Written By:
notices and features - Date published:
6:00 am, January 10th, 2013 - 104 comments
Categories: open mike -
Tags:
https://player.vimeo.com/api/player.jsHer poem If Katherine Mansfield Were My ...
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
Morrissey: “I Shall Return”
[deleted]
As the French would say, quelle hypocrisie. Certainly, I am not without fault, but surely we should all be worried that someone as crude and vicious as QOT is able to set herself up as some kind of moral arbiter.
This message has been solicited and published by me as an act of support for my colleague and friend Morrissey.
[lprent: Oh piss off. The policy is clear on self-martyrdom offences
Morrissey was acting like a complete arsehole. But he isn’t the only one who can do that.
Oh and see that other nice self-martyrdom offence….
Since you’re such a friend then please explain to him that you just got a two month ban and collected him another another month. I’m uninterested in people acting like complete fuckwits and wasting my time.
Besides, after he e-mailed with some pathetic idea about what constitutes “defamation”, I had another look at the first comment he left for QoT on her post. Seeing it again just got me even more irritated with the pretentious dildo. ]
@lprent: Oh my sweet *headdesk*.
As an aside: I’m just puzzled by the date on the above comment.
Ah it might be a warning to ALL, could have sworn when i looked this morning that the first 3 comments were from ‘Jenny’,
Course if your in the ‘chair’ you probably get to move things about…
They sort on date/time.
Our Mozza was always a bit behind…
Yeah odd. There have been some other database oddities…
Maybe you could make it up to me by giving me a guest post.
🙂 I have been slack processing the e-mails. Been pretty busy looking at the server speeds and that dratted paid employment keeps interfering.
I will set aside some time either in the morning on on the weekend.
Ta for that Lynn. No pressure. I openly admit that some of my output might be no better than drafts. As always off the record critiques are appreciated.
The climate change refugees. Are on their way.
Ask yourself.
40 degree heat what’s that like?
50 degree heat what’s that like?
Uncomfortable?
Unbearable?
What’s it like for parents with small children?
What’s it like for the elderly, the infirm, for those too poor to afford air conditioning?
What’s it like for those who have to work in it?
Sickening, dangerous, life threatening?
Though we only produce 0.2% of the world’s CO2 emissions, New Zealand has a chance to make a major contribution to stopping global climate change.
Sir Peter Gluckman the science adviser to the Prime Minister’s office has said that New Zealand’s greatest contribution to stopping climate change would be to set an example for the rest of the world to follow.
Australia is the world’s biggest exporter of coal, and as such is one of the biggest contributors to global warming.
It is very clear what example New Zealand should set.
I call on the Green Party to immediately, and without delay, put a private member’s bill in the ballot, calling for a total ban on all coal exports.
Will they do it? Will they heck! They might embarrass their Labour Party colleagues.
But that is the point.
If enough Labour MPs are sickened by what’s happening in Australia, and also sickened with voting alongside ACT and National to keep up this dirty and dangerous trade. Then they may be vulnerable to being lobbied to defy their party whips to vote for such a bill.
Would this be significant?
Yes. Because if they vote for it in opposition, they are then honour bound to vote for it in government.
Famously. It was this sort of private members bill, put up by the opposition Labour Party that helped make New Zealand Nuclear Free.
If India and China cannot buy coal from Australia they will simply go elsewhere. They may have to pay a slightly higher price for coal but will get their own pricing structure in time.
And the Australian dream will falter faster than it is now.
But at least there will be an Australia.
‘
If New Zealand, in a world first, banned all export (and import) trade in coal what global political effect would this have?
Colonial Viper has asked me how could this make Australia give up coal exports as well.
I have thought long and hard on this. Personally I agree with Professor Gluckman in thinking a positive example should be enough. But if it is not, then the carrot should also be accompanied with the stick.
I would call on the Green Party to put up another private members bill. One that will start a firestorm of public debate, here and across the Tasman. Giving the issue of climate change the publicity and attention it needs.
This bill will be the threat and the stick to accompany the carrot.
No climate refugees will be accepted from Australia until they also give up coal exports.
I call on the Green Party to immediately, and without delay, put a further private members bill in the ballot. This bill calling for parliament to rescind Australian citizens free right of entry into New Zealand.
Too harsh?
What do you think
I’ll jump in jenny firstly by saying that you are doing well highlighting the disaster here with the effects of climate change being felt now.
This country since it was colonised has always accepted others from other countries for all sorts of reasons – some goodreasons, most bad and a few ugly. I’d probably put denying climate refugees entry here into the bad reason area simply because it is so unfair on those trying to protect their families and themselves. Maybe if individuals from companies, corporations and government both local and national that contributed to, or activelly worked against mitigating the disaster, were identifed and denied entry I’d be happier. Oh dear can’t see many getting through that net. might have to chuck a few back from here too 🙂
the climate refugee area must be debated and IMO huddling down with outwardly pointing pointed sticks is not the answer
I take your point marty, And I am quite happy to welcome climate change refugees from anywhere in the world. But why should the citizens of one of the countries most responsible for climate change have preferential treatment over all other immigrants? Free to come and go as they please, to work, or as visit as long as they like?
