The major parties poll high between elections. As the election approaches, and minor parties get publicity, the major parties tend to fall and the minors rise. This election is following the same pattern, with both National and Labour down in the two TV polls (though slightly up in The Herald poll, so mixed messages as usual).
The 3 News Reid Reseach poll has National down to its lowest level since it won the 2008 election.
The ONE News Colmar Brunton has Labour down to a ten year low.
The Herald DigiPoll has both main parties up a bit, and NZF on (headline shocker!) 4.9%.
The good news for the Left is that The Herald has National under 50% and both TV polls have them heading down there, and all polls have the Greens steady near or rising fast to 13%. Here are the figures (some taken from here):
One News/Colmar Brunton
National 53% (down 1)
Labour 26% (down 2)
Greens 13% (up 4)
NZ First 2.2% (down 0.7)
Maori 1.6% (down 0.5)
Act 1.6% (up 0.1)
Conservative 1.4% (up 0.9)
Mana 1.3% (up 1.1)
United 0.8% (up 0.5)
Preferred PM: Key 53, Goff 13
3 News/Reid Research
National 50.2% (down 3.1)
Labour 27.4% (down 2.5)
Greens 13% (up 2.8)
NZ First 3.5% (up 1.1)
Act 1.8% (up 1.1)
Maori 1.3% (down 0.1)
Conservative 1.1% (no change)
Mana 1.0% (nc)
United –
Preferred PM: Key 49, Goff 10
Herald DigiPoll
National on 49.89 per cent (up 0.4),
Labour 29.1 (up 0.4),
Greens 12.6 (no change),
NZ First 4.9 (up 1.2),
Act 1.7 (up 0.2),
Maori Party 0.7 (up 0.2),
Conservatives 0.6 (down 0.4),
Mana Party 0.4 (down 0.4),
United Future 0.1 (down 0.6)
I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls. It’s going to be an interesting week.
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