Climate: where we are heading

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, June 28th, 2023 - 35 comments
Categories: climate change, disaster - Tags: , ,

The United Nations University has released a sixteen minute film featuring world leading climate scientist and carbon budget specialist Professor Kevin Anderson talking about the utter catastrophe we are heading for if we don’t take radical action on climate now.

This isn’t fringe thinking, it’s direct messaging of what scientists, climate activists and even mainstream media have been warning about for a long time but which has been either ignored or blocked by the political and business classes. Anderson talks about the urgent need for system-level transformation of society in order to address the crisis.

There is plenty of talk but no action. And what we have to bear in mind is that the climate only responds to action. The physics responds to how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases we put in the atmosphere. 

So we can talk about efficiency, we can talk about green growth and all of this stuff. It’s meaningless. What really matters is keeping the emissions out of the atmosphere. 

…

Technology is part of the picture, is a pre-requisite, but it needs to go hand in hand with fundamental, profound social change by those of us who are responsible for the lion’s share of the emissions. 

…

We need to take those examples and accelerate them, and say “yes we can drive change very rapidly”. It is a choice to fail, and it is a choice to succeed. If we sit back and wait for the great and good to deliver this change, then we will fail. It does come down to all of us to play our role as best that we can in doing this. 

Thankfully we are seeing early signs of this with some of the civil society movements who are really working very hard to try and change the agenda.

…

It has come from civil society, and to me that’s really where the start and nugget of hope arises.

German sustainability consultant and science communicator, Michael Flammer, created a synopsis on twitter of Anderson’s film (snips of Anderson’s videos are in the thread, twitter links in first comment).

Professor Kevin Anderson is addressing all of us in very clear words:

»We are heading towards 3 to 4°C of warming across this century, an absolute climate catastrophe for all species incl our own. And all we are doing so far is giving rhetoric and optimism and greenwash.«

»We are locking in very high levels of sea level rise, maybe 7-8 meters. We are changing weather and rainfall patterns as well as insect pollination of our crops. All of this plays out one disaster after another. We’re talking about society collapse here.« 

»Countries make various promises about what they are going to do against climate change. These promises are a disaster and still overly optimistic because they only rely on future generations, our children and grandchildren to develop technologies that we don’t have today.«

»Pseudo technologies are a facade to avoid asking the difficult political and equity based questions. ‘Net Zero’ is a real dangerous term in my view and really means NOT zero. I always say ‘net zero’ is latin for ‘kick the can down the road’.«

 »I have to be honest and say as someone who has worked on #ClimateChange for years, my best guess is that we are going to fail. But it is a choice to fail. Political leaders, academia and journalism have repeatedly chosen to fail on #climate for 30 years.«

35 comments on “Climate: where we are heading ”

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  1. weka 1
    28 June 2023 at 6:10 am

    Michael Flammer’s thread with synopsis and video snips https://twitter.com/jumpsteady/status/1672542211961921536

  2. Lyn Bergquist 2
    28 June 2023 at 7:33 am

    Can you please tell me why the only sharing allowed now is twitter?

    • weka 2.1
      28 June 2023 at 8:07 am

      Lprent was doing some maintenance but I don’t think that’s intentional. I can still see both twitter and FB share buttons on the desktop version on my phone. Can you please share what you can see?

      (You can also share by copy and pasting the URL in the address bar)

    • Incognito 2.2
      28 June 2023 at 9:05 am

      Not available and not allowed are quite different; it’s a technical issue that the SYSOP has been working on, so please give him some slack, thanks.

  3. Herodotus 3
    28 June 2023 at 8:53 am

    what a plan for this country if we were serious our leaders would be leading and ensuring that NZ meets its commitments – not meeting them and then paying some guilt money to other countries, displays to me that our leaders do not take this serious enough, that includes the likes of James Shaw who from is marginal input has done nothing in averting this- it IS serious or it is NOT – action tends to display this is NOT !!!!
    “Hence the plan is to pay other nations to make cuts for us. That’s not a terrible plan in and of itself.“
    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/if-a-tree-falls-in-an-overseas-forest-what-could-30b-buy-nz-instead?amp=1

    https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/policy/offshore-carbon-credits-needed-to-meet-new-nz-carbon-target-shaw

    • weka 3.1
      28 June 2023 at 9:11 am

      Neither the Greens nor Shaw are responsible for the NZ government's current climate plan limitations. That's on NZF and Labour. Shaw doesn't have magic wand where he can force the L/NZF or the Labour majority government to act according to GP policy.

