Roy Morgan

36 comments on “Roy Morgan ”

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1. higherstandard 1

   12 May 2008 at 12:10 pm

   Don’t worry Judith Tizzard will save Auckland for Labour……… sorry couldn’t resist !
2. mike 2

   12 May 2008 at 12:15 pm

   damn you beat me to it..
3. higherstandard 3

   12 May 2008 at 12:18 pm

   As an aside I find the polls are pretty meaningless perhaps in future looking at the trends over a two to three year period would be interesting ?
4. James Kearney 4

   12 May 2008 at 12:19 pm

   Ah, HS was being ironic because he realised the joke was stupid. Mike, you’re just stupid.
5. AncientGeek 5

   12 May 2008 at 12:32 pm

   hs: there is a pretty good graph in the Morgan poll.

   DPF does a reasonably good composite poll e-mail PDF from curia monthly. I take the commentary with a vial of salt, but it pulls the polls together.

   I seem to remember seeing a link on kiwiblog to subscribe to it.
6. mike 6

   12 May 2008 at 12:33 pm

   Diddums JK, personal attack hasn’t worked for labour either.

   On the poll, Nationals ‘soft’ support seems to firming up a bit wouldn’t you say.
7. higherstandard 7

   12 May 2008 at 12:40 pm

   Ta AG

   Think I’ll just wait to the day after the election probably easier in the long run.
8. Steve Pierson 8

   12 May 2008 at 12:42 pm

   I laugh when I see the media reporting polling numbers jumping around within margins of error as if there’s some actual change happening.

   the pattern remains what is has been since National reached it’s zenith at the start of the year and Labour started coming off it’s nadir – National high 40s to early 50s, Labour mid to late 30s, Greens above 5%, NZF close to but below 5%, others.
9. Robinsod 9

   12 May 2008 at 12:44 pm

   Mike you lazy prick – get back to work.

   [lprent: Sigh – I’m sure there is a better way to react to that kind of comment. At least mike said something on topic]
10. AncientGeek 10

    12 May 2008 at 12:59 pm

    Think I’ll just wait to the day after the election

    That is my general view – there is only one poll that counts when it comes to voting. I sort of mix the polls in with canvassing, conversations, and everything else to get an idea of what is going on.

    But I’m always strongly aware of what the electoral commission polls show. The vast majority of people aren’t political junkies. That is what canvassing shows and conversations tell me.

    I ran across a couple of people the other day at work. They spent 10 minutes figuring out that we have an election every three years. They thought it was 4 years. This was after revving me up about Labour and tax cuts. They weren’t aware that neither the Nats or Labour had put out policy on what they would do this election.
11. mawgxxxxvi 11

    12 May 2008 at 1:35 pm

    Definitely looking like I should book a one way ticket to Australia. Come election day it’s looking like we’ll be looking at 3 more years of Labour/Greens/Maori. National don’t seem to get MMP.

    However things may be looking up for National with this other Roy Morgan poll that I’m surprised you haven’t linked to: chart roy morgan consumer confidence

    [lprent: Fixed link to readable.
    I have to do something about the long links. They wrap in IE7 and Safari, but go over everything on the right sidebar in firefox. Digs out the css book]
12. lprent 12

    12 May 2008 at 1:57 pm

    Lets try a test using a long link that will flow off http://petesbloggerama.blogspot.com/2007/02/firefox-ie-word-wrap-word-break-tables.html
13. Felix 13

    12 May 2008 at 2:06 pm

    lprent did you say book?
14. lprent 14

    12 May 2008 at 2:29 pm

    Yep – first reference because I’ve read the thing several times and I know where to find things in it.

    Then I head to the web afterwards to find the limitations, gotcha’s, and alternate approaches. Google is great, but it is often easier if you know the words you’re hunting for in the first place.

    It isn’t like c++ where I work normally and I hold the syntax, standard libraries, large chunks of the system API’s for posix and Win32, and the STL in my wetware
15. r0b 15

    12 May 2008 at 2:30 pm

    lprent did you say book?

    It’s a primitive write once read only tablet style document viewer. very high resolution. They used to be quite popular. You really should try them…
16. mawgxxxxvi 16

    12 May 2008 at 3:36 pm

    Anyone tried IE 8 beta? It breaks everything.
17. lprent 17

    12 May 2008 at 3:36 pm

    Ok that did it. Couldn’t do it with css. But I filtered it to add in the non-standard <wbr> after punctuation /.-:

    I suppose I’d better back on to what I was working on
18. lprent 18

    12 May 2008 at 3:41 pm

    maw: all I can say is mickeysoft, mickeysoft and mickeysoft.

    If I’m lucky – it probably is just conformant and doesn’t support some of the old hacks that they plugged into previous browsers.

