Almost all of the extra heat that humans have captured by adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere over the last few centuries has wound up warming the deep oceans. But in the fine balance that runs between the ocean depths and the atmosphere, the effects of centuries of dissipated industrial living, we are seeing the beginnings of the the next couple of centuries of extreme weather. We’re now starting to feel the effects of that excess heat.
The Guardian has had several articles detailing the downstream effects of warming the oceans.
The temperature at the ocean’s surface – like on land – is being pushed higher by global heating but can jump around from one year to the next as weather systems come and go.
But in the 2km below the surface, that variability is almost nowhere to be seen. The rising heat down there has been on a relentless climb for decades, thanks to burning fossil fuels.
“The heat-holding capacity of the ocean is mammoth,” says Dr Paul Durack, a research scientist specialising in ocean measurements and modelling at the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
“The ocean captures more than 90% of the imbalance of energy that we’re creating because of anthropogenic climate change.”
The ocean is much less reflective than the land and soaks up more of the direct energy from sunlight.
But as greenhouse gases trap more of the energy that’s reflected back – allowing less to escape to space – the ocean tries to balance itself with the heat in the atmosphere above.
A technical chart in a chapter of the latest UN climate assessment laid out the unfathomable heat gain. Between 1971 and 2018, the ocean had gained 396 zettajoules of heat.
How much heat is that? Scientists have calculated it is the equivalent energy of more than 25bn Hiroshima atomic bombs. And that heat gain is accelerating.
A study in January found the ocean gained 10 ZJ more in 2022 than the year before – enough heat to boil 700m kettles every second.
Compared with the ocean, according to a study in January the atmosphere has held on to about 2% of the extra heat caused by global heating since 2006.
To understand what’s happening below the ocean surface, out of sight of satellites, scientists look at a vast network of thousands of thermometers on buoys, ships, underwater gliders and permanent moorings.
Durack says it wasn’t until the early 2000s that a view of the changes in the ocean – long-predicted by climate scientists – started to become clear as more and more data became available.
We have heated the oceans enough now that we’re getting very strong climatic shifts not merely predicted, but now thoroughly measured at the surface of the oceans and into the atmosphere. Not just the wind and rain that has been shaking my top story ridge apartment since October.
In Asia the tropics are getting quite extreme heat.
Asia is experiencing weeks of “endless record heat”, with sweltering temperatures causing school closures and surges in energy use.
Record April temperatures have been recorded at monitoring stations across Thailand, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, as well as in China and South Asia.
On Tuesday, four weather stations in Myanmar hit or matched record monthly temperatures, with Theinzayet, in eastern Mon state, reaching the highest, at 43C (109.4F). On Wednesday, Bago, north-east of Yangon, reached 42.2C, matching an all-time record previously recorded in May 2020 and April 2019, according to Maximiliano Herrera, a climatologist and weather historian.
“The poorest of the poor are going to [suffer] the most. Especially, it is devastating for the farming community, the people who are dependent on agriculture or fishing,” said Dr Fahad Saeed, regional lead for South Asia and the Middle East at Climate Analytics, a climate science policy institute.
“The heat is not foreign to this part of land,” he said, but added that temperatures were rising beyond the limits of people’s adaptability.
Note the emphasis on farming, agriculture and fishing. These are the underpinnings of our societies worldwide. They are extremely sensitive to weather and climatic shifts. Our food gathering technology systems worldwide are inherently dependent on having predicable weather and climatic patterns. Not something that has been noticeable in NZ this year, or in Australia over their last decade of drought and floods, or in large parts of Asia this yera.
A lot of that is directly related to shifts in the El Niño and La Niña climatic pattern in the Pacific. The recent changes since 1960 in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are now definitely attributable to the greenhouse gas emissions.
A new study led by researchers at CSIRO set out to determine the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the major climate driver, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Up until now there had been limited understanding about the role climate change has already played on ENSO, with research primarily looking at future projections.
Lead researcher Wenju Cai said their research yielded significant results, with evidence that El Niño and La Niña events had become more frequent and intense due to increasing emissions of greenhouse gases.
“Previous research projected how El Niño and La Niña will change in the future but was unable to tell whether human-caused climate change has already affected [them],” he said.
“The current paper provides modelling evidence that climate change has already made El Niño and La Niña more frequent and more extreme.”
The swinging pendulum of ENSO plays a major part in year-to-year climate, with recent La Niña and El Niño events having played a hand in devastating flooding and drought events in Australia.
On a global scale, no other single phenomenon yields a bigger influence on whether a year will be warmer, cooler, wetter, or drier than average.
It is a climate pattern that has been operating for millions of years, according to palaeoclimatic evidence.
The CSIRO study, published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, examined extensive outputs from models without greenhouse warming, each for hundreds to over thousands-of-year time scales, to examine how unusual the last 60 years have been.
To understand the change, they then compared ENSO in the 60 years pre- and post-1960.
They found that strong El Niños increased from two events in the pre-1960 to four events in the post-1960, and strong La Niñas from one event to nine events.
Dr Cai said the observed strength was extremely unusual if climate change had not had an impact.
Even without changes to ENSO itself, Dr Cai said the impacts of El Niño and La Niña were expected to be more intense because of climate change.
“Global warming makes their impact more extreme because a warmer atmosphere holds more water, so when it rains it rains harder, and evaporation is higher making droughts more severe, their onsets earlier and harder to get out,” he said.
But Dr Cai said with the changes to the frequency and strength of ENSO the impacts were likely to be even stronger.
The recent years of overheated surface waters around NZ, probably as a result of the last 3 years in a La Niña pattern tend to drive home just how extreme this is likely to be – even here. New Zealand is an island nation, well separated and ocean buffered from any disturbing continental land mass. But the ocean heatwaves around us have been devastating to our marine ecosystems, and to the large fishing and aquaculture industries.
New figures provided to the Guardian by scientists studying ocean temperature shifts show that on average, over the year to April 2023, New Zealand’s coastal waters sat stewing in marine heatwave conditions for 208 days. Some southern regions experienced marine heatwave conditions for more than 270 days during the period. In the north island’s Bay of Plenty, the waters remained in heatwave for an entire year.
With little respite for species to recover between the waves of heat, scientists warn that some ecosystems are reaching tipping points under the surface, with effects that will be felt years into the future. No one yet knows what it will mean for the fish, seabirds, whales, dolphins, and New Zealand’s multi-billion dollar fishing industry.
As scientists and communities begin to reckon with the impact, the conditions hitting Aotearoa provide a preview of the future of the world’s oceans under climate change: waters around the world are projected to rise by about 4C on average by 2100, if the world maintains its course on global heating. Heatwaves around New Zealand are already seeing spikes that high, giving a glimpse of what it can do to species under the surface.
Some of the examples provided are pretty gruesome, with massive wash ups of dead fish, starving penguins, sea sponges bleaching in Fiordland as their algae cooks off, plus fish species and whales disappearing to more benign ocean climates. But it also affects our economy.
The changes in the ocean are so stark they have been noticed outside scientific circles.
In the hills above Blenheim, between the wineries and pine plantations, trucks rumbled through January along the narrow road. They would make the journey 160 times over, through the hot summer months, winding from the coast to the hill and back again. Their cargo was tonnes upon tonnes of fish: king or “chinook” salmon, the most expensive variety of the salmon family, prized enough that a single large fish can sell for up to $1,700.
Usually, it would be sliced into sashimi, or smoked and laid atop hors d’oeuvres. Instead, it lay rotting in the truckbeds, more than 1,300 tonnes of it, carried to be dumped in a pit in the hills.