      The Greens have adapted their policy to realpolitik and being able to achieve things to point us in the right direction.

      Shaw himself regularly says it's not enough and that we need people outside of government to force the government's hand (not sure he quite says it that bluntly).

      The problem with your position is that while it's true what Anderson says about not waiting for governments etc to lead on this, we still need governments to implement new policy and systems. That's what the GP is for. They're already doing this, making changes within government departments and setting things up for when the country finally wakes the fuck up.

      If people slag the Greens off for something that is outside of their control, people are less likely to vote for them and we are less likely to get actual useful change. This is a massive own goal and it blows my mind every time.

      • weka 3.1.1
        28 June 2023 at 9:12 am

        one of the easiest actions people can take this year is to vote Green. And support them in whatever way (social media, at work, donations). 15 – 20 Green MPs in government would change everything.

  4. That_guy 4
    28 June 2023 at 9:18 am

    The entire climate response must rely entirely on technologies that exist and that we know can be deployed at scale in the timeframe required.

    No magic future technology should be relied upon for any part of the climate response.

    However we should still invest heavily in R&D because any extra benefit we get from future technologies is breathing room we will need.

    • weka 4.1
      28 June 2023 at 9:36 am

      This is just such an obviously sensible position to take 👍 I think for many people they cannot see other ways of responding to the crisis so they put their faith in Hail Mary shots. Anderson and many many others are saying we have to drop GHGs very fast, and people struggle to understand what their lives would be like. But Gabrielle and since is giving us a glimpse of what our lives will be like if we don't act now.

      The counter culture is full of vision, ideas and practice of what our lives can be like with transition, we are incredibly fortunate to have that. So much potential if we merge that with mainstream tech R&D.

      • That_guy 4.1.1
        28 June 2023 at 9:53 am

        I would give almost anything to take away this feeling that we are heading towards a cliff with my sons in the back of the car, and instead of slamming on the brakes we're gently applying slightly less force to the accelerator.

        • weka 4.1.1.1
          28 June 2023 at 10:14 am

          I'm so sorry. I don't have kids, I can't imagine what it must be like understanding this stuff with children and grandchildren.

          I know what you mean about taking away the feeling though. Even with the degree of understanding I have, I still have days where I can't quite believe this is happening and we will never be out of this crisis for the rest of my life. There's no precedent for this for humans at this scale, and it's a hard psychological challenge. What keeps me going is exposing myself to transition culture and people who can see a way through.

          • Drowsy M. Kram 4.1.1.1.1
            28 June 2023 at 6:33 pm

            …we will never be out of this crisis for the rest of my life.

            This is an impactful framing – I hadn't thought about CC quite like that before.

          • bwaghorn 4.1.1.1.2
            29 June 2023 at 7:22 am

            Telling you kid that it's all OK and people have always predicted the end of existence while secretly thinking we're witnessing the end of existence is tough.

    • Patricia Bremner 4.2
      28 June 2023 at 6:49 pm

      yes 100% R&D.

  5. kejo 5
    28 June 2023 at 9:44 am

    Wonderful display of cynasism you guys, I wonder how much will be on display in 30 years time.

    • bwaghorn 5.1
      28 June 2023 at 11:47 am

      Short sleeves and a sun hat at 800 mtrs above sea-level central North Island, !!on late June, after a year of constant rain .

      • Patricia Bremner 5.1.1
        28 June 2023 at 6:58 pm

        Norm and I have said this is leading up to a very hot summer.

        As you say hot days, but the frost has helped the roses and daises end their long wet season. Our wee lemon tree now is covered in ripe lemons ready to be picked.

        Watching this video motivated us to list 6 changes we could make to use less plastic and agree to two more meatless meals a week. He is right it starts with us.

        • bwaghorn 5.1.1.1
          29 June 2023 at 7:24 am

          I know weather and climate are different but as a farmer there is no such thing as normal now.

