National plan for 2000 extra Kiwis in prison per year

Written By: - Date published: 9:01 am, September 17th, 2024 - 20 comments
Categories: chris bishop, Christopher Luxon, crime, law and "order", paul goldsmith, same old national - Tags: ,

This is a repost from the Mountain Tui substack.

Yesterday, Luxon congratulated his government on a job well done with emergency housing numbers, but advocates have been saying it‘s likely many are on the streets and sleeping in cars.

Q&A featured some of the folks this weekend – homeless and in cars.

Yes.

The government’s also confirmed they stopped funding social service providers who were helping emergency housing tenants. It feels like – anything to make it uncomfortable for these people.

Back in April, when Luxon first announced 9 “highly ambitious” public service KPIs, it seemed obvious how easy the emergency housing target was – in particular.

800 less households in emergency housing?

People with predictable advocates, zero lobbying groups, and who are seen by many in society as expendable and are effectively voiceless?

Find me a bully and I’ll get you a successful KPI on that one.

Promise.

Well yesterday Luxon made it clear that his 9 KPIs were all in progress – but one in particular had made “particularly good progress,” he noted.

You guessed it: emergency housing. [Surprise!]

Here’s how Louise Upton described the eligibility changes in March:

“MSD staff [will] assess anyone applying for emergency housing [and] increase their scrutiny of whether they have unreasonably contributed to their immediate emergency housing need, whether they have taken reasonable efforts to access other housing options [e.g. private rentals/hostels] and whether they have previously paid their emergency housing contribution.

“This will include escalating for further consideration .. and making a grant for one to four days – as opposed to the current options of seven to 21 days – to enable further scrutiny.”

The pressure for applicants, I imagine, would be immense, and the first critiera – “whether applicants have unreasonably contributed to their immediate emergency housing need” feels like it wouldn’t involve much compassion or dignity.

For anyone with anxiety or who finds that level of external scrutiny stressful, I’m guessing many will avoid the process altogether.

National aren’t without other smarts too.

In March, Housing Minister Chris Bishop said that families with children would be prioritised for support.

After all, who needs photos of children living in cars or on streets on the 6 o’clock news?

Progress ensues.

Last month, nearly all government Ministers posted their ‘achievement’ of 1000 less children in emergency housing on their Facebook pages –

Unfortunately though, the Government doesn’t know where 20% of the children went to, and holds little visibility on those that went private (about 30%).

Community providers and charities have warned that a “tsunami of homelessness” is likely despite the short term ‘success’ of the numbers because of reduced staffing and halts to social housing under National.

And Labour’s McAnulty:

“They’re not letting people in…”

“Make it harder for people to get into emergency housing – where are they going to go?”

“They’re certainly not going to the houses that the government is building, because the government put a stop to it.”

Singles or families without children are rendered homeless and off to a life of desperation, mental illness and/or crime many will go.

Talking about crime – Paul Goldsmith and Luxon spent time in the press conference responding to questions about their tougher sentencing and criminal justice regime.

The Press Conference

To the content –

  • Yes, they expected more people in prison as a result of their reforms.

How many?

  • Goldsmith: 1400 – 1700 / year. Luxon later upped that to up to “2000 extra prisoners” a year by 2034

Cost?

  • Goldsmith: $160 – $190 million. But we already know each prisoner costs ~$200,000 per person (Ministry of Justice).
  • That would mean up to $400,000,000 more per year – not adjusted for inflation. i.e. $400mn per year and $1.2 billion over a budget period at max modelling

Luxon intimates money is no object when it comes to incarceration.

Seriously.

In an earlier column, I noted how NZ now has comparable incarceration rates globally – about 173 per 100,000 (Australia 157, and the UK, 145).

And under the last National governments, they acknowledged high incarceration levels were a “moral and fiscal failure.”

i.e. They were not only extremely expensive – but they didn’t stop crime, and only hardened the causes.

