Written By:
advantage - Date published:
8:05 am, April 6th, 2025 - 68 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, Economy, International, politicans -
Tags:
Remember when the previous National leader had a MAGA cap in the background?
Didn’t age well did it?
All the fools in global hard right political leadership will now be reminded of what they signed their supporters up for:
From Argentina to France to Germany to Hungary: voting hard right means you reap the whirlwind of nationalist chaos and international crises. Everyone’s businesses are damaged, so your job may be damaged. It is likely that your Superannuation savings are currently going backwards, so as a result of hard right decisions you may need to delay retirement. Your country won’t know where it is being led, and so you too may feel decreased sense of direction.
In our daily conversations we can now talk to neutral or right wing people about the real results of the hard right.
Six months ago the US had political leadership promoting prosperity and cohesion. Gone.
All the NZ over-50 guys who admire Trump’s racism and sexism: you too brought prosperity and stability down.
Data provided to The Spinoff by Talbot Mills Research drawing on polling conducted at the start of March 2025, says Trump has big male support here. From a survey of 1,003 people in New Zealand, “30% said they strongly or somewhat approved of the job Trump was doing as president, while 62% strongly or somewhat disapproved.”
Focus close on the males, and men under 40 give a net positive of +14. Women under 40 give Trump a -39 rating.
Men in NZ who supported Trump can now be reminded of his failure.
Once all those US men start to lose their jobs – which we will see through the US job growth data coming out through this year – we will see whether than same demographic sees the tide go out on Trump or whether his support really endures
The global left has a great chance to first enjoy “told you so world”, and secondly rebuild its voter support.
Payback is here.
Faced with an inability to fund the the US government debt, Donald Trump halted his insane rush to toward a global depression. However the political system in the US that produced this global economic insanity is still there and is still nonfunctional. Time to disengage and let the US time…
Originally posted on Nick Kelly's BlogTrump is focused on the November US Presidential Election. His anti-Chinese, nationalist, America First rhetoric is his go-to response to keep his political base onside. He is placing his political ambition ahead of millions of lives both in the US and globally. Trump has placed…
In terms of style and approach Jacinda Ardern is radically different to Donald Trump.
The push back against his demented "policies" is taking off. I posted about this here the other day
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/apr/05/hands-off-protests-trump-administration
I'll post this here as well as OM:
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/q-and-a/live
David Clark on Q&A. Common-sense from start to finish.
(Sorry, 2 mins of commercial and froth from previous show)
David Parker.
Further to my comment above.
my bold
All the fools in global hard right political leadership will now be reminded of what they signed their supporters up for: … … etc
I don't think the hard right signed up for any of that. Trump is unique, though not in a good sense.
I don't consider Trump unique. He is just the one who openly pushes the Oligarchic trend that has been happening, in NZ since the 1980's.And in the USA and UK and others.
You can see the same line of thought with our current Coalition of Cockups. It is just Seymour and Luxon and co are less obvious about it.
Hopefully now it is so blatant, to steal a term from the Cookers, people everywhere “wake up”!
Agreed. He fronts the agenda, runs the script, lies at the drop of a hat again and again as the doubling down is a solid play.
Be nice to see our spineless media take the coalition to task about their pro-trump ways……yeah right.
I see Bezos wants to buy tik-,tok. His turn to acquire a messaging platform after Elon toxified twitter it would appear.
I've just been talking to my Canadian/permanent Danish resident friend, who has skin in the game from 2 countries under attack, and is beyond furious.
She thinks the whole world should retaliate the tarrifs as a punishment and completely turn on the US. She can't understand why we and Oz haven't done that (yet). I had a hard time explaining that one.
She has no sympathy for the reasonable Americans who did their best to stop this and are caught in the crossfire. I still do, but I get the strong impression this opinion is more than just hers.
America is no longer a democracy. It's over.
Not difficult to see the CPTPP strengthened into a firmer trading bloc.
Won't do any harm to BRICS either.
Well no.
Trumps favourability rating for men under 40 is positive. Over 40 is negative and over 60 is a whopping minus 62%. https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/24-03-2025/the-trump-lads-are-abundant-in-new-zealand
The other disconcerting result is the big gap between his rating by men under 40 and the rating by women under 40. And the note that Trump supporters also tend to support people like Seymour, Collins etc.
Which bears with my own observations of young men taken in by the whole anti society Atlas propaganda.
