Anyway…listening to "The Country" Radio show, with Jamie McKay and Rowena Duncum (again, I kid you not : ). I maybe expected Wailing/Gnashing..but there was a real feeling of National had no chance…so we went with the least harm option. And that was their theory anyway. Ok…I thought, see later and sure enough
Maybe…Its just the Farm Workers…and everyone else that ISN'T a Farmer actually liked Labour?
Edit…Dont know if anyone here remembers sir Key and his “Devil Beast” Analogy from years back. Maybe the rightie Farm types prefer a little less Beast with their Devil?
The red tide of party-vote-Labour in Southland came from the rural towns – the farmer vote is too small to count but the whipped-up hysteria did cause some southern farmers to vote Labour Party on the day! Good strategy, I say and if The Greens turn-down Labour's likely offer of a coalition, their influence will be higher, their long-term prospects brighter and the terror felt by the Federated Farmers of Southland, and regional councillor Eric Roy, greatly heightened. Good thing.
Aye. Fed Farmers…Militant Union.I wonder if the "She's a pretty Communist" feelings had to be Well Repressed. : )
Oh and also Queenstown…etc ; Huge Party Vote Labour. (I used to work as Builders Labour er years ago lol) I remember tryin to talk Workers/NZ Interests at smoko time… "are you a commie?”…Also where I got interested in Green…as some wank was happily talking how he had drill poisoned Trees. "You're not a man of the Trees are ya ?"
Had the election been held on 19 September instead of 17 October the Goldsmith $4b error would not have had such an influence on voters. I think the farming and business community looked at the ability of Robertson and Goldsmith.
Had the election been held on Sept 19 the result would have been worse for National polls were showing Labour at 50% plus.National had the wrong strategy wrong type of leadership Shane Reti would have been better.
National don't have nice people in their party .Dirty politics caught up with them after years of Denials all their chooks came home to roost.Scandal after Scandal showed how low National was prepared to go to gain power.Collins bullying and Bullshitting style went down like a cup of hot sick while she had an initial dead cat bounce,National reverted to simple Soimans perpetual whinging and crying Wolf. National supporters were not impressed with these low life politicians trying Trumpish tactics in the face of the biggest crisis since WW2.
Some random musings on vote-share comparisons between 2002 when the Nats got "Englished" and 2020 when the Nats got "Crushed":
In 2002 to the left of Labour there was also Jim Anderton (vote share 1.70%), and the Alliance (1.27%), as well as the Greens (7.00%)(although in 2002 the Greens flavour was somewhat more green compared the strong social activist flavour of 2020 Greens). This "lefter than Labour" vote share added up to 10% of the vote. In 2020, the "lefter than Labour" vote share is solely represented by the Greens on 7.57% (guess 8% after specials).
In 2002 there were two viable choices for more-or-less centrists that didn't want to choose between Labour and Nats. Winnie First (10.38%), and the Dunnys (6.69%). Between them they drew 17%. In 2020, there were vestigial WinnieFirst (2.7%) and TOP (1.4%) parties, adding up to 4% wasted centrist vote that probably won't vote Labour or Nat under any circumstances. For the sake of argument, let's infer there were 13% (17% – 4%) of centrist voters in 2002 amenable to voting Labour or Nat, but since there were viable centrist alternatives they chose those alternatives, but without those viable alternatives would have split 50/50 Lab/Nat and did so in 2020.
On the left, add up the "lefter than Labour", Labour, and "amenable centrists". In 2002 that came to 10% "ltL", 41.26% Lab, 6.5% "ac", for a total left vote share of 58%. In 2020, call it 8% "ltL" plus 49% Labour plus 0% "ac" for a total left vote share of 57%.
So in overall big picture left vs right terms, 2020 looks pretty similar to 2002 but without the fragmentation on the left.
Maybe there is a sea-change in progress, Eric Watson has been jailed in England for being an arsehole and hiding assets so that he didn't have to pay Owen Glenn for deceiving him on a dodgy deal. The times they are a-changing and arseholery is having it's day of reckoning.
These bloody colonials come from the wrong side of the sheet and don't rate for any ameliorating circumstances – like Eton etc. – the defrauding is just too harrowing.
That scumbag being imprisoned is an occasion for joy, like the equally good news that that filthy water polluter Nick Smith has been fired by the voters of Nelson. The high-minded and decent Adrian, who clearly shares this writer's euphoria, writes that this means "arseholery is having it's [sic] day of reckoning."
Really? In the United Kingdom, exactly what kind of person is running the Conservative Party and the Labour Party? Who are the people running the police and the judiciary?
Sadly, one lowlife shyster getting a small percentage of his just desserts does not mean that "arseholery" is in any danger.
Yeah Dr. Custard pissed me off because he smarmily pretended to be so reasonable and so green, when he was neither. But he was able to fool a lot of people.
At least you know where you are with Crusher (and A-hole Eric Watson).
For anyone vaguely interested in the US preznit election on a state by state basis, but not interested enough to go looking, here's a brief look at the state of current polling averages (reminder, 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win):
Biden is ahead by more than 5% in every state Clinton won (232 EC votes), plus Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10) and Nebraska 2nd district (1). These add up to 279 EC votes. That's enough more than 270 to survive a few faithless electors, but those three states are slow to count early and mail-in votes so are unlikely to declare a winner on election night. If it comes down to slow counts in those three states, expect mayhem.
Biden is also ahead by 2 to 3%ish in Arizona (11), North Carolina (15) and Florida (29). These states have good systems for counting early and mail-in votes so there's a good chance they will declare winners election night unless the margin is extremely close. Florida plus one other (plus Clinton states) is enough to go over 270. A clear election night victory for Biden in these states will likely deflate Il Douche's inevitable lies he lost because of cheating, so the likelihood of serious mayhem would go down.
Polling averages are within 1.5%ish in Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Georgia (16), Maine 2nd district (1), so call them true toss-ups.
If polling companies have waay over-corrected from their 2016 errors, then Texas (38 EC votes, 3.6% lean to Deranged Dotard) and Alaska (3 EC votes, 6% lean) are within Biden's reach.
