I thought Andrew Little gave a good interview with Brent Edwards on National Radio’s Focus on Politics last Friday evening – arguing for business growth but with employees benefiting as well, and that National has blown economic opportunities since in government. If Mark Shaw was to be the new male co-leader for the Greens, that could make for a good combo.
a recommended-listen is ‘parliament this week’ which played about 7.20 this morn..(rnz..)
..it covered a select committee where the head of reserve bank and wingmen were questioned..
..both robertson and norman asked good questions..
..and the reserve bank head uttered ominous warnings about what will happen if the dairy price does not rebound..
(10% of dairy farms straight down the gurgler..)
..and the whole conversation is predicated on that price returning in about a yr..
..now..colour me fucken gobsmacked..r we to take it that the head of the reserve bank..and robertson..and norman..
..are not aware of the perfect-storm just starting to lick at the edge of the dairy industry..?..on two fronts..?
..are not aware of the predictions for the current market-glut driving prices down – to last for the next five years..?
..do they all not know this..?..they sure as hell aren’t planning for it..
..the other front in that perfect storm is the big players (china etc..) gearing up big-time – to inevitably produce an ocean of milk..
..how can anyone look at those two irrefutable-facts – and not know/realise what deep shit the dairy industry/the banking industry/the economy are lurching into..?
and please..!..if anyone reading this has any influence with iwi thinking of plunging their treaty settlement money into the ‘white gold’ of dairy..
..cd u plse ask them to just wait for awhile..
I know a guy who owned a farm and sold, it just after he sold it and while his money was still in the bank word on the street was that land prices were going to drop in the near future , so he decided to sit and wait.
The opposite happened and he’s been unable to get back in since .
While I think it’s likely there will be some come up for auction farmers are very good at riding out tough times . It will be more likely they will sell there grazing blocks , reduce there stock numbers and go back to all grass production (which is a good thing) and reduce staff numbers.
but the reality is that the good-times for dairy are over…
..those prices will not come back…
(and i haven’t even gone near the impending arrival of mu-free – the faux/animal-free-dairy indistinguishable from the real stuff – much cheaper to produce – doesn’t need to be refrigerated..
..so that perfect-storm for dairy farmers really has three fronts..)
However Australia raises the alarm: “Within five years, those massive Aussie cow exports to China will get that country self-sufficient. Within 10-15 years, it will become one of our major competitors,” claims Darryl Cardona, COO of United Dairy Power. Indeed, according to Euromonitor, with a value of $70 billion in 2019, the Chinese dairy market will have overtaken the American one as the world’s No.1. From then on, the Chinese dairy sector which had started from nowhere 20 years earlier, would be an exporting hub, endowed with an unbeatable economy of scale and pricing power…
And Australia isn’t the only country that’s been exporting cows to China.
The thing about agriculture is that pretty much every country can do it and it really doesn’t take any special knowledge.
“”The thing about agriculture is that pretty much every country can do it and it really doesn’t take any special knowledge.””
You’re right it just takes the ability to feed them which could become harder with gcc and bee population collapse . Although I was told the other day that European country’s have at times dumped grain into the Atlantic to keep supply controlled so there’s still plenty of food out there.
With the beef prices high and milk crashing the yanks are likely to kill a lot of there stock which might help prices a bit in the short term.
I know a guy who owned a farm and sold, it just after he sold it and while his money was still in the bank word on the street was that land prices were going to drop in the near future , so he decided to sit and wait.
The opposite happened and he’s been unable to get back in since .
Nah that man got out lucky as far as I can see. Did he make a solid tax free capital gain when he sold? Does he have enough money to live comfortably, albeit not extravagantly, for the rest of his life? Then what’s the problem.
In this financial bubble game of musical chairs, say the music is going to stop 5 minutes in, and there are definitely not going to be enough chairs for everyone.
You pull out of the game 4 minutes in, a minute from disaster, but you are now safe yourself.
Are you then going to spend the next one minute jealous that the music is still playing, everyone else still seems to be having plenty of fun and wishing that you were still in there in the soon to be over game, with them?
Fuck no, that’s the wrong way to think about it. As will become clear shortly.
the smart farmers realised 10 years ago that dairy was a short term gold rush
…and did NOT go into debt!….and some even sold their dairy potential land up for a whacking good price and bought many more acres of mixed crop and sheep hill country farms
….so it is not as if this was unexpected!
…this Jonkey Nact govt has been negligent!….and short sighted!
“Nah that man got out lucky as far as I can see. Did he make a solid tax free capital gain when he sold? Does he have enough money to live comfortably, albeit not extravagantly, for the rest of his life? Then what’s the problem.””
I don’t know his financial situation and wouldn’t tell you if I did. He’s had to go back to having a boss which has its pluses but who really enjoys being owned.
His reasons for selling were because the only way to get into ownership was to buy way the hell out in the middle of nowhere and he hoped to get onto a easier block in a handier spot.
I do not understand the wisdom of our government and farmers allowing the export of LIVE cows, bull and sheep to overseas countries such as China and the Middle East as has been happening now! Isn’t that a short sighted idea? Do any of you know what is the logic of doing that? Isn’t it smarter and better to sell and export the golden eggs, rather than the goose that lays them?
There’s a lot of money to be made buy the farmers supplying high quality stock to China etc I guess that it also keeps prices up for stock here to because it would stop over supply in the local market.
People used to go on about how our helping other country’s with kiwifruit will kill the industry but it hasn’t happened.
Its all tied up with opening up markets IMO good PR and all that.
Just like the latest sheep to the desert bribe sending our stock and expertise has been used by government and business’s to open up markets and target free trade for years.
Exactly!