No other immigrant group has these rights!
I have suggested this course of action to goad Australian citizens to take action against climate change, (specifically against coal exports).
I am of the opinion that being aware that their escape hatch is being closed off and that they might have to endure the same sort of humiliation and detention that they mete out so readily to refugees themselves, might sharpen their minds to the problem.
How are CC refugees defined? I have no problem taking in Pacific Islanders who’s land has been swamped. Well off Australians shifting here once they’ve bled their own land dry while living off the carbon gravy train, not so much. We already have wealthy immigrants and people buying land from overseas because they see the future and figure NZ is one of the better places to be in when the shit hits the fan. How many are we going to take in though?
Most of us are culpable for CC.
I agree Marty, the debate needs to happen.
Weka, only by us taking action will that debate happen. It is called leadership. We don’t need to define climate refugees. We just need to take away Australian’s special privileges to come here and to say why.
“We just need to take away Australian’s special privileges to come here and to say why.”
And why would that be, Jenny? Especially since Australia allows freedom of movement for New Zealanders and that suits us just fine at the moment. There is a time for returning the favour. Especially since many thousands of of climate change refugees are going to have rights of citizenship in New Zealand.
There also is a time for returning the favour for recklessly destroying the biosphere for short term profits.
Australians may be less willing to continue down this path knowing they may have to live and die with the results of their actions, with no chance of an easy escape to a cooler country.
The sooner Australians stop the dirty coal export trade, the sooner their special immigration privileges may be returned.
“Australians may be less willing to continue down this path”
More like more willing to start a war (at least at the diplomatic level, at first).
If New Zealand opted out of buying all those Chinese goods made with energy from Australia’s coal, you might have a point about isolating ourselves. But we buy those goods and sell China product from our flatulent cows. We totally buy into the system that produces them so as a fully incorporated, paid up member of the climate change club we have no right to dictate terms over the fall-out, only to negotiate them.
I don’t see how New Zealand has a moral right to close of the legal right Australians have to live here, assuming the Aussie’s would want to. A little bit of arrogance creeping into your argument with the assumption that they would. Canada probably looks quite inviting from where they stand.
And all that is aside from the ethical and moral duty to help your neighbour when in need.
NZ might need to be gutsy and say, you can’t come over unless you have a confirmed job, or you have family here, or meet various strategic criteria.
We do what works for the people already here, which includes helping others, but we make sure that any sacrifices and compromises are very well signalled.
Yes, we do need to be gutsy.
Sacrifices, compromise and sharing are the only way through this. Not some power-crazed fantasy of punishing people by leaving them to figuratively stew. I’m not sure there are any political or historical precedents that prove such punishment is a long-term solution to resource allocation (in this instance water and climate), especially when the people you’re punishing are socially and culturally so close but much more powerful.
So if not because it’s the right thing to do, negotiate, compromise and share to avoid being taken over by the bigger, more powerful neighbour because it’s in our self(ish)-interests.
You’ve got it. We last through this by tapping into those things which have worked for millenia.
🙂 Exactly
Using an advertising spoof unrelated to climate change to evoke the fantasy of a brutal military takeover and invasion of this country through use of overwhelming powerful Australian military might in response to New Zealand legislators tinkering with our immigration laws, weird.
rosie, don’t you think tapping into fear of the sort of last measure, desperate responses that climate change will engender in governments and states as a counter to my suggestion a little bit over the top?
Can’t you think up something better than this to justify your arguement for doing nothing?
Though I admit that the crisis is upon us now. I think we still have a long way to go, before Australian military strikes will greet any symbolic New Zealand legislation against climate refugees.
If and when, Australia becomes largely uninhabitable due to climate change, no amount of legislation will stop the wave of desperate refugees heading for these shores.
I am only suggesting this move as a wake up call to start the necessary (figurative) firestorm of nationwide and trans-Tasman debate that will create the political environment which will allow the implemenatation of the solutions needed, that (hopefully) will avert the need for militaristic solutions.
All I can say about your contribution to this debate, rosie, is at least you think that climate change is such a serious problem that at some time in the future it will engender brutal military conflicts. You may have grounds for thinking this. But I don’t think we are there yet. I want us to make sure that we never get there. I would hope rosy that you would join me and others in this effort.
Jenny, I was simply taking your notion of using our legislative power to exclude to the next logical step for powerful refugees banging at New Zealand’s door. I’m sorry that you didn’t find a little humour illustrated this point. My mistake.