There's going to be the inevitable cries of "but the 2016 polls were useless". Pollsters learn and adapt, and will have put a lot of effort into figuring out what they did poorly last time and made changes. Polling errors this time around are just as likely to be against Biden as for him.
This time around the polling averages are remarkably stable over time, with much fewer undecideds and no highly visible third parties. That contrasts with volatile polls in 2016, and Stein and that other guy also pulling variable support. The attempted smear campaigns against Biden are falling flat, rather than gaining traction like the ones against Hillary.
edit: if you find your way to RCPs 2020 vs 2016 comparison, check the full 2016 timeline before you panic:
Right now is equivalent to Hillary’s high point and Tinyfingers Twittertwat’s low point, between the pussygrabbing tape release, and Comey announcing the re-opening of the e-mails investigation.
I too like the 538 snake. Was interested in the lack of quality polls for Texas showing. Unlikely to flip I guess but it's the big haul of electoral votes.
If like me you live in central Auckland you can entertain yourself by going to the Domain and hopping from side to side, so you're crossing between New Zealand's most right-wing electorate and Aotearoa's most left-wing electorate.
Opportunities for domestic tourism here, maybe a drinks cart on the boundary, serving gin and tonics on the Epsom side or carrot juice on the other.
Fairly sure he is in ACT territory ? During lockdown Hoskings was praising MP David Seymour because of his assistance getting his daughter back to Australia to continue studies.
"Apparently, Collins’ concession speech was gracious and tearful, although I couldn’t really hear it because a drunk Leftie was hurling Samoan swear words at the screen. My wife promptly told me to stop swearing and sent me in the kitchen to make some tea."
Wouldn't the american election be so much more interesting if it were bernie up there slugging it out with trump..?..(sigh..!)…instead we have biden campaigning on the fact he isn't trump…it's all seriously underwhelming…
You aren't allowed to say that, because it shows: you don't understand the concept of 'electability', you are at best a useful idiot and at worst a closet Trump supporter, and (worst of all) you are denying 'agency' to all the Democratic primary voters who voted for Biden after having their agency denied by being told to vote for Biden. Even such a simple statement of Biden's self-evident uselessness and inadequacy for the horrendous task he will be faced with, is impermissible. Let's hope he wins though.
The Greek word for idiot, literally translated, means one who does not participate in politics. That sums up my conviction on the subject. Gladys Pyle d.1989 USA politician (and philosopher) http://www.picturequotes.com/
(She would know: Gladys Shields Pyle was an American politician and the first woman elected to the United States Senate without having previously been appointed to her position;
she was also the first female senator to serve as a Republican and the first female senator from South Dakota). Wikipedia
Yeah..nah…eh..?..to yr either/or..u CD b overthinking it…I was bemoaning on an intellectual/entertainment level…as bernie wd eviscerate the orange carbuncle..and I see you playing that 'electability' card…it's looking a bit tired/frayed around the edges..eh..?..that electability-card…as this election is clearly about trump vs the other person…and bernie would have been much more effective in that role than biden..and is yr playing of that tired piece of cardboard/anti-bernie trope an indicator that you could be some sort of neoliberal-incrementalism apologist..?
Something that is apparent to many Americans now, that may not have been during the primaries, is that simple competence in the skills needed for government actually do matter. And that those skills will be desperately needed from the moment the new prez sits down to work, after 4 (or 8) years of the tangerine toddler trashing everything he could get his bleached-white microscale creepy raccoon-paws on.
Biden demonstrably has those skills, in spades. Sanders' unblemished record of zero accomplishments of significance to show from his decades in government strongly suggests he does not possess those skills in governing.
You must be ignoring his record in his state..where he receives wide support…and this in a state that is resolutely republican…what his long record there shows is that he works for all people…and for the good of the whole community he served…it's one of the anomalies of the american political world…that widespread support for a self-avowing democratic socialist in a deeply conservative state….any claims bernie has no record of success ..are falsehoods…his actual record proves just the opposite…and as an aside..I know there are many in labour who are neoliberal-incrementalists..and they really need to realise that bankrupt ideology is past its' use by date…continuing that/those policies will doom us all to environmental self-destruction….it is the time for bold action….not a continuing of what came before…
Yankistanis have a mortal dread of the Socialism and would vote against a socialist if the opponent ran on a platform of beating a child to death in the main street of every town beofore lunch.
They have a mortal dread of the Socialism that benefits the poors.
The USDA has released a projection that net U.S. farm income will reach $102.7 billion this year. This would be a 23% increase from net farm income in 2019 and is the result of record farm subsidy payments that were meant to offset losses from COVID-19 and global trade disputes. Farm subsidies in 2020 are expected to total $37.2 billion, a 66% increase from 2019. The question now is if these payments will continue in 2021 if the commodity market does not fully recover from its current state.
More than a third of U.S. farm income in 2019 will come from the U.S. government in the form of the trade-war bailout, crop-insurance payouts and other federal assistance.
[…]
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects farm income to be $88 billion. Of that, $19.5 billion will come from direct farm-payment programs and another projected $10.5 billion will come from crop-insurance indemnities. Farmers help pay for federal crop insurance, but the premiums are more than 60% subsidized.
Wouldn't be wonderful if NZ politics has shifted in tone. Could Jacinda's unending kindness and courtesy rub off on other MPs? Is it possible that the people are sick of the aggressive bullying of leaders like Brownlee and Collins? Could cross party cooperation become a standard reality?
And within that new tone still get the job done and even get militant grumpy farmers to further develop positive repairs to our country.
Brilliant idea – NZ has no appetite to elect an extreme left or right government. So perhaps for starters Dr Reti could be given a health portfolio in formation of some grand coalition…
But Ad what do you think about the principle of inviting someone from the Opposition to have an input into a Government proposition? Climate Change for example?
I have had Shane Reti help me first hand . He was very proactive and he has a nice manner. It would be great if someone bringing valuable knowledge into Parliament was utilised for these skills. I really do not think his "politic " leanings would get in the way. I believe he just likes to help more than anything.
