How New Zealand Reconnects With the World

Written By: - Date published: 12:06 pm, February 3rd, 2022 - 113 comments
Categories: covid-19, immigration, International, jacinda ardern, uncategorized - Tags:

From Prime Minister Ardern’s speech this morning:

“Beginning with step 1.

Today I am announcing that fully vaccinated Kiwis and other currently eligible travellers from Australia will be able to travel to New Zealand from 11:59pm Sunday 27 February, and instead of going into MIQ, will be able to self-isolate.

In step 2, just two weeks later, fully vaccinated New Zealanders and other currently eligible travellers from the rest of the world will also be able to travel into New Zealand without going through MIQ.

The two weeks between each of these steps has been requested by our public health advisors to give time for our systems to adjust for the likelihood of more cases in our community, and for our border systems to keep scaling up in the safest way possible.

At step 2 at 11:59pm on Sunday 13 March, there will also be an expanded border exception for critical workers, and skilled workers earning at least 1.5 times the median wage, who will also be eligible to enter New Zealand, along with highly skilled workers’ family members who may have been separated from their loved ones.

This means that health workers, farm managers, horticultural workers, tech sector professionals, those working for accounting services, in education and construction, will all be eligible to enter New Zealand, self-isolate for a short period and then go about their business. Adding to the more than 17,000 critical workers who have already come to New Zealand since our borders closed.

Our Working Holiday Schemes will also reopen in stages from step 2.

Step 3 begins from 11:59pm Tuesday 12 April. Here we further extend our border extension to include a large international student cohort of up to 5,000 students for entry ahead of semester 2 and temporary visa holders who still meet relevant visa requirements.

Step 4 sees the biggest expansion yet, and includes our Australian cousins and all other visitors and business travellers who can normally enter New Zealand without a visa. This stage is likely to begin when we have much larger case numbers than we have now. For planning, we anticipate this stage will begin no later than July. I want to place strong emphasis on this being the latest we expect this to begin. There is a high likelihood of this date coming forward as we progress through the next stage of the pandemic.

From July those on the new Accredited Employer Work Visa will open including for workers offshore. At this point, the critical worker border exception will be removed. The new work visa will be mainly available to workers earning over the median wage as part of the Immigration Rebalance changes. The Minister of Immigration will have more to say about this and other immigration rebalance measures soon.

And finally, step 5 begins in October and includes all other visitors and students who require a visa to enter New Zealand, with normal visa processing resuming.”

Update:  video of the speech is added.  The speech lays out the background and the rationale very well.

113 comments on “How New Zealand Reconnects With the World ”

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  1. Shanreagh 1
    3 February 2022 at 12:21 pm

    Our Working Holiday Schemes will also reopen in stages from step 2.

    Oh no, there goes any hope of realistic wages in some of the sectors that these people work in, and work for resident NZers.

    I would have delayed all but the NZers and RSE workers until we had seen how NZ was affected after they had come in.

    Steps 4 & 5 includes all the shitting in the bushes, littering camper vanners.

    Hopefully this will enable Govt to drive forward ie strike while the iron is hot on housing and climate change.

    I accept that this is a lose:lose situation. I quite liked our 'hermit kingdom' without all the tourists……sigh.

    • Patricia Bremner 1.1
      3 February 2022 at 12:39 pm

      Points noted, but it will not be BAU and she clearly stated that was not the plan.

      We have an incredibly sick son needing surgery which we may have to help with as he has struggled through 3 years of waiting lists and so called “Elective surgery” (Gall stones). He also suffers with Sessile serrated Adenomas which need to be located and removed yearly before they become cancerous. He is 4 months late for that. So like many we are conflicted and relieved in equal measure

      We will probably lose the election, unless the boosting works. Cleft stick for the Government.
      We are going to experience some but not all of overseas problems with the virus and its fallout.
      A great number will come to see family/friends… the rest may hold off ’till they see how we cope.

      • Shanreagh 1.1.1
        3 February 2022 at 1:14 pm

        First Patricia let us hope that these arrangements will help…your son is in Aus isn't he and you would be able to bring him back here or go over to support him over there? That certainty is valuable.

        I am not wanting BAU.

        I want things to happen to improve things. I want every move to open us us up to be weighted against a publicly available matrix that says 'doing it this way will help NZ and NZers in these ways' a bit like the wellbeing part of the budget.

        (Tourist operators, agricultural conglomerates and Fonterra getting wealthier does not count for me as I went through the period of the trickledown theory long enough to know that it is just a theory)

        Opening up too fast may affect all of us in terms of the 'endemic pandemic'.

        Tourism needed the chance to have a drastic overhaul, wages also. The concept that migrant workers will be eligible if they will have jobs that pay 1.5 times the median wage could be good or bad. It could either

        create a new class of worker who is paid wages that resident citizens are locked out of

        force employers to pull wages for resident workers up by their bootstraps.

        Hopefully doing something will stop some of the Moaning Minnies but I am follower of the Winston Churchill phrase "Never waste a good crisis".

        We can get things done, not by denying that BAU was an option but denying that in some (most) cases there is any merit in doing this. We should go forward and bring forward the stuff that works. Mind blowing dirty tourism and dairy farming is not something we need continue with.

        Our immigration tap needs to have the flexibility still with the traffic light system should our health systems get overwhelmed. I would hate to have gone through all this then find that all the returning NZers and workers, and tourists will keep us in Covid mode. This means that our other health needs still won't be addressed.

    • Tricledrown 1.2
      3 February 2022 at 1:24 pm

      Tourism will not recover to previous levels anytime soon.

      Fuel costs have risen substantially Planes have been grounded,Pilots are already in short supply.

      The Pandemic has made people more wary of taking risks.

      Seasonal Workers are needed now and for those who are vaccinated and boosted they should be allowed in immediately if only double vaccinated we could boost during MIQ.

    • Grey Area 1.3
      3 February 2022 at 4:26 pm

      I quite liked our 'hermit kingdom' without all the tourists……sigh.

      Likewise. I got a sense that we got our own country back.

  2. Ad 2
    3 February 2022 at 12:31 pm

    So is this enough for Labour to hit the bottom and start a rise?

    • Blazer 2.1
      3 February 2022 at 12:44 pm

      No they are damned,especially by the concerted efforts of MSM,whatever they do.

      The Natz black ops will be working overtime.

      It is already evident,Luxury Luxon's m.o is a copy of Key's successful strategy…'we care about people'…blush

      • Tricledrown 2.1.1
        3 February 2022 at 1:37 pm

        Labour should play that video of the young girl (without pony tails) that John Key promised a brighter future, She left for Australia because National did swfa and had the luxury of an $80 billion capital injection into the economy from insurance payouts via the 2010 Canterbury earthquakes.

