Open mike 04/02/2020

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, February 4th, 2020 - 86 comments
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86 comments on “Open mike 04/02/2020 ”

  1. Ad 1

    If this virus does take China down economically for a year or more, it gets New Zealand both directly through tourism, students, and commodity exports, and indirectly pulling down other markets critical to us such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Sungapore.

    Its time our Finance Minister addressed us on the forecast economic impact here.

    • Sabine 1.1

      it is already getting us through tourism.

      here in middle nuzilind where people make money milking cows or tourists the first lay offs have already happened. The hotels are posting vacancy and the eateries are contemplating cutting hours fro staff.

      And its not even been two month.

    • Cinny 1.2

      The Listening Post covered the Corona virus in the weekend. The initial burying of the virus's seriousness by the Chinese govt and their state run media, helped in part to facilitate the spread of misleading information via social media. Sadly the silence from Beijing also led to a lack of public awareness about the virus, thereby encouraging it's spread.



      It's the first story up, the other stories that follow are also well worth watching. Good episode.

      I do hope the NZ government is communicating with our exporters and coming up with a plan to avoid false rumours and worry.

      Meanwhile in China there was a truly bizarre effort to soothe the population, the Shanghai Media Group and it's tv stars decided to create and air a music video as a response to the virus. It's weird. You can watch it at the end of the link above.

  2. Rapunzel 2

    Does anyone know why the returns for candidate donations in previous years that were released to the public are no longer on the original Electoral Commission page they were or where to find them?

    https://thestandard.org.nz/the-2017-general-election-electorate-expense-returns/

    I know I've seen them before around the time this story was in The Standard
    https://vote.nz/events/2017-general-election/2017-parties-candidates-and-third-parties/third-party-returns-2017

  3. Ad 3

    Can I just give a big shoutout to the Milford Road Alliance team. Such beauty in that forested valley, such torrential rage.

    You've got a mighty load of road building ahead, crack into it.

    • bwaghorn 3.1

      I predict that in ten years the westcoast will be largely abandoned, this is the 3rd significant road wreacking storm in the last year or so . It will become to expensive to keep open.

      • Ad 3.1.1

        I predict the opposite.

        They may be shrinking but they're the toughest NZer around.

        Continuing huge tourist booms as we get relatively safer with each passing year.

      • Adrian 3.1.2

        They have been saying that for150 years.

  4. Sanctuary 4

    Oh God, Guyon is going on about NZ First again.

    Look Guyon, we all know you got given a spreadsheet by a disgruntled ex-NZ First employee and it gave you a hard-on, but you’ve yet to come up with anything other than breathless “revelations” that amount to not much really.

    Why don’t you do an in depth look at the systemic issue of party funding in NZ, instead of sensationalist bullshit bully pulpit blathering because since you’ve become woke and learnt a bit of Te Reo you are personally affronted at NZ First’s view of how Maori should think?

  5. Sanctuary 5

    Question – has the Standard ever considered going onto Youtube, similar to how Novara Media work?

    You know, start to create an alternative left wing media eco system to the boring crapfest the Morning report has become and the dollar store version of the Daily Mail the NZ Herald is these days?

    Imagine – Advantage talks to Andrew Geddis and Paul Buchanan about party funding for 90 minutes… Or Mickey Savage talks to the editor of Crickey.com.au and Paul Fitzsimmons about Australian politics…

    A little studio is cheap as chips to set up these days!

    • Ad 5.1

      For me that's not until I semiretired to Wanaka.

      Otherwise have a chat with Mickey or Lyn.

    • mauī 5.2

      Here I was thinking you were left? Very tame…

      You need Ed interviewing Rachel Stewart and Craig Murray for starters.

      Then an Ed monologue on how everything can be nationalized.

    • gsays 5.3

      The Sunday gardening, soil/community/resilience building slot would be appointment viewing.

  6. pat 6

    "But did it work?

    The focus on low taxes, skimpy investment in infrastructure, user-pays thinking and the primacy of the individual and the short term over the interests of the state and the long term has left us with hundreds of thousands of kids in poverty, a housing shortage estimated at up to 200,000 homes, an infrastructure deficit estimated at up to $300b and a climate emissions reduction task that is impossible with the current settings."

