Israel is in Serious Trouble

Written By: - Date published: 8:36 am, August 7th, 2024 - 18 comments
Categories: International, israel - Tags:

Let’s lay out where Israel finds itself right now: in trouble.

Israel’s politics and military has been pulled into Gaza. There continues to be no plan to get the IDF out, no plan for Gaza to either be functionally governed or reconstructed should they get out, no apparent ability to fully defeat Hamas, and no apparent ability to stop what it’s doing.

Rather than destroying Hamas in its entirety, Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant has instead envisaged a path to victory that would see a demilitarization of the Gaza Strip and the removal of Hamas as the governing body in Gaza. Not even that more limited goal has worked out.

Israel is now in about the same place in Gaza as they were in 2003, before Prime Minister Sharon finally extricated the IDF out of there and fully disengaged by 2005. Sharon had a plan and improved the national position. 20 years later, rather than make progress Israel is in a much worse position. 

In the course of less than a year Israel has managed to alienate those who were neutral and  divide those who were their allies. There has never been a time since its formation when its international standing was as low as it is now.

Israel used to be able to count on the security provided by disproportionately large military responses to terrorist attacks. Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas now appear sufficiently cowed by disproportionality.

In a signal of how close to civil unrest Israel is, at the end of July Israeli right wing gangs stormed a military base in central Israel to protest the arrest of soldiers accused of gang-raping a Palestinian detainee at Sde Teiman Prison in the Negev desert.

But before we imagine an alternative, Israel is governed by a centre-right leader who, even if he were removed or put on trial somehow, would be replaced by someone from a far more militant Zionist elected faction. There is no functioning left wing of any note in its parliament.

It’s getting worse. The United States as of this week is now positioning military assets to respond to major attacks that it believes are imminent against its own forces and against Israel.

United States military aid to Israel exceeded US$3.8 billion in 2023. Israel is the leading global recipient of Title 22 U.S. security assistance under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program.  This has been formalized by a 10-year (2019-2028) Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), but there’s no formal defence treaty between them.

Since its inception, U.S. aid to Israel both military and economic has been essential to the viability and survival of Israel. It is by a long measure Israel’s most important donor. In return Israel is now a strong and independent state, with a robust economy, and maturing diplomatic positions within the eastern mediterranean. But Israel has otherwise provided scant return for such massive United States taxpayer funding and continues to fail to form solutions to its deep Palestinian problems despite heroic assistance from multiple entities but particularly the U.S. State Department.

Both Israel and the United States have faced a lot worse. Israel’s neighbours aren’t forming OPEC, or invading, and are either remaining neutral or actively providing strong diplomatic assistance.

But Israel’s failure to solve its own problems, its weakening democratic institutions, fraying civil patience, massive wastage of global patience and U.S. aid, and inability to plan for civic success following military conflict, point to a country in very serious trouble with no apparent way out.

18 comments on “Israel is in Serious Trouble ”

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  1. Bearded Git 1
    7 August 2024 at 9:14 am

    One wonders how "robust" the Israeli economy is after the events of the last 10 months.

    I wouldn't think that these events would put Israel at the top of the list for entrepreneurs wanting to set up a business.

  2. Psycho Milt 2
    7 August 2024 at 12:53 pm

    Since its inception, U.S. aid to Israel both military and economic has been essential to the viability and survival of Israel.

    Not so! US aid started after 1970. Israel fought the Palestinians in 1947 with locally procured or manufactured weapons and the Arab armies in 1948 with Czech weapons, in 1967 with French weapons and in 1973 with a mixture of French, British and US weapons. They've kicked their neighbours' arses multiple times without US assistance and could do so again if that became necessary.

    Over the last 8 months I've heard two Israeli commentators refer to "living on your sword," which was a new phrase to me but effectively means that if your neighbours are determined to kill you, unless you want to oblige them by dying you learn how to live your life well-armed and skilled with your weapons. That view will become more widespread, I think.

    • lprent 2.1
      7 August 2024 at 1:46 pm

      The last time Israel was seriously invaded by the military of another state was 1973. That was bloody 51 years ago. Yet fools like you seem to want to act as if that is a clear threat today. The last time that tanks and infantry looked even viable was in the 1980s

      Firing missiles in 1990 or even simply isn't a existential threat.

      What they have is an insurrection by local citizens in territories that they have unlawfully occupied since 1967, ie 55+ years ago. Or from refugees pushed by Israel into neighbouring states and segregated enclaves as far back as 1948.