I began my working career in the research branch of what was then the Dairy Board. We had hundreds of herd testers around the country sampling the milk out put of every cow in the country. Not only that we had the ancestory of every cow and bull and those that were the less efficient we eventually culled from the national herd. This was how NZ increased its milk production per cow over all other countries. As well as having a climate (at that time) that was sustainable for milk production in certain regions.*
Shipping years of genetic development overseas is simply ludicrous as we give away our competitive advantage for nothing.**
* Dairying in the Waikato – once the supreme dairying region of NZ has suffered 4 droughts in the past 5 years. Dry matter production has fallen 20% from 15 tonne to 12 tonne per hectare. With the cost of production rising to over $5 / kg the profit margin is approaching negative territory.
The summer of 2015-16 looks likely with a continuing El Nino (Jan15 – April15 hottest 4 months on record )to be even dryer than before.
Only fools will invest in Dairying in NZ in the future.
** Incidentally NZers seems to think that NZ is one of the major players in Dairying! We certainly punch above our weight with respect to output per cow and our production costs are comparatively low by international standards (overlooking externalities like highly polluted rivers and massive GHG emissions and short lived animals as the cost of poisoned animals (Urea sprayed on grass and Roundup sprayed on grass and Maize just prior to the making of silage). But we are really small players on the International stage. 9th overall well behind India. http://www.nddb.org/English/Statistics/Pages/Milk-Production-across-countries.aspx
People used to go on about how our helping other country’s with kiwifruit will kill the industry but it hasn’t happened.
No, it doesn’t destroy the industry – it destroys trade in that industry as other countries no longer need to import from us because they either grow them themselves or import from somewhere closer. The industry here will still exist to provide for the local market.
This really should apply to all products and produce as the locally produced stuff will be just as good as the imported stuff while being cheaper because of the lack of added transport costs.
This is addressed to Phil, or anyone else who’s interested, regarding the idea about Iwi delaying investment in dairy, owing to the future looking to be what it is.
For some reason the reply button isn’t showing, so can’t tag it on.
Just as a thought experiment i.e. phil’s opinion stands unchallenged:
Two days ago I was chatting to a bloke who is Ngati Tuwharetoa – that’s Taupo/Rotorua area. He was in as much of a bind as the rest of us when it comes to dealing with our daily challenges. Turns out, almost half his tribe, and by tribe I only mean the “officially recorded people who say they belong”, is under the age of fifteen. They number roughly 30,000. This isn’t something isolated. The local tribe round here was almost “offically” non-existent ten years ago. Now they’re recorded as up around 1000.
Now if you were an Iwi leader, I’d think you’d be aware of that fact in far greater detail – both the opportunity and potential crisis. So let’s say you have cash to spend, and the choice is invest now to prepare for your young people growing up, or wait, as would seem prudent (using pakeha perspective), keep your cash, but infringe your cultural values (e.g. neglect the value of and spiritual element of the land to maori) and risk a crisis with your young people. Tough choices.
So as a thought experiment, if delaying buying land that you know is going to devalue, that you know the “plant” of the purchase will devalue, maybe even become useless, what do you also plan to do with that purchase, within that unfavourable environment, to save your community/people?
i think a good choice for iwi would be to look at what james cameron has done in the wairarapa..
..where he has bought large dairy farms – and has converted them back to growing real food..
..he is experimenting with lots of different crops..to see what works best..and i understand he is also making the results of those growing-experiments available online..for free..
..and i am sure that if approached by iwi – that cameron (or his staff) would be happy to advise/help/consult..
so yes..of course iwi should invest in land..(and then grow real food..)..
..but timing is all…and buying that land at the height of the dairy-bubble – is not advisable..
..and preparing for a future where there is no river of white-gold – is really recommended..
+100 pu….i always find stimulating reading your comments and arguments…and the way you say it !…you are one of the best commenters here….(although I sometimes have strong disagreements with you)
….iwi should be very wary about the dairy industry…not least of all because of the degradation to the rivers and land ( that the OLD Maori treasured and which sustained them spiritually and economically)
….now is the time to be experimenting with new crops and food production…and following the lead of James Cameron ….and the lead of ag scientific and marketing advisors from universities such as Lincoln
…in other words proceeding with great caution and with expert university advice
Your thoughts on which foods should be eaten or not eaten by which critters are personal opinions, not arguments for whether particular foods are “real” or not.
“So as a thought experiment, if delaying buying land that you know is going to devalue, that you know the “plant” of the purchase will devalue, maybe even become useless, what do you also plan to do with that purchase, within that unfavourable environment, to save your community/people?”
Pretty simple. Stop treating land as a financial investment and buy land that will grow food for the people that live there, nourish the spiritual and cultural values of those people, and create small enterprises so that people can make a living. In perpetuity. That’s what Pākehā need to learn pretty bloody fast. I get why some iwi leaders are into the Pākehā model, but it’s unsustainable and doomed and any financial profit comes at the expense of others.
Small enterprises, sure, but tribes having land that grows food for the people who live there is called “subsistence agriculture” and is a recipe for poverty and misery everywhere it’s applied.
“Small enterprises, sure, but tribes having land that grows food for the people who live there is called “subsistence agriculture” and is a recipe for poverty and misery everywhere it’s applied.”
As opposed to the poverty and misery that exists now in the land of export, cash crop, market driven economy that iwi are being encouraged to take part in? How’s that working out?
Besides I think you have probably misunderstood what I was referring to. Growing food was shorthand for providing for the people directly instead of relying on artificial means. People do it all the time.
Interesting conversation with someone over the weekend involved in organising the tangihanga for Sir Paul Reeves.
Sir Paul Reeves had, with immense grace and foresight, prearranged much of the event in advance, as he came towards the end of his life. He had organised to lie in State at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre for the tangihanga, before going to the Cathedral for the funeral.
This required an immense effort for the community, who in coordination with AUT, NZ Army and Navy managed to pull this off. As it was a state funeral, the Department of Internal Affairs contacted those involved to talk about the schedule and the budget during the preliminary organisational phase.
Officials from that department, instead of visiting the venue in Grafton, required representatives to attend a meeting at the Nova hotel in Greenlane. You can imagine how disconcerting and uncomfortable it would be to have the responsibility of arranging a state funeral, and to be involved in making sure protocols for the Anglican Church and tikanga are followed – and then be required to take time out to attend a corporate styled meeting in the midst of it.
