The John Key Party

Written By: - Date published: 8:24 am, December 1st, 2011 - 121 comments
Categories: brand key, national - Tags:

Ubiquitous Tory blonde #5 (Jo Goodhew?) was on Backbenches last night. At the factory where these Nat backbenchers are stamped out, they’re programmed to say ‘John Key’ whenever possible. It went wrong, though, when Goodhew said she was proud to be a reelected member of the John Key Party. It was a slip that told the truth: National, and the Right, is now completely dependent on one man.

In the next Parliament, 96% of the Right’s seats will be held by a single party, National. That party’s popularity is entirely dependent on John Key’s popularity, which is why its backbench Greek chorus of the bland is instructed to repeat his name at every opportunity.  Key’s personal popularity outstrips the party’s by about 20% and the party’s popularity in turn outstrips the popularity of its major policy by about 30% – Key makes the party a lot more popular than it would be if people were considering its policies alone.

So, what happens as Key’s star fades, something which already began during the election campaign? National becomes the opposition, that’s what. We saw the ugly face of Key in the last two weeks of the campaign and National’s support fell 5% from an outright win for National alone to a hairline majority for the Right. Key himself has admitted he cannot stay popular forever. It won’t take one of the supposed scandals or conspiracy theories we regularly get emailed to take him down, it’ll be the slow erosion of broken promises, unmet expectations, and unpopular policies.

Under MMP, all Labour has to do is take about 5% off National in the next 3 years and it will lead the next government (which ipredict is forecasting will be the case, and which is why it is all the more important that Labour choose a new leader that people can see as PM).

Cameron Slater gets the strategic problem for National: it is alone and it has only one vote winning asset. Which is why he is so pissed off that Key and National didn’t expend some political capital more forcefully backing a campaign for changing the voting system to a less proportional system like SM that would advantage the largest party and National in particular because its candidates face negligible splitting of the rightwing vote in the electorate vote. That would have made it easier for the monolithic Right to win in the future after Key. But the truth is that National doesn’t have the political capital to spend.

Look at the election result. 47.99%, likely to be about 47.4% after specials, for National may look impressive but actually all National has done is eat up nearly all the rightwing vote. It’s allies are now 1 seat pip squeaks. Whereas last term, National had 58 seats and could make a majority with ACT alone, this time it will have 58 or 59 and need not only ACT but Dunne as well and possibly the Maori Party too to pass anything. Could National have afforded to be seen to be self-interestedly campaign for FPP or SM and risk losing a percent or two? We could be looking at a hung Parliament right now if that had happened.

The beauty of MMP is that is allows parties on the same side of the spectrum to specialise while having much in common. The Left gets this: it has an environmental party, a working class party, a centrist ‘responsible’ party (and if you want to count NZF and the Maori Party as Left – a social conservative/economic left party and a Maori party). This allows voters to switch between parties of the Left, rather than going Tory when the party they did support displeases them (eg Labour votes going to the Greens). Not having each party trying to please everyone from extreme Left to centrist also allows the Left create a broader collective appeal. The Right has the John Key Party. As people turn off him, they don’t have anywhere else on the Right that’s viable to go, and they have across the line to Labour, NZF, or the Greens.

Eating the other rightwing parties and subsuming itself to its leader’s brand has helped National win 2 elections and become by far the largest single party but it has also made its hold on power very brittle. It is now all on Key to somehow swim against the tide for 3 years and match or better National’s result this election. It’s an awful lot to ask.

121 comments on “The John Key Party ”

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  1. mickysavage 1
    1 December 2011 at 8:36 am

    If a certain tape does indeed contain a comment by Key about how he is “playing the country like a guitar” then the recent decline in Key’s popularity will continue.

    You are right about the election result Eddie, it was actually really tight.  Labour’s loss of support was essentially to the Greens and NZFirst.  National’s gain was ACT’s loss.  And they blew 7% of their support in a couple of weeks.

    The next three years will be fascinating.  I just hope the Nats don’t trash the place during that time. 

    • One Anonymous Bloke 1.1
      1 December 2011 at 8:44 am

      Why wouldn’t they? They won’t get another chance.

      • Jackal 1.1.1
        1 December 2011 at 9:29 am

        Why wouldn’t they? Because if National want any chance of governing in the future they will need to accept that climate change is man made and start making proper changes to account for it… not just the hollow rhetoric we’ve been witnessing. Nature will soon ensure that people cannot remain in their complacency.

        National’s one man band smiling and waving while the country goes further down the gurgler isn’t going to work. There are New Zealander’s who give a damn and will put themselves on the line to protect Aotearoa from National’s corporate agenda. Viva la revolution.

        • Ten Miles Over 1.1.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 12:33 pm

          ” Because if National want any chance of governing in the future they will need to accept that climate change is man made”

          Conversely if the world doesn’t warm then it’ll be a shoe-in for National.

        • Draco T Bastard 1.1.1.2
          1 December 2011 at 1:30 pm

          Because if National want any chance of governing in the future they will need to accept that climate change is man made and start making proper changes to account for it…

          This is one of those terrifying novels that comes out every now and then because you can see the parallels IRL. National know that we are the cause of Climate Change – they just don’t care.

      • Gosman 1.1.2
        1 December 2011 at 9:32 am

        Why is that? Will the left declare that no party can stand for Parliament if they come from the right?

