Anyway…listening to "The Country" Radio show, with Jamie McKay and Rowena Duncum (again, I kid you not : ). I maybe expected Wailing/Gnashing..but there was a real feeling of National had no chance…so we went with the least harm option. And that was their theory anyway. Ok…I thought, see later and sure enough
Maybe…Its just the Farm Workers…and everyone else that ISN'T a Farmer actually liked Labour?
Edit…Dont know if anyone here remembers sir Key and his “Devil Beast” Analogy from years back. Maybe the rightie Farm types prefer a little less Beast with their Devil?
The red tide of party-vote-Labour in Southland came from the rural towns – the farmer vote is too small to count but the whipped-up hysteria did cause some southern farmers to vote Labour Party on the day! Good strategy, I say and if The Greens turn-down Labour's likely offer of a coalition, their influence will be higher, their long-term prospects brighter and the terror felt by the Federated Farmers of Southland, and regional councillor Eric Roy, greatly heightened. Good thing.
Aye. Fed Farmers…Militant Union.I wonder if the "She's a pretty Communist" feelings had to be Well Repressed. : )
Oh and also Queenstown…etc ; Huge Party Vote Labour. (I used to work as Builders Labour er years ago lol) I remember tryin to talk Workers/NZ Interests at smoko time… "are you a commie?”…Also where I got interested in Green…as some wank was happily talking how he had drill poisoned Trees. "You're not a man of the Trees are ya ?"
Had the election been held on 19 September instead of 17 October the Goldsmith $4b error would not have had such an influence on voters. I think the farming and business community looked at the ability of Robertson and Goldsmith.
Had the election been held on Sept 19 the result would have been worse for National polls were showing Labour at 50% plus.National had the wrong strategy wrong type of leadership Shane Reti would have been better.
National don't have nice people in their party .Dirty politics caught up with them after years of Denials all their chooks came home to roost.Scandal after Scandal showed how low National was prepared to go to gain power.Collins bullying and Bullshitting style went down like a cup of hot sick while she had an initial dead cat bounce,National reverted to simple Soimans perpetual whinging and crying Wolf. National supporters were not impressed with these low life politicians trying Trumpish tactics in the face of the biggest crisis since WW2.
Some random musings on vote-share comparisons between 2002 when the Nats got "Englished" and 2020 when the Nats got "Crushed":
In 2002 to the left of Labour there was also Jim Anderton (vote share 1.70%), and the Alliance (1.27%), as well as the Greens (7.00%)(although in 2002 the Greens flavour was somewhat more green compared the strong social activist flavour of 2020 Greens). This "lefter than Labour" vote share added up to 10% of the vote. In 2020, the "lefter than Labour" vote share is solely represented by the Greens on 7.57% (guess 8% after specials).
In 2002 there were two viable choices for more-or-less centrists that didn't want to choose between Labour and Nats. Winnie First (10.38%), and the Dunnys (6.69%). Between them they drew 17%. In 2020, there were vestigial WinnieFirst (2.7%) and TOP (1.4%) parties, adding up to 4% wasted centrist vote that probably won't vote Labour or Nat under any circumstances. For the sake of argument, let's infer there were 13% (17% – 4%) of centrist voters in 2002 amenable to voting Labour or Nat, but since there were viable centrist alternatives they chose those alternatives, but without those viable alternatives would have split 50/50 Lab/Nat and did so in 2020.
On the left, add up the "lefter than Labour", Labour, and "amenable centrists". In 2002 that came to 10% "ltL", 41.26% Lab, 6.5% "ac", for a total left vote share of 58%. In 2020, call it 8% "ltL" plus 49% Labour plus 0% "ac" for a total left vote share of 57%.
So in overall big picture left vs right terms, 2020 looks pretty similar to 2002 but without the fragmentation on the left.
Maybe there is a sea-change in progress, Eric Watson has been jailed in England for being an arsehole and hiding assets so that he didn't have to pay Owen Glenn for deceiving him on a dodgy deal. The times they are a-changing and arseholery is having it's day of reckoning.
These bloody colonials come from the wrong side of the sheet and don't rate for any ameliorating circumstances – like Eton etc. – the defrauding is just too harrowing.
That scumbag being imprisoned is an occasion for joy, like the equally good news that that filthy water polluter Nick Smith has been fired by the voters of Nelson. The high-minded and decent Adrian, who clearly shares this writer's euphoria, writes that this means "arseholery is having it's [sic] day of reckoning."
Really? In the United Kingdom, exactly what kind of person is running the Conservative Party and the Labour Party? Who are the people running the police and the judiciary?
Sadly, one lowlife shyster getting a small percentage of his just desserts does not mean that "arseholery" is in any danger.
Yeah Dr. Custard pissed me off because he smarmily pretended to be so reasonable and so green, when he was neither. But he was able to fool a lot of people.
At least you know where you are with Crusher (and A-hole Eric Watson).
For anyone vaguely interested in the US preznit election on a state by state basis, but not interested enough to go looking, here's a brief look at the state of current polling averages (reminder, 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win):
Biden is ahead by more than 5% in every state Clinton won (232 EC votes), plus Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10) and Nebraska 2nd district (1). These add up to 279 EC votes. That's enough more than 270 to survive a few faithless electors, but those three states are slow to count early and mail-in votes so are unlikely to declare a winner on election night. If it comes down to slow counts in those three states, expect mayhem.
Biden is also ahead by 2 to 3%ish in Arizona (11), North Carolina (15) and Florida (29). These states have good systems for counting early and mail-in votes so there's a good chance they will declare winners election night unless the margin is extremely close. Florida plus one other (plus Clinton states) is enough to go over 270. A clear election night victory for Biden in these states will likely deflate Il Douche's inevitable lies he lost because of cheating, so the likelihood of serious mayhem would go down.
Polling averages are within 1.5%ish in Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Georgia (16), Maine 2nd district (1), so call them true toss-ups.
If polling companies have waay over-corrected from their 2016 errors, then Texas (38 EC votes, 3.6% lean to Deranged Dotard) and Alaska (3 EC votes, 6% lean) are within Biden's reach.
There's going to be the inevitable cries of "but the 2016 polls were useless". Pollsters learn and adapt, and will have put a lot of effort into figuring out what they did poorly last time and made changes. Polling errors this time around are just as likely to be against Biden as for him.
This time around the polling averages are remarkably stable over time, with much fewer undecideds and no highly visible third parties. That contrasts with volatile polls in 2016, and Stein and that other guy also pulling variable support. The attempted smear campaigns against Biden are falling flat, rather than gaining traction like the ones against Hillary.
edit: if you find your way to RCPs 2020 vs 2016 comparison, check the full 2016 timeline before you panic:
Right now is equivalent to Hillary’s high point and Tinyfingers Twittertwat’s low point, between the pussygrabbing tape release, and Comey announcing the re-opening of the e-mails investigation.
I too like the 538 snake. Was interested in the lack of quality polls for Texas showing. Unlikely to flip I guess but it's the big haul of electoral votes.
If like me you live in central Auckland you can entertain yourself by going to the Domain and hopping from side to side, so you're crossing between New Zealand's most right-wing electorate and Aotearoa's most left-wing electorate.
Opportunities for domestic tourism here, maybe a drinks cart on the boundary, serving gin and tonics on the Epsom side or carrot juice on the other.
Fairly sure he is in ACT territory ? During lockdown Hoskings was praising MP David Seymour because of his assistance getting his daughter back to Australia to continue studies.
"Apparently, Collins’ concession speech was gracious and tearful, although I couldn’t really hear it because a drunk Leftie was hurling Samoan swear words at the screen. My wife promptly told me to stop swearing and sent me in the kitchen to make some tea."
Wouldn't the american election be so much more interesting if it were bernie up there slugging it out with trump..?..(sigh..!)…instead we have biden campaigning on the fact he isn't trump…it's all seriously underwhelming…
You aren't allowed to say that, because it shows: you don't understand the concept of 'electability', you are at best a useful idiot and at worst a closet Trump supporter, and (worst of all) you are denying 'agency' to all the Democratic primary voters who voted for Biden after having their agency denied by being told to vote for Biden. Even such a simple statement of Biden's self-evident uselessness and inadequacy for the horrendous task he will be faced with, is impermissible. Let's hope he wins though.