    When I do sites (mainly web applications) these days I write with firefox which gets me pretty much everything apart from IE. Then I write hacks for the antique trident engine that IE uses.
19. lprent 19

    12 May 2008 at 3:43 pm

    maw: how badly does it break this site?
20. Ari 20

    12 May 2008 at 4:11 pm

    If Winston got Tauranga with results like these, that’d probably mean a fourth Labour term. It’s interesting how close it is though- if you count NZF out like Roy Morgan did, then Act and National are only three seats up, which is a very tenuous position to be when it comes to conscience votes.
21. outofbed 21

    12 May 2008 at 7:52 pm

    I think that it in labours interest that Peters does not win Tauranga
    In fact Labour voters in Tauranga should probably vote for the Nat candidate
22. mike 22

    12 May 2008 at 9:27 pm

    “if you count NZF out like Roy Morgan did, then Act and National are only three seats up”

    I make it 6 seats on this poll, but why are you assuming Maori will go will Labour?
    Its a 50/50 call. Turiana likes Clark less than Key.
23. Felix 23

    12 May 2008 at 10:08 pm

    I don’t think it’s ever been safe to assume that the Maori Party will go with Labour, but it seems highly unlikely that they could ever support a National government given their consultation-based approach and the traditional patterns of Maori voters.

    I’ve always read their tacit potential support for the Nats as jockeying for position rather than any serious desire to get in bed with them.

    As we’ve seen though, nothing is certain in MMP until the deal is done.
24. mawgxxxxvi 24

    13 May 2008 at 6:02 am

    Wouldn’t it be electoral suicide for National to go into coalition with the Maori party?
25. mawgxxxxvi 25

    13 May 2008 at 7:12 am

    lprent: have uploaded a screenshot of thestandard.org.nz viewed in IE8 here http://www.flickr.com/photos/mawgxxxxiv/

    [lprent: Thanks – I’ll have a look at it after work.]
26. TomS 26

    13 May 2008 at 8:16 am

    I just plugged the numbers into the electoral commission website seat calculator, but assumed ACT didn’t win Epsom and the Maori Party won all seven seats and it comes to Nat+United 64 Lab+Green+Prog+Maori 61 in a 125 seat parliament. So really, its neck and neck with the left needing to claw back 2% to win.
27. Phil 27

    13 May 2008 at 8:55 am

    Sure, assume ACT doesn’t win Epsom… what planet are you on?

    More broadly on the Maori party;
    I have always contended that they will side with Labour if a workable arrangement is possible, presumably with the Greens too.
    However, if an arrangement cannot be reached – and polling trends indicate that it probably isn’t achievable – it is entirely logical that they would seek to have influence as part of a National government.
28. TomS 28

    13 May 2008 at 10:34 am

    What planet? Well I know four Epsom voters who voted Rodney last election who are sick and tired of having an absentee mid-life crisis as an MP and will vote National this time. The only thing that may save Rodney’s neck is the the fact that the Natiaonal party’s absentee aristocrat candidate is equally appalling.

    Fancy one of the richest, “smartest” electorates in NZ having such a poor choice.
29. lprent 29

    13 May 2008 at 8:01 pm

    mawgxxxxvi: Looks good in IE8 from what I could see, I can’t see any major defects. WordPress codes very very close to the standard‘s 🙂

    I’ll try it out on a machine here sometime this week.
30. mawgxxxxvi 30

    13 May 2008 at 9:24 pm

    lprent: yes WordPress blogs look fine in IE8. I tried uploading to YouTube in IE8 today and it all fell apart when I tried setting the video date and map location. I had to revert to IE7 emulation mode. I generally stay away from IE 7 and mostly use Flock: the socialist… I mean social browser 🙂
31. lprent 31

    13 May 2008 at 10:46 pm

    Haven’t tried flock. I’m well known for being devoutly anti-social.

    So many toys to write and/or play around with and so little time. Besides people are simple. All you have to do is figure out the rationalizations they’re using to hide from themselves today. But I’m a bit cynical and have over developed wetware about people.

    Anyway, there is a new search engine on the site now. It caused a massive slow down in the site while it indexed everything. It should make rOb happy. I’ll tweak the parameters when I get a bit of time. And I need to do a paypal to the writer so I can legitimately turn off his little kitten message.

    All I can say is that he obviously hasn’t looked closely at cats. For a good cynical look at cats I’d recommend Terry Pratchett’s book about Real Cats.

    Ummm I wonder what the extra couple of tables will do the backup size. I’ll have a look at the 2400 backup when it runs.
32. r0b 32

    13 May 2008 at 11:42 pm

    Oh! Search unleashed – shiny toys! Happy happy 🙂
33. lprent 33

    13 May 2008 at 11:51 pm

    I’ll run another reindex before I hit the sack with better params. It takes a while to run. But I’m happy with its runtime performance as comments are added. No great overhead
34. r0b 34

    13 May 2008 at 11:51 pm

    Lynn – looks nice, a few glitches? Viewing with Safari 3.0.4.

    If you type in the search box it does its “working spin” icon for a bit, then often comes up with Not Found. But press return and it re loads the page (with search terms in the url) and finds many results. In this case if there is more than one page of results the link to “older” at the top of the page fails (brings up a Not Found page again)…
35. lprent 35

    13 May 2008 at 11:53 pm

    It is an ajax system, and it is a bit sensitive about when you’ve stopped typing.

    I’ll have a look at the javascript and make it less sensitive
36. r0b 36

    14 May 2008 at 12:08 am

    I wondered if the first issue was related to the two Search Modes described on the search unleashed page. And that still leaves the second issue – the “older” link doesn’t work.

    “The caveat of fulltext searching is that it only applies to whole words longer than four characters” – hah! – that’ll learn me for choosing r0b!

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