        Do you honestly think that somehow there will be left leaning Governments in perpetuity the next time they come to power?

        • Lanthanide 1.1.2.1
          1 December 2011 at 9:45 am

          The electorate is clearly left-leaning. The low turnout and National’s inability to get many more seats than the last election makes that quite clear.

          • Gosman 1.1.2.1.1
            1 December 2011 at 11:17 am

            The electorate is clearly not left leaning unless you include the Conservatives and NZ First as left. If you want to claim them as part of the left then be my guest.

            • lprent 1.1.2.1.1.1
              1 December 2011 at 12:08 pm

              And I thought that they were your types. Winston in particular reads just like you do.

            • Draco T Bastard 1.1.2.1.1.2
              1 December 2011 at 1:32 pm

              NZ1st is more left than Labour.

              • Ari …
                2 December 2011 at 2:49 am

                That depends if you consider left-right to be a horizontal or diagonal axis. If you view leftism as being towards the bottom left corner and rightwards as the top right, then they’re both equally rightward of centre. 😉 (Although NZF may be less authoritarian and Labour more economically Right this election than the 2008 one)

            • Ari 1.1.2.1.1.3
              2 December 2011 at 2:46 am

              The electorate is left of National. I’d be more inclined to describe New Zealand as a very centrist country, actually- part of the reason that Labour has done so well under MMP, really.

    • Carol 1.2
      1 December 2011 at 8:50 am

      The next three years will be fascinating. I just hope the Nats don’t trash the place during that time.

      That’s the worst fear.

      If that irritating blond #5, is regularly positioned behind the main male National players in Question Time this term, nodding and clapping at their every move, I will be tempted to throw something at the screen.

      It’s telling of the National hiearchy/Key’s attitude to women, that they use women in such a way so as to boost the image of the men that dominate the party and caucus.

      I think it will be useful in the long run for the general populace to see for themselves just how shallow and duplicitous Key and his government are. That will put many off ever voting for National again.

      If the left had won the election by a small margin this time, many would have continued to see Key as their favoured poster-pollie, and think he’d been cheated of his rightful position.

      • gingercrush 1.2.1
        1 December 2011 at 11:40 am

        Are you thick?

        You do know Labour did the exactly same thing with Steve Chadwick.

        • Colonial Viper 1.2.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 11:49 am

          Well actually, Labour bothered to put a woman in as deputy leader, whereas National only has 2 women in their top ten line up, both in the bottom half.

          • gingercrush 1.2.1.1.1
            1 December 2011 at 11:55 am

            Labour’s stats aren’t much better and I can’t see Labour ever having a woman as a Finance Minister for instance, something National has achieved. I’m not going to defend National’s record on women. It could undoubtedly be better but Labour has just 10% more women than National. So I really don’t think anyone on the left should be skiting about that. Only the Greens have shown themselves to be a partythat has near-equal representation.

            Beside, Jo Goodhew was a junior whip. Whips are suppose to sit behind the leader and deputy leader. It is actually an important role for both major parties and certainly nothing for someone to sneer over and in the process completely ignoring the role whips play during question time.

          • insider 1.2.1.1.2
            1 December 2011 at 1:59 pm

            What party had the first woman PM again? Only woman finance minister? How many women running for leader of Labour this week? Swings and roundabouts…

            • Treetop 1.2.1.1.2.1
              1 December 2011 at 8:53 pm

              What party had the first woman PM ELECTED by the people?
              (Hint she lasted nine years).

            • Ari 1.2.1.1.2.2
              2 December 2011 at 2:52 am

              Gotta love how it’s all about the leader, with maybe a sop to the Minister of Finance/Deputy for the National types. The rest of the team is important too, and yours grossly undervalues, under-represents, and just plain doesn’t listen enough to women. Call me back when you’ve guaranteed that a woman is always co-leader of your party. 😉

    • Lanthanide 1.3
      1 December 2011 at 9:44 am

      If National got 58 seats with the 45% of the vote or whatever it was that time, and this time they get 58 or 59 seats on ~47.5% of the vote, then it seems like the difference is the wasted vote that went to NZFirst in the last election.

      I’d be interesting to know how parliament would’ve shaken out had they got in last time.

    • Tom Gould 1.4
      1 December 2011 at 10:04 am

      There are strong and very troubling signs that Key is losing touch with reality, which should concern everyone.

    • Anne 1.5
      1 December 2011 at 11:23 am

      If a certain tape does indeed contain a comment by Key about how he is “playing the country like a guitar” then the recent decline in Key’s popularity will continue

      Playing the country like a guitar as in… lulling them to sleep? Dumbing them down so that they can’t see the wood for the trees? Spinning them lies wrapped in fluffy white cotton wool?

      mickey’s comment suggests there might be a few extra copies of the tape floating around. Must get it out there into the public arena soon, so we can have a good (quiet) laugh at the fools who fell for him.

  2. Steve 2
    1 December 2011 at 9:02 am

    Will that be the end of Goodhew on BB? followed by the end of BB when Shopping 7 replaces TVNZ 7.
    In every other sentence that came out of Jo’s mouth she mentioned Key in some way.
    Clearly some of the robots have not been upgraded to Post Election Speak V2.0. Wilkinson’s non show over Huntly on morning report is merely indicative that reprogramming is underway.