        National muddled through with election bribes (meaningless tax cuts that gave a sugar boost 6 months out from each election).

        Luxon is trying to reheat the same message in a different wrapper .They failed last time after 9 yrs.

        What's different ACT has a much bigger tail to wag Luxon with. So ACT will put a hand break on any National initiatives for meaningful change.

        If ACT keeps dropping and only has 1 or 2 MP's and a deal in Epsom National may have a clear run at changing the lot of the 40% of NZers living hand to mouth.

        Labour have 18 months to pull finger and make some real differences.

    • Patricia Bremner 2.2
      3 February 2022 at 12:51 pm

      Hello Ad, sincerely hope so. As people come back to our highly vaccinated population, the improvements made by this Government, and more promotion of the work done and to come may keep enough on board. They need to cement in what they can and diss Luxon's broad brush rubbish by questioning who how and when their policies may be examined. He does not have the range or type of necessary talent in their current group. Most of whom have blots on their copy books.

  3. Adrian 3
    3 February 2022 at 12:44 pm

    There are just a such if not more littering and crap in the park-up areas now than before Covid, so maybe it was Kiwis all along.
    And BTW, if foreigners caused all the road accidents how come there has not been a drop in the road toll?

    I too have enjoyed the emptier roads but don’t forget, the young kids visiting here on work visas only replaced the Kiwi kids doing the same thing overseas. Do you want to ban ours from travelling or get rid of the reciprocity deal?

    • Blazer 3.1
      3 February 2022 at 12:46 pm

      Do you have any evidence at all to back up any of the points you raise?

      • Patricia Bremner 3.1.1
        3 February 2022 at 1:00 pm

        Going by the behaviour of folk on our stretch of straight road, they drive like a cork out of a champagne bottle.

    • Ad 3.2
      3 February 2022 at 12:59 pm

      It would be a much more interesting exercise to prove what will permanently change after COVID, just use the following headings:

      – Transport, including public transport numbers in Auckland

      – The entire restaurant industry nationwide

      – The entire international tourism industry

      – Volume of outbound travel per year

      – How long it will take for immigration numbers to resume

      – Poverty and exclusion

      – Economic sectors that are growing fast

      – Role of the state

      You could always write an actual post on it

      • Shanreagh 3.2.1
        3 February 2022 at 2:19 pm

        I for one would not be able to find the evidence that it is either permanently changing or will just lead to BAU. Your points though could be a good start to the matrix idea I was thinking of

        • Transport, including public transport numbers in Auckland
          Will this plan lead to greater uptake of NZ workers in the transport construction industry including the passing on of transferable skills

        – The entire restaurant industry nationwide, will this plan lead to more jobs for NZers who want to work in Hospo, better wages and conditions for workers working in hospo including working on career paths

        – The entire international tourism industry will this plan lead to sustainable tourism in NZ, including better wages, conditions and careers paths for NZ workers, retention of profits in NZ, taxation of profits in NZ

        – Volume of outbound travel per year. Devise a way to test if outward bound travel has an impact on the ehalth and well being of NZers including the $$$ well-being

        – How long it will take for immigration numbers to resume. Test the logic behind a need for continued high numbers of immigration. Test the logic behind the relatively low numbers in the refugee quotas. Test if a lessening of number of immigrants could be balanced against a higher number of refugees. Test check the process particularly claims of shortages against a unwillingness by employers to train up NZ workers.

        – Poverty and exclusion Test that growing numbers of immigrants and tourists will not prevent access to housing, transport, outdoors

        – Economic sectors that are growing fast. Actually listen to those who know about the psyche of NZ entrepreneurs. NZers are 'fast followers', we have good innovators but by far our best work has come from taking an idea and improving it.

        https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/2209-emerging-growth-opportunities-nz-food-beverage-pdf

        https://nzbusiness.co.nz/article/fan-page-followers-how-attract-and-engage-them

        Does the plan focus on entrepreneurs who will play to this psyche?

        Does the plan address continued commodification in the export sector particularly dairy and forestry? Are the immigrants being encouraged to work in sectors that are breaking down commodification, are exporters being encouraged to do this?

        – Role of the state

        Obviously we need the state here light handed but checking that promised gains to NZ & NZers have eventuated. This is not the time for unwise wholesale public sector restructurings.

        • Shanreagh 3.2.1.1
          3 February 2022 at 2:32 pm

          Then there is this from Jenny etc In Open Mike 3/2/22

          .https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-03-02-2022/

          2.1

          Does this plan for immigration border opening ensure that growth is responsible and not infinite

          'There can not be infinite growth on a finite world."

          • Shanreagh 3.2.1.1.1
            3 February 2022 at 3:32 pm

            Just getting back to this matrix idea.

            First to sponsor people to NZ is a privilege not a right, emigrating to NZ is a privilege not a right.

            Where employers/businesses are wanting to have workers imported

            the matrix should address

            housing how will these workers be housed, if on orchards is this housing healthy, clean and fit for purpose

            if workers live off site, how will they be transported to work? Is this a no cost? are they able to use public transport ? If employer worker transportation is used is this energy efficient?

            if imported workers are going to industries with high sector accident rates how do these sponsors figure ie we should not import workers to work for employers who have bad safety records, noted they pay higher ACC levies but we should not send breadwinner workers home with injuries.

            Similarly employers who have animal safety breaches or dirty dairying or mud farming breaches should not be allowed to import workers

            Industries in NZ that are high and avoidable landfill waste dumpers eg textile, tyres** and building industries should be able to use imported labour only in conjunction with waste management practices…Synthetic clothes are hugely energy inefficient to make as fabric and then the completed garment then sheds into waste water* for the term of its wearable life after which time it is dumped.

            ** we might have already addressed this?

            *https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-43023-x

            We should not allow businesses to use seasonal or imported labour just so they can keep costs down and therefore not have to look at upgrading to more sustainable, energy efficient and pollution free practices.

        • Stuart Munro 3.2.1.2
          3 February 2022 at 4:18 pm

          You would expect competently monitored granting of work permits would require actual efforts to recruit train and pay NZers for those roles in subsequent years, so that someone who acquired say 100 staff one year would have a cap of about 60 permits the following year, with further decreases down the road.

          Measures like that would have seen the early demise of things like the slave fishermen rort, the liquor store wage thefts, and the worst horticultural worker abuses. But of course MBIE did nothing of the kind, being incompetent, and not giving a toss about the public interest.

          Labour might as well lose if they plan to take us back to this kind of shitty mismanagement.

