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6:00 am, May 15th, 2013 - 165 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about peopleâs relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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I asked the GCSB recently if I was one of the 88 kiwis that it may have illegally spied on.
My specific request stated:
“I note the GCSB is alleged to have illegally spied on 88 New Zealanders over the past few years. The allegation is contained in the Kitteridge report which somehow was recently leaked to the media.
I can’t imagine why but I wondered if I was one of the 88. So pursuant to the Official Information Act 1982 and/or the Privacy Act 1993 can you tell me if I am on that list and if so what information you obtained about me?”
I suggested on an open mike (http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-12042013/#comment-617654) that others may want to do the same.
I have now received my response and it is quite bizarre. They refused to confirm or deny if they had information about me. The section they are relying on says they don’t have to release information if disclosure would, amongst other things, be likely to prejudice the security or defence of New Zealand.
It is likely (unless I am indeed an enemy of the State) that this will be their stock response but I am wondering if anyone has had a different response? Is my slightly elevated sense of paranoia justified?
So Standardnistas, did anyone else ask for information about them and get a different response?
Well, now your slightly elevated sense of paranoia seems to be catching đ in the USA authorities attempt to record every single electronic communication. Who knows what the full capabilities of systems like Echelon really are. Its only a matter of time before they implement the same philosophy here. Meh.
For your decidedly left views. Micky you are definitely one of them. If you ever do get your file, it will no doubt reveal that the illegal invasion of your privacy by the DCSB, to be quite extensive. Extending to family members, your friends, your work colleagues.
After all, people like you, are a threat to the whole pyramid of money and power that sustains our well paid secret police snoops. And you must be watched very carefully.
But don’t worry, this extensive criminal offending will end soon. It will soon be legal. Just like it was in East Germany.
I was talking to Captain Blackadder because I was concerned about the same thing Mr Savage, my turnip and I might have raised the ire of the powers that be.
He told me not to worry as even though the intelligence services are a bit of an oxymoron they probably aren’t so retarded as to be spying on smelly primates.
I must admit that made me feel quite relieved.
[lprent: That last statement got me worried – what exactly did you relieve yourself on? đ ]
My fatigues, Captain Adder said at least it saves on the starch rations.
Thanks for this info, micky. A worrying response, reinforcing the lack of public accountability by the GCSB.
Ground control to the Labour top
Your leader is floating in a most peculiar way
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10883699
Nice to know someone’s listening đ
…Planet earth is blue and there’s nothing I can do…..
You beat me to it, I was just hauling over the link, The Alien.
A very clever caricature.
And you know it’s just going whoosh, as it comets right over their heads.
‘Your circuitâs dead, thereâs something wrong,
And the papers want to know who’s shirt you wear……
Never mind about policy, opinion, or your way forward just the shirt brand thanks.
At least, from the front, he’s kinda leaning (floating) left (I think). Perhaps. Maybe.
Or right…depending on your perspective…
Brilliant cartoon – and so true.
For those who have not seen Hadfield’s video from outer space of Bowie’s Space Oddity, it is a Must See. It was the only thing that brightened my day yesterday.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/video.cfm?c_id=2&gal_objectid=10883695&gallery_id=132791
Give the man another 6 months. He’s made of the right stuff.
thats quite something
Yep.
Give the man another 6 months. Heâs made of the right stuff.
Who’s got the job of rebuilding him with more of the left stuff?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=10883692
“The red carpet was out last night at the glittering X Factor VIP party at the SkyCity Grand Hotel. Dress to impress was the theme and salubrious guests didn’t disappoint”
“Hilary Barry (a not-so-secret fan of the show) rubbed shoulders with Sam Hayes, Ben Boyce, Colin Mathura-Jeffree and the cast from The Almighty Johnsons.
Stars from the company’s radio division were present too, including resident shock jocks Jono Pryor and Dom Harvey”
“Dominic Bowden – Matafeo ”
Yep, NZ’s got talent. The C list to beat them all.
Good work back slappers.
And Rachel Glucina calls them âcelebritiesâ. Obviously to her.\
Unbelievable
You’re throwing a massive party. You want it to be cool….
YOU WANT: Richie McCaw, Anna Paquin, David Farrier, Jacinda Ardern, Russell Crowe, John Key, Jim Mora, Mary Lambie, Jane Clifton, Vicky Hyde, Cameron Slater, Raybon Kan, Brian Edwards, Stan Walker, Sir Robert Jones, Lorraine Downes, the Masterchef judges, Kim Hill, Mark Cubey, Ruby Frost, Natasha Bedingfield, and the Aussie comedian who plays “Chopper”.
YOU’D SETTLE FOR: Peter Dunne, Aaron Gilmore, David Farrar, Tau Henare, Queen of Thorns, Lyn Prentice, The Mad Butcher, “millsy”, weka, Rosemary McLeod, Wendy Petrie, Martin Devlin, Daniel Bedingfield, Michele A’Court, the unsuccessful Masterchef contestants, Claudette Hauiti, Deb Webber, Kelvin Cruikshank, Rebecca Gibney, John Banks, Willie and J.T., Rachel Glucina, Karl du Fresne, Matt Nippert and Don “Brethren Cash” Brash.