    • Jono 2.1
      1 December 2011 at 10:26 am

      Given that she has probably just lost a staff person from her other portfolio in a helicopter crash that might not be quite fair. Fortuitous, but.

  3. Adrian 3
    1 December 2011 at 9:05 am

    Labour’s problem was that it ran an honest campaign, no lies no bullshit, whereas Nationals was all lies. The local Nat candidate, Colin King at every single meeting read from a sheet, after 6 years in Parliament he could not stand and give a speech or answer a question that was not scripted by the Nat propaganda unit. Every single statement on that sheet was a blatant and deliberate lie, from “10% pay 76% of tax” to “600 new police” ( real figure 424), 2000 new doctors and nurses, the real figure was hard to find out but locally his figures were somewhere between 10% – 20% of what he claimed. Even after a proper referenced correction in the local paper he persisted with the bullshit. I had fun at the meet the candidates meetings. I hate liars!.
    On asset sales, instead of the esoteric ” money going offshore, loss of control ” message from Labour, it should have been, ” Next year your electicity bill will go up by $50 bucks a week”. Would it be true, possibly but probably not. The problem is that it is likely to be untrue , in 3+ years time almost certainly true. Therefore it is a lie and saying it adds to the degradation of our essential honesty in NZ.

    • Colonial Viper 3.1
      1 December 2011 at 9:16 am

      If voters get as stupid as they do in the US, they will swallow anything fed to them. And in a democracy, that is fatal. We desperately need civics education and NZ history education in this country.

      • dave brown 3.1.2
        1 December 2011 at 1:23 pm

        But you won’t get either unless its the struggle on the streets. OWS gives us that opportunity. Parliament will be a talk shop while NACTsters open the door wide open to the corporate raiders. Working class resistance has to be directed at stopping the raiders through direct action = occupations. That’s where the ‘education’ will happen. That’s where the contradictions will explode and where Key’s legitimacy will be blown. That’s where the NACTsters will meet their own Pike River.

      • Ari 3.1.3
        2 December 2011 at 2:56 am

        Civics education doesn’t undo the lack of a good media institution which can help fill in any holes people have in their justifiable suspicion of government. We need both. 🙂

    • Misanthropic Curmudgeon 3.2
      1 December 2011 at 10:31 am

      You are kidding when you say “Labour’s problem was that it ran an honest campaign, no lies no bullshit”, right?!?!

      What were Goffs fearmongering babblings about all police recruitmenst being cancelled for 2012 (when on intake had beed deferred due to higher than normal retention), the scanadlous and erred (illegal) pampletts on ‘not being around when your baby turns one’, that National has slashed ECE fundind (when it has increased by $400,000,000 in thelast three years), that fruit and veges have been “spiralling upwards” (when they’re about the same price as 2008), that borrowing to buy assest does not count as borrowing (which any mortgage owner can tell you is codswallop).

      • Lanthanide 3.2.1
        1 December 2011 at 10:58 am

        “(when on intake had beed deferred due to higher than normal retention)”

        Convenient how they came out and said that *after* Goff blew the whistle, eh?

        “that fruit and veges have been “spiralling upwards” (when they’re about the same price as 2008)”

        So what? Just because 2008 had record high food prices, it doesn’t mean that having record high food prices in 2011 is somehow nothing to be concerned about.

        “that borrowing to buy assest does not count as borrowing (which any mortgage owner can tell you is codswallop)”

        When you have a mortgage on your house, do you play the “how much of the house do you actually own” game, where you calculate that actually you own a bedroom and a bathroom but nothing else? Or do you say “because I have a mortgage on this property, I don’t any of it at all until I sell it”. The point about borrowing to invest is that if you invest well you end up in a net asset position. Yes, you have a liability in the borrowing, but that’s offset by the asset which is hopefully worth more now than when you bought it. Just like the housing boom in the 2000’s was from people using mortgages to buy appreciating assets.

      • Colonial Viper 3.2.2
        1 December 2011 at 11:01 am

        MC = RWNJ astroturfer

      • Adrian 3.2.3
        1 December 2011 at 11:09 am

        Listen M C Brownose, a govt worker here with a packed up house and family ready to move to Wgtn for January training told Labour workers on Election day that he heard that Jan had been cancelled from Phil Goff on TV, he got text on Friday from the Police to say it had been “deferred ” he asked should he still go to Wgtn and wait for the March intake. The reply, nobody in the January intake can expect to be in any intake next year. He’s now unemployed and a lifetime Labour voter. Fuck off, you lying bastard.

  4. Craig Glen Eden 4
    1 December 2011 at 9:08 am

    I had to laugh when Goodhew came out with the “John Key Party” it just fell out and then she tried to pick it back up off the floor, but then thought better of it.
    Key is Nationals only asset which is why its going to be crucial Labour has a Leader who is good with the media enter David Cunliffe. Personally I think Labour does not have to worry about the Green, its Key Labour has to knock over, not by attacking him personally but by combating the Key spin that black is white. It will be crucial that the new Labour leader is able to work really well with the Greens leadership so a solid opposition can combat Nationals agenda.
    The final piece in the puzzle will be to present a Labour Party that represents Maori, what better way to signal the importance of Maori to Labour than to have the first Maori Woman as deputy leader of the Labour Party enter Nania Mahuta.