  6. Hunter Thompson II 6
    28 June 2023 at 12:42 pm

    If there [is] hope, it must lie in the proles …

  7. roy cartland 7
    28 June 2023 at 3:41 pm

    Is there a metric on just how much we need to reduce our emissions, per sector? If aviation is responsible for 3%, ceasing flying flying isn't going to save us. It uses the most energy COMPARED to the others, not as part of total. (Fuel efficiency means nothing too – it just lowers the cost, meaning more flights.)

    Meat, transport, energy generation and I guess war are the culprits. If we reduced all unnecessary meat (like mince), all unnecessary transport (like private cars with one person in) and stupid energy like coal and petro, flying wouldn't be an issue. And save it for long-haul, rescue, surveying, and other meaningful uses. Not to get to the snow quicker.

  8. Phillip ure 8
    28 June 2023 at 6:32 pm

    It bears repeating that those who are pointing fingers/waving arms in (well-justified) alarm..

    If those people really really want to do something positive..and not just be part of the problem..

    The most effective action any individual can take…is to stop eating animals..and their bye-products..

    And apologies for repeating again…as a vegan my annual pollution sits at 4.3 tonne…the oecd average is 18 tonne…the nz average is a shocking 24 tonne…

    And the only difference between me and the rest of nz…is that I do not eat animals/bye-products…

    And sorry to be so blunt…but those who after their exertions of pointing/waving arms…refresh by sitting down to eat some animal..this ensuring their 24 tonne a year…are really just bullshit on a stick…eh..?

    Their histrionics.. just that….

    • Belladonna 8.1
      29 June 2023 at 10:26 am

      The UN doesn't agree with you:

      Fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – are by far the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions.

      https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change

      In the wider ecological sense, farmed animals largely just replace wild animals in the ecosystem. There is some greater density (clearance for grasslands, etc.) – but it's not enormously significant.

      • Phillip ure 8.1.1
        29 June 2023 at 11:07 am

        Yeah..right..are you just denying that huge difference in climate footprint between me and you..?

        why don't you look at nz…from memory 60% of our emissions are agriculture…most of that from farming animals..

        Another relevant fact is that stuff recently published a list of the top ten polluting companies..

        Number one is the bye-products companies fonterra…and seven of the remaining nine are meat processing companies ..(not the industry as a whole…but seven different companies..

        So to your mind..all that..plus our 24 tonne nz average ' not enormously significant'…eh..?

        Right ho…!…you just keep on wringing your hands…and pointing at everything but yourself..eh..?

        • Belladonna 8.1.1.1
          29 June 2023 at 12:58 pm

          NZ's agriculture emissions are almost entirely for export.

          Whether you personally choose to eat meat or not – you still bear the share of the CO2/Methane cost of meat and animal products for export – so your personal calculator is largely irrelevant. You, personally, benefit from the trade products for which these agricultural exports are exchanged – not least for the device with which you are using to comment on this topic.

          You might consider that NZ's emissions balances are skewed by the vastly greater-than-standard renewable energy generation, here. Yes, we can do better – but are already doing enormously better than almost all OECD countries – largely through hydro and geothermal electricity production – and hugely better than countries, like China, which are still bringing new coal-fired power plants into operation.

          https://yearbook.enerdata.net/renewables/renewable-in-electricity-production-share.html

          If NZ reduces our agricultural emissions – as is the current plan, only for other countries to increase theirs – or, worse still, to fund other countries to increase theirs – there has been zero benefit across the world.

          https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/132261664/governments-climate-donations-set-up-dairy-farming-overseas

          Yes, of course, there is widespread benefit from reducing the impact on local waterways of agriculture (any agriculture – not just animal production) – but this has no impact on CO2 generation.

  9. Phillip ure 9
    29 June 2023 at 1:26 pm

    I have no intention of unpacking what you are offering.. tho'you seem to follow the we won't do anything until everyone else does school of thought..

    And to note that industrial behemoths like germany have been cutting their emissions.. whereas here…with our good luck of clean energy..we nonetheless have been increasing our emissions..

    What to explain away that..eh..?

    And that uncomfortable fact that my footprint is just north of 4 tonnes ..yours is nearer 24 tonne..

    How to explain that away..?

    • Phillip ure 9.1
      29 June 2023 at 1:32 pm

      And as a further nail in the coffin of the nz flesh-exporting industries..