YOU END UP WITH: Hilary Barry, Sam Hayes, David Parker, Ben Boyce, Colin Mathura-Jeffree, the Almighty Johnsons cast, Murray Deaker, David Slack, Christine “Spankin'” Rankin, Gary McCormick, Don Donovan, Barry Corbett, Jono Pryor, Dominic Bowden, Te Reo Putake, Morrissey Breen, Populuxe1, Colonial Viper, Irish Bill, Brett Dale, Felix and Draco T Bastard.
A. Lyn doesn’t want to get married and I suspect that taking my surname is going to be low on her list of priorities even if we did. She likes being named after a canine. So getting Lyn Prentice to anything will be difficult. There are none in the country that I am aware of.
B. You could be referring to me – Lynn Prentice. However getting me to any party or event would be a coup in it’s own right. I find invariably find them intensely boring. Lyn usually winds up going to the ones she attends with friends.
C. But it would be a meaningless result. I turn up at particular events where I want to get a read on something – once… Because there are no photos of me around the net, even those who know of me usually won’t know who I am.. This is intentional.
D. So trying to get me to go anywhere is fraught…
If you want to save the world, you get me, Sir Richard, Mike and Ricky.
Story of my life:
Sob
I join you, Clockie, cast out into the ‘exterior darkness where there is wailing and gnashing of teeth.’ We probably don’t even rate as a ‘stranger at the gate.’
Bugger the “in crowd”! I didn’t want to go to their stupid party anyway..
cry if you want to. Yeah, Nah!
Beautiful People?
Not! basket weaving
đ
No Contrarian?
Man, I am a hoot at parties. You don’t what your missing.
“I am a hoot at parties.” You do Matthew impersonations?
The C list to beat them all.
That was an F list.
more like a Z list.
Dude, I’m not even on the Z list, I’m on the z list đ
Burn the list! (said with vigour of thought, and warmth of affection, of course; wouldn’t want to break out in waves of passion now, would we). đ
Nothing more vivifying than multiple waves of passion, my friend!
see Aus Budget commentary below ground.
btw, My Immortal, Bring Me To Life.
http://whoar.co.nz/2013/ed-finallyat-last-the-mainstream-media-economics-experts-start-to-hold-the-intellectualyfactual-total-discrediting-of-jeyenglishs-austerity-mantra-up-to-the-light/
(reason for posting this link..this is an original comment on the key/english destroying news..
..news that seems to have passed most bye..(except @ whoar..)
..and i am gobsmacked that this news has been so ignored by most here in new zealand..
..given the key-govt-destabalising possibilities it holds..)
phillip ure..
LIARS OF OUR TIME
âšNo. 7: Nigel Morrison, Sky City CEO
MARY WILSON: How tough has the government been in these negotiations?
NIGEL MORRISON Quite frankly, they’ve been VERY tough.
Radio New Zealand National Checkpoint, Monday 13 May 2013, 5:40 p.m.
See also….
No. 6: NZ Herald PR dept: “Congratulationsâyouâre reading New Zealandâs best newspaper.”
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-13052013/#comment-632598
No. 5: Rawdon Christie: ââŠa FORMIDABLE replacement, it seems, is Claudette Hauiti.â
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-13052013/#comment-632594
No. 4: Willie and J.T.: âThe X-Factor. Nah, nah, thereâs some GREAT talent there!â
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-06052013/#comment-628803
No. 3: John Key: âYeah we hold MPs to a higher standard.â
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-06052013/#comment-628703
No. 2: Colin Craig: âOh, I have a GREAT sense of humour.â (TV3 News, 24 April 2013) http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-25042013/#comment-624381
No. 1: Barack Obama: âMargaret Thatcher was one of the great champions of freedom and liberty.ââš
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-19042013/#comment-621738
To news that the government is planning changes to state/social housing in the Budget comes the old movie saying – “I have a bad feeling about this”.
Extending income related rents to those in community housing is, in principle, an OK idea, but this government will chop something to pay for it (ie state housing, welfare, etc).
And this government has a hostility to public provision of anything, so I doubt that council tenants will be eligible for this.
Oh well, just over 24 hours to go.
See you all after the budget…
“Objectivity is paramount, says John Armstrong”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10883716
funniest thing I have read in ages,
will keep a smile on the dial as i head off to play with chainsaws for the day
It’s funny how he thinks he keeps his personal opinions out of his columns, and that because some rabid hard right-wingers call him a Labour lackey this makes him balanced and middle-of-the-road.
Ah well, he’s good for laugh, at least.
From the symbolim is often useful file:
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2012/05/12/bush-convicted-of-war-crimes-in-absentia/
‘symbolism’
damn coffee deficiency
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/23/bush.iraq/
Also this from ITCCS:
1. On February 25, 2013, a lawfully constituted Common Law Court of Justice found Elizabeth Windsor, Queen of England and Head of State of Canada and its churches, guilty as charged of Crimes against Humanity in Canada and of engaging in a Criminal Conspiracy to conceal Genocide. The same verdict found Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper guilty of the same offenses.