    • Colonial Viper 4.1
      1 December 2011 at 9:17 am

      Someone get this video clip and SAVE IT FOR 2014!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Pete George 4.2
      1 December 2011 at 9:24 am

      Other than symbolism and ticking certain boxes does Mahuta have the ability to be an effective deputy? I’ve heard hardly anything of her.

      She’s been an MP for 15 years, paired with Cunliffe does that look too much like more of the ‘same old’? Maybe not if no one knows what she looks like yet.

      • Frida 4.2.1
        1 December 2011 at 9:33 am

        Other than a bouffant hairstyle and ticking certain christian boxes does Dunne have the ability to be an effective Minister? I’ve heard hardly anything of him.

        He’s been an MP for hundreds of years, paired with Banks does that look too much like more of the ‘same old’? Maybe not if no one knows what he actually does.

        • Pete George 4.2.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 9:55 am

          Dunne actually does have respect as a hard working electorate MP and an effective minister – trusted by Key into a second term, and trusted by Helen Clark for two terms.

          It’s likely he will be able to carry on this term – in government – with things like income sharing and child support initiatives.

          And he demonstrably unticked the Christian box long ago.

          • Colonial Viper 4.2.1.1.1
            1 December 2011 at 10:26 am

            Dunne – can he even remember how many parties he has been a member of? Thank god you didn’t get in to Parliament, PG.

            • Frida 4.2.1.1.1.1
              1 December 2011 at 10:37 am

              “trusted by Key into a second term, and trusted by Helen Clark for two terms. ”

              Yep, pretty much sums the troughing, unprincipled political whore up.

          • Lanthanide 4.2.1.1.2
            1 December 2011 at 11:00 am

            Lol, still pining for the income splitting for tax purposes law.

            Pete, it’s never going to get passed.

            Actually I might suggest it as a stock on iPredict once UF’s supply and confidence agreement is finalised.

        • Deadly_NZ 4.2.1.2
          1 December 2011 at 5:20 pm

          He did rattle to life over the imitation cannabis and the party pills, but apart from that he’s just had his snout in the trough. Or is it his Coiffure under a hair dryer. And Banks ? Well, those in Epsom voted for him so they can keep him.

      • Misanthropic Curmudgeon 4.2.2
        1 December 2011 at 10:41 am

        Bingo.

        Shes dont nothing of note, acheived nothing of note, and is there because of her connections and the boxes she ticks.

        Mahuta as deputy would confine Labour to third party status.

        • freedom 4.2.2.1
          1 December 2011 at 2:50 pm

          “Shes dont nothing of note, acheived nothing of note, and is there because of her connections and the boxes she ticks.”

          where as John Key became Prime Minister through his years of dedicated work amongst the grass roots, his tireless decades of devotion to the needs of the Electorate and his passion for the framework of Parliamentary Democracy in New Zealand

          or was it the $1 million donation to the National Party?

  5. Rob 5
    1 December 2011 at 9:11 am

    snore…….

  6. David 6
    1 December 2011 at 9:24 am

    Wow you guys are still really, really bitter about losing the election huh

    • Jackal 6.1
      1 December 2011 at 9:34 am

      No! People are highly pissed off that the John Key party got so many votes after being shown up for the lying manipulative bastards that they are… all because of a biased and corrupted media and a very low turnout. That’s not democracy buddy.

      • In Vino Veritas 6.1.1
        1 December 2011 at 3:35 pm

        Jackal, and lying and manipulating wasn’t confined to the National Party, and unfortunately for you, the people clearly thought Labour lied more, and manipulated more often. Ergo, 27 odd percent of the vote and an old fashioned bath.

        • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 5:46 pm

          Ah, the old but they did it to, WAAAAGH excuse from a RWNJ. Of course, he can’t actually prove that Labour lied at any time and yet it’s been proven several times that Jonkey is a liar and so is Blinglish. Not a good look – wonder how many other National MPs lie every time someone asks them a serious question…

        • Jackal 6.1.1.2
          1 December 2011 at 9:52 pm

          In Vino Veritas

          lying and manipulating wasn’t confined to the National Party, and unfortunately for you, the people clearly thought Labour lied more [sic]

          Did you realize In Vino Veritas that the John Key party only gained 35% of the eligible votes from 3,053,705 people. However the population is 4,133,900 meaning only 23% stupidly voted for National.

          Less than a quater of the people who currently own the assets that John Key plans to sell actually voted for privatization. SO who’s actually lying about having a mandate?

    • Galeandra 6.2
      1 December 2011 at 9:40 am

      Nope, Not-Really-David-Except-When-I’m-Trolling, the post is mostly analysis of the value of MMP versus presidential FPP-ism. A pity your prejudice has eroded your powers of reading and analysis. Bye bye now.

    • Gosman 6.3
      1 December 2011 at 9:43 am

      Actually they tend to be bitter full stop. The election result hasn’t made much of a difference.

      • Colonial Viper 6.3.1
        1 December 2011 at 9:47 am

        Still backing the selling off of our country, and the blatant manipulation of our MSM to hid crucial John Key decisions and comments until after election day?

        • Rob 6.3.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 11:14 am

          Yes

        • Gosman 6.3.1.2
          1 December 2011 at 11:25 am

          Are people planning on coming here from overseas with the idea of removing bits of our real estat? I had no idea. Maybe we could grab them when they go through customs with the Clyde dam sticking out of their carry on.

