be anyone and we have zero idea what tests RANZ do to ensure their members comply with their guideline code. If indeed any test exists at all.