‘No, no!’ said the Queen. ‘Sentence firstâverdict afterwards.’
But their wild exultation was suddenly checked
When the jailer informed them, with tears,
Such a sentence would have not the slightest effect,
As the pig had been dead for some years.
Good on Angela for getting the double mastectomy: http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/wellbeing/8673976/Pitt-praises-heroic-Jolie
It’s a pity such preventative surgery and follow up reconstructive surgery isn’t available to 95% of Americans.
Is preventative surgery of that sort available in the public system in NZ, or anywhere? Unless you’re paying for it yourself it seems like radical surgery when you do not in fact have cancer, would be a big ask.
http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/i-d-rather-alive-double-mastectomy-patient-5437153
No indication that it was not done on the public’s dime.
I don’t know one way or the other, but I suspect it would be covered in NZ for very high-risk patients, because it’s cheaper in the long-run than waiting for the breast cancer to develop. Not just in terms of the treatment itself, but for the individual: they can schedule time off work and get the operation done when it is convenient for them, rather than getting a cancer diagnosis and having to drop everything with short notice.
Hi folks!
Heard this?
Was interviewed for Radio NZ Morning Report (played on air at 8am Wednesday 15 May 2013) on the failure of the GCSB to ‘confirm or deny’ whether I was one of the 88 New Zealanders unlawfully spied upon by the GCSB.
(As was Val Morse – who got the same GCSB reply).
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2555103/gcsb-refuses-to-tell-people-if-they've-been-illegally-spied-on.asx
Her Warship đ
Penny Bright
2013 Auckland Mayoral candidate
http://www.occupyaucklandvsaucklandcouncilappeal.org.nz
http://www.dodgyjohnhasgone.com
Sailing the Se7en CSBees
I heard that, Penny. You were clear and very persuasive, as was Valerie Morse. I was concerned by the wording used by the 8 o’clock news on Radio NZ National this morning to describe the GCSB’s criminal activities. Noting that this organization has been spying on New Zealand citizens, the newsreader intoned: “It is currently illegal.”
Next time someone shoots a policeman, I look forward to hearing the news-readers inform us that “murder is currently illegal.”
Yeah, you were solid Penny – “Show me the bloody filing cabinet and give me five minutes……” – (more or less what you said, agreed ?) – Great soundbite !
Haven’t heard from BM or that fulla whose name starts with G. Must have been like a good blast from a can of Raid to the likes of them. On their backs…….Bzzzzzz.
Australian Budget
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/8672592/?
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/5/15/economy/aust-needs-immense-adjustment-garnaut?
http://www.trust.org/item/20130514100022-j5ac6/?source=search
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=23907
“serial liars”
g888. The Oz Fed Govt has written a fiscally tight budget in order to gain confidence.
Gain the confidence of whom is always the unasked question. Certainly not of the unemployed or the median worker.
It is always pandering to the banksters, the investing class, the ratings agencies. It appears that they are the only true constituency Oz Labour responds to. They have no alternative thinking framework or vision.
On a bigger scale, a massive reorganisation of our political economy is needed – paid employment and economic growth are things transitioning into the past. Energy depletion and the limits of our debt based money system which we have now reached has made sure of that.
3 x class flares on the sun and a cme in one day.
http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/13may13/cme_anim2.GIF?PHPSESSID=tov4qiab2jpfhf7qm4lohulqj0
Not a good time to have investments in energy or telecommunications.
Interesting; I was just saying to my friend over Chardie yesterday why I collect hard-copy lit. and sounds; always.
I would not have much confidence in reliance on either wireless or mobile communications,this risks are very high for 4g.
As an aside I wonder if there is much importance in the spectrum sales in the budget.
at present the Interplanetary Magnetic field is in its southern aspect ie shields down.
http://spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html
I think its a mistake we no longer have wind up gramaphones…independent of power cuts, internet hiccups and hard drive corruption.
Fragile complex systems
I’d be very surprised if private investors will lose out should the power grid get damaged. They will of course expect the taxpayer to pay for repairs, expect the company to borrow for repairs or just sell their 49% quick as possible. Money for nothing ‘investors’ only like to ‘gamble’ on a sure thing with a rigged deck.
We’re not all like that, some of us are in for the long run as well as proactively ensuring the assets stay in NZ hands.
Glad to hear there’s one who won’t mind foregoing their dividends if the grid gets whacked, how many others would I wonder.
“ensuring the assets stay in NZ hands.”
Just as long as they’re not in the hands of those who already owned them before they were stolen by the greedy.
Spanish poaching
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/15/world/europe/as-crime-rises-spains-farmers-patrol-their-land.html?_r=0
More on the role of “religion” , to come.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-to-punish-men-for-converting-woman-to-christianity-8613463.html
Well – what recent events does this case remind you of?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10883787
A senior Airways Corporation manager who won her job back after she was sacked for a boozy night when she got “lippy” with staff and gave one of them “the finger” has been awarded $7000 as a contribution to her legal costs.
…
She was found to have been unjustifiably dismissed and the company was ordered to reinstate her, although she was not awarded any payment due to her contribution to the situation.