I won’t lament the point but observe how the Luxon led right wing government seems to be cherry picking the worst of failed models for NZ (trickle down economics, corporations over people, climate change protection elimination and now mega prisons and higher incarceration)

Achieving a KPI is easy – ask anyone who has worked with data what manipulation means and I think you will see them nod.

But genuinely helping a nation to improve is something altogether.

National is playing funny buggers with the crime numbers and statistics

The video (3:25) also shows that National are fudging their crime numbers sheen.

  1. They used police data in opposition e.g. to claim ram raids increased by 80% during Labour’s term, but now in government they are using the “victimisation survey” instead. This is obviously a marketing trick and Luxon looks down before coming back up to talk a lot about nothing. And this is how RNZ summarised it “There are some questions about the discrepancy on data.”
    • Yet, unfortunately it’s not that simple. They are comparing apples while in opposition with bananas in government. Author update: I see The Standard is already on it too!
  2. Luxon announced crime was coming down in Auckland but ignored the fact that crime – including violent crime – is going up across the entire country. This is how NZME covered it.

And yes – most people just remember the first headlines.

A Scourge, says Goldsmith

Finally, Goldsmith and Luxon were challenged on why they made a change to allow police to enter private homes to search for gang insignia, after the Select Committee closed.

Paul Goldsmith labels gangs a “scourge on society.”

And the PM’s defiant answer – “we back police”.

Yes, except when it’s the police versus an ACT gun lobbyist & Associate Justice Minister, who still meets with gun and firearms groups every single month.

Then he will ignore the 98% of all sworn police who were pleading for a chance to have input on gun laws. In that case, last month, Luxon told them squarely and publicly to get in line.

Flexible principles, flexible Luxon.

Not one extra dollar available for our health system, he said, but he will find whatever money he needs to to put more Kiwis behind bars, while simultaneously pushing more people onto our streets.

Welcome to the new Aotearoa New Zealand.

Related reading:

Paul Goldsmith – The Man Who Wanted Te Reo Maori Gone

Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unexpected consequences for all of us

20 comments on “National plan for 2000 extra Kiwis in prison per year ”

  1. Ngungukai 1

    Great, really progressive policy, by Baldrick, Merkat Seymore and Winston Muldoon.

  2. Incognito 2

    There’s no reasoning nor room for context & nuance for dogmatic ideologues who capture their flock of faithfuls through re-writing scripts & narratives.

    https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/09/10/govt-resolute-in-allowing-10yos-to-be-treated-as-criminals/

  3. Rodel 3

    Prison life is pointless and expensive. Rehabilitation is a joke. I don't know what the answer is, but the current situation makes people worse. I heard that Finland has better answers.

    • At the "Abuse in Care" press conference, media asked Luxon if his views of gangs had changed and his thoughts on rehabilitation.

      The Inquiry found at least 1 in 3 of all in state & faith based care were abused – often violently and/or sexually.

      Many of those victims went on to form and/or join gangs.

      – Did that affect his view of gangs?

      – What were Luxon's thoughts on rehabilitation? The media asked.

      Luxon immediately spoke about how much his government put into prison beds and officers. He then said he acknowledged gangs had "dysfunctional upbringings" but still, prison would teach what they needed to change.

      i.e. He has no clue what rehabilitation is nor does he have an ounce of empathy in any of his bones by the looks of it.

      Terribly bad choice of government, NZ. And shame on us.

      • dv 3.1.1

        The other thing is that sentences are supposed to have a deterent factor.

        That implies they can think and make appropriate judgments.

        • Mountain Tui 3.1.1.1

          Good point and reminds me of how they want to imprison more youths.

          • Incognito 3.1.1.1.1

            Luxon’s incongruence is grating. On the one hand, 78% of Yr-8 students fail the ‘expected’ (new and not-yet-taught) math standards, but on the other hand they can be treated as criminals.