          • Shanreagh 3.2.1.2.1
            3 February 2022 at 5:24 pm

            I couldn't agree more. I have the sense that the employers who have this overwhelming reliance on overseas labour are actually not paying enough to attract NZ labour. Coupled with poor housing and no structure to give anything like a settled job they rely, on people from overseas whose home situation is so dire that they are happy to work in these situations It does not make me feel so good either for work willing NZers and our overseas neighbours. .

            The gradually restricting numbers is a good idea.

    • Shanreagh 3.3
      3 February 2022 at 1:24 pm

      Well I have noticed a huge decrease in the numbers of campervans along many of our coastal locations, they camped for times in parking areas, with washing lines etc, over flowing rubbish bins .The campervans, minimal numbers compared to just before the pandemic, now seem to be gone by evening, perhaps traveling Kiwis who stay in designated spots.

      We had incredible (I mean wacky) ideas about freedom camping…….making LA pay for this only to find that our incoming tourists just ignored them.

      This is what I mean by rethinking the incoming tourist $$$$. It is like the old argument over exporting commodities or value added.

      My defence is that I have been a Moaning Minnie on this over use/over reliance on this mode of tourism from well before the pandemic.

      I travel on the open roads relatively frequently and have enjoyed the emptier roads, albeit the trucks are there. I have not noticed an increase in bad driving behaviour.

    • GreenBus 3.4
      3 February 2022 at 2:33 pm

      Adrian @3

      "There are just a such if not more littering and crap in the park-up areas now than before Covid, so maybe it was Kiwis all along."

      Yes, I think that also. As keen housebusers we frequently stay alongside foreigners

      in their little campers (sometimes girls ask to hide behind us for security) and not once have seen any rubbish or mess left behind by them.

      Carloads of kiwi's on a visit to attractions without toilets are the problem I reckon.

      People don't go behind the bush if they have a toilet with them, which virtually all campers do. And what about all the nappies? Can't blame the tourists for that!

      Still, less is more and we prefer our hermit kingdom and better wages for the moment.

  4. Tricledrown 4
    3 February 2022 at 12:58 pm

    Blazer 2million visitors a year not coming.

    I have noticed more reckless attitudes on the road.

    And more careless driving directly after lockdown.

    People not driving for sometime not taking proper care including me

    When out on the road it can kill take care. I give myself a good telling off if I make a mistake in the hope to minimise mistakes.Also I look at what I did wrong to look at ways to improve safety.

    My Work van has a blind spot when looking left on an angle intersection so I try and bring it to 90° so I can clearly see all the traffic.

    Take care on the roads everyone can be a better driver ,patience and courtesy is a good start.

  5. arkie 5
    3 February 2022 at 1:19 pm

    Probably no coincidence the PM delivered the speech about 'life after COVID' in front of a BusinessNZ banner.

    • Shanreagh 5.1
      3 February 2022 at 1:31 pm

      Oh dear. Hope it shuts them up but it won't. They are like addicts…….'gimme more,' 'that's not enough, we need more than that now 'cos now we are needier and by the way have you noticed that NZ depends on us and we are not going to change our modus operandi one little bit.'

      Excuse my sarcasm.

      Quickly rushes to check papers for compliments to Govt on a forward thinking opening plan from business people. I may be some time especially if I have to find all the left wing media (referred to up thread) quoting left wing business owners.

  6. DS 6
    3 February 2022 at 1:19 pm

    Pure, unadulterated idiocy, as inspired by pressure from sociopaths.

    • Blazer 6.1
      3 February 2022 at 1:57 pm

      Well the WA State Govt has been under the same pressure from business,and still refuses to…buckle.

      All restrictions and MIQ remain in…place.

      • Poission 6.1.1
        3 February 2022 at 2:01 pm

        the mining companies said the cost of staffing shortages from covid and shutdowns of sites,outweighed the benefits of a greater staff pool.

        • Blazer 6.1.1.1
          3 February 2022 at 2:15 pm

          The mining lobby is so powerful I am surprised the WA Govt has been so steadfast.

          I remember when Gillard was P.M,she tried to introduce a modest tax on the big miners profits and their campaign was saturation condemnation,and it…worked.

      • Shanreagh 6.1.2
        3 February 2022 at 2:23 pm

        Yes it will be interesting to watch. They may not have the strident nay sayers breathing fire and brimstone that we have had to contend with here in NZ.

      • DS 6.1.3
        3 February 2022 at 2:36 pm

        Yep. Good on McGowan.

      • Poission 6.1.4
        3 February 2022 at 9:09 pm

        Scott Morrison backs WA to maintain hard border,

        Scott Morrison has sensationally claimed West Australia Premier Mark McGowan did the right thing in delaying the state’s border reopening.

        WA was originally slated to reopen its border to other states on February 5, but last month Mr McGowan announced that would be pushed back due to the Omicron surge in the eastern states.

        The delay has been widely panned.

        But on Thursday, Mr Morrison conceded the WA Premier had done right by his state, saying Omicron was a “very different virus” and changed the goalposts.

        “The things we were doing before, don’t work the same way under the Omicron virus,” Mr Morrison told Perth’s 6PR radio.

        “As a result, you’ve got to reset, and you’ve got to rethink the things you were doing in the eastern states.

        https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/scott-morrisons-huge-call-on-west-australian-border/news-story/fdd074fc53f85ce4fe253d519d391c03

  7. gsays 7
    3 February 2022 at 1:40 pm

    OK, that's what us reconnecting with the rest of the world looks like.

    Howzabout giving us an idea what some of us reconnecting with the rest of us looks like? I.e. when does the passport system get dismantled and put away?

    What does the state of play have to be for that divisive tool not to be used?

    Or do we just keep using (or not using) the businesses that are a little more inclusive in their approach to the mandates.

    • Anne 7.1
      3 February 2022 at 5:27 pm

      "What does the state of play have to be for that divisive tool not to be used?"

      When Covid finally releases its solid grip and stops killing and maiming millions of people around the world.

  8. Tiger Mountain 8
    3 February 2022 at 1:59 pm

    Class capitulation to business and finance capital via immense media and business lobby pressure–pure and simple imo.

  9. Paul Campbell 9
    3 February 2022 at 2:02 pm

    This is OK if you live in Auckland, but I live in Dunedin – how would I come back from a biz trip and self isolate for 10 days at home without spending a bunch of hours in an airport or on a plane sharing my potential virus?

    Probably the best thing I could do for the country would be to camp out in the Koru Lounge I guess

  10. McFlock 10
    3 February 2022 at 2:44 pm

    I really don't feel good about this. Seems to me that we'd get a similar result by hiring a cropduster and randomly dropping covid across the length of the country.

    I'm worried that the government has turned into a bunch of cheese-eating surrender monkeys after believing bullshit around the polls.

    But I've been wrong about them before, and they've done pretty damned well so far. I guess I just have to buckle up for the ride.