During the meeting, the officials broached the subject of the schedule and enquired if there was a space available for a government representative to speak. There was uncertainty about why or who would speak, but one of the attendees advised the officials that there is one person who would not be welcome – John Key.
A communication arrived the next day informing the organisers that the Dept of Internal Affairs would not be paying for the tangihanga, and that the money would come out of the Te Puni Kokiri budget.
I have very little reason to query the veracity of this story.
I am no longer surprised at the cronyism of our government, but was momentarily disconcerted by the sheer pettiness shown.
I find that one of the most ominous things I’ve heard it can only mean full surveillance.
Mind you I googled travargo the other day had a quick look and left and now I’m getting emails from them despite not contacting them in any way.
So were being watched buy the computers already.
@ bwaghorn
Did you put them into your Facebook references or something? They are a travel information company aren’t they. Perhaps there is some connection through FB or similar.
No just a quick Google looked at it for a minute max then the next day they turned up in the promotions part of my g.mail as a ad. So there is a link there with Google but at no point did I actively make contact. I wouldn’t say its got me worried but it’s hardening my conviction that anything you do online should be self moderated because fuck knows who’s looking.
Yes there a travel agency
To hear Turia Fitzsimons and Brash on the budget-to-come and needed economic reforms, listen on Radionz this a.m.
at –
10:25 Pre-Budget Panel
On Thursday Finance Minister Bill English will deliver his seventh budget. Few people will be expecting any real surprises. Budgets these days tend to be steady-as-you-go affairs with little in the way of major announcements or wallet altering policies. But if the Government were of a mind to introduce some radical economic reforms what should they be? Former leader of the National and ACT parties Don Brash; former co-leader of the Greens Jeanette Fitzsimons, and former Maori Party co-leader and cabinet minister Tariana Turia discuss the economic reforms they believe would most benefit Aotearoa/New Zealand.
Recent news from Radionz.
Oz escorts more undesirables away from their shores.
Boo and Pistol – begone. TINA. We in Oz can’t possibly offer quarantine services to someone who is obviously a wealth creator doing things rather than profiting from gains made by a computer running programs betting on financial movements or mining something. http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/273792/johnny-depp%27s-dogs-leave-australia
and
Heard speaking on TPPA was some lawyer whose voice and tone fully matched the lies and confabulations he presented on how states always paid close attention to
ensuring any treaties they entered into would be very good for their interests. He also stated that it would be a good thing for states to have their sovereignty over-ruled.
He sounded more like an actor trying to sound like a slimy, lying, disingenuous hound than an actual person.
By the way all who want a good quality radio service from RadioNZ, which I imagine is most of the readers here, will no doubt have visited their new on-line comment section.
If not do visit it, it is on a program called Discourse I think, and they explain how it works so you can add your thoughts. They want comment on their own News and from the listings of presented news at present they have a number of subjects to choose from
which are indicated in the News listings with the word COMMENT at the bottom.
On Q and A this morning, the topic was the Auckland housing crisis. Peters and Turei were interviewed. During the panel discussion, Hooton kept putting his boot into Labour several times, when Labour was not even involved in the interviews at all.
I felt Hooton, the so called ‘expert’ about everything, is a completely biased crap of an AH commentator with an agenda.
Can’t TVNZ get some intelligent, objective, knowledgeable and fair minded commentators and real experts for their panel discussions instead of this professional nincompoop?
I didn’t see much of it but as much as I hate to agree with anything hooton says a full cgt on all assets is the way to go, of course he lost the plot and said that it should be paid on yearly valuation instead of at sale time.
Even if a cgt doesn’t cool the market the tax should be getting collected.
He is playing dirty games by suggesting potentially the worst solutions that would do immense political harm to Labour and the Left progressive parties. He is a snake oil merchant. Forked tongue. Don’t take him seriously. He has a right wing political agenda. Untrustworthy and deceptive, in my opinion.
Taxing on unrealised profit fits right in with the far right mentality that every thing should be about business they don’t understand that some one might want to own a house or run a farm because it might give them security and fullfulment they are unable to see anything past MONEY!!!!
“I didn’t see much of it but as much as I hate to agree with anything hooton says a full cgt on all assets is the way to go”
If Hooton is so keen on that then why does he not ask National and ACT to do that and see if they get re-elected.
Labour has gone into election at least twice so far on a very reasonable and modest CGT proposal of 15% on the GAINS on houses when sold, excluding the primary family home. Even such a reasonable modest proposal was vehemently condemned and opposed by Key, English, Joyce and these hypocritical right wing AH commentators and the majority of voters too opposed and rejected that policy.
It would appear the hooton was doing his job and softening people up for the nats new cgt announcement and by going to the extreme end of cgt he makes the nats plan more palatable. Checkmate labour they can’t score a single point on this or they’ll look like fools and if they attack voters for not going for cgt at the election they are insane
I noticed a month or two ago act floated the cgt idea quietly it obviously polled OK..
Papanui is a state school according to their website. Why are they shoving this rancid shit in the faces of their students?
Secondary school pupils were this week handed a pamphlet branding women in de facto relationships “cheap prostitutes” and “wicked fornicators”, and saying “death and hell” awaited those having gay sex.
The material, produced by the American-based Bible Baptist Publications, was handed out to year 11 pupils at Christchurch’s co-ed Papanui High School during a health studies class…
A Ministry of Education official said it was “rare” for such material to be distributed… But principal Jeff Smith said the literature was part of a resource package the school used to help encourage pupils to make “informed” relationship decisions… The school will continue to use the document.
Congratulations to; “Christchurch mother Lydia Clark”, who spoke up against this. The line; “The intent of their lesson is to enable students to see there is a range of material available and that students need to make informed decisions based on that”, that the school seems to be running with, doesn’t really work when they themself are the organisation providing them with the leaflet to take home.