In Marlborough’s fish farms last year, the fish had died in their thousands, unable to survive the rising temperatures around them. In warmer areas, about 42% of total fish stock died. The country’s largest salmon producer, NZ King Salmon, announced it would have to shut down some of its farms as the climate heated waters around the sounds.
“When I joined this company, I never heard of the term ‘marine heatwave’,” said CEO Grant Rosewarne, as the company reckoned with the losses. “Recently, there’s been three of them.
“We thought we had more time,” he said. “Climate change is a slow process. But faster than many people think.”
New Zealand’s seafood industry plays a key role in the economy, contributing around $2bn in export earnings and employing more than 13,000 people. As sea temperatures warm, they are wreaking havoc with some of the most profitable sections of that industry.
“There’s been definitely changes with marine fisheries – with a lot more warmer water fish being caught further south,” Langlands says. “I really do feel fear. And feel for the price of seafood in New Zealand.”
That stored ocean heat isn’t just going to affect the ocean. What happens in the oceans directly affects what happens on land and especially in New Zealand. Farmers and urbanites can expect to feel the effects in the short-term over the next decade or so.
This has been easy to observe in the tail end of our last few years of a strong La Niña and its associated devastation in the upper North Island down to Hawke’s Bay, East Cape and Poverty Bay. It included my car getting written off after traversing the St Georges Bay Road River in downtown Auckland. That was rather surreal as the storm water system started blowing its access lids and the rapidly rising waters.
As well as drowning cities, towns, and farmlands, it also demonstrated that our infrastructure was built for a different era – that of the climate we used to have. This plaintive article in the wake of the devastating Cyclone Gabrielle flooding in February was pointing to the once in 250 year flood in Napier in 2020.
It was meant to be a one-in-250-year deluge but the last big floods in Napier, and the recommendations that followed, were a little more than two years ago.
“In the context of climate change, events such as the November flood may become more common, and Napier should expect and prepare for extreme weather events in the future with changing weather patterns meaning extreme weather events will return on a shorter cycle than they once did,” a Napier City Council 2021 report said.
Nobody died in the November 2020 floods but a report to the council a year later shows it resulted in 173 evacuees, 115 homes deemed uninhabitable, and 2680 homes losing power.
The rainfall was a one-in-250-year event, the report said, but warned “events of this nature, and subsequent flooding, may occur more often”. Other reports downgraded it to once in a century.
Fast-forward 827 days to Valentine’s Day, February 2023 and Cyclone Gabrielle delivered what Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said was “the most severe weather event this century”, submerging a Hawke’s Bay power station, flooding homes to their roofs, killing at least seven in Hawke’s Bay, and creating thousands of evacuees and many unaccounted for.
Multiply that by every city, town, and farmland region in NZ. Look at all of the roads, rail, water systems, power and telecoms and buildings that were and often still are being built for the climate of the last more benign century. Like Napier, instead of all of that infrastructure being tested by weather to see if it fit for purpose every few centuries, now with a changing climate it is likely to be tested within a decade.
This makes it easier to understand why this years infrastructure budget (and the budgets over the last 5 years) have been so enormous. We’re not only having to catch up for the later 50 odd years of laggard investment in infrastructure, mostly by the conservative governments and councils, we’re having to build for ever-more likely devastating weather events.
National and Act of course are vaguely hand-waving that they may have policies to deal with this. None of which appear to have any more substance or detail than simpleton slogans. The reality is that they are both solidly stuck in ideologies of the 20th century – because they’re conservative, obsessed by making sure that the wealthy aren’t taxed, inefficiently chasing the poor with punitive and inefficient policies guided more by slogans than intelligence, and generally pretty damn stupid about dealing with any kind of change. You’d think that they never left the last century when you listen to them.
Quite unlike the budget yesterday. Like the 3 Waters programme, it probably isn’t enough. But at least it is a step in the right kind of direction to deal with the already existing build up of heat in the oceans.
Don’t forget that El Niño is currently slated to become dominant and active in 2023/2024. Based on what has happened in recent El Niño events it will arrive early, bigger and more destructive than expected, and cause more but different events than La Niña. Instead of just heat, wind and rain we get more atmospheric cooling from the south (quite different effects than most of the world). It will probably take a year or two to really hit here. But it is likely to be much more extreme that previous events.
A big part of the government’s recovery and resilience thrust is its focus on infrastructure.
Robertson said: “The government has taken significant steps to address New Zealand’s infrastructure deficit. We have committed $71 billion of infrastructure investment over the next five years in addition to the $45 billion we have spent on infrastructure in the past five years. This is the funding that builds our schools, hospitals, public housing, [and] rail and road networks.
“In the last term of government we set up the Infrastructure Commission/Te Waihanga, which developed the New Zealand Infrastructure Strategy, identifying the challenges New Zealand is facing over the next 30 years. We know we need to change how we think about infrastructure planning and resourcing.
“Alongside this Budget, we have released our Infrastructure Action Plan, which supports our response to the strategy and which is crucial to continuing to deliver the infrastructure transformation required while providing certainty to the construction sector.”
The Minister pointed to the need to future-proof the infrastructure in New Zealand for the country’s growing and changing population, climate change events, and to make use of the available developing technology.
“The North Island weather events added a level of urgency to our infrastructure investment planning and highlighted the importance of resilience in the face of climate change and increasing extreme weather events,” Robertson said.
“Today I am announcing a major change in how we address our infrastructure deficit and build a more resilient nation. Through Budget 2023 we are investing $6 billion in the initial phase of a National Resilience Plan. This will support medium- and long-term infrastructure investment and focus in the first instance on building back better from the recent weather events.”
According to the Minister, the initial focus of investments will likely be on road, rail, and local resilience. Additionally, telecommunications and electricity transmission investment is high on the agenda as well.
Robertson said: “As indicated at Budget 2022, the change to the fiscal rules means we can use our balance sheet more effectively to support long-term productive investments such as this programme.
“For too long governments have kicked the can down the road when it comes to investing in resilient and essential infrastructure investment. Today we embark on the long-term nation-building that I believe a responsible government must do.”
Outside this morning, I hear the Auckland Central fire-engines, police, and probably ambulances sirens going their way past, as they were doing through the evening and this morning. Presumably dealing with the consequences of last nights weather…. It was certainly shaking my apartment when I was writing the start of this post last night
BTW: Please keep the dystopian fantasies down to a dullards quiet roar. I've been hearing them for nearly 50 years. As long-term science fiction addict and historian geek, I almost certainly know the scenarios better than most.
This is a post about a upcoming and steadily increasing problem with a little bit about measures that will need to be taken for living with the heat already stored in the oceans. Regardless of future attempts to curb future emissions, the already stored heat will keep coming out of the oceans and affecting our climate and weather for next few centuries. Rapidly building up over the next two decades.
The problem is that we don't exactly have a resilient infrastructure in this country to cope with that. Most of the politics from the right to deal with this as an issue can only be described as chicken-shit and rather stupid. Certainly none that I have heard so far have the vaguest idea about the science or the economics of dealing with this kind of issue. Essentially incompetent to run a government to deal with our responde.
You only have to listen to Seymour or Luxon for a few minutes to realise that they have absolutely no frigging ideas. Both sound like old mean wanting the world to change back to something that they vaguely remember as being a better world for them.
Certainly neither seem to have a clue about how to deal with changing world. Nor do their fawning acolytes.
Labour has been making a start and looks to be continuing that process.