    • Enough is Enough 10.1
      3 February 2022 at 2:52 pm

      We are not surrendering. We are taking it on. As a population we have built up our defences to a highler level than basically anywhere else in the world.

      COVID is endemic. It will be us forever. At some point the borders open. That time is now when we are at this ridiculously high level of being vaccinated.

      • McFlock 10.1.1
        3 February 2022 at 3:20 pm

        "Taking it on". Fuck that macho crap. The best fight is the one you win by avoiding.

        Personally, I'd wait a few more months and see if we can get an omicron-specific vaccine.

        This isn't going to boost our economy. If/when we hit a thousand cases a day, people will keep staying home. Also, people will die directly, and indirectly. Which makes me wonder what the govt think the point is of the traffic light system.

        • Shanreagh 10.1.1.1
          3 February 2022 at 3:34 pm

          Agree McFlock. Heavy pressure has obviously been exerted. Just have to hope this this is not the forerunner of some mini neolib madness. .

        • Enough is Enough 10.1.1.2
          3 February 2022 at 4:01 pm

          Its not about boosting the economy. Its about coming to the realisation that COVID will be endemic and there is no chance of ever living in a COVID free world.

          We either isolate from that world indefintley. Or we rejoin in a planned and gradual way as the government has proposed.

          • McFlock 10.1.1.2.1
            3 February 2022 at 4:09 pm

            Its about coming to the realisation that COVID will be endemic and there is no chance of ever living in a COVID free world.

            We either isolate from that world indefintley. Or we rejoin in a planned and gradual way as the government has proposed.

            What is wrong with "indefinitely"?

            Why are we acting like babies, demanding firm dates in an unpredictable situation?

            Why fight off OG covid, delta, and surrender to omicron? Wouldn't that open us up to upsilon, mu, and the eye of horus variants as well? How do we know that even the branch covidians would have difficulty describing any of those as "mild"?

            Sure, define conditions. I'd say a vaccine that does the bulk of stopping infection spread (not just symptoms) and a decent process ofr updating it for new variants, like we do every year for influenza.

            But learn to deal with "indefinite" periods of time. I've found it to be a valuable life skill.

            • pat 10.1.1.2.1.1
              3 February 2022 at 4:16 pm

              "What is wrong with "indefinitely"?"

              Because indefinitely ended when omicron entered the community…the projection is for a peak in community transmission in feb/march even before any relaxation of the border was considered.

              • McFlock …
                3 February 2022 at 4:20 pm

                Which is another reason this announcement worries me – we're planning to sprinkle how many cases a day across the country just as community cases are spiking? Sounds like pouring gasoline on a fire.

                • pat …
                  3 February 2022 at 4:30 pm

                  I think they have given themselves room to revisit and revise should things not play out as projected….and its possible it wont.

                  If we have 80,000 community cases a day i doubt that 'sprinkling' some expats will make a big difference.

                  • McFlock …
                    3 February 2022 at 4:37 pm

                    But if we have only a few hundred or thousand a day, that sprinkling could help us get to 80k/day.

                    Not just the number, but the fact it would be creating new clusters in different locations around the country.

                    • pat …
                      3 February 2022 at 4:44 pm

                      The first change dosnt occur until the end of Feb….modelling has us peaking in feb/march (though we are behind those projections currently)….we are not going to be swamped with returning kiwis the first day the border eases.

                      The further changes are staged through to October….plenty of opportunity to change should circumstances dictate.

                      “Not just the number, but the fact it would be creating new clusters in different locations around the country.”

                      If we have anything like that level of community transmission there will be very few locations in NZ that arnt exposed….we travel within the country regardless of border settings.

                    • McFlock …
                      3 February 2022 at 4:52 pm

                      It's funny, I haven't religiously looked up projections on this outbreak. But we are managing to keep numbers away from the steep jump in numbers faced overseas.

                      A part of me hopes we might be able to keep numbers low or gradual. I'm not a complete pessimist 🙂

                    • pat …
                      3 February 2022 at 4:56 pm

                      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/460299/omicron-modelling-suggests-nz-could-face-peak-of-80-000-daily-infections

                      It is but modelling…but I expect the Gov and MoH are basing their decisions on something….(other than just polls)

                    • McFlock …
                      3 February 2022 at 5:12 pm

                      Well, going by that we seem to be tracking close to the nominal for "80% mask use". Also, their booster/3rd shot level is calibrated for 6 months, so halving that period will have an effect.

                      But the old issue is that the confidence intervals are very wide. For daily infections, the peak "80k/day" could be 3k/day up to a quarter million a day.

                      So a bit early to be giving up and just welcoming it into your neighbourhood.

                    • pat …
                      3 February 2022 at 5:17 pm

                      "These are of course predictions and should be viewed as such, however they have been given credence by New Zealand's leading expertsincluding University of Otago professors Nick Wilson and Michael Baker: "Our impression is that this work is of high quality and should be considered by NZ policy-makers … [it's] an organisation with a very strong track record for analysing health data (with some of the best epidemiologists, health data scientists and computer scientists in the world)."

                      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/460299/omicron-modelling-suggests-nz-could-face-peak-of-80-000-daily-infections

                      As said I expect the Gov are basing their decisions on something…and im listening to the Minister on the radio now and he is pointing out that they are expecting substantial community spread regardless of borders, and he acknowledges the level is not yet at the projections and credits community controls.

                    • McFlock …
                      3 February 2022 at 5:33 pm

                      yeah, "could face peak" is not an indication of actual likelihood.

                      It's a wide projection of infections (as opposed to a peak of 11k reported cases) based on "Vaccine distribution stays at expected pace. Future mask use is the mean of mask use over the last 7 days. Mobility increases in proportion with vaccine coverage. 80% of those vaccinated get a third dose at six months in countries where available." Also a constant number of tests.

                      It's a bit like the original projection at the start of covid: media reported the worst-case scenario of 80k dead, but that was for a literal "business as usual": no masks, no restrictions, no individuals changing their behaviour.

                      Same story here: if we change, the projections we use change. And we can use the projections to see how we can change the projections for the better.

                      They're not an excuse to fail, they're an indication of what happens when we fail.

                    • pat …
                      3 February 2022 at 5:45 pm

                      You're highlighting the limitations of modelling?

                      7 day average of cases has doubled this week.

                      Again, they have staggered the opening and that provides opportunity to monitor and assess.

                      They have more than just covid to worry about.

                    • McFlock …
                      3 February 2022 at 6:06 pm

                      I'm highlighting that models are not written in stone, nor are they inevitable.

                      For example, importing new cases and sprinkling them around the country is not a factor in that model, so 80k infections a day might be an undercount.

                      Sure, the government has a lot of advice and corresponding considerations.