The Greek word for idiot, literally translated, means one who does not participate in politics. That sums up my conviction on the subject. Gladys Pyle d.1989 USA politician (and philosopher) http://www.picturequotes.com/
(She would know: Gladys Shields Pyle was an American politician and the first woman elected to the United States Senate without having previously been appointed to her position;
she was also the first female senator to serve as a Republican and the first female senator from South Dakota). Wikipedia
Yeah..nah…eh..?..to yr either/or..u CD b overthinking it…I was bemoaning on an intellectual/entertainment level…as bernie wd eviscerate the orange carbuncle..and I see you playing that 'electability' card…it's looking a bit tired/frayed around the edges..eh..?..that electability-card…as this election is clearly about trump vs the other person…and bernie would have been much more effective in that role than biden..and is yr playing of that tired piece of cardboard/anti-bernie trope an indicator that you could be some sort of neoliberal-incrementalism apologist..?
Something that is apparent to many Americans now, that may not have been during the primaries, is that simple competence in the skills needed for government actually do matter. And that those skills will be desperately needed from the moment the new prez sits down to work, after 4 (or 8) years of the tangerine toddler trashing everything he could get his bleached-white microscale creepy raccoon-paws on.
Biden demonstrably has those skills, in spades. Sanders' unblemished record of zero accomplishments of significance to show from his decades in government strongly suggests he does not possess those skills in governing.
You must be ignoring his record in his state..where he receives wide support…and this in a state that is resolutely republican…what his long record there shows is that he works for all people…and for the good of the whole community he served…it's one of the anomalies of the american political world…that widespread support for a self-avowing democratic socialist in a deeply conservative state….any claims bernie has no record of success ..are falsehoods…his actual record proves just the opposite…and as an aside..I know there are many in labour who are neoliberal-incrementalists..and they really need to realise that bankrupt ideology is past its' use by date…continuing that/those policies will doom us all to environmental self-destruction….it is the time for bold action….not a continuing of what came before…
Yankistanis have a mortal dread of the Socialism and would vote against a socialist if the opponent ran on a platform of beating a child to death in the main street of every town beofore lunch.
They have a mortal dread of the Socialism that benefits the poors.
The USDA has released a projection that net U.S. farm income will reach $102.7 billion this year. This would be a 23% increase from net farm income in 2019 and is the result of record farm subsidy payments that were meant to offset losses from COVID-19 and global trade disputes. Farm subsidies in 2020 are expected to total $37.2 billion, a 66% increase from 2019. The question now is if these payments will continue in 2021 if the commodity market does not fully recover from its current state.
More than a third of U.S. farm income in 2019 will come from the U.S. government in the form of the trade-war bailout, crop-insurance payouts and other federal assistance.
[…]
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects farm income to be $88 billion. Of that, $19.5 billion will come from direct farm-payment programs and another projected $10.5 billion will come from crop-insurance indemnities. Farmers help pay for federal crop insurance, but the premiums are more than 60% subsidized.
Wouldn't be wonderful if NZ politics has shifted in tone. Could Jacinda's unending kindness and courtesy rub off on other MPs? Is it possible that the people are sick of the aggressive bullying of leaders like Brownlee and Collins? Could cross party cooperation become a standard reality?
And within that new tone still get the job done and even get militant grumpy farmers to further develop positive repairs to our country.
Brilliant idea – NZ has no appetite to elect an extreme left or right government. So perhaps for starters Dr Reti could be given a health portfolio in formation of some grand coalition…
But Ad what do you think about the principle of inviting someone from the Opposition to have an input into a Government proposition? Climate Change for example?
I have had Shane Reti help me first hand . He was very proactive and he has a nice manner. It would be great if someone bringing valuable knowledge into Parliament was utilised for these skills. I really do not think his "politic " leanings would get in the way. I believe he just likes to help more than anything.
If they had unique skills that were not within the existing caucus … maybe.
I can't see the point of a Minister for Climate Change. It just Balkanises the whole issue rather than making it a whole-of-government requirement. Also they already have a Commission for it, and a functioning legislative regime for carbon.
Ministers need to focus on actual climate change consequences, such as rural fire and the insurance and planning issues, or transport and fuel issues, electricity and heat plant issues, water supply and reticulation issues, or home insulation and materials issues.
Generally if it's about everything it achieves nothing. As with poverty measures, Ministers need accountability frameworks that are Specific Measurable Accurate Rational and Timebound.
During the Leaders Debates it just seemed that Jacinda's positivity contrasted so sharply with the harshness of Judiths attempt to appear strong/tough, just might be the future. Of course journalists want/need for MPs to be tough/aggressive so there is something to write about. Maybe a matter of personal perspective but remembering how the Greens developed a reputation for parliamentary courtesy?
Janet We are talking about politics here, not just who has a nice manner when it suits him to be helpful to a patient. You refer to his 'politic' leanings, and believe he wants to help. I am interested in why he wants to get into politics and not stick with the very important medical profession, where he can help more people personally than in politics. It is people with ambition to drive policy in certain ways that enter politics and I wonder in which direction he would like to go?
Maybe REti could set up the border agency or build quarantine centres outside of Auckland, that many arm chair critics pontificated about since March…..
Dr Ayesha Verrall would outshine Dr Shane. Her review of contract tracing in NZ early in the pandemic, has likely saved lives, certainly lock down times…
But Chris H found REti constructive to work with, so it might be good to invite him to be involved.
BTW interesting that that arsehole Woodhouse held the Health Portfolio up until he was caught out receiving patient information…………..Then Dr Shane who was lowly ranked was given the port folio. WTF National?
He could maybe contribute by way of the select committee process couldn't he. Next election he could campaign on behalf of Labour. For Starters. Perhaps.
It is important to have strong informed voices on the opposition benches to ask questions about policy that is the best way for our parliamentary democracy to work.
Dr Komment says it is probably an incipient tumour in their brains, the signs of advancing dementia, or a slow aneurysm. Whatever I don't think they pass their medical and are not fit for purpose.
I've been looking at quotes – have some good ones to throw into the mix FTTT. Here's a goodie to sit under a thread about National.
George Orwell: “In our age there is no such thing as ‘keeping out of politics.’ All issues are political issues, and politics itself is a mass of lies, evasions, folly, hatred and schizophrenia.”
Ooooh, Gameshow Goering won't be happy. The debate commission changed the rules, so now the other dude's mic is off for the first two minutes of answering a question. The $750 Man also doesn't like the topics. I wonder if that combo will be enough to make the Great White Shart flounce and do his own thing.
He's not wearing a cap though! Seeing him in the brilliant unreality of the image I started to hallucinate.
At first I thought he was holding a skull (but it looks like a hamburger), and I thought of 'Alas poor Yorick I knew him well.' Then I thought of a modern Colossus of Roads. He really is a mythical figure – A legend in his own time. I wonder when that will end, will I last long enough to see the train crash?
Yes I was just echoing His Great Stupidness of muddling everything. And he isn't a patch on the real Colossus which was a wonder of the world. Trump just gets the world wondering…
Fudging the failure of neolib economics and freemarket shittery for decades, government has pulled most of us down the ladder so as to allow room for the fast-movers who are charitable to political parties the room to bypass the ordinary guys.
Now with all the immigration and false bonhomie about our great economy Auckland is stretched to the limit, can't find big enough jeans to fit around its bulging body. Has to limit freedoms to choose schools, is forced to bring in socialist-style planning to all the freedom loving hopeful-socially mobile residents in Auckland. And also to the immigrants working hard to fill gaps with their keen, unswerving determination to make a buck and a good life for themselves. Auckland has grown beyond the resources available to the central or local government – the leaders of the freemarket revolution have stuffed up big time resulting in citizens being worse off on average than if caution had prevailed, and smaller steps taken as needed by our economy.
"Due to large-scale growth in Auckland we need a co-ordinated and accelerated approach to optimising the Auckland school network," the documents said.
"Without the implementation or amendment of enrolment schemes in line with the Auckland growth plan, the demand and need for additional classrooms in Auckland would increase significantly; and the overall cost in additional property provision could run into the tens of millions of dollars.
This is one reason that we need more taxes: to pay for this boon to the government's apparent financial success, this surge of immigrants and businesses to Auckland, the hub of NZ behind which the rest of the country is just a Sancho Panza. But no governments have ever wanted to turn up and do their Don Quixote charge, no they contract that out. It is the sleazy modern way to not be fully physically engaged with your work, and its results, from go to whoa with full payoff.