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/02/04/1016821/what-another-1989-style-transformation-would-look-like

    Not a bad summation by Bernard Hickey (with a link to Mike Moore's passing) and some practical pathways offered

    • Ad 6.1

      For an MMP government who made generational moves you need only look to the Clark-Cullen administration. Check your Kiwisaver if you're unsure.

      Neither Ardern nor Bridges have a bold bone in their body.

      • Nic the NZer 6.1.1

        Really, Kiwisaver? You have been sold a right crock if you think that is a transformational policy.

        • bwaghorn 6.1.1.1

          Its bloody brilliant is kiwi saver.

          Between a rocky start to life a divorce and being a bit crap with money kiwisaver is my only hope of a decent old age ,unless I hit a lotto win.

          • Nic the NZer 6.1.1.1.1

            Hey, good for you. But that doesn't make it good for everybody. As Pat highlights its probably driving the housing market to some extent.

            • bwaghorn 6.1.1.1.1.1

              Na the biggest drivers of the housing problem are immigration and rental subsidies.

      • pat 6.1.2

        Kiwisaver was not however systemic and it can be argued has assisted house inflation.

        Clark/Cullen were in fact an excellent example of the incremental policy Hickey describes

        • Nic the NZer 6.1.2.1

          That's a very astute observation Pat.

        • Ad 6.1.2.2

          Oh what crap.

          Most of the population are in Kiwisaver.

          I dont have to defend each policy, but the scope of many of them has been massive.

          • Nic the NZer 6.1.2.2.1

            As should be obvious, the underlying idea of Kiwisaver is to shift the burden to saving for retirement off the govt towards user pays.

            Then there are the macro-economic implications which mandate that the housing debt is rising to fill in for that saving. If you don't understand that link you don't understand what Dr Cullen has suggested about Kiwisaver rates being available as an economic policy lever.

  7. Dennis Frank 7

    Democracy in the USA has evolved to the point where only geriatrics are suitable for the top job, according to the system: Trump (73), Biden (77), Sanders (78), Warren (70), Bloomberg (77). Only spring chicken Elizabeth Warren, and Trump, are young enough to be boomers.

    We beat them by a generation – it's now thirty years since a boomer cohort restructured governance in Aotearoa. Time for phase two:

    "So what should Gen X/Y/Zers do if they win power in the next decade? Bernard Hickey argues they should give the Infrastructure and Climate Change Commissions Reserve Bank-like independence and tools to target housing affordability and carbon zero by 2050." https://www.newsroom.co.nz/@politics/2020/02/04/1016821/what-another-1989-style-transformation-would-look-like

    "1989 was year zero in many ways for modern New Zealand. It was also the year tax laws were changed to (accidentally) discourage long term pension investment in businesses and encourage housing investment. It was a cross-party effort". Neoliberalism.

    "A quick look at the demographics of the voting age population shows Generations X,Y and Z will overwhelm the baby boomers in the decade from 2023 to 2033". "So what would alt-control-delete look like? The leaders of the current Labour-led coalition supported by The Greens would say they are doing that 'rewrite' now with the creation of the Zero Carbon Act and proposed amendments to the Reserve Bank Act, the State Sector Act, the Public Finance Act and the Resource Management Act."

    "But the political mathematics of MMP and the legacy of the boomer politicians still in charge of many of the instruments of power and the balance of power means the reforms are incremental at best." Yes, this is a transitional phase. Transformation of the system will be deferred until the demographic shift kicks in.

    "The primacy of this median-voter-driven politics and a 'no surprises' culture that drives a risk-averse approach to ministerial advice and the operation of ministries is rock solid, on both sides of politics."

    Democracy rules, to ensure that our 19th century economic system will keep lurching on into the future like a dysfunctional robot. Muddle through the middle as usual.

    • pat 7.1

      a quick look at the demographics show that the pre boomers could out-vote the boomers-plus now (and have been able to for the last couple of elections) IF they bothered to turn up…implying the change cannot occur until 2023-2033 highlights the fact that there are some pretty simplistic assumptions at play when considering both demographics and voting patterns.