I thoroughly dislike your notion of denying Australian’s entry to NZ given our close ties and our own complicity in climate change and I see it as completely unfeasible because it’s a). morally wrong and b). they’re bigger than us 😉 (not just militarily, but also financially and diplomatically).
I’m sorry, but I have no wish to join any ‘solution’ that advocates people be excluded because of where they come from. We have truckloads of reasons to deny entry already without adding another completely discriminatory one to the list.
rosy, maybe you are right, compunction may not be the way to go. It was not my first choice anyway.
I was responding to critics and naysayers like Colonial Viper and weka who pooh, pooh any suggestion that New Zealand should set an example, or that it we did, it wouldn’t have any effect.
These two are both long standing apologists for BAU and I have butted heads with them many times over many threads.
I disagree strongly with their expressed opinions that we should do nothing, (or that nothing can be done).
In my considered opinion, if New Zealand did give a positive example of what could be done. Other countries, Australia in particular, would be put under considerable popular pressure to follow suit. (If Australia did this, then other countries would be under pressure to follow as well.)
There is some evidence coming out of Australia that may make this viewpoint more plausible to my critics.
“An uncomfortable time for Australians, especially climate-change sceptics”
I might mention here that the weakening of the monsoon, one of the factors that caused the build up of heat in central Australia, which created the heatwave, is one of the weather effects predicted by computer modeling of climate change. Climate change modeling predicts that if CO2 forcing continues, at some point the seasonal monsoon will in future years occasionally not make an appearance at all. This would be devastating for Australia, allowing tropical heatwaves to build up to unprecedented levels before sweeping south. This is what has happened in this case, with only just a “weakening of the monsoon“.
Apart from Australia, a complete failure of the monsoon would be devastating for the many south east Asian countries in the tropical regions which depend on the monsoon to sustain their agriculture. Resulting in drought and famine. If this failure was repeated over more than one growing season, we could be witness to one of the biggest famine disasters in human history. And which could see Australia becoming mostly uninhabitable.
I’m not an advocate of BAU, Jenny. I’m just noting that a righteous dictatorial approach will not work in our democracy.
Also, you fail to appreciate that politicians can only do what the electorate will allow them to do.
Jenny, you have a shocking tendency to talk down to people who challenge your positions and the realism of your strategies, instead of answering the serious concerns raised.
While you might get some window dressing, no government in the world is going to force upon their people steep cuts in energy use and consumer society activities until they are absolutely forced to.
Jenny, it could happen quite quickly and smoothly eg. with political co-operation on both sides of the Tasman.
You need to look over what has happened previously during major famines and disasters in history. Resource wars, mass migrations and political/societal instability. Blurring of sovereignty.
One of my concerns with your approach Jenny is that you do not seem to have learnt any lessons from history (both contemporary and ancient).
It is in the above grim scenario, that your so called “joke” about a military takeover becomes something more, something much more serious.
Watch your clip again, rosy. Especially the second part. And think about the huge military investment and financial and sheer human cost involved in maintaining these forces over many years. And know in your vitals that these resources will not be sitting idle under such conditions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RenRILqwhJs
Still laughing?
I thought you said a military takeover was a “fantasy” Jenny. Seems like you changed your tune fast. Good to see you getting a dose of realism.
The best humour (and advertising) always contains an essential truth, Jenny and what you were advocating when I posted that comment would lead to the use of state power, from a much more powerful state, against us.
CV @9:54 + 10:04 that’s about the sum of it. Thanks.
“We don’t need to define climate refugees.”
So Jenny, you think that rich people who want to live here because it’s getting too hot at home should be called refugees and treated as refugees alongside poor people who’ve lost their homes to rising sealevels created by the developed world? Where are we going to fit them all? And do you think by chance that the rich people will get preference over the poor people?
What on earth are you talking about weka?
I thought I made myself pretty clear.
New Zealand is responsible for only 0.2% of green house gasses. Even if New Zealand magically cut our emissions to zero it would have negligible quantitive effect.
Our greatest contribution in the fight against climate change will be symbolic.
This is the considered opinion of New Zealand’s top science advisor to the government.
The single most contributing factor to climate change identified by James Hansen is coal. According to Hansen, if we cannot stop coal then we are doomed to a global temperature increase in excess of 6 degrees .
I would go even further and suggest that if we cannot even contemplate stopping this one easily stopped causative factor of climate change, then there is no chance of moving past this to other lesser causative factors.
Banning all coal exports and imports is the one concrete and achievable symbolic action that New Zealand can do, that would threaten an axe to one of the root causes of climate change.
If New Zealand put a ban on all coal exports and imports this would be a clarion call to all other countries, especially our greatest friend and nearest neighbor, Australia, to do the same.
If the contemplation of this positive example is not thought to be enough, then I suggested this should be followed up by a private members bill calling for the removal of all special immigration status this country gives to Australian citizens.