                      I just hope "argh fuck the polls are dipping, we might be able to get away with this and it might help us" is not a consideration.

                      Similarly, I also hope "argh fuck, we're all doomed anyway" is similarly not a consideration.

                      Like I said, all one can do is hope, and buckle up for the ride.

            • Enough is Enough 10.1.1.2.1.2
              3 February 2022 at 4:38 pm

              Hmm interesting position to take.

              I am glad the government does not agree with it.

              Have a good day

              • McFlock …
                3 February 2022 at 4:49 pm

                You'd rather they stick to arbitrary dates regardless of the circumstances at the time? Or maybe come up with arbitrary dates and then change their minds – that'd be popular /sarc

                Mate of mine is set to quit his job in a few months, when the math on mortgages vs partner's salary ends up healthy. But he had to take leave recently, and that affects the math, do he's extended it out a couple of weeks. But then he doesn't have Simon Bridges or Hosking about to publicly rant about his flip-flopping, and so on.

                He knows the conditions necessary for that step. He was happy to estimate a date based on that projection, but really the exact date was undetermined. Because he's a grown up who understands that shit changes.

    • tsmithfield 10.2
      3 February 2022 at 3:09 pm

      “I really don’t feel good about this.”

      Have some courage and get on with life. It had to happen sooner or later, and the government is still taking a fairly timid approach IMO.

      Good grief our ancestors would be ashamed of how soft and cosseted we seem to have become these days.

      • McFlock 10.2.1
        3 February 2022 at 3:13 pm

        Covid doesn't give a fuck about your courage. you can't bluster your way out of an infection.

        • tsmithfield 10.2.1.1
          3 February 2022 at 3:19 pm

          But, assuming you are fully vaxxed, and hopefully have a booster it shouldn't be much worse than a bad cold for most. I think even the PM said that in one of her conferences.

          We can't keep living in fear and locking ourselves away from the rest of the world forever. This thing could be around for a few years yet. So, if not now, when?

          Anyway, by the time the first kiwis start coming back in late February we will probably be having so many of our own cases that a few more imported ones won’t make much difference.

          • McFlock 10.2.1.1.1
            3 February 2022 at 3:34 pm

            I don't think I'll be hard hit. I think the country will be hard hit. Like every other fucking country in the world. I worry that the economic impact will be worse than the lockdowns and MIQ you lot like to complain about.

            But it's pretty consistent for a tory to assume that someone is concerned only as to how something might affect them, rather than others.

            "When"? For the duration.

            I could be wrong. There could be zero detectable negative repercussions with this stepped plan to import the virus. I hope I'm wrong.

            But the penalty for failure is high. That's a rational evaluation, not fear talking.

            • DS 10.2.1.1.1.1
              3 February 2022 at 3:40 pm

              Yep. Elderly people are in danger, even with the vaccine.

              And if people don't care about the elderly… recall that we'll all be elderly ourselves one day.

            • tsmithfield 10.2.1.1.1.2
              3 February 2022 at 3:41 pm

              I agree we probably will get hit hard. But, it is going to be playing whack-a-mole with this virus for a few years yet, the vaccines chasing the latest mutations.

              If we are going to wait until there is a time when we aren't going to be impacted by a surge of infections, we will be waiting a long time I think.

              How much money do you want the government to print or borrow? It was OK doing that while the rest of the world was doing the same. But, we will end up as a cot-case like Zimbabwe if we keep doing it ad-infinitum.

              • McFlock …
                3 February 2022 at 3:51 pm

                Because the rest of the world is doing so great when they open up?

                You're hoping the dollar hit will be slightly better if we risk a bunch more lives?

                We've done two years. We can do two more. But we likely won't have to. The endgame is a vaccine that stops spread as effectively as it stops symptoms, and a regular way to create and certify new vaccines against new variants.

                At the moment we're in a gap where we can protect individuals from symptoms, but the infection will still spread through society to find unprotected individuals (including vaccinated but still vulnerable people).

                Unless we get a vaccine that will fundamentally arrest the spread of the disease, people will still die and our ever-so-precious economy will still be hit by highly expensive disruption.

                Was this self-isolation plan accompanied by lightening the traffic light restrictions? No? Maybe think about what that means to your economy before asking "won't anyone think of the corporate returns".

              • DS …
                3 February 2022 at 3:57 pm

                Remind me of hyperinflation being set off at any point from 1860 to 1935, notwithstanding generations of extensive government borrowing?

                https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Debt_to_GDP_ratio_New_Zealand_Government_timeseriesnotitle_720by540.svg

                It's almost like hyperinflation requires more than government borrowing to set it off. You know, like massive destablisation? Which doesn't apply to our case?

                • Blazer …
                  3 February 2022 at 4:59 pm

                  Wall St is the epicentre of world finance.

                  The big banks there have very significant stakes in most western financial institutions.

                  The magic show that really began in 2008 has exploded with eye watering Q.E…how does it affect economies ,including ours?

                  'The Fed’s purchases of tens of billions of dollars a month of these securities creates artificial demand that would not otherwise exist, thus lowering the interest rates these securities need to offer, which also puts downward pressure on the interest rates of other debt instruments. This helps to sustain the Fed’s zero-bound interest rate policy on its benchmark rate, the Fed Funds rate. '

                  ' the long-term goal of QE was, in fact, to make saving money and expecting to earn a decent interest rate on it a fool’s errand year after year, thus forcing millions of people into riskier and riskier areas of investment, which has led to the unprecedented bubble in markets that we find ourselves in today – with no reliable exit plan by the Fed.'

                  'The conveyor belt began outside the Fed, with hedge funds that were not primary dealers. These hedge funds could borrow money from a big bank, buy a Treasury bill, and then have a primary dealer sell that Treasury bill to the Fed for new cash. In this way, the hedge funds could borrow and buy billions of dollars in bonds, and sell them to the Fed for a profit. Once the conveyor belt was up and running, it began magically transforming bonds into cash'

                  excerpts from the book-The Lords of Easy Money-Christopher Leonard

                • tsmithfield …
                  4 February 2022 at 7:37 am

                  "It's almost like hyperinflation requires more than government borrowing to set it off. You know, like massive destablisation?"

                  You mean like destroying our tourism sector, which grew to be one of our biggest, if not our biggest earner? I think it even got higher than dairy at one point.

                  We have gotten away with money printing and borrowing because the rest of the world was doing it, so everything was relative. But we won't keep getting away with it once the rest of the world has moved on which they are doing at the moment.

                  If that is what you want, then fine. But if you get it, don't complain about rising rents and living costs etc. Because that is the unavoidable consequence of what seems to be wanted by many here.