” Ms Clark met Mr Smith, her daughter’s teacher and another senior teacher on Friday, telling the Herald on Sunday that her initial concerns came from “an unfortunate misunderstanding”.
“The meeting has gone well. They have explained the context of the lesson in which the pamphlet was given to my daughter, and listened to and discussed my concerns,” she said.
“It was made clear this was not an instance of anybody pushing their own religious doctrines on students.”
The school will continue to use the document, but teachers would ensure students were clear on its context.’
—————-
I agree, the ‘reported’ material is shocking and despicable!
But we do not really know the context as we have not seen the entire text or the complete lesson. Would be interesting to know why Ms Clark felt satisfied after that meeting with the Principal and teachers. The article is not very clear on that.
It’s a reprint of a HoS article which I haven’t read, I don’t know if there’s any more info there. I still think that the school’s line fails on the basis that the students wouldn’t have the offending leaflet if the school hadn’t given it to them. I can see the merits of discussing such religious tracts in class, but giving them all a copy to take home is something else entirely.
Damn, read something about the religious sex education BS that’s being taught in schools under a faux secular label put out by US religious groups. This sounds like that stuff that quite literally lies to the children about their health.
“In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss Obama’s ignorance, his blissful strength as he pushes for TPIP – a trade deal about which he knows remarkably little if his speech to Nike is anything to go on. In the second half, Max interviews Tina Louise Rothery, who was a candidate for the Green Party in the General Election. They discuss the Conservative win, fracking and TTIP.”
Anyone else been noticing of late news photographs of John Key which depict him terribly unattractively ? Images across a spectrum from giggling child ‘doesn’t get it’, to embarrassingly gauche fool, to arrogant prick, to cold authoritarian, to ‘fuck you !’ sinister gangster. See the photograph in this link for example – some bullshitter trying to make out the idea was all his all along……like no one knows……hello ?
What a cheek John Key! CGT indeed.
(Wonder why Labour are reluctant to declare policy at this stage of the electoral cycle.)
Of course those waiting for Capital Gains might wait 3 or 4+ years. Surely they should also pay CGT?
Given that both Andrew Little and Grant Robertson gave speeches to chambers of commerce last week, to let business know that Labour is a better management team for capital than National, it’s yet again time for unions to rethink some basics.
Compressed Air for energy storage? “Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels run compressors that fill man-made caverns also used for natural gas storage.
When the pressurized air is released, it drives turbines that provide clean power when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.
In less than a decade, annual investment in compressed air will be almost $5 billion, according to Navigant Research.”
I’m not 100%, as you will already know I’m on prednisone, it’s finally working, but it is making me grouchy, numb, blank-minded and fed-up!
Living the life as a human!
[lprent: Based on this comment, it allows you to write better comments than the many many comments that we have been filing under “spam”. Personally I’d prefer to let the comments through, so stay on it and see how it works out. ]
On an email from Aavaz – Dalia Hashad – Avaaz Every day in Paraguay, two girls between the ages of 10 and 14, give birth to children conceived as a result of rape. It’s an epidemic….
A 10-year-old girl in Paraguay was reportedly sexually abused by her stepfather for years. She appealed to the authorities for help but they did nothing to protect her. Now pregnant and being forced to have the baby, she needs our help.
Is this civilisation in the modern year of 2015?
And the story of the Falun Gong being killed and their organs being taken widely in China.
It keeps being repeated. This is Hitlerist. And from a country still angry at the way that the Japanese treated them in Manchuria. A country that will not treat others better than the way they were damaged cannot demand respect.
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I thought Andrew Little gave a good interview with Brent Edwards on National Radio’s Focus on Politics last Friday evening – arguing for business growth but with employees benefiting as well, and that National has blown economic opportunities since in government. If Mark Shaw was to be the new male co-leader for the Greens, that could make for a good combo.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/focusonpolitics/audio/201754613/focus-on-politics-for-15-may-2015
that was all discussed at length yesterday – should you be interested..
..and a good rightwing-‘combo’..y’reckon..?..
Mark Shaw???
a recommended-listen is ‘parliament this week’ which played about 7.20 this morn..(rnz..)
..it covered a select committee where the head of reserve bank and wingmen were questioned..
..both robertson and norman asked good questions..
..and the reserve bank head uttered ominous warnings about what will happen if the dairy price does not rebound..
(10% of dairy farms straight down the gurgler..)
..and the whole conversation is predicated on that price returning in about a yr..
..now..colour me fucken gobsmacked..r we to take it that the head of the reserve bank..and robertson..and norman..
..are not aware of the perfect-storm just starting to lick at the edge of the dairy industry..?..on two fronts..?
..are not aware of the predictions for the current market-glut driving prices down – to last for the next five years..?
..do they all not know this..?..they sure as hell aren’t planning for it..
..the other front in that perfect storm is the big players (china etc..) gearing up big-time – to inevitably produce an ocean of milk..
..how can anyone look at those two irrefutable-facts – and not know/realise what deep shit the dairy industry/the banking industry/the economy are lurching into..?
(..property-bubble – dairy-bubble..bubbles bubbles everywhere..)
..and/but that the head of our reserve bank – and the cited political-luminaries – seem to have no idea of what is bearing down upon us..
..disturbs me quite a bit..
..how could it not..?
and please..!..if anyone reading this has any influence with iwi thinking of plunging their treaty settlement money into the ‘white gold’ of dairy..
..cd u plse ask them to just wait for awhile..
(and if for no other reasons – than there will be..starting in about a years’ time..lots of over-geared dairy farm coming up for auction..
..cashed-up iwi will be able to join foreigners – in picking over the corpses..
..buying in now..wd be madness..
..that ‘white gold’ is really just tarnished-gilt..)
and please..!..if anyone reading this has any influence with iwi thinking of plunging their treaty settlement money into the ‘white gold’ of dairy..
..cd u plse ask them to just wait for awhile..
I know a guy who owned a farm and sold, it just after he sold it and while his money was still in the bank word on the street was that land prices were going to drop in the near future , so he decided to sit and wait.