If they had unique skills that were not within the existing caucus … maybe.
I can't see the point of a Minister for Climate Change. It just Balkanises the whole issue rather than making it a whole-of-government requirement. Also they already have a Commission for it, and a functioning legislative regime for carbon.
Ministers need to focus on actual climate change consequences, such as rural fire and the insurance and planning issues, or transport and fuel issues, electricity and heat plant issues, water supply and reticulation issues, or home insulation and materials issues.
Generally if it's about everything it achieves nothing. As with poverty measures, Ministers need accountability frameworks that are Specific Measurable Accurate Rational and Timebound.
During the Leaders Debates it just seemed that Jacinda's positivity contrasted so sharply with the harshness of Judiths attempt to appear strong/tough, just might be the future. Of course journalists want/need for MPs to be tough/aggressive so there is something to write about. Maybe a matter of personal perspective but remembering how the Greens developed a reputation for parliamentary courtesy?
Janet We are talking about politics here, not just who has a nice manner when it suits him to be helpful to a patient. You refer to his 'politic' leanings, and believe he wants to help. I am interested in why he wants to get into politics and not stick with the very important medical profession, where he can help more people personally than in politics. It is people with ambition to drive policy in certain ways that enter politics and I wonder in which direction he would like to go?
Maybe REti could set up the border agency or build quarantine centres outside of Auckland, that many arm chair critics pontificated about since March…..
Dr Ayesha Verrall would outshine Dr Shane. Her review of contract tracing in NZ early in the pandemic, has likely saved lives, certainly lock down times…
But Chris H found REti constructive to work with, so it might be good to invite him to be involved.
BTW interesting that that arsehole Woodhouse held the Health Portfolio up until he was caught out receiving patient information…………..Then Dr Shane who was lowly ranked was given the port folio. WTF National?
He could maybe contribute by way of the select committee process couldn't he. Next election he could campaign on behalf of Labour. For Starters. Perhaps.
It is important to have strong informed voices on the opposition benches to ask questions about policy that is the best way for our parliamentary democracy to work.
Dr Komment says it is probably an incipient tumour in their brains, the signs of advancing dementia, or a slow aneurysm. Whatever I don't think they pass their medical and are not fit for purpose.
I've been looking at quotes – have some good ones to throw into the mix FTTT. Here's a goodie to sit under a thread about National.
George Orwell: “In our age there is no such thing as ‘keeping out of politics.’ All issues are political issues, and politics itself is a mass of lies, evasions, folly, hatred and schizophrenia.”
Ooooh, Gameshow Goering won't be happy. The debate commission changed the rules, so now the other dude's mic is off for the first two minutes of answering a question. The $750 Man also doesn't like the topics. I wonder if that combo will be enough to make the Great White Shart flounce and do his own thing.
He's not wearing a cap though! Seeing him in the brilliant unreality of the image I started to hallucinate.
At first I thought he was holding a skull (but it looks like a hamburger), and I thought of 'Alas poor Yorick I knew him well.' Then I thought of a modern Colossus of Roads. He really is a mythical figure – A legend in his own time. I wonder when that will end, will I last long enough to see the train crash?
Yes I was just echoing His Great Stupidness of muddling everything. And he isn't a patch on the real Colossus which was a wonder of the world. Trump just gets the world wondering…
Fudging the failure of neolib economics and freemarket shittery for decades, government has pulled most of us down the ladder so as to allow room for the fast-movers who are charitable to political parties the room to bypass the ordinary guys.
Now with all the immigration and false bonhomie about our great economy Auckland is stretched to the limit, can't find big enough jeans to fit around its bulging body. Has to limit freedoms to choose schools, is forced to bring in socialist-style planning to all the freedom loving hopeful-socially mobile residents in Auckland. And also to the immigrants working hard to fill gaps with their keen, unswerving determination to make a buck and a good life for themselves. Auckland has grown beyond the resources available to the central or local government – the leaders of the freemarket revolution have stuffed up big time resulting in citizens being worse off on average than if caution had prevailed, and smaller steps taken as needed by our economy.
"Due to large-scale growth in Auckland we need a co-ordinated and accelerated approach to optimising the Auckland school network," the documents said.
"Without the implementation or amendment of enrolment schemes in line with the Auckland growth plan, the demand and need for additional classrooms in Auckland would increase significantly; and the overall cost in additional property provision could run into the tens of millions of dollars.
This is one reason that we need more taxes: to pay for this boon to the government's apparent financial success, this surge of immigrants and businesses to Auckland, the hub of NZ behind which the rest of the country is just a Sancho Panza. But no governments have ever wanted to turn up and do their Don Quixote charge, no they contract that out. It is the sleazy modern way to not be fully physically engaged with your work, and its results, from go to whoa with full payoff.
Given that our Auckland population surge hasn't resulted in any great increase in GDP per head Auckland is simply a drain on the rest of the country. Don't know what it's like now but for decades it was pretty much an internal economy – production & consumption about equal. maybe we need a specific tax for Auckland so they pay for their own population rather than burdening the rest of the country. Plus some serious measures to move business rather more nationwide
Maybe National could re-think and start to divorce into a United Party and a Reform Party again. Or even a Country Party. I mean it hasn't hurt Australia really has it?
The Repugs have always been an uneasy coalition of groups that detest each other only slightly less than they detest Democrats. The Democratic party is exactly the same. FPP almost necessarily forces politics into that kind of two-party configuration.
The best we can hope for is the Repug internecine warfare is prolonged to the maximum and leaves deep scars so the recovery time is measured in generations rather than election cycles.
Here, though, National could easily do it and make it work out just fine for them. MMP, y'know.
Commentators are suggesting that, just as Bill English lead the National Party to a disastrous election in 2002, the Party bounced back to nearly win the next one. In their combined analysis they appear to forget that Brash, in his first year as party leader, delivered his infamous Orewa speech and ran the Iwi/Kiwi campaign and Rob's mob flocked back. Will it take a similar, singular issue again?