          • Poission 10.2.1.1.2
            3 February 2022 at 3:37 pm

            Should we open up like say New York,where restaurants,and hospitality are going to the wall,despite enhanced Federal and state welfare subsidy ie around 10% of US job losses are in NY.

            https://www.osc.state.ny.us/files/reports/osdc/pdf/report-17-2022.pdf

            January restaurant sales are down 60% in NY.

            The wisdom of the masses,show self preservation of the individual and their families,outweigh naive political preservation policy.

          • Shanreagh 10.2.1.1.3
            3 February 2022 at 3:45 pm

            We can't keep living in fear ……

            Who are these people?

            Thought we had discussed this once before (with Bill who had the same line except with the addition of running and hair on fire) and found that it was some thing of a beat-up.

            I would actually like to know facts and figures about us running around fearful with the controls we have in place now.

            At first glance it seems too far too fast and some of us are carefully and calmly concerned about our country and our people. NB no running, no hair on fire, no fear.

            I for one am disappointed, that at first glance all the positive steps forward we could have done seem to have been flopped away by reverting to a BAU approach. Very disappointing….

            However there may be nuances and silver linings there that are not apparent at my first glances.

            • Blazer 10.2.1.1.3.1
              3 February 2022 at 5:02 pm

              Tell me…if you had a 5 y.o child…would you get him/her vaccinated?

              • Shanreagh …
                3 February 2022 at 5:27 pm

                Yes.

                Just like all the other vaccines on the schedule.

                I would not want to lose them from something preventable.

      • Poission 10.2.2
        3 February 2022 at 3:22 pm

        Leviticus 13.46

        All the days wherein the plague shall be in him he shall be defiled; he is unclean: he shall dwell alone; without the camp shall his habitation be.

        Taleb et al.

        The Ottoman Empire integrated Byzantine knowledge accumulated since at least the Plague of Justinian; it is sad to see ancient cultures more risk-conscious, better learners from history, and economically more effective than modern governments. They avoided modern “evidence-based” reductions that, as we saw, are insulting to both science and wisdom. And, had it not been for such a collective ancestral risk-awareness and understanding of asymmetry, we doubt that many of us would be here today.

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7572356/#fn5

        • tsmithfield 10.2.2.1
          3 February 2022 at 3:26 pm

          I don't think they had modern medicine or vaccination back then.

          • DS 10.2.2.1.1
            3 February 2022 at 3:45 pm

            No, but people who lived through the horrors of smallpox and polio might have been a bit more accepting of public health measures. Those people were doing all they could, with the knowledge they had. The world of the 2020s literally prioritises shopping and overseas travel over people's lives.

            • tsmithfield 10.2.2.1.1.1
              3 February 2022 at 3:52 pm

              What we have now is nothing like smallpox or polio.

              My mother had polio as a little girl and she was told she would never walk. Though she did end up winning medals for dancing.

              • DS …
                3 February 2022 at 4:03 pm

                What we have now has death rates nothing like flu. And, more importantly, has the potential to collapse the health system.

                Respecting health measures because they literally save people lives seems an unfashionable position these days.

              • Dennis Frank …
                3 February 2022 at 4:05 pm

                My mother had polio as a little girl and she was told she would never walk. Though she did end up winning medals for dancing.

                The moral of this story lies in the extent to which it shows that listening to medical experts is a waste of time. You did connect those dots?

                If not, you could be the kind of person that rationalises things like this: "The medical expert assured her that she would never walk. So she thought to herself well, he never said I won't be able to dance."

                A lateral thinker will always find an escape clause when presented with an unpalatable reality. Trump, for instance. The human potential movement shaped elite boomer thinking. Ain't dead yet!

              • Shanreagh …
                3 February 2022 at 4:35 pm

                So you know all about Long Covid? Do tell.

                We do not know the probable long term health costs at all. That we don't know is one of the reasons that we were taking a nuanced approach so that we put as few of our people at risk for this as possible.

                NB Long Covid can come from mild infections.

                https://jim.bmj.com/content/70/1/61

                https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/view/-omicron-the-pandemic-killer-idea-ignores-dangers-of-long-covid

                Those who may have been ventilated/intubated also can suffer from long term specific weaknesses, known about in ICU/HDU medicine before Covid arrived.

                You mum was very lucky, one of my friends had polio and it left her with something like a dowagers hump and from about 12 years ago post polio syndrome

                Post-polio syndrome (PPS) is a disorder of the nerves and muscles. It happens in some people many years after they have had polio. PPS may cause new muscle weakness that gets worse over time, pain in the muscles and joints, and tiredness. People with PPS often feel exhausted.

                https://www.cedars-sinai.org/health-library/diseases-and-conditions/p/post-polio-syndrome.html

      • DS 10.2.3
        3 February 2022 at 3:36 pm

        I'm sure the generations who lived through the Depression and World Wars would be interested to discover their descendants whingeing about how hard it is to go on overseas travel. Because that's really what the media nonsense boils down to.

        • Shanreagh 10.2.3.1
          3 February 2022 at 3:46 pm

          True.

        • McFlock 10.2.3.2
          3 February 2022 at 4:01 pm

          I recall reading a WW2 naval memoir talking about how the author's compatriots had enlisted for the duration of the war, not knowing when that end might be. But they could visit home on rare occasions.

          Then they met a destroyer crewed by the Free French. Those guys were committed. The only way they'd see their families again was through total victory.

          Don't know how many of the Free French figured "it's been a couple of years, no sign of a fixed end date, might as well go home".

  11. pat 11
    3 February 2022 at 2:57 pm

    Couple of things

    Recent polls, and economic projections.

    The timing looks to coincide with an expected increase in community transmission (end of Feb) and the opening is graduated to manage the peak of community transmission (feb/march)….I imagine if things dont play out as anticipated then theres always room for review.

    • Poission 11.1
      3 February 2022 at 3:07 pm

      Step 4 sees the biggest expansion yet, and includes our Australian cousins and all other visitors and business travellers who can normally enter New Zealand without a visa. This stage is likely to begin when we have much larger case numbers than we have now. For planning, we anticipate this stage will begin no later than July. I want to place strong emphasis on this being the latest we expect this to begin. There is a high likelihood of this date coming forward as we progress through the next stage of the pandemic.

      Looks like as we will have a wildfire in NZ( high case load) they want to import more flammable goods.This the same argument that Seymour ( the shadow minister for mandatory euthanasia) proposed,and it is an unscientific illposed problem,promulgated by a card carrying imbecile.

  12. tsmithfield 12
    3 February 2022 at 3:30 pm

    This feels very weird to me. I seem to be one of the few here supporting what the government is doing, and I am from the right.

    • Shanreagh 12.1
      3 February 2022 at 3:50 pm

      This feels very weird to me. I seem to be one of the few here supporting what the government is doing, and I am from the right.