          • Colonial Viper 6.3.1.2.1
            1 December 2011 at 11:36 am

            Wow you are facile in your understanding of economic sovereignty, or are pretending to be when you support the economic traitors National.

            Are people planning on coming here from overseas with the idea of removing bits of our real estat?

            yes, John Key has announced that an Australian mining company is planning to do that at Denniston.

        • In Vino Veritas 6.3.1.3
          1 December 2011 at 3:38 pm

          Colonial, if by “hiding” you mean not allowing commercially sensitive documents being made available to Phil Goff and TV1, then you haven’t a business bone in your body (or just lack any concept of reality). Given Goff’s record regarding leaking information, he’d have been the last person to whom information of this nature should have been given, and there is also the fact that he would have been clutching at any straw to stave off the electoral hiding his Labour Party received.

      • Ianupnorth 6.3.2
        1 December 2011 at 2:12 pm

        Was he not banned – another troll of the highest order is old Gossy

    • ghostwhowalksnz 6.4
      1 December 2011 at 9:56 am

      Its only 3 days man !

      Bitter was National in 2005. It went on for months.. heh heh

      • Rob 6.4.1
        1 December 2011 at 1:43 pm

        I dont think your prediliction to long term bitterness suprises anyone here. A good way to put you into a very early grave with very few people in attendance at your funeral though.

  7. David 7
    1 December 2011 at 9:38 am

    @Adrian

    “Labour’s problem was that it ran an honest campaign, no lies no bullshit, whereas Nationals was all lies.”

    Hahahahaha

    “UNDER NATIONAL YOU WON’T BE AROUND TO CELEBRATE HER 1ST BIRTHDAY”

    I think that sums it up pretty well.

    • Colonial Viper 7.1
      1 December 2011 at 9:44 am

      Are you complaining about Labour’s pamphlet, or National’s family destroying policy that the pamphlet described?

      • In Vino Veritas 7.1.1
        1 December 2011 at 3:41 pm

        Which policy that destroys families are your referring to Colonial? And how does the policy destroy families? Or is this just a bunch of words again with not a jot of backup?

    • aerobubble 7.2
      1 December 2011 at 9:47 am

      Labour’s problem is they offered a tax cut and even though so many of their voters are hard up buying milk they still didn’t get out and vote. Personally I think Labour came across as Green-lite,
      and Goff never enforced order on his party early on. Goff first off got hammered by being handed the chalice without a competetive fight, start as you mean to go on… …Goff lacked a competetive fighting attitude, well until the last debate when somebody finally called Key on his amazing ability to not answer the question. Yes or No John. Key has honed his ability to whitewash a bum deal for his clients, and now he”s using it on all of us.

      Anyway if the final count forces the 121 to 122, and ACT and Greens get a extra seat and Maori do the honest thing and say Key cannot be worked with (cite mine coverage and poverty), then National might have a pretty hard time. Even if it were able to sell itself to Dunne of holding together once banks start falling over. Reality that Key no to pension age raise actually plus continuing rush for the airport and CGT, GST off food, tax threshold OZ beckoning, leaving an even more impressive boomer pension blowout.

      No, we could be in for interesting times. Will National survive three years? One Wong move, one worthless MP, one heart attack away from a by-election.

      • Colonial Viper 7.2.1
        1 December 2011 at 9:58 am

        Indeed. Just do the math.

        2008: NAT + ACT + UF = 64. Add in Mp = 69.

        2011: NAT + ACT + UF = 61 (loss of 3 seats, assume NAT goes down to 59 after specials). Add in Mp = 64. (loss of 5 seats)

        Nicky Hager was right. Whatever way you cut it, the National coalition is far closer to the knife edge now than in their first term.

        • aerobubble 7.2.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 3:42 pm

          Which is why MSM is corrupted by dickheads who glowingly claim Key managed some marvel.

          Labor votes did not goto National, Key lost ACT’s 4? mps and have nothing to replace them with.

          Key will not last three years. Clark lasted 9.

    • freedom 7.3
      1 December 2011 at 10:20 am

      why is a factual statement regarding the imposition of familial destruction so disconcerting to your obviously skewed sensibilities?

    • Adrian 7.4
      1 December 2011 at 4:06 pm

      That’s exactly what I am talking about, a bit of truth wrapped up in a really scary outcome, spelling it out for those who still don’t believe that right wing pollies are really nasty arseholes. Unfortunatly it would bring the left down to the same gutter as the right, and that fetid stench in there would gag a maggot.
      Don’t forget that half of the people who voted for Key did so because they thought he wouldn’t sell off 1/2 the assets because it sounded stupid to do so and he was such a nice person because all those fawning fuckwits on TV said so.

      • Vicky32 7.4.1
        1 December 2011 at 6:06 pm

        Don’t forget that half of the people who voted for Key did so because they thought he wouldn’t sell off 1/2 the assets because it sounded stupid to do so and he was such a nice person because all those fawning fuckwits on TV said so.

        I can’t understand their thinking! “Oh that nice Mr Key will back down”… WTF?