Today, Mr Dumbleton ordered the company to pay Ms Dumble $7000 as a contribution to her legal costs and a further $385 for administration costs.
I wonder whether Gilmore has read this? And Riches, as employment law is one of his specialities.
The names changed to protect the record I imagine?
LOL – I did not even notice the similarity etc. But no, no name changes.
Here is the actual determination from the link in the Herald article
http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/document/pdf/201320/2013_NZERA_Auckland_169.pdf
And here’s another gem – more relevant to Aaron Gilmore perhaps.
For all Employees Who Work with Rude Customers – An award should go to the West Jet gate attendant in Kelowna, British Columbia for being smart and funny, while making her point, when confronted with a passenger who probably deserved to fly as cargo.
A crowded flight was cancelled after West Jet’s 737 had been withdrawn from service. A single attendant was re-booking a long line of inconvenienced travelers.
Suddenly an angry passenger pushed his way to the desk. He slapped his ticket down on the counter and said, “I HAVE to be on this flight and it HAS to be FIRST CLASS”.
The attendant replied, “I’m sorry, sir. I’ll be happy to try to help you, but I’ve got to help these people first, and I’m sure we’ll be able to work something out.”
The passenger was unimpressed. He asked loudly, so that the passengers behind him could hear, “DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA WHO I AM?”
Without hesitating, the attendant smiled and grabbed her public address microphone: “May I have your attention please; may I have your attention please,â she began – her voice heard clearly throughout the terminal. “We have a passenger here at Gate 14 WHO DOES NOT KNOW WHO HE IS. If anyone can help him find his identity, please come to Gate 14.”
With the folks behind him in line laughing hysterically, the man glared at the attendant, clenched his teeth and said, “F….You!”
Without flinching, she smiled and said, (I love this bit) “I’m sorry, sir, but you’ll have to get in line for that, too.”
Wonderful self possession and sense of humour. Brilliant Jenny.
Mr Dumbleton ? Ms Dumble ? about a case that showed her the Dumbledore then :-))
I found in Jingo that Terry Pratchett has envisaged a strapped-for-cash economy in Ankh-Morpork. To a question of how that could be, ‘Don’t we pay our taxes?’ Lord Vetinari notes –
Guild of Assassins – Gross earnings in the last year: AM$13,207,048. Taxes paid in the last year: AM$47.22 pence, and
The Guild of Accountants – gross earnings AM$7,999,011. Taxes paid: nil. But, ah yes, I see they applied for a rebate of AM$200,000.’
(I have left out the matter of the Hershebian half-dong as irrelevant.)
And was Terry thinking of NZ perhaps? He writes that Lord Vetinari made the analogy – ‘Taxation gentlemen is very much like dairy farming. The task is to extract the maximum amount of milk with the minimum of moo. And I am afraid to say that these days all I get is moo.’
‘Are you telling us that Ankh-Morpork is bankrupt?’ says one of the nobles.
‘Of course. While, at the the same time, full of rich people.’
Yes Terry Pratchett’s scenario has a lot of vision for us, if we care to study and absorb it. Makes
more sense than much of the words around today.
Yesterday vto raised the perceived issue of some people talking about the treaty being accused of racism. S/he referred to a Natrad panel discussion on Constitutional review. Turns out the person that asked the question that vto was interested in was John Ansell, and Ansell asked the question in a hijacking for his own agenda kind of way. Which is probably why the panelists refused to answer.
Here’s the conversation http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-14052013/#comment-632878
The bit about Ansell is here http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-14052013/#comment-633276
Sorry vto, but I feel that not only did you misrepresent what happened in the panel discussion, but you misled us in the conversation yesterday. Was that intentional? We talked about being explicit about our politics, but I don’t feel like you were. Now the question for me becomes, do you align yourself with Ansell, and is that the background context I need to understand your comments about Te Tiriti and racism in this country?
Thanks for following this up weka. It sounded pretty strange yesterday – I thought maybe someone had cracked a weak joke and thus it is so – ansell is a weak joke and I’d be pretty disappointed if vto was a follower of his. I think a list of what vto wants to discuss regarding Te Tiriti may be a good option and I hope vto provides one. We need to keep conversing about the subject but somehow with some people it ends up being a too-ing and fro-ing around issues that aren’t issues at all, except for them.
vto I hope you reply. My view of your view vto is that you think,
1 the Treaty is historical and a new one needs to be drafted to take into consideration the multicultural aspect of NZ society.
2 too much emphasis (money) is on tangata whenua and that they have received enough emphasis (money)
3 MÄori were the first here and that could be called indigenous but it is irrelevant in today’s world
4 MÄori are inherently violent and warlike
5 No one represents the ‘white man’ who gets abuse and derision when they say something that others perceive as racist
6 Non-MÄori who talk about race get accused of being racist
7 MÄori are racist to ‘white people’
8 Celts were here before MÄori and taught them everything of what they know until MÄori killed them all
9 The chinese bought slave-wives here to breed with MÄori
10 Barry Brailsford doesn’t talk shit
I know, there is one joke one, but which one…
Anyway that list isn’t a dig at you vto – it’s to show that I listen to what you say/write.