    • Wayne 7.2

      The age range of senior politicos is a curious feature at the moment. Pelosi is also 79.

      Is it just coincidence, after all the US has had plenty of much younger Presidents over the last 60 years. Maybe it is the last gasp of the boomers (or those a bit above) at the top jobs. Just like Dole was the last “greatest generation” candidate. Surely in 2024 we will see a whole swath of younger candidates, probably including some of those who dropped out early in the current race. For instance if Biden or Sanders became President, would they do 2 terms?

      Much of Europe and of course NZ have top leaders in their 30’s or early 40’s. Though does that actually mean better government. One thing that is evident however, is that climate changes policies matter a lot more with younger politicians.

      • Sanctuary 7.2.1

        Systems in decline tend to exhibit the same outward signs of morbidity, including a shuffling gerontocracy. The current US senior leadership looks like the Soviet Politburo at the end of the USSR, glossy animated cadavers shuffling and wheezing and shaking their frail, rheumy fists at each other.

    • Adrian Thornton 7.3

      What the hell does age matter?

      Policies and ideology are all that matter.

      John Key was young….but then again plenty of liberals have exposed themselves lately as being more closely aligned with the ideology of someone like Key than to any actual possible progressive left wing leader that could potentially pop up in NZ….( I wish).

      Bernie 2020! Turn Labour Left!

      • Sanctuary 7.3.1

        Age matters beyond a certain point. Some people can retain a youthful vitality and good mental acuity into their early 70s, but the reality is by the time you get past 75 your best days are well behind you, no matter how age defying you are. Mental flexibility, decision making skills and ability to handle the pressure and the workload all drop off after your mid to late fifties, which is why people still want to retire at 65. We may be living longer, but all that extra life occurs at the wrong end.

        Besides, we are not dealing with a bunch of hyper-fit and agile 60 somethings in the USA, or even sharp and sprightly early 70-year-olds. We are talking a 78 year old Bernie Sanders, a 76 year old Joe Biden, a visibly aging and mentally deteriorating 73 year old Trump, Nancy Pelosi is pushing 80, Mitch McConnell I think is 78. It goes on and on, especially in the senate.

        You'll never convince me a but of neo-octagenarians have mental and workload capacity to run the USA better than politicians 20 years younger.

        • Sacha 7.3.1.1

          Looking at the huge visible toll that particular job takes on younger people, why anyone old would want to hold it is beyond me.

      • AB 7.3.2

        Age is just another ligature point for the choke-hold of identity.

      • Andre 7.3.3

        What Sanc said.

        Also, when it comes to the likes of Corbyn and Sanders proudly proclaiming their socialist cred, there's an ideology problem that the likes of AOC don't have.

        Old geezers have had their views of socialism formed in the 60s and 70s and 80s, and most of what called itself socialism then was intensely disliked by most of those that lived through it. The downsides of that flavour of socialism flung the door wide open to the excesses of the neo-liberalism that came after. So when Corbyn and Sanders proudly flaunt socialist cred, it gives the idea that they want to take us back to the worst of the 70s. Which falls firmly into the basket of "not fkn wanted" for large sectors of the population, including the demographics with the highest voting turnout.

        Whereas when someone much younger such as AOC starts saying "socialist" and talking about what they want, it seems much more likely they are talking about something like the scandinavian social democracies. That's a much more attractive and less threatening prospect.

        • RedLogix 7.3.3.1

          it seems much more likely they are talking about something like the scandinavian social democracies. That's a much more attractive and less threatening prospect.

          Exactly. Keep in mind the USA did all the heavy lifting in the Cold War, and they have long memories of this. The word socialism has a different and much darker connotation to them than it does to us.

          But if we want to sell a modern, social democratic ideal, we have to be clear on where the boundaries are. Because any hint of marxism in the mix will ensure a bad reaction.

        • Sanctuary 7.3.3.2

          I agree about the baggage, smearing Sanders and Corbyn is a piece of cake given their long history.