Here’s a new tactic by coalming protesters in Australia, and endorsed by several Green MPs.
Do you think this is a good idea for NZ as well?
“On Monday, anti-coal activist Jonathan Moylan issued a media release purportedly from the ANZ Bank withdrawing a $1.2 billion loan to Whitehaven Coal, which is developing a project in Maules Creek in the Gunnedah Basin.
The hoax wiped $314 million from the value of Whitehaven Coal before the company and ANZ confirmed the hoax, although the share prices recovered after the ruse was revealed.”
http://www.leadingcompany.com.au/strategy/anz-hoax-marks-new-age-of-climate-tactics/201301093398
Thanks for this jayman.
In answer to your question: Do I think this is a good idea for NZ as well? In my opinion, actions like this though amusing, not really that useful.
Personally I don’t think much of this sort of individualist guerilla action. Coal will only be stopped by a mass democratic movement that shifts the whole political spectrum to the left. Similar to that that stopped nuclear ships or racist sports teams visiting New Zealand.
Of course you are aware that my job entails burning coal, so if there’s no coal I lose my job!
I have just the job for you. That will make full use of your special talents.
This goes for all other coal miners.
PS. How do you get your rebreather over that beard?
Green parties seem to have a habit of letting some idiot in a few minutes undo years of work by GP staffers..
Jonathon Moylan is a brave person.
“Although highly creative, the Whitehaven deception is not the first such action. In 2008, US environmental activist Tim DeChristopher attended an auction of oil and gas mining leases in Utah and outbid everyone else. When he could not pay the $1.8 million he was arrested and charged with defrauding the federal government. In July 2011 he was sentenced to two years in jail.
The Utah land auction was eventually abandoned by the Interior Department and a federal judge ruled that the administration of the sale was improper. DeChristopher’s action had the desired effect.”
“Recognising this new reality, perhaps Jonathan Moylan and Tim DeChristopher are pioneering a new phase of climate campaigning aimed at making it more difficult for coal and oil companies to do business. What might be dubbed “virtuous malfeasance” — hostile actions motivated by the public good aimed at damaging a company’s interests — may be a new form of civil disobedience practiced by a market-savvy generation of young activists.
Often those who engage in civil disobedience are otherwise the most law-abiding citizens. They are those who have most regard for the social interest and the keenest understanding of the democratic process, including its failures.”
Makes sense to me. While I agree that we also need mass action within the general population, it’s hard to argue against individuals willing to put their freedom on the line for such an urgent problem. Puts the rest of us to shame really, including you Jenny, who is unwilling to give up your western comfy lifestyle to mitigate CC, but who castigates the GP for making pragmatic choices that have real effect in the world.
Dodgy individualist actions are no alternative to building an open mass democratic political movement against climate change. Such individualist actions are easily countered, and are easily shrugged off by the fossil fuel industry backed by the state. The only final result from these individual actions will be more and harsher counter measures. The sort of measures we saw Solid Energy deploy against Happy Valley protestors.
There are no short cuts. But it requires leadership. Unfortunately it is this necessary political leadership that is missing.
Because of this missing leadership, no doubt we will get to see more of these brave individual type stunts which are often carried out at great personal cost, but which will all prove to be ultimately futile.
Also handing the struggle against climate change over to a few “brave individuals” lets the Green Party and other political parties and movements off the hook.
It is just another tired excuse by them for doing nothing themselves.
Nice idea Jenny, can you balance the books.
Value of coal to nZ, effects of the ban, employment replacement?
Provide a neutral solution and you might get traction.
From one climate change acceptor to another.
I think that Jenny’s suggestions are totally and completely unworkable, from a political and democratic perspective. In a previous comment she’s already said that thousands of coal mining related jobs need to be destroyed by lunch time. If the Greens do as she dictates, it’ll simply make martyrs of the Green Party at the polls.
Once they have exited Parliament, where too next?
Basically a 3-4 deg C temperature rise is already baked into the cake as far as I can see.
To get any real traction, you’d have to get a mass semi-spiritual style movement of people committing to living simpler less energy intensive lives, and opting out of the mainstream economy. Up to quarter of a million NZers to have any real impact.
Who here thinks that is going to happen any time soon? Jenny?
CV I can rely on you to continually come up with new excuses to do nothing about climate change.
What mineral being mined in Australia pays the workers to mine it, more than mining gold or opals or iron ore?
What is black, is more poisonous than yellow cake, and more dangerous than asbestos?
What gives off deadly suffocating and explosive fumes that when ignited collapse mines, and globally kills mine workers by the thousands?
What mineral gives off thick dust that when inhaled on a regular basis leads to silicosis of the lungs and emphysema, and is commonly known as miners lung?
What industry founded in 17th century should have been left in the 19th?
What fuel burned in London for heating houses first gave rise to the term smog?