The plot thickens.
or curdles.
Why is Fa’afoi not asking questions of Tolley?
Isn’t that his gig as police spokesperson and isn’t he an ex hard nosed journo/press sec extraordinaire?
Sitting there grinning like a churlish baboon isn’t a good look eh!…it’s bloody tolley for fucks sake.
Hardly the sharpest hammer in the shed…
http://inthehouse.co.nz/node/18501
Major oil companies raided as part of an investigation into price fixing.
After the Libor bank manipulations, it’ll be interesting to see where this investigation goes.
From the Globe & Mail:
Al Jazeera:
Innocent til proven guilty….will be watching.
Latest Roy Morgan bounces again. Labour up 0.5% to 32% and Greens up 1% to 12, National down to 44%. According to this it is all locked up …
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/national-party-now-dead-level-with-labour-greens-201305150221
[lprent: added charts. Don’t like that GCR. ]
A consistent downward trend for the National Party. Get the tiny violins out đ
Well, locked up not putting NZ1 in either camp.
[Oh noes – only half a percent recovery! Labour isn’t going anywhere! I just shit my pants! Another 50 years of neoliberalism unless Shearer resigns NOW! /sarc]
“[Oh noes – only half a percent recovery! Labour isn’t going anywhere! I just shit my pants! Another 50 years of neoliberalism unless Shearer resigns NOW! /sarc]”
Mate, you got the suck up blues bad, or you’re on commission, or both đ
Great recovery Labour, eighteen more months and you might be on what Clark got in 08.
You rock, monsters of politics.
33.99%?
Beaten that three times this year. Up from zero times last year. But labour’s obviously going nowhere in the polls…
And not reaching them now is a good thing, how?
Just take the medicine and no more blues (see what I did there?)
“But labourâs obviously going nowhere in the polls⊔
Yeah, and going nowhere near victory either.
I see what you did, and it’s stupid.
I’ll take your:
and add a dose of reality from roymorgan:
“Too close to call” is viewed through your shit-coloured spectacles to read “nowhere near victory”.
You feel that groundswell of Labour support gripping the nation?
Every change of government has one. Where’s Yours and David’s?
You hope more than you say anything with genuine confidence.
Nope.
I think the polls show that voters are slowly regaining trust in labour and keeping trust in the greens.
I expect the momentum to build with the campaign period as the climax.
I think you interpret based on hope, not the word on the street.
23% before the 2011 election.
32% now.
Three out of ten voters, given the shocking government we have, is hardly worth boasting about.
Yes, because everyone in nz follows politics as closely as you or I.
Sarcasm aside, who’s boasting? I just think that fuck all to “too close too call” in half a term isn’t cause for dismay.
Fuck you’re hilarious McFlock. You are overconfident on Labour/Shearer and I expect you to be softening up and backpedaling on them big time next year. Btw where was Labour in the Roy Morgan 12-18 months before the last election? That’s the obvious comparison you’ve avoided.
not avoided at all.
Where were the greens?
Where had Labour come from in 2008?
Contrast with now.
you better remind yourself of what Labour got in the Roy Morgan in 2007, the year before elections, if you want to compare apples with apples.
And no, Shearer Labour hasn’t beaten that 3x so far.
The Roymorgan poll at the start of 2007 that had 41%? True.
The one at the end of 2007 that had 34.5%? Also true – beaten once, equalled twice this year.
In 2007 Labour was going down.
In 2013 Labour is going up.
And what were the Greens getting in that period, compared to now?
The difference is that in 2007 this was the assessment from the pollster:
Always nice to see an optimistic viewpoint. The NZLP is pretty much bouncing along in the 30-35% range. Just as they have for every period since the 2008 election except for a couple of months prior to the 2011 election and in the honeymoon just after the 2008 election..
Since 2008, the Greens and NZ First have risen. National has descended from their 2009 highs. A few National coalition partners have been rediscovering what oblivion means. The Labour caucus is doing bugger all compared to the same time in the last election cycle – and they bloody well lost that one. Look at the graph again.
The Labour caucus hasn’t made any discernible traction compared to this time (mid-2010) in the last electoral cycle. Indeed their polling performance looks like a repeat of mid-2010. No real hits on National.
The best that you can say is that they have managed to reverse their 2011 slide towards oblivion. On an more optimistic note, they seemed to have finally managed to stop having dickhead scandals from oversized egos making fools of themselves that were pissing me off so much from 2009-2011. I think that most of the self-inflicted injury fools are now gone (apart from Shane Jones).
But the caucus seems to be both uninspired, uninspiring, intensely reactive and don’t seem to understand the concept of preparedness strategy (ie looking at how to sell the damn things). The kiwibuild policy was curiously unfinished and like the Nats seems to have ignored the realities of the Auckland environment (where the biggest systemic housing issues are). Basically we don’t need more 3 bedroom homes on a section or shoebox central city student apartments here. What we need is to provide the types of housing that gets the ever increasing numbers of elderly, couples with no kids, and singletons out of family homes into something more suitable – which is where the housing shortage is. What we got was a policy that looked ok for Wellington where it may be possible to build a 3 bedroom house on section for $300k within 10 kilometres of the CBD.