          Win or lose, this run by Sanders is really all about setting up AOC in 2024. AOC has no baggage. If Sanders wins, even in the USA his age in 2024 (82 to 86 for a second term – with AOC as his VP?) will be a problem. Lose and AOC becomes the shining hope of re-winning the White House, especially when Trump will be a fully deranged 77 year old and in a country where whites are a rapidly declining voter group.

          Whatever happens, I predict AOC will be president of the United States no later than 2028 – and her victory will push the United States into it’s greatest crisis since Lincoln won in 1860.

          • Wayne 7.3.3.2.1

            AOC can’t run till 2028 because of the age restriction of the Constitution. Presidents have to be 36 years old. Buttigieg just scapes in. Kennedy is the youngest President, I think aged 42 when elected.

            • Wayne 7.3.3.2.1.1

              I also think AOC will never be President, unless she moderates her views. The US basically is not a socialist nation. Her views are to the left of Sanders.

              However I also have no doubt she will moderate them enough to become broadly acceptable. I am pretty sure she is no Corbyn and is much more flexible than he ever was.

  8. mac1 8

    Wayne, I've often wondered that. Several factors come to mind. The steps to promotion are controlled by older people? The electorate trusts more the wisdom of age than the energy of the young? The vision of the young is different and challenging? The focus of the young is upon other things? The huge non-vote in the US shows a similar sized disconnect with politics? Politics in the US demands access to large cash resources and is a privilege of the wealthy? Politicians are not hugely respected? Being involved in politics bears a personal cost in terms of employment, social standing, personal safety?

    All of these factors, framed as questions for I am not sure of their actual strong validity, I am sure apply in some way.

    I came into politics as a candidate at age fifty. Before that, I was deeply involved but had job and family commitments. It was first suggested to me at age nearly forty. How long does it take to get into the top of national politics within a party if forty or fifty is the starting age for first engagement?

  9. arkie 9

    So it's official, National plan to follow the example of the Australian Liberal Party in their bid to win an 'unwinnable election'

    National MPs have been schooling up on the campaign tricks that helped Australia Prime Minister Scott Morrison to victory in last year's "unwinnable" election.

    The Liberals drove a brutal campaign that zeroed in on the economy, repeatedly warning that Labor's big policy proposals posed a massive risk to people's wallets.

    "[National] has got a great record from the previous government," Westenberg said. "They've demonstrated that they can deliver, because they did last time."

    Bridges has already signalled an intent to use that line of attack, later telling reporters: "This is a government that doesn't deliver. National will get things done."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/408782/nats-take-election-campaign-tips-from-scott-morrison-s-liberals-in-australia

    It's important to remember the Liberals won in part due to numerous untrue claims in advertising. We should be prepared to effectively counter Nationals attempts to repeat this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/02/lies-damn-lies-and-campaign-material-the-biggest-fibs-of-the-election-so-far

  10. Sanctuary 10

    I see Chloe Swarbrick is the Green candidate for Auckland Central. For the love of God, Labour please don't run a candidate against her because

    a) she is a really good politician and b) she would probably win if you gave her a clear run, meaning the Greens get an insurance policy that would upset Soimon from Accounts no end.

    • mac1 10.1

      A good ploy. All the likely NZF social conservatives and anti-Greens will flock to vote NZF. They will hope that NZF goes with National (against the pronouncements and the odds) or that NZF gets enough votes to govern with Labour alone, thus leaving the Greens entirely out of it.

  11. Adrian Thornton 11

    Pork Plant Workers Turn Out for Sanders in First Caucus in Iowa

    Bernie 14 Warren 1

    https://theintercept.com/2020/02/03/iowa-first-caucus-satellite-pork-plant-workers/

    Bernie 2020! Turn Labour Left!

  12. Adrian Thornton 12

    Music world pays tribute to Gang Of Four guitarist Andy Gill

  13. mosa 13

    This timely post by Christine Rose.