The victim’s ordeal included having his naked body burned with a blow torch, threats of castration, cigarettes stubbed out on his eyelids and beatings…
Liam Hourigan and Henry Enoka Kea were sentenced at the High Court in Auckland on Tuesday for their parts in the kidnapping and torture that only ended when the man rolled out of a moving car.
That is horrible. Who would think in NZ. 90% sure that family difficulties would be behind the violent attitudes. We need to have a better NZ that comes about from families having the help and advice they need. How to get them to adopt it – start off with young parents and workshops on what they need to know, tied into a family benefit payment that keeps them involved. Help them over their problems while enabling them to stand tall, be proud, and help to keep them away from the hard drugs, and of course legalise cannabis and treat problems as medical or minor criminal.
Australians are peculiar about NZ? Irrational? NZ has control of its Covid-19 and so entering Melbourne was a risk to NZ not to them. This NZ traveller says that there is anger about them coming though she had checked to ensure that she was following protocols. It does pay to be aware that our countries are different, just united by a common language, and fairly close geographically.
Storm in a beer-glass. Interesting that their local tipples include Victoria Bitter, Melbourne Bitter so they like a bite, though they also have Carlton Draught. The Premier was kind to the breweries after they suffered a big drop in sales at the beginning of the pandemic. Though not to Kiwis. So if you want to protest you could go past theirs and choose a friendly NZ beer.
Tens of thousands of Israelis calling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resign demonstrated across the country Saturday evening, saying he is unfit to rule while on trial for corruption charges and accusing him of mismanaging the nation’s coronavirus crisis.
Protesters gathered at hundreds of locations across the country due to a nationwide lockdown that has barred them from protesting at the usual site outside Netanyahu’s official residence in Jerusalem. The current lockdown regulations allow people only to gather within one kilometre of their home.
"Fauci, 79, is one of the most respected scientists in the United States and has served under Republican and Democratic presidents. He has been director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984."
But hey, what would he know?
Someone who knows…….SFA
"People are tired of Covid," Trump said. "People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.
"Fauci is a disaster. If I listened to him, we'd have 500,000 deaths," Trump said.
"It’s been of late a tight run race (Auckland Central) and this time will be no different.The second and much more interesting bit is that Chloe Swarbrick won’t win it."
Hosking this morning after I accidentally bumped into him on radio. On John Key: "One of the great political leaders of the age."
Hosking will be like a pig in muck. There won't have to be muck, he will create it and he will be so happy with three more years for swilling.
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Today, Te Pāti Māori join the motu in celebration as the Treaty Principles Bill is voted down at its second reading. “From the beginning, this Bill was never welcome in this House,” said Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader, Rawiri Waititi. “Our response to the first reading was one of protest: protesting ...
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"The Greens have an agenda to decimate New Zealand farming if any of their policies are implemented," he said.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/428684/farmers-want-labour-to-govern-alone-fed-farmers
Really?!
Anyway…listening to "The Country" Radio show, with Jamie McKay and Rowena Duncum (again, I kid you not : ). I maybe expected Wailing/Gnashing..but there was a real feeling of National had no chance…so we went with the least harm option. And that was their theory anyway. Ok…I thought, see later and sure enough
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/123134716/strategic-voting-thought-to-give-labour-the-edge-in-southland
Maybe…Its just the Farm Workers…and everyone else that ISN'T a Farmer actually liked Labour?
Edit…Dont know if anyone here remembers sir Key and his “Devil Beast” Analogy from years back. Maybe the rightie Farm types prefer a little less Beast with their Devil?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/green-leader-tears-into-smiling-key/D3L2T4LIBWDP4T5AS6QWZCSVXE/
Anyway….Best of for Labour/Greens !!
The red tide of party-vote-Labour in Southland came from the rural towns – the farmer vote is too small to count but the whipped-up hysteria did cause some southern farmers to vote Labour Party on the day! Good strategy, I say and if The Greens turn-down Labour's likely offer of a coalition, their influence will be higher, their long-term prospects brighter and the terror felt by the Federated Farmers of Southland, and regional councillor Eric Roy, greatly heightened. Good thing.
Aye. Fed Farmers…Militant Union.I wonder if the "She's a pretty Communist" feelings had to be Well Repressed. : )
Oh and also Queenstown…etc ; Huge Party Vote Labour. (I used to work as Builders Labour er years ago lol) I remember tryin to talk Workers/NZ Interests at smoko time… "are you a commie?”…Also where I got interested in Green…as some wank was happily talking how he had drill poisoned Trees. "You're not a man of the Trees are ya ?"
Hmmm. gotta laugh and….. Activate.
I think the "National supporters voted tactically for Labour" argument is bollocks.
I think they liked Jacinda, especially what she had done re Covid, and didn't see her as a threat to farming, which is entirely different.
" I think the "National supporters voted tactically for Labour" argument is bollocks. "
I agree. I'm sure a handful did, but barely enough to matter.
Since when did any votes belong to any party?
Back in the 40s the voters didn't belong to Labour.
In the 70s the votes didn't belong to National
In the 80s the votes didn't belong to Labour
in the 90s the votes didn't belong to National … et cetera
And in 2020 none of the votes belonged to National.
Had the election been held on 19 September instead of 17 October the Goldsmith $4b error would not have had such an influence on voters. I think the farming and business community looked at the ability of Robertson and Goldsmith.
Had the election been held on Sept 19 the result would have been worse for National polls were showing Labour at 50% plus.National had the wrong strategy wrong type of leadership Shane Reti would have been better.
National don't have nice people in their party .Dirty politics caught up with them after years of Denials all their chooks came home to roost.Scandal after Scandal showed how low National was prepared to go to gain power.Collins bullying and Bullshitting style went down like a cup of hot sick while she had an initial dead cat bounce,National reverted to simple Soimans perpetual whinging and crying Wolf. National supporters were not impressed with these low life politicians trying Trumpish tactics in the face of the biggest crisis since WW2.
Elections are won on trust and good policy.
No way of finding out if farmers and the business community changed their vote between 19 September and 17 October.
