With all the preliminary votes counted for the night, so let’s look at who’s in most likely and out:
Electorate MPs: (Alphabetically by winner’s party name, then by electorate name, a slight reformatting of the official results)
| Electorate | Leading candidate |
| Epsom | SEYMOUR, David Breen (ACT) |
| Auckland Central | SWARBRICK, Chlöe (GP) |
| Banks Peninsula | McLELLAN, Tracey Lee (LAB) |
| Christchurch Central | WEBB, Duncan (LAB) |
| Christchurch East | WILLIAMS, Poto (LAB) |
| Dunedin | CLARK, David (LAB) |
| East Coast | ALLAN, Kiri (LAB) |
| Hamilton East | STRANGE, Jamie (LAB) |
| Hamilton West | SHARMA, Gaurav (LAB) |
| Hutt South | ANDERSEN, Ginny (LAB) |
| Ilam | PALLETT, Sarah (LAB) |
| Kelston | SEPULONI, Carmel Jean (LAB) |
| Mana | EDMONDS, Barbara (LAB) |
| Māngere | SIO, Aupito William (LAB) |
| Manurewa | WILLIAMS, Arena (LAB) |
| Mt Albert | ARDERN, Jacinda (LAB) |
| Mt Roskill | WOOD, Michael Philip (LAB) |
| Napier | NASH, Stuart (LAB) |
| Nelson | BOYACK, Rachel (LAB) |
| New Lynn | RUSSELL, Deborah (LAB) |
| New Plymouth | BENNETT, Glen (LAB) |
| Northcote | HALBERT, Shanan (LAB) |
| Ōhāriu | O’CONNOR, Greg (LAB) |
| Ōtaki | NGOBI, Terisa (LAB) |
| Palmerston North | UTIKERE, Tangi (LAB) |
| Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | SALESA, Jenny (LAB) |
| Rangitata | LUXTON, Jo (LAB) |
| Remutaka | HIPKINS, Chris (LAB) |
| Rongotai | EAGLE, Paul (LAB) |
| Taieri | LEARY, Ingrid (LAB) |
| Takanini | LEAVASA, Neru (LAB) |
| Te Atatū | TWYFORD, Phil (LAB) |
| Tukituki | LORCK, Anna (LAB) |
| Upper Harbour | WALTERS, Vanushi (LAB) |
| Wairarapa | McANULTY, Kieran (LAB) |
| Wellington Central | ROBERTSON, Grant (LAB) |
| West Coast-Tasman | O’CONNOR, Damien (LAB) |
| Whanganui | LEWIS, Steph (LAB) |
| Wigram | WOODS, Megan (LAB) |
| Hauraki-Waikato | MAHUTA, Nanaia (LAB) |
| Ikaroa-Rāwhiti | WHAITIRI, Meka (LAB) |
| Tāmaki Makaurau | HENARE, Peeni (LAB) |
| Te Tai Hauāuru | RURAWHE, Adrian (LAB) |
| Te Tai Tokerau | DAVIS, Kelvin (LAB) |
| Te Tai Tonga | TIRIKATENE, Rino (LAB) |
| Waiariki | WAITITI, Rawiri (MAOR) |
| Bay of Plenty | MULLER, Todd (NAT) |
| Botany | LUXON, Christopher (NAT) |
| Coromandel | SIMPSON, Scott (NAT) |
| East Coast Bays | STANFORD, Erica (NAT) |
| Invercargill | SIMMONDS, Penny (NAT) |
| Kaikōura | SMITH, Stuart (NAT) |
| Kaipara ki Mahurangi | PENK, Chris (NAT) |
| Maungakiekie | LEE, Denise (NAT) |
| North Shore | WATTS, Simon (NAT) |
| Northland | KING, Matt (NAT) |
| Pakuranga | BROWN, Simeon (NAT) |
| Papakura | COLLINS, Judith (NAT) |
| Port Waikato | BAYLY, Andrew (NAT) |
| Rangitīkei | McKELVIE, Ian (NAT) |
| Rotorua | McCLAY, Todd (NAT) |
| Selwyn | GRIGG, Nicola (NAT) |
| Southland | MOONEY, Joseph (NAT) |
| Tāmaki | O’CONNOR, Simon (NAT) |
| Taranaki-King Country | KURIGER, Barbara (NAT) |
| Taupō | UPSTON, Louise (NAT) |
| Tauranga | BRIDGES, Simon (NAT) |
| Waikato | VAN DE MOLEN, Tim (NAT) |
| Waimakariri | DOOCEY, Matt (NAT) |
| Waitaki | DEAN, Jacqui (NAT) |
| Whangaparāoa | MITCHELL, Mark (NAT) |
| Whangārei | RETI, Shane (NAT) |
(Note for those skimming: this includes Chlöe Swarbrick winning Auckland Central for the Greens, Rawiri Waititi winning Wairariki for the Māori Party, and electorate-only candidates Greg O’Connor winning Ōhāriu, Anna Lorck winning Tukituki, and Tangi Utikere winning Palmerston North.)