What fuel when burned releases sulfur into the atmosphere that combines with water to become acid rain that sterilises mountain lakes and kills forests hundreds of miles away.
What singular mineral that if continued to be mined at the current rate will almost certainly guarantee runaway global climate change?
CV you may picture yourself as some kind of an advocate of the mine workers. In fact you are nothing but a dirty tool of the venal profit driven fossil fuel bosses. If you really had the interest of the workers at heart you would be fighting to get our coal miners the best possible exit packages and training to enable them to leave this sunset industry as soon as possible. Instead through your cowardice and apologist treachery you are ensuring, that when this industry finally collapses, which it will. Those workers it leaves behind, like the rest of us, will be suffering with a degraded environment that will be a living hell.
Workers have names for people like you.
Nothings going to happen to change course politically until the world is actually being crippled by full blown climate crisis. Am I happy about this? No. But the Titanic has too much damn mass, and it’s going too damn fast, and the iceberg is far too close.
*Shrug* I’m not here because I want to be liked.
CV your analogy using the Titanic already on an unavoidable collision course with the iceberg, may be quite accurate as a description or the dilemma our world is in.
This still doesn’t excuse doing nothing.
Unlike the passengers on the Titanic we know what is happening to us.
To use another Titanic analogy your continual excuses for BAU is as irresponsible as organising for a game of soccer on the foredeck with the blocks of fallen ice.
To use another more famous and time worn Titanic analogy, The Green Party prioritising of social change over climate change will in the long run amount to no more than rearranging the deck chairs.
The Green Party need to heed the prophetic words of Naomi Kleine;
But its not going to happen that way Jenny. People do not generally band together and fight hard for immediate reductions in their lifestyles, convenience and consumption.
Do you see how unrealistic your approach is?
You obviously haven’t got a clue about history CV.
This is exactly what people had to do to win the war against fascism.
Do you see how ignorant your approach is?
We’re not soldiers in your imaginary war, Jenny.
We’re not your soldiers in your imaginary war, Jenny.
I’m sorry Geoff but CCA stands for climate change apologist in my book.
Climate change is an existential threat on par with and even greater unfortunately, than a fascist takeover of the world.
Did people worry about the cost to jobs, when fascism threatened the world? Did they worry about the expense of waging world war, or balancing the books?
Is the world a better place for nations and governments ignoring those lessor concerns?
‘
We are well past the time of niceties
Links that haven’t made it to The Standard link roster yet, but that just might embarrass the Labour and Green MPs into taking immediate parliamentary action.*
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/get-used-to-recordbreaking-heat-bureau-20130108-2cet5.html
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2013/01/08
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2013/jan/08/australia-bush-fires-heatwave-temperature-scale?CMP=twt_fd
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2013/01/08-7
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2013/01/08-5
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/katrina-vanden-heuvel-a-climate-change-apocalypse/2013/01/07/f440d704-58e4-11e2-9fa9-5fbdc9530eb9_story.html
* (But whose only affect so far, is to deprive me of sleep at night.)
The Australian bushfires current are of a disasterous proportion unprecented in “know” history – but that is only just over 200 years in a country which has lived by fire for hundreds of millions of years.
Is man to blame or is it just Australia ?
Similarly New Zealand is built on New Fold Volcanic structures which have produced volcanoes and with that earthquakes for hundreds of millions of years.
ps – my sisters house got wiped of the earth yestrday in NSW.
very sorry to hear that; prayer regrettably, I read this morning, will only change the person engaging in it. We had a front-page photo locally of the family sheltering under a pier in the sea in Tasmania , in prayer, must have been terrifying for the children.(Over the forty years that I have experienced HB weather, the frequencies of extremes, wind, rain, temp, do appear to have increased, yet that’s only my memory. Sure is hot today though.
Actually they aint, the most disastrous bushfires in ‘known’ history that is, There were fires in Tasmania in the 1960’s which killed 60 odd people, burnt a greater area, (including parts of the State Capital),
I flew by a bit of info on the Northern Territory fires the other day while looking at info on the fires in NSW and Tassy and from memory in the North fires burn across 1/3rd or 1/2 the land mass of the Territory every year,
Will see if i can dig out the link…
Here it be, the page title= Australia savanna fire regimes:context, scales patchiness,
fireecology.org/docs/journal/pdf/volume03/issue01/048.pdf
The land mass burned in the Northern territory EVERY YEAR is 21% of the Territory’s total land mass,
The page is a pdf. but it’s got a quick view’
Edit,damn made a mess of the link,(as usual), second attempt=
fireecology.org/docs/journal/pdf/volume03/048.pdf
Ask her this for me the next time you talk to her Fortran. “Are you thinking of immigrating to New Zealand?”
http://www.pundit.co.nz/content/why-a-labour-reshuffle-just-aint-enough
“The irony is that the only way to get the attention of the voters you need to win over and earn their respect is to actually stand. for. something.”