The opposite happened and he’s been unable to get back in since .
While I think it’s likely there will be some come up for auction farmers are very good at riding out tough times . It will be more likely they will sell there grazing blocks , reduce there stock numbers and go back to all grass production (which is a good thing) and reduce staff numbers.
but the reality is that the good-times for dairy are over…
..those prices will not come back…
(and i haven’t even gone near the impending arrival of mu-free – the faux/animal-free-dairy indistinguishable from the real stuff – much cheaper to produce – doesn’t need to be refrigerated..
..so that perfect-storm for dairy farmers really has three fronts..)
No doubt there’s some big head winds the biggest being the removal of the production controls in Europe.
plus china and brazil – to name just two behemoths…
..both are investing big-time in dairy..
..our industry..down at the bottom of the world..
..is fucked…
Actually, I think the biggest is that the US has been seriously increasing milk production. Then there’s what’s happening in China:
And Australia isn’t the only country that’s been exporting cows to China.
The thing about agriculture is that pretty much every country can do it and it really doesn’t take any special knowledge.
“”The thing about agriculture is that pretty much every country can do it and it really doesn’t take any special knowledge.””
You’re right it just takes the ability to feed them which could become harder with gcc and bee population collapse . Although I was told the other day that European country’s have at times dumped grain into the Atlantic to keep supply controlled so there’s still plenty of food out there.
With the beef prices high and milk crashing the yanks are likely to kill a lot of there stock which might help prices a bit in the short term.
Nah that man got out lucky as far as I can see. Did he make a solid tax free capital gain when he sold? Does he have enough money to live comfortably, albeit not extravagantly, for the rest of his life? Then what’s the problem.
In this financial bubble game of musical chairs, say the music is going to stop 5 minutes in, and there are definitely not going to be enough chairs for everyone.
You pull out of the game 4 minutes in, a minute from disaster, but you are now safe yourself.
Are you then going to spend the next one minute jealous that the music is still playing, everyone else still seems to be having plenty of fun and wishing that you were still in there in the soon to be over game, with them?
Fuck no, that’s the wrong way to think about it. As will become clear shortly.
the smart farmers realised 10 years ago that dairy was a short term gold rush
…and did NOT go into debt!….and some even sold their dairy potential land up for a whacking good price and bought many more acres of mixed crop and sheep hill country farms
….so it is not as if this was unexpected!
…this Jonkey Nact govt has been negligent!….and short sighted!
“Nah that man got out lucky as far as I can see. Did he make a solid tax free capital gain when he sold? Does he have enough money to live comfortably, albeit not extravagantly, for the rest of his life? Then what’s the problem.””
I don’t know his financial situation and wouldn’t tell you if I did. He’s had to go back to having a boss which has its pluses but who really enjoys being owned.
His reasons for selling were because the only way to get into ownership was to buy way the hell out in the middle of nowhere and he hoped to get onto a easier block in a handier spot.
I do not understand the wisdom of our government and farmers allowing the export of LIVE cows, bull and sheep to overseas countries such as China and the Middle East as has been happening now! Isn’t that a short sighted idea? Do any of you know what is the logic of doing that? Isn’t it smarter and better to sell and export the golden eggs, rather than the goose that lays them?
There’s a lot of money to be made buy the farmers supplying high quality stock to China etc I guess that it also keeps prices up for stock here to because it would stop over supply in the local market.
People used to go on about how our helping other country’s with kiwifruit will kill the industry but it hasn’t happened.
Its all tied up with opening up markets IMO good PR and all that.
“Its all tied up with opening up markets IMO good PR and all that”
What does that even mean? Can you explain?
Just like the latest sheep to the desert bribe sending our stock and expertise has been used by government and business’s to open up markets and target free trade for years.
And the end result will be less trade as the country that we want to open up for trade will become ever more self-sufficient.
Exactly!
I began my working career in the research branch of what was then the Dairy Board. We had hundreds of herd testers around the country sampling the milk out put of every cow in the country. Not only that we had the ancestory of every cow and bull and those that were the less efficient we eventually culled from the national herd. This was how NZ increased its milk production per cow over all other countries. As well as having a climate (at that time) that was sustainable for milk production in certain regions.*
Shipping years of genetic development overseas is simply ludicrous as we give away our competitive advantage for nothing.**
* Dairying in the Waikato – once the supreme dairying region of NZ has suffered 4 droughts in the past 5 years. Dry matter production has fallen 20% from 15 tonne to 12 tonne per hectare. With the cost of production rising to over $5 / kg the profit margin is approaching negative territory.
The summer of 2015-16 looks likely with a continuing El Nino (Jan15 – April15 hottest 4 months on record )to be even dryer than before.
Only fools will invest in Dairying in NZ in the future.
** Incidentally NZers seems to think that NZ is one of the major players in Dairying! We certainly punch above our weight with respect to output per cow and our production costs are comparatively low by international standards (overlooking externalities like highly polluted rivers and massive GHG emissions and short lived animals as the cost of poisoned animals (Urea sprayed on grass and Roundup sprayed on grass and Maize just prior to the making of silage). But we are really small players on the International stage. 9th overall well behind India.
http://www.nddb.org/English/Statistics/Pages/Milk-Production-across-countries.aspx
No, it doesn’t destroy the industry – it destroys trade in that industry as other countries no longer need to import from us because they either grow them themselves or import from somewhere closer. The industry here will still exist to provide for the local market.
This really should apply to all products and produce as the locally produced stuff will be just as good as the imported stuff while being cheaper because of the lack of added transport costs.
This is addressed to Phil, or anyone else who’s interested, regarding the idea about Iwi delaying investment in dairy, owing to the future looking to be what it is.
For some reason the reply button isn’t showing, so can’t tag it on.