I'm scratching my head what Ad means there. Either it's a mistake, or he's implying that somehow that cohort is responsible even though they're against Trump in the main.
I tried to find the actual numbers, but Spinoff don't appear to have them available.
In a graph further down in the link above.
Original source was Talbot Mills polling.
Note: Amongst party voters the only net favourability rating was ACT supporters.
There are several myths about Trump support in the USA also.
I wanted to see the numbers. I can't easily think in net positives and negatives, and want to see of the 1,000 odd people how many, or what %, supported T and didn't.
But yes, agree, it's important and negates the myth.
Haven't been able to find the actual numbers.
Suspect that requires a subscription to the polling companies.
I find the numbers of youngsters supporting Fascists, depressing. For a while it seemed they were heading more progressive. Now?
https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360641781/us-burger-demand-could-limit-tariff-damage-nz-beef-exports
Farmers to the rescue!
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick:
Experts fear that H5N1, which was only first detected in cows a few weeks ago, may have been transmitted through a type of cattle feed called “poultry litter” – a mix of poultry excreta, spilled feed, feathers, and other waste scraped from the floors of industrial chicken and turkey production plants.
In the UK and EU, feeding cows proteins from other animals has been tightly regulated since the outbreak of BSE – or ‘mad cow disease’ – 30 years ago.
Experts are unsure but fear it could be the poultry litter feed used in the US that has passed the virus to cattle.
“In the US, the feeding of poultry litter to beef cows is a known factor in the cause of botulism in cattle, and is a risk in the case of H5N1,” said Dr Steve Van Winden, Associate Professor in Population Medicine at the Royal Veterinary College.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/chicken-waste-fed-to-cattle-may-be-behind-bird-flu-outbreak/
Poultry litter, that's nuts , there will be beef by prodcts of some sort in chicken I'd almost gaurentee, mad cow anyone, !!
All the more reason for yanks to eat pure grass fed nz beef.
..so..just to be clear..American meat products imported here.. could well have these inter species floor scrapings..?
..’reason’ number 53 to go vegan…
Save the planet ..save yourselves…
..and stop being part of the problem..
I am part of that demographic (dudes over 50) and 100% endorse this post. It shakes your faith in human nature when you see so many blokes who think they are down to earth, sensible, hard working and smarter than you, acting like total fucken arseholes. They hate Jacinda and the “woke” and minorities.
Once I thought that they had a point, where working class concerns have been sidelined by neoliberal peccadilloes. But now the hard right has exposed its true motives. White supremacy, a free ticket to abuse women, and a tribal religious nationalism. They hate anyone who isn’t like themselves.
Smug, fat, self satisfied old pricks trying to hang onto political power at any price. But they are a declining demographic
[deleted] It’s going to be a vicious fight to rid the human race of these apex parasites
Trouble is…. a new crop of young affected by bad algorithms are self obsessed and want 'strong' leaders. If you watch movies gaming and also video on tik tok, themes of aggression soon appear. They morph, and the traits of the 'good' are skewed.
Further, tariffs could cause stagflation. That would be the pits, with increasing costs job losses higher interest rates and a struggling RSB.
True. So much social media. movies, and gaming these days is violent and aggressive which is hardly conducive to empathy, caring, and working towards social cohesion.
I removed a sentence, that came too close to suggesting murder is a solution (which you can't do on this site)
I'm not advocating violence, I'm predicting it.
Or at least, a re-run of the revolutionary movements that led FDR to compromise with the New Deal.
That is preferable to the fascist poison that is corrupting the US body politic at the moment.
I'm thinking of the Bonhoeffer movie at the moment. Yes many bit over egged in the name of poetic license – but still pertinent to today. Must see movie.
Epic soundtrack. Disturbed reinvented that song, and made it more powerful than the original
Their revenge for FDR protecting Europe from fascism was HUAC.
Their revenge for the end of HUAC is Project 2025 and its partnership with the new technocracy regime – Vance is the intersect of the two.
the over 50 thing is a mistake. The research shows that the only demographic with net support for Trump in NZ is male under 40.
Biggest cohort by far in supporting Trump, and "useful idiots" like Seymour in NZ is 18 to 34 year old males.
Trumps highest unfavourability rating is over 60's of both sexes. Maybe because we still remember fascism as recent history in our youth.
I expect roblogic is describing the people s/he experiences as the keenest supporters of our CoC. We would need a survey of the over-50's to correlate CoC support with Trump favourability. Then break that down further by race and gender.
