Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 9:44 am, May 23rd, 2008 - 23 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

There was a Roy Morgan poll out yesterday showing a gap of 14 between National and Labour. Party support varied only slightly from the previous Morgan poll.

The Morgan poll differs hugely from the controversial Fairfax poll from a week or so ago which showed a gap of 27 points. This just goes to show how large a role polling methodology plays in these matters.

The other thing worthy of mention is how lazy the analysis is in these Morgan polls. Having gone to such a lot of effort to get the quantitative info, they just seem to give up when it comes to doing the qualitative work.

23 comments on “Roy Morgan ”

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  1. outofbed 1
    23 May 2008 at 10:23 am

    So in spite of massive a massive media campaign saying that Labour has no chance and are facing oblivion, there is only that thin sliver of 3% that needs to change for a LGMP Government
    Perhaps journos should attend how mmp works courses.
    National are Toast

  2. gobsmacked 2
    23 May 2008 at 10:43 am

    Looks like John Key may need Winston after all.

    In which case, the embassy in Sweden stays – so no tax cuts!

  3. Matthew Pilott 3
    23 May 2008 at 10:52 am

    gobsmacked – Gold!

    Of all the things possible, Key goes for a Swedish embassy. Neither substance nor style, that man…

  4. outofbed 4
    23 May 2008 at 11:06 am

    When is the tv3 poll ?

  5. Stephen 5
    23 May 2008 at 11:09 am

    im sick of polls

  6. Ari 6
    23 May 2008 at 11:12 am

    A maximum of four seats up for the right, backing up our doubts on that previous poll as being rogue, if not totally confirming it.

    I’ll be very interested to see Roy Morgan’s next poll, after the budget has sunk in. There’s no doubt that this is gonna run close, but Labour could still grab a fourth term if they’re smart.

    Matthew: quite, lol. Swedish embassy? I mean, come on. There are juicier targets, and New Zealand has always done very well diplomatically, and I think many people aren’t going to buy that we should take our hand out of that area during hard times. The reality is simply that Key can’t shore up the cash he needs and Labour has put up a competitive package of tax cuts that run as close as prudence allows to what he was so recklessly offering.

  7. National disgrace 7
    23 May 2008 at 11:27 am

    So Labour are within the margin of error ( and let’s all agree on the blistering accuracy of NZ polls)of what they formed a government with in 05, but they are gone for all money. Interesting conclusion.
    The money I have punted ( at excellent odds) on a fourth term is looking like a very good investment.

  8. Policy Parrot 8
    23 May 2008 at 11:34 am

    While I am a Labour supporter, this poll doesn’t even take account of the fact that Maori Party may in fact take 1-3 further seats from Labour, producing a further overhang. No wonder the Nats are in a quibble about MMP.

    On 2 seats going to the Maori Party, Nanaia holding hers, Labour-Greens-Progressive-Maori Party would hold 60 seats to National-Act-United’s 64.

    What this poll illustrates, and further ones will hopefully demonstrate further, is that National support is soft, and that Labour support has essentially bottomed out. Once National’s tax cuts plan is announced, like last time, they’ll be finished.

  9. Matthew Pilott 9
    23 May 2008 at 11:51 am

    Ari – what I find absurd was Key targeting the proposed Swedish Embassy, and last night he was talking of shit-canning the increase in overseas staff for MFaT. If having better trade links internationally isn’t a good way of increasing growth I don’t know what is.

    I’ll be honest and say I’m happy to believe that Key isn’t as thick as your average 2 * 4 – but what on earth is he on about?!

  10. Ari 10
    23 May 2008 at 12:00 pm

    Well, I’m on record in a number of places as saying that some of the real right-wingers get a little religious on cutting taxes.

    I’ve long since stopped questioning that they seriously believe that cutting taxes as much as possible always helps the economy, and that mostly anything is a target to them in that goal, so long as they can avoid being questioned on it. I find it a little sad that they won’t actually come out and say what they really believe on record, however- hence why the “slippery” label has stuck so well.

    As for cutting ties with Sweden? Key is an anglocentric. He believes that foreign policy is best lined up with Australia, the UK, and the USA, (and maybe Canada if we’re feeling nice) and I have a feeling he thinks of trade agreements along the same lines. Apparently other people should come to US for free trade- never mind that withdrawing your embassy is a pretty big insult and likely to slow down any process that does happen.