      Many of us know we had to reopen at some time. The timing is of concern for some but for me the missed opportunity to cement in a new step forward, a new way of doing things that does not rely on BAU that is disappointing. Hugely disappointing.

    • Shanreagh 12.2
      3 February 2022 at 4:16 pm

      What particular benefit is the new policy direction to your business. Don't need to name names but I would be interested. I guess as a corollary what in the immigration/export field affected your business in the old policy settings? smiley

      Not interested in small govt, non interference in citizens lives generalities or that sort of thing.

      NB I have a couple of RW friends who only reaction is that they can now take their $$$$ and spend them overseas which really does not have much of an economic benefit to NZ as a whole. I suppose it might have an educational benefit of travel broadening the mind…..Balance of payments benefits?????

    • Enough is Enough 12.3
      3 February 2022 at 4:39 pm

      Hey I am with the government on this decsion. And I am certainly not from the right

  13. Descendant Of Smith 13
    3 February 2022 at 4:24 pm

    As someone with vulnerable family members this concerns me greatly. I go back to the point made previously that we evolved to adjust to the 1918 influenza – the influenza did not evolve to become more mild. Part of that evolution was lots of people dying and taking those genes out of the gene pool.

    I can find no expert that actually saying the vaccine itself is getting milder and would continue to evolve in such a way and in general the suggestion that viruses evolve like that has thoroughly been debunked. The evolution through genetic recombination is random – it is why one of my family members is highly vulnerable for instance – a non-inherited random genetic mutation. And they are not old at 32.

    "What makes Covid-19 in general appear less dangerous is the fact we now have a better understanding of how to care for seriously ill patients, coupled with effective antivirals and vaccines that are keeping a lot of people out of hospital and intensive care. "

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/24-01-2022/siouxsie-wiles-on-reducing-risk-with-omicron-in-the-community

    In December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 entered a human population that had no immunity to it. In December 2021, the Omicron variant is entering a human population that has a large amount of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. That immunity in and of itself will lessen the disease severity of the variant. But in people with limited or compromised immunity, such as the unvaccinated, the elderly or the immune compromised, SARS-CoV-2 may still be able to cause severe disease because they don’t have protection conferred by pre-existing immunity.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/opinion/covid-evolve-milder.html

    People who are vaccinated or recently infected will have milder symptoms if they experience a breakthrough infection or a reinfection, studies show.

    "This is not because the variant is less virulent, but because your immune system was primed from prior vaccination and infection," said Pekosz.

    Experts say omicron should not be taken lightly or thought of as a less lethal form of COVID. Even if less deadly, the omicron variant is also significantly more transmissible, leading to more deaths overall.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/debunking-idea-viruses-evolve-virulent/story?id=82052581

  14. tsmithfield 14
    3 February 2022 at 4:54 pm

    I read the article about virus evolution awhile ago as well.

    What I think the last article you link to overlooks is our capability, as intelligent entities, to control how viruses develop.

    For instance, if a mild version emerges, we can take a much looser approach towards it and allow it to spread.

    If mutation emerged that is as contagious as Omicron and as deadly as Ebola, we would probably all be walking around in biohazard suits and minimizing interpersonal contact. Hence that version would not tend not to spread as much.

    In that way, the combined effect of our own behaviour would control the development of viruses.

    I think we can already see this happening with Omicron. Since it is perceived as a more mild virus, people are more tolerant to live with it, hence it is likely to become endemic and spread.

  15. Adrian 15
    3 February 2022 at 6:00 pm

    We have done pretty much everything we could have done and are doing, 94% vaxxed as of today apparently, we are wearing masks in close areas, checking where we have been.
    It is “ only “ the flu, well a close cousin anyway which was the “ Spanish “ , American actually, only called Spanish because that’s where it’s existence was publicised out from under the Allies secrecy constraints, and that affected mostly those under 35 because it is presumed those over that had some residual immunity from the 1890s Russian “ cattle “ flu and however many before that. They are all corona viruses.

    Dont be afraid, we’ve done all we can. I live with a Covid trained nurse, I might not be in the trenches but the only way for me to completely avoid it is to live apart, but there are days when she is going to need a cuddle and a nice cup of tea, after 35 years I can’t say you are on your own, that’s selfish and she may well be needed by many others. I hope not by anyone on here.

  16. Robert Guyton 16
    3 February 2022 at 6:30 pm

    So, we're damning the torpedoes?

    • Poission 16.1
      3 February 2022 at 6:37 pm

      With a heavy swell the country turns into the wind with one frail timber shielding them from their doom (Aratus)

      • Dennis Frank 16.1.1
        3 February 2022 at 7:00 pm

        I own a small book by him – an English translation of Phenomena.

        About 276 BC Aratus was invited to the court of the Macedonian king Antigonus II Gonatas, whose victory over the Gauls in 277 Aratus set to verse. Here he wrote his most famous poem, Phenomena.

        He then spent some time at the court of Antiochus I Soter of Syria, but subsequently returned to Pella in Macedon, where he died sometime before 240/239. His chief pursuits were medicine (which is also said to have been his profession), grammar, and philosophy.

        The Phenomena appears to be based on two prose works—Phenomena and Enoptron (Ἔνοπτρον, "Mirror", presumably a descriptive image of the heavens)—by Eudoxus of Cnidus, written about a century earlier…The purpose of the Phenomena is to give an introduction to the constellations, with the rules for their risings and settings; and of the circles of the sphere… The immobility of the Earth, and the revolution of the sky about a fixed axis are maintained; the path of the Sun in the zodiac is described; but the planets are introduced merely as bodies having a motion of their own, without any attempt to define their periods; nor is anything said about the Moon's orbit. The opening of the poem asserts the dependence of all things upon Zeus.

        From the lack of precision in the descriptions, it would seem that Aratus was neither a mathematician nor observer or, at any rate, that in this work he did not aim at scientific accuracy. He not only represents the configurations of particular groups incorrectly, but describes some phenomena which are inconsistent with any one supposed latitude of the spectator, and others which could not coexist at any one epoch. These errors are partly to be attributed to Eudoxus himself, and partly to the way in which Aratus has used the materials supplied by him. Hipparchus (about a century later), who was a scientific astronomer and observer, has left a commentary upon the Phenomenas of Eudoxus and Aratus, accompanied by the discrepancies which he had noticed between his own observations and their descriptions.

        I include this to contrast the roles of poet & scientist in historical texts! Cosmology paints big pictures which represent the basis of the world-views of historical cultures, which we inherit. Happy to see this shifted to OM if the moderator feels I’m doing so inappropriately…

    • Dennis Frank 16.2
      3 February 2022 at 7:08 pm

      We're bidding the hermit kingdom adieu. The hermit king won't mind. I'd be surprised if he even notices. His retreat is well-hidden from both foreign invaders & local troublemakers.