    Some animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others.
    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/02/03/what-if-you-were-a-pig/

    • Dennis Frank 13.1

      Piggy Muldoon was the most equal of them all. Deemed socialist (eventually) by all those straight young guys who voted him into power in '75. Strangely, they never seemed to point out that he was National socialist – perhaps because folks would match that with national socialist. Come '84 nobody was thinking straight…

  14. Quinnjin 14

    Thank you for telling it how it is.
    There seem to be quite a few in this thread in a dispicable denial.
    There can be no soft selling the betrayal that this man and his colleagues committed in this country.
    Not only did they rob future generations including my own, the squandered unforgivably the hard work of generations before them.
    No there can be no rose tinted eulogies.
    We will not allow it.

    [The Author of this Post had requested you to stop commenting on this Post, which you have ignored. You seem to have strong views on certain things, which is fine, but your insulting and inflaming language aimed at the Author and another Commenter here are not fine. If you cannot tell the difference between a robust debate and insulting others maybe you should stay away from certain Posts here. I won’t give you a ban but please consider this as a warning – Incognito]

    [TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]

  15. Ed1 15

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018732152

    An appalling decision, but I did wonder about one of the 'rationalisations' given the chairman. It was stated that the ad was on National's facebook page, but the AS appeared to believe that it would only be seen by people who go to that page or have it referred on to them by people they know. Now I am no expert at marketing using Facebook, but wasn't the problem with the US Presidential campaign that 'other parties' are able to target almost anyone. Is it beyond belief that for example a list of transport operators may be leaked to a National support who, acting totally without the knowledge of the party, sends the ad to that list – or to all posters to all those Kiwiblog posters who may not have otherwise seen it. Wilful ignorance, or incompetence by a group who should but appear not to understand the reality of modern advertising? Or have I got it all wrong?

    • Cinny 15.1

      Dirty politics, the reason the nat's won't sign up to FB's transparency tool, to avoid disclosing their targets.

    • Sacha 15.2

      the AS appeared to believe that it would only be seen by people who go to that page or have it referred on to them by people they know.

      Yes, the regulator lacks even the most basic knowledge. Dangerous clowns.

  16. Exkiwiforces 16

    Has anyone heard if Robert Guyton and the other greenie bloke out Riverton way I think, are ok with Southland’s State of Emergency with all water flowing down there?

    • Incognito 16.1

      I hope so. He posted a comment around 6 PM last night and didn’t mention the weather.

    • Robert Guyton 16.2

      Hi Exkiwiforces – thanks for your concern. The waters here at my place are not a problem, but elsewhere in Southland, there are serious issues. Gore has challenges and the ex-Tiwai aluminium dross stores in sheds there is worrying many; it and water don't mix comfortably. Milford Sound, as you'll know, is in dire straits; the flooding and road damage there is severe. Various roads across Southland are blocked and the rain is still falling.

      • weka 16.2.1

        Glad to year your place is ok Robert. What happens to the Aparima in a big rain? The town is close, but is it high enough to not have flood issues?

        • Robert Guyton 16.2.1.1

          Hi weka – the Aparima runs dirty and swells but we have an estuary to buffer our village. My home is 20 metres above sea level. There will be farms covered but stop banks have been in place for decades. If they fail, the story will change but Environment Southland is confident they won't.

      • millsy 16.2.2

        What's a dross store?

        • Robert Guyton 16.2.2.1

          A sick joke, really. The aluminium smelter produces waste. Someone bought it, promising to convert it into fertiliser. They didn't, instead storing it in an old paper mill beside the Mataura River, which is presently very swollen. The present owners of the stuff has promised the store is secure against flooding. The people of Gore are not resting easy. Dross plus water + ammonia gas.
          When I wrote “dross stores” I meant “dross STORED”