  11. TomS 11
    23 May 2008 at 12:10 pm

    Meh. Sweden has banned smacking. Setting up a embassy in Sweden is just more evidence of the anti-God and anti-patriachal witches creating alliances with the pagan Vikings to undermine good, child thrashing christian values.

  12. jafapete 12
    23 May 2008 at 12:24 pm

    I am still not sure that we should be counting on the Maori Party to support Labour. It will take a lot of persuading Tariana Turia, that’s for sure.

    On a very minor point (hehe), The ACT Party vote has responded exactly as some of us predicted to the news that Roger Douglas is back on board. 1%.

  13. Lew 13
    23 May 2008 at 12:30 pm

    Ari: “Well, I’m on record in a number of places as saying that some of the real right-wingers get a little religious on cutting taxes.”

    This is Cullen’s line on Key – I think it was on Checkpoint last night. Words to the effect that Key talks about them like an evangelist: “We believe in the power of tax cuts!”

    I had the same feeling during his response speech, but I bet it resonates with a big chunk of the electorate.

    L

  14. gobsmacked 14
    23 May 2008 at 12:42 pm

    Key’s “Sweden” line doesn’t merit any geo-political/economic analysis.

    It’s meant to say: Phwoaaar. Fleshpots. Taxpayer-funded bureaucrats getting jiggy with buxom blondes. As somebody said on here yesterday, it’s this year’s hip-hop tours.

    After the “Hollow Men”, Key and his scriptwriters are beyond parody.

  15. Policy Parrot 15
    23 May 2008 at 1:01 pm

    “I am still not sure that we should be counting on the Maori Party to support Labour. It will take a lot of persuading Tariana Turia, that’s for sure.”

    While I agree with you about Tariana, jafapete, it is interesting to look at the criticisms of this Budget from Hone Harawira, and Pita Sharples on the Minimum Wage Amendment Bill.

    Mentioning the word ‘proletariat’ in a press release would imply that one was hardly endeared to the values of the National party.

    Captcha: “Misleading me” Hahaha – Good thread for that.

  16. alex 16
    23 May 2008 at 1:46 pm

    Peeps,

    What is the deal with forming a MMP government post election?

    Does the party who has the most votes have first dibs at trying to form the new government, or can both national and labour simultaneously broker talks with the smaller parties, leaving a smaller party to determine ultimately who is going to govern (if the vote math allows both labour or national to form the government)?

  17. gobsmacked 17
    23 May 2008 at 1:59 pm

    Alex

    It’s entirely up to them. The 1996 experience of NZ First to-ing and fro-ing between National and Labour, and doing it over many weeks, has put all parties off the idea of repeating that approach (except maybe Winston!). So probably one party will get in first.

    But if (e.g.) National have more seats, and get Dunne, Peters etc to talk to them first, there’s no rule that says Labour have to sit quietly and do nothing – just as Don Brash didn’t in 2005.

  18. Lew 18
    23 May 2008 at 2:00 pm

    Alex: Any party leader can approach the Governor-General at any time after the election with proof of support (or the absence of opposition) from other parties demonstrating that they have 50%+1 in parliament. There’s no `first dibs’ right as I understand.

    L

  19. Pascal's bookie 19
    23 May 2008 at 2:01 pm

    alex, essentially it’s option 2.

    A govt is formed by whatever party or group of parties can command a majority in the house. That group may or may not include the party with the largest plurality of votes from the electorate.

  20. Stephen 20
    23 May 2008 at 8:14 pm

    Although many small parties are under pressure to declare their allegiance BEFORE the election, so the maybe more to-ing and fro-ing is now done before the election.

  21. Aj 21
    24 May 2008 at 11:23 am

    I’m surprised this poll hasn’t got the media attention of the Faifax poll. Not.

  22. Historian 22
    24 May 2008 at 12:06 pm

    All you need to know about polls, campaigns and voter volatility, in one easy lesson:

    Opinion Poll, April 2002 (One News/Colmar Brunton) Labour 53%

    Election Result, July 2002: Labour 41%

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