      I suspect the govt has judged the overseas spread of omicron insufficiently serious to make fortress NZ worth maintaining. Pragmatic weighing of the cost/benefit ratio has produced their pragmatism.

      • Muttonbird 16.2.1
        3 February 2022 at 8:07 pm

        I suspect the govt has judged the overseas spread of omicron insufficiently serious to make fortress NZ worth maintaining.

        Confused emoticon. Hundreds of people are dying every week in Australia. 83 yesterday alone.

        How is this "insufficiently serious"?

        • Dennis Frank 16.2.1.1
          3 February 2022 at 8:16 pm

          I can't speak for them. I can only speculate. Deaths from infection would presumably have been estimated by experts, then weighed against the political cost of alienating voters. Rebels within seemed too great a problem.

          • Muttonbird 16.2.1.1.1
            3 February 2022 at 8:25 pm

            Ok. You are 'speculating' that the government is deliberately throwing, let's say 1000, vulnerable and elderly New Zealanders under the bus for political expediency?

            I arrived at 1000 people because I picked Australia's near end tally will be around 200 deaths/million. This applied to NZ's population equals 1100 deaths, 50 which have already happened.

            • Dennis Frank 16.2.1.1.1.1
              3 February 2022 at 8:44 pm

              Perhaps a journalist will ask Hipkins what their medical advice was. Then, when he avoids giving a straight answer, asks him how many deaths the experts predicted and who the experts giving those predictions are. Would he respond that he cannot disclose advice to caucus?

              • Muttonbird …
                3 February 2022 at 8:52 pm

                I'm certain the goal is to save all lives, that has clearly been the policy thus far and it has been remarkably successful.

                Still, New Zealand will eventually come back to the pack, as it were. Furthering the cycling analogy, the peloton of death will eventually catch up to this break-away of two years.

                But I think you are being deliberately cynical as to the motives of our government. We haven’t just decided to give up as you suggest. They are still not letting any tourists in without MIQ before October, for instance.

    • Muttonbird 16.3
      3 February 2022 at 7:24 pm

      You can safely bet Australian Kiwis flooding into the country from Feb 28 will not isolate properly, and by late March NZ will be in the grip of it. The team of 5 million is about to be royally screwed by expats.

      The worst is yet to come. 🙁

  17. Adrian 17
    3 February 2022 at 6:44 pm

    No, Robert, there are still torpedos in the world, but we do take reasonable precautions to avoid them but when do you get out of bed? The nurses and doctors put themselves in harms way, you can’t really say that they are “ damning the torpedos “. We cannnot be any more prepared, so let’s be a little more normal.

  18. Tony Veitch (not etc.) 18
    3 February 2022 at 8:24 pm

    It appears to me we've learned nothing from this pandemic. All I heard on TV1 news tonight was a sort of collective sigh of relief that we can, at last, get our lives back to normal. BAU.

    But BAU is in the process of killing all life (or at least most of it, including us) on this planet. We are well into the 6th mass extinction.

    Covid could/should have given us a short breathing space to reset our relationship with the environment – but no, young kiwis can now have their cherished OE back again. And Aussie tourists can fly in for a week or two in Queenstown!

    July's flood in Westport a '1 in 100 year' event – and 6 months later happening again!

    Will we never learn?

    • Rucklands 18.1
      3 February 2022 at 10:03 pm

      I'm with Tony.

      We will be letting it rip – shortly and hopefully sensibly – but mainly die to MSM and poll pressure. As usual.

      I am hopeful that these pressures are not taking into account the number of new voters that will be arriving at the next election (3 years more than last time) and thereafter. I am a boomer – and am totally embarrassed at what we have left behind:

      What do they have to look forward to:

      Ridiculous/overblown rents.

      Pretty much locked out of home ownership.

      And if you happen to be upwardly mobile – hamstrung by student loan debt.

      And even then if you are still optimistic the looming shadow of climate change which is not really being addressed – shouldn't you be concerned?

      In the face of that why is Labour aiming their re-election policies at what can only be described as upper middle NZ.

      Numerically what is not that should be more – if they wish to vote.

      And therein lies the problem.

      Who do you vote for:

      National = Tax cuts for the rich – small government a la neoliberalism.(They might care for you).

      Labour – not so much tax cuts for the rich but government a la neoliberalism.

      ACT – National on steroids – Gun Lobby.

      The Green Party should be the next choice but they have lost their way. How do you spell green?

      Where is the next electable party?

      C'mon youngsters – it's time to stand up for yourselves. This lot won't.

      Having said that I have only ever voted Labour but will not do so again.

      But couldn't vote NACT.

      • Shanreagh 18.1.1
        4 February 2022 at 10:27 am

        My hope was that we would not sink back into the torpor that is BAU.

        My hope was for hope of changes.

        Dirty tourism, dirty farming, export commodification ie catering to the lowest common denominator, is not the way forward……like an addict though they feed the short term need for feel good.

        I don't think I have felt this pessimistic or with the wind knocked out of my sails for the future since being in NZ while it was in the grip of neolib in 1ate 1980s/90s. I also felt it intensely when coming back to NZ in late 2005 after spending time in the UK. After time in London especially, during the bombings, where the sense of pulling together was sky high and coming back to NZ it seemed to be everyone for themselves.

        Long talk with partner whose last comment was the oft repeated, for him, 'ho hum' meaning 'resignation'.

        I have thought of something though, excuse the military reference Mc Flock, and that perhaps this is to outflank them so we can have 3 Waters through. But this is not realistic – the ones grabbing today will still be the ones knocking back 3 Waters tomorrow.

        PM has made a rare miscalculation for her by being so adamant that dates won't change. Now we have Luxon screeching about calling for her resignation if dates do need to change…….. for health's sake.

        Tony and Ruckland, I too was hoping for something to signal change was coming,

        Agree with this Tony

        “Covid could/should have given us a short breathing space to reset our relationship with the environment”

        and this Ruckland

        ‘And even then if you are still optimistic the looming shadow of climate change which is not really being addressed – shouldn’t you be concerned?’

  19. Shanreagh 19
    4 February 2022 at 11:13 am

    David Farrier had a guest columnist in Aug 2021 Josh Drummond writing on Climate Change

    https://www.webworm.co/p/climate

    At the very least I was expecting a link to housing, climate change and general wellbeing as part of the things to look forward to as part of meeting the urges from some to open up.

  20. Nic181 20
    7 February 2022 at 9:34 am

    While there are lists of internal flights of people who will need to isolate over a possible contact with Omicron, I won't even be visiting family the South Island. Let alone Australia or anywhere else. We are just seeing the start of this outbreak.

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