"But air passenger travel is ramping up, anticipating a surge in demand. That translates to thousands more aircraft and new pilots. Boeing estimates that the world will need more than 600,000 new pilots between 2022 and 2041, and the biggest requirement is in Asia. Pilot training is a huge new growth industry, it seems. Aircraft manufacturers are salivating."
the other is acidification of the world's oceans by carbon dioxide absorption
Sure and your point is ????????
FFS my first degree was in Earth Sciences. It isn't exactly rocket science to understand how weak carbonic acid forms.
You really just need to get a sense of scale.
At various times over the last half billion years on Earth, we've had much higher CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases. Far far higher high ocean heat due to greenhouse gases and much more acidic oceans.
Earths living organism genotypes and ecosystems are perfectly capable of moving into vacant habitats and doing it at a rapid pace. Think of what happened during an after every glacial/interglacial within the recent history since Antarctica started form its deep freeze icecap about 35-40 mya. Colonisation happens within decades. Evolution to ecological niches happens within very very short (for a earth scientist) periods
The present atmospheric concentration of CO2 is the highest for 14 million years.[15] Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere were as high as 4,000 ppm during the Cambrian period about 500 million years ago, and as low as 180 ppm during the Quaternary glaciation of the last two million years.[4] Reconstructed temperature records for the last 420 million years indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations peaked at approximately 2,000 ppm during the Devonian (400 Ma) period, and again in the Triassic (220–200 Ma) period and was four times current levels during the Jurassic period (201–145 Ma).[16][17]
My point is that I'm not concerned that Earth's biosphere will survive. Or even the small minority of it lives in the oceans and on land surfaces (the ancestral forms in the lithosphere far outweigh the rest). I can't think of anything that humans are capable of, or possibly capable of doing in the very near term that could kill off Earth. There simply isn't enough fossil carbon geologically sequestered to do that.
I'm concerned that our societies and maybe our species survives in something like its current form. Especially if it is relatively easy to do. The decarbonising of the economies is happening at a very rapid pace. It means that we may be able to prevent taking the CO2 ppm up over 600 over the rest of the century. 450 is a pipedream. 500ppm may be possible.
But we're at about 412 now. So some adaption is going to be required both by us and the species who share this world.
So species are already having to adapt back into other and often older forms latent in their genotype. Shellfish start dropping their shells or start using different compositions. Warm loving algae will eventually colonise vacated reefs. FFS we still have algae strains around from both the Cambrian and the peak Quarternary glaciations for the really hot and acidic and freezing cold.
You don't have to look far to see this happening. After all we are the weird bald species that sweats to maintain heat dissipation. A absolute rarity in the animal kingdom.
As I commented at the top. When it comes to dystopian speculation I don't need much assistance. I could run through dystopian scenarios that you'd be unlikely to even be aware of as possibilities.
My point is that acidification of the oceans means a whole lot of marine organisms, particularly shellfish will probably die out because they won't be able to form shells. That is less food for the higher predators and they will die out in turn.
You can spout out all the science you like to try and impress people but the simple facts that everyone can understand are there: species die out leads to other species dying out.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is part of a global thermohaline circulation in the oceans and is the zonally integrated component of surface and deep currents in the Atlantic Ocean. It is characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic, and a southward flow of colder, deep waters. These "limbs" are linked by regions of overturning in the Nordic and Labrador Seas and the Southern Ocean, although the extent of overturning in the Labrador Sea is disputed.[1][2] The AMOC is an important component of the Earth's climate system, and is a result of both atmospheric and thermohaline drivers.
Climate change has the potential to weaken the AMOC through increases in ocean heat content and elevated freshwater flows from the melting ice sheets.
For what it's worth in 1983 I spent 10 weeks on HMNZS Tui with an oceanographic team plotting out parts of the Southern Ocean segment of this astonishing current. Not a lot was known about it then, and still most people have no idea just how much energy it shifts around the planet.
I look back with nothing but gratitude and respect for all the really interesting people I have been privileged to either meet or work with along the way.
All that is happening here is that I'm a little more willing to be open about my life than most contributors here – because if there is one thing I have learned is almost everyone has an interesting life and something they can teach you. They just fail to see it that way.
I'm no scientist but I love to fish and can clearly see the effect of the rising sea temperatures in my area.
The marlin fishing season is extended by almost 3 months as temperatures stay above 18 degrees longer and we are now regularly catching the beautiful mahimahi- a sub tropical species.
Kingfish are prolific and are breeding on a shallow reef 3 to 4 metres deep which can be reached in 5 minutes by kayak.
I'm enjoying it at the moment but realise it will probably end badly if the oceans continue to warm
We have been getting kingfish down here in coastal Otago occasionally, due to the marine heatwaves. Nice fish to eat sure, but it will end badly. It's not "probably" and "if"
Fish have central nervous systems very similar to humans..
So if you can imagine going about your business..and suddenly a hook in the mouth.. protruding out of your cheek..then being dragged into the water to drown…to be hauled into a vessel..and either left to die.. drowning in oxygen…or to be bashed on the skull..
These are the cruel realities of fishing/eating fish…
Plus fishers…both commercial and recreational..are committing the environmental crime…of fishing species to extinction..
My fishing was done in the bay of islands…when I was a boy…and the ocean then was teeming with fish..
It ain't teeming no more..
This is what fishers/those who eat them…are doing..
And really… it is the only argument you can muster against what I am talking about/living…eh..?
(Tho' I must say… Kathryn ryan interviewed a scientist who works in the field of animal communication…and she had some amazing stories to tell..
And her grand finale was playing a recording of plants communicating with each other…not screaming…but mind-blowing all the same…it sounded like electrical impulses..with a hint of firing up old school landline modem..
So your screaming carrot argument may have some heft..after all
If that is the case my argument will come down to causing least damage/suffering..
But as far as dedicated carnivores are concerned…that other death knell of our export-driven animal exploitation industries..the lab-grown meat…will soon see them sorted..
Looks like the oceans are the main drivers of weather patterns and we are in a downward spiral that will be hard to arrest.
Recent news items showed forest fires in Alberta forcing thousands to evacuate, while northern Italy has suffered extensive flooding (this after months of drought).
Yet international air travel is reported to be at 84.90% of Feb 2019 levels. Go figure.
Yet international air travel is reported to be at 84.90% of Feb 2019 levels. Go figure.
Many people are now aware (on some level) that we're in a "Last Chance to See" spiral – but there's still time (just) to tick off bucket list items, and bolster BAU into the bargain.
GLOBAL TOTAL SEATS (DOMESTIC + INTERNATIONAL)
The air travel data is plotted by week from the beginning of 2019 to w/c 15th May 2023.
The total number of seats in the market is now 3.1% below where it was in the same week in 2019, and 18% above where it was this time last year. https://www.oag.com/coronavirus-airline-schedules-data
yeah but we all got jetskis, chainsaws, hardly davisons, angle grinders, trips to outer mongolia and makoo peekoo and you name it to distract us from the basically aimless infantile consumerist existence we have created
If you were thinking about voting for act or anyone else who has their heads in the clouds on this issue.
Please go back and re-read this post.
We have no choice, we actually have to be decisive leadership now, and whilst you may not like labour (me either) – they do not have their heads up their asses on this. And are offering leadership, albeit a bit slow.
My only issue with you post lprent and it's minor, is that any exploitation of any new gas and coal needs to be stopped – to quote brother Malcolm X – by any means necessary.