            • Mountain Tui 3.1.1.1.1.1

              Zero consistency in any of their policies or statements. All about ideologies, donor interests and controlling the narrative.

              A thoroughly shallow, un-serious, and dangerous minded government.

    • Ngungukai 3.2

      We seem to be going around and around in circles on this issue and not solving the problems ???

  4. Mike the Lefty 4

    A simple question:

    If you cracking down on crime then why do you need more prisons?

    If its working so well then logically you would need less prisons right?

    No, not with National, because National's strategy is not to prevent crime but to punish more harshly when crimes are committed. It is designed to bring smiles to the ZB Newstalk ranters.

    Harsh punishment does not itself prevent crime. The most effective means of preventing crime is a numerous, well-resourced, well-deployed police force, as we have seen in Central Auckland – it does work.

    Now we should expect the rest of NZ to get similar policing resources now that we have seen the good results, right?

    • I noticed today Ryan Bridges and Newstalk are praising Luxon for his improved poll numbers and economic results.

      Anything to take off from the disastrous crime numbers.

      NZME doesn't genuinely care about crime – they just need to stir up enough anger to win votes for their corporate politicians.

      • tc 4.1.1

        NZME don't care about Health either as the manufactured crises rolls on across multiple fronts from broken election promises in Primary healthcare to Cancer Drug shuffles.

        Just a few days back Tawdrey was banging on about how Seymour hogs the headlines…..by giving him another.

        They wonder why the media has no credibility, as they proprogate the disinformation by letting the likes of Jones, Brown, Bishop, Reti etc get the talking points across unchallenged.

  5. tc 5

    "Achieving a KPI is easy – " even easier when you can simply not caputre or report unfavourable facts that counter your narratives.

    Add dirty politics and a compliant media, stir in the culture wars and it sure is some brewing they've got going here.

    • The media is very disappointing – and I have argued for a while that if they cared, they would need to update their operating mode given how much direct disinformation/misinformation this government deals in.

      It's actually essential for good governance as well as preventing the ongoing splintering of society.

      Yesterday, in response to Luxon and Goldsmith being found out effectively fudging crime numbers, this was RNZ's summary

      "There are some questions about the discrepancy on data regarding crime and delivering on the targets.

      Luxon says they look at a range of indicators"

      Without watching the press conference, or finding alternate reporting e.g. Micky Savage's article this morning – who would understand that?

      Jo Moir was on duty at the press conference.

      • tc 5.1.1

        The publicly owned media don't fulfill their purpose i.e. to hold power to account. TVNZ and RNZ are pathetic, soapboxes rather than some rigorous Q&A.

        The facade's paper thin from the coalition but it's enough in the absence of a coherent insistent line of questioning on any topic.

        Private media reflects the owners agenda and has advertisers to keep happy so you get as expected from ZB etc, outrage sells.

        We live in different times now as not so long ago the media would be all over the sloppiness in being dodgy from this 3 ring circus of a coalition.

        • Mountain Tui 5.1.1.1

          I find the RNZ is a mixed bag but overall better than most. For example, they covered and exposed Casey Costello's likely corruption. NZME took it off a findable page.

  6. Ngungukai 6

    2,000 x $200,000 = $400 Million by my calculations ???

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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: National wants to cheat on Paris

    In 2016, the then-National government signed the Paris Agreement, committing Aotearoa to a 30 (later 50) percent reduction in emissions by 2030. When questioned about how they intended to meet that target with their complete absence of effective climate policy, they made a lot of noise about how it was ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Treasury warned Govt lower debt limits meant less ‘productivity-enhancing investment’

    Treasury’s advice to Cabinet was that the new Government could actually prudently carry net core Crown debt of up to 50% of GDP. But Luxon and Willis instead chose to portray the Government’s finances as in such a mess they had no choice but to carve 6.5% to 7.5% off ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Is the Media Complicit?