        • freedom 7.4.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 6:58 pm

          when the helper in my head loads up The Paradox Vote, it momentarily freezes my body as if the brain is having trouble with the illusory trail of detritus that passes for the election’s synopsis

  8. pollywog 8
    1 December 2011 at 9:40 am

    Farrars stuff blog asks some questions…

    I’d be interested to hear why you think Labour’s vote was 7 per cent lower than in 2008, especially if you once voted Labour. Was it simply that the Greens did well? Was it that NZ First picked up tactical votes to stop National? Was it Goff? Was it one or more of their policies? And related to that, what would Labour need to do to get your vote back? Is there one particular leadership contender that appeals more to you?

    i ask one back…

    pollywog #125 09:52 pm Nov 30 2011

    A better question that would answer this one also is…

    Would so many people have voted National if John Key weren’t leader ?

    Imagine A tragedy befalling Key in the pre election and English having to step up and run for PM.

    Anyone betting the electorate wouldn’t have turned on him like they did in 2002 and handed his ass back to him in shreds ?

    • Lanthanide 8.1
      1 December 2011 at 9:48 am

      If you look at the comments in there, it’s clear a lot of people didn’t pay any attention to Labour’s media coverage, saying things like they “hardly knew what their policies were”. Frankly I think they’d have to be going out of their way, or completely tuned out, not to have heard them.

      • Brooklyn 8.1.1
        1 December 2011 at 10:29 am

        Not blaming the voters “for not getting it” are we? Simple fact: political parties have to get the message across to people who don’t (think or know) they give a shit and are increasingly less likely to engage with “conventional” media. Not so hard for the Nats who had bugger all to say, but a big and complicated job for Labour and one at which they obviously failed.

        • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 10:34 am

          but a big and complicated job for Labour and one at which they obviously failed.

          Virtually all teenagers i talked to knew that Labour’s minimum wage policy was $15/hr.

          Virtually all adults I talked to knew that Labour would stop asset sales.

    • aerobubble 8.2
      1 December 2011 at 9:51 am

      Labour has the right policies, the problem is it failed to sell them. I cannot believe that voters said no to a tax cut. Labour tax cut meant everyone got the first 5,000 tax free, and a tax cut of GST off food. How hard was it for Goff to actually say that, did he ever say that in prime time. No, not once can I remember Labour saying tax relief, tax rebalancing, tax fairness.

      • aerobubble 8.2.1
        1 December 2011 at 9:53 am

        But hey, it turned out brilliant. Goff gone. Growth forecast downgrade. Banks collapsing. Key dithers over mines. Key lies over mining on unique DOC land. Key is one seat away from oblivion. How long before a by-election?

        • Lanthanide 8.2.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 12:54 pm

          By-elections generally only occur in safe seats as people resign from parliament. We could have a sudden death or illness crop up, though.

          • aerobubble 8.2.1.1.1
            1 December 2011 at 3:47 pm

            Yeah Mps whose husband does business on trips to china, or mps who stole a dead childs identity, or mps worthlessly talking by the cooler – all are in safe seats…. …damnit why can’t the bad ones be in unsafe seats.

    • kriswgtn 8.3
      1 December 2011 at 9:57 am

      ooohh did you get demerit points
      hahahahha

    • Olwyn 8.4
      1 December 2011 at 10:41 am

      These guys are encroaching more and more on our territory – throwing us advice on who the Labour Leader should be, and now offering us a chance to vent our spleen in their direction, presumably to add to their dossier on white-anting the left and selling Key. We should be sending in an army of trolls to mislead them, as in, “I would have voted for Goff if he had worn more colourful outfits,” and “I would have voted for Goff if he had promised us free hip-hop lessons,” etc.

      • Jackal 8.4.1
        1 December 2011 at 10:59 am

        LOL I think it’s interesting that the right wing blogger’s have got themselves into a frenzy over who Labours next leader is going to be. Cameron Slater is rabid!

        I wonder if anybody voted Act because Don Brash looked so good in his Ronald McDonald outfit.

        • pollywog 8.4.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 3:35 pm

          The whale must be spewing his old pissing buddy Andrew Williams will be mackin it on 150k a year for the next 3 years just to wipe the spittle off Winstons chin while he’s still bludging and blubbering on the net for a…sickness benefit ?

      • Hanswurst 8.4.2
        2 December 2011 at 11:27 am

        These guys are encroaching more and more on our territory – throwing us advice on who the Labour Leader should be, and now offering us a chance to vent our spleen in their direction, presumably to add to their dossier on white-anting the left and selling Key.

        Actually, selling John Key sounds like a good idea to me. Preferably sell him to a consortium of Australian banks or an Australian mining company or something… actually, come to think of it, they probably wouldn’t pay for something they already own.

  9. Misanthropic Curmudgeon 9
    1 December 2011 at 10:23 am

    In saying “The Left gets this: it has an environmental party, a working class party, a centrist ‘responsible’ party” you makje a grave error is saying The Greens are an environmenstal party. They’re not.

    I desperately wish they were a environmental party, for then i could vote for them again, but The Greens desire for scoail engineerring and control means they justify the perjorative term ‘watermelons’: green on the outside, and red on the inside.

    • framu 9.1
      1 December 2011 at 10:40 am

      isnt all government social engineering?

      • Colonial Viper 9.1.1
        1 December 2011 at 10:59 am

        Yes: suppress wages. Push people who aren’t ready into the work force. Dumb down the media and media responsibility. Widen the gap between rich and poor.