      Israel is the only author of its current state, That is almost entirely due to their incredibly stupid political system that favours complete extreme racists and religious fanatics. They have compounded it it with cantonment policies designed to allow the state to seize private land in occupied territories to enable unlawful settlements.

      These foolish political stupidities have not allowed them to resolve any equitable solutions for the refugee Palestinians that Israel is directly or indirectly responsible for.

      The problem for Israel is that for them "living on your sword" seems to mean steadily trying to emulate the worst of the Nazi tactics that they were subject to in Germany in the 1930s and 1940s.

      At this point they are clearly on the path of unconstrained war against civilians similar to that waged in Spain in 1937, and the development of detention camps and jails as extra-legal ways to torture, rape, starve and kill people without anything more than a suspicion based on ethnicity.

      They are in effect acting as a major terrorist organisation in their actions against largely unarmed Palestinians. The support and donations to Israel from states, organisations and individuals are in effect supporting a terrorist state.

      Israel, supported by useful idiots like you and the US policies, are probably only a few years from tilting into full blown genocide.

      That will in turn mean that the state of Israel will have to die for crimes against humanity.

      PM – you really need to get off your lazy arse and read the material coming out of Israel. Start with the recent laws being passed in the Knesset in the last five years. Try a subscription to something like Haaretz to see what Israel looks like to a large segment of Israeli citizens.

      • srylands 2.1.1
        7 August 2024 at 4:38 pm

        "That is almost entirely due to their incredibly stupid political system that favours complete extreme racists and religious fanatics."

        Do you mean their "electoral system"? Sounds like New Zealand.

        Israel is not perfect but it is a beacon of democracy surrounded by despots. I have visited Israel and the West Bank. Tel Aviv is a great place for a vacation. There are not too many cities in the region that you can say that about m

        • Mike the Lefty 2.1.1.1
          7 August 2024 at 8:46 pm

          Visiting a place in your delusional dreams doesn't count, I'm afraid Mr Troll.

        • Jenny 2.1.1.2
          8 August 2024 at 8:56 am

          "Israel is not perfect but it is a beacon of democracy" srylands @2.1.1

          "a beacon of democracy"????

        • lprent 2.1.1.3
          8 August 2024 at 11:17 am

          Pity you didn't tour the whole area controlled by Israel. You can see whatever good you want if you cherry pick where you visit in any country.

          So you obviously did't travel to the West Bank unless you sent to an unlawful stolen cantonment. Family have been there, and it is a military prison with checkpoints and IDF reservists taking siestas at them. There is no democracy or rule of law at all in the areas controlled by the IDF there – unless you’re a Israeli citizens in one of the apartheid cantonments.

          It is straight military rule enforced by weapons, not only in the unlawful settlements, but across the whole of the West Bank.

          The same in Gaza, except there it is a IDF naval and land blockade with air attacks in what amounted to a concentration camp for Palestinians.

          But I guess that being a hypocrite is your thing, just like David Seymour and most Act party members. If you don’t look at something, then it clearly doesn’t exist for you….

          Idiot..

      • Psycho Milt 2.1.2
        7 August 2024 at 7:57 pm

        The belief that others would probably share one's views if only they were sufficiently educated is usually false. In this case, it's definitely false. The fact that Israel's had racist right-wing govts for a while now means nothing worse for Israel than racist, right-wing govts have meant for NZ, with the difference that last October's attack has driven Israelis even further right than the second intifada did, so things may get even worse yet. However, there's nothing wrong with Israelis that having less-insane neighbours wouldn't fix.

        • lprent 2.1.2.1
          8 August 2024 at 11:10 am

          Forget Palestinians. Just think about the effect of the Israeli govt and IDF actions on everyone else worldwide. Apart from the brain-dead readers of Israeli propaganda like you.

          However, there's nothing wrong with Israelis that having less-insane neighbours wouldn't fix.

          Damn it. You clearly have no idea of time. And you're a fucking lazy idiot who clearly cannot think.

          The last time these was a attempted or actual state invasion of Israel was 1973. That was 51 years ago. Don't you think that particular excuse is a little outdated.

          The action since then has mostly been an insurrection of the local Palestinian people in Gaza, Left Bank, and southern Lebanon against their occupiers and ethnic cleansers – ie Israel.

          The incursions into neighbouring states in the area since 1973, has been Israel invading Lebanon in the 1980s, and many attacks by Israel into Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran. There were some Scud missiles fired from Iraq in the first gulf war in 1990.

