Pity the RWNJ (for they are going to be spinning in pain)

lprent
7 years ago
Categories: national, nz first, Politics, polls
Tags: election 2017, horizon poll

This arrived in the mailbox from Graeme Colman at

Horizon Research has just released two new research results.

Which main party New Zealanders prefer lead a coalition government (and what voters for the coalition-making party, NZ First, would prefer

https://horizonpoll.co.nz/page/winstons-choice-77-of-his-voters-prefer-labour-led

What issues are most important to Aucklanders (traffic, lack of trust and housing are concerning them and are best least well managed by the Government)

https://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/457/aucklanders-most-concerned-about-trust-traffic

These may be significant for those managing policy and with an interest in how Zealanders actually view issues, issues management and what coalition is preferred, given most polls now indicate NZ First will decide which main party governs..

Kindest regards

Graeme

Thank you Graeme. It is what we have suspected for a while over the last few years of ‘angry andy’, and other such facile attacks. National is losing because they are a goddamn lazy government who are losing key support – especially in Auckland.

Lets get the really bad news out first.

In 2014, preceding the general election, Horizon Research asked respondents to four nationwide surveys which party they preferred to lead a coalition government if one was needed after the election. In the last survey, July/August 2014, 56% preferred National to lead a coalition if necessary and 44% preferred Labour.

In March 2017 the position is reversed. Overall, 54% would prefer a Labour led coalition if one was necessary after the election on September 23. 46% would prefer a National-led coalition.

Among those who say they are 100% likely to vote in the next general election, 52% would prefer a Labour-led coalition and 48% a National-led coalition

Oh dear. While this follows the usual closeness of a MMP government in NZ, it is the wrong way for Bill. It does rather point to 2002 repeating because soft National voters really do like like backing winners and tend to flip towards them in the last 6 months of the 3 year election campaign.

Based on almost all polls recently, it is likely that at NZ First’s leader Winston Peter is likely to be in the kingmaker position. So where do his supporters want the decision to go?

Winston’s choice – 77% of his voters want a Labour-led government

If New Zealand First ends up holding the balance of power after the next election, those who gave the party their party vote in 2014 are likely to prefer the party leadership to support a Labour-led coalition, just as they did in 2014.

Prior to the 2014 election, 64% of those who had voted for New Zealand First in 2011 general election preferred a Labour led coalition. In March 2017, 77% of those who voted for New Zealand First in the 2014 general election prefer Labour.

And if those voters don’t get what they want, the NZ First MPs are likely to a bath at the following election. Bearing in mind that, and the way that National husks out its support parties voters like a spider on a fly, then I think that is going to provide a powerful incentive to Winston’s MPs to treat a National embrace like that of a poisoned serpent.

So contrary to the “greed rules” crowd of idiotic RWNJs who have been confidentially saying that National can provide more goodies, I suspect that if NZ First winds up in the kingmaker position, they’re not going to be that interested in being sucked dry by National. And they will already know that they won’t get the same support next election.

Now I’d point out that NZ First polls most strongly in the provinces and among the elderly.

So of course there is the possibility that mid-age Auckland voters will continue to sustain National as they have in the last 3 elections. Ummmm nope – more bad news for our trolls.

An overwhelming 92% of Aucklanders rate traffic congestion as their city’s most important issue.

However, only 15% rate the Government’s management of this issue as good or very good.

Some 97% of Aucklanders rate trust that issues are being managed as important to them.

The score for Government on this issue is 20% good to very good.

Affordable housing is the third top ranked issue, with 90% saying it is important.

17% say the Government’s management of this issue is good to very good.

Ok, it is a poll and there are nearly 6 months between now and the election. But seriously!

Does any wannabe RWNJ seriously think that they’re going to get those voters detached from NZ First. It took more that a year in 2008 even with all that pathetic lying by the Nact coalition. Or can they change the minds of the truly pissed off voters in Auckland between now and the election?

What Auckland voters will remember is the lying – also known as Nick Smith. So full of promise and so pathetically ineffective on delivery. Now that what really hurts.

Somehow I don’t think that any late changes in the housing crisis in Auckland nor National’s policy of unfettered inwards migration driving the shortage of housing and road room in Auckland will change anything in the next 6 months.

Voters usually start making up their mind early in this six months, and up here in Auckland they really aren’t happy with National.