          • Robert Guyton 16.2.2.1.1

            "Media Advisory Flooding in Southland/Fiordland Piopiotahi Number: 10 Date: 4 February 2020 Time: 8.30pm Gore and Mataura residents to prepare for evacuation This is an official message from Emergency Management Southland Modelling data suggests flood levels in the Mataura catchment are likely to reach similar levels to the 1999 floods. Two peaks are expected to pass through Gore tomorrow (Wednesday) – the first at 5.00am and the second at approximately 12.30pm. Existing stop banks have been designed to hold this volume of water. Additional precautions and support, like sandbagging, are being put in place in some areas and residents are being asked to be ready to evacuate if required. People should prepare a grab bag containing medication, clothing and person items, including documents. If you have friends and family outside the potential flood area you can go to, please make those arrangements now. For those needing somewhere to stay, we have set up a welfare centre at the Calvin Community Church in Robertson Street in Gore. Further information about a welfare centre in Mataura will be advised in the morning. Residents will be advised by Council and emergency staff once it is confirmed they need to evacuate but the more prepared they are the better. All schools in the Gore district have been closed for tomorrow. Roads remain closed throughout the region and there is surface flooding on many of those that are still open. Please take care and check the NZTA and local council websites for closures. Emergency Management Southland controller Angus McKay said people should avoid unnecessary travel, check on their neighbours and follow the Civil Defence Southland facebook page and website for updates. Those who have travelled out of the region for events need to be prepared to stay put or check road conditions before setting out. Extreme care is required on all roads. Farmers in low lying areas should consider moving stock and paying extra attention to their effluent storage. Lumsden and Riversdale residents are advised to reduce toilet flushing as the pumps are under significant pressure from the extra water. Trampers in huts in Fiordland have now been evacuated, the remaining 195 tourists in Milford will be evacuated tomorrow morning, weather permitting."

          • weka 16.2.2.1.2

            Bloody hell. How long has that been stored there?

          • Sacha 16.2.2.1.3

            Yep, ammonia. https://embed.scribblelive.com/embed/post.aspx?Id=1184208456&ss=1

            Papermill volunteers driven out by ammonia gas

            A volunteer who was sandbagging inside the Mataura papermill on Wednesday morning says they were driven out by ammonia gas after floodwaters entered the building.

            The volunteers were all safe, and some had sore eyes, but they were told to leave by the Fire Service, Stuff has been told.

            Mataura residents evacuated have been told one of the reasons they were taken from the town was because of the ouvea premix.

            And a woman who has always been outspoken about the premix at Mataura says it was time for Government intervention to remove the hazardous substance from their town.

      • Exkiwiforces 16.2.3

        All good Robert, just wasn't sure what part of the woods you lived in due to the amount of rainfall as it was similar to an event we had here in Darwin about 2wks over a 24hr period.

        Have been following the sorry saga of the NZAS doss waste for a few yrs now and I still can't believe its not been sorted out and especially in the way its been stored of late next to the Mataura River, which can get a bit nasty when there's been a good amount of rainfall in its catchment.

        PS. The Southland Floods even made the 7pm ABC's Darwin News lastnight.

  17. Anne 17

    This is dammed disgusting. And nobody on the bus or the driver saw fit to say anything in support for her.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018732659/auckland-doctor-told-to-go-home-to-china

    It’s the dumbness and ignorance that gets to me.

    • Macro 17.1

      It’s the dumbness and ignorance that gets to me.

      QFT

      What I find even more depressing is the fact that it is the same the whole world over.

      Just reported now from the Iowa Republican caucus:

      Joe Walsh, a conservative Republican turned Trump critic, dared to play Daniel in the lion’s den. “Republicans!” he entreated “We’ve got to be more decent. We can’t be cruel.”

      A woman shouted in response: “I love our president. I like his tweets.”

      Walsh gamely fought on even as he lost the crowd. “If you send me to the White House, I will enact conservative policies but I make you a promise. I will be decent and I won’t be cruel. I will be honest and I won’t lie.”

      He continued: “Look, if you want four more years of the Donald Trump show…” but was drowned out by angry shouts in the affirmative.

      Walsh said: “Last thing I’ll say. If you want four more years of a president who wakes up every morning and makes every day about himself, then vote for Donald Trump.”

      There was uproar and loud booing. One man, wearing Trump regalia, bellowed: “You’re done!”

      https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/feb/03/iowa-caucuses-latest-live-news-democrats-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-elizabeth-warren-buttigieg-updates#block-5e38e3128f086a28115a511f

      You just wonder at the mentality of these people.

  18. mosa 18

    Is this groundhog day or a legitimate insight into how Winston operates ?

    A bet each way.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/408843/nz-first-foundation-donor-thought-they-were-giving-to-party

  19. aj 19

    "What's a dross store?"

    Bad News.