          Every military attack after the Gulf war has been from Palestinians against an occupying power – Israel, or more recently from insurrectionist groups like the Houti.

          Israel is the insane neighbour state.

          The Palestinians were promised a state in 1948 by the UN. Since Almost all of the action against Israel is by Palestinians fighting their occupying power

          Israel has now killed at least 40k people in Gaza. Probably closer to 100k people once they start digging up the rubble.

          The injured and maimed are well over 100k. That is about 10% of the population of Gaza – an area that Israel is legally in control of and responsible for the civilians of.

          The rabble that is the IDF have mostly killed were unarmed civilians. I think at present

          Sure the IDF may dispute those numbers. But the bloody handed IDF hasn't done anything to look at the actual casualty numbers. They consistently report estimates of casualty numbers . They have a simple response – we will look at it after the war (sotto voce, when everyone we think might be the 2.1 million Hamas possible supporters are dead or killed). They estimate about a tenth of the observed casualties.

          They also don't allow external independent observers to look at anything inside Gaza. This is not a disproportionate response. It is a deliberate state organised attempt at genocide. For instance it proportionality dwarfs the genocide in Bosnia in the 1990s, and did it in a tiny period of time.

          The IDF have started imprisoning people without charge or trial from the West Bank at about 10-20x the previous rate.

          Have the IDF units and settlers arbitrarily killing West Bank Palestinians at a rate that exceeds the IDF casualties in the active war zone of Gaza. Again they appear to be indiscriminate in their targeting. Most appear to have been people that got in the way between them and their largely unarmed targets. Many were just objecting to having land and possessions stolen or destroyed.

          Meanwhile the fuckwit war cabinet in Israel has been actively avoiding bringing the conflict to a close… for internal political reasons.

          My opinion is that the Israel has failed as a state, and is an active danger of triggering a wider war. The current state of Israel has failed and it needs to be shutdown.

          Israel arose out of a decision in 1948 to establish a separation of of two states in Palestine. That hasn't happened.

          It is time to revisit that. Having an ongoing and unstopped insurrection for 70 years is a pretty good indication that the decision hasn't worked. If the bloody US wasn't vetoing everything in the UN Security council, then that is where it should start.

          • Psycho Milt 2.1.2.1.1
            8 August 2024 at 12:41 pm

            The last time these was a attempted or actual state invasion of Israel was 1973. That was 51 years ago.

            Israel's insane neighbours include the terrorist orgs running the Palestinian territories and the Iranian proxy Hisb'allah that controls southern Lebanon, so the last invasion was 10 months ago and the resulting conflict is ongoing.

            In one sense, the neighbours aren't so much insane as just religious. Islam has been pretty consistent for over a millennium in its approach of "No self-determination by non-Muslims anywhere on land conquered for Islam, we will kill you," so their determination to destroy Israel makes sense if we ignore the fact that their religion is psychotic and the Israelis are not going to oblige them.

            Also insane is the fact that the above means we have the descendants of people displaced in a war in the 1940s claiming to be "refugees" living in "refugee camps" in their own country. Suppose Germany were maintaining "refugee camps" of millions of descendants of Germans displaced in 1945 from what's now Polish territory, requiring the UN fund these "camps" and telling Germans they have a sacred obligation to recapture the territories lost to Poland and kill or expel the Poles living there, or die as martyrs in the attempt. We'd look on the Germans as completely fucking nuts, which is why I think Israel needs less-insane neighbours.

            As long as Muslims think the war of 1948 isn't finished until Israel is destroyed, no settlement of the issue is possible and the rest of the world has to start treating them as insane until they stop acting like they're insane.

  3. SPC 3
    7 August 2024 at 4:19 pm

    Sure Sharon's disengagement was a back-up to the peace process outcome hoped for (Oslo Accords 1993 – failure at Camp David 2000).

    Unfortunately Hamas winning PA elections and the resulting civil war in which governance of WB and Gaza became divided (President gun in West Bank and Hamas gun in Gaza) enabled the return of the destroyer (the man who opposed the Oslo Accords and avowed opponent of any Palestinian state – thus the enemy of the world community and its UN).

    Like any would be destroyer, he is a magnet for fascists – who love the Götterdämmerung of lost causes, glory or death.

    Which is why he is the beloved Jew of end time religion Christian dominonionism right (Project 2025 one variant).