It's certainly possible that there is a correlation between over-50 CoC-supporters and Trump-lovers. The academic literature has copious studies that correlate a cluster of opinions such as climate change denial with right-wing ideology and maleness.
I suspect that some correlation is likely, but may not be particularly strong. That' s because I know older blokes who support National to the hilt, but think Trump is nuts. Their support of National is mostly based in the idea of 'commonsense', i.e. that National runs the economy and society in a way that it has to be run and anyone who thinks otherwise is a naive dreamer who doesn't understand what people are really like. And Trump is clearly not a man of pragmatic commonsense, so they dislike him. The case of younger men supporting Trump is more perplexing and concerning however.
Certainly from the link I posted, the strongest approval rating for Trump is from ACT voters. Plus 18. (As you would expect) National are still only minus 21% compared to Labour and Green voters at minus 56 and 57%.
No breakdown available by both party and age?
Yeah unfortunately I can list off a dozen people I know who hold terrible views and make insane assertions straight out of the hate factories of social media
Those same morons who ruined twitter with their gleeful spite
Good observation of the cluster of beliefs, it's a tower of anti-social anti-intellectual bullshit impervious to facts and evidence and utterly careless of the damage it causes
“Dietrich Bonhoeffer, a German theologian and anti-Nazi resistance fighter, identified stupidity as a greater threat than evil itself. Unlike malice, which can be confronted, stupidity is immune to logic, resistant to reason, and dangerously convinced of its own rightness. Bonhoeffer observed how Nazi Germany transformed intelligent individuals into blind followers, illustrating how stupidity spreads in society when people surrender their independent thought for conformity.”
Given the reactions this week I think we can trust people. Trump will go. His people will go. The Republican Party will die. Sanity will prevail.
500 old white rich entitled Wanaka people gathered on Saturday in a crowd who as a collective loved the Treaty and all it stands for.
The world is turning.
Spectacularly.
The Montana Republican Party has censured nine state senators and will no longer consider them to be Republicans — but the senators say they hold firm to the conservative mantle and the party should not insert itself into legislative business.
In a press release sent April 4, the party’s executive committee announced it had censured the nine senators for their “repeated alignment with Senate Democrats” this legislative session and for “undermining Republican priorities and leadership.”
[…]
“I’m dumbfounded,” said Sen. Russ Tempel, R-Chester. “I’ve been a Republican longer than ( state GOP Executive Director Tyler) Newcombe’s been alive.”
In an extensive letter to the head of the state GOP, obtained by the Daily Montanan, Sen. Josh Kassmier, R-Fort Benton, said his responsibility is to the people of Montana, “not party bosses like you
https://www.alternet.org/montana-gop/?
Yes the pendulum will swing back, but it will cause damage before it does. But, really good to hear that Ad.
The 21st C's Arthur Laffer.
/
In his 2011 book “Death by China,” President Donald Trump’s senior adviser Peter Navarro quoted a China hawk named “Ron Vara” to prove his point on the threat posed by Beijing to the American economy.
“Only the Chinese can turn a leather sofa into an acid bath, a baby crib into a lethal weapon, and a cell phone battery into heart-piercing shrapnel,” Vara said. He appears once more in the book and is even referenced in the index.
There’s just one problem – Vara doesn’t appear to exist, according to an investigation by an Australian academic, who determined that Vara is actually Navarro. Ron Vara is even an anagram of Navarro’s last name.
Vara’s true identity was revealed by Australian academic Tessa Morris-Suzuki, a professor emeritus of Japanese history at the Australian National University. She told CNN that she tried to find Vara after being asked to write an article on anti-China rhetoric for a local politics and foreign affairs blog.
“I just looked him up online, assuming he might be some businessman or other, and then he wasn’t there. The more I looked, the more I thought this was really strange,” she said.
“Then I realized the anagram.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/16/politics/peter-navarro-ron-vara-trump-china-intl-hnk/index.html
Summary
The video highlights a Rachel Maddow segment revealing that Donald Trump’s tariff policy, destabilizing global markets, was based on advice from a fictional economist invented by Trump adviser Peter Navarro. This absurd but dangerous origin story underscores the incompetence and recklessness of Trump’s administration and exposes the fragility and speculative nature of the global economic system it disrupted.