Given that our Auckland population surge hasn't resulted in any great increase in GDP per head Auckland is simply a drain on the rest of the country. Don't know what it's like now but for decades it was pretty much an internal economy – production & consumption about equal. maybe we need a specific tax for Auckland so they pay for their own population rather than burdening the rest of the country. Plus some serious measures to move business rather more nationwide
Maybe National could re-think and start to divorce into a United Party and a Reform Party again. Or even a Country Party. I mean it hasn't hurt Australia really has it?
The Repugs have always been an uneasy coalition of groups that detest each other only slightly less than they detest Democrats. The Democratic party is exactly the same. FPP almost necessarily forces politics into that kind of two-party configuration.
The best we can hope for is the Repug internecine warfare is prolonged to the maximum and leaves deep scars so the recovery time is measured in generations rather than election cycles.
Here, though, National could easily do it and make it work out just fine for them. MMP, y'know.
Commentators are suggesting that, just as Bill English lead the National Party to a disastrous election in 2002, the Party bounced back to nearly win the next one. In their combined analysis they appear to forget that Brash, in his first year as party leader, delivered his infamous Orewa speech and ran the Iwi/Kiwi campaign and Rob's mob flocked back. Will it take a similar, singular issue again?
The victim’s ordeal included having his naked body burned with a blow torch, threats of castration, cigarettes stubbed out on his eyelids and beatings…
Liam Hourigan and Henry Enoka Kea were sentenced at the High Court in Auckland on Tuesday for their parts in the kidnapping and torture that only ended when the man rolled out of a moving car.
That is horrible. Who would think in NZ. 90% sure that family difficulties would be behind the violent attitudes. We need to have a better NZ that comes about from families having the help and advice they need. How to get them to adopt it – start off with young parents and workshops on what they need to know, tied into a family benefit payment that keeps them involved. Help them over their problems while enabling them to stand tall, be proud, and help to keep them away from the hard drugs, and of course legalise cannabis and treat problems as medical or minor criminal.
Australians are peculiar about NZ? Irrational? NZ has control of its Covid-19 and so entering Melbourne was a risk to NZ not to them. This NZ traveller says that there is anger about them coming though she had checked to ensure that she was following protocols. It does pay to be aware that our countries are different, just united by a common language, and fairly close geographically.
Storm in a beer-glass. Interesting that their local tipples include Victoria Bitter, Melbourne Bitter so they like a bite, though they also have Carlton Draught. The Premier was kind to the breweries after they suffered a big drop in sales at the beginning of the pandemic. Though not to Kiwis. So if you want to protest you could go past theirs and choose a friendly NZ beer.
Tens of thousands of Israelis calling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resign demonstrated across the country Saturday evening, saying he is unfit to rule while on trial for corruption charges and accusing him of mismanaging the nation’s coronavirus crisis.
Protesters gathered at hundreds of locations across the country due to a nationwide lockdown that has barred them from protesting at the usual site outside Netanyahu’s official residence in Jerusalem. The current lockdown regulations allow people only to gather within one kilometre of their home.
"Fauci, 79, is one of the most respected scientists in the United States and has served under Republican and Democratic presidents. He has been director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984."
But hey, what would he know?
Someone who knows…….SFA
"People are tired of Covid," Trump said. "People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.
"Fauci is a disaster. If I listened to him, we'd have 500,000 deaths," Trump said.
"It’s been of late a tight run race (Auckland Central) and this time will be no different.The second and much more interesting bit is that Chloe Swarbrick won’t win it."
Hosking this morning after I accidentally bumped into him on radio. On John Key: "One of the great political leaders of the age."
Hosking will be like a pig in muck. There won't have to be muck, he will create it and he will be so happy with three more years for swilling.
There are times when movement around us seems to slow down. And the faster things get, the slower it all appears.And so it is with the whirlwind of early year political activity.They are harbingers for what is to come:Video: Wayne Wright Jnr, funder of Sean Plunket, talk growing power and ...
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..I/We wish to make the following comments:I oppose the Treaty Principles Bill."5. Act binds the CrownThis Act binds the Crown."How does this Act "bind the Crown" when Te Tiriti o Waitangi, which the Act refers to, has been violated by the Crown on numerous occassions, resulting in massive loss of ...
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Submissions on National's racist, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill are due tomorrow! So today, after a good long holiday from all that bullshit, I finally got my shit together to submit on it. As I noted here, people should write their own submissions in their own ...
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Hi,The thing that stood out at me while shopping for Christmas presents in New Zealand was how hard it was to avoid Zuru products. Toy manufacturer Zuru is a bit like Netflix, in that it has so much data on what people want they can flood the market with so ...
And when a child is born into this worldIt has no conceptOf the tone of skin it's living inAnd there's a million voicesAnd there's a million voicesTo tell you what you should be thinkingSong by Neneh Cherry and Youssou N'Dour.The moment you see that face, you can hear her voice; ...
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A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 22, 2024 thru Sat, December 28, 2024. This week's roundup is the second one published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, ...
We’ll have a climate change ChristmasFrom now until foreverWarming our hearts and mindsAnd planet all togetherSpirits high and oceans higherChestnuts roast on wildfiresIf coal is on your wishlistMerry Climate Change ChristmasSong by Ian McConnellReindeer emissions are not something I’d thought about in terms of climate change. I guess some significant ...
KP continues to putt-putt along as a tiny niche blog that offers a NZ perspective on international affairs with a few observations about NZ domestic politics thrown in. In 2024 there was also some personal posts given that my son was in the last four months of a nine month ...
I can see very wellThere's a boat on the reef with a broken backAnd I can see it very wellThere's a joke and I know it very wellIt's one of those that I told you long agoTake my word I'm a madman, don't you knowSongwriters: Bernie Taupin / Elton JohnIt ...
.Acknowledgement: Tim PrebbleThanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work..With each passing day of bad headlines, squandering tax revenue to enrich the rich, deep cuts to our social services and a government struggling to keep the lipstick on its neo-liberal pig ...
This is from the 36th Parallel social media account (as brief food for thought). We know that Trump is ahistorical at best but he seems to think that he is Teddy Roosevelt and can use the threat of invoking the Monroe Doctrine and “Big Stick” gunboat diplomacy against Panama and ...
Don't you cry tonightI still love you, babyAnd don't you cry tonightDon't you cry tonightThere's a heaven above you, babyAnd don't you cry tonightSong: Axl Rose and Izzy Stradlin“Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so”, said possibly the greatest philosopher ever to walk this earth, Douglas Adams.We have entered the ...
Because you're magicYou're magic people to meSong: Dave Para/Molly Para.Morena all, I hope you had a good day yesterday, however you spent it. Today, a few words about our celebration and a look at the various messages from our politicians.A Rockel XmasChristmas morning was spent with the five of us ...
This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). 2024 has been a series of bad news for climate change. From scorching global temperatures leading to devastating ...
Ríu Ríu ChíuRíu Ríu Chíu is a Spanish Christmas song from the 16th Century. The traditional carol would likely have passed unnoticed by the English-speaking world had the made-for-television American band The Monkees not performed the song as part of their special Christmas show back in 1967. The show's ...
Dunedin’s summer thus far has been warm and humid… and it looks like we’re in for a grey Christmas. But it is now officially Christmas Day in this time zone, so never mind. This year, I’ve stumbled across an Old English version of God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen: It has a population of just under 3.5 million inhabitants, produces nearly 550,000 tons of beef per year, and boasts a glorious soccer reputation with two World ...
Morena all,In my paywalled newsletter yesterday, I signed off for Christmas and wished readers well, but I thought I’d send everyone a quick note this morning.This hasn’t been a good year for our small country. The divisions caused by the Treaty Principles Bill, the cuts to our public sector, increased ...
This morning’s six standouts for me at 6.30 am include:Kāinga Ora is quietly planning to sell over $1 billion worth of state-owned land under 300 state homes in Auckland’s wealthiest suburbs, including around Bastion Point, to give the Government more fiscal room to pay for tax cuts and reduce borrowing.A ...
Hi,It’s my birthday on Christmas Day, and I have a favour to ask.A birthday wish.I would love you to share one Webworm story you’ve liked this year.The simple fact is: apart from paying for a Webworm membership (thank you!), sharing and telling others about this place is the most important ...
The last few days have been a bit too much of a whirl for me to manage a fresh edition each day. It's been that kind of year. Hope you don't mind.I’ve been coming around to thinking that it doesn't really matter if you don't have something to say every ...
The worms will live in every hostIt's hard to pick which one they eat the mostThe horrible people, the horrible peopleIt's as anatomic as the size of your steepleCapitalism has made it this wayOld-fashioned fascism will take it awaySongwriter: Twiggy Ramirez Read more ...