If someone is considering voting ACT, then your advice is good. If someone is considering voting Labour, then the advice needs to be to vote Green. It's the Greens who have been leading on this for a very long time, and it's long past time for NZ to empower them. Labour will still form government, but having 15 – 20 Green MPs in government with them would be a game changer on climate and transition.
Unfortunately looking to Wellington and the wee parade of political options isn't where the solution lies. While touting infrastructure budgets and paying lip service to mitigation, they are still chasing trade deals that keep the global merry-go-round going round.
Sure, there are a few things that must be imported. However, there is no need, as an example, for American or Belgian potato products on our supermarket shelves.
You and I need to make the changes that matter. Transition Towns are a good example of building resilience and moving to a low carbon lifestyle.
Thank you Lprent, I read this over and over with huge sadness. So much damage done by our species. I agree that our choice of who we vote for has never been more stark.
Local and personal resilience could slow things, but we have already made recovery difficult and dangerous. Our behaviour over water shows the problems ahead.
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NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff has published an opinion piece which makes the case for a different approach to economic development, as proposed in the CTU’s Aotearoa Reimagined programme. The number of people studying to become teachers has jumped after several years of low enrolment. The coalition has directed Health New ...
The growth of China’s AI industry gives it great influence over emerging technologies. That creates security risks for countries using those technologies. So, Australia must foster its own domestic AI industry to protect its interests. ...
Unfortunately we have another National Party government in power at the moment, and as a consequence, another economic dumpster fire taking hold. Inflation’s hurting Kiwis, and instead of providing relief, National is fiddling while wallets burn.Prime Minister Chris Luxon's response is a tired remix of tax cuts for the rich ...
Girls who are boys who like boys to be girlsWho do boys like they're girls, who do girls like they're boysAlways should be someone you really loveSongwriters: Damon Albarn / Graham Leslie Coxon / Alexander Rowntree David / Alexander James Steven.Last month, I wrote about the Birds and Bees being ...
Australia needs to reevaluate its security priorities and establish a more dynamic regulatory framework for cybersecurity. To advance in this area, it can learn from Britain’s Cyber Security and Resilience Bill, which presents a compelling ...
Deputy PM Winston Peters likes nothing more than to portray himself as the only wise old head while everyone else is losing theirs. Yet this time, his “old master” routine isn’t working. What global trade is experiencing is more than the usual swings and roundabouts of market sentiment. President Donald ...
President Trump’s hopes of ending the war in Ukraine seemed more driven by ego than realistic analysis. Professor Vladimir Brovkin’s latest video above highlights the internal conflicts within the USA, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine, which are currently hindering peace talks and clarity. Brovkin pointed out major contradictions within ...
In the cesspool that is often New Zealand’s online political discourse, few figures wield their influence as destructively as Ani O’Brien. Masquerading as a champion of free speech and women’s rights, O’Brien’s campaigns are a masterclass in bad faith, built on a foundation of lies, selective outrage, and a knack ...
The international challenge confronting Australia today is unparalleled, at least since the 1940s. It requires what the late Brendan Sargeant, a defence analyst, called strategic imagination. We need more than shrewd economic manoeuvring and a ...
This year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) will take place as a fully hybrid conference in both Vienna and online from April 27 to May 2. This year, I'll join the event on site in Vienna for the full week and I've already picked several sessions I plan ...
Here’s a book that looks not in at China but out from China. David Daokui Li’s China’s World View: Demystifying China to Prevent Global Conflict is a refreshing offering in that Li is very much ...
The New Zealand National Party has long mastered the art of crafting messaging that resonates with a large number of desperate, often white middle-class, voters. From their 2023 campaign mantra of “getting our country back on track” to promises of economic revival, safer streets, and better education, their rhetoric paints ...
A global contest of ideas is underway, and democracy as an ideal is at stake. Democracies must respond by lifting support for public service media with an international footprint. With the recent decision by the ...
It is almost six weeks since the shock announcement early on the afternoon of Wednesday 5 March that the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Adrian Orr, was resigning effective 31 March, and that in fact he had already left and an acting Governor was already in place. Orr had been ...
The PSA surveyed more than 900 of its members, with 55 percent of respondents saying AI is used at their place of work, despite most workers not being in trained in how to use the technology safely. Figures to be released on Thursday are expected to show inflation has risen ...
Be on guard for AI-powered messaging and disinformation in the campaign for Australia’s 3 May election. And be aware that parties can use AI to sharpen their campaigning, zeroing in on issues that the technology ...
Strap yourselves in, folks, it’s time for another round of Arsehole of the Week, and this week’s golden derrière trophy goes to—drumroll, please—David Seymour, the ACT Party’s resident genius who thought, “You know what we need? A shiny new Treaty Principles Bill to "fix" all that pesky Māori-Crown partnership nonsense ...
Apple Store, Shanghai. Trump wants all iPhones to be made in the USM but experts say that is impossible. Photo: Getty ImagesLong stories shortist from our political economy on Monday, April 14:Donald Trump’s exemption on tariffs on phones and computers is temporary, and he wants all iPhones made in the ...
Kia ora, readers. It’s time to pull back the curtain on some uncomfortable truths about New Zealand’s political landscape. The National Party, often cloaked in the guise of "sensible centrism," has, at times, veered into territory that smells suspiciously like fascism.Now, before you roll your eyes and mutter about hyperbole, ...
Australia’s east coast is facing a gas crisis, as the country exports most of the gas it produces. Although it’s a major producer, Australia faces a risk of domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shortfalls ...
Overnight, Donald J. Trump, America’s 47th President, and only the second President since 1893 to win non-consecutive terms, rolled back more of his“no exemptions, no negotiations”&“no big deal” tariffs.Smartphones, computers, and other electronics1are now exempt from the 125% levies imposed on imports from China; they retain ...
A listing of 36 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 6, 2025 thru Sat, April 12, 2025. This week's roundup is again published by category and sorted by number of articles included in each. The formatting is a ...
Just one year of loveIs better than a lifetime aloneOne sentimental moment in your armsIs like a shooting star right through my heartIt's always a rainy day without youI'm a prisoner of love inside youI'm falling apart all around you, yeahSongwriter: John Deacon.Morena folks, it feels like it’s been quite ...
“It's a history of colonial ruin, not a history of colonial progress,”says Michele Leggott, of the Harris family.We’re talking about Groundwork: The Art and Writing of Emily Cumming Harris, in which she and Catherine Field-Dodgson recall a near-forgotten and fascinating life, thefemale speck in the history of texts.Emily’s ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is the sun responsible for global warming? Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, not solar variability, is responsible for the global warming observed ...
Hitherto, 2025 has not been great in terms of luck on the short story front (or on the personal front. Several acquaintances have sadly passed away in the last few days). But I can report one story acceptance today. In fact, it’s quite the impressive acceptance, being my second ‘professional ...
Six long stories short from our political economy in the week to Saturday, April 12:Donald Trump exploded a neutron bomb under 80 years of globalisation, but Nicola Willis said the Government would cut operational and capital spending even more to achieve a Budget surplus by 2027/28. That even tighter fiscal ...
On 22 May, the coalition government will release its budget for 2025, which it says will focus on "boosting economic growth, improving social outcomes, controlling government spending, and investing in long-term infrastructure.” But who, really, is this budget designed to serve? What values and visions for Aotearoa New Zealand lie ...
Lovin' you has go to be (Take me to the other side)Like the devil and the deep blue sea (Take me to the other side)Forget about your foolish pride (Take me to the other side)Oh, take me to the other side (Take me to the other side)Songwriters: Steven Tyler, Jim ...