Tim Watkins, 7th October 2012 in The Pundit.
“So, David Shearer’s planning a reshuffle of his front bench and folk such as John Tamihere and, well, just about everyone, reckons it’s about time. The carping has started, so the Labour leader had better get on with it. But what he needs to realise is a reshuffle is only the beginning. In many ways it’s the smallest part of the job.”
The membership wants a full reform of the party, not only the re-shuffle/retirement gig in the Caucus.
What are the changes we want?
The full implementation of the resolutions from the conference in word and in spirit: that is a membership connected with all sections of the community empowered to forge policies and leadership that will bring health and prosperity to all Kiwis.
Over the next few weeks we have too see evidence that changes are taking place that will implement this reform.
What we do not want to see is a re-shuffle that entrenches power in the few that are fighting the reform.
The membership should be permitted by caucus to confirm the Leader. It would energise the party, bring onboard new blood and new members, and fire up the on-the-ground activisits going into the 2014 campaign. It is a full on win scenario for Labour.
Do you mean the membership should be permitted by caucus to confirm Shearer as leader? Or something else?
Yes, caucus IMO should pull the consitutional caucus trigger in Feb. Thereby allowing the wider membership to vote and confirm the leadership of the Labour Party. There are huge campaigning, momentum and growth advantages available to the party if it chooses that democratic road. IMO.
The other perspective is the one we have heard consistently from TRP – there’s nothing left to talk about, everyone please move on. That path IMO would leave Labour with a very half hearted activist base going into the 2014 campaign.
How does that work with the new rules?
Can caucus just decide to have a membership vote without caucus voting on the current leader? Or does it require caucus to vote against the current leader, thereby triggering the membership vote?
If/when the membership vote gets triggered, how are the candidates for leadership selected?
This post explains a few of the points…some of the questions you are asking are matters of perspective and intent, however. Remember, the ABCs took Cunliffe breathing at Conference as evidence of an imminent coup.
My view is that both Shearer’s leadership position and Labour’s on-the-ground momentum would be greatly strengthened going into 2014 with a full membership confirmation.
http://thestandard.org.nz/labour-conference-day-2/
Re-reading that link from last year, my understanding is still that giving the membership the chance to vote requires 40% +1 of caucus to actively vote against Shearer next month (and this is a once in a three year opportunity).
Where does it say it is possible for caucus to bypass that and just go straight to a membership vote? You are suggesting that caucus “pull the constitutional caucus trigger” in Feb, but how can they do that without essentially having a vote of no confidence in Shearer? It’s a nice idea that caucus should give the vote to the membership at this stage, I just don’t yet see how that can actually be done. Some specifics would be nice.
I think you got that right. The caucus vote would have to be technically “against Shearer” in order to enable a membership vote “for Shearer”. It won’t be hard for the MPs to realise that this pathway provides an opportunity to strengthen Shearer’s position, Labour’s democratic credentials, and the party’s momentum going into 2014.
I fear Shearer’s methods of “punishment and reward” will yet again win the day.
What happens if more than 50% vote no confidence? Is it a caucus vote for replacement or straight to membership for the replacement?
What I’m thinking is if shearer publicly asks for a no confidence vote so it can be taken to the membership, that would be a cool way of bypassing the entire “ooo shearer’s in the shit/ party crisis” yellow journalism from certain TV news politics editors.
If the caucus trigger were pulled, it would then allow a 40/40/30 caucus + members + affiliates postal vote to confirm Shearer as Leader.
So all future elections of new leaders are under the new rules? Cool.
Yep. The issue re: Feb is simply one of whether caucus will let the members have a say to confirm the leadership, or whether they will choose not to give members that chance.
“If the caucus trigger were pulled, it would then allow a 40/40/30 caucus + members + affiliates postal vote to confirm Shearer as Leader.”
Or to replace him. Still don’t know how the rest of that process works.
In that respect you are in the same boat as everyone else. This has never been done before you see.
The caucus vote would have to be technically “against Shearer” in order to enable a membership vote “for Shearer”.
Just want to add – though I haven’t seen anyone cite the “but if they support Shearer how could they vote against him” – that the reasoning is a lot similar to (what I understand was) Chris Finlayson’s vote against marriage equality – it’s not that he doesn’t support treating same-sex couples equally, but he opposes State intervention in marriage at all. So a seemingly-illogical vote can be very easily justified.
Doesn’t it just require 40/1% of the caucus to vote against Shearer to trigger a full leadership contest?
Just 40%
Indeed, but hypothetically >60% of the Labour caucus could absolutely sincerely support him as leader, meaning the choice to send the decision to the membership would involve voting “against” their actual inclination.