        • Rob 9.1.1.1
          1 December 2011 at 1:45 pm

          Yeah and thats why we want less government , not more.

          • Draco T Bastard 9.1.1.1.1
            1 December 2011 at 2:54 pm

            No, that’s why we need better democracy rather than “representative” parties which kowtow to the rich.

          • aerobubble 9.1.1.1.2
            2 December 2011 at 2:30 pm

            You seriously don’t get it.The state taxes every citizen by holding people from using property. Nine tenths of the law is property rights enforced by government. That means you cannot go and grow food, gather food from private property, build a home on land, wander freely. In order to enforce this tax government removes money from those who can pay, and in times of war forces citizens to defend the property rights holders. In return, this is what you forget at your peril, citizens need to be fed, get shelter, be provided with healthcare, and access wealth creation. The problem is as people have created better social engineering mechanics (some good some bad) the number of people require to clean homes, haul goods, drive horse drawn carts, have dropped, and now we can produce more than enough with fewer people. They need jobs that don’t exist. So we can either share jobs around better, everyone does less work or if your a complete plonker you could force the masses to rise up again and force those who abuse property (either by hoarding it or polluting it) to give up the property. The right have failed to recognize property as a tax on everyone not the property right holder, and this is why they don’t get Greens who are the most libertarian of the parties in parliament.

        • Ianupnorth 9.1.1.2
          1 December 2011 at 2:17 pm

          Too true – one government department (Ministry of health) telling mothers to breast feed their child till age one, another government agency (WINZ) – telling them three months is a good age to put your child in day care and look for work.

          The latter is a social engineering policy of the right!

      • Draco T Bastard 9.1.2
        1 December 2011 at 2:53 pm

        Yep, that’s their main job. National are presently engaging in social engineering by bashing beneficiaries, giving our assets to their rich mates, legislating against unions (except their preferred ones like the Business Roundtable) and lowering wages.

  10. mikesh 10
    1 December 2011 at 10:49 am

    If National finish with 59 after the specials are counted, and have to provide a speaker, they will have only 60 seats if you don’t count the Maori Party. As I understand things the speaker is required by convention to vote for the status quo, and as the Maori Party is opposed to asset sales National presumably would not be able to pass the necessary legislation.

    • Colonial Viper 10.1
      1 December 2011 at 10:57 am

      As I understand things the speaker is required by convention to vote for the status quo

      Pretty sure the speaker’s vote is cast by their party.

      • mikesh 10.1.1
        1 December 2011 at 1:05 pm

        You are right. It used to be the case that the speaker’s casting vote was for the status quo, but this seems to have been changed at some point and the speaker now casts an ordinary vote.

  11. sally 11
    1 December 2011 at 11:35 am

    Dare I say, it’s not just the women. I’m pretty sure Peggy Borne couldn’t pick out Mark Mitchell in a line up of his back-bench buddies (Sabin, Simpson, O’Connor, Ross) – Goldsmith stands out as a bit of a hipster.

  12. gingercrush 12
    1 December 2011 at 11:49 am

    I love the presumption about National. In 2005 National raised its party vote to over 40% from a historical low of 21%. 2005 also had a more far-right policy agenda. The idea that this country is in love with left-wing politics really doesn’t ring true as on the whole right-wing governments have governed far more than the left. That may change and obviously one problem National has is that it doesn’t have enough partners with proven electoral capability. But it is frankly pathetic to ignore history. In 2002 National was written off as never returning to the government benches. Well they achieved that and then passed some for they’re now going to get a second term.

    Of course that in turn sees some on the right being incredibly naive and believing we’ll never see a left-wing government again. Well they’re wrong. The left will get back in. Could be 2014 or 2018 or 2022. I’m not sure at this stage. But it was obvious after 2005 National would govern in 2008. John Key or not.

    Democracy in New Zealand has never seen a dominant party. National may have slightly dominated in the past and Labour may well slightly dominate in the future. But one thing is for sure. The idea either party is going to permanently govern is extremely unlikely and historically shown to be impossible.

    • Lanthanide 12.1
      1 December 2011 at 1:02 pm

      “The idea that this country is in love with left-wing politics really doesn’t ring true as on the whole right-wing governments have governed far more than the left.”

      Because we had FPP where National repeatedly lost the popular vote but still won seats due to winning electorates.

      Engage brain before posting next time, eh?

      • gingercrush 12.1.1
        1 December 2011 at 1:17 pm

        National lost the popular vote twice. I also don’t see how that matters either. For if Labour got back in 1978 or 1981 the political landscape we see today could be entirely changed. Maybe that Labour government of 1978 would have been absolutely dreadful and voted out the next 3 years. The same argument could be done with FPP for several other elections. What about 1993. That would have produced a left-wing government presumably under MMP (though MMP would have surely changed how people voted). That could have been a great or disastorous government. We’ll just never know. Same with what would happen if NZ First went with Labour instead of National in 1996. That could have produced completely different results today. In the end they’re not very useful because they didn’t happen.

        What has happened is in the past 50 years or so National have slightly dominated Labour when it comes to governing. That may change in the future, I’d even say its more likely. It is naive for either the left or the right to believe that they can dominant government. For history shows us the voters do turn against you eventually.