5 Key Bullet Points:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/4/2314684/-Rachel-Maddow-Trump-crashed-the-world-s-markets-based-on-the-advice-of-a-fictional-economist
It is broader based than Trump being influenced by Kushner hawking Navarro
Peter Thiel is not a fan of competition (global trade in goods), his preference is for monopoly – IP led US global governance of those services markets.
He is also opposed to democracy because it constrains libertarianism. So its a broligarchy, a wealthy elite and their Silicon Valley employees and an AI led technocracy regime.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technocracy_movement
Domestic jobs for the working class panders to American nationalism to sell it to the masses.
Trump's tariff policy "was based on advice from a fictional economist". We already know that the Trump coterie are crooks and liars, so no surprises. But is this much worse than, say, fictional economics from a real economist? Probably it is worse, but perhaps it's only quantitatively worse, not qualitatively.
And the Trump tariff policy "exposes the fragility and speculative nature of the global economic system it disrupted." That's the most important point in your excellent link, and probably the thing that imperils us the most. Because we might equally disrupt that same fragile, global system by trying to do something that is actually good – such as limiting the power of the mega-rich. But this point is likely to get overlooked in the horror at the Trump regime's mendacity.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360642741/senior-republican-warns-midterm-bloodbath-if-trump-tariffs-cause-recession
It is based on a return to a pre 1913 world, when the US introduced income tax (including CG and estate tax) and moved away from tariffs.
Hamilton founded their system of government funded by tariffs in the 18thC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp34nkj1kv2o
They established their Fed Res in 1913 also.
Hamilton was a banking monopolist, so the next few years the relationship between Trump and the Fed will get interesting.
A Heraldine columnist observes the issue – what will happen to the bond market and the dollar value should there be stagflation – recession while inflation rises.
Trump and the Fed Res will be in open conflict at some point.
https://archive.li/86wnP#selection-4643.0-4643.116
Now, when I were a lad, tariffs and other protectionist policies were a left-wing approach to governing the economy and neoliberal free-trade policies were only for the right. Now we have right-wing authoritarian nationalists peddling protectionism and the world's Labour parties taking a stand for neoliberal free-trade orthodoxy. The words 'right' and 'left' seem to be losing their usefulness as political descriptors.
The "left" ensured trade with environment and labour standards – the next move is of course a carbon tariff component.
Made a lot of sense for a young New Zealand, led by Sutch, Savage, et al.
We're heading towards eradication of such heavy industry here.
So weird to see UAW and Teamsters so supportive on stage with Trump. Like they can only exist by bringing the 1960s back.
Our mechanisation future is niche – automated milking and herd date management (same in horticulture harvesting).
They'll robot/production line (mass scale) much of heavy industry – this will not be that local in smaller size nations (unless in supply line logistics place and we are not).
Fully agree and we're really good at it.
Very weird. If the protectionism were based on "We're sick of global corporations playing countries against each other to find the ones with the lowest wages, lowest corporate taxes and least environmental protection to operate in, and we're going to put a stop to it," I could see the point. None of those will appear anywhere on Trump's list of motives for this, though.
Wot p.m.said….@ 9
And..tariffs used to be how gummints earned their money…
..then they shifted the burden to the people …using income tax….
Trump has estimated that 3 trillion dollars would be raised….and he is putting those tariffs into a separate entity…
I am assuming this is so he can show the American people how that money is spent…
..and if he provides serious tax relief for everyone…well..that'd be game on…
…and anyone assuming that he is a servant of the rich…could do well to park that assumption…
Trump is a populist…and he knows that a big dollop of financial relief for (for want of a better term) the workers/lowest paid…he knows that could do wonders for his support..
And getting back to what p.m. said..it is kinda weird seeing the left arguing for a return to the status quo..(!)…
I thought that's what they were trying to do away with…
Where do you get any of that?
Link to anything real.
It's a gimmick.
What new tax relief?
They plan the extension of the 2017 tax cuts and containing their continuing deficit and debt growth by taxing consumption – tariffs are regressive.
Note they have a budget deficit and growing public debt
The GOP 2025 budget
$1.2 B to those over $400,000 pa and $2.6B to those under $400,000 pa
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/05/senate-budget-framework-trump/
25% on auto imports
to $7T total.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/01/tariffs-may-raise-much-less-than-white-house-projects-economists-say.html
Those under $150,000pa – most American families get stuff all from the historic tax cuts and will be paying the tariffs all the same.