In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI will release Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report promoting public debate and understanding on issues of strategic importance to ...
Hi,Back in 2022 I spent a year reporting on New Zealand’s then-biggest megachurch, Arise, revealing the widespread abuse of hundreds of interns.That series led to a harrowing review (leaked by Webworm) and the resignation of its founders and leaders John and Gillian Cameron, who fled to Australia where they now ...
All nation states have a right to defend themselves. But do regimes enjoy an equal right to self-defence? Is the security of a particular party-in-power a fundamental right of nations? The Chinese government is asking ...
A modest attempt to analyse Donald Trump’s tariff policies.Alfred Marshall, whose text book was still in use 40 years after he died wrote ‘every short statement about economics is misleading with the possible exception of my present one.’ (The text book is 719 pages.) It’s a timely reminder that any ...
If nothing else, we have learned that the economic and geopolitical turmoil caused by the Trump tariff see-saw raises a fundamental issue of the human condition that extends beyond trade wars and “the markets.” That issue is uncertainty and its centrality to individual and collective life. It extends further into ...
To improve its national security, South Korea must improve its ICT infrastructure. Knowing this, the government has begun to move towards cloud computing. The public and private sectors are now taking a holistic national-security approach ...
28 April 2025 Mournfor theDead FightFor theLiving Every week in New Zealand 18 workers are killed as a consequence of work. Every 15 minutes, a worker suffers ...
The world is trying to make sense of the Trump tariffs. Is there a grand design and strategy, or is it all instinct and improvisation? But much more important is the question of what will ...
OPINION:Yesterday was a triumphant moment in Parliament House.The “divisive”, “disingenous”, “unfair”, “discriminatory” and “dishonest” Treaty Principles Bill, advanced by the right wing ACT Party, failed.Spectacularly.11 MP votes for (ACT).112 MP votes against (All Other Parties).As the wonderful Te Pāti Māori MP, Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke said: We are not divided, but united.Green ...
The Pacific Response Group (PRG), a new disaster coordination organisation, has operated through its first high-risk weather season. But as representatives from each Pacific military leave Brisbane to return to their home countries for the ...
The Treaty Principles Bill has been defeated in Parliament with 112 votes in opposition and 11 in favour, but the debate about Te Tiriti and Māori rights looks set to stay high on the political agenda. Supermarket giant Woolworths has confirmed a new operating model that Workers First say will ...
1. What did Seymour say after his obnoxious bill was buried 112 to 11?a. Watch this spaceb. Mea culpac. I am not a crookd. Youse are all such dumbasses2. Which lasted longest?a. Liz Trussb. Trump’s Tariffsc. The Lettuced. Too soon to say but the smart money’s on the vegetable 3. ...
And this is what I'm gonna doI'm gonna put a call to you'Cause I feel good tonightAnd everything's gonna beRight-right-rightI'm gonna have a good time tonightRock and roll music gonna play all nightCome on, baby, it won't take longOnly take a minute just to sing my songSongwriters: Kirk Pengilly / ...
The Indonesian military has a new role in cybersecurity but, worryingly, no clear doctrine on what to do with it nor safeguards against human rights abuses. Assignment of cyber responsibility to the military is part ...
The StrategistBy Gatra Priyandita and Christian Guntur Lebang
Another Friday, another roundup. Autumn is starting to set in, certainly getting darker earlier but we hope you enjoy some of the stories we found interesting this week. This week in Greater Auckland On Tuesday we ran a guest post from the wonderful Darren Davis about what’s happening ...
Long stories shortest:The White House confirms Donald Trump’s total tariffs now on China are 145%, not 125%. US stocks slump again. Gold hits a record high. PM Christopher Luxon joins a push for a new rules-based trading system based around CPTPP and EU, rather than US-led WTO. Winston Peters ...
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the week’s news with regular and special guests, including: and on the week in geopolitics and climate, including Donald Trump’s shock and (partial) backflip; and,Health Coalition Aotearoa Chair ...
USAID cuts and tariffs will harm the United States’ reputation in the Pacific more than they will harm the region itself. The resilient region will adjust to the economic challenges and other partners will fill ...
National's racist and divisive Treaty Principles Bill was just voted down by the House, 112 to 11. Good fucking riddance. The bill was not a good-faith effort at legislating, or at starting a "constitutional conversation". Instead it was a bad faith attempt to stoke division and incite racial hatred - ...
Democracy watch Indonesia’s parliament passed revisions to the country’s military law, which pro-democracy and human rights groups view as a threat to the country’s democracy. One of the revisions seeks to expand the number of ...
The StrategistBy Linus Cohen, Astrid Young and Alice Wai
Australia should follow international examples and develop a civilian cyber reserve as part of a whole-of-society approach to national defence. By setting up such a reserve, the federal government can overcome a shortage of expertise ...
More people could be harmed if Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey does not guarantee to protect patients and workers as the Police withdraw from supporting mental health call outs. ...
The Green Party recognises the extension of visa allowances for our Pacific whānau as a step in the right direction but continues to call for a Pacific Visa Waiver. ...
The Government yesterday released its annual child poverty statistics, and by its own admission, more tamariki across Aotearoa are now living in material hardship. ...
Today, Te Pāti Māori join the motu in celebration as the Treaty Principles Bill is voted down at its second reading. “From the beginning, this Bill was never welcome in this House,” said Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader, Rawiri Waititi. “Our response to the first reading was one of protest: protesting ...
The Green Party is proud to have voted down the Coalition Government’s Treaty Principles Bill, an archaic piece of legislation that sought to attack the nation’s founding agreement. ...
A Member’s Bill in the name of Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter which aims to stop coal mining, the Crown Minerals (Prohibition of Mining) Amendment Bill, has been pulled from Parliament’s ‘biscuit tin’ today. ...
Labour MP Kieran McAnulty’s Members Bill to make the law simpler and fairer for businesses operating on Easter, Anzac and Christmas Days has passed its first reading after a conscience vote in Parliament. ...
Nicola Willis continues to sit on her hands amid a global economic crisis, leaving the Reserve Bank to act for New Zealanders who are worried about their jobs, mortgages, and KiwiSaver. ...
Today, the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill has passed its third and final reading, but there is one more stage before it becomes law. The Governor-General must give their ‘Royal assent’ for any bill to become legally enforceable. This means that, even if a bill gets voted ...
Abortion care at Whakatāne Hospital has been quietly shelved, with patients told they will likely have to travel more than an hour to Tauranga to get the treatment they need. ...
Thousands of New Zealanders’ submissions are missing from the official parliamentary record because the National-dominated Justice Select Committee has rushed work on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...
Today’s announcement of 10 percent tariffs for New Zealand goods entering the United States is disappointing for exporters and consumers alike, with the long-lasting impact on prices and inflation still unknown. ...
The National Government’s choices have contributed to a slow-down in the building sector, as thousands of people have lost their jobs in construction. ...
Willie Apiata’s decision to hand over his Victoria Cross to the Minister for Veterans is a powerful and selfless act, made on behalf of all those who have served our country. ...
The Privileges Committee has denied fundamental rights to Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, Rawiri Waititi and Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, breaching their own standing orders, breaching principles of natural justice, and highlighting systemic prejudice and discrimination within our parliamentary processes. The three MPs were summoned to the privileges committee following their performance of a haka ...
April 1 used to be a day when workers could count on a pay rise with stronger support for those doing it tough, but that’s not the case under this Government. ...
Winston Peters is shopping for smaller ferries after Nicola Willis torpedoed the original deal, which would have delivered new rail enabled ferries next year. ...