The power purchasing policy was better. But they appear to have not thought through the obvious downstream implications of such a policy shift, and they wound up backing away from it – which really was a bit of a disaster.
In the first 18 months from 2008 there are half a dozen or so mid to high twenties in your 30-35% range.
And they started in the mid thirties.
This election period, the picture is quite different. But you need to move through 32 to get from 27 to 38 or 40.
Yep, having started from a low base, the LP, under Shearer, is doing better than average. Anything above 35% on polling day means a change of Government (assuming the Greens maintain double figures), so a consistant 30% plus is a good platform to launch an election campaign from.
If Shearer can maintain polling in the low to mid thirties till the election and the party membership can fight for more progressive policies such as NZPower and Kiwibuild to be the centrepoint of Labour’s election platform, I see no reason why we won’t have a terrific result on election day.
As an aside, I think Labour may not ever go above the 30’s again. That’s due to MMP and the effective job the Greens are doing keeping their vote at around 10%. That’s actually not a problem at all, because the right may never be able to muster a majority again, particularly now that they have effectively destroyed the Conservative Party’s chances by opting not to lower the 5% threshold.
McFlock: I accept that given the strength of the Government’s recent performances, the outstanding economic and employment growth the nation is experiencing, the satisfaction people have with the status quo, and the lack of confidence sapping scandals within National, it is of course going to be difficult for Labour to poll much above 32% or so.
If only we had a National Government which truly sucked at governing and which demonstrated a venal and short sighted nature to everything they did, Labour would have a chance of gaining more traction in the polls.
It’s such a shame that the people who know with such certainty how labour could have been at <50% in the polls by now do not have the political competence to achieve that popularity within their own party.
One of the tragic mysteries of history, no doubt.
Yeah it’s a shame, but you’re ok with it.
well, you know my philosophy – get the fuck over it, assess the situation, work with what you have.
I mean, it’s not as fun as railing against the injustices of the weather, but the end result is usually better for everyone.
“assess the situation, work with what you have.”
Missed this first time around with all the lolling.
At least 68% in that poll have, and thought fuck off with that.
Yes.
Because MMP encourages coalitions. That’s how it works.
National has no friends. At best they have the vagaries of Peters.
Understanding that this is not an excuse for weak ass performance and policy.
Too close to call, that
“National has no friends. At best they have the vagaries of Peters.”
Another way of saying that is ‘At best they have enough friends to trounce Labour and the Greens and Mana.’
Best not think about it like that though. Let’s just pretend Winston will gracefully bow out too.
No.
Best just say “too close to call”.
lolz.
yeah just remember that the current Labour leadership ain’t no force of nature
And yet the railing here seems as effective as if it were.
Why is that? Might you not be quite so familiar with political realities as you think?
Condescension? Oh I guess you’ve really hurting my feelings now.
No.
Just pointing out that if you were half as good at influencing labour as you expect labour to be at influencing the polls, this debate would have ended months ago.
Those that can’t, criticise, I guess.
Even more condescension? Now you’re just being a little prick.
Btw “influencing Labour” lol
why is that a lol?
If you know what it takes to win the votes of more than a million people, surely you can persuade a few thousand. Or a couple of dozen.
“the people who know with such certainty how labour could have been at <50% in the polls by now do not have the political competence to achieve that popularity within their own party."
Can't believe you write that stuff. I'm not picking on you, just find it hard when you mention political incompetence and still back Labour and Shearer.
It's a lolfest sometimes.
Yep, you missed the point, which was:
if you guys could do any better than the current caucus, why haven’t you managed to get Labour to sing to your songsheet? Why are you gnashing your teeth here, rather than your advice being adopted as the Labour playbook?
I missed nothing, just ignored the meaningless.
Labour can do one. I don’t trust them, at all.
I fear a Shearer government will be so bad, they’ll end the party as a political force for good.
It’s close already.
If they are too politically incompetent to win in 2014, why do you fear it?
Lol – this has been fun, but I’m off for a few hours.
“If they are too politically incompetent to win in 2014, why do you fear it?”
What bit don’t you understand? He’s a shit leader, he’s got a shit shadow front bench, and he shits on Labour’s core values.
That’s not a recipe that fills me with confidence, in fact, the way he’s gone about the job for 18 months, it should be filling with fear and dread every hardcore lefty voter, well those that haven’t bloated themselves with false hope that is.
McFlock is lost in a world of mediocre is good enough because it will probably get over the line. The resulting quality of government and leadership he’s relying on the Greens to provide.
I won’t give up on him.
Deep down he’s a green vote and/or a hurray for Cunliffe.
He just doesn’t know it yet đ
But if they’re too incompetent to win, there’s nothing to fear.
And I like coalition governments. It means there’s no point in developing saviour obsessions over a single politician. Too easy to make a fuhrer, sort of thing.
A completely unprovoked, unforced self Godwin. Awesome.
Nah.
I just have trust issues putting that much faith in one politician.
Especially one who’s said he’ll serve out the term on the back bench.