Hi,It’s almost Christmas Day which means it is almost my birthday, where you will find me whimpering in the corner clutching a warm bottle of Baileys.If you’re out of ideas for presents (and truly desperate) then it is possible to gift a full Webworm subscription to a friend (or enemy) ...
This morning’s six standouts for me at 6.30am include:Rachel Helyer Donaldson’s scoop via RNZ last night of cuts to maternity jobs in the health system;Maddy Croad’s scoop via The Press-$ this morning on funding cuts for Christchurch’s biggest food rescue charity;Benedict Collins’ scoop last night via 1News on a last-minute ...
A listing of 25 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 15, 2024 thru Sat, December 21, 2024. Based on feedback we received, this week's roundup is the first one published soleley by category. We are still interested in ...
Well, I've been there, sitting in that same chairWhispering that same prayer half a million timesIt's a lie, though buried in disciplesOne page of the Bible isn't worth a lifeThere's nothing wrong with youIt's true, it's trueThere's something wrong with the villageWith the villageSomething wrong with the villageSongwriters: Andrew Jackson ...
ACT would like to dictate what universities can and can’t say. We knew it was coming. It was outlined in the coalition agreement and has become part of Seymour’s strategy of “emphasising public funding” to prevent people from opposing him and his views—something he also uses to try and de-platform ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with members from our team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Are we heading ...
So the Solstice has arrived – Summer in this part of the world, Winter for the Northern Hemisphere. And with it, the publication my new Norse dark-fantasy piece, As Our Power Lessens at Eternal Haunted Summer: https://eternalhauntedsummer.com/issues/winter-solstice-2024/as-our-power-lessens/ As previously noted, this one is very ‘wyrd’, and Northern Theory of Courage. ...
The Natural Choice: As a starter for ten percent of the Party Vote, “saving the planet” is a very respectable objective. Young voters, in particular, raised on the dire (if unheeded) warnings of climate scientists, and the irrefutable evidence of devastating weather events linked to global warming, vote Green. After ...
The Government cancelled 60% of Kāinga Ora’s new builds next year, even though the land for them was already bought, the consents were consented and there are builders unemployed all over the place. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political ...
Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on UnsplashEvery morning I get up at 3am to go around the traps of news sites in Aotearoa and globally. I pick out the top ones from my point of view and have been putting them into my Dawn Chorus email, which goes out with a podcast. ...
Over on Kikorangi Newsroom's Marc Daalder has published his annual OIA stats. So I thought I'd do mine: 82 OIA requests sent in 2024 7 posts based on those requests 20 average working days to receive a response Ministry of Justice was my most-requested entity, ...
Welcome to the December 2024 Economic Bulletin. We have two monthly features in this edition. In the first, we discuss what the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update from Treasury and the Budget Policy Statement from the Minister of Finance tell us about the fiscal position and what to ...
The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi have submitted against the controversial Treaty Principles Bill, slamming the Bill as a breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi and an attack on tino rangatiratanga and the collective rights of Tangata Whenua. “This Bill seeks to legislate for Te Tiriti o Waitangi principles that are ...
Open access notables An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment:Tracking the energy balance of the Earth system is a key method for studying the contribution of human activities to climate change. However, accurately estimating the surface energy balance ...
I don't knowHow to say what's got to be saidI don't know if it's black or whiteThere's others see it redI don't get the answers rightI'll leave that to youIs this love out of fashionOr is it the time of yearAre these words distraction?To the words you want to hearSongwriters: ...
National has only been in power for a year, but everywhere you look, its choices are taking New Zealand a long way backwards. In no particular order, here are the National Government's Top 50 Greatest Misses of its first year in power. ...
The Government is quietly undertaking consultation on the dangerous Regulatory Standards Bill over the Christmas period to avoid too much attention. ...
The time it takes to process building determinations has improved significantly over the last year which means fewer delays in homes being built, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “New Zealand has a persistent shortage of houses. Making it easier and quicker for new homes to be built will ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is pleased to announce the annual list of New Zealand’s most popular baby names for 2024. “For the second consecutive year, Noah has claimed the top spot for boys with 250 babies sharing the name, while Isla has returned to the most popular ...
Work is set to get underway on a new bus station at Westgate this week. A contract has been awarded to HEB Construction to start a package of enabling works to get the site ready in advance of main construction beginning in mid-2025, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“A new Westgate ...
Minister for Children and for Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence Karen Chhour is encouraging people to use the resources available to them to get help, and to report instances of family and sexual violence amongst their friends, families, and loved ones who are in need. “The death of a ...
Uia te pō, rangahaua te pō, whakamāramatia mai he aha tō tango, he aha tō kāwhaki? Whitirere ki te ao, tirotiro kau au, kei hea taku rātā whakamarumaru i te au o te pakanga mo te mana motuhake? Au te pō, ngū te pō, ue hā! E te kahurangi māreikura, ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says people with diabetes and other painful conditions will benefit from a significant new qualification to boost training in foot care. “It sounds simple, but quality and regular foot and nail care is vital in preventing potentially serious complications from diabetes, like blisters or sores, which can take a long time to heal ...
Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour is pleased to see Pharmac continue to increase availability of medicines for Kiwis with the government’s largest ever investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the government,” says Mr Seymour. “When this government assumed ...
Mā mua ka kite a muri, mā muri ka ora e mua - Those who lead give sight to those who follow, those who follow give life to those who lead. Māori recipients in the New Year 2025 Honours list show comprehensive dedication to improving communities across the motu that ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is wishing all New Zealanders a great holiday season as Kiwis prepare for gatherings with friends and families to see in the New Year. It is a great time of year to remind everyone to stay fire safe over the summer. “I know ...
From 1 January 2025, first-time tertiary learners will have access to a new Fees Free entitlement of up to $12,000 for their final year of provider-based study or final two years of work-based learning, Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds says. “Targeting funding to the final year of study ...
“As we head into one of the busiest times of the year for Police, and family violence and sexual violence response services, it’s a good time to remind everyone what to do if they experience violence or are worried about others,” Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence ...
Kiwis planning a swim or heading out on a boat this summer should remember to stop and think about water safety, Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop and ACC and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “New Zealand’s beaches, lakes and rivers are some of the most beautiful in the ...
The Government is urging Kiwis to drive safely this summer and reminding motorists that Police will be out in force to enforce the road rules, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“This time of year can be stressful and result in poor decision-making on our roads. Whether you are travelling to see ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says Health New Zealand will move swiftly to support dozens of internationally-trained doctors already in New Zealand on their journey to employment here, after a tripling of sought-after examination places. “The Medical Council has delivered great news for hardworking overseas doctors who want to contribute ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has appointed Sarah Ottrey to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). “At my first APEC Summit in Lima, I experienced firsthand the role that ABAC plays in guaranteeing political leaders hear the voice of business,” Mr Luxon says. “New Zealand’s ABAC representatives are very well respected and ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced four appointments to New Zealand’s intelligence oversight functions. The Honourable Robert Dobson KC has been appointed Chief Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants, and the Honourable Brendan Brown KC has been appointed as a Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants. The appointments of Hon Robert Dobson and Hon ...
Improvements in the average time it takes to process survey and title applications means housing developments can progress more quickly, Minister for Land Information Chris Penk says. “The government is resolutely focused on improving the building and construction pipeline,” Mr Penk says. “Applications to issue titles and subdivide land are ...
The Government’s measures to reduce airport wait times, and better transparency around flight disruptions is delivering encouraging early results for passengers ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Improving the efficiency of air travel is a priority for the Government to give passengers a smoother, more reliable ...
The Government today announced the intended closure of the Apollo Hotel as Contracted Emergency Housing (CEH) in Rotorua, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. This follows a 30 per cent reduction in the number of households in CEH in Rotorua since National came into Government. “Our focus is on ending CEH in the Whakarewarewa area starting ...
The Government will reshape vocational education and training to return decision making to regions and enable greater industry input into work-based learning Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds says. “The redesigned system will better meet the needs of learners, industry, and the economy. It includes re-establishing regional polytechnics that ...
The Government is taking action to better manage synthetic refrigerants and reduce emissions caused by greenhouse gases found in heating and cooling products, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds says. “Regulations will be drafted to support a product stewardship scheme for synthetic refrigerants, Ms. Simmonds says. “Synthetic refrigerants are found in a ...