The Government should work with other countries to press the Myanmar military regime to stop its bombing campaign especially while the country recovers from the devastating earthquake. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andy Ward, Senior Lecturer in Music, School of Business and Creative Industries, University of the Sunshine Coast Hip-hop is a cultural powerhouse that has infiltrated every facet of popular culture, across a global market. That said, one place you usually don’t see ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cameron Parsell, Professor, School of Social Science, The University of Queensland Igor Corovic/Shutterstock Measures to tackle homelessness in Australia have been conspicuously absent from the election campaign. The major parties have rightly identified deep voter anxiety over high house prices. They ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Colombelli-Négrel, Senior Lecturer, Animal Behaviour, Flinders University Two superb fairy-wrens (_Malurus cyaneus_).ARKphoto/Shutterstock When we think of bird songs, we often imagine a cheerful soundtrack during our morning walks. However, for birds, songs are much more than background music – they ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martín Boer-Cueva, Ecologist and Environmental Consultant, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid Colossal Biosciences Over the past week, the media have been inundated with news of the “de-extinction” of the dire wolf (Aenocyon dirus) – a species that went extinct about 13,000 years ...
For the last four years, one artist has been rebuilding the lost icons of the city in miniature form. It’s a Friday morning and Mike Beer, aka Ghostcat, is flitting about Pūmanawa Gallery in Ōtautahi making last-minute adjustments. “These are actually from the Canterbury sale yards,” he says, gesturing to ...
Welcome to The Spinoff Books Confessional, in which we get to know the reading habits of Aotearoa writers, and guests. This week: Hannah Tunnicliffe, author of new mystery book for children Detective Stanley and the Mystery at the Museum (illustrated by Erica Harrison). The book I wish I’d writtenAnything ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate E. Williams, Professor of Education, University of the Sunshine Coast MalikNalik/ Shutterstock Many teachers and parents know neuroscience, the study of how the brain functions and develops, is important for children’s education. Brain development is recommended as part of ...
Does Three’s new true crime series about the trial that gripped the nation bring us any closer to knowing what happened to Pauline Hanna?We all have our vices, and for eight weeks in the winter of 2024 mine was ghoulishly mainlining coverage of the Philip Polkinghorne murder trial. Day ...
The internet seems to be permanent. But all those dead links are a reminder that useful information sometimes only stays accessible when someone is paying for it. Sometime in the early 2010s, it occurred to my high school teachers that they ought to be teaching us something about how to ...
New Zealand is becoming increasingly involved in operations designed to benefit the US Navy in its space race against China, even as the defence force denies its tentative steps into space have anything to do with military operations. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Honorary Enterprise Professor, School of Population and Global Health, and Department of General Practice and Primary Care, The University of Melbourne Worrying signs are emerging about aspects of Australia’s health system, which will require the attention of whoever wins the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Mills, Honorary Senior Lecturer, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Sydney More than two weeks in, we know one thing for sure. This time, the election campaign does matter. In decades past, when voters were more loyally rusted ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anam Bilgrami, Senior Research Fellow, Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy, Macquarie University On his campaign trail, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese pledged A$200 million to upgrade St John of God Midland Public Hospital in Perth. He promised more beds and operating ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kat Bolstad, Associate professor, Auckland University of Technology The colossal squid was first described in 1925 based on specimens from the stomach of a commercially hunted sperm whale. A century later, an international voyage captured the first confirmed video of this species ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate E. Williams, Professor of Education, University of the Sunshine Coast MalikNalik/ Shutterstock Many teachers and parents know neuroscience, the study of how the brain functions and develops, is important for children’s education. Brain development is recommended as part of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic University Jasmine Waheed/Unsplash Hot cross buns aren’t just a sweet snack that appears around Easter. They carry centuries of storytelling in their dough. From ancient gods to modern supermarkets, these sticky spiced buns have ...
In a TikTok video, Paul described this as an event “to talk about the police and what alternatives we could have to the police and what radical kind of police abolition could look like in real terms.” ...
We’ve known colossal squid exist for 100 years, yet this is the first time one has been seen alive in the deep. Best of all, it’s a beautiful baby. Te Papa’s most popular exhibit is not known for her beauty. The colossal squid is laid out in a sealed bed ...
As the US ramps up tariffs, the PM and his deputy are clashing – not just over strategy, but over who gets to define New Zealand’s foreign policy tone, writes Catherine McGregor in today’s extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.The fracture ...
For more than a decade, a group of self-motivated ‘Stampers’ has been fighting an insidious enemy in the upper North Island. It’s unclear who, or what, is winning, but they’re not about to give up. Gabi Lardies explains.In Lloyd Elsmore Park in the east Auckland suburb of Howick, a ...
A campaign to discourage New Zealand’s charismatic mountain parrot, the kea, from hanging out at a tourist hotspot appears to be working. At Arthur’s Pass Café on a sunny autumn day, every table is full. Staff are hard pushed to keep up with coffee orders and clear the tables. When ...
Analysis: Late in December 2024, the Ministry for Regulation released its regulatory review of the early childhood education sector. This six-month review was the first by the newly minted ministry, which is dedicated to removing red tape and cutting business costs.No one likes red tape. And cutting business costs is ...
NewsroomBy Jenny Ritchie, Carmen Dalli and Linda Mitchell
It was not originally envisaged that the government of New Zealand would be highly centralised. The Colonial Secretary’s instructions to Hobson are about a minimalist state. That explains the provisions in Te Tiriti o Waitangi which allocate ‘kawantanga’ to the Crown and ‘rangatiratanga’ to Iwi and localities. Both terms can ...
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Analysis: US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have caused turmoil in global stock markets, and New Zealand’s market has not been immune.Since February 13, when Trump announced a plan for “reciprocal” tariffs, New Zealand’s stock market has experienced a 7 percent loss.KiwiSaver funds, which are heavily invested in both global and ...
Why should New Zealand care about Cambodia? In the September 2024 quarter, New Zealand exported just US$12.86 million of total goods and services to Cambodia and imported goods worth US$23.69m. Despite the small numbers, there is great potential for more Kiwi investment in Cambodia. The kingdom has a young, tech-savvy ...
An old-fashioned, deadly virus that was once declared eliminated is now back and haunting the United States, with three people already dead.And it could have implications for New Zealand.“Measles is only one plane flight, one boat ride away from New Zealand, so are we concerned? Yes, we are very concerned,” ...
Comment: Chocolate lovers, rejoice! It’s Easter! Chocolate at Easter has become deeply woven into traditions across many countries, and while most Easter eggs are sweet and milky, there’s been a growing trend toward darker, higher-quality Easter treats. There is probably some marketing hyperbole around the claim, but it’s true what ...
Plans to phase out all polystyrene and PVC food packaging have been indefinitely pushed out by the coalition Government as part of its new waste strategy. Single-use plastics have been phased out in two tranches so far under plans developed by the last government, but Cabinet decided to postpone the final ...