Innovative.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428677/greens-signal-innovative-ways-of-partnering-with-labour
(I like the Bike in the background : )
edit…And the ladder ! : )
Some random musings on vote-share comparisons between 2002 when the Nats got "Englished" and 2020 when the Nats got "Crushed":
In 2002 to the left of Labour there was also Jim Anderton (vote share 1.70%), and the Alliance (1.27%), as well as the Greens (7.00%)(although in 2002 the Greens flavour was somewhat more green compared the strong social activist flavour of 2020 Greens). This "lefter than Labour" vote share added up to 10% of the vote. In 2020, the "lefter than Labour" vote share is solely represented by the Greens on 7.57% (guess 8% after specials).
In 2002 there were two viable choices for more-or-less centrists that didn't want to choose between Labour and Nats. Winnie First (10.38%), and the Dunnys (6.69%). Between them they drew 17%. In 2020, there were vestigial WinnieFirst (2.7%) and TOP (1.4%) parties, adding up to 4% wasted centrist vote that probably won't vote Labour or Nat under any circumstances. For the sake of argument, let's infer there were 13% (17% – 4%) of centrist voters in 2002 amenable to voting Labour or Nat, but since there were viable centrist alternatives they chose those alternatives, but without those viable alternatives would have split 50/50 Lab/Nat and did so in 2020.
On the left, add up the "lefter than Labour", Labour, and "amenable centrists". In 2002 that came to 10% "ltL", 41.26% Lab, 6.5% "ac", for a total left vote share of 58%. In 2020, call it 8% "ltL" plus 49% Labour plus 0% "ac" for a total left vote share of 57%.
So in overall big picture left vs right terms, 2020 looks pretty similar to 2002 but without the fragmentation on the left.
But Andre, the concentration at the end of the campaign on the Green's Wealth Tax actually won them more votes. Makes you think doesn't it?
Maybe there is a sea-change in progress, Eric Watson has been jailed in England for being an arsehole and hiding assets so that he didn't have to pay Owen Glenn for deceiving him on a dodgy deal. The times they are a-changing and arseholery is having it's day of reckoning.
Poor Eric. An Etonian arsehole would have been believed when he claimed poverty or Alzheimers.
These bloody colonials come from the wrong side of the sheet and don't rate for any ameliorating circumstances – like Eton etc. – the defrauding is just too harrowing.
ha ha ha Gabby. Love ya humour!
Somebody should put in a members bill to change the law in NZ to make that an offence here too.
I'm thinking Hosking….(feel free to add names)
Hotchin
First time ever I read Hoskings after the election after a headline which included the word landslide….
Interesting how bias works. He focussed on Chole's win. Then rabbited on about how did Tamati and Helen White manage to lose in a Labour Landside……..
Seems possible Hoskings prefers the Greens over Labour.
Ps the one and only time I will read him. He's a tosser.
That scumbag being imprisoned is an occasion for joy, like the equally good news that that filthy water polluter Nick Smith has been fired by the voters of Nelson. The high-minded and decent Adrian, who clearly shares this writer's euphoria, writes that this means "arseholery is having it's [sic] day of reckoning."
Really? In the United Kingdom, exactly what kind of person is running the Conservative Party and the Labour Party? Who are the people running the police and the judiciary?
Sadly, one lowlife shyster getting a small percentage of his just desserts does not mean that "arseholery" is in any danger.
Yeah Dr. Custard pissed me off because he smarmily pretended to be so reasonable and so green, when he was neither. But he was able to fool a lot of people.
At least you know where you are with Crusher (and A-hole Eric Watson).
He was jailed for contempt of court. I assume, though I could be wrong, that he defied a court order to account for his assets.
For anyone vaguely interested in the US preznit election on a state by state basis, but not interested enough to go looking, here's a brief look at the state of current polling averages (reminder, 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win):
Biden is ahead by more than 5% in every state Clinton won (232 EC votes), plus Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10) and Nebraska 2nd district (1). These add up to 279 EC votes. That's enough more than 270 to survive a few faithless electors, but those three states are slow to count early and mail-in votes so are unlikely to declare a winner on election night. If it comes down to slow counts in those three states, expect mayhem.
Biden is also ahead by 2 to 3%ish in Arizona (11), North Carolina (15) and Florida (29). These states have good systems for counting early and mail-in votes so there's a good chance they will declare winners election night unless the margin is extremely close. Florida plus one other (plus Clinton states) is enough to go over 270. A clear election night victory for Biden in these states will likely deflate Il Douche's inevitable lies he lost because of cheating, so the likelihood of serious mayhem would go down.
Polling averages are within 1.5%ish in Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Georgia (16), Maine 2nd district (1), so call them true toss-ups.
If polling companies have waay over-corrected from their 2016 errors, then Texas (38 EC votes, 3.6% lean to Deranged Dotard) and Alaska (3 EC votes, 6% lean) are within Biden's reach.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/ (pie charts of state polling averages)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ (good "snake chart" showing their state by state forecast)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ (for the pessimists that prefer to look at somewhat Repug-biased polling averages)
There's going to be the inevitable cries of "but the 2016 polls were useless". Pollsters learn and adapt, and will have put a lot of effort into figuring out what they did poorly last time and made changes. Polling errors this time around are just as likely to be against Biden as for him.
This time around the polling averages are remarkably stable over time, with much fewer undecideds and no highly visible third parties. That contrasts with volatile polls in 2016, and Stein and that other guy also pulling variable support. The attempted smear campaigns against Biden are falling flat, rather than gaining traction like the ones against Hillary.
edit: if you find your way to RCPs 2020 vs 2016 comparison, check the full 2016 timeline before you panic:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Right now is equivalent to Hillary’s high point and Tinyfingers Twittertwat’s low point, between the pussygrabbing tape release, and Comey announcing the re-opening of the e-mails investigation.
We're booked for the Democratic Party night with the Dems in Auckland.
Another night of happy screaming to come
Enjoy Ad, these moments in life are to be savoured. (forgive the pun)
Hehehehehe
You will have such a good night Ad. I've taken the day off work to enjoy the take down of trump.
Thanks for the info Andre.