People travelling on State Highway 1 north of Hamilton will be relieved that remedial works and safety improvements on the Ngāruawāhia section of the Waikato Expressway were finished today, with all lanes now open to traffic, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“I would like to acknowledge the patience of road users ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ashish Kumar, Senior Lecturer, RMIT University Przemek Klos/Shutterstock Once, borrowing money to make a purchase was a relatively tedious process, not a spur-of-the-moment thing. True, some stores offered lay-by plans that would let you pay for goods in instalments. But ...
Optimism can sometimes feel in short supply for observers of international relations.With high-profile wars in Ukraine and Gaza (not to mention lesser-heralded conflicts in Myanmar, Sudan and western Africa), ongoing tensions between rival superpowers China and the United States, and a swell of populist and protectionist sentiment, there are no ...
In December 2023 I had what now appears to have been a brain seizure. This was followed some months later by three TIAs (mini strokes). Then I had a stroke and after superb diagnosis at Christchurch Hospital I was admitted to Burwood Hospital unable to stand or walk. I had another brain seizure six ...
Opinion: The number of satellites and other objects sent into Earth’s orbit is increasing like never before. Before space ends up awash with debris like the ocean, scientists are calling for global agreements to protect orbital space.The United States and China are in a space race, sending thousands of satellites into ...
Opinion: Much of my year is spent with academics and policymakers, talking about shifting tectonics across Asia and how New Zealand is responding to changes in demographics, political and economic order, technology, regional security and so on.But one item sometimes left off the list is the immense contribution our sportspeople ...
Summer reissue: The capital’s best chefs and restaurateurs share their favourite local eateries and hidden gems. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member today. I have ...
Summer reissue: Shanti Mathias visits and ranks the crème de la crème of Auckland’s secondhand bookshops. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member today.From Ponsonby ...
Summer reissue: Ban all fireworks. Give everyone fireworks. Rewrite the national anthem. Stop politicians blocking me on social media: parliament’s online petitions page is a trip inside the nation’s raw, unfiltered political id. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds ...
People have expressed frustration and outrage this week, after persisent technical issues stopped them from submitting on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...
Summer reissue: What does a forever relationship look like when you don’t believe in marriage? And how do you celebrate it? The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be ...
Summer reissue: Some of the most passionate consumers of anti-ageing skincare are children. How did the beauty industry get under their skin? The Spinoff Cover Story is our premier long-form feature offering, made with the generous support of our members. Read our other cover stories here. It’s Mother’s Day ...
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – REVIEW: By David Robie Three months ago, a group of lawyers in Aotearoa New Zealand called for a first-of-its-kind inquiry into New Zealand spy agencies over whether they have been helping Israel’s war in Gaza. In a letter to the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ned Watt, PhD Candidate, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology Meta has announced it will abandon its fact-checking program, starting in the United States. It was aimed at preventing the spread of online lies among more than 3 billion people ...
The large number of New Zealanders sharing their thoughts on the Bill means that the select committee needs to take the appropriate time to process all submissions and not be tempted to arbitrarily dismiss submissions that have come via a third ...
Despite recent footage revealing extreme cruelty and violence, the wool industry has failed to stop this rampant abuse, even on so-called “sustainable” and “responsible” farms. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Clark, Professor in Public History, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock/Nils Versemann From the Torres Strait to Tasmania, and from the east coast to the west, beach shacks are an iconic part of Australian coastal history. Beach shacks have a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christine Carson, Senior Research Fellow, School of Medicine, The University of Western Australia Kaboompics.com/Pexels A doctor’s visit often ends with you leaving with a pathology request form in hand. The request form soon has you filling a sample pot, having blood ...
Over half a million dollars has been wasted by one government department alone teaching bureaucrats how to use a desk and chair, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager James Ross said. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rossana Ruggeri, Lecturer and ARC DECRA Fellow, The University of Queensland An illustration of the death of a massive star.NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Dana Berry By looking at light from distant exploding stars called supernovas, in 1998 astronomers discovered the universe isn’t ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Clark, Professor in Public History, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock/Nils Versemann From the Torres Strait to Tasmania, and from the east coast to the west, beach shacks are an iconic part of Australian coastal history. Beach shacks have a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Davis, Industry Professor of Emerging Technology and Co-Director, Human Technology Institute, University of Technology Sydney Oselote/Shutterstock In November 2023, the estates of two now-deceased policyholders sued the US health insurer, United Healthcare, for deploying what they allege is a flawed ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caroline Spry, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Department of Archaeology and History, La Trobe University Earth ring on Wurundjeri Woi-wurrung Country, near Sunbury, Victoria.David Mullins On the outskirts of Melbourne, Australia, there is a series of large rings which rise mysteriously out ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kylie Message, Professor of Public Humanities and Director of the ANU Humanities Research Centre, Australian National University National Museum of Australia Pompeii: Inside a Lost City at the National Museum of Australia in Canberra depicts life in the flourishing Roman city ...
Complaints have poured in from people who say they couldn't get their submission in because of problems with the website, and parties are weighing in. ...
The chorus of praise for Turia underscores the fact that TPM does not represent any real alternative to the political establishment. It is a right-wing party that for the past two decades has represented the interests of indigenous capitalists, who ...
“This is a massive project,” says Stephen Horn, of a plan to eradicate introduced pests from Auckland Island/Maukahuka. The manager of the Department of Conservation’s national eradication team says that’s something a feasibility project, published in 2021, unearthed – “that the scale is enormous, and it’s complex”.The scale and complexity ...
Opinion: Let’s face it. Sitting on a beach or by the lake with a dry text on economic theory is hardly what you would describe as compelling summer reading, perhaps except if you happen to be the Reserve Bank governor!For the rest of us, economics is probably off our holiday ...
Analysis: According to three vital global metrics for ocean temperatures, 2024 was the warmest year on record. The coincidence of all three global metrics being highest on record is unusual. The last time was 2016. The three metrics are the global mean surface temperature (GMST), the global sea surface temperatures (SST), ...
Summer reissue: Simon Palenski journeys home to fossick through Ōtautahi’s secondhand bookshops offerings. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member today.After finishing undergraduate studies and ...
Summer reissue: Checkered Flag director Natalie Wilson on her lifelong love of motorsport, and the allure of Pukekohe Park Raceway. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a ...
"The Greens have an agenda to decimate New Zealand farming if any of their policies are implemented," he said.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/428684/farmers-want-labour-to-govern-alone-fed-farmers
Really?!
Anyway…listening to "The Country" Radio show, with Jamie McKay and Rowena Duncum (again, I kid you not : ). I maybe expected Wailing/Gnashing..but there was a real feeling of National had no chance…so we went with the least harm option. And that was their theory anyway. Ok…I thought, see later and sure enough
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/123134716/strategic-voting-thought-to-give-labour-the-edge-in-southland
Maybe…Its just the Farm Workers…and everyone else that ISN'T a Farmer actually liked Labour?
Edit…Dont know if anyone here remembers sir Key and his “Devil Beast” Analogy from years back. Maybe the rightie Farm types prefer a little less Beast with their Devil?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/green-leader-tears-into-smiling-key/D3L2T4LIBWDP4T5AS6QWZCSVXE/
Anyway….Best of for Labour/Greens !!
The red tide of party-vote-Labour in Southland came from the rural towns – the farmer vote is too small to count but the whipped-up hysteria did cause some southern farmers to vote Labour Party on the day! Good strategy, I say and if The Greens turn-down Labour's likely offer of a coalition, their influence will be higher, their long-term prospects brighter and the terror felt by the Federated Farmers of Southland, and regional councillor Eric Roy, greatly heightened. Good thing.
Aye. Fed Farmers…Militant Union.I wonder if the "She's a pretty Communist" feelings had to be Well Repressed. : )
Oh and also Queenstown…etc ; Huge Party Vote Labour. (I used to work as Builders Labour er years ago lol) I remember tryin to talk Workers/NZ Interests at smoko time… "are you a commie?”…Also where I got interested in Green…as some wank was happily talking how he had drill poisoned Trees. "You're not a man of the Trees are ya ?"
Hmmm. gotta laugh and….. Activate.
I think the "National supporters voted tactically for Labour" argument is bollocks.
I think they liked Jacinda, especially what she had done re Covid, and didn't see her as a threat to farming, which is entirely different.
" I think the "National supporters voted tactically for Labour" argument is bollocks. "
I agree. I'm sure a handful did, but barely enough to matter.