Our heat battery in the oceans 
3 hours ago
In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI will release Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report promoting public debate and understanding on issues of strategic importance to ...4 hours ago
Yesterday, 5,500 senior doctors across Aotearoa New Zealand voted overwhelmingly to strike for a day.This is the first time in New Zealand ASMS members have taken strike action for 24 hours.They are asking the government to fund them and account for resource shortfalls.Vacancies are critical - 45-50% in some regions.The ...4 hours ago
4 hours ago
I’m on the London Overground watching what the phones people are holding are doing to their faces: The man-bun guy who could not be less impressed by what he's seeing but cannot stop reading; the woman who's impatient for a response; the one who’s frowning; the one who’s puzzled; the ...6 hours ago
You don't have no prescriptionYou don't have to take no pillsYou don't have no prescriptionAnd baby don't have to take no pillsIf you come to see meDoctor Brown will cure your ills.Songwriters: Waymon Glasco.Dr Luxon. Image: David and Grok.First, they came for the Bottom FeedersAnd I did not speak outBecause ...6 hours ago
The Health Minister says the striking doctors already “well remunerated,” and are “walking away from” and “hurting” their patients. File photo: Lynn GrievesonLong stories short from our political economy on Wednesday, April 16:Simeon Brown has attacked1 doctors striking for more than a 1.5% pay rise as already “well remunerated,” even ...6 hours ago
Hi,When Trump raised tariffs against China to 145%, he destined many small businesses to annihilation. The Daily podcast captured the mass chaos by zooming in and talking to one person, Beth Benike, a small-business owner who will likely lose her home very soon.She pointed out that no, she wasn’t surprised ...8 hours ago
Illustration credit: Jonathan McHugh (New Statesman)The other day, a subscriber said they were unsubscribing because they needed “some good news”.I empathised. Don’t we all.I skimmed a NZME article about the impacts of tariffs this morning with analysis from Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr. Kerr, their Chief Economist, suggested another recession is the ...21 hours ago
Over the last three rather tumultuous US trade policy weeks, I’ve read these four books. I started with Irwin (whose book had sat on my pile for years, consulted from time to time but not read) in a week of lots of flights and hanging around airports/hotels, and then one ...22 hours ago
That's the conclusion of a report into security risks against Green MP Benjamin Doyle, in the wake of Winston Peters' waging a homophobic hate-campaign against them: GRC’s report said a “hostility network” of politicians, commentators, conspiracy theorists, alternative media outlets and those opposed to the rainbow community had produced ...24 hours ago
The economy is not doing what it was supposed to when PM Christopher Luxon said in January it was ‘going for growth.’ Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short from our political economy on Tuesday, April 15:New Zealand’s economic recovery is stalling, according to business surveys, retail spending and ...1 day ago
This is a guest post by Lewis Creed, managing editor of the University of Auckland student publication Craccum, which is currently running a campaign for a safer Symonds Street in the wake of a horrific recent crash. The post has two parts: 1) Craccum’s original call for safety (6 ...1 day ago
NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff has published an opinion piece which makes the case for a different approach to economic development, as proposed in the CTU’s Aotearoa Reimagined programme. The number of people studying to become teachers has jumped after several years of low enrolment. The coalition has directed Health New ...1 day ago
Girls who are boys who like boys to be girlsWho do boys like they're girls, who do girls like they're boysAlways should be someone you really loveSongwriters: Damon Albarn / Graham Leslie Coxon / Alexander Rowntree David / Alexander James Steven.Last month, I wrote about the Birds and Bees being ...1 day ago
Deputy PM Winston Peters likes nothing more than to portray himself as the only wise old head while everyone else is losing theirs. Yet this time, his “old master” routine isn’t working. What global trade is experiencing is more than the usual swings and roundabouts of market sentiment. President Donald ...2 days ago
President Trump’s hopes of ending the war in Ukraine seemed more driven by ego than realistic analysis. Professor Vladimir Brovkin’s latest video above highlights the internal conflicts within the USA, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine, which are currently hindering peace talks and clarity. Brovkin pointed out major contradictions within ...2 days ago
This year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) will take place as a fully hybrid conference in both Vienna and online from April 27 to May 2. This year, I'll join the event on site in Vienna for the full week and I've already picked several sessions I plan ...2 days ago
Apple Store, Shanghai. Trump wants all iPhones to be made in the USM but experts say that is impossible. Photo: Getty ImagesLong stories shortist from our political economy on Monday, April 14:Donald Trump’s exemption on tariffs on phones and computers is temporary, and he wants all iPhones made in the ...2 days ago
Overnight, Donald J. Trump, America’s 47th President, and only the second President since 1893 to win non-consecutive terms, rolled back more of his “no exemptions, no negotiations” & “no big deal” tariffs.Smartphones, computers, and other electronics1 are now exempt from the 125% levies imposed on imports from China; they retain ...3 days ago
Just one year of loveIs better than a lifetime aloneOne sentimental moment in your armsIs like a shooting star right through my heartIt's always a rainy day without youI'm a prisoner of love inside youI'm falling apart all around you, yeahSongwriter: John Deacon.Morena folks, it feels like it’s been quite ...3 days ago
“It's a history of colonial ruin, not a history of colonial progress,” says Michele Leggott, of the Harris family.We’re talking about Groundwork: The Art and Writing of Emily Cumming Harris, in which she and Catherine Field-Dodgson recall a near-forgotten and fascinating life, the female speck in the history of texts.Emily’s ...3 days ago
Hitherto, 2025 has not been great in terms of luck on the short story front (or on the personal front. Several acquaintances have sadly passed away in the last few days). But I can report one story acceptance today. In fact, it’s quite the impressive acceptance, being my second ‘professional ...4 days ago
Six long stories short from our political economy in the week to Saturday, April 12:Donald Trump exploded a neutron bomb under 80 years of globalisation, but Nicola Willis said the Government would cut operational and capital spending even more to achieve a Budget surplus by 2027/28. That even tighter fiscal ...4 days ago
On 22 May, the coalition government will release its budget for 2025, which it says will focus on "boosting economic growth, improving social outcomes, controlling government spending, and investing in long-term infrastructure.” But who, really, is this budget designed to serve? What values and visions for Aotearoa New Zealand lie ...4 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andy Ward, Senior Lecturer in Music, School of Business and Creative Industries, University of the Sunshine Coast Hip-hop is a cultural powerhouse that has infiltrated every facet of popular culture, across a global market. That said, one place you usually don’t see ...46 minutes ago
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BTW: Please keep the dystopian fantasies down to a dullards quiet roar. I've been hearing them for nearly 50 years. As long-term science fiction addict and historian geek, I almost certainly know the scenarios better than most.
This is a post about a upcoming and steadily increasing problem with a little bit about measures that will need to be taken for living with the heat already stored in the oceans. Regardless of future attempts to curb future emissions, the already stored heat will keep coming out of the oceans and affecting our climate and weather for next few centuries. Rapidly building up over the next two decades.
The problem is that we don't exactly have a resilient infrastructure in this country to cope with that. Most of the politics from the right to deal with this as an issue can only be described as chicken-shit and rather stupid. Certainly none that I have heard so far have the vaguest idea about the science or the economics of dealing with this kind of issue. Essentially incompetent to run a government to deal with our responde.
You only have to listen to Seymour or Luxon for a few minutes to realise that they have absolutely no frigging ideas. Both sound like old mean wanting the world to change back to something that they vaguely remember as being a better world for them.
Certainly neither seem to have a clue about how to deal with changing world. Nor do their fawning acolytes.
Labour has been making a start and looks to be continuing that process.
well, fuck.
Excellent post Lynn.
Brilliant summation. I wonder of our main stream media channels will pick it up and run with it. Well, it costs nothing to dream.
Meanwhile…
"But air passenger travel is ramping up, anticipating a surge in demand. That translates to thousands more aircraft and new pilots. Boeing estimates that the world will need more than 600,000 new pilots between 2022 and 2041, and the biggest requirement is in Asia. Pilot training is a huge new growth industry, it seems. Aircraft manufacturers are salivating."