C'mon Harrison! Take him out!
I too like the 538 snake. Was interested in the lack of quality polls for Texas showing. Unlikely to flip I guess but it's the big haul of electoral votes.
If like me you live in central Auckland you can entertain yourself by going to the Domain and hopping from side to side, so you're crossing between New Zealand's most right-wing electorate and Aotearoa's most left-wing electorate.
Opportunities for domestic tourism here, maybe a drinks cart on the boundary, serving gin and tonics on the Epsom side or carrot juice on the other.
It would never have occurred to me that that might be entertaining.
On second thought, I still don't see the attraction.
You are too wedded to USA politics Andre to understand the nature of our small political joys and fancies.
Sounds like ground zero for the impending school zone war, as Old Boys lawyer up to protect their proprty investments.
I'd expect the G&T and the carrot juice to be similarly expensive.
on a related note, is chloe ,now hoskings local m.p.?
Fairly sure he is in ACT territory ? During lockdown Hoskings was praising MP David Seymour because of his assistance getting his daughter back to Australia to continue studies.
Surely us lefties can still drink G and T.!!!!!!!
According to David S there are two vegetarians in ACT! Strike me down with a feather.
Leaf, rather.
Yup, the mascot and the office hamster.
Which one is gonna go Rabbit of Caerbannog on them when the going gets tough?
Love it!! Lol Could be a fund raiser.
Teleport please that sounds like a hoot.
"Apparently, Collins’ concession speech was gracious and tearful, although I couldn’t really hear it because a drunk Leftie was hurling Samoan swear words at the screen. My wife promptly told me to stop swearing and sent me in the kitchen to make some tea."
Dave Armstrong
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/123137492/election-2020-a-bit-of-swearing-but-no-sausage-rolls-were-thrown
Wouldn't the american election be so much more interesting if it were bernie up there slugging it out with trump..?..(sigh..!)…instead we have biden campaigning on the fact he isn't trump…it's all seriously underwhelming…
You aren't allowed to say that, because it shows: you don't understand the concept of 'electability', you are at best a useful idiot and at worst a closet Trump supporter, and (worst of all) you are denying 'agency' to all the Democratic primary voters who voted for Biden after having their agency denied by being told to vote for Biden. Even such a simple statement of Biden's self-evident uselessness and inadequacy for the horrendous task he will be faced with, is impermissible. Let's hope he wins though.
I found a good quote that has relevance here.
Yeah..nah…eh..?..to yr either/or..u CD b overthinking it…I was bemoaning on an intellectual/entertainment level…as bernie wd eviscerate the orange carbuncle..and I see you playing that 'electability' card…it's looking a bit tired/frayed around the edges..eh..?..that electability-card…as this election is clearly about trump vs the other person…and bernie would have been much more effective in that role than biden..and is yr playing of that tired piece of cardboard/anti-bernie trope an indicator that you could be some sort of neoliberal-incrementalism apologist..?
Something that is apparent to many Americans now, that may not have been during the primaries, is that simple competence in the skills needed for government actually do matter. And that those skills will be desperately needed from the moment the new prez sits down to work, after 4 (or 8) years of the tangerine toddler trashing everything he could get his bleached-white microscale creepy raccoon-paws on.
Biden demonstrably has those skills, in spades. Sanders' unblemished record of zero accomplishments of significance to show from his decades in government strongly suggests he does not possess those skills in governing.
You must be ignoring his record in his state..where he receives wide support…and this in a state that is resolutely republican…what his long record there shows is that he works for all people…and for the good of the whole community he served…it's one of the anomalies of the american political world…that widespread support for a self-avowing democratic socialist in a deeply conservative state….any claims bernie has no record of success ..are falsehoods…his actual record proves just the opposite…and as an aside..I know there are many in labour who are neoliberal-incrementalists..and they really need to realise that bankrupt ideology is past its' use by date…continuing that/those policies will doom us all to environmental self-destruction….it is the time for bold action….not a continuing of what came before…
Trending blue for 30 plus years ain't a resolutely republican state.
/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Vermont
Point taken..I should have said 'his long-term/widespread support from resolute Republicans in his home state' etc..etc..
Yankistanis have a mortal dread of the Socialism and would vote against a socialist if the opponent ran on a platform of beating a child to death in the main street of every town beofore lunch.
They have a mortal dread of the Socialism that benefits the poors.
The USDA has released a projection that net U.S. farm income will reach $102.7 billion this year. This would be a 23% increase from net farm income in 2019 and is the result of record farm subsidy payments that were meant to offset losses from COVID-19 and global trade disputes. Farm subsidies in 2020 are expected to total $37.2 billion, a 66% increase from 2019. The question now is if these payments will continue in 2021 if the commodity market does not fully recover from its current state.
https://www.leadertelegram.com/country-today/markets/market-columns/farm-income-to-rise-subsidies-beneficial/article_5a0e4d87-7b80-5ea8-b002-03273ff3ae3d.html
More than a third of U.S. farm income in 2019 will come from the U.S. government in the form of the trade-war bailout, crop-insurance payouts and other federal assistance.
[…]
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects farm income to be $88 billion. Of that, $19.5 billion will come from direct farm-payment programs and another projected $10.5 billion will come from crop-insurance indemnities. Farmers help pay for federal crop insurance, but the premiums are more than 60% subsidized.
https://www.startribune.com/more-than-a-third-of-u-s-farm-income-in-2019-will-come-from-the-government/564525932/
Yankistanis … ROFL !!!
Wouldn't be wonderful if NZ politics has shifted in tone. Could Jacinda's unending kindness and courtesy rub off on other MPs? Is it possible that the people are sick of the aggressive bullying of leaders like Brownlee and Collins? Could cross party cooperation become a standard reality?
And within that new tone still get the job done and even get militant grumpy farmers to further develop positive repairs to our country.
Brilliant idea – NZ has no appetite to elect an extreme left or right government. So perhaps for starters Dr Reti could be given a health portfolio in formation of some grand coalition…
Dr Reti needs to survive the Specials first.