Your trust issues are why you made a Nazi Germany reference?
Can you think of a better example of people putting faith in the future of a nation on one person ?
I’d like it if all parties went the coleader route, frankly. Maybe even coprime ministers.
“But if theyâre too incompetent to win, thereâs nothing to fear.”
Like you’ve pointed out, despite a truly horrible government, Labour may be able to form a government. This mathematical possibility doesn’t make them winners, nor does it suggest they will form a competent, cohesive force.
“Too easy to make a fuhrer, sort of thing.”
From messiah to fuhrer in two evenings of debate.
No doubt tomorrow you’ll be fixating on Diablo.
“Can you think of a better example of people putting faith in the future of a nation on one person ?”
đ @ the Elephant with offshore accounts in the room.
Yes, I do think your fixation on a single politician is unhealthy.
But I wouldn’t go as far as the devil – I merely think he is human.
That’s why I like MMP. It’s like a miniature separation of powers, so no one person is in sole charge.
“Yes, I do think your fixation on a single politician is unhealthy.
But I wouldnât go as far as the devil â I merely think he is human.”
Though to be fair, read back and I mention cunliffe once at the end of the exchange, with a smiley. You bring up him or the notion of saving politicians more than any one on here.
That’s a little odd.
“Thatâs why I like MMP. Itâs like a miniature separation of powers, so no one person is in sole charge.”
That’ll be news to JK
After you bring up Cunliffe.
After saying you are afraid that a shearer government would be so bad it’d “end the party as a political force for good.”
Not really. Otherwise he wouldn’t have needed a cup of tea.
“After you bring up Cunliffe.”
I dispute that in this exchange, and I dispute in others on the standard, some I’ve not even been party to.
I suggest you’re far more occupied with DC than I am with DS.
“After saying you are afraid that a shearer government would be so bad itâd âend the party as a political force for good.â
See point one in response to the name cunliffe.
“Not really. Otherwise he wouldnât have needed a cup of tea.”
Now that’s just silly, seeing how minority Labour would be in government. Like was pointed out, we know how mmp works, that’s why we voted to keep it.
Key is in charge of the government. Who is is in charge of the opposition?
Oh, you dispute it? That’s just super.
Any specifics, like linking to the comment where I mentioned Cunliffe in this thread before you did?
“Oh, you dispute it? Thatâs just super.”
Any one is free to to look through this thread and deduce which time you went on about saviours and fuhrers and when I mentioned Cunliffe with a smiley, in an exchange with CV that was about you being a lost cause. Post up the findings here and it’s a done deal.
They could also, should they be so enthused, go check comments in other topics, including ones where I have not even commented. There they will find the mere mention of ds being shit, is met somewhat awkwardly by comments about messiahs and deities.
I’m not a researcher, or that petty, but it’s all there in black and white should any one feel the need.
I wouldn’t say it if it weren’t truthful or I could be caught out.
Some call it integrity, I, self preservation.
smiley shmiley.
Many a
truehonest word is said in jest.You brought him into the debate.
edit: and if you’re petty enough to make the claim, you should be petty enough to back it up.
In reply to my mate
“McFlock is lost in a world of mediocre is good enough because it will probably get over the line. The resulting quality of government and leadership heâs relying on the Greens to provide.”
Actually in this instance, it was my you’ll hurray for cunliffe that sparked the fuhrer jibe, despite never once proving a link between a competent would be leader and peoples (my) support and belief in his industry being any form of demagoguery, but you concede from previous form, I’m correct on point two. đ
“petty”
For writing
“Deep down heâs a green vote and/or a hurray for Cunliffe.” đ
Did I call cunliffe a demagogue?
Don’t get me wrong, I definitely think that your “support and belief in his industry” has escalated to unhealthy levels of Cunliffe being labour’s only hope, to the degree that you’ve suggested that a 2014 labour victory without Cunliffe as leader (sorry, “with Shearer in charge” – the elephant in the room being who would replace shearer) would permanently destroy labour as a political force.
But ANY obsessional faith in ANY political leader gives me the willies, no matter how benign the person they place their trust in might apparently be. Because it usually ends rather messily, and as far as I know no utopia has ever come out of it.
To be absolutely explicit, I was not calling Cunliffe a demagogue.
I was calling you an obsessional follower. And as soon as our political support is guided by passions rather than rational assessments of the people and issues, that’s when bad things can happen.
So it’s lucky that MMP necessitates cooperation between parties and their alphas.
“Donât get me wrong, I definitely think that your âsupport and belief in his industryâ has escalated to unhealthy levels of Cunliffe being labourâs only hope, to the degree that youâve suggested that a 2014 labour victory without Cunliffe as leader (sorry, âwith Shearer in chargeâ â the elephant in the room being who would replace shearer) would permanently destroy labour as a political force.”
Quoted for posterity.
One day they’ll look back at this post and say, now that’s what I call insight. đ
nope.
in
tenfive years it’ll be as relevant as Clive Matthewson.But I tell you what, if Labour get elected with Shearer as leader, do another round of asset sales and plummet to single-digit popularity, I’ll buy you a beer.