Impressive turnouts.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/05/us/hands-off-protests-trump-musk/index.html
https://xcancel.com/search?q=%20%E2%80%98Hands%20Off%E2%80%99%20&src=typed_query
https://bsky.app/search?q=hands+off
Yeah it's really heartening.
Also AOC and Bernie turnout is a lit torch.
@ spc..
Fact: he is claiming he will get three trillion from the tariffs..
I don't know if he plucked that from his lowest orifice…but anyway you look at it ..it is a shedload of money..
Fact: he is putting that money into a separate entity…
The rest is me wondering what he will do with that money…
What do you think he will do with it..?
Fact? Link.
The entity does not yet exist and they are intending to use tariff revenue as funding in their future budgets (to afford the renewal of the 2017 tax cuts – which were not affordable).
Claim of $3T. Link? Is that per annum?
The amount reported is that it is $7T over 10 years. But there are doubts if there will be revenue gain as high as that. Explained here.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/01/tariffs-may-raise-much-less-than-white-house-projects-economists-say.html
The link is I heard him say it… somewhere in the blizzard of news..of late..
..and I already said I didn't know if it was an orifice pluck or not..
..and no he didn't cite the timeframe…
..and as an aside…I don't make shit up…eh..?
So don't quote someone who does as their SOP.
Good luck with ignoring what trump sez…for the next four years…
And I ask again…what do you think his master plan is…?
(..make sure you don't quite him..!..mind .!)
Heh..!
if you make claims of fact you have to be able to back them up. Otherwise it's just something you heard and maybe you got it wrong.
No…I didn't mishear it..and I did not get it wrong….
In which case, go find the source. Shouldn’t be hard. You know how it works here
I said I heard trump talking about it in the blizzard of news of late..where he cited Britain/vat…3 trillion from tariffs..and that a separate entity would be set up to handle that money..
When/where exactly I heard it…I wouldn't have a clue ..
In all my years commenting here…I have never peddled a mistruth…
…so I can do to others the bullshit spc is doing..?
Anything said must be footnoted…
…so…call me a liar…disbelieve me…I can't do anything about ..
But I am calling this as deja vu bullshit….
What have I actually done wrong…to deserve you swinging in behind spc's bullshit…?
Do you just want me to fuck off again…?
Thanks spc…!
Onya man/woman..!
Why don't we flip this accusation/proving thing on its head..?
In that if someone thinks someone is lying…have them prove their accusation…
..why is the accused forced to react to this most selective imperative…?
If you think I am lying…it would be a feckin doodle for you to prove me as a liar..
Why don't you get to it..?
calm down, I haven't called you a liar. It's standard practice here to provide sources when asked, for claims of fact. It's in the policy. You know this as a long term commenter.
The reason we do this is because mistakes end up derailing debate. Everyone makes mistakes at some point, it's not personal to you. It's just how things work here.
All you had to do was go and do a little bit of internet searching and come back with a source. Not difficult.
It’s déjà vu all over again; last time PU got 2 weeks for the same non-compliance and belligerent behaviour.
Silver linings and all that…
.
In our post-Covid economic (dis)order, cost-of-living crises cause electorates to lash out wherever and whenever they can. Until very recently, there was barely a popular incumbent leader in the Western world. Centrists and advocates of the status quo were falling like flies. Brexit and Donald Trump, once the enigmas of the Global North, now look the norm.
But Trump’s ascendancy to a second term has done something in neighbouring Canada, a contemporary liberal democracy, that doesn’t often happen.
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/geopolitics/2025/04/donald-trump-is-keeping-incumbents-on-life-support
"It is likely that your Superannuation savings are currently going backwards, so as a result of hard right decisions you may need to delay retirement."
This isn't Trump's fault. It is the fault of the idiots who manage superannuation funds (including Kiwisaver) who have invested like lemmings in stocks such as Apple, Meta, Tesla, Google etc that are built on sand. In particular the earnings projected for AI are (IMHO) vastly overestimated. Tesla is being taken to the cleaners by China and Korea.
The PE ratio of the US stock market (S and P 500) was around 30 before the recent falls and is now around 24. This compares with a median long term PE ratio of 18. In other words stocks are still 25% over-valued, and stocks such as Tesla (PE ratio around 130) will continue to plummet.
Look I have no sympathy for Tesla shareholders.
But when you look at a previously reliable NZ company like Infratil or other previously defensive shares go down hard in price its not just the tech bros getting done.
Also obviously I'm not giving financial advice. Every Kiwisaver has a different weighting and risk appetite.