Just as a thought experiment i.e. phil’s opinion stands unchallenged:
Two days ago I was chatting to a bloke who is Ngati Tuwharetoa – that’s Taupo/Rotorua area. He was in as much of a bind as the rest of us when it comes to dealing with our daily challenges. Turns out, almost half his tribe, and by tribe I only mean the “officially recorded people who say they belong”, is under the age of fifteen. They number roughly 30,000. This isn’t something isolated. The local tribe round here was almost “offically” non-existent ten years ago. Now they’re recorded as up around 1000.
Now if you were an Iwi leader, I’d think you’d be aware of that fact in far greater detail – both the opportunity and potential crisis. So let’s say you have cash to spend, and the choice is invest now to prepare for your young people growing up, or wait, as would seem prudent (using pakeha perspective), keep your cash, but infringe your cultural values (e.g. neglect the value of and spiritual element of the land to maori) and risk a crisis with your young people. Tough choices.
So as a thought experiment, if delaying buying land that you know is going to devalue, that you know the “plant” of the purchase will devalue, maybe even become useless, what do you also plan to do with that purchase, within that unfavourable environment, to save your community/people?
i think a good choice for iwi would be to look at what james cameron has done in the wairarapa..
..where he has bought large dairy farms – and has converted them back to growing real food..
..he is experimenting with lots of different crops..to see what works best..and i understand he is also making the results of those growing-experiments available online..for free..
..and i am sure that if approached by iwi – that cameron (or his staff) would be happy to advise/help/consult..
so yes..of course iwi should invest in land..(and then grow real food..)..
..but timing is all…and buying that land at the height of the dairy-bubble – is not advisable..
..and preparing for a future where there is no river of white-gold – is really recommended..
Q. Might Cameron be experimenting with GMO ?
Q. What could prevent him doing so ?
+100 pu….i always find stimulating reading your comments and arguments…and the way you say it !…you are one of the best commenters here….(although I sometimes have strong disagreements with you)
….iwi should be very wary about the dairy industry…not least of all because of the degradation to the rivers and land ( that the OLD Maori treasured and which sustained them spiritually and economically)
….now is the time to be experimenting with new crops and food production…and following the lead of James Cameron ….and the lead of ag scientific and marketing advisors from universities such as Lincoln
…in other words proceeding with great caution and with expert university advice
Milk is actually food, FYI.
yeah..food for baby cows…not for humans..
..so you all for mono-cultural..are you..?
Your thoughts on which foods should be eaten or not eaten by which critters are personal opinions, not arguments for whether particular foods are “real” or not.
just a fact – dairy is food for baby cows..
..what is to argue against that..?
And everything edible that plants produce is for the plant’s purposes, not ours. just a fact…
Thanks Phillip for mentioning what James Cameron is doing, I had been wondering what he was doing with that land of his. I just did a search and found this article on what he’s been up to: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/67572692/james-cameron-snaps-up-organic-empire
Should be good for the health of Lake Wairarapa anyway.
i think it is really good work he is doing..
..he is preparing a blueprint for our future..
“So as a thought experiment, if delaying buying land that you know is going to devalue, that you know the “plant” of the purchase will devalue, maybe even become useless, what do you also plan to do with that purchase, within that unfavourable environment, to save your community/people?”
Pretty simple. Stop treating land as a financial investment and buy land that will grow food for the people that live there, nourish the spiritual and cultural values of those people, and create small enterprises so that people can make a living. In perpetuity. That’s what Pākehā need to learn pretty bloody fast. I get why some iwi leaders are into the Pākehā model, but it’s unsustainable and doomed and any financial profit comes at the expense of others.
Small enterprises, sure, but tribes having land that grows food for the people who live there is called “subsistence agriculture” and is a recipe for poverty and misery everywhere it’s applied.
what cameron is doing is testing for the viability of commercial-crops –
– not some hippie subsistance-farming..do pay attention..!
..so it makes perfect sense for iwi and others to take what he is offering for free..
..dairy is down the toilet..and what we do next is crucially important..
..cameron is the right man in the right place at the right time..
..we should be grateful he is doing it..
..as poliicians wouldn’t have a fucken clue..
The comment was in reply to weka, not you – unless Cameron is eschewing the idea of ‘financial profit’ from farming.
So what’s on your mind lately?
How are you ‘in general’?
Do you like when we communicate?
“Small enterprises, sure, but tribes having land that grows food for the people who live there is called “subsistence agriculture” and is a recipe for poverty and misery everywhere it’s applied.”
As opposed to the poverty and misery that exists now in the land of export, cash crop, market driven economy that iwi are being encouraged to take part in? How’s that working out?
Besides I think you have probably misunderstood what I was referring to. Growing food was shorthand for providing for the people directly instead of relying on artificial means. People do it all the time.
Interesting conversation with someone over the weekend involved in organising the tangihanga for Sir Paul Reeves.
Sir Paul Reeves had, with immense grace and foresight, prearranged much of the event in advance, as he came towards the end of his life. He had organised to lie in State at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre for the tangihanga, before going to the Cathedral for the funeral.
This required an immense effort for the community, who in coordination with AUT, NZ Army and Navy managed to pull this off. As it was a state funeral, the Department of Internal Affairs contacted those involved to talk about the schedule and the budget during the preliminary organisational phase.
Officials from that department, instead of visiting the venue in Grafton, required representatives to attend a meeting at the Nova hotel in Greenlane. You can imagine how disconcerting and uncomfortable it would be to have the responsibility of arranging a state funeral, and to be involved in making sure protocols for the Anglican Church and tikanga are followed – and then be required to take time out to attend a corporate styled meeting in the midst of it.
During the meeting, the officials broached the subject of the schedule and enquired if there was a space available for a government representative to speak. There was uncertainty about why or who would speak, but one of the attendees advised the officials that there is one person who would not be welcome – John Key.
A communication arrived the next day informing the organisers that the Dept of Internal Affairs would not be paying for the tangihanga, and that the money would come out of the Te Puni Kokiri budget.
I have very little reason to query the veracity of this story.
I am no longer surprised at the cronyism of our government, but was momentarily disconcerted by the sheer pettiness shown.