      Is that the FDA in america has just approved for sale..the first lab-grown chicken..

      'For whom does the bell toll..?

      It tolls for thee..'…nz..

      • Belladonna 9.1.1
        29 June 2023 at 1:39 pm

        We've had this debate on TS previously.

        You (and presumably) other vegans wouldn't eat lab-grown meat because of the 'ick' factor of eating meat.
        The rest of us wouldn't eat lab-grown meat because of the 'ick' factor of factory-produced meat (and the various risks of the supply chain – remember BSE)

        It may well have a niche – but is unlikely to replace naturally grown meat in any appreciable way – though it may add to the diet in poorer countries/communities.

        And, is virtually, entirely irrelevant in the CO2 generation issue which is well over 70% from fossil fuel burning across the world.

    • Belladonna 9.2
      29 June 2023 at 1:34 pm

      And that uncomfortable fact that my footprint is just north of 4 tonnes ..yours is nearer 24 tonne..

      Why, by explaining the fact, that seems to be escaping you, that even if the whole of NZ miraculously suddenly became vegan – our agricultural emissions would not drop appreciably. Since the majority of them are for export.

      An uncomfortable fact that your calculator appears to ignore.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 9.2.1
        29 June 2023 at 2:38 pm

        An uncomfortable fact that your calculator appears to ignore.

        Some uncomfortable truths are ignored by more than just calculators sad

        National plan could halve NZ’s ambition on methane [13 June 2023]
        National's agricultural emissions policy is unlikely to meet New Zealand's current climate targets, so the party wants to weaken them

        Analysis: The National Party's plan to price climate pollution from livestock kicks the can down the road another five years.

        Currently, pricing is set to take effect from the beginning of 2025, but Christopher Luxon said on Monday the party would legislate to change that deadline to "no later than 2030", if elected. That would be yet another setback in the decades-long debate over making farmers pay for their climate pollution.

        Meanwhile, NZ could be going "back to the drawing board" – still, no hurry eh. At least The Herald's headline was quite witty – National's climate moo-turn – right up there with our last National party PM's 2003 protest sign, referencing BSE.
        Thank god for the gift of laughter.

        National pulls support for He Waka Eke Noa [7 June 2023]
        The National Party has found itself fighting off a farming flip-flop.

        Leader Christopher Luxon has revealed the party is pulling its support for He Waka Eke Noa – a group made up of industry leaders trying to put a price on agricultural emissions.

        National has labelled the process as dead, accusing the Government of not listening to the primary sector.

        Luxon said National wanted to go back to the drawing board.

        Climate change: How is my country doing on tackling it?
        Every year countries pledge to cut their greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to curb the impacts of climate change.

        But still global temperatures keep rising.

        So which countries are on track with their climate commitments to help stick to 1.5°C and which are not? Find out using the interactive chart below.

      • Phillip ure 9.2.2
        29 June 2023 at 5:31 pm

        The uncomfortable fact you seem unaware of..is that highest quality flesh is going to be able to be made locally…. therefore no call for our animal-based flesh-products..from the ends of the earth..

        And make no mistake….that lab grown flesh is real chicken…it is not an imitation chicken…you would be unable to tell the difference….

        This is going to be a major disrupter to our flesh-based export industries..

        Equivalent to what the motor car did to the carriage building industries…that were once so dominant..

    • Belladonna 9.3
      29 June 2023 at 1:43 pm

      And to note that industrial behemoths like germany have been cutting their emissions.. whereas here…with our good luck of clean energy..we nonetheless have been increasing our emissions..

      What to explain away that..eh..?

      Had you bothered to follow the link I'd provided, you'd have seen that Germany is at 41% of renewables, while NZ is at 90%. As in any change, the last 10% is always the hardest (and, TBH, probably unachievable to reach 100% – certainly with the current technologies).

      • Phillip ure 9.3.1
        29 June 2023 at 5:22 pm

        Thank you for underlining my note that despite our good luck with renewables…our emissions are rising..whereas germany only has 41% of the renewables..yet theirs have steadily dropped…

        Aren't we doing well..?

        • Belladonna 9.3.1.1
          29 June 2023 at 5:44 pm

          Thanks for highlighting my point that NZ is already at 90%, whereas Germany is only at 41%.

          Where do you think China is in this?