Lost cause mate. Labour’s core support has settled at somewhere around 30% or so.
That number isn’t changing significantly in either direction and the rest of the population doesn’t give a fuck about Labour, either because they never have or because they’ve given up.
Maybe.
If so, that just leaves more room for the Greens and Mana.
“maybe”
No fucking maybe about it. There’s tumble weeds blowing through caucus.
Then that just leaves more room for the greens and mana.
And a growing irrelevance for Labour. Good of you to agree that expectations are low.
Learn to read.
Oh and yeah, one more rogue poll to add to the list.
Nope. Another datapoint to add to the trend.
Nope. Consistent evidence of inability to capitalise.
0.5% is a bounce now?
Can’t set the bar too high.
Be fair CV, they’ve only been at it for a term and a half. Give them another six months eh?
We all know the definition of madness – doing same old, expecting different.
There is no point expecting anything new from the polls, because nothing new is happening.
1) Government continues to fuck up and/or piss people off, whether on serious matters (MRP, GCSB) or headline-making trivia (Aaron Gilmore, Key’s brain farts).
2) Leader of the opposition continues to say “Oh, look, bottom line is, the government – in terms of fucking off – er, up – it is pissing – Labour is – National in terms of Labour is – I mean, look, they are …” (continues until audience dies screaming).
It dosn’t matter how many times National drop the ball, Shearer can’t pick it up. He doesn’t have it, we all know this, and the only rebuttal is “yes, but let’s pretend and hope”. So Labour will bounce around in the polls, going nowhere much until the campaign proper gets under way, in 2014. Then the PM-in-waiting will either (a) fall apart or (b) rise to the occasion.
Not much point debating which of the two will happen. One is based on daily evidence we can all see, the other is based on horoscopes, or something.
Voters are definitely leaving National. And they’re definitely not choosing Labour/Shearer.
We have a by-election soon. What plans do Labour greens etc have for getting out the vote? I know by- elections are usually poorly attended but wouldn’t it make a good practice run for 2014? So many non voters to be enticed?
Doesn’t need a practice run, minimise the spend on it, just enough effort to win.
edit – Greens might want a practice run, Labour can competently do this kind of thing in its sleep.
“So Labour will bounce around in the polls, going nowhere much until the campaign proper gets under way, in 2014. Then the PM-in-waiting will either (a) fall apart or (b) rise to the occasion.”
Do you really think that the few loyal labour supporters that are left, are going to have the patience to see if Shearer dies in a metaphorical ditch, and then what, Parker? Robertson?? jumps in the saddle, and lets the polls carry on their flat line?
New chair is another sign the gummint will be hocking off Air NZ soon.
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10883668
The way they’re rushing all this makes me think of a desperate garage sale. Next up, an old lamp, used underwear and some family photos. Oh, and NZ’s soul.
http://boingboing.net/2013/05/13/53-years-of-nuclear-tests-as-e.html
after watching this presentation,
no-one could blame you for wanting off this deranged little world
Good news! Labour proposes repeal of National government
LOL!
Particularly liked the last two sentences in the final quote..
âWell itâs certainly bold,â he said. âI mean itâs an extremely impressive policy and I think itâs something that a lot of people have been holding out for. But I just canât fathom why any government would ever want to repeal a previous one. It leaves them with no one to blame.â
Excellent speech from Hone in today’s General Debate – slams the Maori Party for supporting the Charter Schools Bill:
That’s what the fuss is all about.
I do not know whether this was mentioned before, but since yesterday, TV3 news seem to have entered a war of arguments between Unite Union and McDonalds, where a lasting employment dispute about wages, hours and minimum wage payment requirements is ongoing.
Naturally like most MSM stupid and crap media like to focus on, the REAL issues are NOT reported on at all. Somehow a comment by senior Unite leader Mike Treen and others seems to have caught their main focus now. Some comments that the police breaking up a picket line outside the McDonald’s restaurant on Queen St may have been to ensure clientele to enter the fast food restaurant, seems to have been taken issue with.
The police now dispute that their intervention was to ensure discounted burgers or other food for themselves, and they have little else to say. Treen though made clear that a picket is there of right by protesting and striking workers, so that allows them to perhaps discourage clientele to go and enter McDonald’s.
The police have another story, of course, and they deny having interfered for cheap discounted food. Naturally I would think the police are correct on that, but they have a dismal point of justification, facing new media coverage on TV3 tonight and yesterday, proving police and certain other professional groups get heavily discounted services all the time.
So we have cops that start on a “starting wage” at 50 k per annum, that have low waged, soon underpaid (new minimum wage earners at youth rates) workers at McDonald’s “enhance” their lifestyles, to get all kinds of cheap perks they can.
NO wonder these cops largely vote National, and some of them have the bloody audacity to complain, leave the country and work for higher paid jobs in Australia and the UK!
Maori and Pasifica, same as others affected, will bear this in mind, that they are beaten up, locked up and treated like shit by an elite force of mercenaries, that even deny workers a fair pay. So much for foot soldiers and mercenaries, to protect McDonalds and others from the deserved voice and power of workers they rely on. SHAME ON THIS, NZ!-