Pollwatch: August Roy Morgan poll, reported 1st September 2020

Hi all, sorry about missing the post for the previous Roy Morgan poll– I’ve been having connection problems for a wee bit over a month that just hit at the wrong time for me to be able to write a post for that one, and my phone’s internet wasn’t stable enough to send off a post unfortunately, even though I had it drafted. I did manage to get the results onto Twitter if you want to see them. Was intending to catch up yesterday or today and post my draft with images and proper metadata, but we’ve been overrun by the new Roy Morgan results, so why don’t we skip ahead straight to the new one.

It looks like just under a month out from the delayed election date, we’re finally getting some narrowing of the poll results, with Labour under 50% for the first time since March, but still within shooting distance of a majority government- the line for this varies based on how much of the party vote is given to parties that don’t enter Parliament, but the plurality winner (largest result winner, so in 2017 this was National) of the party vote getting below 47% is usually a pretty safe line to call it an expected minority government.

As Roy Morgan doesn’t run a seat calculation on their results, I’ve done that for you on the left. This represents the single most likely result from this poll, if we trust its methodology. As usual, I should point out that although the Roy Morgan was our second most reliable poll in 2017, it consistently overpolls the Greens compared to the other two polls, and is likely overestimating their support significantly here. This difference has become more dramatic in 2020 polling, and while it’s possible Roy Morgan is the one that’s more accurate about the Greens, I disagree with that idea based on past performance. That said, despite some people’s dismissal of the Roy Morgan poll, it is the only poll that sticks to a regular timeline, and it was actually more accurate than Colmar Brunton (TVNZ) overall, when you compare it to the closest timed Colmar Brunton poll for the 2017 election, meaning it arguably comes in second of the three big polls. Roy Morgan, like Colmar Brunton, polls using phone cold-calling.

Onto the party vote- at 48%, Labour is no longer guaranteed a majority government- there is some chance their actual support falls below that magic margin to get a majority government, so the narrowing has brought us back into interesting territory here again. Note that the chance for a Labour-Green government just relies on the Greens being over threshold, (which is 100% based on the party vote support given, and would be even if we assume RM is over-reporting on the Greens by a full 4 points) not on their actual level of support. Any over-threshold result in those 22.4% of simulations gives us a Labour-Green government, showing that Green support is critical right now if we want a result that requires Labour to be accountable to a coalition partner. National is clearly hoping it can knock the Greens under threshold to move the overton window a bit further right based on recent attempts to further outrage over the Green School decision, and there have been questions of whether New Zealand First is leaking on the issue, too.

In this analysis, ACT were under threshold in 9.2% of simulations, and New Zealand first in 95.6%, meaning they are extremely likely to be over and under, respectively, when the trend is taken into account. Based on actual polling data, I do not consider a Northland win for Shane Jones worth considering at this point, meaning NZF must be over threshold to win seats.

The trend is still very solidly left-wing at the moment, with only a few blips based on outlier polls even bringing National into significant contention during Ardern’s entire time governing. We’ll see if things close any further for National during the remaining month of the campaign, but at this stage I’m personally more concerned about the composition of the expected left-wing government. While I’m happy to have New Zealand First gone under current polling, I consider it a very good thing we’ve not yet seen a majority government under MMP.

Roy Morgan don’t disclose the exact fieldwork dates on their poll, but do tell us notable recent events that are covered:

“Interviewing for this survey in August encompassed the period including the enforcement of Stage 3 restrictions across Auckland following the renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the city and the decision to postpone the election by four weeks.”

Based on this, I think it likely that this result excludes the recent Green School controversy, and we should certainly wait for the next Reid Research (Newshub) or Colmar Brunton (TVNZ) poll to inform where we think the Greens are at anyway.

On individual MPs, here’s how the party lists look when I run this result through my model for electorate shifts: (List continues in order until last winner)