Which is why I’m not sure that CV’s idea would work – asking for caucus to voluntarily give the membership the vote. It requires MPs to vote against their support of Shearer.
CW
Not if he asks them to turn the vote to the membership and affiliates. What they’d be voting for is that affiliates and membership should have a say as to who should be leader.
Not being a Labour party member I have no way of finding out, but I’m still not convinced that what you say is possible McFlock (Shearer instructing the MPs to vote against him in order to hand the vote to the members). Doesn’t it depend on what got written in the rule changes? Is it really ok for the leader to make it up as he goes along at this point? If I were a Labour party member, I would be wanting to know exactly what the processes were (not least because I don’t expect the ABCs to play fair). Just saying.
Bill’s idea about abstaining is interesting, but again, were I a member, I would want to know the processes and implications AHEAD of time (esp if I were lobbying my local MP).
Shearer needs the endorsement of 60% of caucus. There is no need to vote against him. Abstention would do.
Child In Time
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6869.The_Child_in_Time
RNZ- asbestos ceilings in CHCH being ripped out shit and busted breathing to flow on
Shattered Glass
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Lacan#Mirror_stage
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/From_Bakunin_to_Lacan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-left_anarchy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-Marxism
bbrrrrrrrrrrr All Shook Up (Elvis is still in the building)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n3ebuL1cPA
-Od onata Anisoptera (whose round, and whose paying?)
Back to the pelvic thrust…
Best Practice:
Restless Leg Syndrome 🙂
oops,From the Mountain (not under it)
http://www.nzonscreen.com/title/mt-zion-2013
this HAARP does play tunes (sample of one)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAARP (the caravan may act as an aerial) , fine, I’m between homes anyway, any way interesting construction, can you Send Me An Angel next time? Shall I tell you I had a dream?…na don’t wanna bore you with the details, suffice to say it was counter-motivational.
Feedback- “Well I stand up next to a mountain, and I chop it down with the edge of my hand…
Well I pick up all the pieces and make an Island, might even raise a little sand 🙂
We’re all gonna die so lets get High? I prefer Raw Power or Well my Baby she wrote me a letter, aint got no time to take a fast train (I’d make a good spook 😉 )
-Iggy ( http://www.footsteps.co.nz/ footsteps in the sand)
back to Fear and Trembling,
(and there were some interesting symbols, flange, inert gas, gearboxes, escort, hard to understand scottish accents off exercising for lunch, thinking for other people…)
anyway,
Restless Leg Syndrome, oh look, it’s all there in lovely Living Color.
http://www.bpac.org.nz/magazine/2012/december/restlesslegs.asp
Oh well, better check out the Real News.
Some “entitlements”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entitlement
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entitlement_%28fair_division%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entitlement_theory
oh well, off for a sausage now (hard habit to break)
oops, some Brewers Yeast
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority
-The Illusionist ( http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0443543/)
The National party is just a corrupt subsidiary of Australian owned banks, their party supporters must be high on residual Pinochet fumes.
when we read the compilations put together by posters and comment providers on The Standard the “facts” of the matter are more than Beyond Belief, Objective lie speaking.
Dom
-60% of those folk surveyed did not exercise 30min / 5X week, up from 50% surveyed in 07-08 –
SpNZ
Reason? TIME-the winner, with “expense” and “convenience” close runner ups (gotta work on being less judgy / more on “perceptive” according to my “minders” ) soooo just the facts. TIME.
-the Ed Ministry employs and pays consultants to do their basic homework; speech writing and OIA assignments
-Corrections the naughtiest in school when it come to watching porn at work (cha know? a guy was openly staring as close to the screen at it here where I “work” earlier, noz Right up to the screen; I was more laid back when caught in that particular fly-trap)
-An anti-China moralizing editorial; and we know which broadsheets serve the function of propaganda officers here in the land of the long opaque cloud… apples and mandarins.
-Anti-Muslim advertisements paid to be placed on NY subway walls are the Graffiti Crimes allowed by “free speech” in the west.
-fortunately they published a letter by a Dr Anne Jenkins that identifies how they stir the racist pot; there is some foolish regular writer in the local paper who thinks it’s appropriate to lampoon “Engrish” or, alternatively ‘Chinglish”; it’s an uphill battle when students must look up to people like this.
Eden in The East?
http://books.google.co.nz/books/about/Eden_in_the_East.html?id=C01yQgAACAAJ&redir_esc=y
Reefer Madness is in the air again.
oh those British; the “Met Office” downplays planet warming (peas not mushy enough yet) ’til 2017 with an “experimental” computer model, one of ten internationally yet acknowledges warming trend has not gone away (who writes these twisty-turny articles?)