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    6 days ago
  • Black Friday

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  • Weekly Roundup 13-September-2024

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    6 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #37 2024

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    7 days ago
  • What it is

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    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
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  • A government-funded hate campaign

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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • How Substack works to take (some) craziness out of America’s elections

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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Kamala Harris Did Something Unthinkable

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  • Kamala Harris Did Something Unthinkable

    Hi,Yesterday me and a bunch of friends gathered in front of the TV, ate tortillas, drank wine, and watched the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.Some of you may have joined in on the live Webworm chat where we shared thoughts, jokes and memes — and a basic glee ...
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    1 week ago
  • Kamala Harris Did Something Unthinkable

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  • David Seymour is such a loser

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  • Cross-party consensus: there’s no pipeline without good faith

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  • Voters love this climate policy they’ve never heard of

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    1 week ago
  • ACC wants to administer inflation at more than double the RBNZ’s target rate

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  • Harris vs Trump

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  • Treaty Bill “a political stunt”

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  • An average 219 NZers migrated each day in July

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  • What you’re wanting to win more than anything is The Narrative

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  • National’s automated lie machine

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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Christopher Luxon: A Man of “Faith” and “Compassion” Speaks on the Treaty Pr...

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  • Member’s Day

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  • Northern Expressway Boondoggle

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  • Wānaka community to benefit from new overnight health service

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  • Preventing potholes with data-driven technology

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  • GDP data shows effect of high interest rates

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  • NZ to host first Fiji, Australia trilateral trade Ministers’ meeting in Rotorua

    Trade Minister Todd McClay will host Fijian Deputy Prime Minister Manoa Kamikamica and Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell for trilateral trade talks in Rotorua this weekend. “Fiji is one of the largest economies in the Pacific and is a respected partner for Australia and New Zealand,” Mr McClay says. Australia and New Zealand ...
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  • NZ hosts Annual CER Trade Ministers’ meeting in Rotorua

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  • Government proposing changes to jury trials

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  • Business key to regional economic dialogue

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    4 hours ago
  • More funding for Growing Up in New Zealand study

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  • Tough targets for charter schools will raise achievement

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  • NZ votes for Middle East resolution at UN

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  • Honouring the legacy of New Zealand’s suffragists

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  • Foreign Minister to travel to New York, French Polynesia

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    22 hours ago
  • Thanking social workers on their national day

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  • Minister of State for Trade heads to Laos for ASEAN meetings

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  • Members appointed to retail crime MAG

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  • Speech to the New Zealand Nurses Organisation AGM and Conference 2024

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  • Improvements for New Zealand authors

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  • Minister commends Police for gang operation

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  • FamilyBoost childcare payment registrations open

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  • Prioritising victims with tougher sentences

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  • Targets data confirms rise in violent crime

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  • Asia Foundation Board appointments announced

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    3 days ago
  • Endeavour Fund projects for economic growth

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  • Social Services Providers Whakamanawa National Conference 16 September 2024

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  • Parihaka infrastructure upgrades funded

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  • Serious assaults down 22% in Auckland CBD

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    4 days ago
  • Increased certainty for contractors coming

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says upcoming changes to the Employment Relations Act will provide greater certainty for contractors and businesses. “These changes to legislation are necessary to ensure businesses and workers have more clarity from the start of their contracting arrangement. It is an ACT-National coalition ...
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  • Draft critical minerals list released for consultation

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  • Government eliminates $190 million in trade barriers to boost the economy

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  • Reo Māori the ‘beating heart’ of Aotearoa New Zealand

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  • Need and value at forefront of public service delivery

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  • Minister to attend Police Ministers Council Meeting

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  • New Bill to crack down on youth vaping

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  • Interest in agricultural and horticultural products regulatory review welcomed

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  • Bill to allow online charity lotteries passes first reading

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  • Tax exempt threshold changes to benefit startups

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  • Targeted supports to accelerate reading

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    1 week ago

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