A TV1 poll came out yesterday, showing no change in the major parties (Labour National and Greens all up 1%, all margin of error stuff). The good news is that Key is down 4% as preferred PM, and Shearer has debuted well at 11%.
Many would have expected a drop in National’s polling giving the awful couple of week’s they’ve had, but shifts in polling opinion always lag behind events. Bear in mind also that TV1 polls have a poor record in practice, and the Nats were down 3% in the most recent TV3 poll. (You can catch Frank Macskasy’s take on the TV1 poll here.) In other polling related news, iPredict has Labour at 52% probability of leading the next government.
They say that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. National is working pretty hard at that just lately, and their fall will be reflected in polling over the course of the year. Even so, Labour can’t afford to sit about and wait for the next election to drop into their lap. Get the organisational review done, get the policy review done, and then let’s see Labour on the campaign trail as soon as possible…
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