Newshub have also got approval (“performance”) ratings for the two leaders: (in video format only, sorry, but I’ve lifted it for those who prefer text)
Ardern at net 77.1% (+85.3% & -8.2%, question worded “Performing well/poorly”)
Collins at net 8.7% (+39.5% & -30.8%)
For the party vote analysis, we’re still sitting at a 100% chance of a majority Labour Government with these results, suggesting that reluctant swing voters at this stage are pouring into the party to avoid them having to work with coalition partners and provide a more centrist government.
The Greens simulated over the threshold in 89.7% of cases, giving the lie to Newshub’s reporting that they are “barely holding on by the skin of their teeth,” and ACT are just within reaching distance of the threshold at 3.3%, showing up in a handful of simulations to put them under threshold 99.9% of the time. NZF are always under, but we’ll get to them in a moment when I report on electorates. While Newshub has reported this switch in positions as new, that is again single-poll vision reporting from our TV news, as ACT has been ahead of NZF for three polls before this one, from both the other major polling orgs.
It’s also worth noting what ISN’T caught in this poll: Fieldwork was only open for one day after Iain Lees-Galloway’s resignation, so this may show a higher result for Labour than the upcoming Colmar Brunton/TVNZ poll will, given it’s still open for fieldwork right now, so we can be expecting another update within a week or two.
3 | Paul Goldsmith |
7 | Chris Bishop |
12 | Michael Woodhouse |
13 | Nicola Willis |
16 | Melissa Lee |
18 | Nick Smith |
19 | Alfred Ngaro |
21 | Harete Hipango |
24 | Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi |
28 | Lawrence Yule |
29 | Denise Lee |
30 | Parmjeet Parmar |
31 | Brett Hudson |
34 | Jo Hayes |
35 | Matt King |
39 | Maureen Pugh |
41 | Agnes Loheni |
42 | Paulo Garcia |
43 | Bala Beeram |
44 | Catherine Chu |
46 | Dale Stephens |
47 | David Patterson |
48 | Hamish Campbell |
50 | Katie Nimon |
51 | Liam Kernaghan |
52 | Lincoln Platt |
53 | Lisa Whyte |
54 | Mark Crofskey |
55 | Mike Butterick |
57 | Nuwi Samarakone |
59 | Rima Nakhle |
61 | Tania Tapsell |
63 | William Wood |
For Labour, things are looking a bit more rosy, with the following returning or entering on current polling- they may even be wondering if they need to re-open list nominations, with only 9-10 candidates left unelected at the end of the list on current polling:
7 | Andrew Little |
9 | David Parker |
11 | Trevor Mallard |
15 | Kris Faafoi |
17 | Ayesha Verrall |
19 | Willie Jackson |
20 | Aupito William Sio |
22 | Vanushi Walters |
27 | Louisa Wall |
30 | Camilla Belich |
32 | Jan Tinetti |
34 | Marja Lubeck |
35 | Angie Warren-Clark |
36 | Willow-Jean Prime |
38 | Naisi Chen |
39 | Jo Luxton |
40 | Jamie Strange |
41 | Liz Craig |
42 | Ibrahim Omer |
43 | Duncan Webb |
44 | Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki |
46 | Rachel Brooking |
50 | Angela Roberts |
51 | Shanan Halbert |
54 | Lemauga Lydia Sosene |
56 | Dan Rosewarne |
60 | Soraya Peke-Mason |
61 | Lotu Fuli |
62 | Sarah Pallett |
63 | Gaurav Sharma |
64 | Emily Henderson |
65 | Terisa Ngobi |
66 | Kerrin Leoni |
67 | Reuben Davidson |
68 | Zahra Hussaini |
69 | Janet Holborow |
70 | Romy Udanga |
71 | Ala’ Al-Bustanji |
(72) | (Glen Bennett)* |
*(If National wins Northland)
This is based on the following electorates changing hands, according to a Strong Distribution model of FPP polling based on the 2017 electorate results and this poll vs the 2017 Party Vote results:
Auckland Central: Labour (+6.9% margin)
East Coast: Labour (+0.04%)
Hutt South: Labour (+9.5%)
Maungakiekie: Labour (+5.6%)
Nelson: Labour (+0.4%)
Northland: NZF (+1.6%)
Takanini: Labour (based on PV leader)
Wairarapa: Labour (+4%)
Whanganui: Labour (+7.8%)
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