Since when did any votes belong to any party?
Back in the 40s the voters didn't belong to Labour.
In the 70s the votes didn't belong to National
In the 80s the votes didn't belong to Labour
in the 90s the votes didn't belong to National … et cetera
And in 2020 none of the votes belonged to National.
Had the election been held on 19 September instead of 17 October the Goldsmith $4b error would not have had such an influence on voters. I think the farming and business community looked at the ability of Robertson and Goldsmith.
Had the election been held on Sept 19 the result would have been worse for National polls were showing Labour at 50% plus.National had the wrong strategy wrong type of leadership Shane Reti would have been better.
National don't have nice people in their party .Dirty politics caught up with them after years of Denials all their chooks came home to roost.Scandal after Scandal showed how low National was prepared to go to gain power.Collins bullying and Bullshitting style went down like a cup of hot sick while she had an initial dead cat bounce,National reverted to simple Soimans perpetual whinging and crying Wolf. National supporters were not impressed with these low life politicians trying Trumpish tactics in the face of the biggest crisis since WW2.
Elections are won on trust and good policy.
No way of finding out if farmers and the business community changed their vote between 19 September and 17 October.
Innovative.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428677/greens-signal-innovative-ways-of-partnering-with-labour
(I like the Bike in the background : )
edit…And the ladder ! : )
Some random musings on vote-share comparisons between 2002 when the Nats got "Englished" and 2020 when the Nats got "Crushed":
In 2002 to the left of Labour there was also Jim Anderton (vote share 1.70%), and the Alliance (1.27%), as well as the Greens (7.00%)(although in 2002 the Greens flavour was somewhat more green compared the strong social activist flavour of 2020 Greens). This "lefter than Labour" vote share added up to 10% of the vote. In 2020, the "lefter than Labour" vote share is solely represented by the Greens on 7.57% (guess 8% after specials).
In 2002 there were two viable choices for more-or-less centrists that didn't want to choose between Labour and Nats. Winnie First (10.38%), and the Dunnys (6.69%). Between them they drew 17%. In 2020, there were vestigial WinnieFirst (2.7%) and TOP (1.4%) parties, adding up to 4% wasted centrist vote that probably won't vote Labour or Nat under any circumstances. For the sake of argument, let's infer there were 13% (17% – 4%) of centrist voters in 2002 amenable to voting Labour or Nat, but since there were viable centrist alternatives they chose those alternatives, but without those viable alternatives would have split 50/50 Lab/Nat and did so in 2020.
On the left, add up the "lefter than Labour", Labour, and "amenable centrists". In 2002 that came to 10% "ltL", 41.26% Lab, 6.5% "ac", for a total left vote share of 58%. In 2020, call it 8% "ltL" plus 49% Labour plus 0% "ac" for a total left vote share of 57%.
So in overall big picture left vs right terms, 2020 looks pretty similar to 2002 but without the fragmentation on the left.
But Andre, the concentration at the end of the campaign on the Green's Wealth Tax actually won them more votes. Makes you think doesn't it?
Maybe there is a sea-change in progress, Eric Watson has been jailed in England for being an arsehole and hiding assets so that he didn't have to pay Owen Glenn for deceiving him on a dodgy deal. The times they are a-changing and arseholery is having it's day of reckoning.
Poor Eric. An Etonian arsehole would have been believed when he claimed poverty or Alzheimers.
These bloody colonials come from the wrong side of the sheet and don't rate for any ameliorating circumstances – like Eton etc. – the defrauding is just too harrowing.
ha ha ha Gabby. Love ya humour!
"Eric Watson has been jailed in England for being an arsehole"…I love it.
Somebody should put in a members bill to change the law in NZ to make that an offence here too.
I'm thinking Hosking….(feel free to add names)
Hotchin
First time ever I read Hoskings after the election after a headline which included the word landslide….
Interesting how bias works. He focussed on Chole's win. Then rabbited on about how did Tamati and Helen White manage to lose in a Labour Landside……..
Seems possible Hoskings prefers the Greens over Labour.
Ps the one and only time I will read him. He's a tosser.
That scumbag being imprisoned is an occasion for joy, like the equally good news that that filthy water polluter Nick Smith has been fired by the voters of Nelson. The high-minded and decent Adrian, who clearly shares this writer's euphoria, writes that this means "arseholery is having it's [sic] day of reckoning."
Really? In the United Kingdom, exactly what kind of person is running the Conservative Party and the Labour Party? Who are the people running the police and the judiciary?
Sadly, one lowlife shyster getting a small percentage of his just desserts does not mean that "arseholery" is in any danger.
Yeah Dr. Custard pissed me off because he smarmily pretended to be so reasonable and so green, when he was neither. But he was able to fool a lot of people.
At least you know where you are with Crusher (and A-hole Eric Watson).
He was jailed for contempt of court. I assume, though I could be wrong, that he defied a court order to account for his assets.
For anyone vaguely interested in the US preznit election on a state by state basis, but not interested enough to go looking, here's a brief look at the state of current polling averages (reminder, 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win):
Biden is ahead by more than 5% in every state Clinton won (232 EC votes), plus Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10) and Nebraska 2nd district (1). These add up to 279 EC votes. That's enough more than 270 to survive a few faithless electors, but those three states are slow to count early and mail-in votes so are unlikely to declare a winner on election night. If it comes down to slow counts in those three states, expect mayhem.
Biden is also ahead by 2 to 3%ish in Arizona (11), North Carolina (15) and Florida (29). These states have good systems for counting early and mail-in votes so there's a good chance they will declare winners election night unless the margin is extremely close. Florida plus one other (plus Clinton states) is enough to go over 270. A clear election night victory for Biden in these states will likely deflate Il Douche's inevitable lies he lost because of cheating, so the likelihood of serious mayhem would go down.
Polling averages are within 1.5%ish in Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Georgia (16), Maine 2nd district (1), so call them true toss-ups.
If polling companies have waay over-corrected from their 2016 errors, then Texas (38 EC votes, 3.6% lean to Deranged Dotard) and Alaska (3 EC votes, 6% lean) are within Biden's reach.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/ (pie charts of state polling averages)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ (good "snake chart" showing their state by state forecast)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ (for the pessimists that prefer to look at somewhat Repug-biased polling averages)
There's going to be the inevitable cries of "but the 2016 polls were useless". Pollsters learn and adapt, and will have put a lot of effort into figuring out what they did poorly last time and made changes. Polling errors this time around are just as likely to be against Biden as for him.
This time around the polling averages are remarkably stable over time, with much fewer undecideds and no highly visible third parties. That contrasts with volatile polls in 2016, and Stein and that other guy also pulling variable support. The attempted smear campaigns against Biden are falling flat, rather than gaining traction like the ones against Hillary.
edit: if you find your way to RCPs 2020 vs 2016 comparison, check the full 2016 timeline before you panic:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Right now is equivalent to Hillary’s high point and Tinyfingers Twittertwat’s low point, between the pussygrabbing tape release, and Comey announcing the re-opening of the e-mails investigation.
We're booked for the Democratic Party night with the Dems in Auckland.
Another night of happy screaming to come 😊
Enjoy Ad, these moments in life are to be savoured. (forgive the pun)
Hehehehehe 🙂 You will have such a good night Ad. I've taken the day off work to enjoy the take down of trump.
Thanks for the info Andre.
C'mon Harrison! Take him out!
I too like the 538 snake. Was interested in the lack of quality polls for Texas showing. Unlikely to flip I guess but it's the big haul of electoral votes.
If like me you live in central Auckland you can entertain yourself by going to the Domain and hopping from side to side, so you're crossing between New Zealand's most right-wing electorate and Aotearoa's most left-wing electorate.
Opportunities for domestic tourism here, maybe a drinks cart on the boundary, serving gin and tonics on the Epsom side or carrot juice on the other.
It would never have occurred to me that that might be entertaining.
On second thought, I still don't see the attraction.
You are too wedded to USA politics Andre to understand the nature of our small political joys and fancies.
Sounds like ground zero for the impending school zone war, as Old Boys lawyer up to protect their proprty investments.
I'd expect the G&T and the carrot juice to be similarly expensive.
on a related note, is chloe ,now hoskings local m.p.?
Fairly sure he is in ACT territory ? During lockdown Hoskings was praising MP David Seymour because of his assistance getting his daughter back to Australia to continue studies.
Surely us lefties can still drink G and T.!!!!!!!
According to David S there are two vegetarians in ACT! Strike me down with a feather.