Living Dolls http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2010/jan/31/living-dolls-natasha-walter
raising girls that are now a soft target for big business propaganda with concomitant mental health issue increases (why, thank so much Hollywood for the mammary )
How about some New York Dolls.W O W
While locally they rabbit on about sarin loaded into bombs
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/article7151349.ece
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=298991
http://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-rejects-israeli-offer-to-allow-refugees-from-syria-to-enter-west-bank-and-gaza/
p c plus http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/1/10/business/20130110122238&sec=business
asian markets advance
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/asian-markets-advance-as-china-trade-data-beats-forecast/articleshow/17963975.cms
NZ / US $ was 83.80 when I last checked
I want money…thats what I want…the best things in life are free? lets just keep killing the birds and bees…in fact I want so much money…thats what I want-The Flying Lizards
Chris Trotter has posted again about Shearer at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.co.nz/2013/01/behind-mask-whos-backing-david-shearer.html
Asks some interesting questions:
1. What did Shearer think of Roger Douglas and the 4th Labour Government?
2. Will he advocate a neoliberal approach to NZ’s economic problems just as he advocated a neoliberal approach to building up peace keeping forces in the 1990s.
3. Says “The next genuine policy aggressor will be a politician possessing both the courage and the imagination to go beyond the maintenance of a discredited orthodoxy – someone willing to forge a new political, economic and social consensus” and obviously does not think this will be Shearer.
4. Says that the right believe that Shearer “will not only leave the neoliberal settlement intact, but that he may also, with Esko Aho’s example set firmly before him, seek to extend it into the spheres of welfare, health, housing and education. It will not have escaped their attention that Labour’s “Affordable Housing Plan” is really just a glorified PPP on behalf of the professional middle-class.”
5. Says that “the prognosis for those who entered Parliament with honest left-wing intentions is grim. Promotion to Cabinet will depend not only on making ritual obeisance to Shearer and his clique, but also, following the tragic precedent of the Rogernomics Era, on abandoning their former social-democratic ideals. Such self-inflicted injuries to the soul do not heal quickly.”
This makes grim, grim reading. I hope it is not true.
These are is very strong accusations against the leader of the Labour Party.
David Shearer must respond to the allegations. Trotter is a respected and published political historian.
Shearer should call a press conference and dismiss, refute or whatever each point.
Beat me to it SP. Was about to link to the post.
Oh dear… was starting to feel a little bit optimistic and now it’s gone. What to make of it? Trotter is a respected political historian – arguably the best we have.
I am sure Trotter would dearly love to be proven wrong, but he is right to put forward the hypothesis.
If someone appears as a virtual unknown, refuses to declare their position, and has predominantly right wing active supporters, then they must expect people to hypothesise from whatever facts they are able to access. Trotter has given Shearer something to answer to. Whether he will take up the challenge or not remains to be seen.
As I have said before, I would like the party to be able to eject those that break ranks with its values, even if they keep their plans under their hat until they have become prime minister. It seems to me a far graver offence to hijack a party by betraying its values than to put silly notes in mail boxes. I am not saying that Shearer does intend to betray the party’s values, since I am in no position to know such a thing, but we would all rest much easier if we had the tools to discourage such behaviour. It would also give the MPs themselves the necessary backing to resist outside pressure.
Well quite. Given that the Labour party (and NZ) was massively betrayed in the 80s, it stands to reason that transparency is a deal breaker. If Shearer (or any high ranking Labour MP or official) can’t respond to Trotter’s points openly and honestly, you’d have to wonder why.
Personally, I think SP’s synopsis of Trotter’s article is the clearest thing I’ve read on the whole Shearer issue. Come on Labour, stop wringing your hands and do what needs to be done. Are you really willing to trust that everything might be ok?
interesting article
Big ups to LP re: the PG B.S.!
“Here I sit broken hearted,
Spent a penny, only farted”.
Lynn Prent? Pete George? Bull Shit??
Yeah, PG got caught over-reaching again over at Yawn NZ. LP put him right.
I noticed that PG thought that Clare Curran chased me off this site. Not bloody likely, not really scared of that ditsy cougar. I have dealt with worse…
😯
😀
No problem. Was bored waiting for a slow serial routine to run so I could debug the unpack. So I scanned my feeder and saw that pile of tripe and wrote a comment. Was meaning to mention it to you… but the usual interruptions happened.
Later, when I was scanning the wordpress notifications (useful that – shows up in the dashboard if you’re logged in and displays replies on this site and other wordpress sites), that he’d replied at least 3 times. But the first paragraphs looked more apoletic than informational, I had work, so I ignored them.
There’s not really any point in my saying this. I know how it sounds, I know I have no authority to say it. But I have to say it straight just once:
Shearer is a nasty piece of work and a very dangerous man.
I’ve seen a bit of shit in my life. Known a few wolves who disguised themselves as saints. It can be a very successsful strategy.
I genuinely hope I’m wrong about him, but I’ve been watching and listening pretty closely for a while now. The more I know of him, the stronger the conviction