“For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens ‘as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone”.
– David Cameron speaking to the National Security Council, 13 May 2015
So the saying by right wing prats “nothing to hide, nothing to fear” has now just flown out of the window.
I find that one of the most ominous things I’ve heard it can only mean full surveillance.
Mind you I googled travargo the other day had a quick look and left and now I’m getting emails from them despite not contacting them in any way.
So were being watched buy the computers already.
@ bwaghorn
Did you put them into your Facebook references or something? They are a travel information company aren’t they. Perhaps there is some connection through FB or similar.
No just a quick Google looked at it for a minute max then the next day they turned up in the promotions part of my g.mail as a ad. So there is a link there with Google but at no point did I actively make contact. I wouldn’t say its got me worried but it’s hardening my conviction that anything you do online should be self moderated because fuck knows who’s looking.
Yes there a travel agency
both peters and turei performed well on q & a..
..given how labour are still stuck up that neoliberal backwater – turei and peters are the de-facto leaders of the opposition..
To hear Turia Fitzsimons and Brash on the budget-to-come and needed economic reforms, listen on Radionz this a.m.
at –
10:25 Pre-Budget Panel
On Thursday Finance Minister Bill English will deliver his seventh budget. Few people will be expecting any real surprises. Budgets these days tend to be steady-as-you-go affairs with little in the way of major announcements or wallet altering policies. But if the Government were of a mind to introduce some radical economic reforms what should they be? Former leader of the National and ACT parties Don Brash; former co-leader of the Greens Jeanette Fitzsimons, and former Maori Party co-leader and cabinet minister Tariana Turia discuss the economic reforms they believe would most benefit Aotearoa/New Zealand.
Stop constantly putting your boot into Labour. You are suffering from Hooton’s biass disease. Smoke it off.
elsewhere i said robertson asked good questions – credit where credit is due..
– what have i said about little/labour that is incorrect..?
Recent news from Radionz.
Oz escorts more undesirables away from their shores.
Boo and Pistol – begone. TINA. We in Oz can’t possibly offer quarantine services to someone who is obviously a wealth creator doing things rather than profiting from gains made by a computer running programs betting on financial movements or mining something.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/273792/johnny-depp%27s-dogs-leave-australia
and
Heard speaking on TPPA was some lawyer whose voice and tone fully matched the lies and confabulations he presented on how states always paid close attention to
ensuring any treaties they entered into would be very good for their interests. He also stated that it would be a good thing for states to have their sovereignty over-ruled.
He sounded more like an actor trying to sound like a slimy, lying, disingenuous hound than an actual person.
I think I heard it on here which I have not had time to listen to again yet.
Listen – 12.14 mins http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201754684
One of the most controversial aspects of the massive multi-country Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement, is the Investor State Dispute settlement clause – or ISDS. We hear from both sides of the ‘loss of sovereignty’ debate.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/201754684/trans-pacific-partnership-and-investor-state-disputes
By the way all who want a good quality radio service from RadioNZ, which I imagine is most of the readers here, will no doubt have visited their new on-line comment section.
If not do visit it, it is on a program called Discourse I think, and they explain how it works so you can add your thoughts. They want comment on their own News and from the listings of presented news at present they have a number of subjects to choose from
which are indicated in the News listings with the word COMMENT at the bottom.
Here is the link http://rnztalk.nz/
http://m.heraldsun.com.au/news/tony-abbott-unveils-blame-labor-billboards-for-victorians-stuck-in-traffic/story-e6frf7jo-1227357181940
I cannot figure out if this is satire or not, scary if true.
Matthew Hooton, the crap commentator.
On Q and A this morning, the topic was the Auckland housing crisis. Peters and Turei were interviewed. During the panel discussion, Hooton kept putting his boot into Labour several times, when Labour was not even involved in the interviews at all.
I felt Hooton, the so called ‘expert’ about everything, is a completely biased crap of an AH commentator with an agenda.
Can’t TVNZ get some intelligent, objective, knowledgeable and fair minded commentators and real experts for their panel discussions instead of this professional nincompoop?
I didn’t see much of it but as much as I hate to agree with anything hooton says a full cgt on all assets is the way to go, of course he lost the plot and said that it should be paid on yearly valuation instead of at sale time.
Even if a cgt doesn’t cool the market the tax should be getting collected.
i agree cgt on all assets..
..hoots was scaremongering there with his yearly-valuation scare-stories..of course it wd be assesed/paid at sale-time..
..the fucken idiot also parroted the line that ‘fonterra prices will be back to $6 again soon’..
..complete and utter ‘faith-based’ bullshit – that one..
..with both him and little being ‘followers’..
He is playing dirty games by suggesting potentially the worst solutions that would do immense political harm to Labour and the Left progressive parties. He is a snake oil merchant. Forked tongue. Don’t take him seriously. He has a right wing political agenda. Untrustworthy and deceptive, in my opinion.
Taxing on unrealised profit fits right in with the far right mentality that every thing should be about business they don’t understand that some one might want to own a house or run a farm because it might give them security and fullfulment they are unable to see anything past MONEY!!!!
bw
+1
“I didn’t see much of it but as much as I hate to agree with anything hooton says a full cgt on all assets is the way to go”
If Hooton is so keen on that then why does he not ask National and ACT to do that and see if they get re-elected.
Labour has gone into election at least twice so far on a very reasonable and modest CGT proposal of 15% on the GAINS on houses when sold, excluding the primary family home. Even such a reasonable modest proposal was vehemently condemned and opposed by Key, English, Joyce and these hypocritical right wing AH commentators and the majority of voters too opposed and rejected that policy.
It would appear the hooton was doing his job and softening people up for the nats new cgt announcement and by going to the extreme end of cgt he makes the nats plan more palatable. Checkmate labour they can’t score a single point on this or they’ll look like fools and if they attack voters for not going for cgt at the election they are insane
I noticed a month or two ago act floated the cgt idea quietly it obviously polled OK..
i wouldn’t put too much blame on a cgt..(as labour have clearly done – in their search for scapegoats..)
i reckon the raising the pension age was the one that turned off the most potential labour voters..