Leaf, rather.
Yup, the mascot and the office hamster.
Which one is gonna go Rabbit of Caerbannog on them when the going gets tough?
Love it!! Lol Could be a fund raiser.
Teleport please that sounds like a hoot.
"Apparently, Collins’ concession speech was gracious and tearful, although I couldn’t really hear it because a drunk Leftie was hurling Samoan swear words at the screen. My wife promptly told me to stop swearing and sent me in the kitchen to make some tea."
Dave Armstrong
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/123137492/election-2020-a-bit-of-swearing-but-no-sausage-rolls-were-thrown
Wouldn't the american election be so much more interesting if it were bernie up there slugging it out with trump..?..(sigh..!)…instead we have biden campaigning on the fact he isn't trump…it's all seriously underwhelming…
You aren't allowed to say that, because it shows: you don't understand the concept of 'electability', you are at best a useful idiot and at worst a closet Trump supporter, and (worst of all) you are denying 'agency' to all the Democratic primary voters who voted for Biden after having their agency denied by being told to vote for Biden. Even such a simple statement of Biden's self-evident uselessness and inadequacy for the horrendous task he will be faced with, is impermissible. Let's hope he wins though.
I found a good quote that has relevance here.
Yeah..nah…eh..?..to yr either/or..u CD b overthinking it…I was bemoaning on an intellectual/entertainment level…as bernie wd eviscerate the orange carbuncle..and I see you playing that 'electability' card…it's looking a bit tired/frayed around the edges..eh..?..that electability-card…as this election is clearly about trump vs the other person…and bernie would have been much more effective in that role than biden..and is yr playing of that tired piece of cardboard/anti-bernie trope an indicator that you could be some sort of neoliberal-incrementalism apologist..?
Something that is apparent to many Americans now, that may not have been during the primaries, is that simple competence in the skills needed for government actually do matter. And that those skills will be desperately needed from the moment the new prez sits down to work, after 4 (or 8) years of the tangerine toddler trashing everything he could get his bleached-white microscale creepy raccoon-paws on.
Biden demonstrably has those skills, in spades. Sanders' unblemished record of zero accomplishments of significance to show from his decades in government strongly suggests he does not possess those skills in governing.
You must be ignoring his record in his state..where he receives wide support…and this in a state that is resolutely republican…what his long record there shows is that he works for all people…and for the good of the whole community he served…it's one of the anomalies of the american political world…that widespread support for a self-avowing democratic socialist in a deeply conservative state….any claims bernie has no record of success ..are falsehoods…his actual record proves just the opposite…and as an aside..I know there are many in labour who are neoliberal-incrementalists..and they really need to realise that bankrupt ideology is past its' use by date…continuing that/those policies will doom us all to environmental self-destruction….it is the time for bold action….not a continuing of what came before…
Trending blue for 30 plus years ain't a resolutely republican state.
/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Vermont
Point taken..I should have said 'his long-term/widespread support from resolute Republicans in his home state' etc..etc..
Yankistanis have a mortal dread of the Socialism and would vote against a socialist if the opponent ran on a platform of beating a child to death in the main street of every town beofore lunch.
They have a mortal dread of the Socialism that benefits the poors.
The USDA has released a projection that net U.S. farm income will reach $102.7 billion this year. This would be a 23% increase from net farm income in 2019 and is the result of record farm subsidy payments that were meant to offset losses from COVID-19 and global trade disputes. Farm subsidies in 2020 are expected to total $37.2 billion, a 66% increase from 2019. The question now is if these payments will continue in 2021 if the commodity market does not fully recover from its current state.
https://www.leadertelegram.com/country-today/markets/market-columns/farm-income-to-rise-subsidies-beneficial/article_5a0e4d87-7b80-5ea8-b002-03273ff3ae3d.html
More than a third of U.S. farm income in 2019 will come from the U.S. government in the form of the trade-war bailout, crop-insurance payouts and other federal assistance.
[…]
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects farm income to be $88 billion. Of that, $19.5 billion will come from direct farm-payment programs and another projected $10.5 billion will come from crop-insurance indemnities. Farmers help pay for federal crop insurance, but the premiums are more than 60% subsidized.
https://www.startribune.com/more-than-a-third-of-u-s-farm-income-in-2019-will-come-from-the-government/564525932/
Yankistanis … ROFL !!!
Wouldn't be wonderful if NZ politics has shifted in tone. Could Jacinda's unending kindness and courtesy rub off on other MPs? Is it possible that the people are sick of the aggressive bullying of leaders like Brownlee and Collins? Could cross party cooperation become a standard reality?
And within that new tone still get the job done and even get militant grumpy farmers to further develop positive repairs to our country.
Brilliant idea – NZ has no appetite to elect an extreme left or right government. So perhaps for starters Dr Reti could be given a health portfolio in formation of some grand coalition…
🙂
Dr Reti needs to survive the Specials first.
And Labour has a 2020 intake replete with doctors and epidemiologists who are better than Reti
Reti chose the wrong team, and for that choice will shortly return to prescribing Neurofen.
But Ad what do you think about the principle of inviting someone from the Opposition to have an input into a Government proposition? Climate Change for example?
Heard or read someone mentioning the 'grumpy vote' so perhaps that is going to be a regular block which needs to be considered.
About Dr Reti, I wasn’t enthused about him after hearing the tenor of his ideas.
I have had Shane Reti help me first hand . He was very proactive and he has a nice manner. It would be great if someone bringing valuable knowledge into Parliament was utilised for these skills. I really do not think his "politic " leanings would get in the way. I believe he just likes to help more than anything.
If they had unique skills that were not within the existing caucus … maybe.
I can't see the point of a Minister for Climate Change. It just Balkanises the whole issue rather than making it a whole-of-government requirement. Also they already have a Commission for it, and a functioning legislative regime for carbon.
Ministers need to focus on actual climate change consequences, such as rural fire and the insurance and planning issues, or transport and fuel issues, electricity and heat plant issues, water supply and reticulation issues, or home insulation and materials issues.
Generally if it's about everything it achieves nothing. As with poverty measures, Ministers need accountability frameworks that are Specific Measurable Accurate Rational and Timebound.
That’s not the SMART acronym I know!?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMART_criteria
I think Jacinda may be looking for an opportunity for Tracey Martin in some Government role, she rated her.
Tracey is awesome, she was always in the wrong party.
That happens in the working groups.
During the Leaders Debates it just seemed that Jacinda's positivity contrasted so sharply with the harshness of Judiths attempt to appear strong/tough, just might be the future. Of course journalists want/need for MPs to be tough/aggressive so there is something to write about. Maybe a matter of personal perspective but remembering how the Greens developed a reputation for parliamentary courtesy?
Janet We are talking about politics here, not just who has a nice manner when it suits him to be helpful to a patient. You refer to his 'politic' leanings, and believe he wants to help. I am interested in why he wants to get into politics and not stick with the very important medical profession, where he can help more people personally than in politics. It is people with ambition to drive policy in certain ways that enter politics and I wonder in which direction he would like to go?
"Reti could be given a health portfolio in formation of some grand coalition…"
???????
Maybe REti could set up the border agency or build quarantine centres outside of Auckland, that many arm chair critics pontificated about since March…..
Dr Ayesha Verrall would outshine Dr Shane. Her review of contract tracing in NZ early in the pandemic, has likely saved lives, certainly lock down times…
But Chris H found REti constructive to work with, so it might be good to invite him to be involved.
BTW interesting that that arsehole Woodhouse held the Health Portfolio up until he was caught out receiving patient information…………..Then Dr Shane who was lowly ranked was given the port folio. WTF National?
Professor – that’s an insightful comment – care to elaborate?
He could maybe contribute by way of the select committee process couldn't he. Next election he could campaign on behalf of Labour. For Starters. Perhaps.
It is important to have strong informed voices on the opposition benches to ask questions about policy that is the best way for our parliamentary democracy to work.
Niceness does seem to whip the Hammish Prozzes and Horeskins of the world into frenzies of rage. There's something broken in their brains.
Dr Komment says it is probably an incipient tumour in their brains, the signs of advancing dementia, or a slow aneurysm. Whatever I don't think they pass their medical and are not fit for purpose.
I've been looking at quotes – have some good ones to throw into the mix FTTT. Here's a goodie to sit under a thread about National.
Has anyone read the range of connections Labour might have with the Greens? They might even create a new form because there is no rule to be followed.