    • Draco T Bastard 12.2
      1 December 2011 at 3:05 pm

      …as on the whole right-wing governments have governed far more than the left.

      Due solely to the vagaries of FPP – not because people were voting for them. There were times National got into power when Labour should have. Such non-elected governments never happened the other way – why else did you think that the word gerrymander keeps getting associated with National?

      But it is frankly pathetic to ignore history.

      We didn’t which is why we changed electoral systems. National were hoping that we had forgotten and hadn’t passed the lessons about dis-proportionality of FPP/SM on to the young.

      Could be 2014 or 2017 or 2020

      FIFY, 3 year election cycle, not four 😛

  13. randal 13
    1 December 2011 at 1:50 pm

    so its the kweewee party and parliament of fleas.
    turn up the heat.

  14. ianmac 14
    1 December 2011 at 2:08 pm

    My next letter to the local paper:
    We do admire John Key’s optimism. The John Key Party has no more votes in the 2011 Election than he had in the 2008 Election but still John is full of deserved enthusiasm. With 59 John Key MPs, plus Peter Dunne and John Banks, National has a majority of just one where last time he had a majority of four. Still John is confident that he can push through Asset Sales, deny consultation on mining in spite of the promise last year, cut Youth Rates, deal with the crashing World Economy and cut State Services. John is a great guy to handle all that with a slimmer mandate yet still keep smiling. We do admire his courage and optimism.

    • Puddleglum 14.1
      1 December 2011 at 10:11 pm

      Very good 🙂

      Political journalists just don’t get MMP. They kept saying that ‘National has an overwhelming lead of 23 points’, etc.. But a lead over what? They meant Labour, of course, but that’s not the point in MMP. The point is to command more than 50% of the seats in parliament.

      They just don’t get it. Neither does Key. 

  15. Michael Cain 15
    1 December 2011 at 2:48 pm

    3 more years of bile crap to come.

    • Afewknowthetruth 15.1
      1 December 2011 at 4:47 pm

      MC

      Yes there will be ‘bile crap’ but it will rahter very different ‘bile crap’ than the last 3 years.

      The wheels are falling off the econimic growth machine all over the world, even in the so-called powerhouse economies of China and India..

      ‘India’s economy grew at just 6.9 per cent in its second quarter, the weakest pace in more than two years, as high inflation and interest rates hit Asia’s third-biggest economy.

      Growth in the manufacturing sector, which contributes nearly 16 per cent of India’s GDP, slumped to 2.7 per cent in the three months to September, down from 7.2 per cent the previous quarter.

      Thirteen interest rate increases have failed to arrest inflation, which is close to double digits, in the $1.6 trillion economy. The Indian economy grew at 8.5 per cent in 2010-11.’

      The Eurozone is on now ‘life support’ and cannot continue to create money out of thin air to pay for energy imports indefinitely; the excreta is more or less certain to hit the rotating device some time in 2012. Japan, supposedly the world third biggest economy, has been in terminal decline since 1990 and the Fukishima meltdown has exacerbated its unsolvable peak oil energy predicament.

      The system is crashing, despite signals from the global ‘casino’ that the long-awaited recovery is here at last.

  16. felix 16
    1 December 2011 at 4:44 pm

    Good lord.

    Go to about 15min 50 sec to see the “rejuvenated” face of the National party. Who is this fucking meathead MP?

    And check out the two nasty little National ladies right after that. True face of the right wing.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/back-benches/backbenches-s2011-e42-video-4583864

    • freedom 16.1
      1 December 2011 at 6:26 pm

      ” we’ve got a lot of economic potential, not much of a plan ”

      i went back half a dozen times, it’s what he says

      and they “ship their goods to their friends in Auckland” ?
      i thought it was a Road of National Significance !

    • Puddleglum 16.2
      1 December 2011 at 10:44 pm

      Yes, fairly mediocre rejuvenation on that evidence.

      Also, what was Jo Goodhew on about? Her 2011 party and electorate vote count was down on what she got in 2008.

      Yet she kept going on about increased percentage of party vote and majority.

      Specials will change it a bit but, nevertheless, so misleading.

  17. randal 17
    1 December 2011 at 7:52 pm

    and who is meathead number fucking two michael cain with this bile crap.
    we just tormenting you cos we no we can.
    cant we.
    your whole shitload of consumerist and carrerist asproations is about to to go poof.
    merry christmas.

  18. muzza 18
    1 December 2011 at 8:58 pm

    Some comments on here just show how simple the average person really is…

    It does not matter what colours your government wears, the outcome for the country will remain the same, and it will be the peoples fault utlimately.

    Oh and man made climate change does not eminate out of NZ, so lets just get that through the thick heads too, the discussion is a side show, desiged to have us at eachother thoats on yet another level.

  19. johnm 19
    2 December 2011 at 1:08 am

    If the baby girl John is holding up were one of the 200,000 living in poverty John’s message would be: “We won’t do anything real to help you such as raise the minimum wage, extend working for families if your parents are unemployed, take GST of fruit and vege.No we won’t do any of that, cause I can’t really say this we can’t encourage breeding with the underclass, just look at my smiling face, my currency speculator’s face and believe: “A brighter future is coming for you”! Probably the reflected glow from the overclass who bask in their tax cuts and can afford more foreign holidays well away from the depressing sight of people who just get by! Now for that World tour!

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