And Labour has a 2020 intake replete with doctors and epidemiologists who are better than Reti
Reti chose the wrong team, and for that choice will shortly return to prescribing Neurofen.
But Ad what do you think about the principle of inviting someone from the Opposition to have an input into a Government proposition? Climate Change for example?
Heard or read someone mentioning the 'grumpy vote' so perhaps that is going to be a regular block which needs to be considered.
About Dr Reti, I wasn’t enthused about him after hearing the tenor of his ideas.
I have had Shane Reti help me first hand . He was very proactive and he has a nice manner. It would be great if someone bringing valuable knowledge into Parliament was utilised for these skills. I really do not think his "politic " leanings would get in the way. I believe he just likes to help more than anything.
If they had unique skills that were not within the existing caucus … maybe.
I can't see the point of a Minister for Climate Change. It just Balkanises the whole issue rather than making it a whole-of-government requirement. Also they already have a Commission for it, and a functioning legislative regime for carbon.
Ministers need to focus on actual climate change consequences, such as rural fire and the insurance and planning issues, or transport and fuel issues, electricity and heat plant issues, water supply and reticulation issues, or home insulation and materials issues.
Generally if it's about everything it achieves nothing. As with poverty measures, Ministers need accountability frameworks that are Specific Measurable Accurate Rational and Timebound.
That’s not the SMART acronym I know!?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMART_criteria
I think Jacinda may be looking for an opportunity for Tracey Martin in some Government role, she rated her.
Tracey is awesome, she was always in the wrong party.
That happens in the working groups.
During the Leaders Debates it just seemed that Jacinda's positivity contrasted so sharply with the harshness of Judiths attempt to appear strong/tough, just might be the future. Of course journalists want/need for MPs to be tough/aggressive so there is something to write about. Maybe a matter of personal perspective but remembering how the Greens developed a reputation for parliamentary courtesy?
Janet We are talking about politics here, not just who has a nice manner when it suits him to be helpful to a patient. You refer to his 'politic' leanings, and believe he wants to help. I am interested in why he wants to get into politics and not stick with the very important medical profession, where he can help more people personally than in politics. It is people with ambition to drive policy in certain ways that enter politics and I wonder in which direction he would like to go?
"Reti could be given a health portfolio in formation of some grand coalition…"
???????
Maybe REti could set up the border agency or build quarantine centres outside of Auckland, that many arm chair critics pontificated about since March…..
Dr Ayesha Verrall would outshine Dr Shane. Her review of contract tracing in NZ early in the pandemic, has likely saved lives, certainly lock down times…
But Chris H found REti constructive to work with, so it might be good to invite him to be involved.
BTW interesting that that arsehole Woodhouse held the Health Portfolio up until he was caught out receiving patient information…………..Then Dr Shane who was lowly ranked was given the port folio. WTF National?
Professor – that’s an insightful comment – care to elaborate?
He could maybe contribute by way of the select committee process couldn't he. Next election he could campaign on behalf of Labour. For Starters. Perhaps.
It is important to have strong informed voices on the opposition benches to ask questions about policy that is the best way for our parliamentary democracy to work.
Niceness does seem to whip the Hammish Prozzes and Horeskins of the world into frenzies of rage. There's something broken in their brains.
Dr Komment says it is probably an incipient tumour in their brains, the signs of advancing dementia, or a slow aneurysm. Whatever I don't think they pass their medical and are not fit for purpose.
I've been looking at quotes – have some good ones to throw into the mix FTTT. Here's a goodie to sit under a thread about National.
Has anyone read the range of connections Labour might have with the Greens? They might even create a new form because there is no rule to be followed.
Andrew Geddis:
https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/what-sort-of-relationship-might-labour-and-the-greens-agree-on
When your opponent creates your ads for you and all ya gotta do is say "what he said".
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1318170176660135936
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1317554725596942336
There should be a vast number of red caps distributed that have MALE on them where MAGA is – it will stand for Make Americans Love Everybody.
or perhaps – Make Americans Life Easier |
Could change MAGA to –
Make Americans Good Again | Make Americans Go Away |
Says it all.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CGY_NDrA_Qj/?igshid=fwbhz5fygjqi
Ooooh, Gameshow Goering won't be happy. The debate commission changed the rules, so now the other dude's mic is off for the first two minutes of answering a question. The $750 Man also doesn't like the topics. I wonder if that combo will be enough to make the Great White Shart flounce and do his own thing.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/19/politics/presidential-debate/index.html
I think he'll front. tRump can’t resist an audience and it's his last nation wide chance to fling poo at Biden in prime-time.
He’ll throw a poomerang.
Reckon he'll get someone else to take his covid test for him so he can breathe his greeblies on Biden?
The Biden campaign.. you tested negative…yeah, right..
He's not wearing a cap though! Seeing him in the brilliant unreality of the image I started to hallucinate.
At first I thought he was holding a skull (but it looks like a hamburger), and I thought of 'Alas poor Yorick I knew him well.' Then I thought of a modern Colossus of Roads. He really is a mythical figure – A legend in his own time. I wonder when that will end, will I last long enough to see the train crash?
Rhodes not Roads isn't it?
Yes I was just echoing His Great Stupidness of muddling everything. And he isn't a patch on the real Colossus which was a wonder of the world. Trump just gets the world wondering…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossus_of_Rhodes
I wonder how the dissection of the election loss is going in the National caucus. At least they have a doctor there to assist.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428767/judith-collins-speaks-after-national-party-caucus-meeting-onwards-and-upwards
How many trees wither and small woodland creatures die every time Judith smiles. I could feel the chills through the computer screen.
Fudging the failure of neolib economics and freemarket shittery for decades, government has pulled most of us down the ladder so as to allow room for the fast-movers who are charitable to political parties the room to bypass the ordinary guys.