..so..we have labour wanting to raise the pension age and national introduces a capital gains tax..
..it’s an upside down world – alice..
..are labour/national blurring/becoming one..?
..it must be all so confusing for them all..
Papanui is a state school according to their website. Why are they shoving this rancid shit in the faces of their students?
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/342483/unwed-women-cheap-prostitutes-pupils-told
Congratulations to; “Christchurch mother Lydia Clark”, who spoke up against this. The line; “The intent of their lesson is to enable students to see there is a range of material available and that students need to make informed decisions based on that”, that the school seems to be running with, doesn’t really work when they themself are the organisation providing them with the leaflet to take home.
The ODT link also says this towards the end :
” Ms Clark met Mr Smith, her daughter’s teacher and another senior teacher on Friday, telling the Herald on Sunday that her initial concerns came from “an unfortunate misunderstanding”.
“The meeting has gone well. They have explained the context of the lesson in which the pamphlet was given to my daughter, and listened to and discussed my concerns,” she said.
“It was made clear this was not an instance of anybody pushing their own religious doctrines on students.”
The school will continue to use the document, but teachers would ensure students were clear on its context.’
—————-
I agree, the ‘reported’ material is shocking and despicable!
But we do not really know the context as we have not seen the entire text or the complete lesson. Would be interesting to know why Ms Clark felt satisfied after that meeting with the Principal and teachers. The article is not very clear on that.
It’s a reprint of a HoS article which I haven’t read, I don’t know if there’s any more info there. I still think that the school’s line fails on the basis that the students wouldn’t have the offending leaflet if the school hadn’t given it to them. I can see the merits of discussing such religious tracts in class, but giving them all a copy to take home is something else entirely.
You need to read the article at Gay NZ to find the real story about this leaflet. The HOS article is very misleading.
http://www.gaynz.com/articles/publish/2/article_16841.php
Damn, read something about the religious sex education BS that’s being taught in schools under a faux secular label put out by US religious groups. This sounds like that stuff that quite literally lies to the children about their health.
EDIT: This one in fact
More on USA Trade deals…does Obama know what he is doing?..is he a servant for the corporates?
http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/258185-episode-max-keiser-757/
“In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss Obama’s ignorance, his blissful strength as he pushes for TPIP – a trade deal about which he knows remarkably little if his speech to Nike is anything to go on. In the second half, Max interviews Tina Louise Rothery, who was a candidate for the Green Party in the General Election. They discuss the Conservative win, fracking and TTIP.”
Anyone else been noticing of late news photographs of John Key which depict him terribly unattractively ? Images across a spectrum from giggling child ‘doesn’t get it’, to embarrassingly gauche fool, to arrogant prick, to cold authoritarian, to ‘fuck you !’ sinister gangster. See the photograph in this link for example – some bullshitter trying to make out the idea was all his all along……like no one knows……hello ?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11450124
Some people somewhere deciding their feverish attachment of theistic qualities to the bullshitter is no longer apposite ?
CGT is on John (notme) says so. Ha!! so now the Nats are stealing Labours ideas. Has John had a lavage?
What a cheek John Key! CGT indeed.
(Wonder why Labour are reluctant to declare policy at this stage of the electoral cycle.)
Of course those waiting for Capital Gains might wait 3 or 4+ years. Surely they should also pay CGT?
http://www.channel5.com/shows/benefits-britain-life-on-the-dole/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2687734/Channel-5-look-like-racist-morons-say-benefits-documentary-family-afraid-leave-home-threats.html
This series will begin to air on Murdoch Channel 9 next week
Q. Is this being shown in NZ or has a local version been produced ?
I guess the CGT story has successfully drowned out the international response to NZ’s human rights failures…
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/17/un-makes-13-recommendations-to-improve-human-rights-in-new-zealand
Well it’s only young Maori men – so no story there.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/awesomer/the-28-greatest-moments-in-the-history-of-sarcasm#.nhxGYE52W
link – I hope is enough to understand my above statement – but you never know…
Unions and the chains that bind:
https://rdln.wordpress.com/2015/05/02/why-unions-should-not-be-affiliated-to-labour/
Given that both Andrew Little and Grant Robertson gave speeches to chambers of commerce last week, to let business know that Labour is a better management team for capital than National, it’s yet again time for unions to rethink some basics.
Compressed Air for energy storage?
“Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels run compressors that fill man-made caverns also used for natural gas storage.
When the pressurized air is released, it drives turbines that provide clean power when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.
In less than a decade, annual investment in compressed air will be almost $5 billion, according to Navigant Research.”
Who would have thought it!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11448604
I’m not 100%, as you will already know I’m on prednisone, it’s finally working, but it is making me grouchy, numb, blank-minded and fed-up!
Living the life as a human!
[lprent: Based on this comment, it allows you to write better comments than the many many comments that we have been filing under “spam”. Personally I’d prefer to let the comments through, so stay on it and see how it works out. ]
On an email from Aavaz – Dalia Hashad – Avaaz
Every day in Paraguay, two girls between the ages of 10 and 14, give birth to children conceived as a result of rape. It’s an epidemic….
A 10-year-old girl in Paraguay was reportedly sexually abused by her stepfather for years. She appealed to the authorities for help but they did nothing to protect her. Now pregnant and being forced to have the baby, she needs our help.
Is this civilisation in the modern year of 2015?
And the story of the Falun Gong being killed and their organs being taken widely in China.
It keeps being repeated. This is Hitlerist. And from a country still angry at the way that the Japanese treated them in Manchuria. A country that will not treat others better than the way they were damaged cannot demand respect.
Oh dear oh dear,
Looks like 5 people turned up in Ch.Ch. for the first public meeting on the flag change.
Not a good start John…. not a good start.
http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/low-turnout-for-first-public-flag-change-meeting-2015051716#axzz3aO6AzZIS