National
No. Name Electorate Outcome:
1 Judith Collins Papakura Electorate
2 Gerry Brownlee Ilam Electorate
3 Paul Goldsmith Epsom List
4 Simon Bridges Tauranga Electorate
5 Shane Reti Whangārei Electorate
6 Todd McClay Rotorua Electorate
7 Chris Bishop Hutt South List
8 Todd Muller Bay of Plenty Electorate
9 Louise Upston Taupō Electorate
10 Scott Simpson Coromandel Electorate
11 David Bennett Hamilton East Electorate
12 Michael Woodhouse Dunedin List
13 Nicola Willis Wellington Central Defeated
14 Jacqui Dean Waitaki Electorate
15 Mark Mitchell Whangaparāoa Electorate
16 Melissa Lee Mt Albert Defeated
17 Andrew Bayly Port Waikato Electorate
18 Nick Smith Nelson Defeated
19 Maureen Pugh List No Seat
20 Barbara Kuriger Taranaki-King Country Electorate
21 Harete Hipango Whanganui Defeated
22 Johnathan Young New Plymouth Electorate
23 Tim Macindoe Hamilton West Electorate
24 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi Panmure-Ōtāhuhu Defeated
25 Paulo Garcia List No Seat
26 Nancy Lu List No Seat
27 Parmjeet Parmar Mt Roskill Defeated
28 Agnes Loheni List No Seat
29 Dale Stephens Christchurch Central Defeated
30 Alfred Ngaro Te Atatū Defeated
31 Matt Doocey Waimakariri Electorate
32 Stuart Smith Kaikōura Electorate
33 Lawrence Yule Tukituki Defeated
34 Denise Lee Maungakiekie Defeated
35 Simon O’Connor Tāmaki Electorate
36 Brett Hudson Ōhariu Defeated
37 Simeon Brown Pakuranga Electorate
38 Ian McKelvie Rangitīkei Electorate
39 Erica Stanford East Coast Bays Electorate
40 Matt King Northland Electorate
41 Chris Penk Kaipara ki Mahurangi Electorate
42 Tim Van de Molen Waikato Electorate
43 Dan Bidois Northcote Electorate
44 Jo Hayes Mana Defeated
45 Katie Nimon Napier Defeated
46 Catherine Chu Banks Peninsula Defeated
47 Hamish Campbell Wigram Defeated
48 David Patterson Rongotai Defeated
49 Lisa Whyte New Lynn Defeated
50 Rima Nakhle Takanini Defeated
51 Liam Kernaghan Taieri Defeated
52 Bala Beeram Kelston Defeated
53 Lincoln Platt Christchurch East Defeated
54 William Wood Palmerston North Defeated
55 Nuwi Samarakone Manurewa Defeated
56 Mark Crofskey Remutaka Defeated
57 Jake Bezzant Upper Harbour Electorate
58 Mike Butterick Wairarapa Defeated
59 Tim Costley Ōtaki Electorate
60 Nicola Grigg Selwyn Electorate
61 Christopher Luxon Botany Electorate
62 Joseph Mooney Southland Electorate
63 Penny Simmonds Invercargill Electorate
64 Tania Tapsell East Coast Defeated
65 Simon Watts North Shore Electorate

 

Labour
No. Name Electorate Outcome:
1 Jacinda Ardern Mt Albert Electorate
2 Kelvin Davis Te Tai Tokerau Electorate
3 Grant Robertson Wellington Central Electorate
4 Phil Twyford Te Atatū Electorate
5 Megan Woods Wigram Electorate
6 Chris Hipkins Remutaka Electorate
7 Andrew Little List List
8 Carmel Sepuloni Kelston Electorate
9 David Parker List List
10  Nanaia Mahuta Hauraki-Waikato Electorate
11  Trevor Mallard List List
12  Stuart Nash Napier Electorate
13  Jenny Salesa Panmure-Ōtāhuhu Electorate
14  Damien O’Connor West Coast-Tasman Electorate
15  Kris Faafoi List List
16  David Clark Dunedin Electorate
17  Ayesha Verrall List List
18  Peeni Henare Tāmaki Makaurau Electorate
19  Willie Jackson List List
20  Aupito William Sio List List
21  Poto Williams Christchurch East Electorate
22  Vanushi Walters List List
23  Michael Wood Mt Roskill Electorate
24  Adrian Rurawhe Te Tai Hauāuru Electorate
25  Kiri Allan East Coast Electorate
26  Kieran McAnulty Wairarapa Electorate
27  Louisa Wall List List
28  Meka Whaitiri Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Electorate
29  Rino Tirikatene Te Tai Tonga Electorate
30  Camilla Belich Epsom List
31  Priyanca Radhakrishnan Maungakiekie Electorate
32  Jan Tinetti Tauranga List
33  Deborah Russell New Lynn Electorate
34  Marja Lubeck Kaipara ki Mahurangi List
35  Angie Warren-Clark Bay of Plenty List
36  Willow-Jean Prime Northland List
37  Tamati Coffey Waiariki Electorate
38  Naisi Chen Botany List
39  Jo Luxton Rangitata List
40  Jamie Strange Hamilton East List
41  Liz Craig Invercargill List
42  Ibrahim Omer List List
43  Duncan Webb Christchurch Central Electorate
44  Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki List List
45  Ginny Andersen Hutt South Electorate
46  Rachel Brooking List List
47  Paul Eagle Rongotai Electorate
48  Helen White Auckland Central Electorate
49  Barbara Edmonds Mana Electorate
50  Angela Roberts Taranaki-King Country List
51  Shanan Halbert Northcote Defeated
52  Neru Leavasa Takanini Electorate
53  Tracey McLellan Banks Peninsula Electorate
54  Lemauga Lydia Sosene List No Seat
55  Steph Lewis Whanganui Electorate
56  Dan Rosewarne Waimakariri Defeated
57  Rachel Boyack Nelson Electorate
58  Arena Williams Manurewa Electorate
59  Ingrid Leary Taieri Electorate
–  Greg O’Connor Ōhariu Electorate
– Anna Lorck Tukituki Electorate

 

Green
No. Name
1 Marama Davidson
2 James Shaw
3 Chlöe Swarbrick
4 Julie Anne Genter
5 Jan Logie
6 Eugenie Sage
7 Golriz Ghahraman
8 Teanau Tuiono
9 Elizabeth Kerekere
10 Ricardo Menéndez March
11 Steve Abel
12 Teall Crossen
13 Scott Willis
14 Kyle Macdonald
15 Lourdes Vano

(Remember as above, this result likely inflates the Green vote)

ACT
No. Name
1 David Seymour (Epsom)
2 Brooke van Velden
3 Nicole McKee
4 Chris Baillie
5 Simon Court
6 James McDowall
7 Karen Chhour
8 Mark Cameron

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