Now with all the immigration and false bonhomie about our great economy Auckland is stretched to the limit, can't find big enough jeans to fit around its bulging body. Has to limit freedoms to choose schools, is forced to bring in socialist-style planning to all the freedom loving hopeful-socially mobile residents in Auckland. And also to the immigrants working hard to fill gaps with their keen, unswerving determination to make a buck and a good life for themselves. Auckland has grown beyond the resources available to the central or local government – the leaders of the freemarket revolution have stuffed up big time resulting in citizens being worse off on average than if caution had prevailed, and smaller steps taken as needed by our economy.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428745/big-increase-in-enrolment-zones-for-auckland-schools
"Due to large-scale growth in Auckland we need a co-ordinated and accelerated approach to optimising the Auckland school network," the documents said.
"Without the implementation or amendment of enrolment schemes in line with the Auckland growth plan, the demand and need for additional classrooms in Auckland would increase significantly; and the overall cost in additional property provision could run into the tens of millions of dollars.
This is one reason that we need more taxes: to pay for this boon to the government's apparent financial success, this surge of immigrants and businesses to Auckland, the hub of NZ behind which the rest of the country is just a Sancho Panza. But no governments have ever wanted to turn up and do their Don Quixote charge, no they contract that out. It is the sleazy modern way to not be fully physically engaged with your work, and its results, from go to whoa with full payoff.
Given that our Auckland population surge hasn't resulted in any great increase in GDP per head Auckland is simply a drain on the rest of the country. Don't know what it's like now but for decades it was pretty much an internal economy – production & consumption about equal. maybe we need a specific tax for Auckland so they pay for their own population rather than burdening the rest of the country. Plus some serious measures to move business rather more nationwide
An optimum result out of the upcoming US elections is that the Republican Party is so dissatisfied that it splits.
That starts with commentary with key strategists going: Burn this party down and start again .
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/19/stuart-stevens-collapse-of-republican-party-sot-vpx-lead.cnn
Maybe National could re-think and start to divorce into a United Party and a Reform Party again. Or even a Country Party. I mean it hasn't hurt Australia really has it?
It's a nice fantasy, but it ain't gonna happen.
The Repugs have always been an uneasy coalition of groups that detest each other only slightly less than they detest Democrats. The Democratic party is exactly the same. FPP almost necessarily forces politics into that kind of two-party configuration.
The best we can hope for is the Repug internecine warfare is prolonged to the maximum and leaves deep scars so the recovery time is measured in generations rather than election cycles.
Here, though, National could easily do it and make it work out just fine for them. MMP, y'know.
Commentators are suggesting that, just as Bill English lead the National Party to a disastrous election in 2002, the Party bounced back to nearly win the next one. In their combined analysis they appear to forget that Brash, in his first year as party leader, delivered his infamous Orewa speech and ran the Iwi/Kiwi campaign and Rob's mob flocked back. Will it take a similar, singular issue again?
1975 – Dancing Cossacks (Labour's superannuation scheme)
2005 – Iwi/Kiwi
2023 – ???
The victim’s ordeal included having his naked body burned with a blow torch, threats of castration, cigarettes stubbed out on his eyelids and beatings…
Liam Hourigan and Henry Enoka Kea were sentenced at the High Court in Auckland on Tuesday for their parts in the kidnapping and torture that only ended when the man rolled out of a moving car.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300137099/torture-case-compared-to-tarantino-film-script
That is horrible. Who would think in NZ. 90% sure that family difficulties would be behind the violent attitudes. We need to have a better NZ that comes about from families having the help and advice they need. How to get them to adopt it – start off with young parents and workshops on what they need to know, tied into a family benefit payment that keeps them involved. Help them over their problems while enabling them to stand tall, be proud, and help to keep them away from the hard drugs, and of course legalise cannabis and treat problems as medical or minor criminal.
Australians are peculiar about NZ? Irrational? NZ has control of its Covid-19 and so entering Melbourne was a risk to NZ not to them. This NZ traveller says that there is anger about them coming though she had checked to ensure that she was following protocols. It does pay to be aware that our countries are different, just united by a common language, and fairly close geographically.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/300136849/transtasman-bubble-woman-sets-the-record-straight-amid-controversy-over-new-zealanders-entering-melbourne
Storm in a beer-glass. Interesting that their local tipples include Victoria Bitter, Melbourne Bitter so they like a bite, though they also have Carlton Draught. The Premier was kind to the breweries after they suffered a big drop in sales at the beginning of the pandemic. Though not to Kiwis. So if you want to protest you could go past theirs and choose a friendly NZ beer.
Israel young people thinking about things.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/middle-east/300129664/tens-of-thousands-protest-israeli-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu
Tens of thousands of Israelis calling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resign demonstrated across the country Saturday evening, saying he is unfit to rule while on trial for corruption charges and accusing him of mismanaging the nation’s coronavirus crisis.
Protesters gathered at hundreds of locations across the country due to a nationwide lockdown that has barred them from protesting at the usual site outside Netanyahu’s official residence in Jerusalem. The current lockdown regulations allow people only to gather within one kilometre of their home.
Subtle but savage.
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1318303013199433728
"Fauci, 79, is one of the most respected scientists in the United States and has served under Republican and Democratic presidents. He has been director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984."
But hey, what would he know?
Someone who knows…….SFA
"People are tired of Covid," Trump said. "People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.
"Fauci is a disaster. If I listened to him, we'd have 500,000 deaths," Trump said.
!
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/428746/trump-labels-virus-chief-a-disaster
Apropos the comments about Mike Hosking earlier.
Hosking on September 21 2020:
"It’s been of late a tight run race (Auckland Central) and this time will be no different.The second and much more interesting bit is that Chloe Swarbrick won’t win it."
Hosking this morning after I accidentally bumped into him on radio. On John Key: "One of the great political leaders of the age."
Hosking will be like a pig in muck. There won't have to be muck, he will create it and he will be so happy with three more years for swilling.
Really would be great to see the relevance of Hosking …or Mrs Hosk……Hawkesby disappear in ever decreasing circles. Surely must be now?
Sealord. Imports Covid infected Workers.
"Paulin said he had no regrets about bringing the workers to New Zealand."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428777/imported-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-at-christchurch-isolation-facility
"Paulin said any additional costs such as healthcare or longer stays would be looked after by the fishing companies."
Well…I would fucking hope so….