Andrew Geddis:
https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/what-sort-of-relationship-might-labour-and-the-greens-agree-on
When your opponent creates your ads for you and all ya gotta do is say "what he said".
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1318170176660135936
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1317554725596942336
There should be a vast number of red caps distributed that have MALE on them where MAGA is – it will stand for Make Americans Love Everybody.
or perhaps – Make Americans Life Easier |
Could change MAGA to –
Make Americans Good Again | Make Americans Go Away |
Says it all.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CGY_NDrA_Qj/?igshid=fwbhz5fygjqi
Ooooh, Gameshow Goering won't be happy. The debate commission changed the rules, so now the other dude's mic is off for the first two minutes of answering a question. The $750 Man also doesn't like the topics. I wonder if that combo will be enough to make the Great White Shart flounce and do his own thing.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/19/politics/presidential-debate/index.html
I think he'll front. tRump can’t resist an audience and it's his last nation wide chance to fling poo at Biden in prime-time.
He’ll throw a poomerang.
Reckon he'll get someone else to take his covid test for him so he can breathe his greeblies on Biden?
The Biden campaign.. you tested negative…yeah, right..
He's not wearing a cap though! Seeing him in the brilliant unreality of the image I started to hallucinate.
At first I thought he was holding a skull (but it looks like a hamburger), and I thought of 'Alas poor Yorick I knew him well.' Then I thought of a modern Colossus of Roads. He really is a mythical figure – A legend in his own time. I wonder when that will end, will I last long enough to see the train crash?
Rhodes not Roads isn't it?
Yes I was just echoing His Great Stupidness of muddling everything. And he isn't a patch on the real Colossus which was a wonder of the world. Trump just gets the world wondering…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossus_of_Rhodes
I wonder how the dissection of the election loss is going in the National caucus. At least they have a doctor there to assist.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428767/judith-collins-speaks-after-national-party-caucus-meeting-onwards-and-upwards
How many trees wither and small woodland creatures die every time Judith smiles. I could feel the chills through the computer screen.
Fudging the failure of neolib economics and freemarket shittery for decades, government has pulled most of us down the ladder so as to allow room for the fast-movers who are charitable to political parties the room to bypass the ordinary guys.
Now with all the immigration and false bonhomie about our great economy Auckland is stretched to the limit, can't find big enough jeans to fit around its bulging body. Has to limit freedoms to choose schools, is forced to bring in socialist-style planning to all the freedom loving hopeful-socially mobile residents in Auckland. And also to the immigrants working hard to fill gaps with their keen, unswerving determination to make a buck and a good life for themselves. Auckland has grown beyond the resources available to the central or local government – the leaders of the freemarket revolution have stuffed up big time resulting in citizens being worse off on average than if caution had prevailed, and smaller steps taken as needed by our economy.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428745/big-increase-in-enrolment-zones-for-auckland-schools
"Due to large-scale growth in Auckland we need a co-ordinated and accelerated approach to optimising the Auckland school network," the documents said.
"Without the implementation or amendment of enrolment schemes in line with the Auckland growth plan, the demand and need for additional classrooms in Auckland would increase significantly; and the overall cost in additional property provision could run into the tens of millions of dollars.
This is one reason that we need more taxes: to pay for this boon to the government's apparent financial success, this surge of immigrants and businesses to Auckland, the hub of NZ behind which the rest of the country is just a Sancho Panza. But no governments have ever wanted to turn up and do their Don Quixote charge, no they contract that out. It is the sleazy modern way to not be fully physically engaged with your work, and its results, from go to whoa with full payoff.
Given that our Auckland population surge hasn't resulted in any great increase in GDP per head Auckland is simply a drain on the rest of the country. Don't know what it's like now but for decades it was pretty much an internal economy – production & consumption about equal. maybe we need a specific tax for Auckland so they pay for their own population rather than burdening the rest of the country. Plus some serious measures to move business rather more nationwide
An optimum result out of the upcoming US elections is that the Republican Party is so dissatisfied that it splits.
That starts with commentary with key strategists going: Burn this party down and start again .
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/19/stuart-stevens-collapse-of-republican-party-sot-vpx-lead.cnn
Maybe National could re-think and start to divorce into a United Party and a Reform Party again. Or even a Country Party. I mean it hasn't hurt Australia really has it?
It's a nice fantasy, but it ain't gonna happen.
The Repugs have always been an uneasy coalition of groups that detest each other only slightly less than they detest Democrats. The Democratic party is exactly the same. FPP almost necessarily forces politics into that kind of two-party configuration.
The best we can hope for is the Repug internecine warfare is prolonged to the maximum and leaves deep scars so the recovery time is measured in generations rather than election cycles.
Here, though, National could easily do it and make it work out just fine for them. MMP, y'know.
Commentators are suggesting that, just as Bill English lead the National Party to a disastrous election in 2002, the Party bounced back to nearly win the next one. In their combined analysis they appear to forget that Brash, in his first year as party leader, delivered his infamous Orewa speech and ran the Iwi/Kiwi campaign and Rob's mob flocked back. Will it take a similar, singular issue again?
1975 – Dancing Cossacks (Labour's superannuation scheme)
2005 – Iwi/Kiwi
2023 – ???
The victim’s ordeal included having his naked body burned with a blow torch, threats of castration, cigarettes stubbed out on his eyelids and beatings…
Liam Hourigan and Henry Enoka Kea were sentenced at the High Court in Auckland on Tuesday for their parts in the kidnapping and torture that only ended when the man rolled out of a moving car.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300137099/torture-case-compared-to-tarantino-film-script
That is horrible. Who would think in NZ. 90% sure that family difficulties would be behind the violent attitudes. We need to have a better NZ that comes about from families having the help and advice they need. How to get them to adopt it – start off with young parents and workshops on what they need to know, tied into a family benefit payment that keeps them involved. Help them over their problems while enabling them to stand tall, be proud, and help to keep them away from the hard drugs, and of course legalise cannabis and treat problems as medical or minor criminal.
Australians are peculiar about NZ? Irrational? NZ has control of its Covid-19 and so entering Melbourne was a risk to NZ not to them. This NZ traveller says that there is anger about them coming though she had checked to ensure that she was following protocols. It does pay to be aware that our countries are different, just united by a common language, and fairly close geographically.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/300136849/transtasman-bubble-woman-sets-the-record-straight-amid-controversy-over-new-zealanders-entering-melbourne
Storm in a beer-glass. Interesting that their local tipples include Victoria Bitter, Melbourne Bitter so they like a bite, though they also have Carlton Draught. The Premier was kind to the breweries after they suffered a big drop in sales at the beginning of the pandemic. Though not to Kiwis. So if you want to protest you could go past theirs and choose a friendly NZ beer.
Israel young people thinking about things.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/middle-east/300129664/tens-of-thousands-protest-israeli-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu
Tens of thousands of Israelis calling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resign demonstrated across the country Saturday evening, saying he is unfit to rule while on trial for corruption charges and accusing him of mismanaging the nation’s coronavirus crisis.
Protesters gathered at hundreds of locations across the country due to a nationwide lockdown that has barred them from protesting at the usual site outside Netanyahu’s official residence in Jerusalem. The current lockdown regulations allow people only to gather within one kilometre of their home.
Subtle but savage.
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1318303013199433728
"Fauci, 79, is one of the most respected scientists in the United States and has served under Republican and Democratic presidents. He has been director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984."
But hey, what would he know?
Someone who knows…….SFA
"People are tired of Covid," Trump said. "People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.
"Fauci is a disaster. If I listened to him, we'd have 500,000 deaths," Trump said.
!
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/428746/trump-labels-virus-chief-a-disaster
Apropos the comments about Mike Hosking earlier.
Hosking on September 21 2020:
"It’s been of late a tight run race (Auckland Central) and this time will be no different.The second and much more interesting bit is that Chloe Swarbrick won’t win it."
Hosking this morning after I accidentally bumped into him on radio. On John Key: "One of the great political leaders of the age."
Hosking will be like a pig in muck. There won't have to be muck, he will create it and he will be so happy with three more years for swilling.
Really would be great to see the relevance of Hosking …or Mrs Hosk……Hawkesby disappear in ever decreasing circles. Surely must be now?
Sealord. Imports Covid infected Workers.
"Paulin said he had no regrets about bringing the workers to New Zealand."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428777/imported-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-at-christchurch-isolation-facility
"Paulin said any additional costs such as healthcare or longer stays would be looked after by the fishing companies."
Well…I would fucking hope so….