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/121293/us-data-better-except-house-sales-australian-jobless-rate-rises-freight-rates-ease
The line must go up!
Just ask any airline CEO (or ex-airline CEO).
na its the cows i tell ya
lol….so some say
The heat problem in the oceans is not the only problem, the other is acidification of the world's oceans by carbon dioxide absorption.
Sure and your point is ????????
FFS my first degree was in Earth Sciences. It isn't exactly rocket science to understand how weak carbonic acid forms.
You really just need to get a sense of scale.
At various times over the last half billion years on Earth, we've had much higher CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases. Far far higher high ocean heat due to greenhouse gases and much more acidic oceans.
Earths living organism genotypes and ecosystems are perfectly capable of moving into vacant habitats and doing it at a rapid pace. Think of what happened during an after every glacial/interglacial within the recent history since Antarctica started form its deep freeze icecap about 35-40 mya. Colonisation happens within decades. Evolution to ecological niches happens within very very short (for a earth scientist) periods
FYI: Wikipedia
My point is that I'm not concerned that Earth's biosphere will survive. Or even the small minority of it lives in the oceans and on land surfaces (the ancestral forms in the lithosphere far outweigh the rest). I can't think of anything that humans are capable of, or possibly capable of doing in the very near term that could kill off Earth. There simply isn't enough fossil carbon geologically sequestered to do that.
I'm concerned that our societies and maybe our species survives in something like its current form. Especially if it is relatively easy to do. The decarbonising of the economies is happening at a very rapid pace. It means that we may be able to prevent taking the CO2 ppm up over 600 over the rest of the century. 450 is a pipedream. 500ppm may be possible.
But we're at about 412 now. So some adaption is going to be required both by us and the species who share this world.
So species are already having to adapt back into other and often older forms latent in their genotype. Shellfish start dropping their shells or start using different compositions. Warm loving algae will eventually colonise vacated reefs. FFS we still have algae strains around from both the Cambrian and the peak Quarternary glaciations for the really hot and acidic and freezing cold.
You don't have to look far to see this happening. After all we are the weird bald species that sweats to maintain heat dissipation. A absolute rarity in the animal kingdom.
As I commented at the top. When it comes to dystopian speculation I don't need much assistance. I could run through dystopian scenarios that you'd be unlikely to even be aware of as possibilities.
/sarc
My point is that acidification of the oceans means a whole lot of marine organisms, particularly shellfish will probably die out because they won't be able to form shells. That is less food for the higher predators and they will die out in turn.
You can spout out all the science you like to try and impress people but the simple facts that everyone can understand are there: species die out leads to other species dying out.
Sure, but eventually other species come along and fill the ecological niche(s).
I can't recall the book I read, which looked at the effect on the oceanic pump system that regularly recalibrated, but there's a good precis here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation
For what it's worth in 1983 I spent 10 weeks on HMNZS Tui with an oceanographic team plotting out parts of the Southern Ocean segment of this astonishing current. Not a lot was known about it then, and still most people have no idea just how much energy it shifts around the planet.
You appear to have led a very interesting life, RedLogix.
I look back with nothing but gratitude and respect for all the really interesting people I have been privileged to either meet or work with along the way.
All that is happening here is that I'm a little more willing to be open about my life than most contributors here – because if there is one thing I have learned is almost everyone has an interesting life and something they can teach you. They just fail to see it that way.
I'm no scientist but I love to fish and can clearly see the effect of the rising sea temperatures in my area.
The marlin fishing season is extended by almost 3 months as temperatures stay above 18 degrees longer and we are now regularly catching the beautiful mahimahi- a sub tropical species.
Kingfish are prolific and are breeding on a shallow reef 3 to 4 metres deep which can be reached in 5 minutes by kayak.
I'm enjoying it at the moment but realise it will probably end badly if the oceans continue to warm
We have been getting kingfish down here in coastal Otago occasionally, due to the marine heatwaves. Nice fish to eat sure, but it will end badly. It's not "probably" and "if"
Fish have central nervous systems very similar to humans..
So if you can imagine going about your business..and suddenly a hook in the mouth.. protruding out of your cheek..then being dragged into the water to drown…to be hauled into a vessel..and either left to die.. drowning in oxygen…or to be bashed on the skull..
These are the cruel realities of fishing/eating fish…
Plus fishers…both commercial and recreational..are committing the environmental crime…of fishing species to extinction..
My fishing was done in the bay of islands…when I was a boy…and the ocean then was teeming with fish..
It ain't teeming no more..
This is what fishers/those who eat them…are doing..
Think on..!…eh..?
Philip I realise meat is off the menu but if carrots scream when cut and fish are gone then what shall we eat?
Aah..!…the screaming vegetable argument..
The last/only resort of the defensive carnivore…
And really… it is the only argument you can muster against what I am talking about/living…eh..?
(Tho' I must say… Kathryn ryan interviewed a scientist who works in the field of animal communication…and she had some amazing stories to tell..
And her grand finale was playing a recording of plants communicating with each other…not screaming…but mind-blowing all the same…it sounded like electrical impulses..with a hint of firing up old school landline modem..
So your screaming carrot argument may have some heft..after all
If that is the case my argument will come down to causing least damage/suffering..
But as far as dedicated carnivores are concerned…that other death knell of our export-driven animal exploitation industries..the lab-grown meat…will soon see them sorted..
Animal flesh with no animal suffering..
What's not to love about that…?
Looks like the oceans are the main drivers of weather patterns and we are in a downward spiral that will be hard to arrest.
Recent news items showed forest fires in Alberta forcing thousands to evacuate, while northern Italy has suffered extensive flooding (this after months of drought).
Yet international air travel is reported to be at 84.90% of Feb 2019 levels. Go figure.
Many people are now aware (on some level) that we're in a "Last Chance to See" spiral – but there's still time (just) to tick off bucket list items, and bolster BAU into the bargain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Allwood
yeah but we all got jetskis, chainsaws, hardly davisons, angle grinders, trips to outer mongolia and makoo peekoo and you name it to distract us from the basically aimless infantile consumerist existence we have created
If you were thinking about voting for act or anyone else who has their heads in the clouds on this issue.
Please go back and re-read this post.
We have no choice, we actually have to be decisive leadership now, and whilst you may not like labour (me either) – they do not have their heads up their asses on this. And are offering leadership, albeit a bit slow.
My only issue with you post lprent and it's minor, is that any exploitation of any new gas and coal needs to be stopped – to quote brother Malcolm X – by any means necessary.
If someone is considering voting ACT, then your advice is good. If someone is considering voting Labour, then the advice needs to be to vote Green. It's the Greens who have been leading on this for a very long time, and it's long past time for NZ to empower them. Labour will still form government, but having 15 – 20 Green MPs in government with them would be a game changer on climate and transition.
Very sobering.There is a lot to digest.
Unfortunately looking to Wellington and the wee parade of political options isn't where the solution lies. While touting infrastructure budgets and paying lip service to mitigation, they are still chasing trade deals that keep the global merry-go-round going round.
Sure, there are a few things that must be imported. However, there is no need, as an example, for American or Belgian potato products on our supermarket shelves.
You and I need to make the changes that matter. Transition Towns are a good example of building resilience and moving to a low carbon lifestyle.
The solutions are local.
Thank you Lprent, I read this over and over with huge sadness. So much damage done by our species. I agree that our choice of who we vote for has never been more stark.
Local and personal resilience could slow things, but we have already made recovery difficult and dangerous. Our behaviour over water shows the problems ahead.