List winners for National:
| No. | Name | Status |
| 2 | Gerry Brownlee | List MP, lost Ilam |
| 3 | Paul Goldsmith | Lost Epsom |
| 7 | Chris Bishop | Lost Hutt South |
| 11 | David Bennett | Lost Hamilton East |
| 12 | Michael Woodhouse | Lost Dunedin |
| 13 | Nicola Willis | Lost Wellington Central |
| 16 | Melissa Lee | Lost Mt Albert |
| 18 | Nick Smith | Lost Nelson |
| 19 | Maureen Pugh | List MP |
Departing National Party incumbents:
| No. | Name | Status |
| 21 | Harete Hipango | Lost Whanganui |
| 22 | Johnathan Young | Lost New Plymouth |
| 23 | Tim Macindoe | Lost Hamilton West |
| 24 | Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi | Lost Panmure-Ōtāhuhu |
| 25 | Paulo Garcia | No list seat |
| 27 | Parmjeet Parmar | Lost Mt Roskill |
| 28 | Agnes Loheni | No list seat |
| 30 | Alfred Ngaro | Lost Te Atatū |
| 33 | Lawrence Yule | Lost Tukituki |
| 36 | Brett Hudson | Lost Ōhāriu |
| 43 | Dan Bidois | Lost Northcote |
| 44 | Jo Hayes | Lost Mana |
Elected from Labour List:
| No. | Name | Status |
| 7 | Andrew Little | List MP |
| 9 | David Parker | List MP |
| 11 | Trevor Mallard | List MP |
| 15 | Kris Faafoi | List MP |
| 17 | Ayesha Verrall | List MP |
| 19 | Willie Jackson | List MP |
| 27 | Louisa Wall | List MP – was not reselected for Manuwera |
| 30 | Camilla Belich | Lost Epsom |
| 31 | Priyanca Radhakrishnan | Lost Maungakiekie |
| 32 | Jan Tinetti | Lost Tauranga |
| 34 | Marja Lubeck | Lost Kaipara ki Mahurangi |
| 35 | Angie Warren-Clark | Lost Bay of Plenty |
| 36 | Willow-Jean Prime | Lost Northland |
| 37 | Tamati Coffey | Lost Waiariki |
| 38 | Naisi Chen | Lost Botany |
| 41 | Liz Craig | Lost Invercargill |
| 42 | Ibrahim Omer | List |
| 44 | Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki | List |
| 46 | Rachel Brooking | List |
| 48 | Helen White | Lost Auckland Central |
| 50 | Angela Roberts | Lost Taranaki-King Country |
For ACT:
| No. | Name |
| 1 | David Seymour (Wins Epsom) |
| 2 | Brooke van Velden |
| 3 | Nicole McKee |
| 4 | Chris Baillie |
| 5 | Simon Court |
| 6 | James McDowall |
| 7 | Karen Chhour |
| 8 | Mark Cameron |
| 9 | Toni Severin |
| 10 | Damien Smith |
For the Greens:
| No. | Name |
| 1 | Marama Davidson |
| 2 | James Shaw |
| 3 | Chlöe Swarbrick (Wins Auckland Central) |
| 4 | Julie Anne Genter |
| 5 | Jan Logie |
| 6 | Eugenie Sage |
| 7 | Golriz Ghahraman |
| 8 | Teanau Tuiono |
| 9 | Elizabeth Kerekere |
| 10 | Ricardo Menéndez March |
New Zealand First loses all their seats and does not return to Parliament, and is not within realistic range of doing so in the Special Vote.
Your new list MPs in the lists I’ve made have been bolded, and I’ve included the electorate MPs for ACT and the Greens so as to not have to delete them.
The specials are close enough that conceivably ACT, the Greens, or the Māori party are within range, JUST, of another MP each, but it’d be a very good performance if any of them do gain an extra. IF all three parties were to win extra seats from the specials, the last elected MPs would be replaced, which are:
120th – Angela Roberts (Labour)
119th – Maureen Pugh (National)
118th – Helen White (Labour)
The specials could return:
ACT: 11 – Miles McConway
Greens: 11 – Steve Abel
Māori Party: 1 – Debora Ngarewa-Packer
However, I will say that saying it’s possible for any of those three to win an extra MP was something I looked at if each party were to do so without other parties also gaining significantly in the specials, so most likely only Angela Roberts and maybe Maureen Pugh should be being cautious. It’s also possible that Ricordo Menéndez March, as the 116th elected MP on the provisional results, could lose his seat if the Greens perform very poorly on the specials, but we’ll hope it’s not that close.
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